It's still early in the week and I'm going to hold off on my predictions for a couple of days. Here's a quick look at the upcoming matches in the Big Ten. Enjoy!
Purdue @ Northwestern
Purdue is 2-5, Northwestern is 6-1. This should be a no-brainer and I still think it will be. On Purdue's behalf, I will say that their defense managed to hold Ohio State to just 16 points and Penn State to 20. Given how Ohio State has looked to me this year, I'm not totally surprised, but holding Penn State under three touchdowns is impressive. Evidently Purdue is one of those teams that plays just a notch under the level of their competition. If thier offense can put some points on the board, thier defense might potentially keep them in it, dispite giving up 141 points already this season. Emotion goes a long way...
Northwestern needs to bounce back from a tough loss to Michigan State. Purdue is the perfect team to do that against. After starting 6-0, the Wildcats had thier toughest obstacle against MSU. They get two very winnable games against Purdue and at Indiana. They should be 8-1 going into thier showdown at Minnisota.
#12 Ohio State @ #20 Michigan State
I'll be straight forward. I'm not a fan of OSU. I'm really tired of them squandering thier talent. The coaching staff makes terrible play calls, particularly in key drives where the game is on the line. With their level of talent, OSU should be undefeated and have some HUGE scores. Beating Purdue 16-3 really wasn't impressive. Michigan State is far too good to take lightly. Keep them too close and they'll burn you.
Brian Hoyer is a decent quarterback, but Javon Ringer is the key to MSU's offense. He's already carried 247 times for 1112 yards. A lot of backs don't see that kind of action (or success) in an entire season. Slow down Ringer and you put the game in the hands of Hoyer. He's fully capable of making plays, but no team is great when they're forced to play one-sided ball. The big question is: can the Buckeyes stop Ringer? If not, expect an upset and OSU's dreams of a NCG thrown out the window.
Michigan @ #3 Penn State
Two months ago, this looked like a marquis match. Now it just looks like a snooze fest. This game should hardly resemble practice for Penn State who dismantled Wisconsin to the tune of 48-7. Wisconsin is a much better team than Michigan this year.
I said it in my other post and I'll repeat it here. If I'm wrong, I invite someone to correct me, but I could almost swear I remember RichRod saying that he was going to "ease" the Wolverines into his system. If so, he didn't stick by it. They've abandoned Michigan football in favor of his style. Everyone expected that to happen, just not this year. If he would have let them play thier brand of football this year while getting used to his style of leadership, then introduced his offense next year, Michigan might have a winning record right now. Instead, he heaped everything on at once and now look at them. If it weren't for Purdue, I would pick Michigan to finish at the very bottom of the Big Ten this year.
JoePa has done a magnificent job with the Lions. Just when we think he's seen better days, he pulls out another "wow" team. I'm not ready to crown them National Champions, but pretty close.
Indiana @ Illinois
Indiana is in freefall. I almost feel sorry for them. What started out looking like a decent season went down the toilet. Last week was a must-win situation if they had any remaining hopes of a bowl game and they got plastered by Iowa. Illinois isn't going to be any easier for them. If both Shonn Greene and Jewel Hampton can run for 100+ yards, what's Juice & Company going to do?
Illinois is a decent team that had high hopes. Here they are at the midway point of thier season and mired at 3-3. In fairness, thier first two losses came to Missouri and Penn State; two top 25 teams, but losing to Minnisota didn't help thier situation much. They're a good enough team to potentially win out, but they'll have to step it up a lot. They've just never quite turned the corner they were looking to turn this year.
Minnisota - BYE
Minnisota's win over Illinois was a statement game. What a turnaround this team has made! Last year they were a miserable team, going 1-11. In just one year they've become bowl eligible with five games still left in the season. Unfortunately they still have Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State in those final five. They also get Michigan, which has turned out to be a good thing, and Purdue. I'm seeing an 8-win season for the Gophers and that's pretty darn good.
My Game of the Week (you'll find these are always Iowa games [at least I'm honest])
Wisconsin @ Iowa
Three weeks ago, I would have picked this game to be one of the most lopsided blowouts of the season. Wisconsin looked like a Big Ten Powerhouse and Iowa looked like a doormat. Things have changed a little.
Wisconsin is in meltdown. Losing to Michigan didn't look quite so bad at first, but now it looks kind of embarrasing. They kept it close against Ohio State, but so did Purdue. They were whipped soundly by Penn State. Suddenly, Wisconsin doesn't look so good. Allan Evridge has completed 53.8% of his passes, but has thrown 5 interceptions to only 5 touchdowns. That kind of thing will kill you. P.J. Hill is on track for a 1000 yard season, and that's a positive, but they haven't gotten it done in the big games.
Iowa, on the other hand, appears to be finding thier stride. That is, of course, if the Indiana game can be any kind of real sounding board. Indiana isn't very good, but Iowa didn't just beat them, they beat them. Two running backs had over 100 yards rushing, both lines dominated the action and Ricki Stanzi looked very comfortable under center. The most important improvement for Iowa was the lack of turnovers. After coughing the ball up or turning it over 8 times in just two games, the Hawkeyes finally figured out how to hang on to the ball. They made great plays on both sides of the ball and controlled the clock, keeping Indiana's defense on the field and thier offense off it.
Shonn Greene is a workhorse. He's averaging over 6 yards/carry and now has seven consecutive 100 yard games. He squares his shoulders when he runs and absolutely punishes defenders who dare to confront him. I'm a little disappointed that he hasn't even gotten an honorable mention in the Heisman talk. He's the only back in the country to have seven straight century games and has a better yd/carry average than anyone else. Even though Iowa's considered "average" by pretty much everyone, his stats ought to stand on thier own merit.
This game is a "must win" for both teams. This is the second week in that sense for Iowa. Wisconsin is 3-3 overall and 0-3 in the Big Ten. If they want any respect at all in the conference, they've got to beat someone other than a "preseason cupcake". Not only that, but thier bowl hopes are in jeapardy. After Iowa they have Illinois and Michigan State; two teams that will test Wisconsin yet again. They get Indiana, then have to face a Minnisota team that's all fired up. Finishing the season against Cal Poly may be thier saving grace if they can't get a couple of key wins. 6-6 won't be enough to get them in if they don't beat someone of substance along the way.
Iowa has Illinois and Penn State after Wisconsin. Given Iowa's stingy defense, I wouldn't put a win against the Illini above them, but Penn State is a bit too much to ask. They get a winnable one against Purdue, but they have to finish against Minnisota and that one's always a tough game every time they face each other. Iowa needs to show they can win the games they "should" win if they want any hope of getting a bowl invite. They're not in any position to take anything for granted.
If Iowa protects the football and its running backs stay involved in the offense, this could be another blowout. Thier defense bends, but doesn't break often. If they can force Wisconsin to settle for more fieldgoals than touchdowns, Iowa could make it 0-4 in Big Ten play for Wisconsin. Stanzi's finding his footing as the leader of the Iowa offense and getting more comfortable every snap he takes. This Iowa team might be on the verge of being one of the better teams in the Big Ten.
On the other hand....if they can't protect the football and get decent production out of the running backs....Iowa's hitting the section of their schedule that could really, really hurt....