Division Winner - Oakland Athletics

Starting Rotation - Barry Zito is the ace of the rotation in what is most likely his final year with the Athletics.  Zito has become what most scouts thought he would be:  a very good, middle of the rotation pitcher.  Expect 15 wins and a steady ERA.  Rich Harden is a great pitcher, but needs to stay healthy.  Esteban Loaiza is a solid middle of the rotation pitcher and should provide some insurance in case the injury bug hits the younger guys again.  Danny Haren is a stud pitcher and should shoot to the top of the rotation.  He'll be the ace once Zito is gone.  Joe Blanton should turn out to be a solid middle of the rotation guy.  The A's have the best rotation in the division.

However, I'm wondering how long Oakland's latest window of opportunity will be.  Harden enters arbitration after this season, Blanton after 2007.  Haren's new contract extension is a steal, so the A's will at least have their ace in waiting for the next four years. 

Bullpen - Huston Street was a successful rookie season and the A's have gotten a great closer for the next six years are a fraction of the price that was doled out this off-season (still, watch out in three years).   Kirk Saarloos, the fifth stater who pitches like a fifth starter, will be a long reliever.  Justin Duchscherer will set up for Street and Jay Witasick will also be a long reliever.  Kiko Calero will be an effective right handed specialist and Joe Kennedy is back as a reliever.  All in all, a strong bullpen, but again, injuries to the starting rotation will stretch the pen as thin as it was down the stretch last year.

Catcher -  Jason Kendall is a contact hitter, but he seemed to have lost something when he moved to the AL.  While he still brought in over 50 runs, he was also stole upon quite often.  He's the starter, but he's on shaky ground.    

Designated Hitter - I want to believe in Frank Thomas.  I really do.  However, he's had his past two seasons cut short by injury.  He can still hit, as was seen in his brief stint with the White Sox last season.  But I don't think he can manage a full season.  He's best limited to lefty pitching, as he can crush them with ease.  Jay Payton and Bobby Kielty will possibly getting some looks here too.  If Thomas can stay healthy, the A's will have the best DH in the division.  If he doesn't, then the worst the A's can do is meet the average, of which there is no shame in that.

The Infield - Dan Johnson had a decent rookie debut.  With Thomas back, he'll be the starting first baseman again.  He's got a good glove and power to his bat.  He should do quite well.  Mark Ellis is a nice second baseman.  He has power, makes contact, but is a little slow on the bases.  Still, he's quite productive, and no one is perfect.   Bobby Crosby is a good shortstop, but he was falling apart at the end of the season thanks to injuries.  Crosby has power potential and gets on base, but the A's really need for him to stay in the lineup in order for them to win.  Eric Chavez is a masher, but he needs to get some protection in that lineup.  Because so much pressure rested on his shoulders last season, he ranked sixth in the American League (Third in the AL West) in strikeouts.  All in all, I like the A's infield, but they're going to need Crosby to bounce back and quick.

The Outfield - This figures to be a speedy outfield.  Nick Swisher is now in left field.  Don't let the batting average fool you.  This guy brings runs in.  Still, lefties are his kryptonite.  Mark Kotsay is a good centerfielder.  He gets base and doesn't strikeout often.  Milton Bradley is now the right fielder.  And here's where the potential problem lies.  Bradley has been a cancer on two different teams.  He's got power to his bad and can bring guys in, but he's also had a hard time staying healthy.  I'm hoping he stays on his best behavior, because if not, he's likely to run afoul of another temperamental slugger, Frank Thomas.  There could also be a potential problem with Jay Payton, as I'll explain next...

The Bench - Jay Payton will probably be on the bench, which creates another problem for the Athletics.  Payton bitched his way out of Boston because he was the fourth outfielder.  He's now the fourth outfielder.  Can the A's really trust him to keep his mouth shut?  Joining him riding the pine are Bobby Kielty, Marco Scutaro, and Antonio Perez.  A good bench, though I'm sure the A's are hoping and praying Payton doesn't become a problem.

In Short - The A's should overtake the Angels and the Rangers for the division crown.   However, this is going to be a street fight the entire season.  It will truly be a case of "last man standing."  The fate of the Athletics post-season hopes rest on Crosby and Thomas' shoulders.  If both of them succumb to injuries, Oakland's in trouble.

Wild Card Contender - Texas Rangers

Starting Rotation - Texas has something that they haven't had in years this year: a decent starting rotation.  Losing Kenny Rogers and Chris Young hurts, as they were their best starters last year.  But the Rangers did gain a proven number one in Kevin Millwood, who will do well in Arlington by keeping runs off the board.  I also like the acquisition of Vicente Padilla, who has pitched in a hitters park.  His ERA won't be pretty, but he'll hold off opposing hitters long enough for Texas to build a good lead for the bullpen to take over.  Kameron Loe and Juan Dominguez are both good young talents and proved themselves last year.  The only question mark is Adam Eaton, who has had a history of injury trouble and whose sinkerball style is usually torn apart in The Ballpark at Arlington.  How he does will depend on him.  Eaton will either soar or be dealt in midseason.

Bullpen - The Texas bullpen absolutely killed the Rangers last season.   Francisco Cordero, a dependable closer, returns.  With a stronger setup crew, Cordero should rebound back into All-Star form.  Cordero will have Akinori Otsuka and Joaquin Benoit setting up for him, both of which are excellent in that role.  John Washin had success as a long reliever/spot starter, so he'll remain at the position and will probably remain dependable.  C.J. Wilson was a disaster as a starter, but was great as a long reliever, so it's likely he'll remain here.  It's also likely that Jon Leicester and R.A. Dickey will also become long relievers.  Dickey did well in that role (but was quite hittable) while Leicester has an air of promise.  Both will get looks in the bullpen and perhaps in the rotation as well in case one of the starters goes down.  Rounding out the pen will be Brian Shouse, who's a dominating lefty specialist, and Erasmo Ramirez, wo will function as the righty specialist.  All in all, it's a huge improvement over last years rotation, which could possibly be made even better if Frank Francisco comes back.  I think the Rangers finally have a bullpen that can keep a lead.

Catcher - Rod Barajas remains one of the most productive catchers in the American League.  He's back for one more year, and it's hoped that he'll sign long term with the team.  However, if Barajas does price himself out of range for Texas, top prospect Gerald Laird is more than capable of taking his place.  For now, he'll be regulated to backup duty. 

Designated Hitter - Texas has a few options at the DH.  Phil Nevin was traded to Texas in hopes of reviving his stats, but he hit below the Mendoza line once he arrived in Texas, so I'm not sure.  He has been working hard to improve himself, but I'm still skeptical   If he does rebound, Texas will have a dependable DH.  They also had David Dellucci, who was surprisingly good as the DH until injuries forced him back on the field.   Matthews could also get some looks here too.  Not bad, but having to bank on Nevi makes me nervous.

The Infield - Texas still has a great infield, even with the loss of Alfonso Soriano.  Mark Teixiera is a power threat and Michael Young continues to tear it up at shortstop.  Hank Blalock is still a great third baseman, but he fell off after the All-Star break.  Plus, he loses a lot of his offensive power once he's out of Arlington.  He needs to work on becoming more consistent in order for him to solidify his All-Star status.  Prospect Ian Kinsler is set to take over second base.  Kinsler has power potential and is rapidly learning how to play second (he was brought aboard as a shortstop).  He's young and still developing, so Texas can expect the occasional Soriano-esque mistake.  But it's likely he'll improve and if he can adjust to big-league pitching, Texas will not lose a step.  This is one of the best infields in baseball, and probably the best in the division.

The Outfield - There are quite a few nice outfielders for the Rangers.  Brad Wilkerson is going to play right field.  He's a great leadoff hitter, but suffered in the spacious confines of RFK Stadium.  He'll rebound nicely with Texas and he'll give them a dependable right fielder and a solid lead-off man.  Kevin Mench remains a solid performer and will continue protecting Teixiera in the lineup.  Center is the only question.  Gary Matthews Jr. did a fantastic job in center after Laynce Nix went down early, so it's likely Matthews is the starting centerfielder.  Matthews has a great combination of speed and power.  It's a vast improvement over the patchwork outfield that Texas had to use throughout much of last year.

The Bench - Mark DeRosa was valuable for the Rangers last year.  He's flexible, has some pop to his bat, and would be a great starter elsewhere. He's going to compete with Kinsler for the starting second baseman's job, which he would perform admirably.  As for the rest of the bench, Laynce Nix will be here along with D'Angelo Jimenez (who gives the Rangers another option at second base), and possibly Jason Botts, a hard-hitting prospect.  It's a nice bench and should help in case the starters go down.

In Short - With the improvements made in the rotation and the bullpen, combined with their offensive strength, Texas should be ready to contend for the wild card.  If Oakland or Anaheim stumbles down the stretch, it wouldn't be impossible for Texas to win the division.

Wild Card Contender - Anaheim Angels

Starting Rotation - Bartolo Colon put together his best season last year.  However, health issues robbed him of his ability in the post-season and without their ace, the Angels were no match for the White Sox almost bulletproof pitching staff.  Colon will still be effective, but expect 18 wins and an ERA around 3.79.  John Lackey is a great young pitcher.  He throws strikeouts often and for the most part keeps hitters at bay.  Ervin Santana had a great rookie year and should continue to improve.  He'll be the ace of the staff once Colon is done.  Jeff Weaver signed on and he honestly should be the fourth starter.  Weaver is the kiss of death for this rotation.  Weaver was pounded in the American League and was not the ace that the Dodgers needed him to be either.  Batters had high averages   Kelvim Escobar is also a nice talent, but he hasn't pitched a full season yet, so it remains to be seen on how he'll handle 35 starts.  Still, he's got it cushy here as the fifth starter.  I think the Angels are going to miss Paul Byrd and his steady, innings eating style. 

Bullpen - Francisco Rodriguez is a lights out closer.  The Angels are set here.  Scot Shields is a great setup man and emergency closer when needed.  Brendan Donnelly is a great middle man and J.C. Romero was a steal.  After that, you've got three intangibles.  Esteban Yan has had some decent starts.  Greg Jones needs more experience.  And Kevin Gregg still needs a lot of work.  I don't know, the Angels' bullpen looks more vulnerable this year.  

Catcher - Jose Molina takes over for brother Bengie behind the bag.  Jose is nowhere near the player that Bengie was, but Jose is able to hit lefties and has good defensive skills.  Hot prospect Jeff Mathis is more successful against right handers and will be used exclusively against them.  Not a bad idea, but it may throw off any of the pitchers that have a set preference as far as their catcher.  Plus, Bengie had a gift with handling pitchers.  The Angels are going to miss that.  

Designated Hitter - The Designated Hitter role is going to be a revolving door.  Robb Quinlan could get some at bats against lefties, but Juan Rivera looks like it's his job to lose.  This would be a great spot for Manny Ramirez, but the Angels do not want to trade any of their farm system depth to acquire him.  It's a pity because the Angels could have sacrificed some of their depth of infield prospects to obtain him. 

Still, Artie Moreno may force a trade if he becomes disappointed with the way the season pans out.

The Infield - Casey Kotchman will now man first.  Kotchman is pretty good, but untested.  He has some power which can make him a threat.  Adam Kennedy has a deceptively high average.  Don't be fooled.  He doesn't bring in guys often, which is what you need.  The same can be said of Chone Figgins, who is mostly a threat on the bases, as his 62 steals last year shows.  Orlando Cabrera has experienced a drop in his numbers, which isn't surprising as his impressive campaign with Boston was largely inflated by the friendly confines of Fenway.  He's mildly productive, which isn't why he was brought in for.  In fact, the entire infield seems to do a good job of getting on base, but not so good of a job getting home.

The Outfield - Vladimir Guerrero remains the most feared hitter in the division, but with the Angels losing Bengie Molina's power potential and the lack of any hard hitters in the lineup, Guerrero's going to see his walks total skyrocket.  Darin Erstad moves back to centerfield.  What is it with people and this guy?  Is it because he used to play football?  Anyhow, I wonder if Erstad can really man center again.  He's getting older now (32) and with Erstad's injury history, I wonder if it was wise to put him back there when instead they could have moved him to left field and have Garrett Anderson, a find centerfielder and a great producer, man center.  [Shrugs]  Who knows.  Anderson will instead be in left field, but the Angels had better hope for the best with moving Erstad back.

The Bench - Dallas McPherson, back after surgery, will likely start the season on the bench unless he is able to outslug Chone Figgins.  Has anyone's star fallen faster the Dallas McPherson?  One year ago, he was fawned over as the most talented prospect to pass through the minors since Alex Rodriguez (I'm serious, people actually said this).  It's still too soon to write him off, but he's buried right now on the depth chart.  Maicer Izturis, who can play any infield position except first base, is also on the bench.  Edgardo Alfonzo, another great bench guy, rounds out the bench.

In Short - The lack of an established DH, the loss of more protection for Vlad Guerrero, and the Angels' unwillingness to deal from their farm system depth is going to cost them the division and the playoffs all together.  Not only will the Angels be forced to fend off an improved Yankees and Blue Jays team, but they'll also have to fight off Texas and Oakland in their division.  And did we forget to mention the White Sox and Indians are still around.

To be honest, I'll admit that I admire the Angels' desire to build from within, the way it should be done.  I'm just not sure if Moreno will allow it.  He wants to make headlines and establish the Angels in the Los Angeles market.  He could wind up mortgaging the future for present success.

Rebuilding - Seattle Mariners

Starting Rotation - Jamie Moyer is a decent enough starting pitcher, but outside of Safeco's friendly confines, he gets destroyed.  Joel Pineiro is getting progressively worse each year.  The Mariners overpaid for Jarrod Washburn, pure and simple.  He wasn't the best pitcher available in free agency, but the Mariners liked the fact that he ate up innings and also liked the fact of taking one of the Angels starters.  Gil Meche is rapidly becoming a lost cause.  Felix Hernandez is the bright spot of this bunch.  Come September, he'll be at the top of the rotation.  This kid is dominant and reminds me a lot of a young Pedro Martinez.  Still, the rotation is going to be abused hard by the heavier hitting teams in the AL.  And this is reason number one why the Mariners aren't contending.

Bullpen - Marcos Carvajal, Matt Thornton and George Sherrill all have a lot more growing to do as pitchers.  It is going to be the pitching that's going to keep Seattle in the gutter for a while.  J.J. Putz is a great right handed specialist, while Julio Mateo would be better off as a lefty specialist, but he's going to have to be a middle man, which he'll do fine.  Rafael Soriano is like a stripper, constantly teasing you, but never showing you everything.  (Save the All Nude Club References please!)  Eddie Guardado is a great closer.  Still, there's not a lot of dependable arms here.  The Mariners are going to have to pray that the kids can improve in a hurry.  And that was reason number two.

Catcher - Latest Asian sensation, Kenji Johjima, looks to be the real thing.  If his talent in Japan translates over here, the Mariners will have gotten a good defensive catcher that can hit for power.  I like him and he should translate his game nicely.  Top prospect Rene Rivera is ready to roll in the majors and will probably catch when Johjima is the DH.

Designated Hitter - Carl Everett, who has some power and did bring in the runners is the DH.  He's not bad, but he just doesn't have that mystique that should go with the DH.   You'll also see Johjima takes some looks at the DH position to save his knees. 

The Infield -  Richie Sexton returns to first base and will continue to be a terror.  Jose Lopez is still growing as a second baseman but he's shown that he can handle the job well.  Yuniesky Betancourt has got some of the softest hands in baseball.  He's going to be a great defensive player in the future.  Adrian Beltre is going to be key here.  He's been a average player through much of his career, but the Mariners brought him in to be the masher that he was in 2004 with the Dodgers.  If he continues to perform at the level's he's at, the Mariners will drop him as quick as they can.  Still with Sexton in the infield and Betancourt's great glove, the infield's in nice shape. 

The Outfield - Ichiro returns to the outfield, but you have got to wonder how happy he is playing for this team.  Ichiro's statements over the summer caused a sensation, creating rumors that he was going to be traded.  Seattle would be stupid to do that, but if the Mariners start to tank again, Ichiro may quietly begin to push for himself to be dealt to a contender.  With that said, Ichiro will continue to do what he does best, and that's get on base.  Jeremy Reed is a great young talent and should grow into a very good offensive player, similar to Coco Crisp.  Raul Ibanez is also good offensively and should provide enough help with the glove to give the Mariner's the consistent production that they used to enjoy with their outfield.

The Bench - Carl Everett, when he's not hitting, can also play a number of positions in the field.  Joining him are Mike Morse, Willie Bloomquist, and Secretariat, I mean, Matt Lawton.  Everett and Morse will come in hand, not sure about Lawton.

In Short - Johjima will add some punch and could possibly be something special.  However, a young and inexperienced rotation will spell doom for the Mariners.