Continuing on with the schedules of the teams in the Big Ten....

Michigan

Yesterday, I wrote about Indiana; today I get to try and cover Michigan.  I've thought about this one a lot, and have to say; this is one tough team to guess about. 

Rich Rodriquez will finally get some of his recruits to work with.  The question is: how many of them will be ready and how big of an impact will they be able to make?  It's far too early (for me anyway) to know just what those answers will be.  What Michigan needs to help these players grow with the system is a good schedule.  I think they've got the perfect one lined up:

The Schedule

September 5 - vs Western Michigan - I like this match, though I would rather see it swapped with week 2 for a couple of reasons.  First, the Broncos are a pretty decent team.  They're not Top 25 good, but they're not bad.  I'd like to see Michigan start their new RichRod program with someone just a little lighter.  On the other hand, WMU should provide a decent enough talent to give the Wolverines a bit of a challenge.  Second, Michigan has had some trouble with their opening day opponents the last couple of years.  Revert now back to reason number one. 

September 12 - vs Notre Dame - Last I heard, Charlie Weiss was going to do the play calling at ND.  The last time he did that, they went 3-9.  That bodes well for Michigan.  I personally think the Irish will be a little rusty and confused.  This one-time must-see match has fallen to the level of take-it-or-leave-it, but that's pretty good for Michigan.  Right now they don't need a lot of top 25 teams on their schedule.

September 19 - vs Eastern Michigan - The Eagles went 3-9 last year (2-6 MAC West).  Even if they're much improved over last season, they're not up to beating the Wolverines.  This is another good chance to tweak the system before starting conference play.

September 26 - vs Indiana - Four straight home games to open the season??  How'd they pull that off?  It's a good thing, in that they get four straight in front of a friendly crowd.  It's bad because their young players need the road experience before they have to go on the road in conference play.  As for this game against Indiana, it's Indiana and it's at home.  Indiana may well be improved over last season, but I still think this is a great home win for Michigan and a great start to conference play.

October 3 - @ Michigan State - This is a tough opponent to face on the road for the first time all season.  Sparty really rubbed it in Michigan's face that they won last year.  Unfortunately, I don't think Michigan will be able to get revenge this year.  I don't mind this game being here in the schedule, but I don't like that this is the first time the Wolverines are venturing out of Ann Arbor, even if it is just a few miles down the road.

October 10 - @ Iowa - Another tough road trip.  Iowa may not be Ohio State (or even Penn State for that matter), but they're not bad, folks, and they're especially tough at home.  After five light home games and a tough road trip to their in-state rival, they now have to go to Kinnick and try to knock off a team that has something to prove this year.  I would have rather seen these two dates spread out a little.  Particularly because these games are the toughest two road trips on a mostly home schedule.

October 17 - vs Delaware State - Who???  I can hardly even find any information on this team!  Their own home page consists of stories from 2005-2006.  What are the Michigan Wolverines doing messing around with a team like this?  And why now?  Well, I guess it does offer a nice layup in front of their home crowd after what's sure to be a disappointing two weeks on the road.

October 24 - vs Penn State - Wake up time.  Michigan may get this one at home, but it won't make a difference.  Rodriguez won't have his team ready for this one.  Not this year. 

October 31 - @ Illinois - I'm not sure what to make of this one yet.  If Illinois v2009 is like Illinois v2008, I would like to think that the improved Michigan team could get their first road win here.  Unfortunately, I don't think it will be.  This game could be a matchup of the most improved teams in the Big Ten....or it could just be a blunder-fest.  I think Illinois wins this one, just because it's at Illinois.

November 7 - vs Purdue - Purdue football is a mess right now.  I know they have "Hope", and that's great, but this is a first year program.  Rodriguez will have had more time to get his improvements in place than Hope will have.  It's in the Big House.  It's Michigan's win.

November 14 - @ Wisconsin - yet another question of "which team is this".  What will Wisconsin look like in '09?  They've got some work to do this year too.  They'll be coming off games against Purdue and Indiana, so they should be in as good of shape as they're going to be.  I like this game here on the schedule.  It's a good place to finish their road journeys for the year.  Figure in that, if everything goes as I think they might, Michigan could be playing for bowl eligibility here.  This could be an exciting game.

November 21 - vs Ohio State - The luster has diminished somewhat from this traditional rivalry.  Ohio State has just been too good.  There's no other place this game could possibly go on the schedule, though.  It's a given.  It's also a given (this year) that OSU will walk out of Ann Arbor with a win, rivalry or not.

Ok....so what?

Normally, this schedule would be incredibly weak for Michigan.  Given the circumstances, though, I think it's about perfect.  No one really expects the Wolverines to be in the running for a National Championship berth, so strength-of-schedule isn't much of an issue.  They're just trying to get some wins, build some confidence and work their players into the new system. 

The first four games are all at home.  Western Michigan could be a challenge.  So, too, could be Notre Dame.  For that reason, I'll split the two.  I think the Wolverines will win one, but not both.  They'll have no problem with Eastern Michigan and will get a win over Indiana.  So, they'll be 3-1 (1-0 Big Ten) when they face Michigan State. 

I don't think the Wolverines can get past the Spartans this year.  For that matter, I don't think they can get past Iowa either.  That'll make them 3-3 (1-2) when they face Delaware State.  Who???  Yeah....anyway.... 

I don't see Michigan beating Penn State.  Illinois is a possibility, but I'm not sure Michigan will get them on the road.  The Wolverines should be able to handle Purdue at home and I think they'll get past Wisconsin on the road (for their only road win and the game that will make them bowl eligible). 

That leaves them at 6-5 overall and 3-4 in the Big Ten.  Sorry Wolverine fans, but I don't see your team beating Ohio State in the season finale.

The Wolverines have eight home games and only four road dates.  That should do wonders for them.  I don't like that they have Michigan State and Iowa on back-to-back dates, both on the road.  I know there's nothing they could do about it, but their schedule would have been just a shade better if they could have spread out MSU, Iowa, Illinois and Penn State a little better.  I think their season will feel a little "choppy" as they rack up some wins, then take two losses, rack up another win, then lose two straight, etc.  That kind of thing can play havoc on a young team's confidence. 

Way too early final predition

Michigan will end the season at 6-6 overall and 3-5 in the Big Ten.  They won't be in the cellar of the conference standings this year.  Purdue and Indiana will be below them.  At 6-6 they'll be bowl eligible and will likely get an invite based on who they are.  They're the Michigan Wolverines and people will watch them wherever they play.  This still won't be the Michigan team we're used to seeing, but it'll be a marked improvement over last season.

Next up.....Purdue...

I couldn't do it.   I just couldn't do it.  I've tried to wait until at least August to start talking about college football.  But, I can't.  I...just....can't! 

Spring practices are in full swing and I've had the football fever since late-January.  So, since my therapy isn't curing this addiction, I'm going to just embrace it and start looking at the '09 season. 

There are a million questions that need to be answered before we'll have any real idea what might play out in the upcoming season.  Position battles are just now in the opening stages, players have to get into shape, new recruits have to be worked into the system: there's a lot that has to happen before the coins start flipping.  One thing that is known, however, is the schedule.  So, I'm going to start at the bottom of the Big Ten (according to last year's results) and work my way up the ladder, looking at the 2009 schedules and will try to decipher some insight from them.

Without further ado:


Indiana Hoosiers (3-9 overall, 1-7 Big Ten in 2008)

Last year, Indiana was just bad.  There's no better way to put it, in my opinion. Can they right the ship?  There are all kinds of indicators that they might be able to.  Their recruiting class offers hope for the future.  They need a good schedule that will help those players grow and gain confidence to help turn the program around.

The Schedule

September 3 - vs Eastern Kentucky - The Colonels went 8-4 overall, 7-1 in the Ohio Valley Conference.  While they're a pretty decent FCS team, they should be no match for a FBS Big Ten team.  This should be a good home opener for the Hoosiers to get a little scrimmage and gain some experience.

September 12 - vs Western Michigan - The Broncos were 9-4 last year, 6-2 in the MAC West.  Like Eastern Kentucky, they shouldn't be much of a match for a Big Ten team.  Western Michigan won't be a pushover, though.  If Indiana hasn't righted at least a few of their ills from last season, this could be a relatively tough game.  At any rate, it'll be a better test for their youngsters than EKU. 

September 19 - @ Akron - The Zips were only 3-5 in the MAC-East last year.  MAC fans, forgive me, but in my book, a MAC team that only goes 3-5 is little better than an FCS team.  In fairness, they did go 5-7 overall, so maybe they'll give Indiana a test.  All-in-all, I think this is just another shot for the Hoosiers to get a little practice in before the real season starts.

September 26 - @ Michigan - The question we're going to hear over and over until September is: what will this year's Wolverine team look like now that Rich Rod has some of his players joining the team?  I've no doubt Michigan will be good again.  I just don't know if it'll be this year.  The good news is, they might not be that good.  The bad news is, the Hoosiers have to open their Big Ten campaign on the road.  This may well be a test for both teams.  I don't like Indiana's chances either way.

October 3 - Ohio State - If Michigan is good this year, then this is about the worst possible way to open the conference schedule.  It could only be worse if they opened on the road against Penn State.  This could be a close second.  OSU has some positions they need to fill, but I don't think anyone believes that will be a problem for them.  At best, Indiana will be 1-1 in the conference after this game.  Most likely, they'll be 0-2.  This is just a tough way to start the year.

October 10 - @ Virginia - The Cavaliers weren't all that great last year.  They were 3-5 in the ACC, 5-7 overall.  This year, they've overhauled their assistant coaching staff.  New OC Greg Brandon is implementing the Spread-O.  While the Spread-O is still feared and revered, it's not easy to implement without the right players.  They could easily still be disorganized by the time Indiana comes to town.  This could be a good break for a struggling Hoosier team. 

October 17 - Ilinois - Illinois will be better than last year.  I believe that completely.  Still, I don't think they're going to be the Rose Bowl team of two years ago.  That's good for Indiana, but not good enough.  If they come out of Virginia with a win, they'll have a positive overall record, but a weak conference record.  Illinois isn't the team to help them get on the positive side.  Williams will likely work over the Hoosier "D" and Indiana will find themselves with a losing conference record when the final whistle blows on this one. 

October 24 - @ Northwestern - I'm not sure what to make of Northwestern yet.  They were oh-so-close to knocking off Mizzou in the Alamo Bowl.  They were 9-4 overall with a 5-3 conference record last year.  But...will this team be that inspired?  Though Indiana had a much worse season last year, I would consider this a winable game for them...if it were played at home.  It's just bad luck that they get this one on the road.  At home, I might give them a fighting chance.

October 31 - @ Iowa - How fitting to play a Halloween game against a team in black?  This Iowa team isn't the Hawkeye team of two years ago.  It's not the same Hawkeye team as last year.  They lose some big playmakers like Shonn Greene, Mitch King and Matt Kroul.  The bad news for Indiana is that the Hawkeyes still have a very stiff defense and a more balanced offense than last year.  What's worse, Iowa traditionally plays better down the stretch (and no, not all teams do).  It'll be a scary trip to Iowa City for the Hoosiers (I know...poor...really poor).

November 7 - Wisconsin - The Badgers started last year as a Top 10 favorite to challenge for the Big Ten title.  Instead, they collapsed miserably.  Wisconsin has a ton of rebuilding to do this year, and may well be in a free fall when they come to Indiana.  This is a good opportunity for the Hoosiers to get a Big Ten win...it may be their first.  This is (potentially) a good rebound game after a tough trip to Iowa City.

November 14 - @ Penn State - Ouch.  The Nittany Lions are a tough team to beat in any venue.  Having to play at Beaver Stadium is just brutal.  Indiana would need a huge turnaround this season to win this one...or PSU would need a catastrophic collapse.

November 21 - Purdue - The season could end worse.  Purdue was an underperforming team last year, going only 2-6 in the Big Ten and 4-8 overall.  Will they be better this year?  They'd almost have to be.  A better question is: how banged up will Indiana be after playing @ Iowa, vs Wisconsin and @ Penn State?  This is Indiana's last hurrah for a season that will be less than spectacular...much less.  I consider this one a toss-up.  Luckily, the Hoosiers get to end it at home.  Perhaps that will be the difference.

Okay...so what?

Keeping the discussion solely about the schedule, rather than what Indiana has done to improve for the season: this is a so-so schedule.  They haven't loaded up on Top 25 opponents, but a team that's trying to rebound from a losing season doesn't really want a ton of stiff competition.  In that sense, Indiana's schedule is decent.  They'll have opportunity to find things to cheer about.

Those things will come largely in the first three games though.  Eastern Kentucky, Western Michigan and Akron will give the Hoosiers a good opportunity to get some wins and work on some things before getting into the meat of the schedule.  Western Michigan will provide some decent competition without getting overwhelmingly tough. 

Michigan is a good team to open the Big Ten schedule against because I don't think they'll be really rolling yet, if they even get to that point this year.  They'll be better than they were last year, by large strides, but not great.  That will give Indiana the opportunity to face a good team on the road and test their own improvements.  It also will set the stage for their conference season.  If they come out of Ann Arbor with a win, then they'll know they have the tools to beat at least two more teams and become bowl eligible.  If they lose, it'll be another long, hard year for the Hoosiers.

Ohio State, @ Iowa and @ Penn State are the toughest games on their schedule and they'll all be brutal.  OSU is OSU, Iowa is tough in Iowa City and PSU is still PSU. 

That leaves Virginia, Illinois, @ Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Purdue to really make their season.  All are technically winable if Indiana improves very much at all over last season.  All of them are also very losable, especially Illinois and @ Northwestern.  Assuming Indiana can win their first three games (which may be a big assumption), they can win three of these five and become bowl eligible.  Beat four of the five and they'll guarantee a 13th game...or beat three of them and Michigan...or....you get the picture. 

The good news is that Indiana doesn't have Michigan State on the schedule this year.  Failing to get Minnesota is a bit of a downer.  I don't know if they could beat the Gophers or not, but I'm sure they'd gladly trade the Ohio State date for one with Minnesota right about now.

Way too early prediction for Indiana's season:

It's really tough to predict what a team like Indiana will do when we don't even know who all the players will be yet.  There are so many more variables as well.  How good will Michigan be?  Can Wisconsin return to what they were supposed to be last year?  How quickly will Virginia pick up on thier new OC's program?  How much better will Illinois be?  What about Purdue?  Those questions will all play into how well the Hoosiers do in '09, among others. 

Given those variables, I'll likely update my opinions later in the summer to reflect what I see coming out of Bloomington over the spring/summer.  With what I have now, here's what I predict for IU in 2009:

Indiana will start their season 3-0 with a close call against Western Michigan.  They'll lose to an improved Michigan team, though they'll look much better themselves in that loss.  Ohio State is a loss, without question, making them 3-2 (0-2 Big Ten) when they travel to Virginia.  The Cavs might be a win at home, but I don't think it will be on the road.  Illinois, @ Northwester and @ Iowa will all be losses as well, though both the Illinois and NW games could be closer than you think.  That will leave the team at 3-6 overall, 0-5 in the Big Ten, when they host Wisconsin.  I'll throw the Hoosiers a bone and (way early) predict an "upset" over Wisconsin.  The game at Penn State is a loss, but I'll give them a closing win over Purdue to finish the season.  So:

Indiana will be: 5-7 overall, 2-6 in the Big Ten.  They'll be fighting with Purdue to stay out of the conference cellar.  

Still Hoosier fans, don't get too down.  The future does look brighter.  In a couple of years, Indiana could be mid-pack in the conference and playing in a bowl game somewhere.

Next up: a look at Michigan's schedule.

This was good therapy, but the itch still won't go away....

The recruiting trail hasn't reached the end yet, but the National Signing Day isn't far off.  Like many other fans, I've been keeping my eye on the future of my team; watching the new talent that will soon be filling the active roster. 

Here's a quick look at who the Hawks have commitments from and who is still on the radar.

To start with, Hawkeye fans; it doesn't look good, if you're looking for 5 star recruits.  In terms of how the Hawkeyes are stacking up in the Big Ten: they're dead last.  They have no committments from any Top 100 recruits, no 5 star recruits, only 2 four star recruits, and just 1 three star recruit.  The other 13 recruits are 2 star or under. 

Before you get too excited....I completely understand that Kirk Ferentz and his crew turn decent players into good players and good players into great players.  The Hawkeyes do more with less than about anyone in the country.  Believe me, folks, I get that and support it.  Perhaps the heart and soul of the Iowa program is that Ferentz picks players that fit the program rather than morphing the program to fit the players.  There are no primadonna's wearing the Black and Gold, and therein lies the success of the Hawkeyes.  The players on that field definitely understand the meaning of "team" because they have to earn their spot on the depth chart and have to prove themselves week in and week out.

Having said that...It sure would be nice to get a top recruit every now and then, and it would be great to see a few 4 star players choose Iowa over, say, Ohio State or Penn State.  It's awefully difficult to fight for the Big Ten title when you're starting the season with less natural talent than your opponents. 

But enough of the complaining/explaining....here are the players:

**** Keenan Davis  WR  6'3"/195 lbs./4.50 - 40   Keenan will likely find his way onto the field very early in his career.  Ricky Stanzi is growing and developing very well as a QB and needs good targets to toss to.  With Andy Brodell graduating, there's an empty spot on the field, and Davis should fill it nicely.   His evaluation indicates that he has great body control and puts himself in good position to make tough catches. Davis will be an electric addition to the receiving corps and should help add a lot of depth on the offense, opening up a pass attack that will compliment the rush attack very nicely. 

****Brandon Wegher RB 5'11"/206 lbs./4.43 - 40  Brandon's addition may not be immediately felt.  Jewel Hampton did a wonderful job running in Shonn Greene's shadow and there's little doubt that Hampton is more than ready to break out in 2009 as the premier back in the Hawkeye lineup.  However, if Wegher lives up to his billing, he could be the next Jewel Hampton, getting a fair number of carries while Hampton takes a breather and maybe getting some time on special teams.  As a sophomore, Wegher had an amazing 8.9 ypc average.  Since then, he's bulked up a little bit, costing him just a tad in his 40 time, but benefitting him immeasurably in durability.  He received offers from Auburn, Illinois, Iowa State, Kansas, Penn State and Texas Tech, but chose the Hawkeyes.  Good call Brandon!  Welcome to Iowa!

***Jordon Cotton WR 6'1"/175/4.50 - 40 Jordon has good size for a receiver, though a little extra height wouldn't hurt anything, but (by his own admission) he plays aggressively.  Cotton should be a good addition to bolster the receiving corps, but he may need a little extra development.  His GPA isn't bad (2.7) but it's not great either.  He's going to have to keep his head on straight and keep his mind on his studies.  Iowa is pretty stringent about having student athletes and not the other way around.  If he keeps his GPA above the minimum allowed, and stays eligible, the Hawks should have ample targets to throw to over the next couple of years.

**Dakota Getz TE 6'4"/210/4.70 - 40   I'm really stoked about this recruit.  While Getz doesn't exactly come highly recruited, he's a diamond in the rough.  Much like Brandon Myers, who was ready to go to Northern Iowa when the Hawkeyes came calling, Getz was poised to head off to Northern Illinois, but jumped at the chance to be a Hawkeye.  Getz played QB in high school with some impressive numbers, but was a two way player, racking up 88 tackles and five sacks.  While I really hope that Getz can be the next Dallas Clark, his versatility virtually assures him a spot somewhere on the field.  He could end up being the next Jerod DeVries just as easily.  By all accounts Dakota is an outstanding athlete.  Perhaps because of, rather than in spite of, the fact that he was nearly looked over by everyone in the BCS, Dakota will work as hard or harder than anyone else to prove he belongs.  Get to know the name....you'll be hearing it a lot in a couple of years.

**Micah Hyde QB 6'1"/165 lbs no 40 time  I know very little about Micah, so appologies for not having much to say.  What I do know is that Hyde had offers from six other schools, but chose Iowa.  He'll have a couple of years to learn the system behind Ricky Stanzi and may offer something new to the Hawkeyes. 

**Matt Murphy OL 6'6"/250 lbs   Matt is a big boy, who will have a chance to grow and also a chance to get busy early.  Iowa's losing a couple of their "big fellas", including Seth Olsen.  I wouldn't be too optimistic that he'll find himself in the starting lineup as a true freshman, but with an open spot comes open opportunity.  At worst, he'll have some very good players to watch and learn from over the next year or two.

**Connor Boffeli TE 6'5"/245 lbs.   Connor originally committed to play at Iowa State.  When Gene Chizik departed, however, Connor had a change of heart and chose the Hawkeyes instead.  The Cyclone's loss is definitely the Hawkeye's gain.  At 6-5/ 245, Connor is nearly as big as some of their linemen, which is very good for a blocking TE.  The skill that would put him over the top would be an ability to catch the football.  West Des Moines Valley is a football machine, churning out Hawkeyes and Cyclones gallore.  Chances are good this young man will see quite a bit of playing time in his future at Iowa.  The only real question is: where?

**Josh Brown WR 5'11"/190 lbs/4.55 - 40   On his bio, Brown is listed as both WR and QB.  That could be very interesting and exciting to watch.  At 5-11, he's a couple inches short for a WR, but with his experience as a QB could add the kind of element other programs have used in Spread Offenses.  Iowa has no intentions of switching to a Spread-O, but having a mobile QB who can slip out of the backfield and receive a pass is nothing to shake a stick at.  I'll be excited to keep an eye on Josh's development and see if he plays under center or out on the end.

**Marty Hopkins MLB 6'3"/230 lbs.  There's talk that Hopkins could switch positions when he gets to Iowa, but I haven't heard what that switch would be.  At 6-3/230, Hopkins could potentially be a decent TE, but that's just my take.  Iowa has a pretty fair tradition of strong LB's, and Hopkins could be the next to follow the Greenway/Hodge/Edds mold.

**Tyler Harrell DE 6'4"/225 lbs.  Again, here's a player I know virtually nothing about, other than that he hails from Dublin, Ohio. 

**Shane Dibona RB 6'2"/220 lbs.  Shane is listed as both RB and DE.  With a pretty decent stable of RB's, Dibona would have to really raise some eyebrows to land a spot in the Hawkeye backfield.  Maybe he's capable of doing just that.  Given his versatility, however, I'm guessing Kirk Ferentz has other plans for young Mr. Dibona. 

**Anthony Schiavone TE 6'6"/225 lbs./4.75 - 40   Schiavone is a strong recruit coming is at TE.  The third new TE in the Hawkeye stable actually boasts better numbers than the previous two.  Anthony has the height and size to be a great target for Stanzi to toss to.  His 40 speed may not be lightning, but it isn't bad, either.  Anthony bolted from Temple to pick the Hawkeyes after witnessing their dismantling of Wisconsin midway through the season.  Note to Hawkeye recruting staff: start throwing offers at these guys a little earlier and they won't have to embarrass someone by leaving them to come to Iowa.

**Scott Covert DE 6'3"/240 lbs.  Scott is the son of former Chicago Bear Jimbo Covert, who also went to school at Pitt.  Covert passed by an offer from his dad's alma mater to come play for the Hawkeyes.  He's listed as both a DE and DT, and with his pedigree, he's likely to know a thing or two about playing ball.  This is another one that could potentially be a diamond in the rough.  If there's any speed behind that size, Scott could grow into a King clone.  We can always hope, can't we?  Norm Turner is the best in the biz at developing young talent and he's got something good to work with here.

**Brett Van Stoten OT 6'7"/255 lbs.  I have no good information on Van Stoten.  I'll update as I get more/better information.  With his size, though, he looks like a solid member of the next OL rotation.

**Drew Clark OG 6'4"/280 lbs.  With a 4.15 GPA, this kid could be a rocket scientist, but is lookiing at majoring in engineering.  His coach touts him as a well grounded kid who keeps things in perspective.  It's the perfect mold of a Kirk Ferentz top recruit.  He was heavily recruited by Iowa State, Kansas and Purdue.  He appears to be exactly the kind of player Iowa loves to groom.  He's smart, hard working and has the physical attributes to make an early impact. 

**Brad Rogers FB 5'9"/230 lbs.  Rogers was the first to commit to Iowa for the 2009 season.  Iowa doesn't use the FB the way they used to back in the days of the "Power I", but Brad's size is in the mold of Shonn Greene and we saw how that turned out.  It'll be interesting to see exactly where Brad lines up when he gets to take the field, but the word is, he's a bruising back that likes to punish tacklers.  Hmmm....where have we heard that before?

 New Commits

***Nolan MacMillan OT  6'6"/285 lbs  MacMillan hails from The Hun School, Princeton, N.J.  I missed this 3-star athlete on my first go round.  He's a solid player that's gotten his share of attention.  It's great to see a good O-Lineman commit to the Hawkeyes.  Nolan should help keep the line strong going into the future, which everyone knows is essential to sustained success.

**Stephane Ngoumou  WR 6'4"/210 lbs./ 4.55 - 40  I know very little about Stephane other than that he hails from Rockville, MD.  At 6-4/210 he's a good size for a receiver and has decent speed.  I'm seeing a good pattern in the recruits we're bringing in.  I've got a gut feeling this kid will be very good in a couple of years.  Remember the name....don't try to spell it...but remember it. 

That's a quick rundown of the Iowa Hawkeye Class of 2009 recruits. 

So, who's still got Iowa on their radar?

****Justin Brown WR 6'3"/210lbs/4.48  Brown would be a fantastic addition to the Hawkeye lineup.  The Delaware native was named All State or All County at WR, DB and Punter, which gives him multiple opportunities at the college level.  If he doesn't immediately make an impact at WR, he would definitely be a great addition to the Hawkeye defensive secondary, which has had its share of rough years. 

Who else is on his radar?  committed to Penn State

***Dolapo Macarthy QB 6'6"/200lbs/4.70 - 40   The analysis of Macarthy sounds very good.  He has a great touch, and a good arm.  He apparently has very good pocket presence and ability to escape the sack.

Who else is on his radar?  Macarthy shows high interest in both Iowa and Indiana, but is also recruited by Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Bowling Green and Central Michigan. 

***Darren Jones QB 6'3"/195 lbs/ 4.50 - 40   I have no info on Jones other than that he lists as both a QB and WR.  His height and speed would make him a decent addition to the receiver corps, if the QB position isn't available to him.

Who else is on his radar?  committed to   New Mexico

***Clayton Moore QB 6'2"/205/4.70  The analysis of Moore is fantastic.  He shows great pocket presence and leadership abilities, but is fully capable of pulling the ball down and running with it.  He's a fierce competitor who takes control of the action.  Scout lists his size as a negative, but I think 6-2/205 isn't all that bad for a QB and he has more than adequate arm strength.  If size is an issue, he can always bulk up a little.

Who else is on his radar?  Moore shows high interest in Mississippi, with virtually no interest anywhere else.  The problem is, Ole Miss hasn't offered Moore a scholarship.  Perhaps if they balk long enough, Moore will look a little farther north.  Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Virginia Tech have also offered him scholarships.

***Anthony Aker WR 6'2"/198/4.5  Aker is a JC standout at Rochester CTC.  Aker led the nation in receiving yards and touchdowns in 2007.  So far Anthony has not been offered any scholarships, but he's actively looking for a bigger ride than the JUCO route. 

Who else is on his radar?  Aker is looking at Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, TCU and Wisconsin, as well as Iowa, but shows only medium interest in them all. 

***Ka'Lial Glaud MLB 6'1"/209/4.65  Glaud is the nephew of former Iowa All-American LB Leroy Smith.  That tidbit of information aside, Glaud played mostly QB in high school.  In fact, he only played three games at LB, but racked up 40 tackles and 2 sacks in that time frame.  He's a litle small for a collegiate LB, but that can be remedied. 

Who else is on his radar?  committed to Rutgers

***Josh Evans S 6'2"/185/4.43  I hesitate to even list Evans.  He has low interest in Iowa, but in fairness, the Hawkeyes are still on the radar. 

Who else is on his radar?  committed to Florida 

***Jairus Jones S 6'1"/205/4.6  Jones' father played RB in the NFL, and played college at Florida.  Like Evans, he has low interest in the Hawkeyes, but did visit on January 24th. 

Who else is on his radar?  committed to Michigan State

That's the run down on Iowa's recruting situation, as reported by Scout.com.  If anything has changed, I apologize for the oversight and will make corrections as I find them.  Also, I'll update again in a little while to see who else the Hawkeyes pick up, who pops up on the radar and who drops off the map. 

All-in-all, there's some very exciting talent looking Iowa's way and some great people Ferentz can work with and develop.  Yes, as I said before, it would be great to see some higher ranking talent come to Iowa City, but the coaching staff has done wonders with exactly this kind of talent before.  Give these young men a chance in the Ferentz, Turner, O'Keefe system and we'll be hearing these names making exciting plays in just a few short years, if not sooner.

 

 

 

Now I'll finish out my bowl picks with the "Big Three".

CAPITAL ONE BOWL

January 1, 2009  1:00 PM  ABC

Georgia vs. Michigan State

The Statistics:

Georgia Bulldogs (9-3)

Passing:

Matthew Stafford     215 completions     352 attempts     3209 yards     61.1%     22 TDs to 9 INTs     153.2 QB Rating

Joe Cox     11 comp     15 att     151 yards     73.3%     2 TDs to 0 INTs     201.9 QB Rating

Team Notes  Georgia has a very nice 61.2% completion average and have racked up 24 TDs to just 9 INTs.  Stafford leads the SEC in passing yards per game (267.4).  He'll give MSU's 63rd rated pass defense fits.

Rushing:

Knowshon Moreno     227 carries     1338 yards     5.9 ypc     16 TDs

Caleb King     61 carries     247 yards     4.0 ypc     1 TD

Richard Samuel     26 carries     133 yards     5.1 ypc     1 TD

Team Notes     The Bulldogs have put up 21TDs on the ground, mostly behind Moreno.  Their ground attack is stronger thanks to an offensive line that has steadily progressed through the regular season. 

Receiving:

A.J. Green     55 receptions     951 yards     8 TDs

Mohamed Massaquol     57 rec     910 yards     8 TDs

Michael Moore     23 rec     354 yards     1 TD

Knowshon Moreno     27 rec     329 yards     1 TD

Kris Durham     10 rec     167 yards     1 TD

Demiko Goodman     10 rec     129 yards     1 TD

Team Notes     Georgia has used 18 receivers to get 226 receptions for 3360 yards and 24 TDs.  They have a solid balance between the running game and pass attack.  Durham and Green have both been plagued by injuries.  Durham underwent surgery to repair a broken left hand.  Both are expected to be a "go" come game time and should be at 100%. 

Michigan State Spartans (9-3)

Passing:

Brian Hoyer     162 completions     319 attempts     2235 yards     50.8%     9 TDs to 8 INTs     113.9 QB Rating

Kirk Cousins     28 comp     38 att     274 yards     73.7%     2 TDs to 1 INT     146.4 QB Rating

Team Notes     Hoyer has been inconsistent, causing Javon Ringer to have to carry much of the load on offense.  Against Georgia, Hoyer will have to be on target and have his head in the game.  He'll have his favorite receiver, Mark Dell back from injury, to help his confidence.

Rushing:

Javon Ringer     370 carries     1590 yards     4.3 ypc     21 TDs

Andre Anderson     26 carries     97 yards     3.7 ypc     0 TD

B.J. Cunningham     4 carries     56 yards     14.0 ypc     0 TD

Team Notes     Despite Ringer being on everybody's radar as a Heisman candidate and a Doak Walker finalist, the Spartans are rated only 69th in rushing offense.  He'll be teeing off against the 40th rated rush defense.  He's faced much tougher defenses, though and still put up solid numbers.  Expect a 25-30 carry day.

Receiving:

Blair White     39 receptions     628 yards     1 TD

Mark Dell     31 rec     618 yards     3 TDs

B.J. Cunningham     35 rec     476 yards     0 TD

Charlie Gantt     19 rec     302 yards     4 TDs

Javon Ringer     25 rec     160 yards     0 TD

Team Notes     Michigan State used 15 receivers to get 192 receptions for 2568 yards and 11 TDs.  Given Hoyers inconsistency, the pass game has been more of a "as-needed" tool rather than a serious attack.  They prefer to put the ball in the able hands of Ringer and let him carry them to victory.

What's it all mean Bassil?

Georgia has a well balanced attack that they can throw at the Spartan defense.  Michigan State, on the other hand, is a running team that lays it all on Ringer's shoulders.  That's not necessarily a bad thing.  Not only has Ringer gained nearly 1600 yards on the ground against some pretty tough rushing defenses, Georgia was run all over by Georgia Tech.  In that game Roddy Jones ran for 214 yards and Jonathan Dwyer added another 144.  Those two combined for 33 carries that game.  Ringer alone often touches the ball that many times.  If he can get the same kind of production Dwyer and Jones did, Georgia is in for a long day. 

On paper, Georgia has the clear advantage in terms of the number of weapons at their disposal as well as their overall ratings. 

What will likely happen:

Javon Ringer said he'd like to have "twenty five carries and two hundred yards in a win".  He could do it, but I think it'll take more than 25 carries to get that 200 yards.  Then again, seeing as how he's both their main weapon and that he'll likely be going pro after this season, he'll probably touch the ball closer to 30-35 times.  Ringer will find the endzone twice.  However....

Georgia has too many weapons.  They're just too balanced for the Spartan defense to keep under wraps.  Stafford, Moreno and Green will combine for some big gains and more than enough points to send the Spartans back to Michigan with a bowl loss on their hands.

My Pick: Georgia 27 - Michigan State 17 

Actual: Georgia 24 - Michigan State 12

MSU was beat in the 3rd quarter.  They took a 6-3 lead into the lockers at halftime, playing very tough defensive ball.  The Dawgs put up 14 unanswered points in the 3rd, however, and MSU never quite recovered.  They did put up another TD in the 4th to draw within 5 (missed 2pt conv.), but then gave up a TD to Georgia on the other end of the field.  Both RB's were held below their expectations, and both had flashes of greatness, but it was the passing game that made the difference and Georgia simply had more weapons. 

ROSE Presented by Citi

January 1, 2009  4:30 PM  ABC

Penn State vs. USC

The Statistics:

Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1)

Passing:

Daryll Clark     171 completions     285 attempts     2319 yards     60.0%     17 TDs to 4 INTs     145.2 QB Rating

Pat Devlin     25 comp     47 att     459 yards     53.2%     4 TDs to 0 INT     163.3 QB Rating

Paul Cianciolo     6 comp     9 att     86 yards     66.7%     1 TD to 0 INT     183.6 QB Rating

Team Notes     The Lions have a very respectable 58.8 completion percentage with 22 TDs to only 4 INTs.  Their "Spread HD" allows Clark to make good reads and pick amongst several targets.  He's done a fantastic job of leading this new offense and making things happen.

Rushing:

Evan Royster     185 carries     1202 yards     6.5 ypc     12 TDs

Stephon Green     95 carries     521 yards     5.5 ypc     4 TDs

Daryll Clark     72 carries     265 yards     3.7 ypc     9 TDs

Derrick Williams     39 carries     226 yards     5.8 ypc     3 TDs

Team Notes     Royster's 6.5 ypc is amazing, surpassing even Doak Walker winner Shonn Greene's average.  Penn State has put the ball into the endzone 35 times from the ground and average a very nice 5.36 ypc as a team.  I can remember when 3.0 ypc was considered a solid run game.  These guys are putting that old mark to shame.  Dispite Clark's ability to move the ball effectively through the air, Penn State has run the ball 130 times more than they've passed it.  Royster has led this unit to a 15th rated rush attack.  They'll be facing the 5th rated rush defense, though, so they'll need some great play at the line to keep the backs moving forward.

Receiving:

Deon Butler     43 receptions     713 yards     7 TDs

Jordan Norwood     38 rec     605 yards     5 TDs

Derrick Williams     40 rec     451 yards     3 TDs

Stephon Green     10 rec     201 yards     1 TD

Team Notes     Penn State used 16 receivers to get 2887 yards and 22 TDs.  Butler, Norwood and Williams provide Clark with several options to turn to through the air, but they'll be facing the #1 rated pass defense in the nation.  Some consideration has to be given to the strength of the Pac-10, but it'll still be very tough for PSU to move the ball through the air. 

Southern California Trojans (11-1)

Passing:

Mark Sanchez     213 completions     331 attempts     2794 yards     64.4%     30 TDs to 10 INTs     159.1 QB Rating

Mitch Mustain     11 comp     16 att     157 yards     68.8%     2 TDs to 2 INTs     167.4 QB Rating

Team Notes     Sanchez and Co. have completed a fantastic 64.4% of their passes for just under 3000 yards and 32 TDs.  That efficiency will be tested against the 12th rated pass defense. 

Rushing:

Joe McKnight     84 carries     646 yards     7.7 ypc     2 TDs

Stafon Johnson     123 carries     642 yards     5.2 ypc     9 TDs

C.J. Gable     101 carries     604 yards     6.0 ypc     8 TDs

Team Notes     USC carried the ball 463 times for 2464 yards and 26 TDs.  This is an interesting rotation.  any of these backs could potentially be a star in their own right if they were carrying the ball more.  Rotating them around has been just as effective though, and ensures plenty of depth in the running game.  The unit is rated 17th and will be facing the 9th rated rush defense.

Receiving:

Damian Williams     48 receptions     707 yards     8 TDs

Patrick Turner     45 rec     667 yards     10 TDs

Ronald Johnson     29 rec     488 yards    6 TDs

Stanley Havili     24 rec     324 yards     3 TDs

Team Notes     USC has nicely balanced their 26 rushing TDs with 32 through the air, dispite running the ball 100 more times than throwing.  Williams, Johnson and Turner are all threats to make big plays and Havili is a huge receiving target coming out of the fullback position.  If they can keep PSU's front four out of the backfield and give Sanchez time to toss the ball, they'll keep the Lion's defense on their toes.

What's it all mean Bassil?

While both of these offenses are efficient and more than capable of putting up points, this is really a battle of the defenses.  USC has the #1 rated defense in the nation and PSU is #5. 

Both teams have QB's that have completion percentages in the 60's; both have RB's with ypc averages above 6.5; and both have receivers with multiple TDs to their credit.  Each team's strengths will be pitted against the other's. 

In a nutshell, this should be a fantastic game.  Probably the best bowl game of the season.

What'll likely happen:

Both teams will find a big play or two, but for the most part, yardage will be hard to come by.  There will be a lot of hard hitting and some great defensive plays that'll make you sit up and pay attention. 

USC will move the ball around a lot and test Penn State's resolve.  Sanchez will find Williams and Turner for a TD each, but that'll be about it.  Penn State will be the toughest test they've faced all year.

Penn State will initially find their "Spread HD" about as effective against USC as they did against Iowa.  They'll be down by 10 going into the half.  The second half will be a different story, though.  Royster and Green will find a rythm that'll suck the USC defense in, and Clark will begin to find Butler, Norwood and Williams on short passes to keep the ball moving. 

In the end, it'll come down to the kicking game to make the difference.  Kevin Kelly has a bit more experience there than Buehler does.  PSU will force USC to overtime and Kelly will knock in the winning goal.

My Pick:  Penn State 23 - USC 20

Actual: USC 38 - Penn State 24

Don't let the score fool you...it wasn't even that close.  To all of the USC fans out there, you have my official apology for saying that your defensive ranking was questionable.  In my defense, I think it's tough to tell how good any team's offense/defense really is when the only solid comparison for them you have is conference opponents.  Penn State kept it close in the first quarter, tying the game at 7-7.  Then USC turned on the heat and burned Penn State to the ground. The Lion's secondary seemed scared of the Trojan receivers, playing way off the line and giving up tons of yardage on shorter passes that turned into big gains.  Finally, in the 4th quarter they started to put something together...when USC had was in "junk time".  It was an unfortunate ending to a great regular season.

TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL

January 5, 2009  8:00 PM  FOX

Texas vs. Ohio State

The Statistics:

Texas Longhorns (11-1)

Passing:

Colt McCoy     291 completions     375 attempts     3445 yards     77.6%     32 TDs to 7 INTs     179.2 QB Rating

John Chiles     11 comp     13 att     149 yards     84.6%     2 TDs to 0 INTs     231.7 QB Rating

Team Notes     Everyone knows Colt McCoy nearly won the Heisman Trophy, and for good reason.  With an efficiency like that, he would have any other year.  He led a unit that's rated 11th in passing yards with 34 TDs and 3594 yards.  They'll be going up against the 6th rated pass defense, and that will be big.  No other team in the Big XII (North or South) comes close to the kind of defense they'll face in OSU.

Rushing:

Colt McCoy     128 carries     576 yards     4.5 ypc     10 TDs

Vondrell McGee     88 carries     376 yards     4.3 ypc     4 TDs

Cody Johnson     73 carries     336 yards     4.6 ypc     12 TDs

Chris Ogbonnaya     63 carries     331 yards     5.3 ypc     4 TDs

Team Notes     McCoy is as effective on the ground as he is in the air with a ypc average that rivals many tailbacks in the country.  With McGee, Johnson & Co. along for the ride, the Longhorns have put up 2127 yards on 475 carries and 32 TDs.  They're rated 35th in terms of yards.  As stiff as OSU's defense is, rushing isn't their strong suit.  They're ranked 20th, which isn't bad, but the 'Horns may find it easier to move on the ground than through the air.

Receiving:

Jordan Shipley     79 receptions     982 yards     11 TDs

Quan Cosby     78 rec     952 yards     8 TDs

Chris Ogbannaya     42 rec     484 yards     3 TDs

Brandon Collins     28 rec     370 yards     3 TDs

Malcolm Williams     17 rec     304 yards     3 TDs

Team Notes     Texas used 15 receivers to amass 3594 yards on 302 receptions for 34 TDs.  McCoy is so dangerous because he can run as well as throw, but Shipley has been a solid, dangerous receiver.  Their 34 passing TDs nicely compliments the 32 they've gotten on the ground.  Once again, they'll test OSU's defense, which is rated 6th against the pass. 

Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2)

Passing:

Terrelle Pryor     95 completions     152 attempts     1245 yards     62.5%     12 TDs to 4 INTs     152.1 QB Rating

Todd Boeckman     52 comp     81 att     510 yards     64.2%     4 TDs to 2 INTs     128.4 QB Rating

Team Notes     Pryor didn't start the season as the Buckeyes' QB.  He earned that spot part way through the season and had to grow a little to become what he is now.  OSU has the 104th rated passing offense, but that's slightly skewed.  Like McCoy, Pryor is a running QB, who spends about as much time sprinting down the field as he does sitting in the pocket...probably more.  Luckily for them, they'll be facing teh 110th rated pass defense.  Say what you want about the Big XII South being the toughest conference to defend against the pass...that's still not a good defensive stat.  Pryor should have a slightly better opportunity to throw the ball than he's had against some Big Ten opponents.

Rushing:

Chris Wells     191 carries     1091 yards     5.7 ypc     8 TDs

Terrell Pryor     124 carries     553 yards     4.5 ypc     6 TDs

Daniel Herron     84 carries     409 yards     4.9 ypc     5 TDs

Team Notes     Wells spent much of the season dealing with a mysterious foot injury.  If his performance in the later part of the season is any indication, his stats are about 500-700 yards short of where they'd be if he'd been healthy.  The Buckeyes have carried the ball 495 times for 2321 yards, averaging 4.69 ypc for 20 TDs.  That's good enough for a 28th rating, going up against the 2nd rated run defense.  Again...the Big XII South is a pass happy conference, so that rating isn't suprising.  Still, Wells will really have to work for it this time.

Receiving:

Brian Hartline     21 receptions     479 yards     4 TDs

Brian Robiskie     37 rec     419 yards     8 TDs

Dane Sanzenbacher     21 rec    272 yards     1 TD

Ray Small     18 rec     149 yards     0 TD

Team Notes     OSU has used 13 different receivers for 150 receptions, 1777 yards and 16 TDs.  Robiskie is easily the favored target, but don't discount the others.  The Buckeyes can move the ball through the air pretty efficiently.  As I said above, they'll be facing the 110th rated pass defense, so we'll see if that's merely because of the conference Texas plays in, or if they're really that bad.  If they're really that bad, OSU will move the ball easily through the air and open up the ground game for Wells.

What's it all mean Bassil?

Not that much, when it comes down to it.  Fans of Texas will quickly shout out that the only reason their pass defense is rated so low is because they've had to play against teams like Oklahoma, Texas Tech and such.  When facing QB's like the ones their conference has, they'd like to see anyone else do better.  OSU will also quickly point out that Wells was injured and Pryor was a later development, and that's why they're stats aren't better.  Both are right...and both are wrong, at least to a degree. 

OSU has a great run defense.  Unfortunately, the run isn't the aspect they really have to worry about so much.  McCoy is quite comfortable burning them through the air.  Likewise, Texas has an even better run defense (on paper), but there again, Pryor can burn them through the air too.  The difference is that I've yet to see a team Texas has faced that can run the ball as well as OSU's Wells can, which will put that rating to the test.  They also haven't faced a defense like OSU's, which will put their entire offense to the test.  However....

OSU hasn't exactly been stellar this year against teams that were equal or better than them.  They hung tight with Penn State, but lost at home, nonetheless.  They were destroyed by USC; though, in fairness, they were missing Wells and Pryor hadn't asserted himself as the starter yet. 

What it all comes down to is: this is a game between a team that has a legitimate argument that they should have been in the National Championship Game and a team that's trying to get the "Big Game" monkey off their back.  It's a game between two excellent run defenses, facing two very good pass offenses.  The question will be: is Texas' #2 rated rush defense for real?

What will likely happen:

This will be an exciting match, no doubt about it.  I'm sorry to tell Texas fans that I don't think this is going to be the blowout you're expecting.  If it is, its still not good because it won't be your team doing the blowing out.  I don't think it will be, though.  OSU's defense is very good, all the way around.  They'll get burned a time or two by McCoy, but not as often as you're used to.  The Texas run game will be virtually non-existent. 

Don't get too excited, though, Buckeye fans.  Wells may have a pretty good day, but Pryor won't find the passing as clean as he'd think, despite Texas' low rating.  They've faced tougher pass offenses and survived.  This game will be a shootout...not something OSU is really accustomed to.

My Pick:  Texas 41 - Ohio State 37

Actual: Texas 24 - Ohio State 21

OSU gave Texas all they could handle and can go into next season with their heads held high.  Of course, many will say that they failed to get it done, yet again.  The game came down to one play in the end.  With time running low, Texas ran a quick snap and caught OSU off guard for the go ahead score.  The first half of the game was almost boring.  Both teams were a little sloppy and both struggled to put points on the board.  The Buckeyes led 6-3 at the half.  The second half lit up a little better, with OSU throwing everything at the Longhorns but the kitchen sink.  For the most part, it worked.  The D's began to look tired, though and Texas struck the final blow with not enough time left for OSU to do anything about it. 

Ohio State may not win that game, but they'll keep it close enough and make enough good plays to regain a little respect in the poll of public opinion.

That's it for the Big Ten season.  As a conference, the B-10 was a lowly 1-6.  I went 2-1 on my picks for this segment, but take very little confort in it.  I would much rather have been wrong and seen Big Ten teams fare better.  All-in-all, it was another exciting year of football and I'm anxious to see what the recruiting trail nets for our teams.  With several teams stepping up their play this year, things should be very exciting next fall. 

For those who have frequented my blog, I thank you deeply.  Like my picks or not, you've come back week after week and I appreciate it.  I'll likely come back with a post-season piece, then sign off until next year.  Have a great 2009 all, and Happy Bowl Hunting next season!

That's it from here folks.  Hope you're all enjoying a very Happy Holiday and catching some great bowl games!

Be sure to check out SEABASS here.  His picks are up.

Also keep an eye on PSPKNINE here.  He may have some picks up soon.

Peace!

I've been putting this off for too long as it is, so I won't bore you with some smarmy warm-up. 

Here they are...my picks for the Big Ten Bowls:

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL

December 27, 2008  4:30 PM  ESPN

Florida State vs Wisconsin

The Statistics:

Florida State Seminoles (8-4)

Passing:

Christian Ponder     159 completions     287 attempts     1807 yards     55.4% average     12 TDs to 13 INTs     113.0 QB Rating

D'Vontrey Richardson     23 comp     44 att     315 yards     52.3% ave     3 TDs to 3 INTs     121.3 QB Rating

Team Notes     As a unit, the Seminoles have 16 TDs and 16 INTs.  They're facing the 35th ranked pass defense in terms of yardage allowed.  It's good that the Badgers aren't ranked higher than that, but then again, Fla. St. could have gotten a worse pass defense to work against.  They'll have to be careful with the football.  Wisconsin's Niles Brinkley has 4 INTs to his credit this year and the team as a whole has 12. 

Rushing:

Antone Smith     161 carries     753 yards     4.7 ypc     14 TDs

Jermaine Thomas     66 carries     478 yards     7.2 ypc     3 TDs

Christian Ponder     110 carries     404 yards     3.7 ypc     4 TDs

D'Vontrey Richardson     35 carries     254 yards     7.3 ypc     3 TDs

Team Notes      Florida State has a nice 5.05 ypc average as a team.  Smith has carried the bulk of the load, but the two QB's are obviously mobile enough to be a threat.  They'll need that to confuse a stiff, but beatable Badger defense.

Receiving:

Greg Carr     31 receptions     464 yards     3 TDs

Preston Parker     40 rec     372 yards     2 TDs

Taiwan Easterling     29 rec     317 yards     1 TD

Bert Reed     18 rec     271 yards     3 TDs

Corey Surrency     11 rec     212 yards     4 TDs

Team Notes     The Seminoles have used 17 different receivers to rack up 2230 yards on 188 receptions.  Much like Wisconsin, Florida State runs the ball more than they pass it.  That will slow down the action a little and put the pressure on the defenses to make the stop down after down.  Still, the Seminoles have a wide range of targets they can aim at. 

Wisconsin Badgers (7-5)

Passing:

Dustin Sherer     95 completions     175 attempts     1257 yards     54.3%     5 TDs to 5 INTs     118.3 QB Rating

Allan Evridge     71 comp     132 att     949 yards     53.8%     5 TDs to 5 INTs     119.1 QB Rating

Team Notes     This has been a problem area for Wisconsin all season long.  As a unit they have more INTs (11) than they do TDs (10).  Dustin Sherer has been the starter most of the season but he really hasn't established himself as the QB Wisconsin needs.  To compound matters, they're facing the 8th rated pass defense.  Guess how often the Badgers are going to opt for the pass play???  Better yet...guess how often they should opt for the pass play??

Rushing:

P.J. Hill     211 carries     1021 yards     4.8 ypc     13 TDs

John Clay     144 carries     845 yards     5.9 ypc     9 TDs

Zach Brown     54 carries     306 yards     5.7 ypc     3 TDs

Team Notes     The Badgers have carried the ball 521 times vs 321 pass attempts.  As noted above...is it any wonder?  PJ Hill and John Clay have blossomed into a pretty potent duo out of Wisconsin's backfield.  They have different running styles but compliment each other nicely.  Florida State will need to key on these two if they want to put Wisconsin's game into a frantic state of panic.  Shut them down and they'll be forced to turn to Sherer and the dangerously inconsistent pass game.

Receiving:

David Gilreath     30 receptions     515 yards     3 TDs

Garrett Graham     37 receptions     478 yards     5 TDs

Isaac Anderson     19 rec     268 yards     0 TD

Travis Beckum     23 rec     264 yards     0 TD

Team Notes     Wisconsin has 10 TDs and 2313 yards on 171 receptions.  Gilreath has emerged as a powerful target for Sherer to concentrate on.  He's gone a very long way toward opening up the Badger offense.  Dustin Sherer is going to have to play smarter than he has in the past. 

What's it all mean Bassil?

Obviously this isn't going to be a high-flying shootout.  Each team is as adept at throwing interceptions as they are touchdowns.  If it does become an air war, Florida State definitely has the upper hand.  Wisconsin's pass defense isn't bad by any stretch, but it's not a top 10 pass defense like the Seminoles boast.  This will be a ground pounder with some of the best play coming at the line of scrimmage.  Sorry for all of you that get bored with that kind of football. 

What it comes down to:

Like I said before, this will come down to the play at the lines.  These two teams didn't face any mutual opponents, so there's no clear cut way of comparing them.  Wisconsin had a shaky start to their conference schedule...check that...they fell apart...but they picked it up to end the season.  It all hinged around the play at the line.  The Badgers buckled down and suddenly Gilreath became a monster receiver and the Hill/Clay duo became stellar.  Need any other confirmation that line play makes all the difference in the world? 

Florida State has a questionable defensive line.  They're quick enough, but not nearly strong enough.  They've struggled against physical offensive lines and teams that try to pound the ball down their throat....aka...Wisconsin.  They'll have to get great play out of their LBs to slow down the run game.

What will likely happen:

Florida State will stretch the Wisconsin defense and try to confuse them with rushing QBs.  It'll get them some nice plays here and there and no doubt they'll put some points on the board.  However...Wisconsin will control the line of scrimmage when they have the ball and eat huge chunks of time off the clock.  They'll literally pound the ball down FSU's throat on the way to a nice win to close out the season.

My Pick:  Wisconsin 30 - Florida State 20

Actual: Florida State 42 - Wisconsin 13

When I'm wrong, I'm wrong...and boy, oh boy, was I WRONG!  The first half was decent with FSU going into halftime with a 14-3 lead, but in the second half, it was all Seminoles.  Wisconsin had absolutely no answer for that FSU offense.  What made bad turn to worse was a slew of turnovers, two of which were returned for TD's.  Sherer played poorly and FSU could just tee off on the run game all evening.  That was embarrassing Badgers....just embarrassing. 

VALERO ALAMO BOWL

December 29, 2008  8:00 PM  ESPN

Northwestern vs Missouri

The Statistics

Northwestern Wildcats:

Passing: 

C.J. Bacher      218 comp.      365 attempts      2128 yards      59.7% average     14 TDs to 14 INTs     113.7 QB Rating

Mike Kafka     32 comp.     46 attempts     330 yards     69.6% average     2 TDs to 3 INTs     131.1 QB Rating

Team notes     16 TDs and 17 INTs  passing has obviously been a dangerous affair for the Wildcats.  Northwestern's rated 63rd in terms of passing yards per game.  Defensively, they're rated 76th in pass yards allowed.  That'll come into play later...

Rushing:

Tyrelle Sutton     155 carries     776 yards     5.0 ypc     6 TDs

Mike Kafka     68 carries     321 yards     4.7 ypc     1 TD

C.J. Bacher     74 carries     263 yards     3.6 ypc     3 TDs

Omar Conteh     73 carries     235 yards     3.2 ypc     3 TDs

Stephen Simmons     62 carries     178 yards     2.9 ypc     2 TDs

Team notes:     Northwestern has 1774 yards from 5 carriers with 15 TDs.  While none of their backs are outstanding by themselves, combined they're a decent enough threat to keep defenses honest.  Obviously Sutton is their biggest single threat but he's still listed as questionable for the bowl game.  More importantly, he hasn't played in the last 3+ games, meaning his conditioning and timing will be questionable as well.  Omar Conteh isn't bad, but his 3.6 ypc are a far cry short of Sutton's 5.0.  The 'Cats need Sutton back in the lineup to give some depth to their offensive attack.  Northwestern's rushing offense is ranked 59th while their defense is ranked 35th in stopping the run.

Receiving:

Eric Peterman     52 receptions     654 yards     5 TDs

Ross Lane     55 receptions     563 yards     2 TDs

Rasheed Ward     44 receptions     425 yards     2 TDs

Tyrelle Sutton     30 receptions     276 yards     2 TDs

Team notes     Northwestern has used 14 different receivers, amassed 2513 yards and 17 TDs.  The balance between their pass attack and their rush attack is very nice.  It's also very important since the Wildcats don't particularly excel in any one area. 

Defense:

Northwestern has picked off 10 passes and pick-six'd twice.  That's about average.  That's also about all I can really dig up on defensive stats for any college team that's worthwhile.  The more pertinent info is that they're 76th against the pass and 35th against the run.  The Big Ten is much more conservative than the Big XII in that the B10 utilizes the run game more than the BXII, which does make that rush stat a little better.

Missouri Tigers:

Passing:

Chase Daniel     358 comp.     484 att     4135 yards     74.0% ave.     37 TDs to 15 INTs     164.8 QB Rating

Chase Patton     12 comp.     18 att     196 yards     66.7% ave.     1 TD to 0 INTs     176.5 QB Rating

Team Notes      Obviously, Chase Daniel is the key to the Tiger offense.  He was solidly in the Heisman chase for most of the season and his 37 passing TD's is very impressive.  484 attempts is impressive.  It's also a big key for NW's defense.  Chase Patton has had very little opportunity to lead Missouri's offense in the event something should happen to Daniel or should he bomb big-time. 

Rushing:

Derrick Washington     162 carries     992 yards     17 TDs

Chase Daniel     60 carries     252 yards     1 TD

Jimmy Jackson     59 carries     247 yards     6 TDs

Team Notes     The Tigers have put up 2050 yards rushing on 383 carries.  While that is more than sufficient, I'm still struck at how lopsided the offensive attack is.  The Tigers have attempted 100 more passes than they have rushes.  Take note, Northwestern.

Receiving:

Jeremy Maclin     95 rec     1221 yards     12 TDs

Chase Coffman     83 rec     920 yards     10 TDs

Tommy Saunders     66 rec     800 yards     7 TDs

Jared Perry     39 rec     558 yards     4 TDs

Danario Alexander     23 rec     300 yards     4 TDs

Team Notes     These aren't the only receivers in Missouri's arsenal, just the ones with the most yards.  The team has combined for 4425 yards on 377 receptions and 39 TDs.  They have a lot of targets capable of making big receptions for big yards and scores.  They're a very dangerous lot. 

Defense:      Missouri is ranked 4th in the nation in passing, and you can see why.  However, they're ranked 118th against the pass, and that could be hugely detrimental.  They're only 53rd in rushing, but 38th against it.  Lucky for Missouri (particularly if Sutton is not 100%), NW isn't a big rushing team.

What's it all mean Bassil?

Northwestern cruised to 5-0 start to their campaign, then dropped three of their last seven.  That's not at all a bad thing, especially considering the years NW has had of late.  Still, they were beaten soundly by the two teams that were ranked (Michigan State and Ohio State) and dropped a crazy one to Indiana.  Injuries hurt the Wildcats tremendously.  It'll be questionable as to just how healthy they'll be at kickoff.  They're not particularly great in any one area, but solid enough in all areas to be effective.  The Wildcats like to strike quickly and move the ball slowly.  Trust me...it makes sense.  They go for shorter gains and keep the chains and the clock moving.  Tyrelle Sutton, if healthy, will give Northwestern back a solid threat that will make Missouri respect the run.  If not, CJ Bacher had better really be on his game.

Missouri has a well balanced pass attack.  Chase Daniel is a QB stud who is mobile and accurate.  They lean on him nearly as heavily as Illinois leans on Juice Williams.  The difference is, Daniel gets things done.  Northwestern's defense isn't fantastic, particularly against the pass, which will play right into the Tiger's strength.  Missouri also has a deep enough rush attack to give the Wildcats a reason to think twice about keying solely on Chase Daniel.

What it comes down to:

Competition.  Who've they played during the regular season that would indicate their particular strength?  The two teams do have one common opponent:  Illinois.  Missouri beat them 52-42, while Northwestern also beat them 27-10.  It would appear, based on that stat that NW would have the upper hand.  However, they played Illinois on opposite ends of the season, and there's no doubt that the Illini were not the same team at the end that they were at the beginning.  You could also argue that the Big Ten schedule, however weak it may appear, is still stronger than the Big XII North, and thus Missouri's stats are skewed slightly.  You could do that...but you shouldn't.  The fact is, Iowa was the only decent win Northwestern had all year and that was in the middle of a Hawkeye nightmare.  The only other decent games NW played, they were smoked. 

On the other hand, the same could largely be said of Missouri.  They did beat Nebraska, and Kansas State, but that's hardly a great accomplishment this year.  Missouri has a very explosive offense, but one that has faced less than stellar defenses most of the season.  It's safe to say that both of these teams have benefitted from a lighter than usual regular schedule. 

So, how do we figure out who's better?

What will likely happen

Northwestern will be fired up for this game.  Their #1 goal coming into this season was to win a bowl game and this is their chance.  They haven't gotten to that plateu since 1949.  This is a hurdle they desperately want and need to cross. 

Missouri needs this win just as badly, though.  The drumming they took at the hands of Oklahoma left a bad taste in their mouths and tarnished their image somewhat.  Losing to a Big Ten team (and not even the top team in the conference) would be a huge bash to that image. 

Northwestern will throw everything at Missouri they can.  Particularly, they'll pick on the Tiger pass defense.  They'll move the ball well and pick up some points along the way.

Missouri will pick Northwestern apart, however.  The Wildcat defense isn't tough enough to handle Chase Daniel and his minions of receivers.  It'll be a fairly high scoring affair, with very little in the way of defense.

My Pick:  Missouri 45 - Northwestern 31

Actual: Missouri 30 - Northwestern 23 OT

Hats off to the Wildcats.  They dominated the first half and played very tough through the second half, keeping Chase Daniel off balance and out of control.  At the end, though, Daniel pulled it together and helped his team to OT.  If not for a missed FG, MO would have won it in regulation.  NW's defense played tough and picked up 3 INT's, but ended up making some bad calls and some bad plays.  Actually, each team made some bad calls and some bad plays, but Mizzou was better at the end and that's where it counts.  Northwestern had a great showing, as no one outside of Illinois really picked them to do worth a piddle.  Helluva game!

INSIGHT BOWL

December 31, 2008  5:30 PM  NFL Network

Kansas vs. Minnesota

The Statistics:

Kansas Jayhawks (7-5)

Passing:

Todd Reesing     302 completions     460 attempts     3575 yards      65.7%     28 TDs to 12 INTs     145.8 QB Rating

Kerry Meier     2 comp     2 att     42 yards     100%     0 TD to 0 INTs     276.4 QB Rating

Team Notes     The Jayhawks have the 8th ranked passing offense facing off against the 89th rated pass defense.  Todd Reesing is the "it" for the Jayhawk pass game, and he's carried the responsibility well.  Unfortunately....

Rushing:

Jake Sharp     170 carries     796 yards     4.7 ypc     11 TDs

Angus Quigley     59 carries     309 yards     5.2 ypc     3 TDs

Jacques Crawford     62 carries     232 yards     3.7 ypc     4 TDs

Team Notes     The Jayhawks average an anemic 3.77 yards per carry as a team.  Sharp is respectable, as is Quigley, but they don't get the carries necessary to showcase what they're truly capable of.  Sharp averages less than 15 carries per game.  Obviously, Kansas has made the passing game their main offensive weapon.  Weak play at the line has been a big part of that decision, but run blocking is often easier than pass blocking.  Given Minnesota's ability to generate pressure and turnovers, KU may want to rethink their strategy for this game.

Receiving:

Dezmon Briscoe     78 receptions     1206 yards     12 TDs

Kerry Meier     87 rec     932 yards     7 TDs

Jonathon Wilson     41 rec     556 yards     2 TDs

Jake Sharp     25 rec     283 yards     1 TD

Dexton Fields     19 rec     209 yards     3 TDs

Team Notes     With Reesing taking 460 shots downfield, its not surprising that he connected 305 times for 3628 yards and 28 TDs.  Dezmon Briscoe is doing double duty now, taking over kick returns as well.  He's been their biggest target all year, but Kerry Meier is no slouch either.  If the O-Line can give Reesing time to throw the ball, Kansas should be able to move the ball through the air against this defense.  The problem is, Minnesota's used to facing much stiffer offensive lines.

Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5)

Passing:

Adam Weber     236 completions     376 attempts     2585 yards     62.8%     14 TDs to 8 INTs     128.6 QB Rating

Justin Kucek     2 comp     2 att     12 yards     100%     100%     0 TD to 0 INT     150.4 QB Rating

Team Notes     As with Kansas, Minnesota has had one man leading the show.  That's not a bad thing.  Weber, as with Reesing for KU, has added consistency to a team that couldn't have handled inconsistency at QB.  The Gophers have a very nice 62.6% completion percentage and are +6 on TDs vs INTs.  Weber is a mobile QB that is second on the team in rushing yards, so he'll add an extra element for the Jayhawks to focus on. 

Rushing:

DeLeon Eskridge     170 carries     652 yards     3.8 ypc     7 TDs

Adam Weber     115 carries     202 yards     1.8 ypc     4 TDs

Shady Salamon     43 carries     174 yards     4.0 ypc     3 TDs

Duane Bennet     32 carries     140 yards     4.4 ypc     2 TDs

Team Notes      Notice something similar with these stats?  Much like KU, Minnesota has relied heavily on the pass and used the run more as a secondary measure to keep defenses from playing too soft against the pass.  As a team, they have only 1308 yards on the ground, however they also have 18 rushing TDs.  They use their ground attack well...where it counts most. 

Receiving:

Eric Decker     76 receptions     925 yards     6 TDs

Ben Kuznia     31 rec     310 yards     0 TD

Jack Simmons     32 rec     300 yards     2 TDs

Brandon Green     18 rec     260 yards     1 TD

Team Notes     The Golden Gophers have used 17 different receivers in 238 receptions for 2590 yards and 14 TDs.  The pass is their main weapon to move the ball downfield and Decker is by far their biggest target.  They have the 57th rated passing game but is facing the 114th rated pass defense. 

What's it all mean Bassil?

For fans of the pass game, this is a game for you.  Neither of these teams can (or do) run the ball well, and both rely heavily on a mobile QB to get them where they're going.  Kansas has a wider array of receivers to throw to, while Minnesota does a better job of punching it in with their ground game.  It'll be an interesting match against two 7-5 teams needing to end their seasons with something positive to carry into next year.

What will likely happen:

There will be a lot of back and forth in this one.  Kansas has a better rush defense and that may prove to be big when Minnesota decides to try and punch it in on the ground.  If Minnesota can get back to playing ball like they did when they burst out to a 7-1 start, they'll be extremely tough for the Jayhawks to beat.  They lived and breathed by turnovers.  If they can do that again, they could walk away with it.  If not, Kansas will get the upper hand on depth at the receiver position. 

My Pick:  Minnesota 27 - Kansas 24

Actual:  Kansas 42 - Minnesota 21

Wow, what a start to the game!  Kansas hit immediately for a touchdown on the first play of the game, but on Minnesota's first offensive play, they answered back with a huge play that set up the tying score.  They balanced that out with a nice run attack that slowed down the action and kept KU's defense on the field.  Unfortunately, their defense couldn't stop KU on the other side.  Yup...it was a great first quarter.  Then things went south quickly.  Reesing/Briscoe tore Minny apart in the second quarter to go into the half up 28-14.  The third quarter wasn't much better.  KU picked up 7 more points through the air while Minny managed to blow a great first and goal situation.  Minnesota's O-Line was beat all day long and their run game sputtered to a halt after the first quarter.  Zero big turnovers to help the Gophers out.  They were outplayed....simple as that.

OUTBACK BOWL

 

January 1, 2009  11:00 AM  ESPN

Iowa vs. South Carolina

The Statistics:

Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4)

Passing:

Ricky Stanzi     137 completions     235 attempts     1809 yards     58.3%     13 TDs to 7 INTs     135.3 QB Rating

Jake Christensen     36 comp     63 att     396 yards     57.1%     2 TDs to 1 INT     117.2 QB Rating

Team Notes     Stanzi has undergone some pretty nasty growing pains as the new starter of the Hawkeye offense.  For their part, the rest of the Hawkeyes have stood behind him, but it's come at a cost.  Iowa is a run first offense, but Stanzi is very good on the move and getting better in the pocket. 

Rushing:

Shonn Greene     278 carries     1729 yards     6.2 ypc     17 TDs

Jewel Hampton     79 carries     409 yards     5.2 ypc     7 TDs

Paki O'Meara     21 carries     62 yards     3.0 ypc     2 TDs

Team Notes     Greene is the second leading rusher in the nation in terms of yards.  He's the only back in the nation to have run for over 100 yards in all 12 games this year.  Don't think that he's the only threat though.  Hampton, despite being a freshman, has shown that he's capable of hurting defenses too.  Greene is the key, though.  If anyone ever figures out how to stop him, they'll have largely stopped Iowa's offense.  The problem is...no one (including Penn State) has figured out how to do that yet...

Receiving:

Derrell Johnson-Koulianos     43 receptions     621 yards     3 TDs

Andy Brodell     33 receptions     506 yards     4 TDs

Brandon Myers     30 rec     392 yards     4 TDs

Allen Reisner     11 rec     200 yards     1 TD

Trey Stross     12 rec     103 yards     0 TD

Team Notes     Iowa has used 16 receivers to get 174 catches for 2215 yards and 15 TDs.  Despite Greene's dominance, Iowa's gaining ground in terms of becoming a balanced team.  DJK (his name's too long to type twice) has stepped up late in the season to become the Hawkeyes' leading receiver.  Brodell, however has been solid and Myers adds a big threat from the TE position.  Unfortunately for the Hawkeyes, they're facing the 3rd rated pass defense.  They likely won't turn to the pass until/unless they have to...though they like to use the play action pass quite a lot.

South Carolina Gamecocks (7-5)

Passing:

Chris Smelley     153 completions     271 attempts     1743 yards     56.5%     13 TDs to 15 INTs     115.2 QB Rating

Stephen Garcia     56 comp     104 att     753 yards     53.8%     6 TDs to 5 INTs     124.1 QB Rating

Tommy Beecher     14 comp     26 att     126 yards     53.8%     0 TD to 4 INTs     63.8 QB Rating

Team Notes     Garcia will get the start for the Gamecocks in the bowl game.  He'll have a tough road in front of him.  South Carolina's rush offense is terrible so he'll have to shoulder the load of the Gamecock's production.  He'll have to turn around an offense that has given up 24 INTs, while gaining only 19 TDs.  Iowa's defense ranks 41st, but boasts 20 INTs with a TD, and they'll be hungry.

Rushing:

Mike Davis     160 carries     571 yards     3.6 ypc     3 TDs

Eric Baker     43 carries     183 yards     4.3 ypc     0 TDs

Stephen Garcia     65 carries     173 yards     2.7 ypc     2 TDs

Brian Maddox     29 carries     104 yards     3.6 ypc     1 TD

Team Notes     South Carolina has amassed only 1190 yards and 7 TDs on 397 carries.  Unlike Iowa, South Carolina has a terrible run game.  They'll find that avenue hard sledding against Iowa's 10th rated rush defense.

Receiving:

Kenny McKinley     48 receptions     556 yards     4 TDs

Jared Cook     35 rec     550 yards     2 TD

Moe Brown     27 rec     368 yards     1 TD

Jason Barnes     22 rec     306 yards     2 TDs

Weslye Saunders     15 rec     208 yards     3 TDs

Team Notes     These guys will have to step up big.  SC has spread the ball around to 15 receivers for 2622 yards and 19 TDs.  They'll find it easy to pick holes in Iowa's cover 2 defense, but difficult to break open on the long route.  Close to the goal, they'll have to get inventive.

What's it all mean Bassil?

Interestingly this game pits the 12th and 13th rated defenses in terms of total yards allowed.  That may be a little misleading, however.  SC hasn't faced anyone like Shonn Greene and Iowa tends to give up pretty big yards through the air.  Each team sees an opporunity to put points on the other team and each one sees an opportunity to shut the other down. 

Iowa has a strong defense...so does South Carolina....just not necessarily in the same areas, and each teams strength is pitted against the other's weakness. 

What will likely happen:

When South Carolina has the ball, they'll move it with relative ease.  That is, as long as Garcia can lead this offense.  When Iowa has the ball, Greene will continually pound away at them and by the second quarter he'll be closing in on 100 yards.  The second half will be all Iowa as they control the clock and continually put points on the board.  Iowa's scoring D will be strong enough to turn the Gamecocks away often enough to allow Greene to do his thing.

My Pick:  Iowa 34 - South Carolina 20

Actual:  Iowa 31 - South Carolina 10

Iowa shut SC out until the 4th quarter.  Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers.  South Carolina started the game throwing an interception and things never got any better for them.  Iowa's coverage was more than adequate and the play at the line was outstanding.  Shonn Greene got his 13th 100+ yard game and Ricky Stanzi played very well, showing his speed on his feet a few times.  As the game got away from SC, the talk in the booth turned to whether or not Kirk Ferentz would return as the head coach or move on to the NFL.  Whle that's been talked about every year since he turned the program around, this year there MIGHT be a little more to it than before.  That'll be something for Hawk fans to keep their eyes on.  In this one, Iowa just outclassed SC all the way around the board. 

I went 2-2 for this segment of my picks.  Unfortunately, the Big Ten only went 1-3.  The "big bowls" are teeing up now, so I'll head over to the second segment of my picks to continue.  So far it's not looking like a great bowl season for the Big Ten.

That's it from here for tonight.  I'll come back tomorrow and finish with the last three bowls.

Be sure to check out SEABASS' picks here.  His are a bit different than mine and definitely worth a read.

PSPKNINE should have his up before long too.  Check him out!

Happy Holidays to all.  I sincerely hope you get the opportunity to spend quality time with your families and friends and enjoy each other's company. 

Peace.