Ok let's face it. The winner of the SEC, either Florida, Alabama, or LSU, is going to the national championship. In fact, a two loss SEC team that wins the conference would only have been denied that spot if there were two undefeated BCS conference champions. Florida can finally show it is the real deal against Alabama or LSU, Bama gets another quality win over the #1 team in America, or LSU beats both Alabama and Florida. National championship resume established.

I wish I could say the other spot was as up for grabs as it should be. If Texas wins out, it will be in the big game. But why? It will have quality(?) wins over Oklahoma State, Kansas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma....

...Sorry, but I'm not impressed. Only one of those teams has less than three losses with three or four games still left to go.

Oklahoma State (6-2) has lost to Houston and Texas which is nothing to be ashamed of but has no above average wins. It has been consistent but still has to play Texas Tech, Colorado, and Oklahoma, which could all become losses. Win out and this becomes a huge win for Texas.

Kansas (5-3) barely survived Iowa State and has rattled off three straight losses to Colorado, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech. This is probably not a quality team but at a time with Todd Reesing looked like a team you wanted to beat. They still have tough games left against Nebraska, Texas, and maybe Missouri.

Texas Tech (6-3) beat Nebraska and played Houston and Texas tough but also lost to Texas A&M. Games at Oklahoma State and against Oklahoma which they will be underdogs in.

Oklahoma (5-3) our BCS darlings. Even in averageness, they are overrated. I'll tell you this surprised me, Oklahoma's best win is over Kansas. They lost to Miami, Texas, and BYU. Losing to Texas should not be rewarded, and it should not be punished harshly. Losing to Miami isn't huge but it also should not be rewarded even though it was close. BYU, remember them? Let's play the pretend I'm a BCS voter game. "BYU sucks I mean they aren't even in a BCS conference and lost to Florida State and TCU." Okay maybe I'll agree with you once. This loss is unforgivable on top of two other losses. This team is shockingly average against real competition.

Now if you didn't catch this we still have Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech, Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma, and Texas Tech v. Oklahoma. Spread those three losses among those teams and you might have a team not looking like as much of a quality win for the Longhorns.

I am not a Texas hater. In fact, I like Texas. How do you not respect a team with the crazy winning percentage they have over the years in a major conference? Texas should have been in the championship last year. However, I am all about being fair and not going on name recognition alone, which has been a disturbing trend in college football lately. I know people want Colt McCoy in the big game to see what he does. All I'm saying is if they go undefeated they should not be considered shoe-ins for the championship game like they currently are.

Who would replace them? Who is better? Is anyone?

See you in part two where I try and figure that out....

These are the predictionsI had written down in my blog. Not too happy with myself for some of them. I'll review one by one along with two picks that were not in my original blog.

1. Notre Dame will win eight regular season games next year and lose in their bowl game.-this is the only pick I still feel okay about which was actually going out on a limb. The fighting Irish are 5-2 at this point and should win games against Navy and Syracuse. Add that with a win against either Boston College or Pittsburgh and a loss to USC and there is your eight wins.

2. Georgia will win the SEC. Unlikely at this point. Florida is a major stepping stone and that Alabama loss is still hurting. They are still in the fight though so we'll see.

3. USC will win the Pac 10 and play in the national championship game. Again unlikely. I don't feel too bad about this pick the way that USC was considered godly at one time this season, but the national championship is going to be hard to get to this year once again for the Trojans.

4. Oklahoma will win the Big Twelve and play in the national championship game. Ouch. Another miss I don't feel awful about, but this is now VERY unlikely since Texas would have to lose twice for Okla to get to the conference championship. Not going to happen.

5. Tim Tebow will not win the Heisman this year. This is probably my weakest pick of all considering how many possibile candidates there are in any season. However, all the talk of the time was on how Tebow was so likely to get better and if he did better how would he not get the Heisman again?

6. Ohio State will win the Big Ten. I don't feel good about this one. I just went with what seemed obvious. Ohio State with much of the same lineup with a year's maturity would make it through the weak Big Ten again wouldn't they? Darryl Clark came out of nowhere to me and energized Penn State.

Here was my other pick not showing up in my original blog.

7. Percy Harvin will win the Heisman. I saw this guy play last year a few times and he is electric. Give him the ball in space and he is gone down the field outsprinting the entire defense. No matter who I picked it was going to be difficult, and since he is at least being considered at the moment I feel okay about my choice.

And finally, the pick I was too chicken to make.....

Michigan will have its first losing season in forty years.  I had it written down at one point. I really did. Then I looked at the schedule and added up likely wins and likely losses in my mind. I got a number above .500 and said well, I guess I can't say that. Turns out that wasn't just me being a homer for my own team, I just did not realize the extent to how badly Michigan would be. The defense has been pathetic for supposedly being experienced, while the offense has actually exceeded my expectations at times. This was supposed to be a team not giving up many points and not able to score many but it is just bad all over. But if thats the sacrifice you make for a national championship in five years, so be it.