Teddy Mitrosilis and I recently began our division-by-division breakdown on BlogTalkRadio, beginning with the National League West division. The series continued on Monday with the National League Central. This afternoon, 1:00 Eastern, we will take on the N.L. East. Click here to listen live. 

To supplement our work via podcast, we are also going to put our work into writing as well. In this post, we take a close look at the N.L. West, and what to expect from each team in the division going forward in 2009. Next up is the San Francisco Giants.

Recap:

The San Fransisco Giants exceeded pre-season expectations in '08. Unfortunately, the bar was set pretty low, as PECOTA predicted the Giants to finish in last place in the division with a 68-94 record. San Fransisco-thanks to a Cy Young performance from Tim Lincecum-surpassed that total by four wins, going 72-90 to take fourth place in the lowly West.

Offense:

In the first year without Barry Bonds hitting in the middle of the lineup, the Giants struggled mightily to score runs. Not a single regular was able to produce an Equivalent Average-"a measure of total offensive value per out, with connections for league offensive level, home park and team pitching," based on the same scale as batting average-above .300. Only four hitters who received more than 400 plate appearances, in fact, were able to top the .260 EqA mark, which is league average.

With that said, it was not surprising that the Giants ranked 15th out 16 teams on the circuit with 640 runs scored. The offense combined to hit .262/.321/.382 with an anemic .703 OPS.

Bengie Molina-yes, Bengie Molina!-led the team with 16 home runs and 95 RBIs. Molina, known for his defense, compounded the offensive problems by drawing only 19 walks, however, and finished with a 98 OPS+. It could have been one of the least impressive 95-RBI performances in baseball history.

Center fielder Aaron Rowand, who was signed to a five-year, $60-million contract last offseason, ended up second on the club with 13 jacks. Rowand, however, was not the same hitter outside of Citizens Bank Park, as he produced a below-average 94 OPS+ while striking out 126 times against 44 walks. Many analysts criticized the contract that he received last winter, predicting that the 31-year-old would turn into a fourth outfielder (production wise, not based off of playing time) before the end of the deal. Making it more puzzling, it was foolish for a non-contending team like San Francisco to waste financial resources that would have been better spent addressing other, more pressing areas. No one predicted that he would plummet to that level so soon, though, as his offensive value declined while he lost a step in the outfield. Add another poor decision-a sunk cost on the books-to the Brian Sabean files.

Fred Lewis and Randy Winn, two of the only minimal bright spots on the Bay, added some value, especially defensively. Lewis posted a line of .282/.351/.440 in 468 at-bats. Winn led the team in hits, doubles, total bases and walks, hitting a team-best .306 with a .363 OBP and .426 slugging percentage.

There were not too many bright other offensive highlights, though, as a poorly constructed offensive attack consisting of over-the-hill veterans-honestly, with names like Rich Aurilia, Ray Durham, Dave Roberts and Omar Vizquel, it was as if the Giants were playing in 1999-and non-prospects sucked up way too many at-bats. Vizquel, no longer the same defender at shortstop, was practically a guaranteed out, batting only .222/.283/.267 with a 45 OPS+ in 266 at-bats. No, that is not a typo.

Run Prevention:

Luckily, the Giants had Lincecum, who somehow managed to win 18 games. The flamethrowing right-hander struck out a league-leading 265 in 227.0 innings pitched (10.51 K/9) while posting a 2.62 ERA and 167 ERA+ in 34 starts. The 24-year-old continued to prove his doubters wrong while establishing himself as a top-five starting pitcher in the majors. Sabean should be thankful that he did not end up trading his young gun to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for outfielder Alex Rios, a popular rumor last December. Even the man who gave Barry Zito $126-million and dealt away Joe Nathan and Fransisco Liriano for a few months of A.J. Piersynski would not have been able to survive that, given how Rios regressed as the former University of Washington standout continued to impress.

Matt Cain (AP)

Lincecum's rotation mate, fellow 24-year-old righty Matt Cain, was also effective. Cain, despite an 8-14 record, posted a 3.76 ERA and 116 ERA+, striking out 186 in 227.0 innings pitched. Looking to the future, he seems like a real All-Star candidate. The emerging star has a four-pitch arsenal, with a fastball that averages out at 92.4, a slider that sits in the mid-80s, a slow curve ball that hovers between 75-76 MPH and an improving change piece that is about, on average, six miles per hour slower than his heater.

Jonathan Sanchez is another guy to keep an eye on. Sanchez missed bats to the tune of a 8.94 K/9 rate, but struggled with his consistency. If he can improve his command, though, the 26-year-old left-hander could turn into a valuable middle-of-the-rotation starter to supplement the dangerous Cain/Lincecum duo.

Things only got worse in year two of the Zito debacle, however. Although he is no longer the highest-paid pitcher in baseball with the recent CC Sabathia deal, it is safe to say the quirky southpaw is overpaid. He gained a bit of velocity back on his fastball in the second half, but the former Cy Young winner posted a 5.15 ERA and 85 ERA+ on the way to a 17-loss campaign. Opponents batted .270/.350/.412 against him, the kind of offensive production that the Giants' lineup was in desperate need of.

If not for a 6-5 record and 4.52 ERA after the All-Star break, Zito would have ended up with an even more disappointing stat line. As it is, the $14.5 million dollar paycheck that he received seems like charity, with five more long seasons ahead, barring an unlikely occurrence in which he can shed the bust label, before his salary comes off the books.

The Giants' relief corps was not exactly stellar, either. The bullpen posted a 4.45 ERA, which was good for 14th in the N.L.

Brian Wilson, who represented San Francisco at the All-Star game, picked up 41 saves as the closer. Wilson, however, is proof that closers are made, not born. He produced rates of 9.67 K/9 and 4.04 BB/9 while blowing six saves and posting a fairly high 4.62 ERA and below-average 95 ERA+ and 1.44 WHIP in 62.1 innings pitched. He has a mid-90s heater, but his secondary offerings leave a lot to be desired.

Tyler Walker was fairly mediocre as well, but Alex Hinshaw (10.66 K/9) and Keiichi Yabu logged some impressive innings.

Making what Lincecum was able to accomplish all the more impressive-in addition to the lack of run support-the Giants' team defense was poor, also. The defense, in fact, converted only 68.5 percent of batted balls hit into play into outs, coming in near the bottom, at 13, in team defensive efficiency. The outfield defense was fairly solid, but there were considerable holes in the infield, especially with the loss of all-field, no-hit third baseman Pedro Feliz to free agency.

Looking Ahead: 

The Giants have the chance to improve on the run prevention front, assuming that Cain and Lincecum (expect a slight regression) will continue to be effective. If the combo should falter, though, any slim chances that San Francisco has of competing could fade by the All-Star break. Sanchez could be huge, depending on whether or not he can work out his control issues. Zito will have to surprise as well.

While Sabean has been responsible for his fair share of mistakes-the Zito deal makes me ashamed to share the same alma mater-he has surprisingly made a few acceptable decisions this offseason already. His best move might have came last week, when he signed veteran left-hander Randy Johnson to a one-year, eight-million dollar deal. This adds another solid arm to the middle of the starting rotation. Johnson, though he is getting up there in years, was actually one of the better starters in the N.L. in 2008, posting a 117 ERA+ in 184.0 innings pitched. The left-hander is only five wins away from 300 as well, and his pursuit of the milestone will be a ticket draw that will attract attention regardless of how the poor offense is performing.

Sabean also signed one of the best relievers available, Jeremy Affeldt, at a relatively low cost. Affeldt, seemingly looking for financial security, decided to sign right away, given the apparent surplus of quality high-impact relief arms on the market. He agreed to a two-year deal, worth $8-million. Unlike the Zito debacle, this agreement is great for the Giants for two reasons: its length and undervalued price.

Affeldt quietly put together an impressive campaign for the Cincinnati Reds in 2008. The 29-year-old left-hander posted a 3.33 ERA in 74 appearances, mostly pitching in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. His peripherals were even more impressive, as he produced rates of 9.19 K/9, 2.87 BB/9 and 3.1 K/BB in 78.1 innings pitched. He provides a potential capable replacement to Wilson, but will likely add even more value pitching in high-leverage situations in the seventh and eighth innings. In addition, Affeldt, as a Type B free agent, will not cost San Francisco a draft pick.

The Giants also committed $18.5-mil to shortstop Edgar Renteria, essentially ending the days of Vizquel taking up innings at the position in the Bay area. Renteria did not receive an arbitration offer from the Detroit Tigers following a dismal return to the American League. He posted a weak line of .270/.317/.382 as his OPS dropped from .860 to .699 in a two-year span. His arm strength and range also continued to decline, leaving the Tigers with little return on their investment as Jair Jurrjens emerged as a capable major league starter for the Atlanta Braves.

For these reasons, many analysts were skeptical of the signing at first. Looking closer, it seems like a smart choice. Considering the market for shortstops and the short length, the cost is not all that substantial. Renteria, who was out of shape for most of '08, is also likely to rebound a bit offensively. He is moving into a hitters' park and back into the National League, where he has been a five-time All-Star. The defensive drop off has been pretty significant-the advanced metrics are definitely not his friend-but he should settle into a middle-of-the-pack overall player at the position, providing a short-term upgrade over any other internal options without setting the franchise back in the future. 

It is unlikely that San Francisco will contend next season-though there are some prospects on the way, including Nate Schierholtz, who should play a role in '09. In the N.L. West, though, anything is possible, and it hard not to like the Giants' starting rotation.

2008 Rewind Snapshot: San Fransisco Giants:

Division Rank: 4th

Record: 72-90

Runs: 640, 15th in N.L.

Runs Per Game: 3.95, 15th in N.L.

Batting Average: .262, 8th in N.L.

On-Base Percentage: .321, 13th in N.L.

Slugging Percentage: .382, 15th in N.L.

OPS+: 88

Run Prevention

Runs Allowed: 743

Runs Allowed Per Game: 5.07

Team ERA: 4.77, 15th in N.L.

Team ERA+: 100

Opponents' OPS: .745, 9th in N.L.

Team Defensive Efficiency: .685, 13th in N.L.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.