About Me:
I love baseball. In addition to this site, I am the editor of Around The Majors. To check out my work, follow the link http://mvn.com/aroundthema...
About Me:
I love baseball. In addition to this site, I am the editor of Around The Majors. To check out my work, follow the link http://mvn.com/aroundthema...
About Me:
I love baseball. In addition to this site, I am the editor of Around The Majors. To check out my work, follow the link http://mvn.com/aroundthema...
Tuesday, December 30, 2008, 07:15 PM EST
[General]
Update: Through my work at Dugout Central, this article is now up on the main section of the Fox MLB site.
A lot has been said about the New York Yankees' recent
spending.
The bottom line is that the Steinbrenner brothers are taking
the Yankees' revenues and putting them back into improving the product on the
field. Hal and Hank could be pocketing the leftovers, but instead the family
continues to do what it thinks is the best way to uphold the Steinbrenner
doctrine: win the World Series at all costs. (Let us save the salary cap
conversation for another day, but this would only increase profits for owners,
shifting the money from the players to those running the teams.)
What baseball fan would not want the owner of their favorite
team to do the same?
With the recent signings of CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira, New
York now has four of the highest-paid players in
baseball history on its 25-man roster: Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Sabathia
and Teixeira.
The Yankees also added prized right-hander A.J. Burnett this
winter, spending a cool $82.5-million over five years.
Despite throwing nearly a half-billion on a handful of free
agents, however, New York's
payroll is going to go down for 2009,
with nearly $90-million coming off the books.
As the Tampa Bay Rays showed the world, payroll does not
always dictate on-field performance, anyway. Smart management can trump
finances through exploiting inefficiencies in the market. However, the Yankees,
at least in the short term, are loaded, currently hovering near
"best-in-baseball" status. Unlike its past infatuation with quantity over
quality-Carl Pavanno, Jaret Wright, among others-New York
flexed their financial muscle to add three of the premier players on the market
in a deep free-agent class.
Good for them.
After failing to reach the postseason, it seems, Brian
Cashman was not messing around.
But Cashman really had no other choice.
The American League East in 2009 may end up as one of the
strongest divisions in baseball history. Unfortunately, there is going to be an
odd team out between the Boston Red Sox, Rays and Yankees, three Top-10
organizations that would all be favorites to win practically every other
division.
The Teixeira signing came as a surprise, but instantly makes
the Yankees the favorite out of those three. Even with the addition of Burnett
and Sabathia, one could make a strong argument that this was not the case-in
fact, from where I am standing, they were looking up at Boston
and Tampa Bay-until
New York added the talented
switch-hitting slugger.
Teixeira, who will turn 29 in April, is the best first
baseman in the majors not named Albert Pujols and is entering his prime. He has
produced a career batting line of .290/.378/.541 with a 134 OPS+, having
averaged 36 home runs and 121 RBIs per 162 games in six seasons to this point.
Although he did not come cheap, as a model of consistency, he was the safest bet
among the available free agents.
Teixeira is also coming off his best offensive performance
to date, as he posted a career-high 151 OPS+ combined between the Atlanta
Braves and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in a fine campaign. Essentially, he
adds excellent on-base skills, plus power and the ability to drive in runs to
the middle of an aging New York
lineup. Combined with Rodriguez, the Yankees now have one of, if not, the most
dangerous 1-2 hitting duos in all of baseball.
In addition, Teixeira is an excellent defender at first
base-a major defensive upgrade over Jason Giambi. Considering how bad the
Yankees' infield defense was in 2008, this is huge. The consistent .850-plus
OPS production and Gold Glove-caliber defense that he brings to the table is
hard to argue with. The man, make no mistake about it, is one of the elite
players in the league, adding value on both sides of the ball.
Based on projections, the upgrade over Giambi should help
the Yankees win around four-to-five more games; he is projected as about eight
wins above replacement, but is not stepping in for a replacement-level player.
This makes the financial cost seem reasonable, considering how much each
additional win is worth to a franchise like the Yankees.
For year one at least (there is a lot of downside risk on
the back-end of the Burnett and Sabathia contracts), the Yankees are in
excellent shape. With that said, there are obviously no guarantees, and health
will play a major factor on which team(s) ends up advancing to the October
tournament from the A.L. East.
The Yankees are destined to improve on a run prevention
front due to the upgrade in starting pitching. They boast an excellent
rotation, barring injuries and another free-agent signing (Andy Pettitte?),
with Sabathia, Burnett, Chien-Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes.
However, there are still legitimate concerns about the team defense, which
ranked near the bottom of the A.L. in team defensive efficiency in '08. The
up-the-middle play is especially concerning, with Robinson Cano and Jeter
making up a fairly inadequate double-play combination. The lack of range in the
infield will not bode well for groundball pitchers Burnett, Sabathia and Wang,
but the pure pitching talent will, to an extent, offset the mediocrity in the defense
pillar of the run prevention equation.
There is also no telling if Jorge Posada will be able to
catch on a regular basis, either. One thing adding Teixeira does is blocks
first base as a landing spot for aging players. And the Yankees have several
candidates, including Jeter and Posada, who seemed destined for the spot when they were
forced to move off their current positions.
Outside of these concerns and a few others (how will the
outfield situation end up?), the Yankees are much improved. This is saying a
lot, because despite missing out on the postseason, New
York was actually quite strong this past season,
winning 89 games in a ridiculously competitive division. Injuries also killed
the club at inopportune times, perhaps more so than any other team. If Cano,
Jeter and others rebound offensively, the rotation remains durable and they
have better luck on the injury front, this is a team that could threaten to win
95.
There is still too much unpredictability in the
postseason-due to the small sample size-to guarantee anything. Getting to
October, though, seems like a safe bet for the boys in the Bronx,
though the pressure will be at an all-time high.
Look out, American League.
Tyler Hissey covers Major League baseball for Scout.com, serving
as the publisher of RaysDigest.com. Hissey also co-hosts Around The
Majors With Teddy and Tyler on BlogTalkRadio. The show continued
its division-by-division breakdown on Monday (1:00, Eastern), focusing
on the N.L. East. Click here to listen to the latest show.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008, 06:53 PM EST
[Trevor Hoffman]
Teddy Mitrosilis and I recently began our division-by-division breakdown on BlogTalkRadio, beginning with the National League West division. The series continued with the National League Central, and we wrapped up the Senior Circuit with the N.L. East this past Monday. Click here to listen to our latest show.
To
supplement our work via podcast, we are also going to put our work into
writing as well. In this post, we take a close look at the N.L. West,
and what to expect from each team in the division going forward in
2009. Next up is the San Diego Padres.
Recap:
Not a lot went right for the San Diego Padres in '08. From
ownership-divorce, financial issues-to a poor product on the field, it
is safe to say that it was a down year. How the franchise, which is now
officially up for sale, handled the Trevor Hoffman situation to off-field incidents with Brian Giles and Khalil Greene, it was almost a surreal nightmare. The Moore family can only hope that Goldman Sachs will find a buyer relatively quickly.
Unfortunately, things are not expected to get better anytime soon.
Offense:
It is not a secret. Petco Park is a tough place to hit, and has
been suppressing power production since its inception. Despite the
ballpark, Giles (.314 EqA) and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez (.309 EqA) put up nice offensive seasons, as did a few others.
Gonzalez, who also won a Gold Glove, batted .279/.361/.510 with
36 homers and 119 RBIs. The former first-round pick also scored a
team-best 103 runs scored while ranking first on the club with a 138
OPS+.
Giles ranked sixth in the circuit with a .398 OBP, eighth in
hitting (.306) and 10th in walks (87). A patient hitter with an
excellent approach, he produced an excellent 136 OPS+. Recent domestic
abuse accusations have shed a negative light on him as a person,
though, and the allegations could become a distraction.
Outside of Gonzalez, the rest of the infield struggled
offensively. Greene, Kevin Kouzmanoff (99 OPS+) and Tadihito Iguchi (65
OPS+) all were below-average performers at their respective positions.
Greene had a disastrous-and, boy, do I mean
disastrous-campaign. He batted only .213/.260/.339, with a 100-to-22
K/BB ratio while his defensive output also regressed to league average
levels. To make matters worse, his self-inflicted injury led to one of
the strangest union suits in history. He took out his frustrations for
his offensive struggles-a likely response for a major league hitter
with a sub-.600 OPS-by bashing his left hand against a storage chest in
the Padres' clubhouse on July 30. The unfortunate incident ended up
breaking his hand, costing him the final two months. After the grievance, it was not surprising that the former Clemson star was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals this November.
Run Prevention:
Peavy was again solid (2.60 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) but, after the trade
negotiations this winter, it will be interesting to see what happens if
he returns to San Diego. The right-hander is still likely to get dealt
at some point, as the Padres look to cut costs anyway possible. He was
the only pitcher to win more than seven games, though.
Chris Young was hurt, but is likely to rebound. Most of the rest of the group-Greg Maddux, Randy Wolf-are gone, though, and the Padres' 09 pitching staff could consist of Young and four bodies.
Hoffman, the all-time saves leader, is not coming back, either. A franchise icon, he was disappointed that Kevin Towers
would not meet with him to discuss a potential contract, following his
decision to reject their initial offer. A closer is not a luxury that a
non-contending team like the Padres can really afford, but the way in
which the situation was dealt with left a bad impression with an
already agitated fan base. The baseball decision was wise, how they
went about portraying their decision was not.
Looking Ahead:
The Padres have some young talent developing-will Matt Antonelli
emerge?-but the club is a long way from playing meaningful games, even
in their division. That extra-innings one-game playoff with the Rockies
seems like forever ago at this point. Kevin Towers is a smart general
manager, and his right-hand man, Paul DePodesta, has a brilliant
baseball mind as well. Which makes the situation all the more
surprising.
Teddy Mitrolisis and I will continue our division-by-division offseason breakdown by focusing on the N.L. East today at 1:00. We will go through and discuss all five teams in the division. Sam Page of the popular Mets blog AmazinAvenue.com is scheduled to appear as a guest to discuss the New York Mets' offseason. Use the media player to listen live.
Teddy Mitrosilis and I recently began our division-by-division breakdown on BlogTalkRadio, beginning with the National League West division. The series continued on Monday with the National League Central. This afternoon, 1:00 Eastern, we will take on the N.L. East. Click here to listen live.
To supplement our work via podcast, we are also going to put our work into writing as well. In this post, we take a close look at the N.L. West, and what to expect from each team in the division going forward in 2009. Next up is the San Francisco Giants.
Recap:
The San Fransisco Giants exceeded pre-season expectations in '08. Unfortunately, the bar was set pretty low, as PECOTA predicted the Giants to finish in last place in the division with a 68-94 record. San Fransisco-thanks to a Cy Young performance from Tim Lincecum-surpassed that total by four wins, going 72-90 to take fourth place in the lowly West.
Offense:
In the first year without Barry Bonds hitting in the middle of the lineup, the Giants struggled mightily to score runs. Not a single regular was able to produce an Equivalent Average-"a measure of total offensive value per out, with connections for league offensive level, home park and team pitching," based on the same scale as batting average-above .300. Only four hitters who received more than 400 plate appearances, in fact, were able to top the .260 EqA mark, which is league average.
With that said, it was not surprising that the Giants ranked 15th out 16 teams on the circuit with 640 runs scored. The offense combined to hit .262/.321/.382 with an anemic .703 OPS.
Bengie Molina-yes, Bengie Molina!-led the team with 16 home runs and 95 RBIs. Molina, known for his defense, compounded the offensive problems by drawing only 19 walks, however, and finished with a 98 OPS+. It could have been one of the least impressive 95-RBI performances in baseball history.
Center fielder Aaron Rowand, who was signed to a five-year, $60-million contract last offseason, ended up second on the club with 13 jacks. Rowand, however, was not the same hitter outside of Citizens Bank Park, as he produced a below-average 94 OPS+ while striking out 126 times against 44 walks. Many analysts criticized the contract that he received last winter, predicting that the 31-year-old would turn into a fourth outfielder (production wise, not based off of playing time) before the end of the deal. Making it more puzzling, it was foolish for a non-contending team like San Francisco to waste financial resources that would have been better spent addressing other, more pressing areas. No one predicted that he would plummet to that level so soon, though, as his offensive value declined while he lost a step in the outfield. Add another poor decision-a sunk cost on the books-to the Brian Sabean files.
Fred Lewis and Randy Winn, two of the only minimal bright spots on the Bay, added some value, especially defensively. Lewis posted a line of .282/.351/.440 in 468 at-bats. Winn led the team in hits, doubles, total bases and walks, hitting a team-best .306 with a .363 OBP and .426 slugging percentage.
There were not too many bright other offensive highlights, though, as a poorly constructed offensive attack consisting of over-the-hill veterans-honestly, with names like Rich Aurilia, Ray Durham, Dave Roberts and Omar Vizquel, it was as if the Giants were playing in 1999-and non-prospects sucked up way too many at-bats. Vizquel, no longer the same defender at shortstop, was practically a guaranteed out, batting only .222/.283/.267 with a 45 OPS+ in 266 at-bats. No, that is not a typo.
Run Prevention:
Luckily, the Giants had Lincecum, who somehow managed to win 18 games. The flamethrowing right-hander struck out a league-leading 265 in 227.0 innings pitched (10.51 K/9) while posting a 2.62 ERA and 167 ERA+ in 34 starts. The 24-year-old continued to prove his doubters wrong while establishing himself as a top-five starting pitcher in the majors. Sabean should be thankful that he did not end up trading his young gun to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for outfielder Alex Rios, a popular rumor last December. Even the man who gave Barry Zito $126-million and dealt away Joe Nathan and Fransisco Liriano for a few months of A.J. Piersynski would not have been able to survive that, given how Rios regressed as the former University of Washington standout continued to impress.
Lincecum's rotation mate, fellow 24-year-old righty Matt Cain, was also effective. Cain, despite an 8-14 record, posted a 3.76 ERA and 116 ERA+, striking out 186 in 227.0 innings pitched. Looking to the future, he seems like a real All-Star candidate. The emerging star has a four-pitch arsenal, with a fastball that averages out at 92.4, a slider that sits in the mid-80s, a slow curve ball that hovers between 75-76 MPH and an improving change piece that is about, on average, six miles per hour slower than his heater.
Jonathan Sanchez is another guy to keep an eye on. Sanchez missed bats to the tune of a 8.94 K/9 rate, but struggled with his consistency. If he can improve his command, though, the 26-year-old left-hander could turn into a valuable middle-of-the-rotation starter to supplement the dangerous Cain/Lincecum duo.
Things only got worse in year two of the Zito debacle, however. Although he is no longer the highest-paid pitcher in baseball with the recent CC Sabathia deal, it is safe to say the quirky southpaw is overpaid. He gained a bit of velocity back on his fastball in the second half, but the former Cy Young winner posted a 5.15 ERA and 85 ERA+ on the way to a 17-loss campaign. Opponents batted .270/.350/.412 against him, the kind of offensive production that the Giants' lineup was in desperate need of.
If not for a 6-5 record and 4.52 ERA after the All-Star break, Zito would have ended up with an even more disappointing stat line. As it is, the $14.5 million dollar paycheck that he received seems like charity, with five more long seasons ahead, barring an unlikely occurrence in which he can shed the bust label, before his salary comes off the books.
The Giants' relief corps was not exactly stellar, either. The bullpen posted a 4.45 ERA, which was good for 14th in the N.L.
Brian Wilson, who represented San Francisco at the All-Star game, picked up 41 saves as the closer. Wilson, however, is proof that closers are made, not born. He produced rates of 9.67 K/9 and 4.04 BB/9 while blowing six saves and posting a fairly high 4.62 ERA and below-average 95 ERA+ and 1.44 WHIP in 62.1 innings pitched. He has a mid-90s heater, but his secondary offerings leave a lot to be desired.
Tyler Walker was fairly mediocre as well, but Alex Hinshaw (10.66 K/9) and Keiichi Yabu logged some impressive innings.
Making what Lincecum was able to accomplish all the more impressive-in addition to the lack of run support-the Giants' team defense was poor, also. The defense, in fact, converted only 68.5 percent of batted balls hit into play into outs, coming in near the bottom, at 13, in team defensive efficiency. The outfield defense was fairly solid, but there were considerable holes in the infield, especially with the loss of all-field, no-hit third baseman Pedro Feliz to free agency.
Looking Ahead:
The Giants have the chance to improve on the run prevention front, assuming that Cain and Lincecum (expect a slight regression) will continue to be effective. If the combo should falter, though, any slim chances that San Francisco has of competing could fade by the All-Star break. Sanchez could be huge, depending on whether or not he can work out his control issues. Zito will have to surprise as well.
While Sabean has been responsible for his fair share of mistakes-the Zito deal makes me ashamed to share the same alma mater-he has surprisingly made a few acceptable decisions this offseason already. His best move might have came last week, when he signed veteran left-hander Randy Johnson to a one-year, eight-million dollar deal. This adds another solid arm to the middle of the starting rotation. Johnson, though he is getting up there in years, was actually one of the better starters in the N.L. in 2008, posting a 117 ERA+ in 184.0 innings pitched. The left-hander is only five wins away from 300 as well, and his pursuit of the milestone will be a ticket draw that will attract attention regardless of how the poor offense is performing.
Sabean also signed one of the best relievers available, Jeremy Affeldt, at a relatively low cost. Affeldt, seemingly looking for financial security, decided to sign right away, given the apparent surplus of quality high-impact relief arms on the market. He agreed to a two-year deal, worth $8-million. Unlike the Zito debacle, this agreement is great for the Giants for two reasons: its length and undervalued price.
Affeldt quietly put together an impressive campaign for the Cincinnati Reds in 2008. The 29-year-old left-hander posted a 3.33 ERA in 74 appearances, mostly pitching in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. His peripherals were even more impressive, as he produced rates of 9.19 K/9, 2.87 BB/9 and 3.1 K/BB in 78.1 innings pitched. He provides a potential capable replacement to Wilson, but will likely add even more value pitching in high-leverage situations in the seventh and eighth innings. In addition, Affeldt, as a Type B free agent, will not cost San Francisco a draft pick.
The Giants also committed $18.5-mil to shortstop Edgar Renteria, essentially ending the days of Vizquel taking up innings at the position in the Bay area. Renteria did not receive an arbitration offer from the Detroit Tigers following a dismal return to the American League. He posted a weak line of .270/.317/.382 as his OPS dropped from .860 to .699 in a two-year span. His arm strength and range also continued to decline, leaving the Tigers with little return on their investment as Jair Jurrjens emerged as a capable major league starter for the Atlanta Braves.
For these reasons, many analysts were skeptical of the signing at first. Looking closer, it seems like a smart choice. Considering the market for shortstops and the short length, the cost is not all that substantial. Renteria, who was out of shape for most of '08, is also likely to rebound a bit offensively. He is moving into a hitters' park and back into the National League, where he has been a five-time All-Star. The defensive drop off has been pretty significant-the advanced metrics are definitely not his friend-but he should settle into a middle-of-the-pack overall player at the position, providing a short-term upgrade over any other internal options without setting the franchise back in the future.
It is unlikely that San Francisco will contend next season-though there are some prospects on the way, including Nate Schierholtz, who should play a role in '09. In the N.L. West, though, anything is possible, and it hard not to like the Giants' starting rotation.
Saturday, December 27, 2008, 03:26 PM EST
[General]
The Cincinnati Reds have signed free agent
center fielder Willy
Taveras to a two-year contract. Taveras, it seems, is expected to take over
as the Reds' leadoff hitter and center fielder.
While financial figures have not been disclosed yet, this move is downright unacceptable--on many different levels.
First, the Reds witnessed first hand the consequences of batting a low-OBP
hitter in the leadoff spot with the Corey
Patterson debacle. Patterson, of course, was among the least effective
offensive players in the majors, batting .205/.238/.344. Despite adding some
value for his work in center field on a defensively challenged club, he was as
close to a guaranteed out as there is. In a hitters' park, the 28-year-old
former top prospect posted a 48 OPS+. Yes, 48.
The man, at this point, is a decent fourth outfielder, at best. The fact
that he was given 366 at-bats, and began the spring batting leadoff, was quite
puzzling. To say the least.
Patterson-to the delight of anyone who cares about baseball and enjoys
Graeter's Ice Cream and Skyline Chili-will never get to suck up at-bats in a
home uniform at Great American
Ball Park
ever again. Former Cincinnati
general manager Jim
Bowden, on a mission to reacquire every ineffective former Red, signed him
to a deal to bring him to the Washington Nationals earlier this month. Although
the move went under the radar, some die-hard Red fans were seen celebrating in
the streets, dreaming of the days where an adequate leadoff man will set the
table for their team.
Well, the ghost of Corey Patterson will return in the form of Taveras, and
the signing quickly ends any celebration. The newest Red was allergic to
getting on base in '08 himself, posting a terrible .308 OBP and .604 OPS in 479
at-bats with the Colorado Rockies. Yes, he posted a .604 OPS while playing his
home games at Coors Field. In the thin air of Denver.
That, my friends, is difficult to do. A 56 OPS+ is bad, embarrassingly bad.
The casual baseball fan associates bunting for hits, speed and stealing
bases with batting leadoff. This has led some to overvalue the Juan Pierre-type
player, ignoring the importance of getting on.
Taveras fits this bill as well. He paced the circuit with 68 stolen bases,
getting thrown out only seven times. This was impressive, sure, and he
certainly has plus speed.
The bottom line, however, is that Taveras makes too many outs. A leadoff
hitter, above all else, has to get on base consistently. Doing so is, by far,
the most important job for a player batting in the top spot, trumping speed or
anything else.
Dusty Baker did not understand that concept with Patterson, and Jocketty
apparently does not understand it, either.
Taveras is the type of player who will have to hit for a high batting
average to maintain an on-base clip at an acceptable level and justify playing
time. He did so in his debut with the Rockies in 2007,
when he hit .320 in 372 at-bats. This drove his OBP up to .367, by far a career
high. If the average slips at all below .300, though, he becomes too much of an
offensive liability to merit 500-plus plate appearances. Considering how
volatile BA is as a statistic, this does not bode well for him ever being an
impact offensive player. For this reason, it is unlikely that he will ever
provide enough offensive value to deserve to hit anywhere near the top of the
order.
Which makes this decision puzzling. Taveras is a capable glove man in center
field with solid range, and, as Jocketty mentioned, is another above-average
up-the-middle defender. Give him credit for addressing the Reds' poor team
defense, which converted the lowest percentage of batted balls hit into play
into outs in '08 to rank 30th in team defensive efficiency.
However, adding Taveras to the lineup does little to address the Reds'
inability to score runs. He will take away a lot of RBI chances for hitters
like Jay
Bruce and Joey
Votto, potentially crippling an offense that already has major holes to
address.
A solid core is in place in Cincy, but moves like this call into question
the thought process of those making the decisions. Jocketty did some great
things in St. Louis, but all of his talk about finding the right blend of
advanced statistical analysis and scouting seems to be just that, talk. The
Reds are unlikely to contend in '09, but have the chips in piece to strike as
we enter the next decade.
Is the right leadership in place to help them do so?
Tyler Hissey covers Major League baseball for Scout.com,
serving as the publisher of RaysDigest.com. Hissey also co-hosts Around The Majors With Teddy and Tyler on
BlogTalkRadio. The show is continuing its division-by-division breakdown on
Monday (1:00, Eastern), focusing on
the N.L. East. Click
here to listen live.