So far so good, 9-3 in picking series in these playoffs, would of really helped build my credibility if NO had come through but oh well. Spurs are great and NO will be back. I am going to forgoe the usual breakdown. I have seen a number of good ones done already.  So this time I am going just lay out a few things I have not seen people focus on.

Bruce Bowen has slipped a peg. Chris Paul exposed that Bowens foot speed is not what it once was. Kobe should be able to take him to the basket. If the refs allow an excessive amount of clutching, grabbing, poking etc., then Bowen may be able to do a credible job. But I don't see the calls going that way in 4 out of 7 games.

Pau Gasol is a winner. The oft repeated line I saw about Gasol entering these playoffs was 0 for ever in wins. But lets take a look at international play. Gasol led his team to a world championship in a pressure packed environment. What's more he has played great basketball in these playoffs and he knows how to play against Duncan. Pau suffers against really physical strong big men. The Spurs front line is savvy and skilled, but not overpowering.

The Spurs are worn down. They are the oldest team in the league and have had the toughest road through these playoffs. Big contributions from their bench and clutch performances from their stars enabled them to make it this far. I am not sure that the Spurs can summon that type of energy for this round.

The Lakers will not fold under the pressure. They have 24 years of experience and 6 championships in the back court. They will not succumb to game 7 pressure the way the Hornets did. They also proved they could win on the road by taking it to Utah and surviving that amazing rain of 3's in game 6. So even if they lose one of the first 2, I think they can get one back in San Antonio.

Lamar Odom can take any of the Spurs defenders to the basket at will. I just hope he does it. LO is the x factor of this series, if he continues his great play in these playoffs I think the Lakers are a solid pick.

Trevor Ariza is back! The Lakers have two weaknesses. They are soft on the boards and they are vulnerable to dribble penetration. A solid 15 minutes from Ariza on Manu and maybe even against Parker in some situations will go a long way to helping the Lakers take this series.

I have a hard time being objective about the Lakers because my fondest sports memories are of watching the Showtime Lakers compete for titles for a decade. But I can tell you this. This is the best Laker team since the Showtime Era. If Bynum comes back next year I think they can challenge the Bulls for best record of all time.

I have tremendous respect for the Spurs, they are currently the team of the Decade. The 3 stars all appear healthy and motivated, the veteran bench have seemingly risen from the dead, and Udoka has been a revelation (they have their next Bowen). I certianly think they are capable of winning this series and the title.

 I just think this Laker team has the answers for them. Heres to a great series. Lakers in 6.

Detroit looked shaky in round 1. The Celtics have looked beatable throughout.  Despite this, we are left with the matchup that was considered to be an all but foregone conclusion at the start of these playoffs. Lets proceed to the matchups.

Point Guard- In Chauncey Billups and his backup Rodney Stuckey, the Pistons have the best PG and back up this side of CP3 and Pargo.  Billups hamstring remains a minor questionmark, but the rest from taking out Orlando early should have him close to full speed. Rondo was the star of game 5, and has a ton of talent. But consistency is not yet there. Sam can make some shots, but he can also mess up the offense. Edge Pistons

Shooting Guard- Before the playoffs started you would be tempted to give the nod to Ray Allen over Rip Hamilton. But after the debacle at the end of game 6 against the Hawks, Allen has looked like a defeated player. Can he get his mojo back in time to help his team to the finals? That is the biggest questionmark of this series. Rip Hamilton offers hard work, solid shooting, and is an experienced winner. Edge Pistons

Small Forward- Tayshaun Prince v Paul Pierce is a wonderful matchup. Both players were key to their teams advancing to this round. Both play both ends of the floor, with Tayshaun more of a defender and Pierce a go to scorer. I look for these two to cancel eachother out to a certain degree. Edge Even

Power Forward- Another fascinating matchup. You have one of the hardest working and talented players in the league in KG facing one of the most enigmatic and talented players in the league. If there is one guy in the league that has the ability to counter everything KG does for the Celtics, it is Wallace. But who knows how he is going to play? If Wallace is at his best the Celtics will fall. But when was the last time Wallace played his best for a full series (2004 finals)? If he does it again this Pistons team will cease to be a one hit wonder. Edge Celtics

Center- Kendrick Perkins and Antonio McDyess both fulfill similar rolls on their teams, Defense and rebounding mainly. Give the edge in physicallity and experience to Antonio, while giving credit for Perkins energy and quickness. This is a classic push, though you have to figure that Perkins will do a better job guarding Wallace than AD will do on KG. Edge Even

Bench- I love the Pistons bench, Maxiel, Stucky and Afflalo bring toughness, defense, energy and scoring, Ratliff can provide a few solid minutes in the post. The Celtics counter with their own excellent bench. James Posey has been the unsung hero of the Celtics during this playoff run. His defense and clutch 3 pointers have kept the Celtics afloat. Leone Powe is an absolute beast with a sweet shot, he represents the player on the Celtics with the greatest upside next to Rondo. Cassell and Brown provide capable veteran minutes while Davis gives them an energy guy they can throw in to bang with Maxiel. Edge Celtics

Coach- I will come right out early and say, I have not been impressed with Doc Rivers. The fact that the Celtics are 0-6 on the road should firmly rest in his lap. The fact that Ray Allen has completely disappeared from the Celtics offense without the coach finding a way to reignite him also reflects poorly on the head man. Flip Saunders will continue to be the much maligned Flip Saunders unless he wins it all. I thought he had turned the corner when he started using that wonderful bench Dumars built for him, but he seems to completely forget about them during the playoffs. If it was not for Billups injury, the general public would still not know a thing about Rodney Stuckey. Similarly, the injury to McDyess forced him to use Maxiel. Edge Even.

Intangibles- What the hell is going on with Ray Allen? I mean really, this guy has one of the sweetest strokes in NBA history and he is either hurt and not telling us or the playoffs have turned him into Rick Ankiel on the mound. Pierce, KG, Rondo and Posey have all stepped up at different times to get it done, so they may be able to survive another no show from Allen. What is going to happen with Rasheed? Is he going to be fired up and match Garnett's energy? If he does the Pistons should walk away in this series, but it somehow seems unlikely, so no easy answer there. Celtics have home court, it has gotten them this far. The Pistons have won a title, they will not shrink due to the pressure of the stage. They have been known to pack it in when the other team brings full energy. Can the Celtics use their defense and energy to take the will out of the Pistons? Or will the Celtics finally crumble under the pressure? That is the question we are faced with.

Prediction: I keep coming back to the Ray Allen thing, Detroit in 6.

Two losses, a back injury to Kobe, ineffective play from Farmar and Radmonovic......The Lakers are now getting their first taste of adversity in these playoffs.  This time we cannot count on Kobe to bail us out. You cannot know how he is going to respond, we saw that he physically could not get it done in overtime 3 nights ago. Now maybe Kobe has responded to treatment, and will be able to carry the Lakers to victory as he has done so many times in the past.

But we cannot bet on that, that means the rest of the team has to be prepared to defeat a confident and capable team in a pressure packed game 5. This is the most significant game the Lakers have played since they took a dump in the finals against Detroit. So the questions are now looming large.

Can Pau Gasol get it done in a pressure packed playoff situation?

Will Lamar Odom step up like he did in the 4th quarter of last game, or fade into oblivion?

Is Vladdy playing basketball or snowboarding?

Will Farmar continue to wilt under the pressure of this series?

and of course the biggest one, How is Kobe's back?

We will find out tonight, ought to be fun.

Question: Who takes the important shot for the Celtics?

Answer:

Great Job KG!! You led your team to victory with a complete performance that included taking the two biggest shots of the game for your team and making them both. Now I want you to do that for the rest of the Playoffs, no more of this Ray Allen BS.

Question: which point guard plays for the Celtics in the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter?

Answer: well Cassell did nothing to build his case. He left Gibson open for a tying 3 pointer, he ran out the shot clock and chucked up some junk on a key possession and almost lost his cool and got himself a technical in winning time.

Question: Will Lebron get some help?

Answer: Yes he will, and he will not have another poor game like today's for the rest of the series.

Question: Will someone/something make Lebron mad?

Answer: I think he will be pretty pissed tonight. He will finish those layups as dunks next time, and I look for him to bounce back with a vengeance.

Question: who will win the coaching battle?

Answer: Undecided, why the Celtics did not go 2 for 1 in the final 40 seconds mystified me. Only KG coming through big time covered up that gaff.

Celtics win by 4 at home with KG's best performance of the playoffs and Lebron's worst. Does that inspire confidence Celtic fans?

The Eastern Conference Playoffs were looking to be rather dull until Atlanta and Philly livened things up by challenging the two logical choices for the conference finals. While it appears that Detroit has righted the ship (tonight's game will be a huge indicator). There is serious doubt regarding the Celtics chance of making the NBA finals when only Detroit was considered a legitimate threat to them going into the playoffs.

On the other hand Cleveland dispatched a Washington team that many had picked to beat them, and set themselves up as a legitimate threat to the Celtics by doing so. This may be the most interesting and hard to pick series in the second round. I am going to have to go through the matchups to make proper sense of this one.

Center- Kendrick Perkins v Big Z. Ilgalskus is a former all star with considerable skills. He can score down low, set mean picks and knock down the 12 footer. Perkins is an energy guy who rebounds well, and can finish strong when his defender leaves him. He keeps Garnett from having to bang and allows him to roam on defense which is where he really shines. Perkins can affect this matchup best by running out on the break and constantly moving around the paint to make Z work to box him out. If he does this effectively, he can help to negate Z's size and skill advantage by tiring him out. Edge Cavaliers

Power Forward- Many feel KG should of won the MVP this year for his unprecedented affect on the Celtics in the win column. His work ethic, intensity and unselfishness galvanise the Celtics and their home crowd. When this happens Boston tends to jump out to big leads and take the heart out of their opponents. Ben Wallace was once a great defensive player and energy guy. He has clearly lost a step. What is worse is that he is a complete non-factor on offense. This will enable KG to roam and dominate the game from a defensive standpoint. I seriously think that Wallace should be sat down and that the Cavs should start Varejo at PF, but more on that later. On paper, HUGE ADVANTAGE CELTICS

Small Forward- Lebron James is the most dominant player in the NBA. Only Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul can currently rival his ability to affect the outcome of a basketball game. He is a physical anomaly with great handles, incredible slashing ablity, excellent passing but a questionable outside shot. Paul Pierce is an excellent scorer whose defensive liabilities were exposed against Atlanta. He is a fierce competitor who can be counted on to take and make big shots, but his ability to move laterally and defend a far more athletic player will be on center stage in this series. If Doc Rivers is able to adjust his line up and get quality minutes from James Posey at this position, with help defense coming from Garnett, then the Celtics should be able to survive this matchup. Advantage Cavaliers                          

 Paul Pierce gets some help keeping up with LBJ

Shooting Guard- Ray Allen is a perenial all star with the sweetest shot this side of Reggie Miller. Allen has been thrust forward as the player that KG and Pierce want taking the important shots. While he had a brutal 4th quarter in game 6 against Atlanta, throughout the season and his career he could be counted on to hit big time 3 pointers. Will he hit the big shot with the Celtics playoff life on the line? We don't know the answer to that yet, in fact it is conceivable that the Celtics could win a title without having to answer that question. The real question is his defense, Joe Johnson exposed his inability to stay with an active 2 gaurd willing to drive the ball, too bad the Cavaliers don't have anyone like that to take advantage. Wally Sczerbiak is known for being a shooter. Unfortunately I have never seen him make those shots on the big stage. He also cannot penetrate and plays terrible defense. I would pull him out of the starting line up if Daniel Gibson gets hot. Advantage Celtics

Point Guard- Earlier this season I questioned what effect Sam Cassell would have on Rajon Rondo. I have seen both players on the court in the late 4th quarter of close games and I don't think Doc Rivers has a clear idea of his rotation when it comes to point guard. With a young player especially, worrying about getting the hook cannot help his play. He is a tough defender, and at times an explosive penetrator. Will his heart be in his throat this series? We shall see. Delonte West has quietly gone from bust to acceptable since his acquisition. He has all the tools except size but that wont hurt him against the Celtics. He is one of the keys to this series, if he plays well the Cavs have a legitimate shot here. Even

Bench- The Celtics bring veteran leadership and play making off the bench with Cassell and Posey. They bring strength and explosiveness with Leon Powe and Glenn Davis. They can also get viable minutes out of PJ Brown and Brian Scalabrine in a pinch. Gibson, Varejo, Jones and Smith are the keys to the series in my eyes. Quality minutes and confident play from this group could expose the flaws in the Celtics and make a series of it. Even

Coach- Doc Rivers is a former coach of the year. He preaches defense, energy and professioalism. But questions remain about his X's and O's. He was unable to engineer a win at Atlanta and seemed slow to realize he needed to put Posey on Joe Johnson. Can he make the right moves and maintain his stars good will? That is the challenge in front of him. Mike Brown has been much maligned for letting Lebron run the whole show on offense and getting mediocre effort from his team as a whole. He does have the experience of taking his team to the finals last year, he should get at least a little credit for that. Even

Intangibles- Boston has home court, and despite their difficulties in the previous series, they have looked invulnerable at home. Stern has already shown that he wants Boston in the finals by refusing to suspend KG for shoving a referree. Will there be a Donaghy factor in this series? The Cavaliers are battle tested, they know they can go to the finals, Lebron will take the ball in the last 5 minutes, Gibson showed he can knock down a shot when it counts as well. The Boston 3 party has won nothing throughout their careers, they have not looked poised in the close games so far in these playoffs and KG's behavior after game 7 did not indicate that he is handling the pressure well.

I think Cleveland can take this series if they can keep it close in 1 or 2 games at the Garden. I think the best way to do this is put Varejo in the starting line up and move Wallace to the bench. Varejo will be able to finish plays when KG leaves him, and this can keep KG from getting the crowd and his team fired up with a block or steal. I would also put Gibson in at shooting guard and instruct him to drive on Allen all day. As a point guard he should be able to find open players for easy baskets.

Unfortunately I expect to see Ben Wallace and his lack of hands and footspeed make KG look like the rightful MVP. Sczerbiak will similarly make Allen look like the superstar he once was and the CELTICS WIN IN 7.