Rarely do rookie quarterbacks serve as weekly fantasy starters, and the Jets' Mark Sanchez will likely fit that description.
Peyton Manning is one of the few in the last 10 years who succeeded by throwing for 3,739 yards and 26 touchdowns when he entered the NFL in 1999.
Even Matt Ryan, who was lauded for taking Atlanta to the playoffs, managed to finish with only the league's 13th-most passing yards (3,440 yards) and 16th-most passing scores (16) last year.
Nearly half of the NFL starting quarterbacks scored more fantasy points than Ryan last year. These included Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Kurt Warner, Jay Cutler, Peyton Manning, Matt Cassel, Tony Romo, Brett Favre, David Garrard, Chad Pennington, Tyler Thigpen, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger.
Starting just nearly one full season, Sanchez had less college starting experience than Manning or Ryan. He also played with a USC team that was one of the most talented on offense. Rather than facing Pac-10 defenses, he will find himself on a more even playing field facing better competition and players, such as the tough AFC East rivals of New England and Miami.
Sanchez ranks 30th in my fantasy quarterback rankings. Sage Rosenfels and Byron Leftwich are ahead of Sanchez, and Tavaris Jackson and rookie Matthew Stafford are below him.
I recently participated in an experts draft for a league that I won last year. Hopefully, these are winning picks again. I had the eighth pick among 12 teams, and the starting slots are QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, RB/WR/TE, K and D/ST. The scoring is standard (with four points for a passing score and one point per reception).
First round: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago: Real work takes precedence over fantasy fun, hence this was an autopick instead of Michael Turner being selected. Fortunately, I'll have a reason to cheer for the Bears if they flop.
Second round: Clinton Portis, RB, Washington: He's one of my 13 running backs who should be selected before any other choice. Surprisingly, the computer agreed. Luck be a fantasy star, tonight!
Third round: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans: He's only one of two quarterbacks to ever throw for 5,000 yards. Really, how many Saints will you find within 5,000 yards of the French Quarter?
Fourth round: Vincent Jackson, WR, San Diego: He's a bargain as the 18th wideout taken. The pick before him, Roy Williams, won't even be the 18th-best star on his own team!
Fifth round: Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Indianapolis: Even Tony the Tiger could run for 1,000 yards after catching footballs from Peyton Manning all day. Valued as a second, he'll produce like a "Grreat" No. 1.
Sixth round: Torry Holt, WR, Jacksonville: Don't wait! When working well, he plays smooth as a Jaguar. Receive a big-name, luxury item at a discount.
Seventh round: Donald Driver, WR, Green Bay: He takes more smacks than "The Donald" dishes. Trump your adversaries in the boardroom midway through the draft meeting.
Eighth round: Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis: Buck the trend! Joseph Addai's offseason knee surgery is just one of many reasons to believe this rookie will be Indy's featured back by midseason.
Ninth round: Jeremy Maclin,WR, Philadelphia: A super sleeper! He's bigger than a DeSean Jackson, faster than a Reggie Brown and stronger than a Kevin Curtis.
10th round: Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle: He's fair-minded and balanced in his views of passing. On the other hand, his namesake on "The View" elects to pass wide to one side.
11th round: Shonn Greene, RB, New York Jets: The color of money in New York wrecked many financial futures. Back your future with this cheap insurance.
12th round: Laurence Maroney, RB, New England: Bill Belichick saves his back with an eye toward the future. Spend wisely and save your fantasy playoff hopes by running with this second-half surge.
My final six picks were Denver TE Tony Scheffler (he's a proven tight end in a passing-friendly offense), Washington RB Ladell Betts (serves as insurance for Portis), New England D/ST (has talent and coaching to rebound), Cleveland WR Brian Robiskie (polished rookie has chance to be Cleveland's top WR), Chicago D/ST (here's another defense that has talent and coaching to rebound) and Chicago K Robbie Gould (I couldn't curb my enthusiasm for Bears players).
He's expected to be out 2-3 months after having ankle surgery to remove scar tissue and bone spurs, and will at least miss all the preseason games, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer. He'll also experience a rigorous rehab.
That raises red flags about Westbrook's ability to return effectively by the start of the season and play all 16 games at peak efficiency. I've dropped Westbrook four spots to No. 10 for overall and running back, and will look to drop him further if he experiences setbacks in his tough rehab. I've upgraded the fantasy values of first-round rookie LeSean McCoy (climbs to No. 38 from 42nd among RBs) and third-year vet Lorenzo Booker (climbs to No. 50 from 82nd among RBs).
Tom Glavine has minimal fantasy value in mixed leagues even if he signs with another team. He registers low strikeouts, recording a lowly 5.3 K/9 in 13 starts last year, and has recently registered high ratios. He'll only have value as a starter in an AL- or NL-only league if he stays healthy and posts respectable ratios again, reversing his great decline in ERA and WHIP from the last two seasons.
I held onto top prospects David Price (drafted) and Tommy Hanson (claimed before the season) with the expectation that they'll be called up in time to still make a significant impact in ratios and strikeouts this season.
Conversely to Glavine, top prospect Hanson is a fantasy dream for a starting pitcher. He's recorded strikeouts at a prodigious rate and has superb ratios in the minor leagues. He's had 90 strikeouts (12.2 K/9) and posted a 1.49 ERA and .86 WHIP in 66.1 innings at Triple A this season. Make room for him immediately by dropping struggling starters like Jonathan Sanchez, Bronson Arroyo and Mike Pelfrey, or drop a reserve hitter to open a spot.
Both Francisco Carmona and Travis Hafner ranked low in my preseason SP and DH rankings, and with good reason. Each had poor 2008 seasons, struggled in the second half, and didn't indicate they could rebound.
Unfortunately, for potential fantasy owners, they have continued their slumps this season. Additionally, Carmona isn't a strong strikeout pitcher, giving him little value unless he posts ratios of a 3.06 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP like he did in 2007. Until he posts solid ratios again in the majors, Carmona belongs on the waiver wire.
In 2006, Hafner slammed 42 homers to finish seventh and posted the 12th-most RBI, achieving his career highs. From 2004 thru 2007, Hafner totaled 127 homers and 434 RBI but, beset by injuries, he amassed just five homers and 24 RBI last year. Only claim Hafner until he proves he has regained his power.
The loss of J.J. Putz affects fantasy owners little. Failing as a setup man, he offered poor value as a reliever with poor ratios and scarce save chances. Francisco Rodriguez's fantasy value remains strong as one of the top fantasy relievers. He's second in saves (14) and owns a .73 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.
More analysis
Though Randy Johnson's season ERA (5.12) and WHIP (1.36) are poor, he's rebounded greatly in the last three outings. Johnson has allowed just two earned runs, 11 hits and five walks in his last three starts spanning 17.1 innings to record a strong 1.05 ERA and .94 WHIP. He's also maintained his high strikeout ratio with a 7.4 K/9 during this span and has recorded nearly a strikeout per inning for the season. Claim him with the expectation that he will record respectable ratios and strikeouts until the All-Star break.
After disappointing as one of the the top second basemen sleepers for the past two seasons, Milwaukee's Rickie Weeks was finally fulfilling expectations and serving as one of this year's best draft bargains.
He was producing power stats similar to the top two fantasy players at the position (Chase Utley and Ian Kinsler). Weeks was projected to hit 39 homers and 105 RBI with 123 runs, nine steals and a .272 average for a full season.
Weeks' replacement Craig Counsell isn't a feasible waiver claim at age 38 with his best seasons behind him and better options available.
These solid waiver claims at second base are available in at least a quarter of FOX Sports fantasy baseball leagues. They include Arizona's Felipe Lopez (26.3 percent available), Detroit's Placido Polanco (36 percent), Seattle's Jose Lopez (41.4 percent), Cleveland's Asdrubal Cabrera (43.6 percent), Pittsburgh's Freddy Sanchez (43.8 percent), the Angels' Howie Kendrick (44.5 percent) and the White Sox's Alexei Ramirez (44.6 percent).
One intriguing second baseman who offers potential power and average is Ramirez, who hit 21 homers and 77 RBI with a .290 average as a rookie last year. He is aiming to break out of a season-long slump.
Kansas City's Mark Teahen (56 percent) is another solid option who offers some power. He moved to second base this season and owns a career high 18 homers in his first four seasons.
St. Louis' Skip Schumaker (91.1 percent) also switched positions to second base and offers runs and average. He hit .302 with 87 runs and eight steals in 153 games last year.
Other second basemen who are more widely available include Tampa Bay's Akinori Iwamura (82.5 percent), the Mets' Luis Castillo (91.3 percent), Colorado's Ian Stewart (92.9 percent) and San Francisco's Emmanuel Burriss (98 percent).
Owners of Manny Ramirez should claim Juan Pierre to replace him in their lineups.
Available in more than three quarters (76.4 percent) of FOX Sports fantasy leagues, Pierre offers help in runs, stolen bases and average. Of course, the light-hitting outfielder has a big dropoff in homers and RBIs.
Ramirez is expected to return July 3, so keeping him on the roster as a bench player means he can still contribute later to fantasy teams with at least half the season remaining (83 games).
Pierre scored at least 87 runs when he played full-time for seven seasons from 2001-07. He also reached 90 runs six times and 100 runs three times during that span. Even though he played only part-time last year, Pierre stole 40 bases to finish eighth in the majors. In the previous seven seasons, he averaged 54 steals. Pierre has the potential to hit .300. He owns a career .300 average and is batting .355 in 31 at-bats this season.
However, downgrade the trade values of all other Dodgers hitters, including Matt Kemp, Andre Either, Rafael Furcal and Orlando Hudson.
Batting in the middle of the lineup, Kemp and Either will likely see fewer good pitches and RBI chances without him frequently being on base. At the top of the lineup, Furcal and Hudson will likely see fewer good pitches without Ramirez batting behind them and score less runs without Ramirez to help drive them home.
Another outfielder to claim is Kansas City's Jose Guillen, who's available in 51 percent of FOX Sports leagues. Like Ramirez, Guillen can contribute heavily in the four categories of average, runs, RBI and homers. Guillen had 23 homers, 99 RBI, 84 runs and a .290 average with Seattle in 2007.
The next season with Kansas City, his average dipped to .264 and runs fell to 66, but he hit 20 homers with 97 RBI in a weak-hitting lineup. This year, the Royals have upgraded their offense with the significant additions of first baseman Mike Jacobs and outfielder Coco Crisp. This bodes well for Guillen's stats this season.
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