It's hard to believe we're at the final week already.  It seems like only a week or so ago that I was anxiously watching the "preseason" games, waiting for conference play to start.  As soon as it did, it's all over.  That's the way it goes, though.  Bowl season is just around the corner and I'm getting pretty excited about it.  Whatever happens, there will be some monster match ups and some great games.

Before I get to the picks, I would just like to add that this season is yet another example of why the Big Ten should have a conference championship.  We have three teams vieing for the title of Big Ten championship.  If MSU beats PSU, they will have all beaten each other.  Yeah, we'll know who the champion is when it all clears out, but how many times have we seen scenarios much like this, only two of the teams never faced each other.  How many co-champions?  One extra game at the end of the season could put an end to all of that and crown a single, clear, champion. 

Wow, what a week!!  Yeah, there were some absolute blowouts, but this time, it was exciting.  I expected a lot closer scores for most of the games, but that's what makes things so interesitng.  Not a lot of surprises, but a great week and I'm stoked about the Big Ten bowl picture. 

But enough of that....on to the picks!

Illinois @ Northwestern

Illinois needs this win more than Northwestern does.  Can they do it, though?  Illinois really hasn't looked that great this year.  Juice Williams is still the Juice, but he's all they really have.  Defensively, they're not bad, but defense can only carry you so far when your offense falters.  As the season has gone on, more and more teams have found ways to put a cage on Williams (I couldn't use the old, hokey line about bottling up the juice...it's just bad) and slow down the Illini attack. 

Northwestern is suffering from a slew of injuries that will make them far less effective than they could be.  I question just how much their heart will be in this game, even though it's Senior Day in front of the home crowd.  Time will tell.

What I'd do if I was Illinois'...

OC:  Let someone other than Williams run the ball.  I know how good he is when he's moving his feet.  So does everyone else in the country.  Northwestern's pass defense is 75th in the nation versus your 16th rated pass offense.  Use it to your advantage all day long.  The old Big Ten style was to use the run to set up the pass, but for you this week, use the pass to set up the run.  Undoubtedly, the Wildcats will be keying on Williams, but they'll be looking more to contain him from running.  So use him the way his position traditionally dictates and pick apart the Wildcat defense.  They're very beatable right now.

DC:  Northwestern is missing their top two running backs.  Sutton is possible for a bowl game, but Conteh is done.  Simmons will likely start and he's just not ready to haul the entire load for the Wildcats yet.  With that in mind, drive it into your line that they need to pick on Simmons.  He's got to be shut down.  I'm making the assumption that CJ Bacher will be healed enough to play the entire game this week for NW.  He's got a good grasp on the Wildcat offense, so you've got to key on him.  Get some people into the backfield and rattle his cage.  You've got to win the turnover battle.  Williams has shown that he can be prone to turning the ball over when he's frustrated.  He's not yours to worry about.  So, assume he'll cough it up at least once.  Make the Wildcats cough it up more than once.

Zook:  You've got to get your team's heads on straight.  This is for their last shot at a bowl game.  They've got to want this game badly, and you've got to make them want it.  I get the feeling that some of your players have written off this season and are just going through the motions.  You've got to get that back under control and make your players see that they still have one game left, and that one could lead to one more.

What I'd do if I was Northwestern's...

OC:  I said Illinois needed to use the pass to set up the run and the same is true for you.  Obviously, you're suffering from some key injuries that's hampering your offense.  Bacher looked pretty good when he came back into the game against Michigan.  Hopefully he's good enough to play the whole 60 minutes, because you're going to need him.  Illinois' defense isn't exactly crushing, but their line is decent enough and you're a one-sided offense now.  Turn Bacher loose and move the sticks through the air.  Illinois' rushing defense is their weaker point, but your rushing offense is now yours.  Use a mid-range attack to soften the defense a little, then let Simmons get comfortable sprinting through the line.

DC:  I don't know how many times I have had to say this, but this will probably be the last: stop Juice Wiliams.  Box him in, any way you can and force him to be a pocket passer.  At least keep him behind the line of scrimmage.  For a very good passer, he's not real comfortable when he's trapped behind the line.  He makes mistakes.  So keep him there and hope he makes them.  Your secondary is going to have to step it up, though.  Even though Juice likes to run the ball as much as he does pass, he's a very good passer and he'll pick you apart if you're not careful.  Keep your coverage tight and get some pressure at the line so Williams has to either run or pass quickly. 

What will likely happen (maybe)...

When they're healthy, Northwestern is the better team.  They're the more balanced team.  But they're not healthy.  They're a one-sided team, and even that one side is barely healthy.  This game will come down to two things: who wants it more?  And which Illinois team shows up?  The one that lost to Indiana?  Or the one that beat Minnesota?  Illinois has more riding on this game than Northwestern since the Wildcats have already locked in a bowl game.  I think Illinois steps up and takes this one.

Pick: Illinois 26 - Northwestern 24

Actual: Northwestern 27 - Illinois 10

Evidently Illinois didn't really want to go to a bowl game...  I'll gladly take this missed pick.  Northwestern's big win gives me hope that this team can still win whatever bowl game they end up going to.  Considering how Illinois has played this year, it may be a good thing they're not going bowling.  Gear up for next year Illini.  Shake this season off.  It's not like you really have a choice, now, is it? 

Indiana @ Purdue

I have been pretty hard on the Hoosiers this year.  I like to think I'm a fair person and in fairness, Indiana hasn't done much to give me good things to say.  Also in fairness, however, the Hoosiers did hold Penn State to just ten points in the first half of their game last week.  Even though the Nittany Lions came out flat, they're still an excellent team.  Holding them down was no small feat.  However, they didn't do so well in the second half of that game.  They'll need to play the whole game this week to possibly get out of the cellar of the Big Ten.

Purdue isn't quite as bad as they look.  They do put up points.  They have played decent defense.  They just haven't been able to do them both at the same time, nor consistently.  It's to their benefit that they get to face a very weak Indiana team to end their season.  They need something positive to take them into the offseason, and they need a nice win in front of the home crowd. 

What I'd do if I was Indiana's...

OC:  You get one of the weakest defenses in the conference this week.  This is a good opportunity to do the things you weren't able to do all year.  Just be careful.  They kept things a lot closer than expected against OSU and PSU and very nearly beat Iowa last week.  You've got to attack and try to put them down quickly.  Purdue's rush defense is their weakest link, so attack it.  Thigpen is inconsistent, but can be very explosive.  Give him the ball and make him produce.  I would like to see 20+ touches.  Consistency doesn't come in just 8 short bursts.  Let him carry the offense.  Also, forget about Kellen Lewis.  I like the kid, but he's doing nothing this year.  If Thigpen can get something generating on the ground, Purdue will have to bring their defense in tighter to slow him down.  Then Chappell can really go to work.  Once you start rolling over the Purdue defense, don't let up.  Your D will have troubles of their own, so expect a shootout.  Pull out some of those plays that you've saved for special occasions.  This is as special as it'll get for you this year.

DC:  Purdue has a couple of threats they can throw at you.  If Painter is healthy, he'll have plenty of options at his disposal to go at you.  Orton and Tardy are his favorite targets, but Smith isn't far behind.  He's very good at spreading the wealth.  Sheets is also there to burn you on the ground.  What to do, what to do?  You're going to have to go back to the tape and see what you were doing against Penn State last week in the first half.  Mainly, you're going to have to get solid play out of your line.  They've got to stay in their lanes so Sheets doesn't have open range.  You're going to have to send a linebacker or two on blitzes now and again to try and put pressure on Painter.  They're going to put up some points on you unless you can put together a coverage package that'll slow down the pass game.  The Zone will be your best friend, if you play it well.  Keep you people on their assignments and try to eliminate the deep ball.  Force Purdue to get their yards a few at a time. 

What I'd do if I was Purdue's...

OC:  Did you see what Shonn Greene did to you?  Kory Sheets is no Shonn Greene...but he's a pretty darn good RB in his own right.  This is a good week to pad his stats.  Let him start your offense rolling.  Then Painter should have little trouble finding people open to throw to.  Indiana's D is ranked worse than 90th in every facet, so have a ball.  Just be sure to protect it while you're having it.

DC:  Hmmm...where's the threat here?  Thigpen could be a decent back, but his yardage is pretty darn low.  If Lewis is even in the lineup, it won't be at QB, and he's just not effective as a runner.  That leaves Chappell and his minions.  By all means, don't forget about Thigpen.  He can burn you, if you're not careful, but Chappell is the man you're going to have to beat to beat Indiana.  Get in his face.  Make him throw on the run.  You yourself said that Chris Carlino was the best freshman LB in the country right now.  Turn him on and turn him loose.  Let him run amok on Thigpen and Chappell.

What will likely happen...

Purdue's offense has more tools in the drawer than Indiana's and both defenses are bad.  Purdue will crawl out of the cellar and leave Indiana with the honor of being the worst team in the Big Ten this year.

Pick: Purdue 34 - Indiana 20

Actual: Purdue 62 - Indiana 10

WHAT????  Wow!  Well, now.  I guess there was no question there who wanted it more...and who could do something about it!  Indiana is officially the basement dwellers of the Big Ten.  i'm thoroughly impressed that Purdue got such a huge win.  Way to send Tiller out in style.  I never would have imagined this score in a million years.  Too bad there wasn't a bowl game hinging on a blowout like this....

Cal Poly @ Wisconsin

Of all the intrigue this week brings, this game may have the most.  Who is Cal Poly?  How good are they?  Their record is great (8-1).  Their stats are great (see my First Look).  BUT...they play the equivalent of high school teams during the season.  As PSPKNINE so aptly put it, this is a team that has nothing to lose.  Even if they lose the game, they gain exposure and irreplaceable experience.  This should be a rout by Wisconsin, but Cal Poly is a big unknown.  If Wisconsin comes out thinking this is a cake walk, they could be very surprised.  What a statement it would make for the Mustangs to upset the mighty Badgers of the Big Ten!

What I'd do if I was Cal Poly's...

OC:  This is tough to do since I know so little about you, but here's what I think:  you've got to pull out all the stops this week.  This is your one big shot to showcase everything you have in the vault against a big school with lots of people watching.  It works in your favor that your passing game is your strongest suit and Wisconsin's pass defense is their weakest.  Evidently Dally doesn't make many mistakes (20 TD's to 1 INT) and Barden has over 1000 yards receiving with 15 TD's.  No doubt Wisconsin has noticed this.  So...throw to Tolver and Noble.  No kidding.  Spread the ball around.  We here in the Big Ten value using your TE as a receiver, so get him involved often.  TE's are the hardest to cover anyway because they can be so deceptive at the line.  Use the shorter passes (5-10 yards) to keep the chains moving.  You'll have to throw quickly, though.  Wisconsin's D line is pretty big and physical.  They'll be better than anything you've probably seen all year.  Get rid of the ball before the LB's/Safeties have a chance to read the play and make a move.  Use the run game as a secondary means to keep the defense guessing, but not as a primary tool for scoring.  You want the D to think you can run the ball, but you really can't.  Not against this defense.  Pull all of your trick plays out of the bag and put them to use.  Some will backfire, but you've got to do something to get the defense off of you.

DC:  Unfortunately, I know even less about you than I do the offense.  Hill and Clay make a pretty formidable duo for the Badgers.  I don't know who you have in you LB Corps that can stop them, but that's your main focus.  The Badger pass attack is not very consistent.  Sherer has thrown as many INT's as he has TD's, so work on slowing down the rush and forcing Sherer to take this game on his shoulders.  Gilreath may give you troubles.  Put someone on him constantly.  Force Wisconsin into making some mistakes, preferrably of the turnover variety, and you may be able to keep your team in this thing.  Momentum can be a killer, so get it on your side.

Head Coach:  This is a once-in-a-lifetime kind of day.  No matter what your school does in your own division, your players will always remember the day they played the Badgers.  This could be the greatest day of their football lives.  Seize the day.  Get them fired up and make them believe they can win this game.

What I'd do if I was Wisconsin's...

OC:  I hope you have game tape of this team, because I sure as shootin' don't.  The main thing is to keep your players focused.  Don't let them relax just because Cal Poly isn't even in the same division you are.  Don't take them lightly.  Run PJ Hill early and often to pound on their defense.  Wear them out.  Then let Sherer do his thing.  He should, hopefully, have plenty of time to make good decisions and find open targets. 

DC:  Put pressure on Dally.  He's been nearly flawless this year, but he's probably not faced the likes of you.  Get your down linemen fired up to chow on some Mustang meat, but if they can't seem to find their way to the QB, send an extra man or two now and again.  Let's see how effective and efficient Mr. Dally is when he's got some big boys in his face all day long.  Keep a close eye on Barden.  He is, by far, their most prolific weapon.  Keep him under wraps and you'll force the Mustangs to play a much less effective (or comfortable) game.  As I said about the OC...don't take this team lightly and make sure your guys keep their focus.  You've salvaged a disastrous season thus far, don't blow it all now by going down to the Mustangs.

What will likely happen...

I really want to say this will be a mindless blowout, but I'm not so sure.  This is a poor man's trap game.  Common sense dictates that Wisconsin should have a layup on their hands.  There's just that little nagging voice that says to me that Cal Poly is a lot tougher than most would think.  Still, Wisconsin is looking good and they know they need this one to lock in a bowl game.  It could be much closer than expected, but the Badgers have far too many weapons on both sides of the ball to let this one slip away from them.

Pick: Wisconsin 28 - Cal Poly 20

Actual: Wisconsin 36 - Cal Poly 35  OT

Oh my....missed PAT's is the story of this one.  I knew it was going to be a close game....okay, I didn't know it was going to be close...but I suspected it would be.  Cal Poly is a very good team and we often don't give nearly enough credit to lower conferences and definitely not to Div 1AA teams.  Some of them can play with most schools anywhere.  I think this is one of those teams.  Cal Poly missed a PAT in the 2nd Qtr...again in the 4th...and again in OT.  If they'd made either of the first two, it never would have made it to OT  Had they made the last one, it would have gone to double OT.  Basically...they handed the game to Wisconsin.  Still, give props to the Badgers for holding down a very talented QB and playing all the way through.  Great win.  It's just unfortunate that they'll get ripped for not winning this one bigger. 

Michigan @ Ohio State

I don't have to say that this game just isn't what it was supposed to be, so I won't.  Oops, I guess I already did.  Oh well.  It isn't.  Michigan can't seem to put together a really good game for anything and Ohio State needs this to have any shot at the Rose Bowl.

What I'd do if I was Michigan's...

Update: It appears Threet is out and Sheridan is in.  That makes things even tougher for the Wolverines and better for the Buckeyes.  I won't change the score on my pick, but it should make Michigan's score even lower...

OC:  Who's your RB?  Who's your QB?  You need to have that all ironed out.  Ohio State has a crushing defense.  Brown looked pretty good last week.  I would definitely keep him in the lineup.  If there's a weakness to be found on the Buckeye defense (and there really isn't), then it's their ability to stop the run.  You've got three decent RB's at your disposal, rotate them.  It will keep the Buckeyes from getting a good feel for your rush attack.  Threet will need to spread the wealth and keep his passes short.  I honestly don't think your line will be able to keep OSU out for very long, so use short drops and quick passes.  It seems I've said that a lot lately, but it's the best way to attack a defense that's better than your offense.  It doesn't give them time to get their defenders in position to make a play.  At this point in your season, you'll have to use every possible advantage you can get.

DC:  You're going to have to slow down Wells.  He's slippery, sneaky and tough to bring down.  You're going to have to work all week on making solid tackles.  By now you shouldn't have to, but you do.  Pryor is pretty electic and Robiskie is his favorite target when he throws.  Get a scheme together that makes it difficult for Robiskie to get open and force Pryor to pick someone else.  Keep your linemen mobile.  Pryor can run and he'll defnitely do it, so your line will have to get off their blocks and be able to move down the line quickly.  Speed will be your friend, if you don't get buried under a pile of Buckeyes.  Attack from every angle and keep your safeties' heads in the game.  They'll be the difference in the pass defense.

What I'd do if I was Ohio State's...

OC:  It's hard to believe that your pass attack is rated 107th, but according to foxsports, that's the case.  It's all good, though.  Part of the reason that stat is so low is because Pryor runs the ball as much as he throws it.  Michigan's pass defense is weak and you have a very strong run game to fall back on, in case the pass game never unfolds for you.  Wells is just 43 yards shy of the 1000 mark.  He should have that in the first quarter.  Let him carry the offense and the pass game will come around.  Michigan's defense is plain old bad.  You should be able to tee off on them this week.  Expect them to be fired up for this game, though.  Use every weapon in your arsenal this week.  You really want to embarrass the Wolverines.

DC:  Your pass offense is only slightly less existant than Michigan's.  Theirs is rated 106th and its not because their QB rushes all the time.  Go after Threet with everything you have.  He rushes more because he has to rather than by design.  Keep your secondary active.  They need to be aggressive in their coverage.  Don't give Threet a target he can hit with any consistency.  He's got 9 TD's and 7 INT's.  Force him to make snap decisions, then make him pay for it.  Keep him on his back and he'll end up handing the ball over to you.  Attack with extreme prejudice.  You want to make a statement this game.

With Threet out, you're facing a young, inexperienced QB playing in the biggest game of his career.  Ratlle his cage and see how well he handles the pressure.

What will likely happen...

I want so badly to say that Michigan will pull it together this week and make this a great game.  I want to...but I won't.  Michigan isn't good this year and Ohio State is.  Rivalry or not, Michigan just isn't up to making this a contest.  OSU walks away with this one.

Pick: Ohio State 38 - Michigan 16

Actual: Ohio State 42 - Michigan 7

So much for the rivalry, eh?  I'm sure it'll pick back up in a year or three, but just as so many people have said...Michigan just wasn't up to this game.  Ohio State made a big statement and should get a BCS at-large spot with this win. 

Michigan State @ Penn State

In anyone else's book, this would be the game of the week.  This is for all the Big Ten marbles.  Both of these teams are in the hunt for the Rose Bowl and neither of them can afford to worry about what's going on in Columbus.  Both teams have solid defense.  Both teams have an effective offense.  Both teams need this win.  This should be the best game of the week.

What I'd do if I was Michigan State's...

OC:  You have to take a few cues from the one team that managed to defeat Penn State this year.  Shonn Greene put up 117 yards against the Lions and opened up a little bit of a passing game.  I'm not sold that Javon Ringer is as good as Greene...he just gets more carries.  But, if he's not the best running back in the country, then he's the second best and that's good enough for what you need.  Give Ringer his 30+ carries and wear out the Lion defense.  He'll get stopped plenty of times, but eventually he'll start getting the production you need from him.  He's a 4th quarter back anyway.  In the meantime, Hoyer's going to have to be very busy.  The short passes will be key this week again.  Keep working the corners and occasionallly you'll find your TE over the middle.  Don't try to get it all in one shot.  Just move the chains and chew up the clock.  Then let Ringer take you home. 

DC:  Royster has largely been overlooked at RB, but the man has an impressive 6.5 yrd/carry average and 1123 yards.  You're going to have to slow him down.  Don't count on Clark throwing the pick ball, either, because he doesn't do it often.  Slow down the tempo.  PSU likes to move the ball quickly and efficiently, but if you can force them to play your tempo, you will start to see how to get at them.  Whether you focus on Royster or Clark, you have to slow down at least one aspect of the PSU attack and make them one dimensional.  It's your only hope, so pick one and go after them aggressively.  For my money, I'd rather see you shut down the run.  Passing is risky business no matter how good you are. 

What I'd do if I was Penn State's...

OC:  Here's your first play from scrimmage:  play action pass to Butler with Williams as your second read.  Why?  Put MSU on their heals right off the bat.  Then you can come back with Royster and punch them in the teeth.  MSU's pass defense isn't bad, but they'll respect Royster.  Make them second guess themselves early on and Royster will run them over while they're trying to figure things out.  Truthfully, Royster will be your key all day long, but you can't just hand him the ball every down, nor would you want to with Clark in the game.  Use both in tandem, but let Clark start the action with his arm.  A nice mid-range pass can do wonders for putting the defense off on the wrong foot.

DC:  Javon Ringer is the key to the Spartan offense and they'll use him often, so shut him down.  Yes, Hoyer is a talented QB and you can't ignore him, but take away the run game and MSU will find the sledding very difficult.  You've got no problems with your pass defense, so stopping the run is top priority.  Just keep your heads in the game.  This one's for the Roses.  You win and all the other talk is gone. 

What will likely happen:

Both of these teams are talented and down the stretch this could turn into a great game.  In the end, PSU's defense is just too stout.  MSU takes too long to get Ringer rolling in this one.  They'll be fighting from behind and will run out of time on the clock.

Pick: Penn State 24 - Michigan State 17

Actual: Penn State 49 - Michigan State 18

All talk of the Rose Bowl is over...unless, of course, the Nittany Lions get a better bowl.  I don't know that there is such a thing as a "better" bowl, but you know what I mean.  Either way, PSU wanted this win badly and it shows.  It also goes right along with what's happened all year...get a week off...lose.  Ringer was held to under 50 yards rushing.  That makes a huge difference when you can take away a teams primary weapon.  That was a statement game too.  I feel sorry for whoever draws PSU for the Roses.  What a way to end the regular season!

My Game of the Week:

Iowa @ Minnesota

This one could end up a lot better than it should be.  Iowa's locked for a bowl, as is Minnesota, but Iowa's coming off two straight wins, including that big one over Penn State.  They were sloppy against Purdue last week and barely escaped with the win.  The weather was brutal last week, though, and they'll be playing in the dome this week.  However...Iowa's road record is attrocious.

What I'd do if I was Iowa's...

OC:  Shonn Greene had a career day last week.  This week could be just as good.  Minnesota's rush defense isn't great.  Give Greene another 30 carries and see how many yards he can amass.  Ricki Stanzi is green too...green behind the ears.  He's grown up a lot this year, but he's still making stupid mistakes.  He'll learn.  Use Greene (Shonn, that is) to tenderize the Gopher defense, then get Stanzi, DJK, and Brodell rolling downfield.  Myers will be the straw that breaks the camel's back.  Minnesota isn't good enough to keep their eyes on that many people.  Your play at the line will be crucial to all of this, so make sure they're healthy, strong and focused.  Most of all....protect the football!  The Gophers forced Wisconsin into five fumbles.  You're not good at recovering from those kinds of mistakes, so just don't make them.

DC:  Key on Weber.  The Gopher rush attack is mediocre and you should be able to handle it.  Aside from Weber, himself, that is.  You've got to disrupt the passing game, though.  Light a fire under Mitch King.  Get him into the backfield disrupting the rythm.  As always, if/when the Gophers get down near the goal, lock down.  You can't count on Minnesota making the same mistake Purdue did, twice in the same drive.  When they score, it'll stick, so don't let them get that far.  Your secondary has to be on their game.  Decker could give you trouble, so make sure your guys stick to their assignments.  You play zone more often than man, so assignments are key.  Get after Weber!!

What I'd do if I was Minnesota's...

OC:  Once again, take what Iowa gives you.  Weber is a solid QB, so use him to his full potential.  He won't find a lot of yards on the ground as a rushing QB, but he can rack up mad yards in the air throwing the short passes.  Just keep moving the chains a little at a time.  Both Penn State and Purdue were able to put together drives of 15+ plays.  That kind of production will wear any defense down.  Iowa still has the 11th ranked defense in terms of scoring, but they're not impenatrable.  When you get to the short field, pound the ground a couple of times with Eskridge, then drop a quick pass with Weber again.  You can find success, it'll just take a lot of patience.

DC:  Everyone in the Big Ten knows that Shonn Greene = Iowa's offense.  Shut him down and you force Ricki Stanzi to carry the offense.  The problem is...no one has been able to shut Greene down.  Not even Penn State could.  That's okay, you have another option at your disposal: turnovers.  Iowa usually runs Greene about 20-25 times/ game.  Only recently has he seen more carries.  That still leaves plenty of time to get at Stanzi.  He's fumble prone.  Make him give you the ball back, especially on Iowa's side of the field.  Try to beat Iowa at their own game.  Force them to play a short field and don't give them time to set up anything better.  Hit them hard.  Your tackles have to count.  Greene doesn't fumble much, but other people have shown they're not immune. 

What will likely happen...

Iowa is terrible on the road, but Minnesota barely feels like a road trip.  Nearly as many Iowa fans show up as Gopher fans do.  Minnesota won't find much help in the way of home field advantage.  Shonn Greene will finish his season with a perfect sweep of 100+ yard games.  The question will be: can Minnesota force Iowa to turn the ball over enough to keep them in it?  They may, but in the end Iowa will put out a solid drive that will put the Gophers behind with no time left to recover. 

Pick: Iowa 23 - Minnesota 21

Actual: Iowa 55 - Minnesota 0

WOW!  The last half of this game was pretty boring, but holy smokes, what a can that was opened today!  Shonn Greene had his 12th consecutive 100+ yard game and took the honor of being the single season rushing leader at Iowa.  The Hawks looked better than they've looked in any game all year.  Minnesota put up a great fight...for about a quarter.  It was a physical game with a lot of hard hits, but Iowa started walking away early and never looked back.  Even their second string was putting a hurt down.  If that doesn't make the statement that they deserve a good bowl game, nothing will.

I missed one this week, but overall a pretty decent week.  There were a lot of games that weren't even close, but good games played all around.  I can't wait to see how the bowl picture finally plays out.  I'll try to stay on top of it and update as information becomes available. 

Don't go away, I'll keep posting right up through the bowl games.  I'm planning an in-depth look at every team in the Big Ten leading up to and through the bowl season. 

Okay folks...there they are.  It's sad that this is the end of the season, but I'm excited about the games going on this week.  Good luck to all and Happy Bowl Hunting!!!

If you haven't already, be sure to check out the other Big Ten bloggers:

SEABASS

PSPKNINE

These guys are the best!

It's rivalry week across the country.  I never quite understood why this was rivalry week.  Aren't there some other pretty good rivalries that go on throughout the year?  How about Michigan/Michigan State?  Iowa/Iowa State (granted ISU isn't in the Big Ten, but it's still and in-state rivalry)?  Does Wisconsin have no rivalry?  They're not playing anyone in the conference this week, and I dare say that Cal Poly is not a real rival of the Badgers. 

Anyway, you didn't come to First Look to read me question the validity of Rivalry Week.  You came to hear about the games (or I hope you did, anyway)!  Before I get into them, I'll repost the conference standings so you can see what's on the line for the teams in the Big Ten this week.  As it now sits we have 6 teams locked for a bowl game, one that should lock this week and one more that can become eligible.  Here's the layout:

PENN STATE (10-1) overall (6-1) Big Ten:  Fast track to Rose Bowl.  Win and they're in.  Locked for a Bowl.

OHIO STATE (9-2) overall (6-1) Big Ten: in hunt for Rose Bowl if MSU beats PSU next week and OSU beats Michigan.  Locked for a Bowl.

MICHIGAN STATE (9-2) overall (6-1) Big Ten: in hunt for Rose Bowl if Mich beats OSU next week and they beat PSU.  Locked for a Bowl.

NORTHWESTERN (8-3) overall (4-3) Big Ten: Locked for a Bowl.

IOWA (7-4) overall (4-3) Big Ten: Locked for a Bowl.

MINNESOTA (7-4) overal (3-4) Big Ten: Locked for a Bowl.

ILLINOIS (5-6) overall (3-4) Big Ten: Bowl possible, but unlikely.

WISCONSIN (6-5) overall (3-5) Big Ten: Bowl probable.

MICHIGAN (3-8) overall (2-5) Big Ten: As the Soup Nazi would say: No Bowl for You!

PURDUE (3-8) overall (1-6) Big Ten: No Bowl for You!

INDIANA (3-8) overall (1-6) Big Ten: No Bowl for You!

That's where they stand now...so on to this week's games!

Indiana @ Purdue

There's something nearly as important on the line for both of these teams as a bowl: trying to stay off the bottom of the Big Ten ladder.  The winner can claim a minor moral victory, while the loser's only claim to fame will be that no one throws away a season better than they do!

Indiana held close to Penn State for half a game last weekend.  then typical Hoosier football happened and they got smoked.  This week they'll face an offense that can be effective when they're not busy shooting themselves in the foot.  The Hoosiers also get to face a defense that has been walked all over the entire season.  If they can put together some kind of defense this week, Indiana has a chance to tie the Mighty Michigan Wolverines...for second to worst in the conference.

Purdue, meanwhile, played Iowa fairly tough at Kinnick Stadium.  Despite getting completely run over by Shonn Greene (literally a couple of times), the Boilermakers found a way to hang in.  A couple of stupid penatlies negated a TD, not once, but twice in the second quarter.  Had they kept their heads about them, they might have made that game a whole lot tougher for the Hawkeyes.  Even so, they were one play away from victory.  If they can take positives from that close loss, they can easily find a way to knock off a very weak Indiana team.  Just a week ago I read a story, or blog, or something that said that Purdue's defense was solid while their offense has struggled.  I don't know, but when I see a defense that has allowed 281 points to be put up against them, while scoring 234, I'm not seeing a strong defense.  I'm also not seeing a terribly weak offense.  It's an inconsistenr offense, but not a terrible one. 

This game will actually be a defensive battle, but not the kind we're used to seeing.  It'll be a battle to see which defense will be able to make the critical stop when it matters.  It'll look more like an offensive shootout...but defense will be the key.

Illinois @ Northwestern

Illinois is coming off a tough loss at the hands of Ohio State and still find themselves one game shy of being bowl eligible.  I'm sure this isn't how the Zookster foresaw this season panning out.  That's what happens when you put all your eggs in one basket though.  Juice Williams is their first, last, and only real line of attack.  For teams with a solid defense, they've only to stop Williams to stall the Illini offense.  Sometimes that's easier said than done, but it's been done six times this season and if they're not careful, it could be seven.  This is a must-win for the Illini.  The chances of getting a bowl berth even after a win here are slim to none, but the chance of getting one without a win is zero.  Ending their season with a win over a 9 win Wildcat team might be enough to convince a bowl somewhere to invite the Illini to warmer weather.  Most of all, Williams and the Illini clan are fighting for a little pride.  They definitely don't want to go home with a losing record in, what was supposed to be, a big year.

Northwestern is badly injured.  Their rush attack is missing both Sutton and Conteh.  QB Kafka is likely out for the finale, though Bacher is back.  Bacher is the better QB, in my opinion, but Kafka's ability to run the ball helps offset the missing RB's.  NW is likely to be a one-dimensional football team on the offensive side of the board.  That won't be a good thing considering Illinois' pass defense isn't that shabby.  Still, this is a team that has earned 9 wins.  For Northwestern, that alone is a feat few saw coming.  They didn't get to this point by pure, dumb luck.  Their offense may be wounded, but it's not dead.  Their defense isn't exactly spectacular, but it may be sufficient, if it can figure out how to slow down Juice Williams.  Perhaps the biggest hinderence to a Wildcat win is the fact that they're locked for a decent bowl game.  They don't really need this win.  They can't win the conference.  They definitely can't play for the national title.  There's just nothing left to really fight for, except pride.

Wisconsin hosts Cal Poly

I actually like this game.  It's not that it's destined to be a real barn burner.  I just like that Wisconsin has an OoC game to end their season.  Don't ask me why.  Ok...since you already did...I guess it's that Wisconsin has battled through everything under the sun this year to become bowl eligible, and now they get to roll out of town against a Cal Poly team that they should beat.  I know it's not sexy or overly exciting, but I look at this game and feel a welcome sense of relief.  The Big Ten season is over for the Badgers.  They've done all they can do, now they get someone different to concentrate on.  This one should lock them into a bowl and make the seventh Big Ten team seeing action in December or January.  As long as...

Wisconsin can't take Cal Poly too lightly.  Cal Poly is 8-1.  They have a QB (J. Dally) who's thrown 20 TD's to only 1 INT.  They have three ball carriers who have combined for 25 more TD's.  Yes, all of these nice stats (or most, anyway) have come against competition that doesn't even remotely rival Big Ten play, but it does denote an offensive prowess that Wisconsin should take very seriously.  Really??  Yes, really.  Rule #1: Never underestimate your opponent.  If Wisconsin walks into this game thinking it's a slam dunk, they could find themselves in a tight spot.  Without this win, they don't go to a bowl.  Their great win over Minnesota will completely voided if they lose to a school the size of Cal Poly...especially since it's on their own home turf...in weather that should have the Mustangs frozen solid to their bench.

Michigan @ Ohio State

For one brief, shining moment, two weeks ago, Michigan began to look like the Michigan of old.  They mopped up the field with an unsuspecting Minnesota team....in the Metrodome.  Then, everything went south again when they lost to a wounded Wildcat team.  As if to rub salt in an open wound, that loss was the eighth for the Wolverines, the most they've ever had in a single season.  Michigan gets to follow up that stellar performance by visiting the Buckeyes at the Horse Shoe...with a Rose Bowl berth on the line for Ohio State.  Can anyone say "not the right time for this game"?  Normally, this would be a five star, must-see game.  Now it just looks like a chance for the Buckeyes to turn up the heat on Penn State and run up the stats for some of their all-stars.  Michigan has got to have lost all heart.  Can they pull it together for one game?  This is their golden opportunity to play spoiler to the Buckeyes Rose Bowl hopes.  What better way to salvage a disastrous season than by knocking your arch rival out of the only big game they have left?  It's also a chance to put up a fourth win and try to have something positive to carry them into next season.  They have to find some way to stop the bleeding.

For Ohio State, this game has obviously lost all the lustre, but not the importance.  They need Michigan State to knock off Penn State before they can get to Pasadena, but they also have to get past the Wolverines.  Look past this game and you could get burned.  Michigan isn't good this year.  Far from it.  But they did show spunk against the Golden Gophers.  They have the tools hidden somewhere up their sleeves to make this a close game.  The question is: can they find them?  The Buckeyes know exactly where all their tools are located: on the field.  Wells should slice through the Michigan D like a katana through whipped cream, and Pryor should light them up like a Christmas display.  They just need to stay focused for one more game, then wait to see what fate delivers to them.

Michigan State @ Penn State

Michigan State needs this game.  There's no two ways about that.  The Spartans still harbor hopes of seeing the Parade of Roses first hand.  They'll need a little help to get there, but they can't focus on that right now.  Right now they have a very determined Nittany Lion team standing in their way.  Michigan State has had a remarkable season all their own.  After losing a close one to Cal to start the season, the Spartans rolled out six straight wins before getting hammered by Ohio State.  Still, they didn't fall apart, like many teams do, and have ripped off three more wins consecutively.  Javon Ringer has lost the lead in the rushing stats, and that may be reason enough for him to kick it up a notch this week and test Penn State's resolve.  Their defense will have their hands full, but they'll come out fired up and ready to slow down Royster.  Hoyer will have to be on his game, though.  Penn State is killer against the pass.  Michigan is a lock for a great bowl game this year, but that's not enough.  They haven't been this close to a Rose Bowl berth in quite a while.  They're not about to let this opportunity slip by without a fight.

Penn State needs this game just as badly.  If they lose this one, they not only will have lost their spot in the NCG, but will watch the Rose Bowl go to someone else also.  They're the only team of the three competing for a shot at the Roses who has their fate in their own hands.  Win and they're in, it's that simple.  They started a little slow against Indiana last weekend and allowed the Hapless Hoosiers to stay in the game for a full half.  Do that against MSU and they'll find themselves fighting from behind.  They get this one at home, though, and the crowd won't let them lay down on the job.  MSU gives up quite a few yards on the ground and through the air, but they still find ways to win.  Penn State needs to put this one away early, but it won't be easy.  This one's not just for the Roses; it's for a sense of normalcy.  You can write off one game as a fluke or a bad day in the rain.  Two, however, leaves a nagging doubt.  If Clark and Royster are on their games, they can put this one behind them and head to Pasadena to unload their remaining frustrations on the PAC 10.

My Game of the Week

Iowa @ Minnesota

Iowa pulled out an ugly win over a Purdue team they should have slaughtered.  Some say Iowa's not that good.  Others say Purdue's better than their record indicates.  I say Iowa is potentially the best team in the conference, and Purdue is better than their record indicates.  But then again, I'm biased.  Unashamedly so.  Still, that win wasn't exactly the kind of win I wanted to see Iowa get before heading north to face the Golden Gophers.  Minnesota is on a huge slide, but they're still a decent team and Iowa has not been good on the road.  Six of their seven wins have come at home and three of their four losses were on the road.  The Hawkeyes are pretty much locked into a bowl, but which one exactly is up to them...maybe.  Maybe?  Well, according to Hawkeye Nation, Iowa could get a spot in the Outback Bowl whether they win or lose this one, but a win would nearly lock them in.  If not this one, then the Alamo Bowl is their likely destination.  Both are good bowls and considering they were home for Christmas last year, any bowl is better than last year.  The Hawks do have more than just bowl games to fight for, though.  That nasty little three game losing streak in the middle of the season, coupled with that loss at Illinois has kept Iowa off everyone's radar as a truly good team.  It doesn't matter how close they were, or who ended up ranked and who didn't, or any of that other stuff that we Iowa fans toss about to talk up our team.  They lost and that's the bottom line.  Iowa caught everyone's attention with the win over PSU, but another big win over Minnesota would help solidify that Iowa really can beat someone with a pulse.  Also there's the issue of boosting Shonn Greene's cred with the Heisman people.  I'm royally irked that Kirk Ferentz won't do more to promote the best back in the league, but it is what it is.  Shonn's on his own there, so this is his last chance to prove he really needs to be in the discussion.

Minnesota has watched their dream season fall completely apart.  Not so long ago, I was singing their praises, much like everyone else in the country.  That was before their three game losing streak.  Suddenly, a very good looking Gopher team is looking pretty mediocre.  They'll have their hands full slowing down Greene, but if Minnesota can put pressure on Ricki Stanzi, all bets are off regarding the consistency of Iowa's offense.  Minnesota knows this already and likely will be making plans for it.  This is a pretty big game for Minnesota.  Not only is it a rivalry game that's gone back many years, it's their last chance to impress some bowl people and (most importantly) get some positive momentum going before bowl season starts.  Bottom line: Minnesota needs to find something positive before they go to a bowl.  Bad karma follows you.  Maybe karma's the wrong word to use there, but you get my drift.  Minnesota needs to turn things around and getting a win over Iowa would be a huge boost to their confidence, plus it would give them the sendoff they deserve in the Metrodome for the final time.

Okay folks.  That's it for my first look.  I'll be back tomorrow night to put up my picks for the last time this regular season.  Good luck and Happy bowl hunting!!

It's time to get down to business.  I've laid out what the teams in the Big Ten are facing this week, now it's time to get down to brass tacks and lay my picks on the line.  There are some pretty good games on tap and several teams are hoping for bowls.  Without further ado, here are the picks:

Ok, time for the updates.  The bowl picture is beginning to shape up nicely now.  Wisconsin made themselves bowl eligible and next week should secure one for them (knock on wood Badger fans).  There's still a tight race for the conference championship though, and you gotta love when it comes down to the very last week to crown a champion!  Okay, I'll get on to the scores...

One more thing before I do, though.  This week was really a tale of two halves.  For two of the games, the team leading at half wasn't the one on top at the end.  For another, it was a very close game at half and a blowout when all was said and done.  It's not significant other than to confirm that you have to play all 60 minutes and it showed this week. 

Northwestern @ Michigan

This game suddenly became a lot more interesting, thanks to Michigan's manhandling of Minnesota.  A week ago I would have picked Northwestern without a second thought.  I've had to give this one a little more thought.  Northwestern is hurting, literally and figuratively.  Not so long ago they were undefeated and beginning to think about a possible Big Ten title.  Three losses in five games later and Northwestern's starting to wonder what happened. 

Michigan on the other hand, found something they'd been missing all year: dominance.  They were dominant on offense and they were dominant on defense.  If it had been against Purdue, I'd have thought nothing of it, but it was against a Golden Gopher team that hadn't been truly dominated all season long. 

What I'd do if I was Northwestern's...

OC:  You'd better work the offensive line.  Your version of the spread offense is fine, but it won't go anywhere if you can't control the line.  Michigan's secondary is too fast, so your receivers won't get open immediately.  You have to buy time.  You also are going to need more than a little room for Stephen Simmons to get the running game going.  Michigan's defense isn't nearly as good as Ohio State's, but they're quick enough to plug the holes quickly, so they'd better be some mighty big holes.  Simmons isn't good enough to make things happen with little room.  If the O-Line can't give you the room or time you need, then your quarterback needs to work on his timing with the quick pass.  Slants and outs may have to be your best friend, because they may be the only friend you have.  Word of caution: they're fickle friends.

DC:  Michigan's offensive line won't quite compare to Ohio State's either, but they're decent enough.  Quickness is the name of Michigan's game.  You probably won't be much quicker, so you'll have to be tougher.  Dig in the trenches.  Strategically use the blitz.  Use Nate Williams to get pressure on Threet or Sheridan, whichever gets the call to start.  It would be good for you if it's Sheridan.  He had a good week last week, but can he do it twice?  Keep your secondary mobile.  Michigan will test your speed on the corners.  You might want to think seriously about what zone works best for you and make it work for you.

What I'd do if I was Michigan's...

OC:  Northwestern's defense isn't really their problem.  It's not great, but it's also not been great.  Attack with extreme prejudice.  Your WR's are faster than their D-backs, so drop the bomb on them.  Push your runs to the outside and make them give chase.  I think you've got more speed than they do everywhere you look.  Just make sure your line can hold theirs for a couple of seconds to give your plays time to develop.

DC:  You're the key to the whole game.  Your offense should have decent success, so a win will be determined by how well you handle their offense.  If Kafka starts again for NW, he's very mobile.  He's as apt to tuck and run as he is to hand off or drop back to pass.  Keep your guys in their lanes so he has nowhere to go.  Your secondary should handle their receivers fairly well, so don't be afraid to send your linebackers in occasionally to disrupt the tempo.  Dominate at the line like you did last week and you've got this thing in the bag.

What will likely happen:  I'm not sold on the idea that Michigan's back.  I think last week was a sign of what could be, not what is.  Still, Northwestern is suffering from some injuries of their own and is having really inconsistent play right now.  This game will depend entirely on which Michigan team shows up.  I think we already know which NW team will.  Michigan steals this one.

Pick: Michigan 27 - Northwestern 21

Actual: Northwestern 21 - Michigan 14

This is one of those games I was talking about.  Michigan had a 14-7 lead going into the half and handed it away.  Interesting to note that this is the first time in Michigan history that they've lost 8 games in a single season (that's 129 years), or so says their home page.  I had a nice long thought on RR's thinking going into this year and how it might just pan out for him over the next couple of years, but with that handy record, who knows it he'll be back next year??  Anyway, I really thought Michigan could win this game, especially the way they played last week.  I'll repeat what I said above: you have to play all 60 minutes and evidently they didn't quite do that.  Oh well....I guess that makes next weeks pick a little easier now doesn't it?

Minnesota @ Wisconsin

This is another one I'm almost nervous to pick.  For most of the season, Minnesota has looked pretty impressive.  Last week they looked pretty weak.  So, was that because Michigan is turning things around or because Minnesota is experiencing some kind of meltdown?  They need to figure that out and quickly.  Wisconsin is getting back to being Wisconsin and they're going to play tough football.  What's more, Wisconsin needs this win to get a bowl game.  No matter what they do to Cal Poly next week, without this one, there's no 13th game.

What I'd do if I was Minnesota's...

OC:  Wisconsin's going to try to punch you in the mouth.  That's their style.  So don't be there when the punch comes in.  Adam Weber needs to be quick with his release and constantly moving around the pocket.  The line is just flat-out going to have to be tough.  Wisconsin's D-Line is pretty decent, but Eskridge did a pretty decent job last week, so give him another shot.  Don't send him over tackle much though.  Bounce him around a little.  The sweep seems to have gone out of fashion in the Big Ten, but it still has a place.  Use it sparingly, but use it.  Make those big linemen move down the line, not just forward.  You might be able to wear them out enough to start getting good results as the game wears on.  Eskridge is going to have to be more consistent than your running game has been most of the year though. 

DC:  Hill and Clay lit up Indiana last week and are turning out to be a pretty solid tandem.  Gilreath is a monster who has to be contained.  You've got your work cut out for you.  The good news is, they didn't have that kind of productivity against real defenses and yours is real...or it used to be.  So what is it going to be?  Who are you?  That's what you have to ask yourself this week.  Who are you?  Are you the Golden Gophers that went 7-1 leading into November?  Or are you the Golden Gophers that are 0-2 in November?  Take it to Wisconsin and force them to prove they're for real.  Get physical at the line.  Make your tackles count for something.  Make them feel some pain and see if they're ready for a street fight.  They're not a finesse team and you can't make them into one.  You'll have to just slug it out, so get your guys ready for a brawl.

What I'd do if I was Wisconsin's...

OC:  Look, Minnesota has slipped their way to a bowl game on the backs of inferior competition.  No kidding.  For as good as they've looked all year, they really haven't beaten anybody.  So your job is to find out just how good their defense is.  Your line is solid and healthier than they've been for a while.  Make some holes and let Hill/Clay steamroll them.  Then, while they're trying to stack the box to contain your duo, turn Sherer loose with Gilreath as his primary target.  Just keep hitting them with the ol' one-two and wait for them to fold.  Most importantly, and I can't stress this enough, protect the ball!  No matter how much better your offense may be than their defense, turnovers will kill you.

DC:  Are you hungry for some Gopher meat?  Then go get it.  Minnesota's biggest offensive weapon is injured and likely won't be 100% for your game.  Not that you really need to have anything stacked in your favor, but it never hurts.  Get after Adam Weber.  With Eric Decker out, his options are slightly limited.  He'll find a few guys out there, but you can handle them.  Just keep the big play out of the equation and you'll win the war of attrition.  Punch them in the teeth and just keep punching. 

What will likely happen:  As much as I like the Minnesota story, the truth is, their victories have come against questionable to weak opponents.  A few weeks ago, Wisconsin would have fit into that category.  I don't think that's true anymore.  They're legitimately becoming a powerful team.  Both teams will learn a lot about themselves this week. 

Pick: Wisconsin 24 - Minnesota 20

Actual: Wisconsin 35 - Minnesota 32

I thought it would be close and it was.  Minnesota blew a 21-7 halftime lead to a Wisconsin team that's looking better and better.  I'll still give the Gophers props for hanging 32 points on the Badgers, however...

PJ Hill put up 117 yards and you can't let stuff like that happen if you want to win games.  No, 100+ yards rushing yards doesn't guarantee a win, but it sure doesn't help either.  I. Anderson had 6 catches for 114 yards.  That kind of production tells a big tale.  The run game obviously helped open up a pass game and the Badgers found the balance they needed to put 28 points on the board in the second half.  I'm more impressed with Wisconsin now than I have been at any point in the season.  They're still not the best team in the conference, but they're growing by leaps and bounds, and I pity Cal Poly for what they're liable to do to them next week.

Ohio State @ Illinois

I really hate the term "trap game", but sometimes it applies.  Ohio State has to be a little wary of that this week.  Usually it only applies to undefeated teams looking for a shot at the NCG, but I use it a little more liberally for any team that could be unexpectedly upset.  Illinois is no stranger to defeating the Buckeyes.  They've been in that territory before.  The difference this time is that Illinois isn't playing like the same Illinois that knocked off the Buckeyes before.  Far from it.  Juice Williams is making more mistakes and before he had support that he doesn't have now.  Sound like an easy Buckeye win?  Don't get too far ahead of yourself.  Illinois still has the tools to hurt you when you're not looking.

What I'd do if I was Ohio State's...

OC:  I'm not really sure I even need to say anything here, but I will.  Chris Wells is healthy and showing what he can do when he's healthy.  Pryor is setting the world on fire.  Illinois' defense really isn't that fantastic.  Have a good day!  Just be sure to protect the ball.  I hate to sound like a broken record, but my goodness at the number of games that change pace because of stupid turnovers. 

DC:  Contain Williams.  Period.  Last week he showed that he's perfectly capable of turning the ball over to you.  So, ask him to.  Okay, asking may not quite work.  Beat it out of him.  Don't give him anywhere to run and he'll eventually make a bad decision with his passes.  Your secondary is pretty good, so when he tries to force something that he shouldn't, pick six.  Or pick and let the offense get six.  Either way, it's all good.  Just keep pressure on him and you should be good to go.  He has no other options.  There's no one else on the Illini offense that's a real threat. 

What I'd do if I was Illinois'...

OC:  I just gave you a big key.  Find someone other than Juice Williams to help carry the offense.  You have to.  It's really, really important.  Everyone knows that when they face you they have to key on Juice.  He's getting shut down and it's frustrating him.  As long as he's bottled up with no outlet, he's going to continue to get frustrated and make bad decisions or turn the ball over.  You've got to find a combination somewhere.  Quick passes to the corners can loosen up the defense tremendously.  They don't have to be bombs.  Just get the ball moving downfield and the defense will have to back off a little.  That will open things up for Williams considerably.  It won't be easy against this defense, but you've got to find two or three receivers that can get open quickly and make the catch.  They don't have to go far after that.  Just get the ball in their hands and move the chains.

DC:  Wells is obviously a threat you have to contain.  That won't be easy.  He seems hell bent on proving he's back to 100%.  Your line is going to have to stay in their lanes and not get pushed around.  Also, make sure your tackles are textbook perfect.  He's not easy to bring down and arm tackles won't do it.  You're going to have to get nasty and make sure you get pads on people.  After saying all of that, don't forget about Terrell Pryor.  He'll burn you.  Bring some pressure occasionally.  Your defensive line is pretty decent, so keep them getting off their blocks and occasionally bring a blitz in.  Most importantly, when OSU gets to the red zone, lock down.  It's truly a mental thing more than a physical one.  When you're guys feel the endzone nipping at their heels, they have to flip a switch and just keeping thinking "lock down".  If you can hold the Buckeyes to field goals rather than touchdowns, you have a chance to pull off the upset.  Besides, nothing gets the home crowd fired up like a goal line stand.

What will likely happen:  I've worried fingernails off thinking about this game.  Everything within me says OSU should win this in a walkaway.  Everything, that is, except this nagging little voice in my mind that says OSU's ripe for a picking.  They're at a place in their schedule where they could be thinking they'll cruise out of the season and root for MSU to upset PSU so they can go to the Rose Bowl.  Thinking like that can burn you, and I really think Illinois is going to be fired up for this game. 

Pick: Illinois 23 - Ohio State 20 OT

Actual: Ohio State 30 - Illinois 20

Several people (including seabass, who obviously knows his stuff) said that this year's Illinois was not the same as last year's Illinois and it would make all the difference.  Well, they were obviously right and I was obviously wrong.  Juice Williams just seemed to have the formula that befuddled Ohio State in the past and I had a sneaking suspicion it would work again.  Alas, the Buckeyes had other ideas.  And Illinois had turnovers.  Wells did his job and did it well, as did Pryor, and the Illini defense just couldn't hold them in check.  This win puts OSU one step closer to the Rose Bowl, but their ultimate fate still awaits the outcome of the game at Happy Valley next week.

Indiana @ Penn State

I'm reluctant to really even say anything about this game.  This is, by far, the most cut and dry game of the week.  Indiana hasn't been able to beat anyone in the Big Ten except Northwestern and Penn State has beaten everyone in the Big Ten except Iowa.  I just don't see Indiana suddenly becoming good enough to knock off a team as powerful as the Nittany Lions.

What I'd do if I was Indiana's...

OC:  PSU's defense is going to bring a lot of pressure from their down linemen.  They're pretty darn good.  You're going to have to work the spread-O and work it well.  Three step drop, pass.  As quickly as it took for you to read that is how quickly it's going to have to happen.  PSU's defense hasn't allowed too many people to find success running against them, so you're probably going to have to use the pass to set up the run.  Here's a quick formula:  slant right, out left, TE over the middle, slant left, cross right, TE short right, HB screen.  Keep changing directions and receivers frequently so they have no one to key on.  Keep it very quick and relatively short.  If you find success there, their defense will have to keep their LB's back to help with the pass coverage.  That could open up a lane or two for a running game to slowly develop.  Oh yeah, don't forget that handy stop 'n' go pattern.  Everybody gets burned by that from time to time.  Just don't overdo it.

DC:  PSU has a ton of tools they can use and they like to use every one of them.  The list of people who carry the ball for them in any given game is as long as the passenger list on the Titanic.  Obviously they like to mix things up and they seem to like running the end around.  You're probably not going to get a ton of pressure with the down linemen, but they do have to hold their ground.  You can't afford to have your LB's plugging holes that should be plugged by linemen.  They're going to be busy enough chasing down the multitude of potential ball carriers.  Try not to get into a position where your LB's are having to do a lot of pass coverage.  Keep them moving around the line and get into the backfield.  Don't think of it so much as blitzing as sliding down the line, then picking a hole to get through so you can disrupt the play.  Oh...that's a blitz?  Okay....blitz.  Just make sure you've got someone in position who can stop a run before it gets too far away from you.

What I'd do if I was Penn State's...

OC:  Pull out all the stops.  As I've said before, it's not that Indiana's defense is anything that would scare me, but you have two agendas this week.  1) win.  2) win BIG.  It's an unfortunate part of this game, but if you want to crawl a little higher in the ranks, this has to be completely embarrasing for the Hoosiers.  A close win, and you drop in the polls.  Sorry, but it's true.  Besides, a little extra practice doesn't hurt.  You have MSU coming up and you just might need some of those plays.  Open up the playbook now and treat this as a "must win" practice against a tougher practice squad than the one you normally have.  Well...they might be tougher.  Keep working on balance.  Run, pass, pass, run, mix-and-match, trick plays, you name it.  Go crazy.

DC:  Indiana's offense is a spread type offense, but they just don't have a ton of weapons at their disposal this year.  Beat them at the line and you'll have them befuddled all day.  The same truth holds here.  You need this win big.  Go head-hunting.  If you could hold their running game to under 50 yards, that's impressive.  If you can hold them to under 200 yards of total offense, that's impressive.  Stay hungry and be impressive.

What will likely happen:  This would be a turning point victory for Indiana.  The problem is, they're nowhere near being in position to get a turnaround win, especially against this Nittany Lion team.  This one should be on the highlight reels for total destruction.

Pick: Penn State 52 - Indiana 9

Actual: Penn State 34 - Indiana 7

Well, not much to say here, huh?  Actually, to Indiana's credit, they kept it very close in the first half.  PSU came out a little flat and only managed 10 points to the Hoosiers 7.  I'm sure they were thinking of "pulling an Iowa" and sneaking one past a sleeping Lion team.  When you're Indiana, this year, you're not going to sneak one past a team like Penn State.  The Nittany Lions woke up at halftime and finally got things rolling. 

Michigan State - BYE  Enjoy your week off!  Next week you'll likely know your fate.

I'm sure MSU fans weren't too happy about the OSU/ILL outcome.  Sorry folks, I picked in your favor.  I'm not so sure about this coming week...

My Game of the Week

Purdue @ Iowa

Saturday will be Senior Day for the U of I.  It'll be sad to see some great players suiting up for the final time to play at Kinnick Stadium.  Oh yeah, I'm supposed to talk about the game itself.  Okay, this one shouldn't be much better than the PSU/Indiana game.  Purdue's offense is their strong suit, if there is such a thing for Purdue.  That strong suit is facing Iowa's strong suit...their defense.  Iowa just doesn't let people score a lot of points against them.  They take away the big play and force you to play a slow, grinding game.  That's not Purdue's style.  Purdue's defense is just awful 4/5 of the time.  That doesn't bode well when you're facing a Heisman contending running back that just put 117 yards up against Penn State.  On the other hand, if Iowa gets lazy thinking about their finale against Minnesota, they could get shocked.  I doubt it though.

What I'd do if I was Purdue's...

OC:  For weeks I've been telling people to work the short-mid pass.  They've been listening too.  Did you see Penn State work a drive that was, like, 17 plays and took 9 minutes?  Yeah, it was crazy.  The thing I forgot to tell everyone was that once you get down to the Iowa 20...that doesn't work anymore.  They shut the door on you.  So your job is to figure out what no one else has figured out how to do this year.  You have to drop the long ball on them.  Yes, Illinois did it once, but that was a blown coverage play.  That doesn't happen every down, so you have to figure something else out.  Since Iowa is perfectly fine giving you 7 or 8 yards all the way down the field until you run out of room, you've got to coax them in some other way.  If your receivers are uber quick, you might stand a chance.  Throw the quick strike over top of the defense and let speed work in your favor.  I'm not sure they're quick enough, but if it works once or twice, you'll start to see a change in the way they attack you.  It might open up something else.  It probably won't be the run game though.  Kory Sheets can really try, but he just won't put up big numbers.  Ask Javon Ringer.  It's not that easy.  Get those LB's to drop a little deeper, though, and he might find some success.

DC:  The same thing I've said before holds true.  Get at Ricki Stanzi.  Last week he really grew up a lot.  In the second half of that game, he took control of the offense and led them downfield with a fair amount of consistency against a very tough PSU defense.  Your D is usually pretty weak, but it did have a couple of good games this year.  Go back to the tape and find out what you did there.  If you get pressure on Stanzi, you might be able to make him give you the ball.  Getting him to scramble isn't a good thing though.  He's much more accurate on the run than he is in the pocket.  Work on caging him in.  You can try to cage in Shonn Greene too, but here's a hint: your tacklers better be prepared to take a hit rather than give one.  He's a running back that hits back.  Catch him in the backfield though, and you might be able to get to him before he gets a full head of steam.  That's easier said than done, but it's not impossible. 

What I'd do if I was Iowa's...

OC:  Ken, I'm proud of you.  You've been getting the plays in with plenty of time and you've stopped going straight to the play action plays.  Keep it up.  Obviously you have a mega weapon in Shonn Greene, so use him to set up everything else.  Once he's hit them in the mouth a few times, turn Ricki loose.  DJK has come back around in the offense and now gives Stanzi three big targets he can float between.  Work on using all three.  Purdue's defense isn't solid enough to have to worry about DJK, Andy Brodell and Brandon Myers.  That's just too much for them this year.  So throw everything at them but the kitchen sink.  Throw it too, if you think it'll work.  You won't need it though.  Between those three and Greene, you've got more than enough weapons to pick the Boilermakers apart.

DC:  Keep your secondary in check.  Everyone else has figured out that you'll give them the short stuff and no doubt Purdue knows it too.  The thing is, everyone also knows that they'll need some help when they get to the red zone and Purdue doesn't have the talent for that.  Their best bet is to burn you on the edges and take the ball deep.  It could be a career day for you safeties...or it could be a nightmare.  Be prepared to be tested deep.  I'm not sure they'll have time for that though.  Mitch King is stepping up bigger and bigger every single week.  He's even taken Matt Kroul out of a lot of discussion and that's pretty darned impressive.  Keep him hungry this week and shooting for a chance to improve his sack stats.  Kory Sheets will try to put some yards on you, but I think Edds and Angerer can keep him in check.  If he thinks he's going to run over tackle...yeah, that won't be a good route for him.  He just doesn't have the support up front that he needs against your line -  as long as the line continues to do its job.  Don't let anyone fall asleep on the job this week! 

What will likely happen:  I'm almost scared to make this pick.  It's one of those situations where you think you've got it locked down: a no-brainer.  Then someone falls asleep at the wheel and everything goes south quickly.  Still, I think Iowa will be pumped up to finish the season strong, and Kinnick is a tough place for people to come play.

Pick: Iowa 31 - Purdue 17

Actual: Iowa 22 - Purdue 17

You want to talk about frustrating?  I was back in Iowa, taking my son to ChuckE Cheese for his birthday and I was less than a mile from Kinnick Stadium...listening to the Hawkeye game on satellite radio.  I traveled over 900 miles just to get to Iowa, was less than a mile from the game and still had to hear it on the radio...  It's all good though.  Watching my son's face as he raced from game to game at ChuckE Cheese made it all worth it.  There'll be other football games.  There'll never be another moment quite like that one.

Anyway, what the hell is going on with Trent Mossbrucker?  I know, he's only a freshman, so I won't be too hard on him, but missing two PAT's in a row is hard to swallow.  Those two points could have cost Iowa very dearly as Purdue drove down inside the Iowa 30 with just seconds left on the clock. 

In Purdue's defense, they had two TD's called back on penalties in the first half.  Had they played a little cleaner ball, Iowa could have been embarrased just a week after their biggest win.  The game ultimately came down to who succeeded on the ground and that was Iowa's domain.  Shonn Greene made another Heisman statement putting up 211 yards on 30 carries.  Jewell Hampton had 30 yards on just 3 carries as well, and added a TD.  Purdue's defense just couldn't handle Iowa's rush attack.  With stats like those, however, it never should have been this close.  Iowa played sloppy and ugly, but got the win and ultimately, that's all that matters.  At 7-4, they're virtually locked for a bowl game now, regardless of what happens at Minnesota next week. 

I can testify that it was colder than a well digger's behind in Iowa this last weekend.  The wind was brutal.  I was actually kind of glad I couldn't afford tickets to the game.  Chuck E Cheese was a helluva lot warmer than sitting in the stands at Kinnick would have been.

Okay folks.  That's it from here.  Pick them apart and let me know what you think. 

Well, I went 3-2 this week.  I wasn't completely sold on my own pick for the Illinois/OSU game, but felt pretty comfortable with the Michigan pick.  Once again, the Wolverines burnt me.  Such is life, this late in the Big Ten season. 

Here's a quick look at the conference standings and bowl eligibility:

PENN STATE (10-1) overall (6-1) Big Ten:  Fast track to Rose Bowl.  Bowl locked.

OHIO STATE (9-2) overall (6-1) Big Ten: in hunt for Rose Bowl if MSU beats PSU next week.  Bowl locked.

MICHIGAN STATE (9-2) overall (6-1) Big Ten: in hunt for Rose Bowl if Mich beats OSU next week and they beat PSU.  Bowl locked.

NORTHWESTERN (8-3) overall (4-3) Big Ten: Bowl locked.

IOWA (7-4) overall (4-3) Big Ten: Bowl locked.

MINNESOTA (7-4) overal (3-4) Big Ten: Bowl locked.

ILLINOIS (5-6) overall (3-4) Big Ten: Bowl possible, but unlikely.

WISCONSIN (6-5) overall (3-5) Big Ten: Bowl probable.

MICHIGAN (3-8) overall (2-5) Big Ten: No Bowl.

PURDUE (3-8) overall (1-6) Big Ten: No Bowl.

INDIANA (3-8) overall (1-6) Big Ten: No Bowl.

So far the Big Ten has 6 teams that are virtually a lock to get a bowl game, 1 more that is eligible and will likely secure one and 1 more that can become eligible next week for a total of 8 teams that could be in bowl games this December/January.

I'll be back tomorrow night to put up my First Look for the final week of the Big Ten season.  Then I'll return Tuesday to put up my picks.  When the bowl picture is set, I'll lay them all out and we'll see who the Big Ten gets paired up with in the post season.

If you haven't already, be sure to stop by my buddies' blogs and check out their picks:

SEABASS - the original Big Ten Blogger

PSPKNINE - the temporary Hawk

Good luck and Happy Bowl Hunting!

It's getting down to the wire for bowl games and the Big Ten is fighting for their rightful place.  Unfortunately, their rightful place will be denied because of a system that's critically flawed in virtually every aspect.  That's a whole other Oprah, though, and I'll address that in due time.  Still, there are several Big Ten teams that can still earn a very nice bowl game and help improve the Big Ten image.  Without further ado, let's take a quick look at the teams/games happening in week 12.

Northwestern @ Michigan

Northwestern enjoyed a brief BCS ranking, then had to face Ohio State.  Bye-bye BCS ranking.  This week could have been a great opportunity to re-enter the fray of ranked teams, but all of a sudden Michigan decided to show up to play some football.  This is almost a no-win situation for the Wildcats.  If they win this game, it gains no real attention from anyone because Michigan is 3-7, out of bowl contention, and off of anyone's radar as a competitive team.  If they lose, it's a huge hit to their credibility for the very same reasons.  Nevermind that Michigan just clobbered a Minnesota team that has looked very impressive all year long.  The Wildcats need to approach this game as though they're playing the Michigan of old, because they may well be.  They'll need to have strong play at the lines to afford their offense an opportunity to score some points.  Most importantly, they have to be able to provide steady pressure on both sides of the ball until Michigan starts making mistakes.  At 7-3, Northwestern is already locked into a bowl game.  The only question now is which one?  That'll depend on which Wildcat team can show up over the next two weeks: the one that started the season so strongly or the one that's lost 3 of their last 5, including Indiana.

Michigan is just looking for a little r-e-s-p-e-c-t.  Their big win over Minnesota turned some heads, at least among members of the Big Ten.  They're out of bowl contention completely, so there's nothing left to worry about except building momentum for 2009 and saving RichRod's job.  They have the talent to be a real force against any opponent, but they've just shot themselves in the foot over and over.  It's taken most of the season and they had to sell off one of the longest continuous bowl streaks in all of college football, but they may just be putting the pieces back together.  The game this week is a momentum builder.  Northwestern is suffering injuries and struggling to hold together what was a great season.  It's a good time for Michigan to meet up with them.  A win here can help propel them into their showdown with the Buckeyes next week.

Minnesota @ Wisconsin

Minnesota was duped last weekend.  They thought they were getting a Michigan team that was in shambles.  Instead they got blindsided by a team that dominated both sides of the ball from beginning to end.   The Golden Gophers have already solidified a spot in the post season, but getting to January 1st will be tricky.  Up this week is a resurging Wisconsin team that's starting to look more like it did before their five game meltdown, followed by Iowa that has, at times, looked as good as anyone in the Big Ten.  They'll need to at least split the games to make a case for a New Year's Day bowl game.  For their sake, I hope they learned a little something from last weeks game.  They need to watch tape to see where they can improve and for goodness sakes, don't take either of these two teams lightly.  Wisconsin has beaten Illinois, fought hard against Michigan State and plastered Indiana.  They're dangerous.  And Iowa has played everyone tough all year and finally learned how to win the close game last week against top five powerhouse Penn State.  If the Gophers get back to basics and play hard football, they can get a win, but they've got to put the gloves on tight, because this will be a prize fight to the finish.

Wisconsin is finding their stride.  Losing to MSU hurt a little bit simply because it was so close.  I don't care what the coaches or players say, a one point loss sticks in your craw for a while and nags at you.  "If only we'd" is a phrase that keeps running through your mind and the possibilities of what that extra win might mean eats at you.  They did a great job of rebounding in style against Indiana.  Obviously it was a game Wisconsin could win, but they won it convincingly and that indicates that they took the right attitude going into the game.  The Badgers are 5-5, which means they're certainly within range of getting a bowl game.  Just one win makes them eligible, but they'll need two wins to make it happen.  They have to get past Minnesota and they have the tools to get it done.  Their lines are strong, they have an effective running game and are looking better and better on defense.  If they take it to Minnesota, they can certainly win.  That'll make them bowl eligible going into their game against Cal Poly.  Basically, this is the last chance for Wisconsin to make a case that they belong in a bowl game.  Lose this one and it won't matter how badly they beat up on Cal Poly, it won't get them their 13th game.

This game will come down to who wants it more.

Ohio State @ Illinois

Any chance of the Buckeyes going to the NCG went out the window when they lost a heartbreaker to Penn State.  So they thought they were playing for a trip to Pasadena.  Then Penn State lost to Iowa.  Now, where will the Buckeyes land?  Basically, Pasadena is still a possiblity, but they need to be big Spartan fans for that to pan out.  If MSU beats PSU, the Buckeyes will be conference champions by virtue of smoking the Spartans a month ago.  If not, PSU goes to the Rose Bowl and OSU has to hope for an at-large bid into the BCS.  All of that is null and void if OSU can't get past Illinois and records aside, that's not going to be an easy task.  Illinois is still a strong team, just one that seems to shoot themselves in the foot.  Illinois is particularly tough at home.  Buckeye fans have certainly not forgotten that it was Juice Williams and Co. that knocked them off only a season or two ago. 

Illinois is in much the same position Iowa was in a week ago.  They haven't beaten anyone of note all year, unless you consider Michigan a team of note and they definitely weren't.  They've lost to Missouri, Penn State, Minnesota,  Wisconsin and Western Michigan while beating Eastern Illinois, Louisiana-Lafayette, Michigan, Indiana and snuck past Iowa.  They're .500 on the year, but haven't proven that they are deserving of a bowl game.  This is their big chance to prove something to their fans, themselves and the rest of college football.  OSU may not have the respect they deserve on the national scale, but they're still the same powerful Buckeyes that have terrorized the Big Ten for basically ever.  A win against them would make the Illini bowl eligible and make a very strong case that they deserve a post season. 

Indiana @ Penn State

Indiana is a big disappointment this year.  Last season, an emotional Hoosier team punched, kicked and scratched their way to a bowl game.  They had high hopes of building on that this year and maybe throwing their hat into a slightly bigger arena.  Unfortunately, they've moved backward instead of forward.  They're out of the bowl picture with two games still to go and the only win they have in the Big Ten was a shocker over Northwestern.  They were hoping for an 8 or 9 win season, but they've likely won all the games they're going to this year.  This week they travel to a Penn State team that will desperately want and need to make a big statement after a heartbreaking loss that knocked them out of the National Title hunt.  Indiana is going to have to take the brunt of a very angry Nittany Lion.

Everyone in the nation has heard about Penn State slipping against Iowa.  I won't beat that down here.  It's only unfortunate that it happened this late in the season and that Iowa doesn't get the credit they deserve which is then passed onto the Lions.  This week they need to do what everyone thought they should do last week: win in style.  Anything less than an enormously embarrasing, kick-you-while-you're-down victory will only work against PSU.  Especially because, standing in the wings is a Spartan team that knows they still have a chance to go to Pasadena in January.  They'll be watching very closely to see how PSU handles the emotional letdown this week and trying to pick out any weakness that they might be able to exploit next week.  Penn State needs to just put all bowl talk aside for now and concentrate on the task at hand: destroying a very weak Hoosier team in front of their home crowd.  In my opinion, they're still one of the best teams in the nation.  This week is a good chance to remind themselves that they are and let the rest fall into place.

My Game of the Week

Purdue @ Iowa

Purdue shouldn't be this bad.  They have an offense that can put points on the board.  But their defense is laughable at best.  Actually, Purdue did put up two respectable performances against Ohio State and Penn State, but the rest of the season they just laid down and got steamrolled by lesser teams.  If they can find that same defensive spark against Iowa that they had against the Buckeyes and Lions, they could pull of a win this week in Kinnick Stadium and make Iowa re-evaluate their program yet again.  They're going to find the going tough, though, as they're facing a defense that rivals anyone in the nation. 

Iowa can't get too high on themselves.  I'll be the first to say that I think Iowa should be a top 25 team and could give anyone a run for their money.  But the Hawkeyes can't forget that they're not a top 25 team, they're 6-4 and they lost to Illinois - a team that probably won't see a bowl game this year.  The win last week was a classic and should give this program the credibility they've been desperately seeking all year long.  Unfortunately, most of the nation is just looking at it as a slap in PSU's face rather than giving Iowa their due.  My advice would be to get angry.  Be angry that not enough people recognize your offensive prowess.  Get angry that, despite having one of the best defenses in college football, no one thinks you're a team worth getting too worked up about.  Get angry that losing three straight games by a total of 9 points to three teams that are, were, and still could be, ranked in the top 25, isn't enough to make that PSU victory look natural.  Get angry...then take it out on Purdue.  But be careful.  This could be a "trap game" of sorts for you too.  Purdue may have no defense of note, but they did hold OSU/PSU to respectably low numbers and their offense has lit up quite a few defenses this year.  Don't overlook them.  Get angry, play the kind of ball you know how to play and show the country that the Iowa Hawkeyes are really a 9-1 team stuck in a 6-4 package.

Also...

Michigan State - BYE

It's the time of year for teams to suddenly become big fans of other teams.  Michigan State is in the unenviable position to be one of those teams now.  After playing ten straight weeks, the Spartans finally get a chance to catch their breath, evaluate their casualties and watch the bowl picture unfold in front of them.  They are only partially in control of their destiny, but their hopes of a trip to the Rose Bowl aren't dashed just yet.  If either Illinois or Michigan can score an upset over Ohio State, then the Spartans jump past them in the Big Ten pecking order.  It's unlikely that Indiana will take Penn State out of the picture, but the Spartans get the honor of that opportunity themselves in two weeks.  So, for this week, the boys in green and white need to donn thier orange and blue.  If Ohio State wins out, it doesn't matter what the Spartans do against the Nittany Lions, they won't be going to Pasadena, so the Illini are their only hope.  If Illinois can't get it done, then State needs to become new fans of their in-state rivals for the final week of the season.  Those are the only two scenarios that will find MSU in California to ring in the New Year. 

That shouldn't distract the Spartans from the big issue, however.  All the scenario talk in the world will be moot if they can't beat Penn State in Happy Valley next week.  They'd better take this week for what it's worth: a chance to rest, put together a killer game plan and psych themselves up for a real fight.  It wouldn't hurt to get a set of Illini pom-poms though. 

 

That's my first look at the teams in the Big Ten for this week.  I know it was less about the games than about the bowl picture, but at this point, I think everyone knows what the teams are capable of.  I'm planning on having my picks up tomorrow, so check back in. 

In the meantime I know PSPKNINE has his picks up and I'm sure SEABASS will too shortly.

Good luck and Happy Bowl Hunting!

P.S.     As the bowl picture becomes more official, I'll post the matchups and treat those games the same way I do Big Ten games with a First Look and Picks with updates.  I'll likely throw in a few non-Big Ten bowls too, just for kicks, so stay tuned!

I'm getting a jump start on my picks this week.  I usually wait until a little later, but it's not getting any better, so I'll go ahead and lay them out. 

Everything points to this week being pretty cut and dry, but it's crunch time for several teams fighting for bowl eligibility.  I see a couple of potential upsets waiting out there...

I had a fairly average week, which beats the bejeezus out of what I did last week.  Looking at PSPKNINE'S and SEABASS' picks, we all were pretty equal this week.  Onto the updates!  By the way....I'm getting into the spirit a little late.  The Iowa fans had a "Greene Out" to show support for Shonn Greene's Heisman chase.  Thought I'd choose green as my update color to join in and show my support as well.  If it's hard to read, I apologize, just let me know and I'll make sure to use a different color next time.

Illinois @ Western Michigan

It's another MAC attack on the Big Ten, but will Illinois break the string of Big Ten failure?  Most likely, yes.  Western Michigan is a solid MAC team, but a solid MAC team should have trouble with a poor Big Ten team, and Illinois isn't poor. 

What I'd do if I was Illinois'...

OC: throw every play in the book at them.  It's not that their defense is anything I'd be particularly afraid of, but when else will you get to pull out that double-reverse-flea-flicker-half-back- pass?  May as well use it now, just for kicks...  Seriously, though, stick with the girl that brung ya.  As Juice goes, so goes the team, right Zook? 

DC:  Give your line a huge pat on the back.  Iowa's O-Line was supposed to be pretty tough and you blew them apart.  Do the same this week and this game is a walk away.

What I'd do if I was Western Michigan's....

OC:  Quick pass.  Don't give the Illini defensive line enough time to get at your QB.  Your running backs probably aren't going to have a ton of success, at least not in big chunks, so use the quick slants and quick outs to pull their linebackers away from the line a little.  Remember...it's all about moving the chains.

DC:  It shouldn't be a big mystery.  Key on Williams.  Blitz if that's what you need to do, but get at him.  For God's sake, though, don't blitz the cornerback from two miles out like Iowa tried to do.  Juice is much too fast.  Bring the LB"s.  Stack the box and get at him.

What will likely happen:  Western Michigan will make a good show of it, at least for the first half.  Then Illinois will dominate on both sides of the ball and walk away with this one.

Illinois 33 - Western Michigan 17

Actual: Western Michigan 23 - Illinois 17

I came very close to picking Western Michigan in this game, but opted for the Big Ten team instead.  Hawk fans well remember that Western Michigan burned them twice at the end of the season.  Last season, they kept Iowa from a 13th game.  Remembering that, I dearly wanted to pick them to win.  But Illinois isn't Iowa and I thought Williams would confuse the Bronco D sufficiently to get the win.  That didn't happen and suddenly things look very bleak for the Fighting Illini.  Coming into the season they were hoping to return to the Rose Bowl and maybe even make a case for something bigger.  Now they're 5-5 (3-3 Big Ten) and will need to win out just to secure a bowl game.  With Ohio State on tap next and a trip to meet Northwestern in their final game, Illinois will be lucky to finish the season with a .500 record. 

Wisconsin @ Indiana

Wisconsin is definitely coming around.  They should have won against MSU, but sometimes it takes baby steps to get where you're going.  Indiana is a great opportunity for Wisconsin to make a statement.  That statement would be "we're baaaaaaaack"

What I would do if I was Wisconsin's...

OC:  Pound the ball down their throat.  You're Wisconsin, for crying out loud, not Northwestern.  You don't need the spread offense, at least not yet.  Play good old fashioned Badger Ball.  Beat them into submission, then do a little passing tap dance on their face.  You know you like that kind of football anyway, so why fight it? 

DC:  Get at the QB, whoever that may end up being this week.  Indiana's O-Line shouldn't provide too much trouble for you, but just in case, have a couple of blitz packages ready.  Just watch your secondary.  Oh yeah...and put some duct tape on Bielema's mouth.  That unsportsmanlike penalty was just stupid.  A good coach knows how far to push the argument and when to walk away, having probably had his argument fall on deaf ears in the first place.

What I'd do if I was Indiana's...

OC:  Your instructions are the same as Western Michigan's.  Work the short pass.  Wisconsin is going to get pressure on your QB, so don't give them time to get too far.  Your RB is going to get a workout, too.  Work the perimeter.  You won't get anywhere up the middle so try the sweep and keep that screen pass open.  If time allows, go for the deep ball.  The Badger secondary got picked apart last week, so give them a try.  Unfortunately, you won't have time.

DC:  Your pass rush was better against CMU, thanks to blitzes.  Keep running on those tracks.  Your D-Line won't be able to get much pressure on Sherer by themselves.  He's proven to be fumble prone if you can get to him, so throw the kitchen sink at him.  It may be your only real hope.

What will happen: Wisconsin's O-Line is healthy and strong.  Their defense is as good as anyone's.  Indiana is in big trouble.

Wisconsin: 31 - Indiana 10

Actual: Wisconsin 55 - Indiana 20

That's a pretty good thumping, but I'm not surprised.  As I said in my pick, Wisconsin appears to be quickly getting back on track.  At 5-5, the Badgers are not where they expected to be at this point in the season, but they have a solid shot at making a bowl game and after 5 straight losses mid-season, that's saying something.  They have to get past Minnesota before they get Cal Poly to end the season, but I wouldn't put it past the Red and White to make that happen.  Indiana is officially out of the bowl hunt altogether.  I want to feel sorry for the team that gutted out a 13th game last year, but someone has to be the whipping post for Big Ten teams needing to get back on track and I'm glad it's not Iowa!

Michigan @ Minnesota

Geez, what a mismatch this game should be.  Michigan stinks.  Minnesota doesn't.  Need I say more?

What I'd do if I was Michigan's...

OC:  forfeit.

DC:  forfeit.

What I'd do if I was Minnesota's...

OC:  Do everything you've done all season, only make it look ten times better.

DC:  ditto...

What will likely happen:  Minnesota had a letdown last week, but they'll be fired up this week.  Michigan can try all they like, but they're no match for Minnesota this year.  It'll be a bloodbath.

Minnesota: 42 - Michigan 20

Actual: Michigan 29 - Minnesota 6

I don't even know what to think about this.  Minnesota: what happened?  I'll tell you what's about to happen if you don't figure it out.  Your Cinderella season will crash and burn.  Given how consistently poor Michigan has played all year and how well Minnesota has played all year, I wouldn't have picked this outcome if a Wolverine fan had paid me to.  But just when you think you're getting a feel for things, Michigan peeks their head in the door and decides to play a game.  Now the question is: can we expect this kind of play out of Michigan from here on out or was this a one-and-done anomoly?  The Wolverines have Northwestern and Ohio State to close out their season, so they'd better hope this game was a sign of things to come.  As for Minnesota, at 7-3, they're pretty well locked into a bowl game.  The question is: what kind of bowl game?  They have two weeks to figure it out, but have to travel to resurgent Wisconsin and then host an Iowa team that will present the toughest defense they'll meet all season.  It won't be easy to get anything better than a mid-to-lower level bowl.

Purdue @ Michigan State

This one could actually be interesting.  It shouldn't be...but it could.  Purdue's offense tends to put up big numbers against everyone but OSU and PSU.  On the other hand, their defense couldn't stop a feather blowing in the wind.  The final score will depend on MSU's ability to slow down the Boilermakers.  Do they let it turn into a shootout or do they turn this into a one-sided smackdown?

What I'd do if I was Purdue's....

OC:  Wisconsin had success running against the Spartans.  Your O-Line doesn't quite stack up to Wisconsin's, but it might be enough, particularly if Siller gets the start.  If he does, you have a whole new set of weapons at your disposal, so use them just as you did against Michigan.  State would much rather clobber a fairly stationary Painter than chase after a mobile Siller.  Whether Painter's healthy or not, I'd let him "rest" another week.

DC:  You've got your work cut out for you.  Key on Ringer and you open the door for Hoyer.  Watch Hoyer too long and Ringer will run right by you.  Hang on tight and do the best you can.  Key on Ringer, slow him down and hope your secondary can do enough to keep you in the game.  Then pray your offense can do the rest.

What I'd do if I was Michigan State's...

OC:  You know what to do.  Purdue's defense is in a constant state of confusion.  Just keep mixing things up between Hoyer and Ringer and you should find your way to the endzone often.

DC:  Your game plan could be altered from what you first expected.  If Siller starts this game, imagine you're playing Illinois.  Stop the QB and you stop the offense.  If Painter starts, you have a less mobile target to go after.  Block him into the pocket and play pinball with his still-attached helmet.

What will likely happen:  Here's the conundrum:  Purdue puts up points.  Michigan State puts up points.  It seems so clear that Michigan State's defense would be more than sufficient to provide the difference.  However, Purdue could turn this into a real shootout and surprise some people in the end.  What's more, MSU could be looking well ahead of this game, thinking it's in the bag.  That could be very, very bad.  I'm going to go waaaaay out on a limb here and pick the upset.

Purdue 33- Michigan State 30

Actual: Michigan State 21 - Purdue 7

I suppose I should apologize to MSU fans for picking against them in this game.  In my defense, I felt an upset somewhere and this looked like the kind of game MSU could blow off.  From what I've read and heard (I didn't get to see this game either), it was a turnover fest.  That's not the kind of thing MSU needs, but turnovers aside, MSU got it done.  Now they have a week off to think about Penn State.  With only 1 loss in the conference, the Spartans are still in the hunt for a share of the conference title.  It's November and anything can happen.

Ohio State @ Northwestern

This should probably be the game of the week, but I'm an Iowa fan, so that's not going to happen.  Northwestern's offense is explosive and their defense is....okay.  However, their defense did come up big against Minnesota in the end.  Still, we're not talking about Minnesota's offense, we're talking about Ohio State's.  They have a different approach and more overall talent.  It wasn't easy against Minnesota, it'll be much tougher against the Buckeyes.

What I'd do if I was Ohio State's....

OC:  Run Wells.  Your defense is capable of slowing down Northwestern's offense, so wear down their defense.  Yeah, you have plenty of other tools at your disposal and you can use them at will, but center your offensive attack around the run early.  You're coming off a bye week, so everyone should be well rested.  Run, run run.  Then, when the Wildcats are gasping for air, pick them apart at will.

DC:  Expect Kafka to start again.  Bacher is mostly healthy, but I can't fathom that NW will start him after the performance Kafka put in last week.  He's very mobile and has a cannon for an arm, so you'll have your work cut out to reel him in.  Turn Little Animal loose on him and keep him in check with blitzes and heavy rush.  The NW ground game isn't really all that, but don't ignore it completely.  It'll all depend on which QB gets the call.  Shut down Kafka and expect Bacher to come back in.  Either way, you have to get someone into the backfield to disrupt things. 

What I'd do if I was Northwestern's....

OC:  Give all due respect to Bacher, but keep him ready on the bench.  Kafka is your new man.  He's more mobile and basically gives you an extra running back who knows how to throw the ball.  You won't be able to get the rushing numbers you got against Minnesota, but you can still move the ball well.  Especially if the Buckeyes don't know who exactly will be carrying the ball.  Work the option.  I hate the option, but work the option.  While you have LB's scrambling after the running QB, he can unload on an unsuspecting secondary.

DC:  The key to this game will be how well you can handle the OSU attack.  Key on the running game and try with all your might to make OSU a one-sided team.  If that fails, blitz for all you're worth.  You have to get results at the line.  Point, blank and period. 

What will likely happen:  Northwestern could make this really exciting.  I'm even a little tempted to pick an upset here, but I just can't.  The Buckeyes are too balanced for NW.  The Wildcats may have found the missing piece to their offensive puzzle, their defense is still lacking too much, while the Buckeye defense is stout.  Balance will overcome explosiveness.

Ohio State 38 - Northwestern 28

Actual: Ohio State 45 - Northwestern 10

Well, I was just a weee bit off picking the score.  It's not really surprising though.  I don't think OSU took that loss to PSU very well.  I also think they're taking the public thrashing a little personally.   NW was outclassed every step of the way. 

My Game of the Week

Penn State @ Iowa

There is a very simple explanation for Iowa's collapse against Illinois: the play of the O-Line.  Anyone who knows line play knows that cohesiveness is absolutely crucial for success.  Iowa was missing a key link in their chain with Seth Olsen out of the lineup.  Olsen is supposedly back this week, which means the O-Line could be back in form.  Not to make excuses, but one man can affect the performance of everyone around them.  With Olsen back, the line should perform better than it's dismal showing against the Illini.  That can change the entire outlook of the game.  With Iowa's defense as stout as it's ever been, PSU will have to work to get into the end zone and Mitch King is seriously ticked off at losing last week.  He's not a man you want ticked off.  Iowa will be playing with a fire in their bellies this week.  But...

Penn State has everything to lose.  They were looked over in favor of Texas Tech in the BCS standings and the only way to ensure that they get a shot at the National Championship is to win out and remain undefeated on the season.  They know that Iowa can be dangerous to them, so they won't be taking this game lightly.  What's more, they're coming off a bye week, so they'll be fully rested, as healed as they're going to be and will have had plenty of time to evaluate every aspect of Iowa's game.  They have the tools and the motivation to mop the field in Black and Gold.

What I'd do if I was Penn State's....

OC:  I said it last week and I'll say it again: take what Iowa gives you.  The mid-range attack is Iowa's Achilles Heel.  How many times last week did we see Illinois connect for a 7 yard pass to either move the sticks or put them into great position to move the sticks?  They gave you the road map, so use it.  Your offensive line will have to be on top of their game, though.  Mitch King and Matt Kroul will push them around and find their way into the backfield.  I don't care who you are, these guys can't be stopped outright.  Quick drops and short passes are the key.  Your running game will find moderate success, but not near the goal line.  Your best bet is to use both the pass and the run in perfect balance.  Keep guys like AJ Edds and Pat Angerer guessing, but be careful...both are pretty good at picking off passes and breaking up plays.

DC:  Illinois also showed you the road map here.  Get at Ricki Stanzi.  He's a very good quarterback...in training.  With plenty of time, he's golden.  On a short run, he's even more golden.  But when he's better served stepping up in the pocket and making the play, he gets frustrated and does something stupid.  What's more, he has a tendency to play only half the field, so just keep an eye on the direction his helmet is facing.  He rarely looks the other way, so you can probably play on just half a field.  Shonn Greene has rushed for 9 straight 100 yard games and may well make it 10 against you, but if you shut down Stanzi, it really won't matter much what Greene does.  Rattle the young man under center and you'll make Iowa a one-dimensional team again. 

What I'd do if I was Iowa's....

OC:  Ken O'Keefe, you've got to get the play calls in to your QB quickly.  That nonsense of waiting until there's 5 seconds on the play clock doesn't work against anyone and you just end up burning important timeouts.  Okay, enough about that.  As for a game plan, run the ball.  You've got a great backup in Jewel Hampton, so (for this game) use both Greene and Hampton.  Use the run early to guage the performance of the O-Line and setup the play action fake.  Don't jump to it immediately.  Of course, part of this will depend on the defense's ability to slow down PSU's attack, but if they're keeping it close, don't panic.  Stick to your game plan.  Think: Greene 200 yards, Hampton 100.  It won't happen, but if you have that as a frame of reference, maybe you'll give the run game a shot.  Then take what you give.  Work the short pass, especially to the TE.  Most of all...protect the ball!!!

DC:  Norm, you know you don't have to worry about your line.  King and Kroul are on a mission and they're ticked off.  Let them do their thing.  Work on the secondary.  Edds and Angerer are going to have to be very mobile this week and keep them moving to the ball.  Your CB's and safeties are going to have know their assignments and keep to them.  That blown coverage TD against Illinois was embarrasing.  Hound your guys all week long to stick to their assignments until they're seeing you in their dreams shouting at them to stick to their assignments!  If King/Kroul and Co. are getting into the backfield and your guys are where they're supposed to be, the long ball will be eliminated and you can play the kind of defense you've played all year.  Most importantly...no one scores in our house.  That's got to be your motto this week.  PSU will more than test your resolve on this issue.  Lastly, bring it to them.  Show them you're not afraid of them and attack like you mean it.

What will likely happen: There are big questions as to the strength of the Iowa O-Line after last week.  The play of that line may make all the difference in this game.  If they're back on, this could be a real thriller.  If they're off, forget about it.  I'm betting they're on.  This will be a defensive throw down, backyard brawl.  Iowa won't be intimidated by the spread offense and PSU won't be afraid of Shonn Greene.  In the end, it'll come down to which offense can make the final strike.  I know everyone will think I'm insane, but I'm going with the upset.

Iowa 23 - Penn State 21

Actual: Iowa 24 - Penn State 23

I have to give Kirk Ferentz a little credit for chosing Daniel Murray to kick the final field goal instead of Mossbrucker.  Murray is the better kicker in my opinion and this was the biggest game of the year for the Hawkeyes.  That aside, this was a GREAT game (and not just because my Hawks won).  Truth be told, the Lions dominated this game in every aspect for three quarters with one very big exception: the score.  PSU held the ball for an astounding 23 minutes (and change) in the first half, leaving Iowa less than 7 to try and do something.  Ricki Stanzi couldn't even get his arms thawed out in that short amount of time.  JoePa's crew methodically moved the ball a few yards at a time, consistently getting 3rd and short situations that they converted easily.  However, Iowa's defense, always of the "bend but don't break" attitude, did just that, forcing the Lions into two field goals and only one touchdown. 

I have to mention this because it's been on my mind since watching the game.  Everyone (including the ESPN announcers) wondered why on earth Iowa allowed so much time to run off the clock at the end of the first half when they had all three timeouts at their disposal.  Did anyone else notice the looks on the players faces as they made two consecutive first downs and moved the ball steadily down the field?  It was an "aha" moment for the Hawkeyes and especially Ricki Stanzi.  For the first time all game, that offense realized that they could move the ball against Penn State through the air with consistency.  Up until then it was a game of inches for the Hawks, and even the inches were scarce.  Suddenly, the O-Line realized they could give Stanzi enough time to throw and the receivers realized they could find places to get open.  Everything changed after that.

The second half was a different ballgame altogether.  Iowa's offense found a leader in young Stanzi and the pass game came into effect.  That opened the door for Shonn Greene to get his tenth straight 100 yard game and kept Iowa in a game that could have gotten ugly quickly.  It also allowed the defense an opportunity to catch their breath and get a second wind.  Most importantly, it got the crowd back in the game, which fired up the whole Iowa team.

For Penn State's part, they played their game and played it well.  Yes, they had a few penalties, but give credit where credit is due.  They had a couple of holding penalties, which you can't blame when Mitch King started blowing past their line and getting into the backfield.  They had to do something and hoped they wouldn't get caught.  Everyone does that.  They did have a very costly pass interference call, but again, the safety was going for the ball and just misjudged his timing.  That could happen to anyone and the game was in the balance.  Better to get the penalty than give up the six points.  They controlled the ball on offense and made Shonn Greene get his yards the hard way: a couple at a time. 

In the end, this game came down to a pass floated in the wind and a team that refused to lose another close game.  This game had stout defenses flexing their muscles, potent offenses pulling out the stops and a ton of heart all laid on the line in a one point thriller.  I'd vote it for an instant classic, but then again, I'm partial.

Alright folks, there they are.  Pick them apart; do your worst.  I'll be around throughout the week to defend myself as best I can. 

Well, I was 3-3 on the week.  That's not great, but considering no one predicted Michigan to beat Minnesota, or Western Michigan to beat Illinois, I don't feel too bad about it.  Thanks to everyone for checking out my picks and leaving some great comments.  I'll be back tomorrow for a first look at week 12 and should have my picks up by Tuesday.  Good luck to all this coming week. 

If you haven't already, be sure to check out these other Big Ten sites.  They've picked a couple different than I have, and they're definitely a good read.

SEABASS2003

PSPKNINE

Happy Bowl Hunting!