Chasing the Chase

We made it. It's been a pressure stresser. From the green in Daytona to the checkers in Homestead, we have seen it all. Some drivers had big hopes for 2006. Who would have thought we would see a season like Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle gave us? Has anyone seen Carl's driver this year, and his 'won't shave till Carl takes the checkers?' Poor guy. And The Bif! What happened? The #16 was never in one piece for very long this year. For a few, this season could not come to an end any faster then we race.

Others still have work to do. Mainly the one that has arguably worked harder then all the rest all year. #48 has seen it's share of tv time, and picture patient victory lanes. He's flirted with the Cup before, but never has he come on this strong. He had made a huge crush off the green in that small race to start the season, and had the moves to end in afternoon at the Brickyard with a kiss. Miami seems destine for perfection for #48. Mr. Perfect races for 3/3 in 2006.

The Chase. One Race. The season comes down to one chance. One moment to throw down and go home. Put this season in the rearview with some smoke. Leave it all on the track at Homestead. While there can only be one Championship crowned for the season, the last race holds so much for so many.

The Contenders

Jimmie Johnson #48 - (Rank: 1st) -300 odds for Cup

He has been the league leader for most of the year. He started off hot, winning the Daytona 500. He stayed hot for the first quarter of the season. He came up huge and won the Brickyard 400. The #48 turned it on again at the end. Pretty much every time it counted JJ ended the day in Victory Lane. The only track that he wasn't fast enough was Lowes. A small price to pay for the Cup. He has placed 2nd in the league for two of the last three years. Has always came close, but never brought home Homestead. Jimmie has won plenty of headlines, but will still race for one more. 

Matt Kenseth #17 - (Rank: 2nd, -63 points behind) - 4/1 odds for Cup

The #17 never under performs anyone but themselves. They have such a high standard on that team. Even when they are struggling they always seem to stick around and race.  There Wisconsin boys, and we won't even hold that against them. Back in the day, Kenseth and crew chief Robbie Reiser were rivals. Now in the press, they are starting to look like that again. If the #48 takes the pressure drop, Kenseth will be there to catch the Cup. It wouldn't suprise anyone in the garage.

My Shine -

The Chase Curse has nothing between Reiser and Kenseth. It stems from Roush Racing. That team looks shaken up right now, and the #17 is the only thing close to together. I give Kenseth a good 40% shot at taking home Homestead. He needs a slip up from JJ to do it, but I can see Kenseth taking the title most any day of the week. 

Fortunate Few 

Kevin Harvick #29 - (Rank: 3rd, -90 points behind) - 20/1 odds for Cup

Harvick could have easily won both the Busch Series Championship, and the Nextel Cup Championship. He has come on strong when it counts, and if everyone had not done so well last week in Phoenix, it would have been a completely different story right now for the #29 team. With two cars in the Chase from RCR, this team has come back strong. Strong enough to make Harvick resign before his contract was up. Strong enough to bring Burton back into victory lane. The hats are off all around the garage for the job they have done.  

Let's think how they got there. Last year Harvick was found with a gas tank before qualifying that would appear to be full. When in fact it was to make the car lighter during qualifying. Happy was not happy about being caught. This year both the #29 and #31 were found with questionable rims. (Starting to see a pattern for success in NASCAR?) Hey, all the more power to them. If your not working for the slightest edge, your not doing your job. I expect RCR to be working a lot in the off-season. 

Denny Hamlin #11 - (Rank: 4th, -90 points behind) - 20/1 odds for Cup

Read that again. 4th place in the league, and 20/1 odds. Rookie. What more can you say about Game Boy? Maybe, 'welcome to the Chase.' Joe Gibbs Racing has been a power team in NASCAR. With Tony Stewart on your team, a top sponsor in your pocket, and a garage that is as dependable as Gibbs himself, you can only dream of all the good things this kid is going to bring for years to come.

If he can avoid the sophomore slump next season, he is going to take over the NASCAR nation quickly. In my opinion he has more natural talent as a driver, then anyone I can remember. He has arguably the best crew chief in the league, Mike Ford. Being a part of Joe Gibbs Racing, with his teammate Tony Stewart, has him learning fast. And no one in his rookie class can be compared to him. Game Boy could win the whole damn Cup this year, if his luck can continue. He is that much of a real deal.  Joe Gibbs has put together an incredible team, with the #11 Fed Ex Chevrolet. He still has some work to do to keep his spot on top, but someone is going to have to wreck him to take it. Game Boy is my Dark Horse pick to take the Cup! (This was an exact quote by me in midseason. It still sticks.)

Dale Earnhardt Jr. #8 - (Rank: 5th, -115 points behind) - 12/1 odds for Cup

No one can say anything about the year Junior has had. He has raced hard every week. He has overcame wrecks, engine failure, enemies, the flu, you name it, Junior has raced it. He has really been clutch for his team. Where most stars at Juniors level would have a big head about their weight in their sport, he still comes off as June Bug. The first to admit when they are slow, and the first to ask for a beer straight off the checkers. He got a win in Richmond, and made the Chase. A huge improvement from last year, but the team still is missing that edge. They are just a bit shy of being that threat they set out this year to be. But just like anyone with the name Earnhardt will be a favorite at Daytona, he will be considered a favorite for the Cup for that first race next year as well. next year.

My Shine -

It was almost like everyone was just holding their breath about the #8 in the Chase. All the drivers, fans, NASCAR officials, even the beer vendors. Everyone didn't really want to talk too much about him, because he was hanging in there. The #8 had just as bad of luck as the rest of the Chasers, but Junior has that incredible survivor factor to him. He is still the face of NASCAR, and as long as they race every week, there will be Junior fans to watch them. For myself, I had a blast watching him all year. When the day comes that Junior wins the Cup, everything will be right in the NASCAR Nation.

2007 Changes to the Chase Format

1. Any driver with the name Earnhardt, Jimmie, Tony Stewart, Dale, or Jeff Gordon will be eligible for the championship.

2. A minimum of ten drivers, with a maximum of 43 will be allowed to race for the championship cup, as long as they meet NASCAR requirements, along with the required Coke chug points. (With the exception of Jeff Gordon.)

3. A minimum of 10 races will make up the championship Chase, Sprint, Target, Ameriquest, Fusion, Motorola, or Red Bull Run, with a maximum of 36 races to be determined at any given date.

4. The scheduled tracks for the playoffs will be stripped from their dates, to be given to other venues, to make a more diverse track schedule. This will build more excitement, because a championship run will have to be raced on all different terrain. NASCAR will pick the tracks through auction. A road course may or may not be included. All tracks will be determined through the diversity of the track owners and sponsors assets.

5. A championship will be awarded for a combination of driver points, owner points, and an exciting new division of sponsor points. Bonus points will be rewarded to the team with the majority of commercial airtime during actual green flag racing.

6. Any sponsor shall be allowed to gain entry into the championship playoffs, as long as they have a long-term relationship with the business of NASCAR. A 'friendly fee,' will be levied against such sponsors, for an amount to never be disclosed, along with them agreeing to subscribe to Trackpass on www.NASCAR.com for a minimal length of 4 full years.

7. An exciting new network deal will make all scheduled championship races to be available through a subscription service of NASCAR, with only official licensed NASCAR content. This will be an additional advanced coverage that will NOT replace any regular network contracts. The original basic cable coverage will also be advanced with a special new patent technology that will super impose race long commercials over the exact shape of the racecar, at the exact location of the car on the track. With 5.1 Digital Surround Sound!

8. All playoff races will be raced in the Car of Tomorrow and be equipped with the most advanced LCD panels, that will drastically cut down glare, and make sponsorship easily interchangeable during actual race time. Assuring hard paying race naming right sponsors of their chance to make their product win specified such events.

9. A minimum of 3 rain delays and 1 postponed race will be mandatory for the championship schedule. NASCAR holds the right of not informing the viewing audience of weather reports, nor will they postpone a race until all such sponsored commercials are ran in their entirety.

10. The Championship Cup will now be known as the Championship Bud, and all fans and media will only be allowed to refer to the championship driver by their sponsor's name. All onsite track parking for the fallowing year will only be given to car owners of the championship manufacture.

"At first I was skeptical that it was too early to make any changes to the Chase format, but after analyzing these new rules I believe they will all benefit the sport of NASCAR. I think the fans are the true winners. And I can't wait for next year!" -Darrell Dale, fan, self proclaimed Toyota guy.

Queue the Hungry Girl

Yes, there is still some work that Jimmie Johnson has to do before he is crowned king, but it seems like its about as tough as making reservations for the after party. It's not going to take much. Compared to winning the Daytona 500, and the Brickyard 400, it will be like a joyride.

The way that the #48 has been running most of the year, and how strong they are running now when it matters, it should be that easy. All year they have been fast, and have proven that they in fact, deserve the Cup. Just by winning the two biggest races of the year was enough.

Give credit to crew chief Chad Knaus for bringing a top 10 car to the track every weekend. Also for not being afraid to make adjustments even if the car was running well. To predict the changes in the track conditions, and dial the car for strong finishes.

JJ deserves a ton of credit as well. He really seemed to look more mature at the end of this season. Where he has notoriously fallen short in years past, he has raced smart. When it came down to having to drive ruthlessly for the win, he threw down. It's his year, it's his time, and in a matter of days, it's his Championship.

As the 2006 season is getting low, we see one shining spirit rising in Phoenix. This is the race that will bring the Cup contender into the headlights. We still have 5 strong Chasers coming into the second to last race for the Championship. This means there is 900 miles between us and the Cup. We still have a lot of driving to do before vacation, and a lead foot at this point is a given. With 2 weeks left in the NASCAR Nextel Cup season, we start heading south for the winter. We stop in Phoenix, on our way to Homestead.

The Racers Race is winding down as well for the year. So I had decided to do my two favorite editions of this blog series to end the year. We have The Dime this week, fallowed by a Diamond Edition for the last race of the year in Miami. It's about that time of the year. GET!

Racers Race: Phoenix Rising

Dime Edition

 2:30ET Sunday 11/12 NBC

1. Has to be appropriate for #48 Jimmie Johnson. He has shined in all the right places this season. A small race at the begining of the year in Daytona, and a bright afternoon at the Brickyard. He has a ton of heat waiting for him in Miami, and he has to stay warm this weekend in Phoenix. He has never placed outside the top 15 at this track, but that won't be good enough at this point. You can bet Hendrick Motorsports and Knaus is bringing only the best car in the garage to Phoenix, and it will probably come off the hauler dialed for the green. Can JJ finally keep it chill in the late season heat?

2. Matt Kenseth #17 has been the definition of consistent for years now. He is #1 at RR and is a sure bet to be up front in any race he is in. He has had his share of trouble in this years Chase, but no one would dare count him out. He knows how to win championships. He knows more then the #48 for sure.

3. What a survivor Junior has become. He could be battling his luck, his cousin, his heritage, or the flu on any given weekend. After missing the Chase last year, June Bug has fought for every single position at every race this season. None of its been easy. He has proven strong and durable, and needs to answer to the question of consistent. His chances of the Cup are really good, and half the world would think that #8 Dale Earnhardt Jr would look great with the title Cup Champion.

4. How do you write a better-storied season then the one #11 Denny Hamlin has had? This is just down right incredible what this rookie has done in his first year in the big leagues. For him to win the Nextel Cup would knock out the NASCAR Nation. He has a great shot sitting in 4th and only -80 points out of the dream. Plus he is the real deal, and has plenty of more Championships to Chase. For everybody that didn't believe me that he was the dark horse in this years Chase, just look where he sits right now. He has 900 miles left to go, and 2 great cars he will be driving them with. FAST!

5. I wrote a blog not to long ago about this seasons lack of a black hat. I wrote about Harvick making waves in the Busch Series, but was a no show in the Cup. #29 Kevin Harvick is the perfect bad guy for NASCAR, but was falling short of his potential. Look how much things can change come Chase time. He is a huge threat for this Championship, and you can bet he knows it. Starting at the outside of the pole for this weekend in Phoenix makes his threat even stronger. Welcome back, black hat!  

6. The #24 has been a tough sell for this years Chase. Jeff Gordon will always be a Champion, but it looks like this year was not in the cards for him. Maybe it's the engagement, or the wedding, whatever it is, he hasn't brought enough to the table this year to make too many headlines on the track. But fear not Gordon fans; he still has a chance to be in Championship photos. He is a part owner of the #48. And he would like everyone to know that!  

7. As for the rest of the Chasers, they don't stand a chance. Kyle Busch's shot at the title was over by the first race. Kasey Kahne did an amazing job getting into the Chase, but was wrecked by Tony Stewart, which wrecked his chances of making a strong run. Again, next year will be Kahne's year. As for Mark Martin, well even he knows a championship does not define him.  

8. Don't think I forgot about Jeff Burton. He got his win he needed. He got into the Chase. And he had a Championship caliber year. He found some tough luck in the Chase. Found some engine problems, found some walls, and found the garage more then once while the rest were still racing. But all wasn't lost of his resurgence to the top of the league. He found some of his old fans!  

9. Only two races left. I always don't like seeing the NASCAR season come to an end. But when it does, I know that the Daytona 500 is right around the corner. Were only three months away till Speed Week!  

10. So much talk about changes to the Chase format. As I see it this year, everything has worked out to be a great playoff season. I do admit it still needs tweaking, and I have heard some great ideas from a ton of people. It reminds me of the blog entry I posted back in July. I will repost it sometime this next week.

"When you got nothing, you got nothing to lose." ~ Bob Dylan

For all the drivers that are not in the Chase, there is still work to do. You race for owners points, to assure you get a ride into next years start of the season. You race for 11th place in the standings, and the $1 million dollar prize that goes along with being the best of the rest. When you have both of those things wrapped up like Tony Stewart, you race for fun.

It was that last caution in Atlanta, where Smoke held off that commitment line till the very last moment, and made all the leaders wait with him. It was taking that Bear trophy home. It was dominating the Texas Shoot-Out with two tires. It was firing those six shots in the air. It is nothing but fun for Tony Stewart.

It's interesting to see nothing on the line for the #20. Maybe there is pride riding along side him, or maybe it's the burn of not being able to defend his title, but it doesn't reflect on his face. His smile says it all.