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I got a comment on my post the other day to the effect of "finally we have a good Race to the Chase", and I thought, really? I felt like I remembered all of the Richmond races having SOME level of drama, and we've had big-time drivers miss the Chase nearly every year. This year's Race to the Chase SEEMS really close, but is it any closer than in previous years? I thought I'd break it down.
Note: I think Jeff Gordon is IN the Chase, and he is 166 points above 12th-place right now, so I'm making the cut-off for Chase spots that appeared to be clinched at 150 points above the cut-off for that season.
2004 - after 21 races
Chase spots "clinched": 6 out of 10
Drivers <150 points ABOVE the cut-off: 4
Drivers <150 points BELOW the cut-off: 5
The first Chase for the Nextel Cup. Nobody really knew going in what to expect, including NASCAR, who had that silly 400-point cut-off built as though it was even possible. (Over the last five seasons, being 400 points behind the leader would put you no worse than NINTH in the standings with five races to go.) At this point, there was major star-power locked into the Chase, with Jimmie Johnson (seeking his first title), Jeff Gordon (looking for #5 and coming off Indy win #4), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (in his finest season), Tony Stewart (the '02 champ), and Matt Kenseth (the defending champ) in the top-five in the standings. Elliott Sadler, fresh off a third-place run at the Brickyard, was sixth in points and 163 points clear of 11th.
Behind those six guys was a real dogfight. Kurt Busch was seventh in points, 104 ahead of rookie Kasey Kahne in 11th. Between them were Bobby Labonte driving a Joe Gibbs Chevrolet, Kevin Harvick, and Ryan Newman in the last Chase spot. Right behind Kasey (and I mean RIGHT behind) was his Evernham Motorsports teammate, Jeremy Mayfield, just one point back. 1999 series champion Dale Jarrett was 55 points out of the Chase in his Robert Yates Racing Ford, and he had just finished second at the Brickyard. Jamie McMurray was 109 points out of the Chase in his Ganassi Dodge, and Mark Martin sat 15th, 123 points out of the Chase.
2005 - after 21 races
Chase spots "clinched": 6 out of 10
Drivers <150 points ABOVE the cut-off: 4
Drivers <150 points BELOW the cut-off: 4
After 2004's extremely close fight to make the Chase, 2005 brought a different sort of wild lead-up to Richmond. A couple of familiar names were atop the standings - Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson, but Greg Biffle's breakout season had him in third-place, and Rusty Wallace had a rebound year that saw him move from 17th in the standings after Indy '04 to fourth in '05. Kurt Busch was well-positioned to defend his '04 title from fifth-place, and Mark Martin was sixth.
The next group of drivers was an interesting mix of younger drivers and veterans. Ryan Newman was seventh, followed by Jeremy Mayfield, Dale Jarrett, and Carl Edwards, who was in his first full season for Roush Racing. The guys trying to get from the outside-in were led by Jamie McMurray in 11th, Elliott Sadler in 12th, and Kevin Harvick in 13th.
However, none of the drivers I've mentioned were the REAL story of the RttC '05. Notice who I HAVEN'T mentioned yet? Jeff Gordon was mired in 14th in points, 87 behind Edwards, but he was in MUCH better shape than Matt Kenseth, who was 158 points out of the Chase. And if Kenseth barely had a pulse, what did that say for Dale Earnhardt Jr., himself 23 points behind Kenseth?
2006 - after 21 races
Chase spots "clinched": 5 out of 10
Drivers <150 points ABOVE the cut-off: 5
Drivers <150 points BELOW the cut-off: 2
I should put an asterisk of something by the "clinched" drivers for 2006. Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth were WAY out in front in points, but third-place Jeff Burton was only 174 points above 11th, and Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick were tied for fourth, 158 points above 11th. Behind them were five drivers separated by 100 points - Mark Martin, rookie Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Gordon and Junior were trying to make the Chase after failing to qualify in 2005, and Stewart found himself just 44 points above the cut-off to make the Chase while trying to defend his 2005 championship.
They were not lacking for talented drivers trying to Chase them down, either. Kasey Kahne and Greg Biffle, each trying to make their second Chase, were 11th and 12th in points, with Kasey only 37 points behind Junior for 10th. However, there were no other drivers within shouting distance of the Chase - Kurt Busch was next in 13th, 164 points back, and Carl Edwards was 14th, out by 232 points.
Of course, we all remember what happened - Kasey finished third at Richmond and knocked Tony out of the Chase. In response to seeing Gordon, Junior, and Smoke all miss the Chase in a two-year span, NASCAR expanded the Chase to twelve drivers, and in response to Tony's three race wins during the Chase, NASCAR changed the seeding in the Chase as well.
2007 - after 21 races
Chase spots "clinched": 10 out of 12
Drivers <150 points ABOVE the cut-off: 2
Drivers <150 points BELOW the cut-off: 2
Last year's RttC? Not an all-timer, let's just put it that way. Jeff Gordon was out in front by a country-mile (366 points!) and the top group of drivers had pulled away, leaving essentially a three-man race for two Chase spots. The only redeeming thing about the '07 RttC was that the third guy in line was Dale Earnhardt Jr., whose repeated expired motors placed him 13th in points after Pocono, seven behind Kurt Busch and 45 points behind his Dale Earnhardt Inc.-teammate Martin Truex Jr. Junior's pending move from DEI made it more interesting, but it didn't make the competition any better and ultimately, and fittingly, Junior's motor blew up again at Richmond, putting Bowyer and Busch in the Chase.
2008 - after 21 races
Chase spots "clinched": 6 out of 12
Drivers <150 points ABOVE the cut-off: 6
Drivers <150 points BELOW the cut-off: 2
The 2008 RttC at this point most closely resembles the 2006 version, with six drivers bunched tightly above the cut-line and only two drivers really within striking distance. None of the drivers currently in the top-12 would be in their first Chase if they qualify, so it is a fairly veteran group. Tony Stewart is in ninth, just as he was with five races remaining in 2006 when he (cue ominous music) missed the Chase. Matt Kenseth is 13th, 11 points out of the Chase in his bid to join Jimmie Johnson as the only drivers to qualify for all five Chases. And David Ragan is 14th, quietly lurking only 56 points out of the Chase. Drivers have come from further back to make the Chase twice, and Ragan has put together a very Clint Bowyer-in-'07-ish season, with only four top-five finishes and seven top-tens, but only two DNFs.
I guess after looking at it, I'd say we're not looking at the BEST Race to the Chase EVER or anything, but at least we seem to have some serious potential for drama over the next five weeks. Of course, after the nearly foregone conclusion of last season, it was going to be hard NOT to improve the Race to the Chase in 2008.
JJD's updated points standings after Pocono
Wednesday, August 6, 2008, 06:47 PM EST
[General]
The
second Pocono weekend has finally come-and-gone - man, that race is
interminably long. I realize the track owners are looking to make as
much money as possible, but with both races so close and rain delays
seemingly every year, they REALLY should make those races 400 miles
long. Count me in with everyone who is thinking that way.
With five races remaining until the Chase for the Sprint Cup, it looks like eight drivers are battling for six spots. The standings 1-14 are as follows: 1 Kyle Busch 3059 2 Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 2883 -176 3 Carl Edwards 2874 -185 4 Jimmie Johnson 2859 -200 5 Jeff Burton 2833 -226 6 Jeff Gordon 2678 -381 7 Kasey Kahne 2592 -467 8 Greg Biffle 2589 -470 9 Tony Stewart 2569 -490 10 Denny Hamlin 2547 -512 11 Kevin Harvick 2520 -539 12 Clint Bowyer 2512 -547 13 Matt Kenseth 2501 -558 14 David Ragan 2466 -593 The top-5 drivers are most certainly IN the Chase, and I'm reasonable sure Jeff Gordon is not going to lose his 177-point cushion over 13th-place. What is interesting is looking at where the eight battling drivers are in point over the last five races. 7 Kasey Kahne 2592 -467 Last 5 races: 634 points (6th) 8 Greg Biffle 2589 -470 Last 5 races: 570 points (14th) 9 Tony Stewart 2569 -490 Last 5 races: 661 points (3rd) 10 Denny Hamlin 2547 -512 Last 5 races: 539 points (16th) 11 Kevin Harvick 2520 -539 Last 5 races: 630 points (7th) 12 Clint Bowyer 2512 -547 Last 5 races: 588 points (12th) 13 Matt Kenseth 2501 -558 Last 5 races: 609 points (11th) 14 David Ragan 2466 -593 Last 5 races: 621 points (10th) ALL of those drivers have been VERY close, with none slumping too badly. What that means is while you would tend to follow the drivers up-front - check to see if any of these eight guys experience misfortune and end up near the back. One 40th-place finish could be enough to knock a driver out of the Chase. Incidentally, a guy who should be REALLY hacked off is Martin Truex Jr. Without the 150-point penalty he would be 52 points behind David Ragan, and he has scored the eighth-most points over the last five races, so he would be poised to capitalize on misfortune instead of 17th in points. In JJD points news, Carl Edwards has finished second and first the last two weeks, and with Kyle Busch's two subpar results (15th at Indy and a bad-luck 36th at Pocono) he has closed right up on Busch. Kyle and Carl each have a series-leading eight top-two finishes in 2008. (Jimmie Johnson is next with five top-twos, and Kasey Kahne is the only other driver with more than two.) SPRINT CUP (DRIVERS) Rank Points LW 1 Kyle Busch 240 1 2 Carl Edwards 200 2 3 Jimmie Johnson 167 3 4 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 146 4 5 Jeff Gordon 126 5 6 Denny Hamlin 123 5 7 Tony Stewart 118 11 8 Kasey Kahne 114 7 9 Greg Biffle 108 7 10 Jeff Burton 106 9 Matt Kenseth 106 10 12 Clint Bowyer 96 12 13 Kevin Harvick 79 13 14 David Ragan 65 17 15 Ryan Newman 64 14 16 Kurt Busch 63 15 17 Brian Vickers 62 15 18 Martin Truex Jr. 52 18 19 Mark Martin 50 20 20 Elliott Sadler 45 19 JGR continues to lead the owners points as Hendrick and Roush continue to chase. The last two weeks have seen top-three finishes of HMS-RFR-JGR at Indy and RFR-JRG-HMS at Pocono. And - a big shout-out goes out to the Wood Brothers, who scored their first JJD point of the season when Bill Elliott led lap 170 Sunday. SPRINT CUP (TEAMS) However, Ron Fellows winning in Canada? Cool. Same with the overall experience of watching a rain race. Now, just put some REAL headlights in the cars next time (like ALMS cars) and have a REAL rain race. NATIONWIDE SERIES Rank Points LW 1 Kyle Busch 232 1 2 Clint Bowyer 189 2 3 Carl Edwards 166 3 4 Brad Keselowski 148 4 5 Denny Hamlin 143 5 6 Tony Stewart 124 6 7 David Reutimann 113 7 8 David Stremme 98 8 9 David Ragan 96 9 10 Kevin Harvick 93 10 11 Scott Wimmer 91 11 12 Mike Bliss 80 12 13 Joey Logano 71 13 14 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 64 14 15 Jason Leffler 60 15 16 Greg Biffle 57 16 17 Jeff Burton 51 17 18 Marcos Ambrose 50 21 19 Brian Vickers 47 18 20 Mike Wallace 46 19 Despite Joey Logano's unfortunate crash at the race's end Saturday, the 20 team continues to be way out in front. Interestingly for this week's race at the Glen, we'll get to see Kyle Busch in probably the worst car he's driven all season (at least on paper) - the #92 D'Hondt Motorsports Camry making its maiden appearance of 2008. Kyle's win at ORP (less 15 or so HP, as you know), amazingly bumped the part-time #18 Camry up to third in the JJD owners standings. Random aside: I wonder why Jack Roush doesn't run a full season with three cars? He's got the #60 and the #6 full-time, but he's got the #16 in 18 races and the #17 in 8 so far in 2008. I don't think the world would end if Matt Kenseth drive the #16 or Greg Biffle the #17 (Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin drive the #20 and we survive OK). Seems like Roush is just sacrificing some spots in the owners standings for no reason. The #16 is 23rd and they would probably be sniffing the top-10 if they were a full-time team. Jack must get a lot of cheddar to have the #17 out there sometimes when the #16 is parked. NATIONWIDE SERIES (TEAMS) Rank Points 1 Brad Keselowski 258 2 David Reutimann 227 3 David Ragan 226 4 Mike Bliss 186 5 David Stremme 176 6 Scott Wimmer 151 7 Jason Leffler 123 8 Mike Wallace 98 9 Jason Keller 95 10 Joey Logano 92 11 Marcos Ambrose 91 12 Steve Wallace 85 13 Kelly Bires 77 14 Bobby Hamilton Jr. 64 15 Dario Franchitti 53 Johnny Benson and Ron Hornaday continue their death struggle in the Craftsman Truck Series, finishing 1-2 last week at ORP. Benson's win ties Hornaday for the series lead with three in 2008. CRAFTSMAN TRUCK SERIES Rank Points LW 1 Johnny Benson 157 1 2 Ron Hornaday 154 2 3 Matt Crafton 123 3 4 Kyle Busch 109 4 5 Todd Bodine 98 5 6 Erik Darnell 96 6 7 Mike Skinner 83 7 8 Jack Sprague 71 8 9 David Starr 68 9 10 Rick Crawford 66 10 Two weeks after the much-ballyhooed horsepower reduction of Toyota's Nationwide engine, the results have been inconclusive at best. Kyle Busch won immediately at ORP, but no Toyota finished higher than 15th in the wacky Montreal event. However, Jacques Villeneuve and Joey Logano were among the leaders before accidents on the final lap cost them good finishes. MANUFACTURERS Rank Points LW 1 Toyota 1079 1 2 Chevrolet 968 2 3 Ford 758 3 4 Dodge 420 4 Tags:
Spell "debacle" I-N-D-Y
Monday, July 28, 2008, 07:53 AM EST
[General]
First, can I just say God bless whoever invented the DVR? Unlike everyone who tuned in at the start of the race, I got to FF through the entire thing, and I just watched the last green flag-stint. At least they didn't wreck and have to add to the misery and ridiculousness with a green/white/checkered-finish.
The thing I take away from the weekend, as always, is how NASCAR's point-system punishes teams for things beyond their control. There were seven cars who failed to finish on the lead lap yesterday. Three of them are major contenders for spots in the Chase - none of the three high enough in the points to afford a DNF without severely hampering their Chase hopes. Here is the bottom of the finishing order from yesterday's race, and how they got there. 43 Michael Waltrip - crashed on lap 5 42 Brian Vickers - blew engine on lap 106 41 Paul Menard - collected in 55 accident 40 Kurt Busch - crashed on lap 14 39 Juan Pablo Montoya - blown tire on lap 29 38 Matt Kenseth - blown tire on lap 47 37 Kevin Harvick - collected in 2 accident So, you've got Vickers' blown engine, which puts him now 132 points out of the Chase - can't blame anyone other than the team for that, I suppose, though a faulty part could easily be the culprit. However, Harvick and Kenseth - do their teams deserve ANY blame for what happened to them? Kenseth (and Montoya) was just a victim of the tire nonsense - what could they have done about that? Now, after being the hottest driver on the circuit - even moreso that Kyle Busch for a six-week stretch - thanks to Goodyear and NASCAR they find themselves barely in the Chase, only six points above the cutoff. That's better than Harvick can say, though. Thanks to being collected in Kurt Busch's accident - a classic wrong place, wrong time deal - Harvick is now OUT of the Chase by two measly points. TWO POINTS! That's one position at the tail end of the field. If ONE more car had blown a tire and been forced to DNF, Harvick would be IN the Chase. It's just more bad luck for him that he's currently out. At least there aren't millions of dollars at stake or anything, right? Tags:
JJD's updated points standings after Gateway
Thursday, July 24, 2008, 08:20 AM EST
[General]
I haven't posted an update since right after Dover, and right after that Kasey Kahne won at Pocono and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (!) won at Michigan. (Yes, I was sufficiently busy that I couldn't even be bothered to post after Junior won on Father's Day. That's "busy", people.) Since then, the Sprint Cup Series has actually become the new "Busch" Series, with Kyle winning at Sonoma, Daytona, and Chicago, and Kurt squeezing in a fuel strategy/weather/lucky-win at Loudon.
To me, Kyle's clearly been THE story of he season. With seven Cup wins, he's got a decent chance of becoming the 16th driver to win ten races in a season since 1972. He's got a pretty good chance at challenging the "modern era"-record of 13 wins in a season. He's ALREADY tied Kevin Harvick's 'modern era"-record for wins in all of the NASCAR series with 14, and if he wins four more times, with 18 wins he would have reached a level that has been achieved only five times in the history of NASCAR. Kyle is also leading the JJD points in both Sprint Cup and Nationwide Series. If he wins both titles he would be the first driver to win two in a season. The closest I've ever come to that happening was Kevin Harvick in 2006, when he finished fourth in Cup and first in the Busch Series. In 2005, Greg Biffle finished second in Cup and third in the Busch Series. SPRINT CUP (DRIVERS) Rank Points LW 1 Kyle Busch 239 1 2 Carl Edwards 162 2 3 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 142 3 4 Jimmie Johnson 127 4 5 Jeff Gordon 112 5 6 Denny Hamlin 108 6 7 Matt Kenseth 103 9 8 Greg Biffle 102 11 Tony Stewart 102 10 10 Jeff Burton 101 7 Kasey Kahne 101 7 12 Clint Bowyer 88 12 13 Kevin Harvick 67 15 14 Ryan Newman 64 13 15 Kurt Busch 62 13 16 Brian Vickers 61 16 17 David Ragan 54 17 18 Martin Truex Jr. 51 18 19 Mark Martin 40 19 20 Elliott Sadler 32 21 As dominating as Joe Gibbs Racing has been in 2008, mostly due to Kyle Busch, they aren't quite up to the level that Hendrick Motorsports was in 2007. Last year at this time, HMS had a nearly 100-point lead over then second-place JGR. SPRINT CUP (TEAMS) NATIONWIDE SERIES Rank Points LW 1 Kyle Busch 209 1 2 Clint Bowyer 185 2 3 Carl Edwards 156 5 4 Brad Keselowski 147 4 5 Denny Hamlin 143 3 6 Tony Stewart 124 6 7 David Reutimann 113 7 8 David Stremme 98 8 9 Kevin Harvick 93 9 10 David Ragan 92 10 11 Scott Wimmer 77 11 12 Mike Bliss 66 12 Joey Logano 66 16 14 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 64 13 15 Jason Leffler 54 19 16 Greg Biffle 52 14 17 Jeff Burton 51 15 18 Brian Vickers 47 17 19 Mike Wallace 46 18 20 Kasey Kahne 35 20 While the #20 Camry continues to dominate the Nationwide Series, JR Motorsports' #88 team is having a somewhat underappreciated season. I feel like the real place to evaluate Nationwide drivers in via the owners points, because with so many drivers being part-time in the series it skews the drivers standings toward the guys who run every race. (A good example is Brad Coleman, who is 16th in drivers points. The team, however, is 24th in owners points, 23rd out of 35 teams that have attempted every race.) After Dover the 88 team was tenth in my owners points, but with several strong performances they have moved up to fifth in points, by far the highest-ranked team that does not use any Cup drivers. NATIONWIDE SERIES (TEAMS) Rank Points 1 Brad Keselowski 254 2 David Reutimann 227 3 David Ragan 218 4 David Stremme 174 5 Mike Bliss 170 6 Scott Wimmer 132 7 Jason Leffler 115 8 Mike Wallace 97 9 Jason Keller 95 10 Joey Logano 86 11 Kelly Bires 77 12 Steve Wallace 75 13 Marcos Ambrose 71 14 Bobby Hamilton Jr. 63 15 Dario Franchitti 53 Kyle Busch isn't leading the Craftsman Truck Series standings, but he left quite an impression on them. NASCAR has three drivers separated by five points, but in my standings Matt Crafton is quite a bit behind in third. What's the difference? On green/white/checkered finishes Kyle's dumped both Ron Hornaday (at Michigan) and Johnny Benson (at Martinsville), costing each of those drivers roughly 80 points as a result. CRAFTSMAN TRUCK SERIES Rank Points LW 1 Johnny Benson 136 2 2 Ron Hornaday 135 1 3 Matt Crafton 111 4 4 Kyle Busch 104 5 5 Todd Bodine 98 3 6 Erik Darnell 82 6 7 Mike Skinner 80 7 8 Jack Sprague 71 8 9 David Starr 68 10 10 Rick Crawford 65 9 It will be interesting to see if there is an impact from NASCAR's decision to make Toyota drop some horsepower from their Nationwide Series engines. Taken individually, Toyota does lead all three of the series in my manufacturer's points, but they do have their biggest advantage (+59 points) in the Nationwide Series. (Compared to +39 in Cup and +26 in trucks.) MANUFACTURERS Rank Points LW 1 Toyota 995 1 2 Chevrolet 871 2 3 Ford 670 3 4 Dodge 371 4 Tags:
A serious question
Tuesday, July 22, 2008, 08:15 AM EST
[General]
So, you are in charge of NASCAR, and you need to come up with a way to determine your season champion. You come up with a point-system - the best you can come up with at the time - and say "from this point forward, anyone will know who has had the best season - they just need to look at the points standings." I mean, no one likely said those ACTUAL words, but I'm sure that was the intent, otherwise, what is the purpose of the point-system, right?
Then, let me ask you this - who has had the BETTER 2008 Nationwide season so far, Johnny Chapman or Joey Logano? I'm pretty sure everyone who would read this blog knows who Joey Logano is, so let me give you a bit of background on Johnny Chapman. From Statesville, NC, Chapman is a 40-year old driver who has made 81 NASCAR starts with zero career top-ten finishes. Started one Winston Cup race in 1993, earned $6,526, which is $6,526 more than Joey Logano's Cup-level career earnings, to be sure. As far as I can tell, his best finish in any NASCAR race is a 13th-place result at the 1996 Busch Series season-opener at Daytona. (Honestly, I'm not sure how the Nationwide Series could be going through some "crisis" when a guy with that resum Tags:
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