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Penn State
Penn State had a "nearly" perfect season in 2008. They were a field goal away from going to the National Championship game. Well, at least they'd have been a very likely candidate. Joe Paterno proved that he still has what it takes to coach in the FBS at the highest level.
This year, the Lions will be replacing a few big names, but I'm not very worried about that. They've still got a ton of talent and should be extremely motivated to build on "what almost was". They could get a little help from their schedule, though. A team like this should have enough stiff competition to prove themselves. The conference will provide plenty of "winnable" games. They don't need a lot of those out of conference.
The Schedule
September 5 - vs Akron - right away, I don't like this. Yes, a team wants someone they can beat up front so they can shake off the rust and get a feel for what they need to work on. Still, this is beneath a team like Penn State.
September 12 - vs Syracuse - This team has the potential to push the Nittany Lions a little, if they can get their act together a little. I'd rather see this game happen right away on week 1, then move into much tougher competition.
September 19 - vs Temple - The Owls went 5-7 last year (4-4 in the MAC-East). By now, PSU should be taking on ranked opponents. I understand that you have to take what's available, but I hate this trend of "padding" the top of the schedule to get some wins, rather than facing tougher teams that might ruin a National Championship run right away.
September 26 - vs Iowa - Does Penn State feel like they've got a monkey on their backs where Iowa's concerned? Not only did the Hawkeyes ruin their perfect season last year, but they've beaten Penn State 7 of the last 9 years. This is one they've got to win; not just because a loss takes them out of the National Title hunt, but because they need to get past this whole Hawkeye curse. Helluva way to open the Big Ten season.
October 3 - @ Illinois - It's hard to believe this is the first time the Lions will be venturing out of Happy Valley. Illinois could be a very difficult test. Penn State willneed to be fired up and ready to go for this.
October 10 - vs Eastern Illinois - What?? You're facing a FCS team now?? This is poor scheduling. Penn State doesn't need this; not when you've got a team like they have.
October 17 - vs Minnesota - This should be a breeze. If it's not, I'll be very surprised.
October 24 - @ Michigan - This is a trap game. Penn State will be largely focused on three games: Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State. If they don't pay attention to this one, a much improved Wolverine team could sneak up and bite them.
October 31 - @ Northwestern - Okay...this could be a trap game too, though I doubt Penn State will be as likely to overlook the Wildcats as they might be to overlook the Wolverines. Northwestern will be improved over last year as well, and this is going to be a pretty exciting game.
November 7 - vs Ohio State - Sure, the Wolverine/Buckeye match has history. It's a rivalry. However, until Michigan truly gets everything in order and starts challenging for the Big Ten title, this is the game to watch. Both of these teams should be the front runners for the Big Ten title, and this one could settle it all.
November 14 - vs Indiana - This should be a huge breather after the last three games.
November 21 - @ Michigan State - This game could look an aweful lot lack last year's match. Who will trip up Ohio State? Anyone? If so, and especially if it wasn't Penn State, then this could be a match of two teams with one conference loss fighting for a bid to the Rose Bowl. Or, it could be an undefeated Penn State squad trying to keep that streak alive for just one more game.
Okay...so what?
I don't think this schedule does Penn State justice. The first three games are just weak, if you ask me, and that October date against Eastern Illinois is just horrendous. When you're sitting in Penn State's place, you've got to think about the strength of your schedule. Teams like these don't help your cause. Yes, you've got as many as four teams that could be ranked, but if you want to impress upon people that you're not just at the top of a weak conference, you've got to schedule some tougher competition outside of the conference.
The Iowa game will be huge for both programs. Iowa needs to show they're turning a corner, while Penn State needs to get a little revenge. I like the Michigan game being on the road and I definitely like the Buckeye game being at home.
The one thing that sticks out at me is that Penn State only plays four road dates and doesn't get the first one until week 5. I guess that's a good thing for Lions fans. They've got a very good chance of being nearly perfect at home this year.
All-in-all, I think the schedule's a little weak. Just one loss will be enough to knock Penn State down quite a ways in the rankings. I'd like to see something a bit tougher.
Way too early prediction
The first three are gimme's. Syracuse could maybe keep it close for a little while, but ultimately, I think all three will be walk-away wins. Then comes Iowa.
Yes, Iowa has the advantage in recent history, and that program will be pretty tough again this year. However, this one's in Happy Valley, and Penn State has all the reason in the world to take this game very seriously. Penn State takes this one, but it'll be another nail-biter.
Illinois is a wildcard. They could have a very explosive offense and a much improved defense. That this is one of the road dates (the first, at that) is tough, but I think PSU will pull it out in the end. Eastern Illinois coming to Beaver Stadium is just another gimme. So, the Nittany Lions should be 6-0 to start their season, 2-0 in the conference.
Minnesota will have some good moments. They might even keep it close through the first half. Penn State will pull that one out by at least 14, though.
Michigan could be considerably more difficult. It's a road game, and the team should be much more exciting than last year. If Penn State's not careful, the Wolverines could ruin their perfect streak. I don't think that'll happen, though. I pick the Lions in a fairly close one.
I've got the same feeling about Northwestern. It's on the road and they'll be pretty tough. Actually, I think they might even lead Penn State going into the half. It's the second half where the Lions will pick it up and set the Wildcats down. That'll make Penn State 9-0, 5-0 in the conference, when they host the Buckeyes from Ohio State.
This is a tough one for me to call. As far as overall talent goes, I think the Buckeyes have the edge. However, this one is in Happy Valley, and the Lions want this pretty badly. I think this one will be a back-and-forth battle right to the end. Penn State fans aren't going to like this too much, but this is where I draw their perfect season to an end. Ohio State will take the lead late in the 4th and hold on to win.
Indiana should be an easy win if the Nittany Lions aren't too let down from the Ohio State game. I don't know that they can be let down enough to lose to the Hoosiers.
Michigan State will be another wildcard game. The Spartans are missing Ringer and Hoyer this year, so they'll have an all-new look and feel. I still think they've got all the pieces in place to be a very tough team this year. There could be a lot on the line for both teams when this one rolls around. It's a "rivalry" game, and this time, it really could have the feel of a real rivalry. I think the outcome will be pretty much the same as last year, though. Penn State wins.
Final Tally: This will look much like a repeat of last year. Penn State will go 11-1 through the regular season, 7-1 in the Big Ten. Whether or not they go to Pasadena is a question that can't be answered until the time comes. If Ohio State has a better record, they'll go to another BCS bowl while the Lions try to avenge their loss last season to USC. If not, then it could be the Buckeyes going to the Rose Bowl while Penn State gets a BCS bowl. Or, one of them could go to the Rose Bowl while the other plays a non-BCS bowl. That can't be predicted until we see what the rest of the country does. Whatever the bowl picture looks like, Penn State will get a January bowl game.
For that reason, I really wish Penn State was following the lead of some of their conference peers and scheduling games into December. If the conference doesn't want to institute a championship, then the traditional bowl teams, at least, need to take it upon themselves to play a little later into the season. I'm sure Penn State will represent the Big Ten well, whenever and whoever they play, but it sure would be nice to see them taking the field on December 5th.
Next up...and finally....Ohio State
Way Too Early Look at Big Ten Schedules (Part 10)
Sunday, April 19, 2009, 01:33 PM EST
[Ohio State]
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