No one is giving Alabama a chance at beating Florida in the SEC Championship on Saturday.  Vegas has an unprecedented spread with the Gators as the 9 1/2 point favorite over the top ranked Tide.  All the monikers have began popping up in the media: speed vs. power, offense vs. defense, Frazier vs. Ali.  In what could turn out to be the most significant SEC Championship in history, The number 1 Crimson Tide come in ranked 3rd in the nation in defense with 11.5 points per game given up.  Florida is right behind them at 12.3.  The fact is, while Bama's defense is one of the best in the nation, so is the Gators'.  Florida also has the better passing defense having intercepted 23 passes to Bama's 15.  Bama's a bit better against the run and that's really where their edge on defense ends.  In contrast, Florida's offense is one of the best in the nation.  They rank 3rd in the country in points per game scored with 46.3.  Bama can score as well, however, as they're averaging 32 points per game. 

So, while Bama fans can complain that the Tide isn't getting the respect it deserves as being the underdog as the top ranked team in the country, numbers don't lie.  All indications point to one logical outcome setting aside all bias: Florida should win this game...handily.  But with all the numbers, there's one thing you can't measure that gives Bama the edge in this game.  Those little intangibles that can make a big difference in a college football game of this magnitude.

For instance, Florida has dominated their opponents all season.  Their closest game came against Ole Miss, a game which they lost 31-30 in The Swamp.  Bama, on the other hand, has played at least 3 close games.  Sure, those probably shouldn't have been close games, but they were and they won nonetheless.  Kentucky gave the Tide a run but ended up losing a close one 17-14.  Ole Miss, the only team to beat Florida, came back from a huge deficit against the Tide and almost won.  The Tide held them off 24-20.  Then the battle in Death Valley in which John Parker Wilson came of age and won the game for them in OT (thanks to an interception).  The point is, Bama has played in close games and won.  Florida has rarely been in that situation.  If the game stays close until the end, the obvious edge goes to Bama because they've been in the situation before. 

Next, is the fact that Bama has played a game in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.  Their first game was against an overrated Clemson team there which they completely demolished.  The players are familiar with the turf and the field.  Florida has not had the luxury of playing there this year. 

Another intangible is not recorded in the stat sheet. The "big plays" have carried Florida most of the season.  Be it big plays on defense or offense, the Gators are capable of going out there and making that one huge play to get them in the end zone quickly.  With respect to some of Florida's opponents, they have yet to play against a defense as solid as Bama's this year.  Bama does not give up the big play.  Which leads to another intangible.

Bama has the ability to control the tempo of a game.  They play old school SEC football.  They beat you on defense forcing 3 and outs and then they pound the ball with run plays on long sustained drives leading to points.  It's not flashy, but with their style, they don't need flash.  In order for Florida to win, they have to keep Tebow on the field.  Bama knows this and won't let them control the clock. 

I've been watching both of these teams play all season.  I know what each are capable of on both sides of the ball and I can say with full confidence that this game will not be a blow out.  In my opinion, it could go either way, but don't write off the Tide just yet.  They're 12-0 for a reason.

There's a lot on the line for both teams.  Not only their conference championship but a shot at the BCS title game.  Not since Ohio State vs. Michigan a few years back have we seen a game of such importance.  Already being dubbed "the game of the century" it's easy to understand why.  

Prediction: Bama 23
                     Florida 20

Many of my regular readers may remember back in October, after Auburn blew another halftime lead and lost big to West Virginia, I posted an article stating that the Tuberville firing countdown clock had begun.  Today, the clock struck zero and Tuberville is officially out as Auburn's head coach.  The university will buy out per the contract and look for answers elsewhere. 

Most Auburn fans were calling for his head even before the Iron Bowl, but after being shut out 36-0 last Saturday, everyone knew it was over.  Initially the reports from the plains said that Tuberville would return to coach but after three business days since the Iron Bowl loss, and no official annoucement of his return, speculation about his firing started swirling.  After meeting with the Athletic Director and President, Tuberville was supposed to present a plan to turn things around.  Apparently whatever he was selling, they weren't buying and this evening, Tuberville met with the players first to announce his departure, then released the following statement:

"The last 10 years have been a great time in my life, both professionally and personally," Tuberville said. "It's been a great place to coach and live, and we've had a lot of success along the way. I'm going to remain in Auburn and help the Auburn family however I can. I'm very appreciative of the coaches, players, staff and Auburn fans over the last decade."

Most pundits will point out the fact that he was 80-40 at Auburn, beat Bama 6 times in a row, and led his team to an undefeated season during his tenure.  The fact is, for whatever reason, Tuberville decided to say goodbye to his successful Offensive Coordinator Al Borges and hire Tony Franklin to bring in the spread offense.  It was a risky move and one that proved fatal to his own head coaching career.  Even after firing Franklin halfway into the season and returning to Borges' more traditional offense, things never improved.  The tumultuous season was capped off by a shutout against their arch-rivals and the worst beating in 40 years. 

Where will Auburn turn next?  Initially most thought it would be Muschamp in Texas until it was announced last week that he would be the coach-in-waiting once Mack Brown retired from the sidelines.  Other names in the mix are Butch Davis in North Carolina and Mike Leach at Texas Tech.  The other hot commodity, Brian Kelly, has already eliminated his name from any of the head coaching vacancies.  The Tigers face a tough road ahead.

According to an article on foxsports.com, Coach Brian Kelly will be staying with Cincinnati for the foreseeable future.  Coach Kelly led the Bearcats to a 10-2 record and a Big East title this season.  This will be the first BCS Bowl in school history.  Kelly was one of the hottest commodities on the coaching circuit with the job he's done in Cincy.  In order to dispell rumors of leaving, he came out with a statement and said "no means no."  Also, it was noted in the write-up that Coach Kelly has several stipulations in his contract to improve the athletic facilities at the University including building a covered practice field. 

What's nice about this is that in our money driven college football world, loyalty and integrity still mean something.  In an era where coaches are trying to pull back-door deals, Kelly is instead focusing on building something special in Cincinnati and that is something to be proud of.  Just look at the stunt Rich Rodriguez pulled two years ago with Bama in order to negotiate a better contract for himself at West Virginia, claiming his loyalty only to leave a year later for Ann Arbor.  I don't even need to mention Saban do I?

Coach Brian Kelly is a throwback to better days when integrity in amateur sports actually meant something.  I hope he has a great tenure there and builds that program into a powerhouse.  Why can't there be more coaches like this?

Most people agreed, Auburn would lose this football game against Alabama.  No one expected a 36-0 shutout.  From the outset, Auburn's QB, Kodi Burns looked lost.  By halftime it was 10-0 Bama.  Then they came out in the second half and did what Coach Saban has been harping on all year: the Tide finished.  With a huge third quarter, they scored 19 points.  By the fourth quarter the third string was in and the game was over. 

The 36-0 victory was the first shutout in the series since Auburn's 9-0 victory in 2000 and the largest margin of victory for either team since 1962 when Bama won 38-0. 

Many pundits and sportswriters across the country said the game was irrelevant.  They kept saying Bama nation was focused too much on the SEC Championship and didn't really care about the Iron Bowl.  To those naysayers, I bring you the picture below, snapped today by me in a mall in Alabama outside of the famous Bama Fever/Tiger Pride store.  These stores specialize in Bama and Auburn merchandise including hats, t-shirts, pictures, and other items.  After the Iron Bowl victory last night, Bama fans were waiting literally for hours today in line for a t-shirt proclaiming their victory over Auburn.



 
We waited together as fans to get our opportunity to sport the score on our backs of the 2008 Iron Bowl.  This was a chance seven years in the making and being the proud Bama fans we are, we want to make sure we can wear this for the next 364 days as a reminder to Auburn that they're still second fiddle to the greatest football program in NCAA history.

Below is a pic I snapped of the front of my new shirt:



This is a pic of the back proclaiming the final score as a reminder to the Auburn family:




Now, Alabama can start focusing on our date with the Gators in Atlanta next weekend.  Many are expecting a blowout, but we are not going away.  This is Alabama Football!  It is what it is...aight?

It's finally upon us.  Iron Bowl week is finally here.  The state's greatest game has a lot on the line.  For Auburn, it's the chance to become bowl eligible, continue their winning streak against the Tide, and probably save Tuberville's job for at least one more season.  For Bama, it's the chance to remain unbeaten and have a shot at the BCS National Championship and finally end the streak of 6 consecutive losses to their arch-rivals. 

The conventional wisdom when it comes to college football's greatest rivalry (arguably) is that records don't matter when Alabama and Auburn matchup in the Iron Bowl.  The one thing you'll hear from fans, on both sides, is that once these two teams hit the field, you can throw the records and rankings out of the window.  History, however, has proven that this is anything but true. 

According to the Iron Bowl blog on al.com, the favorite in this game has won the matchup 75% of the time.  In the last 25 years, it's a little less, but not much at 68%.  So, the conventional wisdom should be that the records do, in fact, matter.  If one team is favored to win, most likely that team will win the game.  It gets even better though.

These two teams have faced off 31 times in their history separated by 3 or more wins.  In those 31 matchups, the team with the better record has won the game 28 times.  In the past 32 Iron Bowl games, the favorite has won 24 of those games.

That's bad news historically if your an Auburn fan.  Bama enters the game at 11-0 and ranked number 1 in the country.  The Tigers are 5-6 with close wins over both Miss. State and Tennessee with finals of 3-2 and 14-12 respectively.

Conventional wisdom should tell us that the favorite will most likely win this game.  It's hard to get that message through Alabama and Auburn fan's heads.