Three blind mice,

See if they choke,

they traded for Allen and Garnett,

they still have not proved anything yet,

they are in position to be upset,

three blind mice!

Question: Who do you want to take the critical shot?

KG- Not me, let Ray take it!

Paul Pierce- Not me, Let Ray take it!

Ray Allen- Not me, let someone get open!

Give Ray credit for taking those shots in game 6. He built us somethint nice:

 

                                                    

Thank goodness for James Posey, the only Celtic who has performed in the close games in this series.

Obviously there have been 3 blowouts so far and Boston is home today, so Boston fans have to feel confident......or is there just a little fear there?

In other news, Lakers start their series against Utah, I will skip the breakdown. Lakers in 6 with each team winning at least 1 on the road.

                              

 

 

 

This is going to be a great series. These are two teams that mirror eachother in their work ethic and professionalism. I did not pick either team to reach this round. I was greatly impressed with New Orleans domination of the Mavericks. I think the Suns pretty much sh1t the bed against the Spurs. I am going to have to break down the matchups to make sense of this one.

Point Guard- Tony Parker is a great point guard. In fact I would rank him 3rd among NBA point guards. When you factor in his playoff experience it is hard not to rate him as the number one point guard once the playoffs begin. Chris Paul has been a revelation. He has been the most dominant point gaurd I have seen since Magic Johnson. He makes his teammates so much better it is sick. I am giving a slight edge to Paul in this one, he just finished tearing J Kidd a new one and I think he is ready to go right at Parker. Yeah I know Bowen will be defending him, but I will get into that part later. Slight edge to Hornets

Shooting Guard- Manu Ginobli v Morris Peterson- Manu is one of the most dynamic players in the NBA. When he goes off, the Spurs win. Morris Petersen has been a journeyman player. He is a decent defender, has a subpar shot, can still finish a little bit. Anything he gets will be a gift from CP3. Huge Edge Spurs

Small Forward- Bruce Bowen v Peja Stojakavic- Bowen's defense of Chris Paul may be the key to the entire series. If he can effectively contain Paul, then the Spurs go on to win the series in a walk. After having just abused 2 time MVP Steve Nash, he should be primed and ready to do this right? We will see, I consider Chris Paul a much tougher cover than Steve Nash at this point. Peja is known to us Laker fans as a deadly outside shooter who could never make the shot at the end of the game in the playoffs. I think this still pretty much accurate. But with Chris Paul and David West having the stones to take the ball at the end, his accurate shooting in the first 3 quarters may help provide the cushion that the Hornets will need if they are going to win games. Even

Power Forward- Duncan v West- this is a strange matchup in that these players will not guard eachother. Mainly because neither man can, and both coaches will protect their primary post up threat from fouls. Duncan is the big fundemental and still has plenty of gas left in the tank. He had some amazing games against the Suns and should do the same thing here. West has continued to provide toughness, a silky 15 footer and yeoman's work in the paint. He has been steady in the playoffs as well. Edge Spurs.

Center- Tyson Chandler surprised me last round. He did not disappear in the face fo the physical play of Bass and Dampier. In fact, he was outstanding. He is playing with energy and enthusiasm. He has also showed his mettle under fire. Oberto is a serviceable player who works hard finishes easy plays and listens to his coach and teammates. Kurt Thomas will be on the floor during the key minutes anyway. Edge Hornets

Coach- Popovich is the best coach in the NBA over the past 10 years. The plays that set up Finley and Duncan for open 3's at the end of game 1 attest to that. So do 4 titles and a decade of excellence. Pop's gameplan in game 3 took the Suns heart, exposed their flaws and put th series away. So this has to be an advantage for the Spurs right? Dont be so hasty, I made my points about B Scott here http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/SoCalF4N/2008/02/28/Byron_Scott_the_most_underrated_coach_in_the_NBA

He has been through playoff wars as a player and a coach, he been to the finals twice as a coach. His demeaner, toughness, belief and constancy were a huge part of the Hornets victory over wide eyed Avery Johnson's Mavericks. Call me crazy but I call this matchup Even.

Bench- The Hornets have a number of live bodies but their key reserves are Pargo and Wells. Wells will be a huge X factor in this series. IF he can provide some quality defense against Ginobli, IF he can provide some post up points in the paint, he could swing this series either way. The Hornets have a collection of live bodies with question marks on the bench if 1 or 2 of them emerge against the mostly unathletic Spurs, it could provide another key advantage. Becasue I listed Ginobli as a starter (to me the guy who plays the last 5 minutes of a close game is the starter), I am not listing him as a bench player. The Spurs players who should see minutes in this series are Finley, Barry, Thomas, Udoka and Vaughn. Of these players only Udoka has the opportunity to match the Hornets energy. Finley showed he still has a little left. So lets just say this one is Even.

Other Factors: Hornets have Home court. The Spurs are truly great. Ginobli Parker and Duncan are the real big 3, forget those blind mice in Boston. These guys are clutch, tough, professional you get the idea. The Hornets are the new kids, they should be just happy to be here, they should be intimidated by the stage and the opposition. They should go quietly in 5 or 6 games. Or should they? Maybe the Spurs really are old, maybe the Suns sucked so hard they made the Spurs look better than they currently are. Maybe the Hornets aren't just happy to be here. Maybe they are going to attack the Spurs, expose their injuries and deficiencies. Maybe Ginobli's body is not strong enough to completely take over, maybe Bowen cannot keep up with Paul. Yeah, I have nothing but maybes here, so my pick has to be HORNETS IN SEVEN!!!!!!!!!!!

That's right I have lost my mind, I just broke this thing down and it showed me that even with my generous interpretations that the Spurs should win. But that is why I am an idiot blogger and not a professional. GO HORNETS!!!!!

 

This game symbolizes the entire Suns run of the last 4 years.  They have every opportunity to win but instead make 4 turnovers in the last 2 minutes to seal a loss that should never of been.  Whether it is the coaching of Mike D:

 'Hi, I like to go to Diaw twice in the last minute, first time he threw it out of bounds, the second time he made a nice post up basket... too bad we were trailing by 3 and still did not deny Ginobli the ball even though San Antonio gave us plenty of time to do so. I wonder if I will be better than Isiah in New York?'

The stellar play of the 2 time MVP in the last 4 minutes:

 ' I am the two time MVP, I turn the ball over 3 times in the final 2 minutes of a 1 point playoff elimination game. Maybe next year we can win 60 games, get eliminated by the Spurs and I can win another MVP.'

Or the disappearance of their most dominant player:

 'was I even on the floor in the final minutes?'

The only thing I can say is don't blame this guy:

 'I don't know why Pop kept having them foul me, Mike D is the greatest coach I have ever played for.'

 

I must of been on crack when I picked them to win this series.

 

Where do the Suns go from here? I think we have that answer. All of their money is tied up with two past their prime superstars. It would be nice if Shaq could have a great off season and come back ready to play, but at his age, I think we saw his last gasp. He might have something left if say the Suns are the 8 seed next year playing against the Lakers as a 1. But other than that, He has had a great career and can no longer maintain his physical health over the course of the season.

Mike D has had his chance, his team melted down twice in San Antonio and got rolled up at home. Ultimately the head coach is responsible for that. His style is played out here, it is time to move on. His style is entertaining and he should find employment, but he cannot stand across from Popovich when it counts, that should be clear at this point.

Steve Nash has had a great career, but physically he is slowing, 2 years ago he was considered by some to be the premier point guard in the league, now I don't think that a title contender would want him starting for them. He is that much of a defensive liability and his offensive prowess is declining.

Amare Stoudemire still has unlimited potential. He dominated this series at times, so much so that I still think the Suns should of won this series. But remember, Phoenix wanted to trade him for KG in the off season. He, along with Barbosa and Diaw are the core the Suns will need to build around in the future.

So the only question that remains in my mind is that do the Suns blow it up now? Or do they sign one more veteran for the 5 mill exception, reload and roll the dice?

I don't think they can blow it up right now. I don't think you can get value for Nash. I know you can't give Shaq away. Are you going to trade Amare? That would be just ridiculous, but it is the only way the Suns could truly shake things up.

Here's what I think will happen. Dantoni will be fired (maybe he ends up in Denver? that would be entertaining). And they will need to bring in a veteran coach to shake things up.

There is only one man I can think of that would of fit the bill, unfortunately he just relocated to Charlotte. Hell, I don't know what the Suns are going to do.....do you think Steve Kerr does?

I was never a Jason Kidd guy. I respected his toughness, passing ability and rebounding. I always had questions about his heart and his head. From the spousal abuse incident to the coach killing of Byron Scott, his character was in question. His jumper was always a question mark and his ability to perform in the clutch was never proved beyond a reasonable doubt.

 

After last nights brutal attempt to injure Janero Pargo, I am done with Kidd. I was ambivalent before, now it is solid. This is a bad guy. He grabbed Pargo by the neck while he was in the air and threw him head first towards the floor. If Pargo was not able to get his hands under him, we were about to witness the most despicable incident on the NBA court since the riot in Auburn Hills. Only Kermit Washington's infamous cheap shot of Rudy T ranks with this one in my opinion. I am just glad that this one did not have the same terrible consequences for Pargo.

I remember McHale's clothesline of Rambis back in the day, the two fouls did not compare. That play happened at full speed and was made to prevent a score. Kidd could of just held him down if he wanted to prevent a basket. Instead he threw Pargo head first toward the floor in anger and frustration. What a garbage dirty play!

Hope I did not mix up a matchup, I just wanted to go on record before reading all of your opinions:

Western Conference

 

Lakers v Nuggets- This is the closest thing to a sure thing in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs. The Lakers were 3-0 v Nuggets and match up with them very well. The Lakers depth will enable them to go on runs while the starters are on the bench, even if the starters play them straight up. Mellow getting xtra mellow the other night reminds me of Nicky V's famous 1-2-3 Cancun chant. Lamar is the perfect defender for Mellow, Kobe knows how to play against AI, Ira Newble will see some light to chase those two around. If Ariza and Bynum were healthy this would have been a sweep. Without them, I think the Lakers lose game 3.

 

Lakers win if: They play the way they are capable, they avoid major injuries.

  Nuggets win if: They go unconscious from the field and the Lakers fall apart.

 

  Prediction: Lakers in 5

 

  Houston V Jazz: This match up alone would guarantee compelling basketball in the first round. Just think we have 2 other great series in the first round alone. The overriding story will be whether or not Tmac can get out of the first round, which is really a shame because these are two great teams that play excellent defensive basketball. This should be a rough and tumble series that goes at least 6 games. NBA is worst pointed out to me that it is actually the Rockets that have home court. That made this series extremely hard to pick.

 

  Houston wins if:  Tmac fights back the demons to be a consistent in the final minutes. Rafer Alston raises his game to counter Deron Williams.

 

  Utah wins if: They can win one of the first 2 at Houston. Carlos Boozer scores consistently from the block. The shooters connect when Williams penetrates.

 

 Prediction: Utah in 7, yeah I am sticking with this one...homecourt to the Rockets is balanced by Rafer Alston Health issues.

  Hornets v Mavericks: I just finished watching the preview of this series in tonight's game. I think this game was huge for momentum going into the series and everything I thought about before it started played out before my eyes. This is the classic veteran vs rookie match up. The younger more talented team vs. the older more experienced team. Early on it looked like New Orleans was going to be able to step up and beat the Mavs on their home court. But the physicality of the Mavericks combined with the increased intensity of Jason Kidd overwhelmed the inexperienced Hornets. Tyson Chandler disappeared in the face of the fury of Brandon Bass the Bulk of Dampier. Clutch Veterans like Eddie Jones and Jason Terry made plays while Bonzi Wells and Peja played like the head cases we remember from playoffs past. This one hurts me because I am actually rooting for the Hornets. It will take more than CP3 and David West to beat the Mavs in a 7 game series, unfortunately they look to be the only ones who are going to show up. The only matchup where I see a decided advantage for the Hornets is at Coach. Maybe Byron can pull something to get Avery off kilter. Be sure to remember how much Kidd hates Scott, he will be especially motivated in this series.

 

  New Orleans will win if: CP3 can abuse Jason Kidd enough to break him mentally. David West plays great every game. Peja makes shots when they need them. Chandler does not disappear.

 

Mavericks will win if: They play physical bullying basketball. Dirk performs at the end of games. Jason Terry or Jerry Stackhouse heat up often enough to provide enough offense.

  Prediction: Mavs in 7

 

  Spurs v Suns: I have saved the best for last. This would have been an excellent conference finals, or if they would re-seed the east, this could have been your NBA finals this year. Both of these teams are major threats. The Spurs because well, they are the Spurs, you know who they are, I don't need to remind you. The Suns, well I stand corrected on this one. I thought the Shaq trade was a debacle, but when you view the Suns as an aging team that is taking a last stab at a championship (maybe another run next year but that is it), this was a bold move. And I have to admit the Suns are more of a threat to win the title this year than before the trade. The Suns are the worst possible match up for the Spurs. Having Shaq threatening the middle frees Stoudemire to dominate a game to his maximum potential. The Suns are now the more physical team. There was one more move made by the Suns that has had a nice impact on their team. That is the addition of Gordon Girecek. He is the classic example of a player who comes to the Suns and benefits from being around Steve Nash and playing in their system. He can't do much more than knock down open shots, but with the two big men in the middle and Nash running the point he is sure to get them. I know he is their 8th man, but before the Suns got him they only had 7 legitimate players and that was not enough. To beat the Suns, the Spurs are going to have to push the tempo. I think if they play their usual pace, they die on the boards. Parker is going to have to push the ball, Ginobli will have to play out of his mind and Duncan is going to have to play at his usual high level. But this time Duncan will not be able to rest on defense if D'antoni has any kind of clue about basketball. The Suns built this team to beat the Spurs, now we will see if their moves paid off.

 

  The Spurs will win if: Ginobli's hamstring is a red herring and he dominates play, Raja Bell cannot guard him if he is healthy. Tony Parker draws fouls from Shaq early after blowing by Nash all night long. Udoka has a coming out party and becomes the x factor.

The Suns will win if: Shaq stays out of foul trouble, Girecek, Hill and Bell hit their open shots, Amare continues to play the way he has since Shaq arrived.

 

  Prediction: Suns in 6

 

 I guess I can do the Eastern Conference too....but that is far less interesting in this round.

 

 

Celtics v Hawks: Celtics in 4.

 

 

Pistons v Sixers: Pistons in 5.

 

 

Magic v Raptors: Magic in 5.

 

 

Cavs v Wizards: This is the only fun series in the east. Will Lebron continue to demonstrate that he is the most talented and dominating player in the league? Or will he give in to the hopelessness of the Cleveland cause and play through the series so he can go hang with Jay Z. I have watched a few Cleveland games since the trade. And they are worse than they were before. The only player of any real value to them was Joe Smith. Ben Wallace, done, a mistake. Wally? He was never good. He is terrible on D, beyond terrible. He can't create a shot, and he can't make shots in the clutch because no sane coach will have him on the floor during winning time. They were better off with Hughes and Gooden. The wizards are intriguing. Caron Butler, Agent 0, Antwan Jamison, Nick Young and Deshawn Stevensen give them the most frenetic and exciting line up this side of Golden State. With Haywood do some good work on the boards, this team is well constructed to knock off the Cavs. Lebron will have to be at his very best for the Cavs to win in this series.

  Cavs will win if: Lebron wants to prove he is the best player in the league and does so.

 

  Wizards will win if: They come with energy and play without fear. Their explosiveness can overwhelm King James and the mistake by the Lake.

 

  Prediction: Cavs in 6, yeah Lebron is that good.