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Northwestern
Last year, the Wildcats were just a few plays away from winning their first bowl game since 1949. Losing in overtime to Missouri is still nothing to be embarrassed about. Northwestern made great strides in becoming a player in the Big Ten conference race. Northwestern will have to fill a lot of positions to continue their rise through the Big Ten ranks.
The big difference between Northwestern's retooling and other teams doing the same? Head Coach Pat Fitzgerald. No, he doesn't walk on water. No, he's not the Messiah. Well...he may be for Wildcat football. Fitz has a no-nonsense approach and has been teaching his players to "expect success". That's a far cry different from Northwestern programs of the past that seemed to pray that they just didn't come in last. He's brought back a belief that this program really can hang with the big boys. He's had some time to work with the boys that will have to step up this year, and I believe he'll have them ready to do just that.
As for their schedule, I'd love to see some tough opponents on the docket. I'd like to see this program taking on ranked opponents rather than powder puffs. Wins over big opponents equals more respect than big wins over small opponents.
The Schedule
September 5 - vs Towson - Who??? Dadgumit fellas, where are you getting these opponents? What, did the Big Ten suddenly become the prep league for high school teams to test their prowess before entering college? What the heck? Yeah, I'm not happy at all about this game.
September 12 - vs Eastern Michigan - This is a fairly common Big Ten opponent this year. I can't complain about it too much. At least they're an FBS team.
September 19 - @ Syracuse - As I mentioned in an earlier post, Syracuse is getting back to "basics". If they get really good at those basics, they could be an interesting opponent. I don't think so, though. Northwestern's style should confuse them. Still, this isn't a terrible game.
September 26 - vs Minnesota - I don't mind this game at all. Actually, I like it a lot. Minnesota is going through some big changes, and are breaking in a brand new stadium. They should be a decent opponent for the Wildcats at home.
October 3 - @ Purdue - Nice road date. I'm not seeing anything yet to really push the Wildcats, though.
October 10 - vs Miami (OH) - What? You're going back to play a team like Miami of Ohio now?? So, we're in the second week of October, and Northwestern has yet to play a truly competitive team. Was somebody expecting a collapse this year?
October 17 - @ Michigan State - Finally, an opponent that can really test Northwestern's metle. Too bad this one's on the road. I might pick it differently if it were at home.
October 24 - vs Indiana - This could be pretty good. I expect improvements for Indiana. I don't know how many improvements, but improvements all the same. This could be a pretty good game, for a half, at least.
October 31 - vs Penn State - I like this game being played in Evanston. This should be one of the better games all season. Northwestern may well give the Nittany Lions a run for their money.
November 7 - @ Iowa - Last year's game was very close, but Northwestern pulled out the win. This year they travel to Iowa City to see if they can make it a little more decisive. It won't be easy, but it will definitely be possible. This is another good week for Northwestern. Win or lose, this game is another opportunity to show how improved they are over the "Wildcats of old".
November 14 - @ Illinois - This is a fantastic game in my book. Illinois should be improved over last year. The Wildcats will be improved, especially on defense. I think this will be a tough match.
November 21 - vs Wisconsin - Good way to end the season: at home and against a team that's beatable. This game will decide just which bowl the Wildcats go to.
Okay...so what?
Well, in a lot of ways, I'm disappointed in the Wildcat schedule. For a team that went 9-4 last season, and believes they're going to be even better this year, I'd like to see tougher opponents up front. I don't get teams like Northwestern playing FCS teams like Towson. They don't really help much for BCS consideration and a team on the rise should start thinking about such things. I can deal with Eastern Michigan, especially early in the season, as well as Syracuse and Miami (OH), though I'd rather see Miami in place of Townson. Then they could schedule a much tougher team in that week 6 slot. Maybe there was no one open at that time, who knows?
After that point, however, they have a pretty decent schedule. Indiana's definitely beatable, but will hopefully provide enough of a challenge to keep them sharp. Michigan State, Penn State, Iowa and Illinois will test the Wildcats and Wisconsin is a good home date to close out the regular season and give a final push towards a bowl worthy of having them.
All-in-all, it's not terrible, but I just can't get over the first six weeks. I think it'll hurt them in the long run.
Way too early prediction
Towson, Eastern Michigan, and Syracuse shouldn't be much more than practice-type scrimmages for Northwestern. I give them all three with no problems. Minnesota might be tough game, if it were on the road in their new stadium, but it's not. At Evanston, I'll give this one to Northwestern also, as well as the follow-up date at Purdue. Miami of Ohio was only 2-10 last year and shouldn't provide much challenge to this Northwestern team. They'll be perfect at the halfway point of the season.
Then comes Michigan State, on the road. I think Northwestern will have a good showing in this game, but I'm not so sure they'll win it. This is where the first half of the season may hurt them. Michigan State will be night-and-day better than the opponents they've faced so far. The Wildcats will be accustomed to that level of play and won't be ready for someone like the Spartans. MSU wins this one.
As I said before, I think Indiana will be better than last year. Just how much better? Not enough to beat Northwestern, though they could make it a decent game. That leaves the Wildcats at 7-1 overall and 3-1 in the Big Ten when they host Penn State.
Now that they've had to face at least one real tough team, and given the respect Penn State has in the conference, Northwestern should be much better prepared for this game than they were for Michigan State. This could be a pretty tough battle, at least through the first three quarters. I think PSU starts to pull away in the fourth quarter, but not by a lot.
Then the Wildcats travel to Iowa. This one's tough for me to call. Who will be the better team? That depends a lot on what Iowa's able to do with their defensive line now that King and Kroul are gone. Don't kid yourself, though, their offense will be better than last year. I'm giving this one to the Hawkeyes for two reasons: 1) they want revenge for that very narrow loss last year, and 2) it's in Iowa City.
That makes NW 7-3 overall and 3-3 in the Big Ten.
The match at Illinois is another tough one to call. Everyone seemed to think that Illinois was going to be powerful last year, with Juice Williams leading the Illini to a New Year's bowl. Instead, they folded like a house of cards and were home before December even rolled in. I predict they'll be better this year. That this one is at Champaign/Urbana is enough for me to give them the win.
Northwestern then ends their season at home against Wisconsin. The Badgers had big problems last year and I'm not sure they'll get those issues under control this year. Even if they do, I think Northwestern's defense will be plenty strong enough to stifle the Badger attack and their offense will confuse them. Northwestern will end their season with a nice home win.
Final tally: Northwestern will go 8-4 on the regular season, 4-4 in the Big Ten and will get a decent bowl. I'm sure plenty of people would disagree with me on several points. Iowa could go to Northwestern. So, too, could Illinois. For that matter, the Wildcats could shock Michigan State and end the season 10-2 and get a New Year's Day bowl. It's possible. I honestly don't take Iowa to win because of a "homer pick", though I'm not above doing so. I really think Iowa will be improved over last year. That game will be an exciting one, though. Also, as close as I came to changing my mind about the Illinois game and taking NW to win, I stand behind my picks thus far and stuck with Illinois.
In the end, I think Northwestern's schedule hurts them more than helps. They're not getting the quality opponents up front to prepare them for the ones they'll face in the second half of the season. While that may boost their record, I think they'd fair just as well, if not better, if they had someone up front to push them.
Even with a record that's technically worse than last years, I think Northwestern will still be improved and will be well positioned to be really tough in 2010.
Next up....Iowa.
Way Too Early Look at Big Ten Schedules (Part 7)
Tuesday, April 14, 2009, 06:02 PM EST
[General]
Tags:
Way Too Early Look at Big Ten Schedules (Part 6)
Monday, April 13, 2009, 04:35 PM EST
[General]
Wisconsin
This is one of the more depressing articles I have to write. The Badgers had such high hopes for last season, and got all the benefit of the doubt in the early part of the season. Then, all of a sudden, they weren't any good at all. They couldn't tackle on defense and offensively they were disorganized. They couldn't seem to get a pass game going and their rush attack wasn't effective enough to carry the team. Obviously there are some changes in the plans for this season, most of them not necessarily by their choice. They've lost a slew of starters and will be relying on younger players to step up and deliver. This year will be a big indicator of how good Bret Bielema is as the Badger head coach. A good schedule might help Wisconsin's hopes of returning to a bowl game. It's going to have to be nearly perfect, though, if Wisconsin can't reinvent themselves into a competitive team. The Schedule September 5 - vs Northern Illinois - This is a pretty good opponent to open the season against. They'll give the Badgers a good opportunity to get a little experience for their new players against a team they should easily beat. September 12 - vs Fresno State - Aside from Boise State, the WAC hasn't exactly been a powerhouse conference and even Boise can't be classified as a powerhouse. Not even close. Fresno State was a little ways down the pecking order. This should be just another chance to gain some experience and work on their flaws. September 19 - vs Wofford - Who? Doggonit, I have a hard time keeping up with these FCS teams. There are enough FBS teams to keep track of, let alone these little guys. Let's just ditto the first comment... September 26 - vs Michigan State - I don't know if Wisconsin will have a fighting chance in this game or not, but it certainly helps to get it at home. It's not the way I'd like to enter Big Ten play, but you've gotta face these teams sometime, right? October 3 - @ Minnesota - Winnable game, even on the road, even if Wisconsin '09 is much like Wisconsin '08. So far, I like what I'm seeing. October 10 - @ Ohio State - I actually like this. If I thought Wisconsin had any real chance of beating OSU this season, I'd rather they were at home. But I don't believe they do. If you're going to have a game you're almost certain to lose, you may as well do it on the road and save home dates for teams you've got a solid chance to beat. I know....any given Saturday...not really folks. October 17 - vs Iowa - This beats the heck out of having a road date against PSU here. The last couple of teams we've talked about had the two big ones on consecutive weeks. There are enough questions about Iowa to make this game intriguing at this early point. I still don't think they'll beat the Hawkeyes, but having them at home could make a big difference. October 31 - vs Purdue - The dreaded "week back" game. They've had a week off to rest. The good news is, they get to return to face Purdue...a team they should beat with their eyes closed and half the squad hung over. I like the timing of the bye week and love the opponent they get to face upon their return. November 7 - @ Indiana - Another very beatable team. Things are looking good. Too bad this one's on the road. November 14 - vs Michigan - This is a great one to have at home. The problem is, I think Michigan might be a bit more than Wisconsin realizes this year. November 21 - @ Northwestern - We're getting down to brass tacks now. Either Wisconsin's bowl eligible, or they're close. They've had a pretty good schedule up until now to help them out. Northwestern won't be an easy team to pick up a win against, especially on the road. December 5 - @ Hawaii - Well, it looks like Wisconsin gets a bowl game even if they don't get a bowl game. I love this late date. Unfortunately, I'm not sure it's going to really matter. The good news is, they get a winter date in a warm, tropical climate. Okay....so what? I really like this schedule for Wisconsin. It's pretty light up front with UNI, Fresno State, and Wofford. Michigan State will be tough no matter what time of season they face them, and they're bound to face some tough opponents throughout the season. This is, after all, the Big Ten. Minnesota is winnable. Ohio State isn't, and like I said above, I actually like that they face them on the road. May as well save the winnable games, like Purdue and Michigan for home dates. Iowa is a question mark, as is Northwestern, but they're spread out and only the Iowa game comes on the heels of a truly tough showdown. The pacing of the schedule couldn't be much better, as far as I'm concerned. Michigan State and Ohio State are close to one another, but not too close. The rest of the season could really go either way, if Wisconsin's able to put together any kind of consistency. I definitely love the Hawaii date, particularly if Wisconsin does manage to become bowl eligible. That extra week of competition is important, in my opinion. Way too early prediction Here's where it gets tough, especially in light of what I've already predicted for other teams. Wisconsin opens the season well, beating all three of their opening opponents. I don't think they'll get past Michigan State, though. I'd call Minnesota a toss-up, but I've already handed the Gophers this one, and I'll stick with them. Ohio State isn't winnable, no matter when or where they play them. So, the first half of their season, I have Wisconsin going 3-3 overall, 0-3 in the Big Ten. Iowa might be beatable for the Badgers, but I don't think so. I think the Hawkeyes will actually be one of the tougher teams in the conference. Purdue is a win, but I've already given Indiana the win. I am really wanting to re-think that one, and may before the season starts. For right now I'll stick with what I've already said and give it to the Hoosiers. It might be my "what happened?!" game. Michigan will be more than Wisconsin's defense can handle, as will Northwestern, though both of these games could be pretty close. Finally, Wisconsin will travel to sunny Hawaii to face the Rainbows on December 5th. This will be a win for Wisconsin and they may as well treat it like their bowl game. I think it's the closest they're going to get. It's a warm location in winter and far away from home. Enjoy a good win in the islands. Final score for Wisconsin this year is 5-7 overall and only 1-7 in the Big Ten. Again, I really struggle with that conference record, but I see Wisconsin having to do a lot of growing and so many other teams in the conference are looking better than last year. Unfortunately, Wisconsin may have one of the worst conference records (if not the worst), but they won't have the worst overall record, thanks in no small part to the opening of their season. BB will be catching some serious flack when this one wraps, deserved or not. Next up....Northwestern Tags:
Way Too Early Look at Big Ten Schedules (Part 5)
Monday, April 13, 2009, 01:09 AM EST
[General]
Minnesota
When I talked about the changes Illinois was making in my last post, the big issue was with the shuffling of the coaching staff. I had to do a double-take when researching Minnesota because I thought I may have made a mistake and had written about the wrong team. The Golden Gophers of Minnesota are going through some nearly identical changes on their coaching staff as Illinois. They're overhauling their coordinator and some of their assistant positions as well. Even though Minnesota is bringing back some of their key playmakers of a year ago, they may look like a team going through a rebuilding process. How well the players adjust to their new leadership won't be seen for a little while yet. Since we're talking about schedules, what kind of schedule could Minnesota benefit from? In my opinion, Minnesota needs a soft enough schedule up front to work out their issues and tough enough from middle-to-end that we get to find out how tough they really are. If Minnesota wants to go back to a bowl game, they're going to have to get their act together. This won't be an easy road. The Schedule September 5 - @ Syracuse - Syracuse went just 3-9 last season and 1-6 in the Big East. This year, Doug Marrone is taking the Orangemen back to basics....all the way back. On one hand, that's good for the Gophers. This is a team without a ton of talent that is having to start from scratch. On the other hand, this is a team that may learn how to do more with less...something Minnesota really doesn't need right now. September 12 - vs Air Force - The Falcons were 8-5 last year and 5-3 in the Mountain West. That's not bad, considering the three teams ahead of them in the conference were Utah, TCU, and BYU. This is a team that has found a spark and could give Minnesota some trouble, if they're not careful. September 19 - vs California - Cal went 9-4 last year, 6-3 in the PAC 10. This will be a big test for the Gophers. If Adam Webber and Eric Decker both stay healthy, and Minnesota improves on defense, they stand a chance. It's good to get a higher profile opponent at home too. September 26 - @Northwestern - Once again, I come to that big question: what will Northwestern look like in '09? After facing California on home terf, I'm not sure what Minnesota will look like...or feel like. There are worse ways to start out Big Ten play. October 3 - vs Wisconsin - What to do, what to do. This will be a battle of two teams trying not to let happen whatever happened last season. It'll come down to whoever was more successful at righting the ship. For my part, I can't help but wonder if Minnesota doesn't have a little more to work with than Wisconsin? October 10 - vs Purdue - I won't reiterate what I've said twice already about the state of Purdue football right now. Suffice to say that this is a good game for Minnesota, especially at home. October 17 - @ Penn State - I would be incredibly surprised if Minnesota is up to beating Penn State on the road. Their offense will have to be clicking and they'll have had to figure out a lot on defense, or they're just not going to stand a chance. October 24 - @ Ohio State - Ouch! The top two teams from last year on back-to-back dates and both are on the road? Who didn't like Minnesota when they made this schedule? October 31 - vs Michigan State - Well...Happy Flippin' Halloween to you too! Make that three-for-three! Granted, it's yet to be seen whether or not MSU will still be among the top three in the conference, but that's still a tough break. Thankfully, this one's at home, though I doubt it will be of little consolation when the final whistle blows. November 7 - vs Illinois - Illinois is an interesting monster. The tools are there for them to be a very good football team. The question will be in how well they use those tools this season. This is a pretty tough stretch for the Gophers. November 14 - vs South Dakota State - Okay...why wasn't this team scheduled on week 3 instead of California? Probably because scheduling Cal after four tough conference games wouldn't have been good either. If they're not bowl eligible, but are within a game, this is the one to put them over the top. November 21 - @ Iowa - Do you think Minnesota has forgotten Iowa's 55-0 stomping of them in their final game in the dome? I don't think so. They also haven't forgotten the little bathroom incident either, but that's another story. Iowa has some retooling to do, but I don't think those changes will be as major as they may appear on paper. If anything, it may be a more balanced Iowa team that Minnesota will have to beat on the road. It's a rivalry game, though, and anything can happen in a rivalry game. Okay....so what? Looking at Minnesota as a bowl team from a year ago, the start to this season isn't so bad. That is, if you can forget that they folded catastrophically over the last five games of the year and were dreadfully exposed. They get some teams up front that are definitely beatable, in Syracuse and Air Force. I like California being on the schedule if you think you're bowl material again. They may not necessarily be a pre-season Top 25, but they carry enough respect to add strength to the schedule. The first part of the conference schedule isn't bad either. Northwestern, Wisconsin and Purdue are all beatable as well. Minnesota could be looking very attractive if they can put together some good performances up to this point. The problem is, remember last year? They looked very good through their first seven games. Then they had a melt-down that Kraft cheese would be proud of. The latter half of their schedule is where the men will be separated from the boys. Road dates at Penn State and Ohio State with a follow-up against Michigan State is just killer. If Minnesota is worth their salt, they'll at least give respectable showings, though I seriously doubt they'll get any wins. Illinois provides a solid opponent, but one that might be beatable. Playing FCS South Dakota State is a gift from the gods, but traveling to Iowa isn't...unless Iowa assumes another 55-0 thrashing is inevitable, in which case Minnesota could end with a nice little revenge victory (and one that could also help them get to a bowl to boot). Way too early prediction Syracuse offers Minnesota a chance right away to face a FBS team that will help build their numbers toward bowl eligibility. They also offer a chance for them to get a bad start to their season if they don't take 'Cuse seriously. Don't underestimate a team that "gets back to basics". It can turn a mediocre team into a competitive one if they can get real good at those basics. Still, I think Minnesota opens with a good road win. Then comes Air Force, which could be trouble. I can hear you now: "Air Force? Really?" Yeah, really. I get that the Mountain West doesn't really get a lot of respect, but they've also proven to be pretty "stringy" in the past, and the Falcons held their own last year. I'm torn as to how to call this game. I'll give it to Minnesota, but I'm not really sure I want to. I think California will be too much for Minnesota to handle. They may initiate their new stadium with a win over AF, but they'll suffer their first loss in that new stadium the very next week. That makes Minnesota 2-1 when they enter conference play. Northwestern was something of an "up and down" team last year. Will they be more consistent this year? I'm a big fan of Coach Fitzgerald and think he's moving that program in the right direction. It's in their house; it's theirs to win and they will. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is really confusing for me. They just couldn't seem to get it together last year. It sounds to me like Wisconsin is in serious "rebuid" mode, so I'll throw Minnesota a bone and call them to win that one. I may change my mind on that one as time goes by and I see how well their youngsters step up to the plate. Purdue is a win...no question in my mind right now. That'll make the Gophers 4-2 overall, 2-1 in the conference. Then the wheels fall off the cart. Minnesota gets the worst possible combination up next. They're on the road to both Penn State and Ohio State. It's tough enough getting both teams on consecutive weeks, but to play them both on the road is just a nightmare. Any team in the conference would consider themselves lucky to split these two games, but Minnesota may be lucky just to survive them. Actually, let me rephrase: the nightmare comes on Halloween. How appropriate, eh? After traveling on the road to face the two toughest teams in the conference (and yes, they still are the two toughest in the conference), they have to come back home to face the third toughest team in the conference. I know, there may be some debate as to whether or not MSU is really that good this year. I'm with you on that. Until we get a little closer to kickoff, however, I'm still keeping them in the three-hole. This is just a brutal stretch of the season, no matter how you look at it. I've got Minnesota going winless through these three. That leaves them at 4-5 overall, 2-4 in the conference, and suddenly not looking so tough. As I indicated in my last post, Illinois has all the weapons to be pretty good and I think they will be. I've already handed this one to Illinois and I stand by it. South Dakota State shouldn't beat Minnesota. Unless the Gophers are having to bring in their water boy (no, not the Water Boy) to help fill in for injured players, they won't. So, Minnesota will be 5-6 overall, and 2-5 in the conference with one game left. Which means (big grin on my face right now), they have to travel to Iowa City, to face the fourth (or fifth depending on how you look at it) toughest team in the conference in their home stadium. With a bowl appearance on the line to boot. Revenge? Minnesota will have every reason under the sun to want to throttle the Hawkeyes. They've had to hear about that 55-0 score all through bowl season and through some of the pre-season talk already. They really want to erase that from people's memory. They really want to get back to a bowl game. They really don't like to lose to the Iowa Hawkeyes. This is one rivalry game that could trump all the others. But there's no way I'm picking against the Hawkeyes in this one. Their offense should be much more balanced and their defense could be just as stifling as it was last season. All I know is, this could be one helluva game to watch! Finally tally: I have Minnesota at 5-7 overall and 2-6 in the conference. I think they've got the talent offensively to make it back to a bowl game, but I feel another meltdown coming. From October 17 on, I think the team gets thoroughly derailed and won't have time to get that train back on the tracks. I hope everyone had a Happy Easter and got to spend good time with their families and friends. Coming up....Wisconsin Tags:
Way Too Early Look at Big Ten Schedules (Part 4)
Saturday, April 11, 2009, 02:08 PM EST
[General]
Illinois
What happened to Illinois last year? They went from Rose Bowl participants in January 2008, to a 5-7 2008 fall campaign. Ron Zook probably scoured over every piece of game film he could get his hands on to determine just where things went so wrong. With several changes and shuffles to the coaching staff, it appears that Zook has some ideas. Granted, not all of the changes were necessarily Zook's idea. Some of his staff left to take positions elsewhere. With a strong crew of returning starters on offense, Illinois should be much better than last year. It's the defense that's seeing a lot of new faces, and will need to come together. This is a team that needs a schedule that's both tough enough to give them some respect in the polls, but soft enough to give their team time to gel under their new coaches and allow the new defensive faces time to meld with the program. The Schedule September 5 - vs Missouri - I like this opener. Missouri has been pretty good for a few years now. For a team that should be pretty good themselves, this is the kind of opener that demands a level of respect, particularly because many of their peers are opting to take FCS opponents early on to pad their stats. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how you look at it), Missouri is going to be in rebuilding mode this year, having lost 14 starters. Still, it's a tough, but good way to open the season. September 12 - vs Illinois State - Now that they've gotten a good contest under their belts, the Illini are taking a powder puff game. I don't begrudge them this. What's coming is pretty tough, so this is a good chance to build on whatever success they may have had against Missouri, and work on the things that didn't go well. September 26 - @ Ohio State - The Illini take a week off after beating on Illinois State to prepare for this one. This is a very tough way to begin the conference season. Going on the road to face the Buckeyes is never easy. Doing so as the first road game of the year is exceptionally tough. The Buckeye defense will test the Illini offense more than it has been to this point. The real test will come for the Illini defense, though. October 3 - vs Penn State - This is the toughest imaginable start to the conference season. Illinois gets two of the three toughest teams right up front. At least this one's at home. But it doesn't get any better.... October 10 - vs Michigan State - Somebody didn't like Illinois when they were setting up this schedule. These are the top three teams from last year, all back-to-back-to-back. Granted, MSU and PSU may not be quite as good this year as they were last. That won't be seen for a while yet. Still, I can't imagine either of them dropping off too far. Illinois gets zero chance to build momentum in the early part of their season. Even if they manage to win half of these games, it'll be a very tough road to get there. October 17 - @ Indiana - Finally, Illinois catches a break! Indiana may be improved and it may be a road game, but I think Illinois will be well prepared for this one - if they're not too banged up. They shouldn't be, as Big Ten football just isn't as smash-mouthed as it used to be. As long as their players stay healthy, this should be a chance to flex their muscles and pick up a good conference win. October 24 - @ Purdue - As I wrote yesterday, Purdue is in shambles. By this time, the Illini should really be hitting their stride. Mid-October is when their season really takes off. After struggling though the "Big Three", they get two teams that are very beatable, even though they face them on the road. After that start, I like this. October 31 - vs Michigan - Here's where things get a little sticky. Will they overlook a much-improved Michigan based on the Wolverines' last couple of seasons? Will they get too comfortable after the road trips to Indiana and Purdue? This is a winnable game, if they keep their heads about them. It's a nice little bump in the schedule to keep Illinois honest. November 7 - @ Minnesota - This game could be a real shootout and that's why I like it. If Minnesota is healthy and Illinois is healthy, this could be a Big XII-type showdown - very little defense, but a ton of offense. It would have been nice to spread out the OSU, PSU, MSU games a little and maybe have one of them down here somewhere. Still, this is a good matchup and a good place for it. November 14 - vs Northwestern - This is where Illinois ends their Big Ten campaign - one week before much of the rest of the conference. The opponent is perfectly suited for Illinois. They'll have similar offenses and both should be jockeying for bowl positions. November 28 - @ Cincinnati - This is a very interesting date. First, Illinois takes a second week off; something not often seen among the Big Ten ranks. Second, despite finishing their conference schedule a week early, they're playing past the final date of most of their peers. It's an interesting twist. Lastly, Cincinnati could be a close mirror to Illinois. Both should have potent offenses, and both will be retooling their defenses. Cincinnati will offer a very tough challenge for Illinois. December 5 - vs Fresno State - FINALLY! Someone from the Big Ten finally ventures into the month of December for a game that isn't a bowl. Okay, it may not be the first time it's happened, but it's rare. Since the Big Ten is making no push toward a conference championship game, it's nice to see the teams pushing their schedules into the time frame that others are playing their conference championships. I've always been annoyed that the Big Ten ended their season a full two weeks before everyone else. The only question I have is: does Fresno State (a California team) realize how cold it can get in Illinois in December? Okay....so what? I'm intrigued by this schedule. Whether or not this schedule is really a good one will depend on just how improved Illinois is over last season. It's probable that Missouri, Ohio State, and Penn State will all be ranked in the AP Top 25 when Illinois plays them. It's also likely that Michigan State will be as well. If Northwestern can earn their way back into the Top25, and Cincinnati does as well, Illinois will have a pretty respectable schedule in terms of strength. The question there will be: is Illinois up for the challenge of having half their schedule against ranked teams? There are several parts of the schedule that I don't like. I don't like a team that's trying to rebound from a poor season having to face the top three teams in the conference on consecutive dates. I particularly don't like that it happens at the very beginning of the conference season. Illinois starts with a tough opponent, has a soft week, a week off, and then BOOM! They get hit with three of the toughest games they play all year. It could potentially be a season breaker in just three weeks from the end of September to mid October. Actually, I don't like the flow of the season at all. After the "vicious three", Illinois gets the next four games against teams they could, and should, beat. Then it's back into a couple of potentially very difficult games and ends on a frigid home date. The season is chalk full of peaks and valleys and gives the young defense little time to find a rhythm. The Illini miss playing Iowa this year, but that may be a good thing for both teams. Iowa was better than Illinois last year and still dropped one to them and the Illini don't need another tough opponent on their schedule this year. The Hawkeyes may be beatable for Illinois, but they could also be a real trap game for them. It's better that they're not on the schedule this season. They also miss Wisconsin, which is too bad. I think Illinois' offense coud pick apart the Badger "D" and give them another conference win. Way too early prediction Given that Missouri is doing some rebuilding of their own, the first game is tough to predict. I think it'll be a very interesting shootout, if Illinois can get their offense into rhythm early on. I don't think Illinois will get off to a good start here. Missouri will open their season with a road win. Illinois will easily rebound against Illinois State, however, to go 1-1. How will Illinois handle their week off? Last season, down weeks weren't necessarily good things for Big Ten teams. Penn State suffered their one-and-only regular season loss after a week off. Ohio State suffered a loss after their week off. So, too, did Michigan State. Can Illinois break that trend for this season? They certainly have a way of getting under OSU's skin. I don't think Illinois will have the tools on both sides of the ball to thwart the Buckeyes. In fact, I think this is only the beginning of a three game losing streak. The Michigan State game could possibly go either way, but I think Illinois will be reeling after facing OSU and PSU and won't have the confidence necessary to defeat the Spartans. At 1-4 overall, and winless in the Big Ten, Illinois won't be looking like a bowl caliber team when they travel to Bloomington to face the Hoosiers. This is where they'll need to turn their season around, and I think they'll shine. Indiana won't have the defensive prowess to slow down the Illini. Neither will Purdue on October 24th. Illinois will be 3-4 overall, and 2-3 in conference play when they host Michigan on Halloween. In my Michigan post, I already gave this game to Illinois and I'll stick with that. It should be a really tough game, though. That leaves Illinois back at .500, both overall and in conference play, for the first time since their first week off. The road date at Minnesota will give their defense another test, but their offense should keep them atop the Gophers. Northwestern, at home, is a tossup. I'll throw Illinois a bone here, simply because it's their final Big Ten game, they should be pushing for bowl eligibility, and it's at home. So, at 6-4, bowl eligible, 5-3 in Big Ten play, and on a five game winning streak, Illinois will travel to Cincinnati. First, they'll get another week off to rest and lick their wounds, if there are any. This is another one that's so hard to predict, but since I've prefaced this all along as being a "too early" prediction and added that I'll likely change some things along the road, I'll go ahead and make a call: Cincy wins. It could be a very entertaining game, though. Which leaves only Fresno State. Fresno wasn't that great last year, and doesn't look to be much better this year. Also, this is a home game. It's no stretch for me to give this one to Illinois. Again, I love that this game is being played in December. I love that any Big Ten team is pushing their schedule deeper into the season to match the rest of their out-of-conference competition. For the final tally, I have Illinois going 7-5 overall, 5-3 in the Big Ten and making a bowl appearance. One could easily argue that Illinois will steal one of the games against the "vicious three" and/or that they'll falter against Michigan. I wouldn't disagree. However, I could see both happening simultaneously, which would still leave Illinois with the same finishing record. At worst, I'll concede that they could be 6-6, and at best they could be 9-3 (if all the stars align in their favor). I'm sticking with 7-5. This could be a beautiful schedule, if the Illini are able to shore up their defense a little better and get their offense into a solid rhythm. It has enough strong opponents in there to garner a little respect. At the same time, most of October and November are winnable, so Illinois should have ample opportunity to bounce back from that rough stretch early on. With this schedule, Illinois should be able to make a strong statement that last year was just a fluke and they're still a solid Big Ten team. Next up on the agenda....Minnesota. Tags:
Way Too Early Look at Big Ten Schedules (Part 3)
Friday, April 10, 2009, 12:26 PM EST
[General]
Purdue Boilermakers
This is the toughest post I've had to write in this series yet. I know, that's not saying much, since I'm only on the third team out of eleven. The thing is, this one's tough because I don't want the outlook to be as bad as I'm afraid it is. Purdue is in transition from the Joe Tiller era to the Danny Hope era and there are going to be the usual growing pains. Coach Hope is making the kinds of improvements that will ultimately make the Boilermakers a threat in the Big Ten. At least it appears that he is. The problem is, everyone else around them is getting better too, and it's just too early for Hope's changes to make that much of an impact. Michigan will be better, as will Illinois. Minnesota and Northwestern are question marks, but the Wildcats have quite a ways to fall to drop to the level I'd consider them to be beatable for Purdue. Indiana appears to be making positive strides as well. Purdue needs some serious help from their schedule and it doesn't look like they're going to get it. The Schedule September 5 - vs Toledo - This is probably as good as it will get as far as season openers go. The Rockets went 3-9 last season, 2-6 in the MAC West and they're in rebuilding mode too. This should be a good opportunity for Purdue's new starters to get some game experience and build a little confidence. September 12 - @ Oregon - The Ducks were 10-3 last year (7-2 PAC 10) and are head-and-shoulders above Purdue in my book. This is going to be a real eye opener for the program as they face stiff competition, on the road, in only their second game. I'd love this game if Purdue wasn't in the first year of a "new program". As it is, I think this is not going to help their cause any. September 19 - vs Northern Illinois - The Huskies were 6-7 overall last year and 5-3 in the MAC West. They should be a little better this year than they were last. I like this game because the Huskies are good enough to pressure the Boilermakers, but not nearly as tough as the game against Oregon. Being at home is good for the Boilermakers. September 26 - vs Notre Dame - Another good home contest. Again, Dame will present a team that's tough enough to give Purdue some real pressure, but not so good as to completely blow them out of the water. Purdue should be able to find a few things to cheer about, even if it's not a win. October 3 - vs Northwestern - The Wildcats have some retooling to do as they graduated a fairly big class last year. Still, Coach Fitzgerald is smart and expects success. He's instilling the same attitude in his players and I don't think they'll fall off much, if at all. As far as conference openers go, it could definitely be a worse opponent, but could also be a lot better. October 10 - @ Minnesota - The Gophers will be at their new outdoor stadium this year. It's really unfortunate for Purdue that they have to see it first hand this year. This is a winnable game, but getting it on the road is just tough. October 17 - vs Ohio State - For Purdue's sake, I would have liked to have seen them miss this date altogether. They're not going to even be in the same league as the Buckeyes this year. Getting it at home may be a blessing of sorts, but in reality, I think it'll just be a chance to get stomped on their home turf. October 24 - vs Illinois - It's good to have back-to-back home dates at this point in the season. Purdue might well be reeling and need all the support they can get. October 31 - @ Wisconsin - I've been picking on Wisconsin quite a bit, but I can't pick on them here. The Badgers are going to be tough enough to give Purdue a problem no matter where they play. It's tough (again) that this one's on the road. November 7 - @ Michigan - I want to like this date. I really do. But I don't. It's another winnable game that has to be played on the road. November 14 - vs Michigan State - Just like the OSU date, I'm glad they're getting the tough games at home where they'll get a little help from the crowd. The key word here is "little". November 21 - @ Indiana - This is a good way to end a very tough season. Indiana will be beatable. It'll give the Boilermakers an opportunity to end their season on a good note. Unfortunately, they have to play this on the road. Okay....so what? I hate this schedule for the Boilermakers. They miss Penn State, and that's a very good thing. Unfortunately, they don't miss Ohio State as well. There are two big problems I see with this schedule. First, the Oregon date in week 2 is above Purdue right now. It would be great, if only Purdue were going to be more competitive. That they won't just makes that date bad for this year. It's a tough opponent they don't really need right now. Second, all of their tough games are at home, which is good, but their winnable games are on the road. I would gladly give them a better record than I'm going to if they could play some of those games at home. Actually, for this year it would just about be better to go ahead and play OSU and MSU on the road in exchange for getting Indiana and Minnesota at home. That might help sway their record to a more positive light. Way too early prediction As it is, I think Purdue's in a lot of trouble this year. They'll get by Toledo only to get stomped by Oregon. I'll toss them a win against Northern Illinois, but don't think they'll get past Notre Dame. If they do, it'll be more of an indicator of how poor ND is than of how improved Purdue is. The Boilermakers might give Northwestern an early run on the home court, but they'll still fall short. Minnesota is winnable, but being on the road, I can't give them a win here either. There's no way on earth Purdue will beat Ohio State. Illinois will be sufficiently improved to walk away from the Boilermakers in the second half of that game. From there the Boilermakers will travel to Wisconsin where they're going to face another team that's beatable, but not on the road. These are just the breaks. So....unfortunately....by the time Purdue gets through October, I see them at 2-7 overall and winless in the Big Ten (at 0-5). That leaves three games left to improve. Playing at Michigan is another tough break. RichRod will have enough of his players in place to really give Purdue some trouble and being at the Big House just seals the deal in my mind. Michigan State, better or worse than last year, is still a good year better than Purdue, which just leaves Indiana. I've struggled really hard with this game. I don't think Indiana will be appreciably better than Purdue. I don't think they'll be better at all, but again, this one's a road date for Purdue. Since I gave this game to Indiana on their post, I have to stick with that. That leaves Purdue at 2-10 on the season and 0-8 in the Big Ten. It's hard to pick any team to go winless in the conference, but I really do think Purdue is in shambles right now and everyone else is moving in the upward direction. As I said before, they have to play all of their winnable games on the road and get all their really tough games at home. That'll be the difference between a 2-10 team and a 4-8, or even 5-7 team. Purdue will be the basement dwellers of the Big Ten this year, and it won't even be close. Next up.....Illinois Tags:
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