In the wake of Kwame Brown being forced into the Lakers starting lineup until Andrew Bynum recovers from his knee injury, it brings to mind just how highly regarded Brown was coming into the 2001 draft and what a big hit Michael Jordan took for taking him No. 1 overall for the Washington Wizards.
So we figured it was time to take a look at the drafts beginning in 2001 to see just who has been the biggest bust. It used to be that three years were required to really get a feel for a player, although that has lengthened somewhat with so many high school players going so high (until the rule changed last year).
Clearly, Brown has been the biggest bust of the 2001 group, particularly when you compare the varying degrees of success Tyson Chandler, Pau Gasol, Jason Richardson and Eddy Curry have had after being taken immediately after him.
In 2002, Yao Ming was a no-brainer first overall pick and he's the best all-around center in the game today. Immediately after Yao were Jay Williams, Mike Dunleavy, Drew Gooden, and get this one ... Nikoloz Tskitishvili by the Denver Nuggets. Williams is impossible to gauge because a motorcycle accident after his rookie year ended his career. Dunleavy and Gooden have had solid, if slightly disappointing careers. Tskitishvili? He quickly faded into the woodwork and back to Europe. To make matters worse, the Nuggets took him instead of Amare Stoudemire or Caron Butler.
Unlike the lean 2002 draft, it was tough to go wrong in the 2003 draft, led by LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, et al. But somehow in a quirk of fate that gave them the second pick after a previous trade with the Grizzlies, the title-contending Detroit Pistons did blow a golden opportunity. With James the first pick overall, they gambled on this talented but completely unproven 18-year-old from Serbia & Montenegro -- the now infamous Darko Milicic. While the other guys became stars, Milicic languished on the bench before finally being traded to Orlando. Perhaps, ultimately, the pick the Pistons got in the deal that brought them Rodney Stuckey this season could help a lot, but Milicic failed to develop in Detroit because of no playing time on a contender. He improved in Orlando, but now seems to have completely stagnated on a Memphis team that badly needs him.
The 2004 quintet of Dwight Howard, Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon, Shaun Livingston and Devin Harris didn't have particularly great expectations, but Howard has already become a young superstar, Okafor an All-Star caliber power player, Gordon one of the great streak shooters in the game, and Harris has been solid in his growth at point guard for the Mavericks. But the best talent of all is Livingston, who had physical concerns in high school and they have manifested in the NBA. He is a spectacularly skilled point guard, but he could be out the rest of the season after a horrible knee injury last February. Will he ever become the player he teased to be? We can only hope.
The group from 2005 has been solid across the board. Top pick Andrew Bogut isn't the immediate All-Star some had figured him to be, but he is a very good all-around center with every skill well developed. He's just not the kind of aggressive personality necessary to dominate. Second pick Marvin Williams didn't get it going until this season, but he's got the skills to be a top-level player in the league for many years. Nonetheless, the Hawks may never get over taking Williams instead of Deron Williams or Chris Paul, the third and fourth picks. The Hawks needed -- and still need -- a point guard. Those two guys will be stars in this league for the next decade, with every team hoping to find the next Williams or Paul in the draft. Although not at the same level, Raymond Felton is just a notch below as a point guard who would have helped the Hawks immensely. Because he has been buried on a bad Bobcats team until this season, a lot of people haven't recognized what a superb talent Felton is as well. But to the Hawks credit, they stuck with Williams and he is becoming the impact player he had hoped.
It's too early to really gauge 2006 and 2007 because the players are so young and undeveloped, but the 2006 crew of Andrea Bargnani, LaMarcus Aldridge, Adam Morrison, Tyrus Thomas and Shelden Williams has already shown enough to get a read. Bargnani is struggling after a great rookie year, but has already shown why he was No. 1. Aldridge has been exceptional this season, Thomas has been up and down, and Morrison unfortunately suffered season-ending knee surgery. But the Hawks took another forward named Williams and this guy looks like a marginal NBA player at best -- again passing on a guy who could have been their point guard -- Brandon Roy. Too bad this year's top pick Greg Oden never saw the end of training camp due to microfracture surgery, but second pick Kevin Durant is already showing all the skills that made him Mr. Everything of college basketball as a freshman at Texas last year. The Hawks got it right at forward this time with Al Horford, proving if you get enough top five picks, eventually you'll hit a couple. Mike Conley Jr. is finally coming around at Memphis, and Jeff Green looks solid with Durant in the rebuilding of the Sonics.
It's just too early to declare busts out of the last two drafts, although it doesn't look like Shelden Williams will ever be much more than a good guy to fill out a roster.
So just who is the biggest bust since 2001?
To me it comes down to three players -- Kwame Brown, the name that began this whole scenario in 2001 with the Wizards; Denver's Nikoloz Tskitishvili in 2002; and Darko Milicic in 2003 with the Pistons. None of them are with their original team, with Tskitishvili not even in the league. So let's break it down.
In Brown's case, it was the first class filled with high school kids at the top, and it wasn't as if there was a lot distinguishing them at that point of their lives. In 2002, it was a weak draft, but what could possibly been more intriguing about a young Tskitishvili than a young Amare Stoudemire or an already proven All-American in Caron Butler?
But even with a championship caliber team with the Pistons and the logic of taking a young 7-footer to develop in Darko Milicic, it's tough to get past the Pistons not taking Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh or Dwyane Wade. Even if you believed Anthony could have caused chemistry problems, Bosh would have been perfect. Or how about a three-guard offense with Wade in the rotation next to Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton?
And you want to know how much worse it looks even now, compare what Milicic has done to the last two picks of the 2003 first round -- Leandro Barbosa and Josh Howard. Ya think maybe the Pistons might prefer one of those two guys right now?
So it's a wrap. You win Darko, hands down ... the biggest bust since the 2001 draft.