On the pregame show of Super Bowl XLIII on NBC, Jerome Bettis was asked "We know who you're picking, but why do you think the Steelers will win?"  Bettis smiled and said "because defense wins championships."  

Way to earn your paycheck, Jerome.  Stating "defense wins championships" is not analyzing the game, and it's not even the truth.  Playing great defense will ultimately improve a team's chances of winning the Super Bowl, but it guarantees absolutely nothing (other than that some numbskull former football player will proclaim that defense as a "Super Bowl" defense).  

It's appalling how little former NFL players, coaches, and bigwig writers actually know about football.

If great defenses really did win championships, then why even have the playoffs or the Super Bowl?  Just give the trophy to whosever defense finished number one in the regular season.  In 2008, the Pittsburgh Steelers indeed finished with the best defense in the NFL during the regular season.  But their defense didn't win them the Big Game.

Kurt Warner shredded Pittsburgh's number one rated defense to the tune of 377 yards and 3 touchdowns.  He averaged 8.3 yards per attempt net, converted 20 out of 31 completions for first downs, and despite dropping back 43 times, was sacked only twice for a loss of 3 yards.

The Steelers won Super Bowl XLIII because they had to come from behind in the 4th quarter, and Ben Roethlisberger and Santonio Holmes were unstoppable.  Arguably the two most valuable players for the Steelers played on the offensive side of the ball.

Not all Super Bowl winning teams have a great defense in common.  A look at recent Super Bowl teams reveals the biggest misnomer in the NFL (Defensive Rank is by points allowed per game).

2008 Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers - Defensive Rank: 1
2008 Loser: Arizona Cardinals - Defensive Rank: 28

2007 Winner: New York Giants - Defensive Rank: 17

2007 Loser: New England Patriots - Defensive Rank: 4

2006 Winner: Indianapolis Colts - Defensive Rank: 23

2006 Loser: Chicago Bears - Defensive Rank: 3

2005 Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers - Defensive Rank: 3

2005 Loser: Seattle Seahawks - Defensive Rank: 7

2004 Winner: New England Patriots - Defensive Rank: Tied 2

2004 Loser: Philadelphia Eagles - Defensive Rank: Tied 2

2003 Winner: New England Patriots - Defensive Rank: 1

2003 Loser: Carolina Panthers - Defensive Rank: 10

2002 Winner: Tampa Bay Bucs - Defensive Rank: 1

2002 Loser: Oakland Raiders - Defensive Rank: 6

2001 Winner: New England Patriots - Defensive Rank: 6

2001 Loser: St. Louis Rams - Defensive Rank: 7

2000 Winner: Baltimore Ravens - Defensive Rank: 1

2000 Loser: New York Giants - Defensive Rank: 5

1999 Winner: St. Louis Rams - Defensive Rank: 4

1999 Loser: Tennessee Titans - Defensive Rank: 15

1998 Winner: Denver Broncos - Defensive Rank: 8

1998 Loser: Atlanta Falcons - Defensive Rank: 4

1997 Winner: Denver Broncos - Defensive Rank: 6

1997 Loser: Green Bay Packers - Defensive Rank: 5

1996 Winner: Green Bay Packers - Defensive Rank: 1

1996 Loser: New England Patriots - Defensive Rank: 14

1995 Winner: Dallas Cowboys - Defensive Rank: 3

1995 Loser: Pittsburgh Steelers - Defensive Rank: 5

The only conclusive piece from this is that once a number 1 defense reaches the Super Bowl, they are the favorite, at 5-0 in the last 13 years.  4 times in 13 seasons the lesser ranked defense won the game.  15 out of the 26 teams were ranked in the top 5.  

The 2006 Colts had one of the worst defenses of any playoff team in NFL history, and had by far the worst rushing defense of any playoff team ever.  But, thanks to a #2 ranked offense, they beat the Bear's 3rd ranked defense.  By contrast the 1995 Chiefs were ranked number 1 in the NFL in rushing yard defense, passing yard defense, and total points allowed.  Yet, they lost in the first round of the playoffs.  

The ranks of the offenses for the winning teams?  20, 14, 2, 9, 4, 12, 18, 6, 14, 1, 2, 1, 1, 3, 1, 2.  The number 1 ranked offense is 4-1 over the last 13 years, and 20 out of 26 teams were a top 5 offense.  

The numbers are almost a wash.  It doesn't matter if you have a great offense.  It doesn't matter if you have a great defense.  History shows that the winning team has great balance.

It isn't one great player or a group of great players, but an entire team that gets hot, lucky, or sustains dominance for postseason that wins the Championship. 


I don't care what you have to say on a pregame
show.

Another common misperception in the NFL is that great quarterbacks will win the Super Bowl.  If that were true, the Dolphins, 49ers, and Broncos would have won every Super Bowl from 1983 to 1997, as almost inarguably, Joe Montana, Dan Marino, and John Elway are 3 of the top 5 QBs in NFL history.  If a great QB is required to win a Lombardi Trophy, then why is Doug Williams a Super Bowl MVP?  How is it that Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson have hoisted the ultimate team award?  What business did Kerry Collins, Rex Grossman, Chris Chandler, and Stan Humphries have even playing in that game?  

I'm no longer interested in the opinion of anybody who doesn't acknowledge the importance of a complete, balanced team.  An individual who relies on stupid, half century old clich