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    Friday, August 18, 2006, 02:23 PM EST [England]

    Now that this World Cup business is safely behind us we can again turn our attention to the real championships in football.


    No disrespect, folks, but last we looked there were only about six high-quality teams in Germany 2006 while the rest were flailing away trying hard not to lose. The best football is club football these days. That's been the case since the creation of the "super leagues," and the EPL is very much in the vanguard of this new wave.


    Thanks to the fact that nobody quite seems to know in Italy which players will actually show up for the big clubs on opening day (to say nothing of which division they'll be playing in) Europe right now has just two truly world-class leagues getting underway. They are England's Premiership and Spain's "Primera" - Germany still trails by a slender, but noticeable margin.


    We feel it is safe to say that these two countries will dominate the European Cup season: At least three EPL clubs and three Spanish clubs will reach the last eight of UEFA Champions League before we even know the draw for the group stages. A German side, perhaps a Dutch or Portuguese entry, or even an Italian side - if they are actually playing instead of simply arranging results to save on the travel costs - should complete the quarterfinals.


    We are mindful that detractors of English football (and boosters of other leagues) will point out that there are really just a small handful of clubs competing for the title this season. Yet how many teams can truly compete in Spain, or in our own NFL, NBA or baseball? The fact is, England may have only a handful of teams that can seize the title, but well over half of this league is stocked with quality - a good dozen of these teams could hold their own in any league around the planet.


    Yes, we're also aware that the new season is opening on a sour note as English fans are voting with their feet. Viewers will see some empty seats in the Premiership this weekend on their TVs as there are a number of games that have yet to sell out. Part of this is due to the increased number of games available on TV, for starters, but we admit that part of this is due to the prevailing wisdom that Chelsea has the league locked up.


    But, as we're rarely ones to go along with convention, we're begging to differ.


    The fact is that while a year ago we could confidently give the Londoners the title before the first ball was kicked, this new season is not quite so predictable. Don't start thinking that Reading is about to challenge for the title. But we do believe there are four teams who could win the EPL this season: Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool or Manchester United.


    The history of the Premiership also suggests that at least one team will be the surprise of the season. It was Everton a couple of years ago, and Tottenham last year, and it is sure to be someone else this season as, sorry to say for Spurs fans, history also suggests that it is far, far harder to repeat an unexpectedly good season. While the White Hart Lane loyalists are no doubt dreaming of a top-4 EPL finish this time after coming so close they may well discover that the weight of expectations will drag them back into the middle of the table.


    We also can confidently predict that Reading, Sheffield United and Watford will be lucky to escape relegation. It doesn't take much of a grasp of the modern football world to note that gaining promotion is a poisoned pawn for teams which suddenly must spend with the big boys - but often have little chance to even consolidate in their season among the elite. And were we a Manchester City supporter we think we'd be looking at finishing at least one place above the three newcomers while hoping for the best.


    The rest of the field is largely a collection of teams that can win on the day, but not often enough., Bolton, Blackburn, Newcastle and Everton can make runs. We'd like to think that newly purchased Aston Villa can make a return to past form.. But for Fulham, Charlton, West Ham United, and others of that ilk, fans will see teams that compete hard every day but lack the depth of quality talent to do more than be spoilers as far as the league race is concerned.


    Which brings us back to the four contenders:


    1) Chelsea has so much talent that it may seem ridiculous to have doubts about the prospects at Stamford Bridge. However, even very good teams with very good management (Chelsea has both) invariably reach a point where there are too many horses and not enough drivers. Last season it appeared that the Chelsea mystique was waning. In Germany, the efforts of the two-year slog through every competition seemed to have taken its toll on Frank Lampard, (John Terry apparently does not know what being tired is all about.) Jose Mourinho's team is the favorite to make it a championship treble - but we don't think they'll run away with it.


    2) Our pick to push the Blues is Liverpool. This is clearly a confident bunch with the talent and spirit to win its first EPL title. (Yes, that's right: the Reds have not won a league title since 1989-90, before the EPL came into existence.) Manager Rafa Benitez has been saying all the right things, and the additions of Jermaine Pennant Craig Bellmay will help. Liverpool has to overcome its nasty habit of dropping points against weaker teams, and do a better job of recovering at home after playing well in Europe or against a major rival, to be sure. But this is a squad to watch.


    3) Manchester United is always in the picture. If Wayne Rooney is truly back to full fitness even the loss of Ruud van Nistelrooy can be overcome, but we still have questions about the Red Devils' defense and cannot help wondering at what point Edwin van de Sar will simply get old. The return of Paul Scholes must help, and there is optimism about the addition of Michael Carrick from Tottenham. Yet Sir Alex Ferguson is in the hot seat for the first time in a while: We have grave doubts as to whether or not the Glazers will accept another "losing" season. What United need is a fast start that would enable them to regain a swagger that seems to have disappeared. While common sense argues that the team isn't good enough to win it, there is every reason to think that if anyone can unseat Chelsea it is a hungry, angry and under-pressure Ferguson.


    4) Arsenal has a bright new home and new Czech midfielder Tomas Rosicky but have the same set of questions that dogged the Gunners last year. Unsettled Ashley Cole and Jose Antonio Reyes still must be dealt with and there is not much depth in the back. The team also lost some big bodies and there are legitimate questions whether the Gunners can prosper in overtly physical contests. But the Gunners have a bevy of attacking talent and the will to play an open, finesse style. Whether they can concentrate on the EPL and Europe simultaneously remains to be seen; that's something Arsene Wenger has yet to prove his side can do. Of the four, Arsenal has the worst chance of finishing atop the table.


    Our picks to round out the top ten:


    5) Tottenham. Swelled by Didier Zokora and Dimitar Berbarov, Spurs look like up-and-comers. The question, of course, is if they are overachievers. Jermain DeFoe must have a breakout season.


    6) Bolton. Allardyce's boys are unfashionable, but this a team that is truly a pain in the butt to play against. They lack a breakout forward, but have a solid middle with Kevin Nolan and Gary Speed and grind out a lot of games.


    7) Newcastle. Losing Michael Owen is a big blow, but Damien Duff was a solid pickup. Not titleists, but a good mid-table side.


    8) Blackburn. Is the loss of Craig Bellamy addition by subtraction? Time will tell. This is a solid side, and if Jason Roberts can deliver, Rovers could cruise.


    9) Everton. A make or break season with a big gamble on Manchester United's Tim Howard joining them in the nets. The Yank has proven he can play - but has his confidence returned? Andy Johnson should help, and getting rid of Duncan Ferguson is a blessing in disguise.


    10) West Ham United. Dean Ashton's injury has already cast a pall over Alan Pardew's men, but some good off-season pickups in Lee Bowyer, Johnathan Spector and Carlton Cole should strengthen what was a good squad to begin with.

    3.7 (2 Ratings)

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