Continuing on with the schedules of the teams in the Big Ten....

Michigan

Yesterday, I wrote about Indiana; today I get to try and cover Michigan.  I've thought about this one a lot, and have to say; this is one tough team to guess about. 

Rich Rodriquez will finally get some of his recruits to work with.  The question is: how many of them will be ready and how big of an impact will they be able to make?  It's far too early (for me anyway) to know just what those answers will be.  What Michigan needs to help these players grow with the system is a good schedule.  I think they've got the perfect one lined up:

The Schedule

September 5 - vs Western Michigan - I like this match, though I would rather see it swapped with week 2 for a couple of reasons.  First, the Broncos are a pretty decent team.  They're not Top 25 good, but they're not bad.  I'd like to see Michigan start their new RichRod program with someone just a little lighter.  On the other hand, WMU should provide a decent enough talent to give the Wolverines a bit of a challenge.  Second, Michigan has had some trouble with their opening day opponents the last couple of years.  Revert now back to reason number one. 

September 12 - vs Notre Dame - Last I heard, Charlie Weiss was going to do the play calling at ND.  The last time he did that, they went 3-9.  That bodes well for Michigan.  I personally think the Irish will be a little rusty and confused.  This one-time must-see match has fallen to the level of take-it-or-leave-it, but that's pretty good for Michigan.  Right now they don't need a lot of top 25 teams on their schedule.

September 19 - vs Eastern Michigan - The Eagles went 3-9 last year (2-6 MAC West).  Even if they're much improved over last season, they're not up to beating the Wolverines.  This is another good chance to tweak the system before starting conference play.

September 26 - vs Indiana - Four straight home games to open the season??  How'd they pull that off?  It's a good thing, in that they get four straight in front of a friendly crowd.  It's bad because their young players need the road experience before they have to go on the road in conference play.  As for this game against Indiana, it's Indiana and it's at home.  Indiana may well be improved over last season, but I still think this is a great home win for Michigan and a great start to conference play.

October 3 - @ Michigan State - This is a tough opponent to face on the road for the first time all season.  Sparty really rubbed it in Michigan's face that they won last year.  Unfortunately, I don't think Michigan will be able to get revenge this year.  I don't mind this game being here in the schedule, but I don't like that this is the first time the Wolverines are venturing out of Ann Arbor, even if it is just a few miles down the road.

October 10 - @ Iowa - Another tough road trip.  Iowa may not be Ohio State (or even Penn State for that matter), but they're not bad, folks, and they're especially tough at home.  After five light home games and a tough road trip to their in-state rival, they now have to go to Kinnick and try to knock off a team that has something to prove this year.  I would have rather seen these two dates spread out a little.  Particularly because these games are the toughest two road trips on a mostly home schedule.

October 17 - vs Delaware State - Who???  I can hardly even find any information on this team!  Their own home page consists of stories from 2005-2006.  What are the Michigan Wolverines doing messing around with a team like this?  And why now?  Well, I guess it does offer a nice layup in front of their home crowd after what's sure to be a disappointing two weeks on the road.

October 24 - vs Penn State - Wake up time.  Michigan may get this one at home, but it won't make a difference.  Rodriguez won't have his team ready for this one.  Not this year. 

October 31 - @ Illinois - I'm not sure what to make of this one yet.  If Illinois v2009 is like Illinois v2008, I would like to think that the improved Michigan team could get their first road win here.  Unfortunately, I don't think it will be.  This game could be a matchup of the most improved teams in the Big Ten....or it could just be a blunder-fest.  I think Illinois wins this one, just because it's at Illinois.

November 7 - vs Purdue - Purdue football is a mess right now.  I know they have "Hope", and that's great, but this is a first year program.  Rodriguez will have had more time to get his improvements in place than Hope will have.  It's in the Big House.  It's Michigan's win.

November 14 - @ Wisconsin - yet another question of "which team is this".  What will Wisconsin look like in '09?  They've got some work to do this year too.  They'll be coming off games against Purdue and Indiana, so they should be in as good of shape as they're going to be.  I like this game here on the schedule.  It's a good place to finish their road journeys for the year.  Figure in that, if everything goes as I think they might, Michigan could be playing for bowl eligibility here.  This could be an exciting game.

November 21 - vs Ohio State - The luster has diminished somewhat from this traditional rivalry.  Ohio State has just been too good.  There's no other place this game could possibly go on the schedule, though.  It's a given.  It's also a given (this year) that OSU will walk out of Ann Arbor with a win, rivalry or not.

Ok....so what?

Normally, this schedule would be incredibly weak for Michigan.  Given the circumstances, though, I think it's about perfect.  No one really expects the Wolverines to be in the running for a National Championship berth, so strength-of-schedule isn't much of an issue.  They're just trying to get some wins, build some confidence and work their players into the new system. 

The first four games are all at home.  Western Michigan could be a challenge.  So, too, could be Notre Dame.  For that reason, I'll split the two.  I think the Wolverines will win one, but not both.  They'll have no problem with Eastern Michigan and will get a win over Indiana.  So, they'll be 3-1 (1-0 Big Ten) when they face Michigan State. 

I don't think the Wolverines can get past the Spartans this year.  For that matter, I don't think they can get past Iowa either.  That'll make them 3-3 (1-2) when they face Delaware State.  Who???  Yeah....anyway.... 

I don't see Michigan beating Penn State.  Illinois is a possibility, but I'm not sure Michigan will get them on the road.  The Wolverines should be able to handle Purdue at home and I think they'll get past Wisconsin on the road (for their only road win and the game that will make them bowl eligible). 

That leaves them at 6-5 overall and 3-4 in the Big Ten.  Sorry Wolverine fans, but I don't see your team beating Ohio State in the season finale.

The Wolverines have eight home games and only four road dates.  That should do wonders for them.  I don't like that they have Michigan State and Iowa on back-to-back dates, both on the road.  I know there's nothing they could do about it, but their schedule would have been just a shade better if they could have spread out MSU, Iowa, Illinois and Penn State a little better.  I think their season will feel a little "choppy" as they rack up some wins, then take two losses, rack up another win, then lose two straight, etc.  That kind of thing can play havoc on a young team's confidence. 

Way too early final predition

Michigan will end the season at 6-6 overall and 3-5 in the Big Ten.  They won't be in the cellar of the conference standings this year.  Purdue and Indiana will be below them.  At 6-6 they'll be bowl eligible and will likely get an invite based on who they are.  They're the Michigan Wolverines and people will watch them wherever they play.  This still won't be the Michigan team we're used to seeing, but it'll be a marked improvement over last season.

Next up.....Purdue...