
Hate him or love him, Scott Boras is quite good at his job. Boras received mixed reviews for his offseason this past winter--seemingly misreading the demand for Jason Varitek and Manny Ramirez--but ended up landing several major contracts for his clients in a tough market. From robbing Omar Minaya blind with Oliver Perez to the massive Mark Teixeira signing, the so-called super agent again was indeed on the better end of most negotiations.
While the class is not quite as deep, the Boras Corporation represents several big-name clients eligible for free agency in 2010 as well. There is certainly a lot of baseball left to be played, but here is an update on how Boras' free-agent eligible clients are performing. In the first edition of a two-part series, here is a list of his position player clients. All free agent/client data courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors (stats through Monday night).
Catchers:
Ivan Rodriguez: Rodriguez signed a one-year deal with the Houston Astros in the middle of spring training. After a slow start, the veteran backstop has picked it up as of late. He is currently batting .273/.318/.495 with four home runs, 14 RBIs and a 109 OPS+. His .273 wOBA is hardly anything to write home about, obviously, and his aggressive approach has continued to prove problematic; he has walked in only 5.7 percent of his plate appearances while producing a 22.2% strikeout rate.
At 37 years old, Rodriguez will never be the same hitter that he was during his prime. He no longer lives up to his defensive reputation, either, and it is hard to overlook the fact that he has not posted an OPS+ above the league-average 100 barometer since 2004, when he hit .334/.383/.510 in a monster performance for the Detroit Tigers. Given that he has been worth just under 2.0 WAR in 2007 and 2008, he still can add some value in the right situation.
Rodriguez is only going to drop off even more offensively, though. Opposing pitchers are exploiting his aggressive approach and declining physical skills, pounding him in with sliders. Even in a better market--and with enhanced numbers from playing in Houston's Minute Maid Park--Boras will have a tough time getting anything more than his current figures.
Jason Varitek: Varitek had a nightmare '08 offensively, batting just .220/.313/.359 with a 73 OPS+. Despite making another All-Star appearance, his lack of production at the plate was damning to any hopes that he had of cashing in on one final long-term contract; according to FanGraphs, he produced -13.7 runs below a replacement-level hitter. Overall, the Boston Red Sox fixture and fan favorite was worth 1.2 WAR, putting him nearly $5-M below his salary on the dollars earned/made bar.
In large part due to his Type A free agent status, there was a minimal demand for Varitek in the offseason. Boras was mocked publicly when he began using Jorge Posada and his deal with the New York Yankees as a benchmark for what he expected for the Captain. After a long winter of negotiations, Varitek ended up in the only place that made sense all along--Boston. The Red Sox refused to part with valuable pitching prospects for any young catching replacements, leaving the club with limited options. Also accounting for his defensive value and ability to handle, and rapport, with Red Sox pitchers, Boston inked the veteran to a one-year contract with a $5-M club option for '10; the player has a $3-M option. As the only organization that would not have had to incur the cost of any draft picks, the thought processes to bring him back were sound.
Varitek is not exactly tearing it up at the dish so far this spring. He has posted a line of .227/.324/.443 with four home runs and a 93 OPS+ in 102 plate appearances. The 37-year-old switch-hitter has been worth -0.6 batting runs, but it is encouraging that his line drive rate is up to 18.3%; he produced line drives in only 13.6% of his plate appearances in '08.
If Varitek continues to struggle at the plate, the intangible police will show up again--with Boras leading the charge--citing stats such as catchers' ERA to prove his value to the Red Sox's pitching staff. Barring a major collapse the rest of the way, though, odds are his option will get picked up.
Second basemen:
Alex Cora: Cora served as a nice utility infielder in Boston after coming over from the Cleveland Indians in a trade back in 2005. Thanks to having good teammates, he even picked up a ring in '07, playing in 83 games for the World Series champions.
Cora is what he is: a versatile defender who can play all three skill infield positions at around an average level. He has never been much of an offensive force, obviously, and most of his value therefore comes from his glove work. His best stat line with the Red Sox came in '08, when he hit .270/.371/.349 in 232 plate appearances. He does not offer much in the power department (career ISO of .103 and .349 slugging percentage), but, in the right role, he can help a team without crippling its offensive attack if he does not receive too many at-bats.
Cora latched on with the New York Mets over the winter, adding depth up the middle in Queens. The 12-year veteran is off to a fine start, hitting a robust .333/.425/.455 in 43 plate appearances while providing his usual defensive services. At 33, his window for being talented enough to merit any type of roster spot is closing fast. He can still play shortstop, which is valuable, but his UZR figures at the position are trending downwards (4.4, 3.1, -1.7 from '06-'08, respectively) as he continues to lose range. Once the shortstop option goes, so will his career.
Boras will find him a job in a short-term scenario if he remains healthy and relatively effective with the glove.
Felipe Lopez: The Arizona Diamondbacks have really struggled to score runs as a team. Lopez, however, does not deserve any of the blame--at least so far. The switch-hitting second baseman is one of only three regulars on the D'Backs with a league-average OPS+ or better, along with Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton. He is leading the team with a .323 batting average to along with a .383 OBP and .496 slugging percentage.
Lopez also owns a .382 wOBA right now, which ranks sixth among all second basemen in the majors. His .374 batting average on balls in play will regress back to the mean, but he should be able to sustain his 18.9% line drive rate. The former first-round pick is also hitting for power, with 14 extra-base hits and a .173 ISO.
Lopez, an All-Star and National League Silver Slugger award winner with the Cincinnati Reds back in 2005, has frustrated scouts and analysts alike for a long time. After being included in the infamous trade between the Reds and Washington Nationals, in which an injured Gary Majewski was sent west in what appeared to be a fleecing of Wayne Krivsky, his career hit the skids and nearly bottomed out in the nation's Capital. He reached his low point last summer, as a paltry .234/.305/.314 line and 63 OPS+ ran him out of Washington. The processes were solid behind that trade for the Nats, by the way, but the results were not; Lopez put up a .564 OPS in 1,354 plate appearances while Austin Kearns forgot how to hit as well.
Lopez then resurfaced with the St. Louis Cardinals, for whom he found his stroke and managed to bat a circuit-best .385/.426/.538 in 169 plate appearances from August 6 on. The sample size is still relatively small, but he has not stopped hitting since. He will regress, but his new home ballpark will help his output a lot. The 29-year-old middle infielder is also a just above-average second baseman and has only dropped in the red in UZR at second base one time in his career.
Lopez, who Arizona added to replace departed second baseman Orlando Hudson, will make $3.5-M in '09. Worth 1.1 WAR already, that type of money will likely represent a major bargain for the Snakes. If the production continues, he will get paid handsomely next winter.
Third basemen:
Adrian Beltre: Beltre got his big pay day back in '04, receiving $64-M over five years to become the starting third baseman for the Seattle Mariners. The then-25-year-old, coming of a breakout campaign, produced an excellent line of .334/.388/.629 during his walk year. He led the league with 48 home runs while posting a career-high 163 OPS+ for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Equally impressive, Beltre ranked as one of the premier defenders at the hot corner in the game, ending with a personal-best 23.1 UZR. When accounting for defense, offense, and positional factors, he produced 10.0 WAR, according to FanGraphs; amazingly, his on-field production was worth a figure north of $30.0-M.
Since arriving to Seattle, however, Beltre has yet to come close to matching that outstanding level of production overall, especially offensively. He has failed to top the 30-home run plateau while playing in cavernous Safeco Field, causing many to label him a free-agent bust. While he has never been the same hitter, though, he has still earned his contract by providing top-notch defense; in fact, he has been seriously undervalued during his M's career, since many casual fans do not understand the full extent of how many runs he chops off with his play at third base.
From 2006-'08, Beltre has averaged 3.9 WAR. He has exceeded his salary, based on the wins that he provides his team over a replacement-level player, on two different occasions as a Mariner. During that time span he has posted OPS+ totals of 105, 112 and 109 from '06-'08, respectively. A lot of the value that he provides, though, comes from his glove. Outside of a -3.3 UZR total back in '07, he has been worth more than eight fielding runs above average since advanced defensive data became available back in 2002.
Beltre will turn 31 in '10, so he is clearly past his peak. He has a lot of baseball left in him, though, and, as front offices continue to come up with better ways to quantify defense, odds are he will be paid what he is worth upon hitting free agency again.
Beltre will have to pick it up with his bat for this to happen. He has gotten off to a rough start, posting a .260 wOBA in his first 32 games; he has produced -7.9 batting runs. For those scoring at home, the only other third baseman in all of baseball with a worse wOBA is Ty Wigginton. He has hit only a single home run while walking just five times (3.8 BB%) in 136 plate appearances; the left side of the M's infield must be allergic to drawing walks or something, with shortstop Yuinesky Betancourt also boasting a sub-4.00 BB%. Boras has to be hoping that the Seattle infielder will be able to improve upon his .234/.265/.328 line and 58 OPS+, as, along with Matt Holliday, two of his prized clients are underperforming and may end up significantly affecting his bank account. Beltre has remained one of the smoothest, premier defenders around (3.0 UZR, 12.6 UZR/150), but the bat must come around if he wishes to prove the walk-year clich
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