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    Watching Greatness: Hockey Hall Of Famers by NHL Season

    Friday, July 3, 2009, 2:30 PM [Hockey Hall Of Fame]

    Last September I identified 40 active players currently in the NHL whom I projected would someday become Hockey Hall of Fame (HHOF) inductees, based on the rationale was that there were theoretically between 37.5 and 56.25 future HHOFers playing the NHL right now. My surmise was a relative simple one, using past HHOF induction rates (3.75 players per year on average), average career lengths for HHOFers (13.77 seasons) and creating a margin of error. But while a workable and logical hypothesis, how does such guesswork measure up to reality?

    Nothing beats solid research, so to answer that question I prepared the following chart detailing the number of HHOFers active each NHL season. The chart also contains the total roster positions in the league (based on the number of NHL teams and the maximum roster size each season) and the percentage of HHOFers compared to non-HHOFers in the league at that time. The findings were very interesting.

    As you'll see below, the peak season for Hockey Hall of Fame talent in the NHL was 1927-28 when there were 45 future HHOFers active in the league, covering 34.62 percent of the available roster positions. In short, that season every third player you looked at on the ice was someday off to the HHOF (which wouldn't exist for another 17 years, but that's a different story). 1926-27 and 1936-37 are the next best seasons with 44 HHOFers each, followed by 1928-29 with 42 HHOFers. (With four of the five peak seasons occurring between 1927-1930, that suggest a gold mine of talent never seen before or since, or an over-induction rate for players from those seasons. That's a topic to examine another day.)

    The greatest concentration of HHOFers occurred in 1918-19 when HHOFers covered 46.15 percent of all the roster positions. If you thought 1927-28 was special, just think: in 1918-19 every other guy you looked at on the ice was a future HHOF inductee. (I guess this provides all those people who argue about the poor quality of the game today just one more argument...)

    Note that with the exception of the World War II years, the number of active HHOFers remains fairly constant in the mid-30s per season. These numbers dip again in the 1970s thanks to the World Hockey Association bleeding off talent. Adding the WHA defectors back into the mix pulls the numbers for the 1973-1979 seasons back into the high-30s range.

    With the 2009 HHOF election of Steve Yzerman, the 1982-83 season is boosted to 41 HHOFers, one of the most prolific groups of talent in NHL history. A very conservative projection of future HHOF inductees suggests that the 1980s and early 1990s should have an annual count in the high 30s - low 40s for future HHOFers, and the 1992-94 period should create another peak similar to 1927-30 (although with a much lower percentage to the overall roster spots available).

    So, with the NHL now at 30 teams and 600 roster spots, and given the historical averages of HHOFers present in the league, that guesswork from a year ago seems like a pretty reasonable, and perhaps even conservative, estimation for HHOFers present in the NHL today.

    NHL NHL NHL NHL Rosters Active
    Season Teams Roster Size Goalies Positions HHOFers
    1918 4 12 1 52 19 36.54%
    1919 3 12 1 39 18 46.15%
    1920 4 12 1 52 16 30.77%
    1921 4 12 1 52 15 28.85%
    1922 4 12 1 52 16 30.77%
    1923 4 12 1 52 18 34.62%
    1924 4 12 1 52 18 34.62%
    1925 6 12 1 78 19 24.36%
    1926 7 12 1 91 24 26.37%
    1927 10 12 1 130 44 33.85%
    1928 10 12 1 130 45 34.62%
    1929 10 12 1 130 42 32.31%
    1930 10 15 1 160 41 25.63%
    1931 10 15 1 160 39 24.38%
    1932 8 15 1 128 37 28.91%
    1933 9 15 1 144 37 25.69%
    1934 9 15 1 144 35 24.31%
    1935 9 15 1 144 36 25.00%
    1936 8 15 1 128 38 29.69%
    1937 8 15 1 128 44 34.38%
    1938 7 15 1 112 34 30.36%
    1939 7 15 1 112 34 30.36%
    1940 7 15 1 112 32 28.57%
    1941 7 15 1 112 31 27.68%
    1942 7 15 1 112 33 29.46%
    1943 6 14 1 90 28 31.11%
    1944 6 14 1 90 20 22.22%
    1945 6 14 1 90 20 22.22%
    1946 6 14 1 90 37 41.11%
    1947 6 14 1 90 35 38.89%
    1948 6 14 1 90 33 36.67%
    1949 6 14 1 90 31 34.44%
    1950 6 17 1 108 33 30.56%
    1951 6 17 1 108 33 30.56%
    1952 6 15 1 96 36 37.50%
    1953 6 16 1 102 37 36.27%
    1954 6 16 1 102 36 35.29%
    1955 6 16 1 102 34 33.33%
    1956 6 16 1 102 33 32.35%
    1957 6 16 1 102 34 33.33%
    1958 6 16 1 102 33 32.35%
    1959 6 16 1 102 35 34.31%
    1960 6 16 1 102 35 34.31%
    1961 6 16 1 102 35 34.31%
    1962 6 16 1 102 35 34.31%
    1963 6 16 1 102 34 33.33%
    1964 6 16 1 102 35 34.31%
    1965 6 16 1 102 35 34.31%
    1966 6 16 2 108 34 31.48%
    1967 6 16 2 108 37 34.26%
    1968 12 16 2 216 37 17.13%
    1969 12 16 2 216 39 18.06%
    1970 12 16 2 216 37 17.13%
    1971 14 16 2 252 37 14.68%
    1972 14 17 2 266 35 13.16%
    1973 16 17 2 304 33 10.86%
    1974 16 17 2 304 36 11.84%
    1975 18 17 2 342 32 9.36%
    1976 18 17 2 342 31 9.06%
    1977 18 17 2 342 32 9.36%
    1978 17 17 2 323 32 9.91%
    1979 21 17 2 399 31 7.77%
    1980 21 17 2 399 34 8.52%
    1981 21 17 2 399 36 9.02%
    1982 21 17 2 399 39 9.77%
    1983 21 18 2 420 39 9.29%
    1984 21 18 2 420 41 9.76%
    1985 21 18 2 420 39 9.29%
    1986 21 18 2 420 35 8.33%
    1987 21 18 2 420 37 8.81%
    1988 21 18 2 420 36 8.57%
    1989 21 18 2 420 35 8.33%
    1990 21 18 2 420 33 7.86%
    1991 21 18 2 420 31 7.38%
    1992 22 18 2 440 30 6.82%
    1993 24 18 2 480 29 6.04%
    1994 26 18 2 520 28 5.38%
    1995 26 18 2 520 25 4.81%
    1996 26 18 2 520 25 4.81%
    1997 26 18 2 520 23 4.42%
    1998 26 18 2 520 18 3.46%
    1999 27 18 2 540 15 2.78%
    2000 28 18 2 560 14 2.50%
    2001 30 18 2 600 14 2.33%
    2002 30 18 2 600 11 1.83%
    2003 30 18 2 600 11 1.83%
    2004 30 18 2 600 10 1.67%
    2005 30 18 2 600 0 0.00%
    2006 30 18 2 600 5 0.83%
    2007 30 18 2 600 0 0.00%
    2008 30 18 2 600 0 0.00%
    2009 30 18 2 600 0 0.00%
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    HHOF Class of 2009 and FoxSports.com Community Upgrade

    Wednesday, June 24, 2009, 11:14 AM [Steve Yzerman]

    Congratulations to the Hockey Hall of Fame (HHOF) Class of 2009!

    While there were no surprises on the selections among players - Steve Yzerman, Brett Hull, Brian Leetch and Luc Robitaille were the early and constant favourites - it was a pleasant surprise to see the election of New Jersey Devils General Manager Lou Lamoriello as a builder. An excellent selection and a well deserved honour.

    FoxSports.com is undergoing an online community upgrade between June 25 and July 1, and during that time any postings made to this blog (including comments) will be lost in the ether. I've prepared more thoughts to share - covering the HHOF Class of 2009, the NHL Entry Draft, an updated Top 40 Potential HHOFers among active players, and other HHOF-related research - but I'm going to hold off posting those items until the FoxSports.com upgrade is complete because I value your feedback and don't want it to vanish.

    Thanks very much for reading and we'll see you in a week!

     

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    Reliable Indicators

    Thursday, June 18, 2009, 2:57 PM [General]

    In developing my system for identifying and rating NHL careers worthy of Hockey Hall of Fame (HHOF) recognition, I've been looking for standards and mileposts that we can use as reliable indicators. With the NHL awards presented tonight, let's consider the value that winning two of the top awards - the Hart Trophy and the Art Ross Trophy - may have on a player's chances for induction to the HHOF.


    The Hart Trophy was first given out in the 1923-24 season. 51 different players have won the award in the 85 seasons it has been presented. 10 recipients are still active in hockey while 41 Hart-winners are now retired. Of this retired group, 38 past-winners are eligible for the HHOF and 36 have actually made the grade, a success rate of 94.7 percent.


    The two Hart winners who've failed to gain entry to the HHOF thus far are defenseman Tom Anderson (first eligible for the HHOF in 1950) and goaltender Al Rollins (first eligible for the HHOF in 1965). Anderson entered the army immediately after his Hart win in 1941-42 and never furthered his NHL career. Rollins won his Hart not so much for greatness as endurance, having suffered a league-leading 47 losses with the Chicago Black Hawks in 1953-54. I'll save a more detailed discussion of these two players for another time.


    When you look at the remaining 13 active or recently-retired players who've been awarded the Hart, all seem likely HHOF inductees with the exception of Jose Theodore, whose Hart season seems more and more like an aberration. (Theodore also merits a detailed discussion of his own.) Among the recently-retired, Brett Hull will undoubtedly be voted into the HHOF next week, while Eric Lindros should make the grade when he becomes eligible in 2010, as should two-time winner Dominik Hasek when he becomes eligible in 2011 (or 2013 if plays in the Czech Republic next season). Hart winners among active players include Theodore, Sidney Crosby, Sergei Fedorov, Peter Forsberg, Jaromir Jagr, Alexander Ovechkin (winning his second Hart tonight), Chris Pronger, Joe Sakic, Martin St. Louis and Joe Thornton.


    The Art Ross Trophy seems to be an even better indicator of eventual HHOF entry. First awarded in 1947-48, 24 players have won the award in the 61 years it has been presented. 8 recipients are still active, while the 16 retired winners have all been inducted into the HHOF, a 100 percent success rate.


    If you take into consideration the league points leaders from the pre-Art Ross Trophy period going all the way back to 1917-18 and grant them the award retroactively, you'll find there have been 45 winners, 37 of whom are eligible for the HHOF and 36 of whom have been inducted (a 97.3 percent success rate).


    The only outlier is left wing Herb Cain (first eligible for the HHOF in 1953), who won the 1943-44 scoring race in a wartime talent-depleted league. Like Anderson and Rollins above, we'll examine Cain's career in depth another time.


    Looking at the 8 active players who've won the Art Ross, all seem likely HHOF inductees. As discussed previously, 6 of these players - Sidney Crosby, Peter Forsberg, Jaromir Jagr, Alexander Ovechkin, Martin St. Louis and Joe Thornton - have also won the Hart Trophy, helping improve their eventual HHOF selection odds. The other two active Art Ross winners have also made Hart attacks:  Jarome Iginla narrowly lost the Hart to Jose Theodore in 2001-02, while Evgeni Malkin was a Hart finalist for 2008-09.


    There are 240 players currently enshrined in the HHOF. 192 of them have played in the NHL. Given that just a quarter of those NHL players inducted have led the league in scoring and/or have the won the league MVP award, it's clear that you do not have to meet either of those standards to become a HHOFer. But it is equally clear that any player who can claim either of those awards on his resume is in an enviable position for potential HHOF induction.

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