I"ve already written a first look at this week's games, now it's time to put my money where my mouth is and give my final predictions.  Enjoy!

Purdue @ Northwestern

Purdue's defense has had a couple of surprisingly effective games of late, though both were losses.  They managed to hold JoePa's electric Penn St. team to 20 points (may not sound like a big deal, but it is) and held UberTalented Ohio State to 16.  For a team that's mediocre-at-best, that's saying something.  Unfortunately, their offense and defense can't seem to get on the same page from week to week.

Two Reasons Purdue could win:

1)  I always hate to use this as a reason but all too often it shows itself to be true: Purdue is easy to overlook.  Northwestern played a valiant game against a very good MSU team and lost.  It would be very easy to look past Purde, expecting it to be an easy "W" and start thinking down the road toward Minnisota, three games from now.  No Big Ten team should ever be overlooked, but it happens frequently.  Interestingly (on that note), a quick look at NW's foxsports home page has virtually nothing about the game against Purdue....tomorrow.....like, real soon. 

2)  D-Fence: If they can hold Fitz's crew to under 21, they might have a shot.  NW's defense isn't as stout as OSU/PSU and those are the only two teams this year to hold Purdue under 21.  That's right...despite 6 INT's to 5 TD's, Painter and Co. have posted at least 21 points in four of thier six games.  They may not be pretty, but they do know how to score. 

Two Reasons Northwestern will win:

1) It's Purdue!  Pat Fitzgerald's Wildcats have sprinted to a 6-1 start and have beaten better teams than Purdue.  If they keep thier heads in the game, this one should be in the bag.

2) O-Fence: NW has also been held under 21 only twice this year; against Ohio and MSU, losing the latter.  The spread "O" has been good to the 'Cats and they've been pretty good at it. 

Pick: NW is just too strong for Purdue, though they could make it look good.  Northwestern 27 - Purdue 17

Northwestern 48 - Purdue 26:  Well, I was way off on the score, but right on the prediction.  Purdue couldn't slow down NW's offense.  The Boilermakers put up 26 points of their own, but they've got to play some defense.  When you're putting 26 points on the board, it should at least be a very close game and this wasn't.  Great job NW!  Another solid performance.

#12 Ohio State @ #20 Michigan State

MSU is flying pretty high right now, but they haven't faced the likes of OSU.  This should be a great game of Top 25 teams.

Two Reasons OSU might win:

1) This is OSU we're talking about.  Rag on them all you want about big losses in big games, failed opportunities in NCG's, whatever.  This team always seem to find ways to win.  MSU is good, but OSU has better talent and that may well be enough.

2) Emotion: the Bucks need this game and they know it.  With the top 10 shaping up and rotating around the way it has, they know they may have already lost a shot at the NCG, but nothing has been decided for certain, yet.  Just as importantly, if PSU stumbles (or if OSU can beat them in a couple of weeks), the Bucks could find themselves in position to steal the Big Ten Title.  Beating MSU will make the PSU game for all the B-10 marbles, and could go a long way toward getting back toward the top of the National heap.

Two Reasons MSU might win:

1) Ohio State's offense has been getting progressvely worse.  Blame it on the coaching staff.  The Spartans are too good a team to play stupidly against.  Ask Iowa.  Despite out rushing MSU and moving the ball almost at will, they went for it on 4th down twice and got beat.  MSU will burn you if you keep them too close. 

2) As tired as I am of hearing about Javon Ringer, the man deserves respect.  He's a monster.  Most of Ringer's carries/yards come in the fourth quarter and he averages over 35 carries per game.  If MSU keeps it close going into the 4th, Ringer can definitely carry them to the win.

Pick: MSU will finally put OSU out of thier misery.  Michigan State 17 - Ohio State 14

Ohio State 45 - Michigan State 7: 

Well, I was definitely off on this one.  Ohio State had been struggling offensively leading up to this game and Michigan State was looking pretty tough.  That was just an outright ass kicking there.  I didn't get to see the whole game, but what I did, MSU looked completely out of sync.  Javon Ringer got some good carries, but couldn't do enough against an OSU defense that was hell-bent on shutting MSU down.  That should take MSU out of any conversation about a Big Ten Conference Championship.  It's now down to two.

Michigan @ #3 Penn State

Penn State is white hot and MIchigan is not-not.  This should be a blowout.

Two Reasons Michigan could win:

1) This is Big Ten football and this is Michigan.  I don't care how bad their season is going, you never, ever count Michigan completely out.  That's the kind of crazy talk that gets a good team beat.

2) RichRod's crew has looked completely bewildered this year, but it only takes one good week for some of the pieces to fall together.  If Penn State comes in thinking about Ohio State, and Michigan can finally figure out how to run RR's spread, who knows what can happen?

Two Reasons Penn State will win:

1) Balance:  Michigan's defense isn't that bad, but they'll have a lot to work against this week.  JoePa has built an offense that can move the ball around and do a lot of different things in a lot of different situations.  They'll put up big points that Michigan just won't be able to match.

2) Leadership:  JoePa doesn't allow his boys to overlook opponents.  He' may be 80-something, but he still knows how to get his men focused.  He'll make sure they're ready for the Wolverines and won't let anyone look to next week until this one's taken care of.

Pick: Are you serious?  Do you even have to ask?  Penn State 42 - Michigan 10

Penn State 46 - Michigan 17

In the end, this ended up pretty close to where I called it, but during the first half it was looking pretty bad for PSU.  Michigan looked a little more like the Michigan of old and Penn State looked a lot less like the Lions we're used to seeing.  Michigan led 17-7 at one point and kept a 17-14 lead going into the half.  I was starting to wonder if Michigan might find a way to pull off the upset, but it wasn't going to happen.  The Lions pulled it together and kicked thier ass, pretty much how everyone predicted.

Indiana @ Illinois

This could be a good game....or it could be a blowout....(???)

Two Reasons Indiana could win:

1) history:  Indiana has won three of the last five meetings and two of the last three.  They may be down, but they won't be scared of the Juice.

2) Ummm.....well....okay, here's something: no...nevermind.  I can't think of a single other reason Indiana could win this game.  I just don't see it.

Two Reasons Illinois will win this game:

1) Look at who Illinois has lost to.  Missouri: top 25 team.  Penn State: top 25 team.  Minnisota: top 25 team (now).  Yeah, they've got three losses, but their losses are to good teams.  Indiana isn't a good team this year, and Illinois takes care of the teams they should beat. 

2)  Illinois' explosive offense.  We all know Juice and what he can do.  As a team, Illinois has 10 rushing TD's and 13 passing TD's.  They know where the endzone is and how to get there.  Indiana's defense can't keep up.

Pick:  I think there's little doubt who's favored.  Illinois 27 - Indiana 10

Illinois 55 - Indiana 13

The Juice was loose.  Running, throwing, handing off, this was a massacre.  I didn't expect Indiana to win this game, but I didn't expect Illinois to pour it on like this either.  I didn't watch the game, but kept track on gametrax and play-by-play.  When things go well, they go really well and when they go wrong, they go very wrong.  Indiana didn't help themselves by turning the ball over.  Holding onto it wouldn't have bought them a win in this game, but it sure didn't help the final score.  The Fighting Illini that showed up today is the one that was feared around the Big Ten. 

Wisconsin @ Iowa

Is it possible Wisconsin could go 0-4 in Big Ten play?  Doesn't seem likely does it?

Two Reasons Wisconsin might win:

1)  Last  week vs. Indiana aside, Iowa hasn't been good at scoring from the Red Zone.  They've opted instead to turn the ball over and make thier defense work harder than they should.  If Wisconsin's defense can put pressure on young QB Ricki Stanzi, Iowa could easily slip back into thier inconsistent ways and simply hand Wiscy the football before they have a chance to score.

2) P.J. Hill will be the third or fourth good running back Iowa has had to face.  They've done pretty well against the others, but Iowa hasn't faced an O-Line like Wisconsin's.  They're big, beefy and love to push people around.  Hill may well not face his first contact until he reaches the secondary on a lot of occasions and that can spell doom for an Iowa defense that has been pretty stiff this year.  Keep P.J. moving the ball and Iowa's defense will wear down and fold.

Two Reasons Iowa might win:

1) Shonn Greene/Jewel Hampton.  There is no "two-running-back-scheme" in Iowa, but Hampton does provide a very solid replacement for Greene if he's not 100%.  When Iowa's run game is on track, (QB) Ricki Stanzi becomes a lot more comfortable in the pocket and Iowa scores points.  Thier defense is certainly good enough to keep Iowa in the game for at least three quarters as long as the offense can keep the ball moving and score in the red zone like they did last week.  It's going to be up to the RB's to get the offense rolling though.

2) I know people are tired of hearing it, but the Badgers just aren't the team they were supposed to be.  I can easily forgive them for losing to OSU/PSU, but losing to Michigan in the same year that Michigan loses to 1-4 Toledo?  In the same year Michigan goes 2-4 in thier first 6 games?  Okay, put Michigan aside.  What about Michigan State?  MSU blew the Badgers out of the water and that speaks volumes to me as well.  Iowa should have beaten MSU, and certainly had the opportunities to.  Loss or not, Iowa kept that a very close game and Wisconsin didn't.  If that same Wisconsin team shows up at Kinnick Stadium, the Hawks are going to make the Badgers go 0-4 in conference play for the first time in forever.

Pick:  This one is going to be a closer game than it probably should and in the end could go either way.  I think Iowa's finally putting the pieces together, though, and that's going to spell disaster for Wisc.  Iowa 24 - Wisconsin 20

Iowa 38 - Wisconsin 16:  Hey, I'll take this win any day of the week and twice on Saturday!  Wisconsin's only TD came against Iowa's 2nd string defense later in the game.  Iowa played mistake-free again and Shonn Greene was phenominal!  25 carries, 217 yards, 4 TD's.  His success opened up the playbook for Ricki Stanzi, who was able to get DJk back into the offensive scheme a little.  I'm an Iowa fan, but even I was impressed with the way Iowa played that game. 

Hey folks, these are just my picks.  I know enough to know that I don't know much.  Read my "first look" post for a little more detail about these games.