When it comes to the Buffalo Bills, most if not all the talk centers around if the franchise will even remain in the Queen City. It comes with good reason. The NFL recently announced five regular season Bills games will be played in Toronto over the next five years. Owner Ralph Wilson is approaching 90 and has stated numerous times he will not sell the team before he dies. He's also said he will not leave the team to his family after his passing. Perhaps most disturbingly, Wilson took repeated verbal shots at the sagging Buffalo economy during the press conference in Toronto. He to date has also refused to state, at least on the record, that it's his desire that whoever the next owner of the Bills becomes leaves the team in Buffalo.
What gets lost in the depressing shuffle is Buffalo isn't a bad football team. In fact, they have potential to be quite good. The Bills went 7-9 last season. This despite losing players over a dozen players to injured reserve, a third-round rookie quarterback thrusted into a starter's role just three weeks into the season, and of course the near fatal Kevin Everett tragedy.
To his credit, head coach Richard Jauron kept the team focused and hungry all season long, notwithstanding all the injuries and an overwhelming lack of experience. After all, this is a team that less than a year ago watched veteran stars London Fletcher and Nate Clements walk away for nothing, and traded well known players Willis McGahee and Takeo Spikes for what amounted to draft picks. Many experts predicted the Bills would plunge to the very bottom of the league standings, yet still managed to match their 2006 season win total of seven.
Various reports have the Bills at or near the top of the league in regards to salary cap room. One thing is certain, if this club is going to end a streak of eight straight postseason-less appearances momentous changes have to be made.
With a young team, a good amount of cap room and a fan base growing exhausted of the year-round relocation talk, this could be one of the most pivotal offseasons in franchise history.
A look at the team by position, and what they may be looking do once free agency begins on February 29...
Quarterback: While it's debatable on exactly how sold the team's fan base is on Trent Edwards; it's clear-cut from an organizational standpoint he's the present and future quarterback of the Bills. While he has a long way to go before being weighed against the upper echelon quarterbacks of the league, Edwards exceeded even the most optimistic expectations as a rookie. Conversely, JP Losman's career as a Bill is over. There is a next-to-zero chance he'll be back in 2008. The last Jauron wants/needs is any partition in the locker room, and Losman is likely to be much more vocal in his discontent remaining with the team as a backup should he not be moved. Ideally, the Bills want to get as high a draft pick as possible for Losman, but with little leverage on the trade market, it's likely they'll take less in order to liberate themselves of any potential locker room crisis.
Having said that, the Bills unmistakably need a veteran backup. One guy who might easily pop up on the radar is Miami Dolphins quarterback Cleo Lemon. Not only would Lemon come with valuable experience as a backup, more importantly he is immensely familiar with the rest of the division. Drafting a quarterback who'll have even less experience than Edwards makes no sense, unless it's a guy you're willing to give plenty of time and patience to.
Running Back: Buffalo took a chance and struck gold with rookie Marshawn Lynch in last year's draft. In his freshmen campaign, Lynch was everything the Bills could hope for and more. Despite missing three games and being the focal part of defensive coordinators, Lynch still ran for 1,115 yards and seven touchdowns. He also added 184 yards receiving and figures to have a much bigger role in the air game with Turk Schonert as new offensive coordinator. Fred Jackson finally got a chance to play after Lynch injured his ankle and shined, rushing for 300 yards, including 115 yards in his start at Washington. Jackson also showed he can be dangerous as a pass catching threat (190 yards) and should be firmly entrenched as the number two back in 2008. Although rookie DeWayne Wright didn't do much the team likes him enough that it could spell the end for veteran Anthony Thomas.
If the Bills do anything this spring it may be at fullback. Schonert will use a true two-back system in '08. The team already signed six-year veteran Darian Barnes but don't be surprised if the team takes a look at another veteran in free agency or perhaps in the middle rounds of the draft. All things considered, running back position is the slightest of the Bills worries.
Wide Receiver: The Bills could line up with Edwards, Losman, Johnny Unitas or Terry Bradshaw behind center and it wouldn't be relevant unless the club improves at this position. To be candid, the Bills aren't even close to being a contender with their current core of pass catchers. If the club has just one priority this spring, it must be improving this grossly underachieving unit. Lee Evans may or may not be a legitimate number one receiver. But one thing is certain, he got little if any help from his teammates and had trouble almost the entire season trying to shake countless double teams that constantly came his way. Partially due to all the extra attention, Evans had only 849 yards receiving in 2007, down 443 yards from a year ago. In fact, Evans had only two games all year with 100+ receiving yards, and in nine of the other 14 contests he failed to generate more than 40 yards. Having no consistent threat alongside him and a quarterback carousel throwing to him did no favors, but he still most perform much better to be considered a real number one in this league. Roscoe Parrish showed flashes of being able to make the big play, but getting open was often a problem. Josh Reed demonstrated much better hands in ridding himself of a previously deserved 'butterfingers" label, but like the rest of receivers had problems separating himself from defenders. Former starter Peerless Price was recently released and depending on how active the Bills are in free agency and the draft, Reed could be eventually joining him looking for work
It's essential to the entire offense the team finds a receiver who validly has the ability to be a starter. There are likely to be four candidates via free agency; Ernest Wilford, Justin Gage, Bryant Johnson and DJ Hackett. Of the four, Hackett probably has the most ability, but is also the most injured prone. Gage would be an ideal fit, but Tennessee has recently begun contract talks in trying to keep him from hitting free agency. Wilford probably will hit the market but the Bills will have plenty of competition in signing him. Johnston has done the least of the four, in part from playing behind Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitgerald, but also might be the most intriguing. It's probable all four guys could get contracts that exceed their value, but given the state of the position here and the Bills salary cap room, the club may be required to pay a little more than they're worth (see Derrick Dockery 2007) to secure any progress at the spot while helping the growth of Edwards. I think the pick here could be Hackett, who comes with the most risk but probably has the most upside.
Even if they sign a quality free agent, it doesn't mean the Bills will be done addressing the position. It's highly likely the club could use the 11th pick in the draft on a wide receiver. Malcomb Kelly, a big receiver from Oklahoma with soft hands and big play ability, could be the pick. It's also possible the team could move down and look at Limas Sweed or DeSean Jackson. Jackson is a speedster from California who played with Lynch, but it's questionable the Bills would want to add yet another quick but undersized receiver to the offense.
Tight End: One thing quickly became apparent once Edwards became the starter; he has a fondness for throwing to the tight end. Robert Royal and Michael Gaines combined for 50 catches, 463 yards and five touchdowns. Still, neither guy had reliable hands. In fact, both made critical drops late in games and sometimes disappeared for long stretches. While the team won't mortgage the farm on a potential free agent like Dallas Clark or trade for a Jeremy Shockey, it's very possible, in fact probable a tight end more equipped at pass catching could be coming Buffalo's way. Two possibilities are New Orleans free agent tight end Eric Johnson and Indianapolis' Ben Utecht, who comes much underrated after playing behind Clark.
Offensive Line: In Jason Peters, Derrick Dockery and Langston Walker, the Bills are rock solid with 60% of their offensive line. Peters in little time has become about as good as any left tackle in the league. Dockery, while not spectacular was a huge upgrade at left guard; which given his $7-million per year contract he signed last year he better be. Perhaps the biggest surprise and least talked about revelation of the entire 2007 season for Buffalo was the tremendous play of free agent pickup Walker. Given a five-year, $25-million contract last spring despite giving up almost 11 sacks with Oakland in 2005, the signing was questioned by many. But Walker came to Buffalo and was as reliable as any lineman on the team. One year later, he actually looks like a bargain.
That's where it gets sketchy. The Bills struggled mightily running the ball up the middle and in short yardage situations. Brad Butler started at right guard for the first time and showed potential, but is still a work in progress. Center Melvin Fowler was the weak link, often getting pushed around by the bigger nose tackles.
Jeff Faine is by far the best of available centers in free agency, but with the other needs of the team it's doubtful the club will give him the price tag he'll demand serious consideration. The more likely scenario could see the Bills using one of their third round picks (they have two) on a center to develop over the long term instead of a stop-gap solution in Faine. 2006 draft pick Aaron Merz, injured last year could become a factor at either center or guard.
Overall, the line was improved over 2006 and a year of continuity and better play calling could take another step in the right direction.
Offensive Summary :This is a unit that is likely to go as far as Ralph Wilson's pockets and the front office decide to take them. Early indications, especially from the majority of the fans' point of view aren't promising. After Marv Levy retired, Wilson promoted from within by way of naming Russ Brandon as the team's COO, foregoing a regular general manager in favor of a guy who's much more known for his marketing abilities than his football prowess. John Guy, Tom Modrak, and Jim Overdorf were all also given promotions, moves that didn't sit well with many fans and make people wonder at this late stage of Wilson's life if he's more serious about winning as opposed to filling up the stadium.
Pieces of the puzzle are already in place for a dramatic improvement over a pathetic offensive 2007. Lynch is both a workhorse and a stud. Most of the offensive line is above average, and Peters is as good as it gets as the critical let tackle spot. Edwards has the ability to be a very efficient quarterback in this league, but flat-out needs more weapons to be successful. Gaining a quality number two receiver in the free agent market, as well as an improvement at tight end is vital, and drafting the best wide receiver they can find early is equally essential.
Again, ultimately it lies on the shoulders of Wilson and what he's willing to spend to give his young core of offensive stars and first-time coordinator Schonert the tools he'll need to succeed.
Defensive End: Of all the positions on this football team, this may be where the Bills are the most powerless. In one hand, Aaron Schobel, Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denney are all good pass rushers; even if they're stats (10 sacks combined in 2007) are down. On the other, they're all dreadful against the run. The dilemma lies in so much money being devoted to this trio it's hard to validate spending significantly more in free agency. Schobel signed a massive $50.5-extension over seven years yet had a sub-par year by his standards (57 tackles, 6.5 sacks.) Kelsay somehow garnered a four-year, $24-million deal from the front office last offseason. His response? Two and a half sacks and a foot injury forcing him to miss two games late in the season and rendered ineffective thereafter. Denny broke his right foot, played in only seven games and had all of one sack. He's due $2.3-million next season. The uncertainty with the injury could make him a cap casualty, even though the team is in great cap shape.
Anthony Hargrove, the talented backup defensive end spelled trouble for opponents on the field. Unfortunately, he was even more trouble off it. He's a free agent, already suspended for the first four games next season and is a lock to not return to an organization very attentive on high character players.
So the question looms, how do the Bills get better at defensive end with so many millions already invested in Schobel, Kelsay and Denney? Even if the Bills decide to add a free agent, a marquee name isn't coming. Pittsburgh's Nick Eason, Carolina's Mike Rucker or Denver's John Engleberger could be possibilities as lower-tier signees. Jevon Kearse might be a big "name" on the market, but the last thing the Bills need is another costly pass rusher that is porous against the run.
A much more likely scenario could see Buffalo draft a defensive end to groom with a second or one of their pair of third round picks. A guy like USC's Lawrence Jackson or Virigina Tech's Chris Ellis could be intriguing in the second round. The NFL is a copycat league and the Giants showed that you can never have too many good pash rushers. Expect the Bills to address defensive end, just don't expect it to come via any expensive measures.
Defensive Tackle: There's a reason the Bills were eighth from the bottom in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. The middle of the defensive line is simply weak. Larry Tripplett (1 sack) has been a five-year, $17-million bust. He could easily be released before next season. Kyle Williams is intense and plays as hard as anyone on the team, but he's also undersized and gets pushed off the line by bigger, stronger centers and guards. Both starters are mediocre at best against the run, especially Tripplett.
Promisingly, help could be on the way without having to look too far. John McCargo was a first-round pick by Buffalo in 2006 and though he hasn't done much in his two seasons, he demonstrated when given opportunity he's capable of making big plays, as evidenced by his 2.5 sacks in limited snaps and a few big short-yardage stops late in the season.
But even with a bigger role for McCargo, the team undoubtedly needs a more brute presence in the middle. A better nose tackle would get more blockers off are already undersized defensive ends. Corey Williams (Packers) heads the list of defensive tackles hitting the market. His size and speed seem to make him the textbook fit for the club, but he's going to attract a lot of lucrative offers around the league; which the Bills probably won't match. A more realistic yet potentially valuable signing could be Oakland's Tommy Kelly. He played in only seven games last year before tearing a ligament in his right knee. But given his ability as a quick tackle and also good against the run should peak the Bills interest.
If the club decides Kelly is too risky, Randy Starks (Titans) could be a safer option. There's several tackles that may get cut before February 29, including John Thorton (Cincinnati) and Issac Sopoaga (San Francisco)
Drafting a defensive tackle early is always an alternative, but it usually takes a few years to see progress at the NFL level; unless the guy is a blue-chip prospect like a Tommie Harris, Haloti Ngata or Amobi Okoye. There will be no tackles of that quality when Buffalo picks at 11. Expect them to address this position with a middle of the road free agent, and possibly a mid-round draft choice.
Linebacker: Paul Posluszny showed excellent promise at middle linebacker for Buffalo before breaking his forearm in week three against New England. John DiGiorgio was more than adequate as a backup. Between the two the Bills should be set in the middle. Angelo Crowell didn't have quite the impact season many hoped for, but still had 126 tackles, two sacks and an interception. Not only is Crowell valuable to the team currently, but extending his contract (set to expire after 2008) should take high precedence.
The obvious weakness of this unit is linebacker Keith Ellison. He's not physical enough to take on the more powerful runners in this league and despite having a lot of athleticism, has struggled mightily in pass coverage. The Bills unmistakably need a linebacker of impact value to make the unit more viable, and will certainly take a long look at free agency to do it.
Lance Briggs is without doubt the cream of the free agent linebacking crop. The problem is with the Bills running a cash-to-cap system, they'll never be able to find the money for him. Signing Briggs and giving him $35-million in guarantees would eat most if not all their entire cash-to-cap for 2008, going by how they elect to spend their funds. Briggs is sure to get a heavy dose of bottomless pocketed owners pursuing him once February 29 hits. Don't count on the Ralph Wilson being among them.
A more rational alternative that would fit the Bills just fine would be Arizona linebacker Calvin Pace. With the Cards' franchise tagging Karlos Dansby, Pace is set to hit the market. At 27-years old and coming off a 98 tackle, 6.5 sack performance, Pace would be exactly what the Bills need. A Pace/Crowell/Posluszny tandem would make offenses take notice. Other, less expensive options could be Boss Bailey (Lions), Ted Lehman (Lions) or Shante Orr (Texans).
The club would love seeing elite prospect prospect Keith Rivers fall to them with the 11th pick, but odds of him getting past Cincinnati and New Orleans before Buffalo are not good.
Cornerback: Don't anticipate Buffalo doing much at all this offseason with their cornerbacks. The team likes Terrence McGee and Jabrari Greer as their starters, and Kiwaukee Thomas as the nickel corner. Ashton Youboty, who hasn't played much and struggled a lot through two years, could still be in the mix. The problem with this team isn't the corners, it's the front seven and that should be dispatched before disturbing the backfield. If the Bills make any moves at corner, it'll probably come by way of a low-key free agent or late round draft pick.
Safety: The Bills also will probably stand firm at safety. Donte Whitner hasn't been the game-changing playmaker the team hoped when taking him eighth overall in 2006, but he certainly isn't going anywhere after only two seasons. The team likes his leadership abilities in the locker room, and his game still has plenty of room to grow. Ko Simpson should be back and healthy from the broken foot he suffered in the first week of the season. George Wilson played well enough in his place to earn the team's confidence as a backup. Bryan Scott was a mid-season pickup who also played well when pressed into duty. Don't expect any noteworthy movement at safety.
Defensive Summary: The secondary is by no means magnificent and won't win many games by themselves, but they're also not the Achilles' heel of the defense. If this unit is to be more competitive in 2008, it has to start with the front seven. Too many running backs get to patiently pick their holes running while quarterbacks could often pack lunches in the pocket waiting to find open receivers.
Former Gm Marv Levy overvalued Chris Kelsay and Larry Tripplett badly. Their contracts have far exceeded their performance. The team gave up two first day picks in 2006 to get John McCargo. They need to start utilizing him more. Schobel needs to play like he did in 2006; he wasn't good enough last year.
Of course, having more talent around them would help. If the Bills can pick up a good defensive tackle and an outside linebacker who matters before next season and combine with a healthy Posluszny, it could mean a radical defensive improvement.
But if Russ Brandon...or it John Guy? Jim Overdorf? Well, if whomever it is calling the free agent/drafting shots either strikes out again (Kelsay, Tripplett) or lies down a bunch of bunts (Ellison, Williams) disguised as starters; it's going to be a long season yet again. All the offensive talent in the world doesn't matter when you can't get your defense off the field and after eight playoff-less seasons, even the most ardent of fans are growing weary.
Send Message
Add Friend