The BCS fell into mayhem with the top two teams in the standings losing on the eve of the bowl bids being handed out. Everyone is crying out for a playoff and the format I laid out last week is almost too simple for the NCAA to implement it. Now that we know the champions of each conference I can seed the tournament of 11 and play it out.
One argument against it will certainly be that people would rather see at-large teams, but if you don't win your conference how can you complain about not getting a shot to win a national title? These five champions outside of the major conferences have a little spunk to them as well. Central Michigan was touched up pretty good by Kansas (52-7) Purdue (45-22) and Clemson (70-14) so they would be the easiest target. Florida Atlantic played five BCS teams this year, beating Big Ten doormat Minnesota and testing South Florida before losing 35-23. UCF went 1-2 against BCS opponents and BYU split two meetings against the Pac-10. Hawaii closed their season by beating Washington to give this group of teams a 4-10 record against BCS teams. That's not great, but it's not 0-14 either.
The first round would be played in the higher seeded team's stadium. The quarterfinals could be held in regionally friendly venues slanted towards the higher seed. The semifinals and finals would rotate among high profile, predetermined venues. Here is how I see the playoffs.
Opening Round #11 Central Michigan (MAC) @ #6 Virginia Tech (ACC)
#10 Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt) @ #7 Hawaii (WAC)
#9 UCF (Conference USA) @ #8 BYU (Mountain West)
Quarterfinals #1 Ohio State (Big Ten) vs. #8 BYU - St. Louis, MO
#2 LSU (SEC) vs. #7 Hawaii - Atlanta, GA
#3 USC (Pac-10) vs. #6 Virginia Tech - Pasadena, CA
#4 Oklahoma (Big XII) vs. #5 West Virginia (Big East) - San Antonio, TX
Semifinals #1 Ohio State vs. #4 Oklahoma - Glendale, AZ
#2 LSU vs. #3 USC - Jacksonville, FL
Championship #3 USC vs. #4 Oklahoma - New Orleans, LA
You can decide who might win that dream title game. This week's poll has quite a bit of movement. In some cases I had to evaluate various conferences and that led to even more shuffling.
Last week's ranking in ( )'s. NR = not ranked. W = watch list. (AP, USA, Harris, BCS)
#1 (6) USC (10-2): How good is their defense? Ask UCLA. The Bruins had 167 total yards while going 0/11 on third down with 4 sacks and 4 turnovers. They had the ball 15 times and only twice did they move it over 13 yards. The Trojan offense wasn't great, but a trio of backs had at least 12 carries and 67 yards as they simply ran over their rivals. Maybe a few people need to show some guts and rank them #1 because now at full health this is the best team in the country. Unfortunately it is looking like a trip to the Rose Bowl against an at-large team, probably Georgia.
#2 (8) Oklahoma (11-2): It is hard to fathom this team blowing a 24-7 lead to Colorado and letting Texas Tech roll up 34 on their defense. Right now they look like smooth and absolutely overwhelmed Missouri in the second half. One thing that kept them in control was never giving up field position which is easy to do when you have no turnovers or sacks. Missouri's best starting position was their own 32 and the average was 20.4 over 11 possessions. Oklahoma's average start came at their 37.3 including a crucial interception leading to a 7 yard touchdown "drive".
#3 (9) LSU (11-2): Losing Flynn could have been a killer, but Perrilloux's play prior to injuring his finger made that a non-issue. The unsung hero was Jacob Hester with 23 tough carries for 118 yards. Their title was made possible by Ainge's two ill advised throws including the game winning interception return. Truth be told, they should have wrapped this game up early. Instead they drove 63, 59 and 56 yards only to wind up with 6 points. Three move drives of 78, 76 and 50 yards produced only 7 more points. That's 382 yards for 13 points. One thing they did was possess the football with eight drives of at least 2:51. Now their fate is in the hands of the voters.
#4 (5) Georgia (10-2): Let the debate begin. Few teams have had a tougher schedule. The Bulldogs have gone 8-2 against bowl eligible teams. Vanderbilt would have been had Georgia not beaten them leaving Western Kentucky as the only "dog" on their entire schedule. Yes, it hurts to have lost the SEC East by getting spanked at Tennessee. Unfortunately we didn't see if in reality they were in fact the best team in the conference. They did roll up Florida, Auburn and Kentucky by 11+ points over a four week stretch after all.
#5 (7) Ohio State (11-1): BCS title game here they come, and it reveals one of the biggest flaws in the system. If you're going to lose, just be sure to lose earlier than other teams. Can you imagine if Kansas and Missouri had met weeks ago? The Jayhawks might be their opponent in the national championship. As it is, the Buckeyes played a slate filled with mediocre opposition in a clearly down year for the Big Ten. This time they couldn't fall back on beating Texas because their only BCS opponent outside the conference was Washington. Their best defense is having won convincingly over three of their four toughest opponents, Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn State.
#6 (2) Missouri (11-2): Their head coach pointed out how the difference was his team kicking field goals it seemed silly in a game that ended 38-17, but I tend to agree. The offense had field goal marches of 57, 75 and 65 yards while also driving 53 yards only to punt. Those 250 total yards produced just 9 points and when Oklahoma was scoring touchdowns on five out of seven drives at one point they just couldn't keep up. Still, down the stretch this team steamrolled the rest of the Big XII and is deserving of a spot in the BCS.
#7 (3) Hawaii (12-0): In their only meeting with a BCS team the result was a needed victory, but not the type of performance that leaves everyone wondering how they might fare in the national title game. They couldn't hold the ball in the first quarter with 3 fumbles leading to a 21-0 deficit, but drove 73+ yards for touchdowns five times to pull it out. Another key was their defense holding Washington to 1/9 on third down which kept the Huskies from longer drives.
#8 (4) Kansas (11-1): The final two weeks of the season proved they are the third best team in the Big XII. They had their chance, but the loss to Missouri has the Jayhawks trying to prove they are more BCS worthy than a team who just beat them on a neutral field. I would freeze out the Jayhawks because they played no one outside of conference play and didn't face Oklahoma, Texas or Texas Tech who were the best teams in the Big XII South. The top two teams they beat in conference play both finished 4-4 (Colorado, Texas A&M). Kansas won those games 19-14 and 19-11. Both were on the road, but the final scores were unimpressive.
#9 (10) Arizona State (10-2): The Sun Devils engaged in a typical scrap with their rivals from Arizona who were playing as if it was their bowl game because they needed a win to become eligible. They survived a mistake prone game in which they gave the Wildcats the ball in their territory five times. Of those possessions the defense gave up only 14 points. Meanwhile Arizona State's average starting position was their 27.6 yard line and only three of their drives went for more than 36 yards. As disrespected as this team has been they finished 4-2 against bowl eligible teams and knocked two others (Washington State, Arizona) out of eligibility.
#10 (1) West Virginia (10-2): It will be easy for people to blame this loss on Pat White's injury, but all they had to do was score another touchdown before he was hurt and the BCS title game would be on their schedule. Or how about flexing their muscles by running the ball? Steve Slaton finished with 9 rushes for 9 yards. The team had 186 total yards and 3.3 yards per offensive play. Pittsburgh can play some defense, but aren't these the guys who gave up 44 (Virginia) 48 (Navy) and 48 (South Florida) at various times this year? The Navy game stands out for me. If the Midshipmen can average 4.7 yards rushing on this team with no threat of a pass then why couldn't the Mountaineers?
#11 (12) Virginia Tech (11-2): This time there would be no comeback from Matt Ryan. Xavier Adibi's interception return for a touchdown sealed the ACC title for the Hokies who now probably wish they hadn't scheduled LSU. If not for that loss they might be in the national championship. In this one their defense made just enough plays, mostly when it mattered most. Boston College had drives of 54, 58, 59, 40 and 58 yards result in a grand total of 3 points.
#12 (13) Florida (9-3): Being the best team not involved in the BCS is probably of little consolation to the Gators who also might see their quarterback Tim Tebow win the Heisman. However, against the top four in the SEC they went 1-3. Their biggest win, a 59-20 spanking of Tennessee, came way back on September 15. The lone notable win since was a 45-37 victory over Kentucky who finished 7-5.
#13 (11) Boston College (10-3): They probably lost this game in the opening three offensive possessions when marches of 54, 58 and 59 points produced a total of 3 points. Instead of possibly leading by maybe 17-24 points it was 10-0 when Virginia Tech's offense woke up. Neither team moved the ball much in the second half, but Ryan's two interceptions cost the Eagles any shot at coming back.
#14 (16) Tennessee (9-4): The SEC title was literally thrown away. Ainge should have been thinking about holding the lead, but instead delivered a strike to Zenon for a game changing touchdown interception. This game was no masterpiece on either side mind you. However, up to that point Tennessee had made no mistakes. The Tigers finished with no sacks and the Volunteers were not flagged for a penalty all game. Still, Ainge finished just 50% passing the ball and Foster had a 2.7 yard rushing average. Their offense never hurt an LSU defense that has been touched up in recent weeks.
#15 (15) Clemson (9-3): Their season was defined by beating the bad teams and losing in their biggest games. Even getting eventual division champions Virginia Tech and Boston College at home didn't help. They lost their toughest road test as well, a 13-3 mess at Georgia Tech who finished 7-5 with their coach on the unemployment line. Perhaps it is an accomplishment just to have avoided upsets while recording 7 wins by 13+ points.
#16 (17) Cincinnati (9-3): Last year the Big East excitement surrounded upstarts Louisville and Rutgers. This year it was South Florida and Connecticut garnering attention. Mix in a little West Virginia and it is no wonder people overlook the Bearcats even during their 6-0 start. Close losses to Louisville and Pittsburgh proved just how long a college football season can be. If they played those games again I would take them in both by 10+. Unfortunately it cost them a better finish and sent them to the PapaJohn's.com Bowl against an overmatched Southern Miss (7-5) from Conference USA. The Golden Eagles lost both visits to BCS schools at Tennessee (39-19) and Boise State (38-16) back in September.
#17 (18) Virginia (9-3): They finished 4-1 against bowl eligible teams and played five other teams who finished 5-7 so their schedule wasn't terrible. It was the way they had to struggle with six wins by no more than 5 points that hurt their reputation. They also didn't have to play the three of the four best teams from the ACC Atlantic, recording close wins against Maryland (18-17) and Wake Forest (17-16) while losing to N.C. State (29-24). I would have liked to see them stack up against Boston College or Clemson.
#18 (27) Oregon State (8-4): Now that all of the dust has settled this is the third best team in a very good conference. They are also hot having won six of their last seven. Granted Oregon was without Dixon, but their defense had stood tall in his absence. This week the Beavers came in without their leading rusher and drove 67, 68, 75 and 51 yards on them among their opening five possessions. As rivalry games go, they turned it over and missed a punt to end two of those marches to lead just 14-7. Those mistakes led to Oregon being in the game and this one going to overtime, but the Ducks were mostly contained when it mattered. On their final 7 possessions including overtime Oregon drove the ball over 13 yards just once, totaling 115 yards on 37 plays.
#19 (14) Oregon (8-4): The offense played their best game since Dixon's injury, but the defense fell down against rival Oregon State. Jonathan Stewart bolstered his NFL draft stock by rushing 39 times for 165 yards with the defense knowing just what to expect from an offense without a decent quarterback. Ultimately they were let down by poor coaching as players rushed onto the field for a failed field goal in the waning moments instead of simply killing the clock with a spike. Clearly this is a tale of two teams because of Dixon's injury, but how do you throw out wins over Michigan, USC and Arizona State?
#20 (19) BYU (10-2): In a makeup game against San Diego State they completed an unbeaten season in the Mountain West with a convincing victory. Their offense went down the field at will with seven touchdown drives of 54+ yards out of nine possessions before simply running out the clock the final time they had the ball. The defense was a little shaky at times, especially during three long touchdown drives, and the Aztecs were 13/20 on third down. Next up is a trip to the Las Vegas Bowl against a Pac-10 opponent.
#21 (20) Illinois (9-3): Even if the Big Ten didn't have their finest showing, this team had to deal with all of the best teams and fared pretty well in going 6-2. The teams left off their conference schedule were Michigan State and Purdue who both finished 3-5 in conference and 7-5 overall. This is a team ready to stand up for the Big Ten in the bowl season.
#22 (21) Connecticut (9-3): The dream season was blown up a bit with routs on the road in Cincinnati and West Virginia, but they made huge strides this season and finished second in a rugged Big East conference. They also managed to win six times by 19+ points and for a school known for basketball it was possibly a break through season.
#23 (22) South Florida (9-3): They came out of nowhere and seemingly went back there by losing 3 in a row, but rallied with 3 routs to close the regular season. One of the overlooked wins was a 64-12 thrashing of Central Florida who won Conference USA. However, they went 1-3 against the top of the Big East with the lone win being the big one over West Virginia way back on September 28. They have accepted a trip to the Sun Bowl against a Pac-10 opponent.
#24 (24) Wisconsin (9-3): This team is still a mystery to me, but they certainly didn't stand up well against the best of the Big Ten. They were 2-3 against teams who finished 4-4 or better in conference play, having avoided Purdue (3-5, 7-5 overall) due to a set rotating schedule. They also won four games by a touchdown or less. Their signature performance was a win over Michigan who looked to me like a team resting up for Ohio State. Like the last three years they will have a shot at the SEC in the Outback Bowl, possibly Tennessee or Auburn.
#25 (23) Boise State (10-2): After their loss to Hawaii the biggest wins are over Fresno State and Southern Miss. Neither of those teams really strike fear into anyone, but the Broncos did steamroll a lot of teams this season. Six of their wins were by 22+ points and nine came by 10+.
#26 (25) Auburn (8-4): They managed a 3-3 record against teams who finished 4-4 or better in SEC play, but it will be hard for them to wonder what might have been with three tight losses on the season. The first came 26-23 in overtime to South Florida of the Big East, then a hangover the next week when they lost 19-14 to Mississippi State. Finally they lost 30-24 to LSU during their stretch of cardiac finishes. No one even remembers this team beat Florida and Arkansas.
#27 (26) Texas (9-3): The defense has certainly betrayed them of late allowing 35, 43 and 38 points despite the fact that they won two of those games. As I pointed out last week it was fortunate that the schedule rotation kept Missouri and Kansas away from them because Daniel and Reesing would have lit them up. Their biggest win was a 59-43 wipeout of Texas Tech who finished 8-4. Other than that the only team they beat who finished with a winning record was Central Florida who won Conference USA, a 35-32 battle in the Sunshine State.
#28 (28) Arkansas (8-4): When Auburn's late field goal beat the Razorbacks 9-7 and left their record at 3-3 many people forgot about this team. Since then they are 5-1, but for the year they went only 2-3 against SEC teams who finished 4-4 or better in conference play and didn't have to deal with Georgia or Florida. The best two from the SEC East they faced, Tennessee and Kentucky, both beat them convincingly.
#29 (29) Texas Tech (8-4): Their season was truly saved by upsetting Oklahoma. They were 2-4 against teams who finished 4-4 or better in the Big XII and lost convincingly to Texas and Missouri. However, their offense is explosive to the point where you feel like they can score against almost anyone. Ten times they put up 34+ points this season.
#30 (NR) Central Florida (10-3): There is something to be said for winning a conference title and I'm recognizing that here. The Knights won at N.C. State who finished 5-7 and lost a tough 35-32 game to Texas. They have turned into an offensive machine with six games scoring 44+ points and ten games of 32+ and closed the regular season winning their last 7.
Dropped Out: #30 Troy
Prospect