Here is a tale of four players and their quest for a big pay day on the free agent market this winter.

Player A entered the offseason expecting some to cash in after coming off a season in which he hit .296/.371/.471 with 20 home runs and a 120 OPS+. Although he is about to turn 35, he has been a durable player throughout his career, reaching the 150-game plateau every year since 1998. His lowest OPS+ total during that time span came in 2007, when he put up a 114 mark, but he has been a consistent offensive performer and a tough out since he emerged as a full-time regular. The major drawback with him, though, is his below-average outfield defense; he produced a -22.9 UZR rating in 2008 and has been in the red in this category since 2004, giving back a lot of the runs that he helps create with his bat.

Since his team declined to offer him arbitration, though, Player A was not attached to a draft pick. He has posted the following value win totals (all data courtesy of FanGraphs) since 2005: 4.2, 3.4, 2.8, 1.5.

Originally looking for a multi-year contract entering free agency, Player A, with less than a week before the start of spring training, agreed to an incentive-laden one-year deal that guarantees $5-M.

Player B was productive offensively in '08, batting .250/.367/.507 with 33 home runs to help his team to a World Series championship. Since '05, he has put up OPS+ totals of 128, 122, 127 and 125, respectively, belting 124 home runs. A former number one overall pick, he has been a consistent right-handed hitter while playing in the same city for his entire career. He is about to turn 33, and, while he has old-player skills, it is unlikely that is headed for a major decline in the short term. Similar to Player A, though, he is a liability in the outfield, which negates some of his offensive contributions and negatively impacts his overall value. His UZR marks range from -1.1 to -19.2 during the time span mentioned earlier in the paragraph.

Player B was also not offered arbitration, meaning that he would not cost a draft pick if a new team were to sign him on the free agent market. He has put up the following value win totals since 2005: 4.4, 2.4, 2.1, 3.2.

Player B signed a two-year, $16-M contract in early January.

Player C is a polarizing figure within the industry, but it is hard to argue with his plus power. He has hit more than 40 home runs five consecutive times, including 46 in 2004. Since then, he has blasted exactly 40 homers each year. Player B also has excellent on-base skills, with the ability to post consistently above-average OBP figures despite a perennial low batting average. A Three True Outcome hitter, a large portion of his plate appearances either end with a long ball, strike out or walk.

Like his counterparts available on the free agent market, Player C is also a poor defender. As a left fielder, he has ranked near the bottom of the pack in the National League in UZR, with totals ranging from -4.0 to -20.0 since 2003.

About to turn 29, Player C was also looking for a big payday in his first dive into the free agent waters. According to teammates, he had his hopes set on $100-M-plus early in the '08 season. Since he was also not offered arbitration, he did not come with any draft pick baggage, either. His value win totals since 2005: 3.0, 1.8, 2.8, 1.3.

Player C agreed to terms with a perennial loser at two-years, $20-M on the same day as Player A. He will likely play first base for his new team.

Player D has been able to consistently hit for a high batting average, having topped the .280 mark every campaign since 2001. His on-base skills have not been nearly as impressive as the other players in this story, though; he has never topped the .360 mark in on-base percentage. He also has hit the fewest amount of homers out of the group since '05, with his career-high, 33, coming in '06. Regardless, he is still a nice hitter (his ballpark suppressed his output) who has posted an OPS+ total above 120 for three straight seasons.

Player D is a mediocre defensive outfielder as well, however, costing his team several runs on the other side of the ball. Like the aforementioned players, he has been in the red in UZR, including a terrible -21.2 number in 2007. Player B is the oldest of the group, born in 1972, and the most likely candidate for a decline. In addition, as a Type A free agent who was offered arbitration, suitors were aware that he would cost the team an early draft pick. His value win totals since '05: 2.2, 2.9, 0.8, 2.3.

Player D was given $31.5-M over three years-he will be close to 40 at the duration-in the second week of December. Essentially, his new team, perhaps unaware of the full extent of his poor defense, set the market for similar players while incurring the cost of a draft pick. Also, he is a left-hander hitter headed to a team featuring a lefty-heavy lineup.

This offseason there was a surplus of players who provide offensive pop on the market. The majority of these free agents, though, are terrible defenders. While advanced defensive data has its flaws, the majority of scouts agree with the data when it comes to the players included in this exercise. Front offices across the league are finally valuing defense appropriately, it seems, and this contributed to the plummeting prices. Combined with the poor economic climate and the perfect example of demand exceeding supply, there was no reason for the Philadelphia Phillies to sign Player D, Raul Ibanez, at that price so early into the game.

The Ibanez signing was criticized at the time-rightfully so. However, after seeing what Player A (Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles Angels), Player B (Pat Burrell, Tampa Bay Rays) and Player C (Adam Dunn, Washington Nationals) received in a depressed market, the decision seems even more foolish in hindsight. Ibanez is arguably the least productive player out of the four. He is a poor defender who is not an upgrade defensively over Burrell, who is also younger and less likely to fall off the map offensively. Plus, he cost a draft pick, is a major decline candidate and was overpaid (he was given the longest and most lucrative deal on an annual basis) relative to the market; the law of supply and demand is not all that difficult of a concept. Another big slugger who costs his team runs in the outfield, Manny Ramirez, is still available as well. There were (and still are) also a number of lesser-type corner outfield/DH bats who were (and will be in the coming weeks) forced to take pay cuts on the free agent market.

Ruben Amaro has made up for this clear-cut blunder in the arbitration process, but he used the wrong processes in his first major move as general manager of the Phillies. Even if Amaro truly felt that Ibanez was the best available option, Philadelphia likely could have had its man for cheaper, preserving precious financial resources.

Setting the market with so many players with similar skill sets, of course, is usually not the most effective strategy for general managers, especially so during an economic recession. Hopefully Amaro has learned his lesson and will not fall into the same trap in the future.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

 

New York Yankees young hurler Joba Chamberlain should be used as a starter in 2009. At least until it is proven that Chamberlain cannot handle the work load.

It is not rocket science. The more innings a pitcher logs, the more valuable he is to his team.

Now that the Yankees have officially brought back Andy Pettitte on a one-year deal, though, the Joba Debate has again hit the front burner. Some fans and writers theorize that the addition of Pettitte-combined with the depth of Phil Hughes and Alfredo Aceves-opens up the gates for Chamberlain to move back into a relief role, where he has been dominant bridging the gap to Mariano Rivera to this point of his young career.

Not so fast.

New York general manager Brian Cashman informed Chamberlain in November that he will begin the year in a starting role-where he can add the most value to his club. The flamethrowing right-hander, outside of his brilliant run pitching high-leverage situations for the Yankees in 2007, has been a starter for most of his life, from his days as a prep/collegiate pitcher in Nebraska to his time in the minors.

There are certainly concerns about whether or not Chamberlain can remain durable pitching more than 150-plus innings. At such a young age, it is obviously in the Yankees' best interest to be conservative with such a rare talent; hence the Joba Rules. Those in the relief camp cite this as key factor in their argument, saying that he is more likely to remain healthy pitching in the bullpen, where there will be less of a toll on his arm. He also has the make-up to close, they say, and is a potential successor to Rivera, who unseated John Wetteland after he left the organization following the Yanks' World Series championship in 1996, as the closer in the Bronx. He certainly proved himself to be a worthy future closing candidate in '07, when he posted a 0.38 ERA, 1,192 ERA+, 1.82 FIP, fielding independent pitching, clip and 0.750 WHIP in 24.0 innings pitched. The youngster quickly became a Yankee fan favorite, as the fans were enthralled by his demeanor, mid-90s heat, intensity and tremendous success. He did what any team wants out of a reliever, avoiding home runs and walks while missing bats; he struck out 12.75 hitters per nine innings, with 34 Ks against only six walks.

While there are legitimate injury concerns and Rivera cannot possibly pitch so effectively forever, though, why not give Chamberlain the chance to prove that he can handle the workload and stress on his arm that comes from pitching every fifth day? The bottom line is this: a pitcher with his stuff and talent could emerge as an elite front-line arm, adding depth to a pitching staff that is already among the best in the league. Even an average starter adds more value over the course of a regular season than a plus relief man, which is really the main thing to consider here.

Chamberlain, though, has a chance to be special even at this stage. Although it was a small sample size, he was effective taking the hill in the early innings in 2008. In 12 starts, he struck out 74, against 25 walks, while posting a 2.76 ERA in 65.1 innings pitched. Overall, he was again a dominant force in Pinstripes, producing rates of 10.58 K/9 and 0.45 HR/9 in 42 total appearances combined between both roles. The 23-year-old right-hander finished the year with a 2.60 ERA, 171 ERA+ and 2.65 FIP mark.

While injuries held him back, Chamberlain was lights-out when he was on the hill. His stuff is just off the charts. The 6-foot-2, 230-pounder threw his fastball 62.3 percent of the time in '08, averaging 95.0 MPH on the radar gun. He mixed in a slider (avg velocity: 85.1) 25.2 percent of the time, and also flashed a curveball and changeup. While he certainly would throw with more velocity in short bursts (97.0 MPH avg fastball MPH as a reliever in '07), he has shown the ability to sit in the low-to-mid-90s for multiple innings.

What GM would not give a pitcher with that stuff a chance to start if they can handle the duty? Sure, the Yankees have some other options, with less depth in its relief corps. However, the American League East is a division that may end up being decided by which is team is least affected by injuries, especially when it comes to starting pitching. It is unlikely that every pitcher penciled in the New York five will avoid going to a DL at some point. Whether it is the injury-prone A.J. Burnett or even Chamberlain, an arm will go down. It is a numbers game, though. Having more options prepares the Yanks better for any potential injury situation. Aceves is not exactly a sure thing to replicate his success, either, and there is no telling what New York will get from talented-but-inexperienced Hughes.

Plus, Chamberlain is good enough to emerge as one of the best starters on the roster as he continues to get more seasoning at the major league level. One good thing about the return of Pettitte and the other free-agent signings, though, is that he will not need to be. He can be put in a four or five spot, potentially missing a few starts here or there to limit his innings. If he does indeed get injured, he can always go back to relieving, regaining his title as the successor to Rivera. The all-time great closer is amazingly coming off one of his best stints ever at 39 years old, though, and still has a few years left in him.

In the meantime, the Yankees have the opportunity to see if they have something special in Chamberlain. Thus, there is no rush. He would have to be dominant in the pen to provide more value than if was even an average starter; the Yankees, therefore, have a much greater chance of winning the AL East with him in the rotation.

Most relievers are relievers for a reason: they could not cut it in a starting role, either due to arm trouble or ineffectiveness. The verdict is still out on whether or not Chamberlain falls into that category. The Yankees are doing the right thing.

Thursday Links:

Want to be a GM? Well, check out MLB Front Office Manager from 2K Sports. This looks like a really fun video game. Billy Beane is the perfect guy to be on the cover, but will there be a Front Office Manager curse?

Will McDonald offers his take on the Zack Greinke extension here.

Desmond Jennings was ranked as the third-best hitting prospect in the Rays system over at RaysProspects.com. Andrew Leslie has a nice profile on Jennings, who was recently named by Keith Law as one of the premier outfield prospects in the game.

Leslie writes,

"Jennings' tools all rate as average or better. An excellent defensive outfielder, Jennings uses his elite speed to chase down balls in center and has an average arm. At the plate he has the ability to drive the ball to all fields and has some power potential, although it has not shown up in games yet. Jennings' strike zone judgment is also exceptional as he works counts well and isn't afraid to take a walk. His willingness to take pitches and get on base coupled with elite speed makes Jennings a model leadoff hitter."

If Jennings can stay healthy, he is going to be a special talent. I am anxious to see what 2009 will hold in store for him.

Poster rglass44 takes a look at the 2009 projections for Tampa Bay relievers over at DRaysBay.

Dany Perry comes up with some potential suitors for Ben Sheets in his article over at Fox.

Back at it with another edition of Around The Majors tomorrow. Devin Mesoraco, the Reds' first-round pick in 2007, is scheduled to come on as a guest. The show is at 1:00 Eastern on Thursday. Use the media player to listen live.

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

Recently got to vote for the worst general managers in baseball over at Dugout Central. The vote will run later this week, which I will link to.

My first choice was Jim Bowden. Here is the piece I wrote to accompany my selection:

Once Bill Bavasi was finally fired by the Seattle Mariners, Jim Bowden officially took over the title of worst general manager in baseball.

Bowden was simply a terrible hire for a rebuilding franchise like the Washington Nationals. Rather than make it his first priority to improve the Nationals' minor league system by devoting the proper resources to the draft, player development, international scouting and other areas, he has consistently traded away his cheap, young players (assets) for more expensive, often times less productive, veterans who are past their prime and on the decline; he just loves those former Cincinnati Reds. Rebuilding is a concept that he does not understand, it seems, perhaps most evident by his lifetime winning percentage of .480 and seven consecutive losing seasons as a GM. For a team that needs to commit to rebuilding mode, becoming myopic and wasting millions on veterans to serve as a quick fix only prolongs consistent losing. He apparently did not get that memo.

Bowden has a poor track record in the draft, especially for an executive with a scouting background and who is behind the eight ball when it comes to using advanced statistical analysis. It is crucial for any GM, especially for a small-market team with scarce resources, to develop a sustainable long-term vision for their franchise. With Bowden, though, he is seemingly on a misguided mission to top the 70-win plateau every year, rather than doing what is necessary for his team to actually become a legitimate contender in the future. The Nationals need a leader with patience and a solid business model. Rather than exploiting inefficiencies, though, Bowden creates inefficiencies for the elite GMs in the league to exploit themselves.

Perhaps most concerning, Bowden has not been able to acquire enough high-level talent in the draft throughout his career. The Nationals' failure to lock up Aaron Crow over the difference of about what a mediocre middle reliever will demand on the free agent market is a perfect recent example. Crow, one of the premier collegiate right-handers in the nation out of the University of Missouri, decided to sign a contract with an Independent League team and will re-enter the draft again in 2009. Although Washington will now have another first-round pick next June, it missed out an opportunity to add some much-needed elite talent to its depleted farm system right away, losing a year of potential development. Speaking of which, the Nationals' farm system was recently ranked by ESPN Insider Keith Law as 29th in Major League Baseball, as several of the higher-rated players in the organization had down performances, taking a step backwards. For a team that went 59-102 and posted a -184 run differential (no typo there) in 2008, that is not a good sign that the big league product is going to get better anytime soon.

Bowden is equally incompetent when it comes to building a roster at the major league level. He seems to love toolsy outfielders and veterans, but has been unable to turn his few above-average major league players into quality packages of prospects by selling high at the right time.

As well, an effective general manager needs to be open minded to all information, regardless of the source (scouting/advanced statistical analysis), using the right mixture of both schools of thought when it comes to the evaluation process. Bowden, however, has been close minded when it comes to the newer metrics, ignoring tools at his disposal that could undoubtedly help him do his job more effectively and run a more cost-efficient club.

Bowden grabbed headlines when he put his name in the hat for Mark Teixeira earlier this winter, despite the fact that his team is more than one player away from playing meaningful baseball games. In fact, the Nats are practically half a roster away, and, based on the current status of the minor league system, there is no telling how long even an effective rebuilding process would take to turn the ship around. As good as Teixeira is, signing the switch-hitting slugger, at that price, would have been a poor business and financial decision. The short-term increase at the ticket window would have quickly worn off as Washington made its way to the cellar of the National League East by May; on-field success dictates attendance, studies have shown, not a local hero or star power. Hopefully, that $180-million used to make the offer will now be used to improve the system, with stud college right-hander Stephen Strasburg expected to demand big-time dollars as the first overall pick, which belongs to the perennial-losing Nats, in the upcoming draft. In addition to their other early picks, draft day in '09 will be a huge opportunity to improve the organizational depth, but the proper money must be invested. Bowden has to be aggressive, going over slot when necessary. A failure to lock up those early picks next June (especially Strasburg), though, would be indefensible.

From how Bowden handled the impending departure of Alfonso Soriano in 2006 to the misguided Cristian Guzman contract, he has made consistent mistakes that have only set the franchise back. By the way, when scouts talk about fiscal responsibility with Crow, how can they defend the Guzman signing? That contract is a textbook example of fiscal irresponsibility.

With so many talented GM candidates out there looking for a shot, it is truly mind boggling that Bowden has kept his job this long. Loyalty and relationships (with the Nats ownership group) are nice; winning is better. The Nats need to add on an Andrew Friedman-type, a leader with patience and a vision. Bodwen does not have many fans within the industry for a variety of other reasons as well, from his allegedly unethical negotiating tactics and legendary ego to his reported role in the skimming scandal this summer. Unfortunately, he does not get bonus points for riding around on a Segway.

On the current course and with Bowden at the helm, baseball in the Capital will continue to lose relevance while the team remains the joke of the league. Until there is a change in leadership, it seems unlikely that the Nationals can reverse their fortunes. Seriously, how many chances can one man get?

Agree? Disagree? Let me know.

MLB Links:

Rich Lederer's latest.

Reds fan? Then check out this video of right-handed pitching prospect Kyle Lotzkar.

Keith Olbermann wrote the foreword for the new Baseball Prospectus annual. I thought that was interesting, but I know I can't wait to get my hands on a copy of the book. It's a must read for any baseball fan who wants to understand the game better. You can pre-order a copy today for only $14.26. From where I'm standing, that's some pretty good value there, a cost-efficient purchase that would make Andrew Friedman blush.

Tommy Rancel had a good post on some promising low-level pitching prospects in the Tampa Bay Rays' system.

Richard Justice should be better than this. Seriously, he just should be.

Back at it with another episode of Around The Majors at 1:00 Eastern on Tuesday. Jake Cohen will be the co-host. We are going to be discussing Jeff Kent's Hall candidacy, Ryan Howard's arbitration case and some other MLB notes. Eric Stephen of TrueBlueLa.com is scheduled to come on to discuss Kent and the Dodgers. Jeff Moore, who writes for Dugout Central and Fox Sports, is then scheduled to come at 2:00 to discuss the Baltimore Orioles and Philadelphia Phillies. Use the media player below to listen.

Update: You can now listen to the archived version of the show. We touch on Ned Colletti and the Dodgers at the halfway point. We start with some Ryan Howard/Kent debate. Feel free to use the media player to check us out.

Note: This article was originally posted on Dugout Central.

The New York Yankees are entertaining offers for outfielders Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher according to the rumor wire.

With a current logjam in the outfield, there has been a lot of debate over which player should be dealt. New York general manager Brian Cashman has said that he would prefer to keep Swisher, who has drawn more interest from suitors.

Cashman has this right. He would be wise to try to shop Nady, whose value may never be higher. Granted, the Yankees are not going to part ways with either player unless the organization gets significant value in return, helping to address a perceived need. After all, the Yankees could always make a similar move before the trade deadline in July, meaning there is no rush. Plus, perhaps New York will decide to hold onto each player, with designated hitter/spare outfielder Hideki Matsui an injury risk and unmovable due to his contract. The less time Matsui is forced to play the outfield, the better.

More than likely, though, only one player out of the pair will report to Tampa for spring training at the end of next month.

If a Yankee outfielder is indeed moved, Nady should be the one to go. For investors in the financial markets or general managers in sports, selling high is an effective strategy. As any wise GM would know, it is better to trade a player too early than too late.

With Nady, who becomes a free agent at the end of 2009, there is no telling if he will play well enough this spring and early-summer to merit the same interest in July that he could generate in the upcoming weeks. He is coming off the strongest performance of his career, having posted a line of .305/.357/.510 with 25 home runs and a personal-best 128 OPS+ in 148 games combined between New York and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Each total in his slash stats line represents a career high.

Before being traded right before the deadline on July 26, Nady was on a tear. In the best start of his pro tenure, he was hitting a robust .330/.383/.535 for the Pirates. The man was hitting so well, in fact, that one could argue his trade value will never be as high as it was back in July when he made the move to the Bronx.

Facing American League East pitching made things a bit more challenging for Nady, who hit .268/.320/.474 with a 105 OPS+ in 228-at bats for the Yankees. While he was not quite as productive, he quickly became a fan favorite upon his return to New York, anyway. He delivered some big hits down the stretch, finishing with 12 homers for his new team. Whether he deserves the "clutch" label that was commonly attached to his name is a topic for another day, but Yankee fans are quick to point to his .311 batting average and .506 slugging percentage with men on base and .307 hitting clip with runners in scoring position in 2008.

Regardless, it is a perfect opportunity for Cashman to sell high on Nady.

Swisher offers more value to the Yankees, anyway. For starters, he is extremely versatile; in addition to being able to play multiple outfield spots effectively, he can fill-in at first base if needed. Also, he is under team control until 2011 at a total cost of $21M. Nady, on the other hand, becomes a free agent next winter - and he's a Scott Boras client.

Swisher is also a strong candidate to rebound. After being traded to the Chicago White Sox for several prospects, expectations were high for the switch-hitting slugger. Despite moving into a hitters' park, US Cellular Field, he struggled through a disappointing debut in the Windy City, batting only .219/.332/.410 with a career-low 92 OPS+. Although he hit 24 home runs and continued to draw walks at an outstanding rate (14.2 %), he was brought down by the lowest batting average of his career, even losing playing time as the White Sox pushed towards a division title in the AL Central. Swisher continued to struggle as the season wore on, hitting just .191/.298/.427 after the All-Star break.

As many predicted, Swisher was a much better hitter at home as well. In fact, 19 out of his 24 homers came in Chicago, where he posted an .878 OPS. On the road, however, he managed only a .189 hitting mark (compared to .247 at home) and .595 OPS in 238 at-bats.

Which means that Swisher can only go up - unlike Nady. Compared to the return that Billy Beane reeled in last offseason for Swisher, Cashman was wise to exploit the perceived drop in value when he acquired him earlier this winter, sending a few expendable pieces to Chicago in the perfect example of an excellent buy-low opportunity.

Swisher is still a talent who has averaged 28 homers and 91 walks since breaking into the league at 23 years old in 2004. He is a breakout candidate for another reason as well - the plexiglass principle.

Swisher, it seems, was done in by sheer bad luck, causing his average to hover near the Mendoza line. He posted an unusually low batting average on balls in play, producing a .251 mark. His '08 BABIP was by far the lowest of his career - his previous totals fall at .277, .266, .287, .308 from '04-'07, respectively. Interestingly, his line drive rate of 20.9% was a personal best. According to an article co-authored by Peter Bendix and Chris Dutton in the Hardball Times, he was the fifth-unluckiest player in the Majors in '08, based on his xBABIP (expected batting average on balls in play).

Swisher is also a durable performer, having played in 150-plus games in each of the last three seasons. Nady has never eclipsed that plateau, due to injuries and teammates blocking him from playing full time. He brings a completely different set of offensive skills to the table as well, with the ability to post a consistent average in the .280 range. His plate discipline is a bit concerning, though, as he has posted career rates of 6.6 BB% and 19.9 K%.

An aggressive free-swinger, Nady has a career .335 on-base percentage; he is the type of player who has to hit a lot to drive his OBP to league average levels. Despite a 36-point disadvantage in average, Swisher has the edge in career OBP by 19 points. The Yankees have to pick their poison.

However, for those who picture Nady becoming a fixture in right field at New Yankee Stadium, think again; hold off on the Yankeeography, YES Network. His skill set is just not all that irreplaceable, especially considering that the Yankees' financial resources will always allow them to go out and address a need for a power-hitting corner outfielder via free agency.

More important, Nady and Swisher are likely headed in different directions. Cashman already bought low. It is now time for him to sell high. Assuming there is enough value offered in return to allow him to pull the trigger, Nady should be the one who is forced to pack his bags.

What do you think, Yankee fans?

To reach Tyler Hissey, send an email to TylerHissey@gmail.com.

I recently had the chance to vote in the Dugout Central pre-season N.L. Rookie of the Year ballot.

My Top 5 selections:

1. Cameron Maybin, OF- Florida Marlins
   
2. Colby Rasmus, OF- St. Louis Cardinals
   
3. Tommy Hanson, RHP- Atlanta Braves
   
4. Andrew McCutchen, OF- Pittsburgh Pirates
   
5. Dexter Fowler, OF- Colorado Rockies
   

I am having second thoughts about my ballot, especially now that the Braves are probably going to be more patient with Hanson after signing Kenshin Kawakami and Derek Lowe. Maybin is a nice talent who grades out exceptionally from a tools standpoint, but his poor strikeout rates are concerning to me a little bit. He had a fine September call-up, after putting up a line of .277/.375/.456 and striking out in 31.8 percent of his plate appearances at Double-A. I think that he will be given the chance to take on a major role for the Florida Marlins, but I--others agree--am not entirely sure that he will light up the Senior Circuit in his debut. Still, he has the best shot of doing enough to merit consideration for top rookie honors, in my opinion.

Rasmus is probably going to get the chance to emerge in St. Louis, though the organization has not dealt away a left-handed-hitting outfielder yet. And it does not seem likely to happen at this point.

Matt Gamel is another guy who deserves consideration, too, and he could easily have cracked my list.

Maybin, by the way, won the majority vote on the site.

It is still to premature, but it is fun to speculate and make predictions. Who would you pick? Make a case.

Also, for those of you who are interested, Teddy and I are continuing our division-by-division breakdown with the AL Central this afternoon at 1:00 Eastern. Seth Sohs of the popular Twins site sethspeaks.net is scheduled to come on to offer his take on the Minnesota Twins.

Use the player to listen live.