I'm tired of making boring sports prediction the old fashioned way.  It's time to live it up a little bit.  Here are 30 Haikus to predict what I think will happen in 2009 for all MLB teams:

 

Arizona Diamondbacks
----------------------------
Love the two Aces.
A. Dunn should have been retained.
Lineup needs power.

Atlanta Braves
------------------
Added high risk arms.
Obviously could pay off.
I don't count on it.

Baltimore Orioles
---------------------
Sold high on Bedard.
Markakis and Adam Jones
lead a youthful O.

Boston Red Sox
-------------------
Sure, they got pitching.
Misses Manny more and more.
Not his 'tude, but bat.

Chicago Cubs
-----------------
High expectations.
But here, I foresee trouble.
Good, but not great team.

Chicago White Sox
------------------------
Wise?  Are you kidding?
Leadoff is major weakness.
Central is open.

Cincinnati Reds
-------------------
I want to predict
good things this year for Cincy,
but Dusty still here.

Cleveland Indians
----------------------
Another year, and?
Stakes have been raised.  Balanced team.
Competes in Central.

Colorado Rockies
---------------------
Not sure what's their plan.
It doesn't include winning.
Rebuilding time now.

Detroit Tigers
-----------------
Has bad pitching staff.
Injured and inconsistent.
Can't win games this way.

Florida Marlins
------------------
Florida Marlins?
There's baseball in Miami?
Can't be that good then.

Houston Astros
------------------
Getting up in age.
Needs youth movement.  Could trade vets
for prospects later on.

Kansas City Royals
-----------------------
Coco Crisp: Great move!
Still, pitching will come up short.
Look out next year, boys.

Anaheim Angels
--------------------
Another old squad.
Guerrerro's MVP days
are long behind him.

Los Angeles Dodgers
--------------------------
Oh god!  Manny's back!
Torre's young guys play quite well.
Contenders out West.

Milwaukee Brewers
------------------------
Lost CC and Sheets,
So not much pitching is left.
Offense might carry.

Minnesota Twins
--------------------
Last season in dome.
And Mauer and Baker hurt.
Won't play well to start.

New York Mets
-------------------
Shored up biggest need.
Putz and K-Rod will produce.
Will be N.L. Champs

New York Yankees
-----------------------
I hate to say this.
But money indeed buys wins.
Yanks go all the way.

Oakland A's
---------------
What is moneyball?
Signed and traded for big names.
For sure better now.

Philadelphia Phillies
-------------------------
Plenty of talent.
Team has three MVPs!  Wow!
Repeating is tough.

Pittsburgh Pirates
--------------------
So many top picks
Yet team still stinks like skunk's butt.
'09: same story.

San Diego Padres
--------------------
Who plays on this team?
Try naming a player here
besides Jake Peavy.

San Fransisco Giants
-------------------------
Cy Youngs.  Much is made.
But Big Unit and Zito
ain't no good no more.

Seattle Mariners
-------------------
Love getting Grif back;
And Beltre will have big year.
It's still not enough.

St. Louis Cardinals
-----------------------
Pujols: "I'm healthy."
You mean, last year you were not?
Can do it alone.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
----------------------------
So young and so good.
Has Price and Longoria.
Wild Card bound team.

Texas Rangers
-----------------
Gotta love Hamilton.
Team will crush many homers.
Won't win without arms.

Toronto Blue Jays
---------------------
Sheets and Jays: Good fit.
Had great pitching last season,
Will need more this year.

Washington Nationals
--------------------------
Possesses first pick;
Consensus Ace is there; But
no cash to sign him.

Living near Chicago and being an avid sports talk radio connoisseur, I'm getting the sense that the Cubs' winning the National League Central Division title is a foregone conclusion.  This idea is loosely based on the simple observations that A) they won 97 games last season and, on paper, improved the team over the winter, and B) the rest of the NL Central division fails to provide any semblance of a formidable opponent.  I can't by any means disagree with these two observations.

But...

I can't help but keep an open mind about this team's chances.  I'm positive that hundreds of Cubs fans (and fans of other teams alike) will take one glance at my profile, read that I don't like the Cubs, and immediately discredit any opinion I have about this team.  It happens every single time I write about the Cubs, even if I have something nice to say.  So, at the risk of humiliating myself, I'm going to make what some may consider to be a bold statement:  The NL Central Division is a wide open race in 2009.

On MLB Network's 2009 preview show the night of Opening Day, all nine of the baseball experts picked the Cubs to run away with the division championship.  The consensus opinion on sports talk radio is that the Cubs will win their division "comfortably."  ESPN.com, Foxsports.com, and all the mainstream sports media outlets overwhelmingly believe the Cubs are the runaway favorites.  According to at least one Vegas sports book, the Chicago Cubs are no worse than a 3-to-1 favorite... to win the Pennant!

It's a gut feeling I have that the Cubs won't fare well in 2009.  But it does have a foundation based on observations and statistics.  Go ahead and call me crazy, but here are several reasons I believe all 6 teams in the NL Central have almost as good of a chance as any other to win the Division Crown.

1) Their starting pitching is full of questions
Carlos Zambrano can go in spurts where he looks like a top five pitcher in baseball, but when you average out his stats over the course of any season he's pitched, he's usually a #2 starter on any team.  Ryan Dempster came of a career season last year, and nary a person with a brain for baseball expects him to repeat it, perhaps not ever.  Rich Harden will spend time on the DL this year, and even if he doesn't, the Cubs don't plan on letting him go much further than 5 or so innings per outing, which will tax the bullpen over the course of 15-25 starts.  Ted Lily at his best is #3 starter.  It's not completely out of the question that Zambrano could lead the team with 16 wins and nobody else wins more than 13.


Zambrano only pitches like an Ace in a little more than
half his starts.

2) They rely heavily on injury prone players
In addition to Harden, the Cubs will rely too heavily on oft-injured outfielders Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley.  Bradley was brought in to provide balance from the left side of the plate, but he can't do that from the disabled list.  The 9-year veteran has only once in his career played more than 101 games.  The Cubs loss of Mark DeRosa means that they don't have a viable backup at either position, in addition to third base in the event Aramis Ramirez needs some time off.

3) Bradley's 2008 numbers are misleading
Bradley, if healthy, cannot be counted on for much in 2009 anyway.  In 2008, he batted .358 with a .466 OBP/.679 SLG/1.145 OPS at hitter friendly Rangers Ballpark.  On the road, the numbers tell a different story.  At .290/.410/.462/.872, his numbers are no slouch, but they are hardly worth the kind of money and hope the Cubs were willing to give him, especially considering his health history.

4) I don't trust Kevin Gregg
Let's face it.  Kerry Wood had a very good season last year and he bailed the Cubs out of several big games.  Now that he's gone, manager Lou Piniella rightly named Kevin Gregg the new closer-I say "rightly named" because I agree he should close as opposed to Carlos Marmol, but I would still rather have Wood if I were rooting for the Cubs-and I smell trouble.  Gregg closed out games for a Marlins team averaging less than 10,000 fans per game.  Make that 10,000 fans who don't give a hoot.  How will he fare when 44,000 screaming Cubs fans are roaring in August and September?  I don't think he'll be very good, especially since he's a flyball pitcher who doesn't strike out many batters.

5) Marmol won't be as good as last year either
As talented as this beast is, I don't think he can post numbers again like he did last year.  On top of that, he pitched 87.1 innings over 82 appearances in '08, insane numbers for a setup man, and he pitched in the 2009 World Baseball Classic and a Winter Ball league.  His arm figures to be extremely tired by July.

6) Lou Piniella is stubborn; and ignorant
There's no good reason why Piniella's opening day lineup should feature Kosuke Fukudome playing CF and batting second, but that's exactly what Sweet Lou has done.  Fukudome was maybe the 5th best outfielder on Japan's WBC team, and couldn't hit his way out of a wet paper bag in September last year.  By all eye witness accounts, nothing has changed in his swing or approach from then until now.  Alfonso Soriano is not a leadoff hitter, but guess who Lou's leadoff man is for all of 2009?  And Derek Lee's production has fallen off over recent years, yet Piniella insists that Lee bat third even though he barely had 20 homers and 90 RBIs last year for a tem that led the National League in runs scored.  Arguably the two best candidates for the 1 and 2 spots in the batting order, Ryan Theriot and Aaron Miles, will bat 7th and 8th.  That's inexcusable.


Cubs brass would love to buy him a one way
ticket to Japan.

7)  If Marmol and/or Gregg do fail, they are thin in relief depth
The Cubs' bullpen, other than Marmol, won't strike fear into many offenses, and their opening day roster does not contain a lefty reliever.

8) It's tough to win a division three years in a row
I've been trying desperately to find statistics on this, but I'm not having much luck.  Just based on my memory, I can't remember any recent history of any MLB team winning their division three years in a row.  The Braves and Yankees had their dynasties in the 90's, but it's been quite uncommon since then.  If teams get too cocky with their postseason chances, another team like the Tampa Bay Devil Rays will emerge and put them in their place.

9) The Cubs have the most undesirable contracts of any MLB team's outfield
The often injured, statistically misleading Bradley is owed $30 million over the next three seasons.  There's a really good reason Bradley has played on six teams in only nine seasons.  So why did GM Jim Hendry give him a 3-year contract?  It's beyond explanation.  Fukudome is owed $40.5 million over the next three seasons.  No team in MLB would take him.  None!  Soriano is due to make $93 million over the next five seasons.  He's 33 years old and his numbers have slipped considerably in his first two seasons with the Cubs already.  After belting 46 homers with 41 stolen bases in 2006 with Washington, he's only had 33 and 29 homers the last two seasons to go with 19 stolen bases in both seasons.  Yikes.


Thanks to Ryan Braun, the Brewers believe they have a chance.

So who do I predict will win the NL Central Division in 2009?  It's hard to tell.  I can't pick any one team with any degree of confidence whatsoever.  I do think the Cubs have as good of a shot as others.  I just don't think they are overwhelmingly the favorites.  All I can say is that the Cubs will not win nearly as many games as they did last year, and it might be a win-win for me as a baseball prognosticator.  If they win running away, I already told you at the beginning of this post that I might be crazy.  But if somebody else like the Cardinals (or Pirates?) surprises us, I'll point to April 6 and tell you "I told you so."

It's almost incomprehensible that the National Football League, America's most successful and popular professional sports league, could borrow suggestions from Major League Baseball, which has had on-again-off-again labor peace as far back as my 28-year-old brain can remember.  But I'm here to tell you it's true.  Right now, the NFL is looking at a strike for 2011 season. There seems to be three glaring discrepancies between the labor contract in NFL and in MLB, and, if I could wiggle my way into the negociating room, here are three suggestions I would bring to the table.

1 - Get Rid of the 'Franchise Player' Tag
Players flat out don't like it because it takes them off the open market and significantly decreases their chances of signing a longterm contract.  But coaches, GMs, and fans like to have the security blanket of knowing that, in case a star player does leave via free agency, they at least get draft pick compensation.  Rarely does an NFL team shell out the required two first-round picks to sign a Franchise Player.  In MLB there are Type A and Type B free agents instead.  I propose the NFL adopt this system.  When a contract runs out, using a formula based on length of service time and statistical analysis of the player, the commsioner's office designates all NFL free agents as a Type A, Type B, or no designation.  All free agents are free to negociate with any team, but if a Type A player chooses to sign with a team other than his original, the new team forfeits its first round pick to the original.  Losing a Type B free agent would net the original team the new team's second round pick.  First round picks are protected if the team is selecting in the first 20 spots (basically, if the new team didn't make the playoffs the year before, they can sign a Type A FA and lose only their second round pick instead of their first).  If a team signs multiple Type A/B players, the draft pick is the highest available (which could be the 3rd or 4th round), but can't be any lower than a 4th round pick.  If a team has no picks in the top four rounds, they must forfeit next season's draft pick in either the first or second round if they wish to sign a Type A/B.

2 - Make All Contracts Guarenteed
I have never been able to understand how an NFL team is able to cut a player and thus terminate the contract, but once the player signs, he's stuck.  This isn't fair to the player.  In MLB, contracts are guarenteed, regardless of injury or what-have-you.  This would essentially make signing NFL free agents more risky to the team, and would likely result in a lower base salaries.  But the player can take solice in the fact that ALL the money is guarenteed.  Newly signed Washington Redskin DT Albert Haynesworth's contract is for 7 years and $100 million, but it essentially is a 3-year deal for $42 million in guarenteed money.  All NFL contracts would be structured this way instead.  NFL teams can then apply for a salary cap adjustment if a player is injured and cannot play out the remainder of the contract (the team still plays the player, but is free to go over the salary cap with no penalty at the commissioner's discretion).

3 - Get a Rookie Salary Cap
True, Major League Baseball does not have a rookie salary cap, and although they do have "suggestions" for "slot money' (the recommended signing bonus a draftee should get depending on how high in the draft he is picked), it is very loosley enforced.  After all, it is only a suggestion.  The NFL needs a hard rookie cap and it shouldn't be based on what position a player plays because sometimes that is open to interpretation (is the guy a WR or TE? A DE or OLB?  A DT or DE? CB or FS?).  It should be based on draft position.  For example, the number one overall pick gets a $5 million signing bonus, #2 gets $4.95, #3 gets $4.90, all the way down the line.  All rookie contracts should be for three years (in MLB, once a player has three seasons of big league experience he is eligible for arbitration).  After three years the player has the option of signing a longterm deal with the team that drafted him, or sign a one year deal for an amount based on his on-field performances, but is at a minimum of $1.5 million and maximum of $6 million.  After 4 years of service, the player is an unrestricted free agent, but may be classified as a Type A or B by the commissioner's office.  The three year rookie contract is at a fixed rate of $500,000 the first year, $650,000 the second, and $900,000 the third.  This keeps rookie's salaries at a managable level and leaves more money for the veterrans who have actually earned their big payday. 

These changes are by no means subtle.  But they can help bring happiness to the owners, players, and fans of the NFL.  This is one facet between these two respective leagues where MLB actually has done something right.

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First thing's first: Happy New Year!  It's been a long time since I've made an entry, but for my final post of 2008 (or first post of 2009), I'm bringing back an old tradition.  Officially, Sports Graffiti has never seen the Year End Review/Upcoming Year Preview post, but back in the days when Tripod hosted my sports blog, and even later when it moved over to my own domain at www.lostedge.com, this particular entry was an all time classic.  The predictions have been remarkably accurate over the years, including an amazing run several years back when I correctly stated that the New Englad Patriots would defeat the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl--a full 13 months before the game kicked off.  Even more ridiculous than that... I got the final score exactly right too! 

Here we go...

2008 Rewards
All Awards are for the Calender Year

TEAMS
Best Pro Basketeball Team: Boston Celtics
Best College Basketball Team: Memphis Tigers
Best Pro Football Team: New England Patriots (they played their best games in 2007, then lost the Super Bowl in 2008 to the Giants, but they're still the best NFL team ever.)
Best College Football Team:  Florida Gators
Best Hockey Team: Detroit Red Wings
Best Baseball Team: Philadelphia Phillies
All Sport Coach of the Year: Joe Madden, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays
All Sport Executive of the Year: Dale Tallon, Chicago Blackhawks
Most Impressive Performance:  New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII
Comeback Team of the Year:  Chicago Blackhawks
Surprise Team of the Year:  Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

PLAYERS
Best Pro Basketball Player: Lebron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
Best College Basketball Player: Derrick Rose, Memphis Tigers (remember, since rewards are based on the calender year, Rose is eligible as a pro and as a collegian since in 2008, he was both)
Best Pro Football Player: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
Best College Football Player: Tim Tebow, Florida Gators
Best Hockey Player: Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins
Best Baseball Player: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
All Sport MVP: Lebron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
All Sport Rookie of the Year: Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
Most Impressive Performance:   Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics, during the NBA Playoffs (Sorry, Michael Phelps, but swimming isn't a sport)
Comeback Player of the Year: Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals 
Surprise Player of the Year:  Milton Bradley, Texas Rangers

2009 Predictions
A comprehensive look of what might happen in 2009

JANUARY
--In Wrigley Field, with temperatures topping out at 32 degrees, the Chicago Blackhawks defeat the Detroit Red Wings 3-2 in the NHL Winter  Classic.
--The Oklahoma Sooners defeat the Florida Gators in the BCS Championship Game 43-27.  MVP honors go to Chris Brown, who rushes for 135 yards and 3 TDs.
--Mike Shannahan is named head coach of the Cleveland Browns.
--Despite a vote of confidence from Jerry Jones, Wade Phillips is fired as Cowboys coach.
--A teary Brett Favre retires from football, again.

FEBRUARY
--Ray Lewis racks up 13 tackles and a fumble recovery in Super Bowl XLII as the Baltimore Ravens narrowly defeat the Minnesota Vikings 24-20 to take home the Lombardi Trophy.
--The day after the game, Bill Cowher resigns from his studio job at CBS to take on his new endeavor:  Head Football Coach of the New York Jets.
--Rounding out Baseball's free agent signings, Jason Giambi returns to the Oakland A's, Manny Ramirez joins the New York Yankees, the Red Sox bring back Derek Lowe, and Ben Sheets signs with the Atlanta Braves.
--Matt Cassell recieves the franchise tag from the Patriots.  He's traded to the Vikings for a first round pick.
--The Celtics' Paul Pierce creates a scare when he goes down hard and limps off the court during a regular season game.  He returns in the second half and scores 14 points.

MARCH
--Wake Forest, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and UCONN enter the NCAA Tournament as the #1 seeds.
--Before a standing room crowd of 56,000 at New Yankee Stadium, the Yankees beat the Cubs 5-2 in the stadium's first exhibition game.
--In a game that doesn't quite live up to expectations, North Carolina cuts down the nets in front of Georgetown, winning the National Championship 73-58.

APRIL
--The Arizona Cardinals trade WR Anquan Boldin to the Colts for second and fourth round draft picks.  Boldin goes on to lead the AFC in catches and touchdowns.
--Snow once again causes problems during MLB's opening week.  Home games for the Brewers, White Sox, Tigers, Cubs, and Indians are all postponed due to inclimate weather.
--For the second straight season, the Kansas City Chiefs are forced to burn a premium draft choice in their attempt to replace the pass rush of Jared Allen, and select DE Brian Orakpo from Texas as the third overall pick in the NFL Draft.  To the surprise of few, the Detroit Lions make QB Sam Bradford of Oklahoma the top choice.

MAY
--The Yankees place starter AJ Burnett on the disabled list with "shoulder inflamation."  Burnett doesn't return to the rotation until after the All Star break, but is only mediocre the rest of the season.
--Unable to garner interest from any MLB team, Sammy Sosa reluctantly retires. 

JUNE
--The Boston Bruins hoist the Stanley Cup on home ice, defeating the San Jose Sharks in 6 games.
--In his first game in Fenway Park as a visitor since being traded to the Dodgers, Manny Ramirez is booed (figuratively, of course) to death.  He goes 0-4 with an RBI in a Yankees 3-0 victory over the Red Sox.
--Kobe Bryant and the Lakers get their revenge.  The Lakers down the Celtics 4 games to 3 in the NBA Finals.  Bryant, who averages 37.0 ppg in 7 games, easily wins MVP.
--In a shocking turn of events, the Dallas Cowboys give Terrell Owens his outright release.  Owens signs a 1 year contract with the Redskins.
--Browns QB Derek Anderson is another cap casualty, as Cleveland dedicates its' offense to Brady Quinn.  Anderson signs with the Lions. 

JULY
--Red Wings goaltender Chris Osgood and defenseman Chris Chelios announce their retirements from the NHL.
--In the game of the year, young stud Aces face off in Tampa Bay.  The Ray's David Price no-hits the Mariners through 9 innings, but doesn't get the win.  Felix Hernandez shuts down the Rays, allowing 2 hits and zero runs through 9 innings.  Tampa Bay wins in the 11th on a walk off suicide squeeze bunt.
--The National League cannot win an All Star game if their lives depended on it.  The AL beats the NL 10-6 in the Mid-Summer Classic, earning home field advantage in the World Series.
--The White Sox trade slugger Jermaine Dye to the reeling Devil Rays, who find themselves 5 games behind the Red Sox for the AL Wild Card.
--Mark McGuire is once again ignored by Hall of Fame voters, getting onlly 37% of votes.  His silent frustration tells an obvious truth.
--Ben Gordon signs a lucrative multi-year contract with the Phoenix Suns.

AUGUST
--Chicago officials are seperated on a plan to rebuild Wrigley Field, as crumbling concrete forces park closures for random stretches throughout the summer.
--EA Sports debuts NFL Madden 2010.  Micheal Turner graces the cover.  His overall rating in the game is a 93.  He plays all 16 games in the 2009 season for the Falcons.
--The New York Mets begin their annual NL East decent a month early, losing 12 of 16 games and falling 4 games behind the Phillies in the divisional race.  They'll rebound to capture the divisional title.


SEPTEMBER
--The Chicago Cubs, amongst heated pressure from fans everywhere, fail to win their third straight divisional title.  They still hold on to win the NL Wild Card. 
--The Ravens unveil their Super Bowl banner on NFL opening night.  They beat the Chargers 21-14.
--Tom Brady makes his return to the New England Patriots.  His debut is unspectacular, however, as he throws for only 197 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs.  The Pats lose to the Colts 27-10.
--Lebron James shocks the NBA world, signing a 10 year contract extension with the Cleveland Cavaliers.  During the length of his contract he wins 5 MVPs, and 1 NBA Championship.
--Tony LaRussa resigns as manager of the St. Louis Cardinals.

OCTOBER
--All that money finally did what it's intended to do... the Yankees roll over Diamondbacks and win the World Series in 4 games, none of which are decided by more than 2 runs.  Derek Jeter wins the MVP, batting .408 in the series with a walk off Game 2 home run.  Mariano Rivera saves all 4 wins.
--Just 5 games into the season, Notre Dame officials convene and decide to fire coach Charlie Weis following the team's awful 1-4 start.
--Rogers Clemens publishes his tell all book in which he gives explicit details of his own steroid usage throughout his baseball career.  The book sells 2.5 million copies.
--Ryan Howard is named NL MVP after hitting 60 regular season home runs.  In the offseason, he is awarded an 8-year, $160 million contract.

NOVEMBER
--Among those who retire from MLB: Mariano Rivera, Frank Thomas, and Pedro Martinez.
--Ohio State QB Terrell Pryor has the best game of his career, passing for 340 yards and 3 TDs in a win over Michigan.
--The sale of the Chicago Cubs is finalized.  The new owners are a group of billionaires who plan to keep the team in Wrigley and upgrade the stadium in 2010, bringing a more modern look to the oldest stadium in baseball.
--The Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys both lose at home on Thanksgiving day.

DECEMBER
--Charlie Weis is back in the NFL.  He lands an offensive coordinator position with the Carolina Panthers.
--Norv Turner is fired as coach of the Chargers after they fail to make the playoffs. 
--The Indianapolis Colts and Atlanta Falcons enter the NFL playoffs as their respective conferences' top seeds, and are the favorites to meet in the Super Bowl.