Now I'll finish out my bowl picks with the "Big Three".

CAPITAL ONE BOWL

January 1, 2009  1:00 PM  ABC

Georgia vs. Michigan State

The Statistics:

Georgia Bulldogs (9-3)

Passing:

Matthew Stafford     215 completions     352 attempts     3209 yards     61.1%     22 TDs to 9 INTs     153.2 QB Rating

Joe Cox     11 comp     15 att     151 yards     73.3%     2 TDs to 0 INTs     201.9 QB Rating

Team Notes  Georgia has a very nice 61.2% completion average and have racked up 24 TDs to just 9 INTs.  Stafford leads the SEC in passing yards per game (267.4).  He'll give MSU's 63rd rated pass defense fits.

Rushing:

Knowshon Moreno     227 carries     1338 yards     5.9 ypc     16 TDs

Caleb King     61 carries     247 yards     4.0 ypc     1 TD

Richard Samuel     26 carries     133 yards     5.1 ypc     1 TD

Team Notes     The Bulldogs have put up 21TDs on the ground, mostly behind Moreno.  Their ground attack is stronger thanks to an offensive line that has steadily progressed through the regular season. 

Receiving:

A.J. Green     55 receptions     951 yards     8 TDs

Mohamed Massaquol     57 rec     910 yards     8 TDs

Michael Moore     23 rec     354 yards     1 TD

Knowshon Moreno     27 rec     329 yards     1 TD

Kris Durham     10 rec     167 yards     1 TD

Demiko Goodman     10 rec     129 yards     1 TD

Team Notes     Georgia has used 18 receivers to get 226 receptions for 3360 yards and 24 TDs.  They have a solid balance between the running game and pass attack.  Durham and Green have both been plagued by injuries.  Durham underwent surgery to repair a broken left hand.  Both are expected to be a "go" come game time and should be at 100%. 

Michigan State Spartans (9-3)

Passing:

Brian Hoyer     162 completions     319 attempts     2235 yards     50.8%     9 TDs to 8 INTs     113.9 QB Rating

Kirk Cousins     28 comp     38 att     274 yards     73.7%     2 TDs to 1 INT     146.4 QB Rating

Team Notes     Hoyer has been inconsistent, causing Javon Ringer to have to carry much of the load on offense.  Against Georgia, Hoyer will have to be on target and have his head in the game.  He'll have his favorite receiver, Mark Dell back from injury, to help his confidence.

Rushing:

Javon Ringer     370 carries     1590 yards     4.3 ypc     21 TDs

Andre Anderson     26 carries     97 yards     3.7 ypc     0 TD

B.J. Cunningham     4 carries     56 yards     14.0 ypc     0 TD

Team Notes     Despite Ringer being on everybody's radar as a Heisman candidate and a Doak Walker finalist, the Spartans are rated only 69th in rushing offense.  He'll be teeing off against the 40th rated rush defense.  He's faced much tougher defenses, though and still put up solid numbers.  Expect a 25-30 carry day.

Receiving:

Blair White     39 receptions     628 yards     1 TD

Mark Dell     31 rec     618 yards     3 TDs

B.J. Cunningham     35 rec     476 yards     0 TD

Charlie Gantt     19 rec     302 yards     4 TDs

Javon Ringer     25 rec     160 yards     0 TD

Team Notes     Michigan State used 15 receivers to get 192 receptions for 2568 yards and 11 TDs.  Given Hoyers inconsistency, the pass game has been more of a "as-needed" tool rather than a serious attack.  They prefer to put the ball in the able hands of Ringer and let him carry them to victory.

What's it all mean Bassil?

Georgia has a well balanced attack that they can throw at the Spartan defense.  Michigan State, on the other hand, is a running team that lays it all on Ringer's shoulders.  That's not necessarily a bad thing.  Not only has Ringer gained nearly 1600 yards on the ground against some pretty tough rushing defenses, Georgia was run all over by Georgia Tech.  In that game Roddy Jones ran for 214 yards and Jonathan Dwyer added another 144.  Those two combined for 33 carries that game.  Ringer alone often touches the ball that many times.  If he can get the same kind of production Dwyer and Jones did, Georgia is in for a long day. 

On paper, Georgia has the clear advantage in terms of the number of weapons at their disposal as well as their overall ratings. 

What will likely happen:

Javon Ringer said he'd like to have "twenty five carries and two hundred yards in a win".  He could do it, but I think it'll take more than 25 carries to get that 200 yards.  Then again, seeing as how he's both their main weapon and that he'll likely be going pro after this season, he'll probably touch the ball closer to 30-35 times.  Ringer will find the endzone twice.  However....

Georgia has too many weapons.  They're just too balanced for the Spartan defense to keep under wraps.  Stafford, Moreno and Green will combine for some big gains and more than enough points to send the Spartans back to Michigan with a bowl loss on their hands.

My Pick: Georgia 27 - Michigan State 17 

Actual: Georgia 24 - Michigan State 12

MSU was beat in the 3rd quarter.  They took a 6-3 lead into the lockers at halftime, playing very tough defensive ball.  The Dawgs put up 14 unanswered points in the 3rd, however, and MSU never quite recovered.  They did put up another TD in the 4th to draw within 5 (missed 2pt conv.), but then gave up a TD to Georgia on the other end of the field.  Both RB's were held below their expectations, and both had flashes of greatness, but it was the passing game that made the difference and Georgia simply had more weapons. 

ROSE Presented by Citi

January 1, 2009  4:30 PM  ABC

Penn State vs. USC

The Statistics:

Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1)

Passing:

Daryll Clark     171 completions     285 attempts     2319 yards     60.0%     17 TDs to 4 INTs     145.2 QB Rating

Pat Devlin     25 comp     47 att     459 yards     53.2%     4 TDs to 0 INT     163.3 QB Rating

Paul Cianciolo     6 comp     9 att     86 yards     66.7%     1 TD to 0 INT     183.6 QB Rating

Team Notes     The Lions have a very respectable 58.8 completion percentage with 22 TDs to only 4 INTs.  Their "Spread HD" allows Clark to make good reads and pick amongst several targets.  He's done a fantastic job of leading this new offense and making things happen.

Rushing:

Evan Royster     185 carries     1202 yards     6.5 ypc     12 TDs

Stephon Green     95 carries     521 yards     5.5 ypc     4 TDs

Daryll Clark     72 carries     265 yards     3.7 ypc     9 TDs

Derrick Williams     39 carries     226 yards     5.8 ypc     3 TDs

Team Notes     Royster's 6.5 ypc is amazing, surpassing even Doak Walker winner Shonn Greene's average.  Penn State has put the ball into the endzone 35 times from the ground and average a very nice 5.36 ypc as a team.  I can remember when 3.0 ypc was considered a solid run game.  These guys are putting that old mark to shame.  Dispite Clark's ability to move the ball effectively through the air, Penn State has run the ball 130 times more than they've passed it.  Royster has led this unit to a 15th rated rush attack.  They'll be facing the 5th rated rush defense, though, so they'll need some great play at the line to keep the backs moving forward.

Receiving:

Deon Butler     43 receptions     713 yards     7 TDs

Jordan Norwood     38 rec     605 yards     5 TDs

Derrick Williams     40 rec     451 yards     3 TDs

Stephon Green     10 rec     201 yards     1 TD

Team Notes     Penn State used 16 receivers to get 2887 yards and 22 TDs.  Butler, Norwood and Williams provide Clark with several options to turn to through the air, but they'll be facing the #1 rated pass defense in the nation.  Some consideration has to be given to the strength of the Pac-10, but it'll still be very tough for PSU to move the ball through the air. 

Southern California Trojans (11-1)

Passing:

Mark Sanchez     213 completions     331 attempts     2794 yards     64.4%     30 TDs to 10 INTs     159.1 QB Rating

Mitch Mustain     11 comp     16 att     157 yards     68.8%     2 TDs to 2 INTs     167.4 QB Rating

Team Notes     Sanchez and Co. have completed a fantastic 64.4% of their passes for just under 3000 yards and 32 TDs.  That efficiency will be tested against the 12th rated pass defense. 

Rushing:

Joe McKnight     84 carries     646 yards     7.7 ypc     2 TDs

Stafon Johnson     123 carries     642 yards     5.2 ypc     9 TDs

C.J. Gable     101 carries     604 yards     6.0 ypc     8 TDs

Team Notes     USC carried the ball 463 times for 2464 yards and 26 TDs.  This is an interesting rotation.  any of these backs could potentially be a star in their own right if they were carrying the ball more.  Rotating them around has been just as effective though, and ensures plenty of depth in the running game.  The unit is rated 17th and will be facing the 9th rated rush defense.

Receiving:

Damian Williams     48 receptions     707 yards     8 TDs

Patrick Turner     45 rec     667 yards     10 TDs

Ronald Johnson     29 rec     488 yards    6 TDs

Stanley Havili     24 rec     324 yards     3 TDs

Team Notes     USC has nicely balanced their 26 rushing TDs with 32 through the air, dispite running the ball 100 more times than throwing.  Williams, Johnson and Turner are all threats to make big plays and Havili is a huge receiving target coming out of the fullback position.  If they can keep PSU's front four out of the backfield and give Sanchez time to toss the ball, they'll keep the Lion's defense on their toes.

What's it all mean Bassil?

While both of these offenses are efficient and more than capable of putting up points, this is really a battle of the defenses.  USC has the #1 rated defense in the nation and PSU is #5. 

Both teams have QB's that have completion percentages in the 60's; both have RB's with ypc averages above 6.5; and both have receivers with multiple TDs to their credit.  Each team's strengths will be pitted against the other's. 

In a nutshell, this should be a fantastic game.  Probably the best bowl game of the season.

What'll likely happen:

Both teams will find a big play or two, but for the most part, yardage will be hard to come by.  There will be a lot of hard hitting and some great defensive plays that'll make you sit up and pay attention. 

USC will move the ball around a lot and test Penn State's resolve.  Sanchez will find Williams and Turner for a TD each, but that'll be about it.  Penn State will be the toughest test they've faced all year.

Penn State will initially find their "Spread HD" about as effective against USC as they did against Iowa.  They'll be down by 10 going into the half.  The second half will be a different story, though.  Royster and Green will find a rythm that'll suck the USC defense in, and Clark will begin to find Butler, Norwood and Williams on short passes to keep the ball moving. 

In the end, it'll come down to the kicking game to make the difference.  Kevin Kelly has a bit more experience there than Buehler does.  PSU will force USC to overtime and Kelly will knock in the winning goal.

My Pick:  Penn State 23 - USC 20

Actual: USC 38 - Penn State 24

Don't let the score fool you...it wasn't even that close.  To all of the USC fans out there, you have my official apology for saying that your defensive ranking was questionable.  In my defense, I think it's tough to tell how good any team's offense/defense really is when the only solid comparison for them you have is conference opponents.  Penn State kept it close in the first quarter, tying the game at 7-7.  Then USC turned on the heat and burned Penn State to the ground. The Lion's secondary seemed scared of the Trojan receivers, playing way off the line and giving up tons of yardage on shorter passes that turned into big gains.  Finally, in the 4th quarter they started to put something together...when USC had was in "junk time".  It was an unfortunate ending to a great regular season.

TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL

January 5, 2009  8:00 PM  FOX

Texas vs. Ohio State

The Statistics:

Texas Longhorns (11-1)

Passing:

Colt McCoy     291 completions     375 attempts     3445 yards     77.6%     32 TDs to 7 INTs     179.2 QB Rating

John Chiles     11 comp     13 att     149 yards     84.6%     2 TDs to 0 INTs     231.7 QB Rating

Team Notes     Everyone knows Colt McCoy nearly won the Heisman Trophy, and for good reason.  With an efficiency like that, he would have any other year.  He led a unit that's rated 11th in passing yards with 34 TDs and 3594 yards.  They'll be going up against the 6th rated pass defense, and that will be big.  No other team in the Big XII (North or South) comes close to the kind of defense they'll face in OSU.

Rushing:

Colt McCoy     128 carries     576 yards     4.5 ypc     10 TDs

Vondrell McGee     88 carries     376 yards     4.3 ypc     4 TDs

Cody Johnson     73 carries     336 yards     4.6 ypc     12 TDs

Chris Ogbonnaya     63 carries     331 yards     5.3 ypc     4 TDs

Team Notes     McCoy is as effective on the ground as he is in the air with a ypc average that rivals many tailbacks in the country.  With McGee, Johnson & Co. along for the ride, the Longhorns have put up 2127 yards on 475 carries and 32 TDs.  They're rated 35th in terms of yards.  As stiff as OSU's defense is, rushing isn't their strong suit.  They're ranked 20th, which isn't bad, but the 'Horns may find it easier to move on the ground than through the air.

Receiving:

Jordan Shipley     79 receptions     982 yards     11 TDs

Quan Cosby     78 rec     952 yards     8 TDs

Chris Ogbannaya     42 rec     484 yards     3 TDs

Brandon Collins     28 rec     370 yards     3 TDs

Malcolm Williams     17 rec     304 yards     3 TDs

Team Notes     Texas used 15 receivers to amass 3594 yards on 302 receptions for 34 TDs.  McCoy is so dangerous because he can run as well as throw, but Shipley has been a solid, dangerous receiver.  Their 34 passing TDs nicely compliments the 32 they've gotten on the ground.  Once again, they'll test OSU's defense, which is rated 6th against the pass. 

Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2)

Passing:

Terrelle Pryor     95 completions     152 attempts     1245 yards     62.5%     12 TDs to 4 INTs     152.1 QB Rating

Todd Boeckman     52 comp     81 att     510 yards     64.2%     4 TDs to 2 INTs     128.4 QB Rating

Team Notes     Pryor didn't start the season as the Buckeyes' QB.  He earned that spot part way through the season and had to grow a little to become what he is now.  OSU has the 104th rated passing offense, but that's slightly skewed.  Like McCoy, Pryor is a running QB, who spends about as much time sprinting down the field as he does sitting in the pocket...probably more.  Luckily for them, they'll be facing teh 110th rated pass defense.  Say what you want about the Big XII South being the toughest conference to defend against the pass...that's still not a good defensive stat.  Pryor should have a slightly better opportunity to throw the ball than he's had against some Big Ten opponents.

Rushing:

Chris Wells     191 carries     1091 yards     5.7 ypc     8 TDs

Terrell Pryor     124 carries     553 yards     4.5 ypc     6 TDs

Daniel Herron     84 carries     409 yards     4.9 ypc     5 TDs

Team Notes     Wells spent much of the season dealing with a mysterious foot injury.  If his performance in the later part of the season is any indication, his stats are about 500-700 yards short of where they'd be if he'd been healthy.  The Buckeyes have carried the ball 495 times for 2321 yards, averaging 4.69 ypc for 20 TDs.  That's good enough for a 28th rating, going up against the 2nd rated run defense.  Again...the Big XII South is a pass happy conference, so that rating isn't suprising.  Still, Wells will really have to work for it this time.

Receiving:

Brian Hartline     21 receptions     479 yards     4 TDs

Brian Robiskie     37 rec     419 yards     8 TDs

Dane Sanzenbacher     21 rec    272 yards     1 TD

Ray Small     18 rec     149 yards     0 TD

Team Notes     OSU has used 13 different receivers for 150 receptions, 1777 yards and 16 TDs.  Robiskie is easily the favored target, but don't discount the others.  The Buckeyes can move the ball through the air pretty efficiently.  As I said above, they'll be facing the 110th rated pass defense, so we'll see if that's merely because of the conference Texas plays in, or if they're really that bad.  If they're really that bad, OSU will move the ball easily through the air and open up the ground game for Wells.

What's it all mean Bassil?

Not that much, when it comes down to it.  Fans of Texas will quickly shout out that the only reason their pass defense is rated so low is because they've had to play against teams like Oklahoma, Texas Tech and such.  When facing QB's like the ones their conference has, they'd like to see anyone else do better.  OSU will also quickly point out that Wells was injured and Pryor was a later development, and that's why they're stats aren't better.  Both are right...and both are wrong, at least to a degree. 

OSU has a great run defense.  Unfortunately, the run isn't the aspect they really have to worry about so much.  McCoy is quite comfortable burning them through the air.  Likewise, Texas has an even better run defense (on paper), but there again, Pryor can burn them through the air too.  The difference is that I've yet to see a team Texas has faced that can run the ball as well as OSU's Wells can, which will put that rating to the test.  They also haven't faced a defense like OSU's, which will put their entire offense to the test.  However....

OSU hasn't exactly been stellar this year against teams that were equal or better than them.  They hung tight with Penn State, but lost at home, nonetheless.  They were destroyed by USC; though, in fairness, they were missing Wells and Pryor hadn't asserted himself as the starter yet. 

What it all comes down to is: this is a game between a team that has a legitimate argument that they should have been in the National Championship Game and a team that's trying to get the "Big Game" monkey off their back.  It's a game between two excellent run defenses, facing two very good pass offenses.  The question will be: is Texas' #2 rated rush defense for real?

What will likely happen:

This will be an exciting match, no doubt about it.  I'm sorry to tell Texas fans that I don't think this is going to be the blowout you're expecting.  If it is, its still not good because it won't be your team doing the blowing out.  I don't think it will be, though.  OSU's defense is very good, all the way around.  They'll get burned a time or two by McCoy, but not as often as you're used to.  The Texas run game will be virtually non-existent. 

Don't get too excited, though, Buckeye fans.  Wells may have a pretty good day, but Pryor won't find the passing as clean as he'd think, despite Texas' low rating.  They've faced tougher pass offenses and survived.  This game will be a shootout...not something OSU is really accustomed to.

My Pick:  Texas 41 - Ohio State 37

Actual: Texas 24 - Ohio State 21

OSU gave Texas all they could handle and can go into next season with their heads held high.  Of course, many will say that they failed to get it done, yet again.  The game came down to one play in the end.  With time running low, Texas ran a quick snap and caught OSU off guard for the go ahead score.  The first half of the game was almost boring.  Both teams were a little sloppy and both struggled to put points on the board.  The Buckeyes led 6-3 at the half.  The second half lit up a little better, with OSU throwing everything at the Longhorns but the kitchen sink.  For the most part, it worked.  The D's began to look tired, though and Texas struck the final blow with not enough time left for OSU to do anything about it. 

Ohio State may not win that game, but they'll keep it close enough and make enough good plays to regain a little respect in the poll of public opinion.

That's it for the Big Ten season.  As a conference, the B-10 was a lowly 1-6.  I went 2-1 on my picks for this segment, but take very little confort in it.  I would much rather have been wrong and seen Big Ten teams fare better.  All-in-all, it was another exciting year of football and I'm anxious to see what the recruiting trail nets for our teams.  With several teams stepping up their play this year, things should be very exciting next fall. 

For those who have frequented my blog, I thank you deeply.  Like my picks or not, you've come back week after week and I appreciate it.  I'll likely come back with a post-season piece, then sign off until next year.  Have a great 2009 all, and Happy Bowl Hunting next season!

That's it from here folks.  Hope you're all enjoying a very Happy Holiday and catching some great bowl games!

Be sure to check out SEABASS here.  His picks are up.

Also keep an eye on PSPKNINE here.  He may have some picks up soon.

Peace!