I couldn't do it.   I just couldn't do it.  I've tried to wait until at least August to start talking about college football.  But, I can't.  I...just....can't! 

Spring practices are in full swing and I've had the football fever since late-January.  So, since my therapy isn't curing this addiction, I'm going to just embrace it and start looking at the '09 season. 

There are a million questions that need to be answered before we'll have any real idea what might play out in the upcoming season.  Position battles are just now in the opening stages, players have to get into shape, new recruits have to be worked into the system: there's a lot that has to happen before the coins start flipping.  One thing that is known, however, is the schedule.  So, I'm going to start at the bottom of the Big Ten (according to last year's results) and work my way up the ladder, looking at the 2009 schedules and will try to decipher some insight from them.

Without further ado:


Indiana Hoosiers (3-9 overall, 1-7 Big Ten in 2008)

Last year, Indiana was just bad.  There's no better way to put it, in my opinion. Can they right the ship?  There are all kinds of indicators that they might be able to.  Their recruiting class offers hope for the future.  They need a good schedule that will help those players grow and gain confidence to help turn the program around.

The Schedule

September 3 - vs Eastern Kentucky - The Colonels went 8-4 overall, 7-1 in the Ohio Valley Conference.  While they're a pretty decent FCS team, they should be no match for a FBS Big Ten team.  This should be a good home opener for the Hoosiers to get a little scrimmage and gain some experience.

September 12 - vs Western Michigan - The Broncos were 9-4 last year, 6-2 in the MAC West.  Like Eastern Kentucky, they shouldn't be much of a match for a Big Ten team.  Western Michigan won't be a pushover, though.  If Indiana hasn't righted at least a few of their ills from last season, this could be a relatively tough game.  At any rate, it'll be a better test for their youngsters than EKU. 

September 19 - @ Akron - The Zips were only 3-5 in the MAC-East last year.  MAC fans, forgive me, but in my book, a MAC team that only goes 3-5 is little better than an FCS team.  In fairness, they did go 5-7 overall, so maybe they'll give Indiana a test.  All-in-all, I think this is just another shot for the Hoosiers to get a little practice in before the real season starts.

September 26 - @ Michigan - The question we're going to hear over and over until September is: what will this year's Wolverine team look like now that Rich Rod has some of his players joining the team?  I've no doubt Michigan will be good again.  I just don't know if it'll be this year.  The good news is, they might not be that good.  The bad news is, the Hoosiers have to open their Big Ten campaign on the road.  This may well be a test for both teams.  I don't like Indiana's chances either way.

October 3 - Ohio State - If Michigan is good this year, then this is about the worst possible way to open the conference schedule.  It could only be worse if they opened on the road against Penn State.  This could be a close second.  OSU has some positions they need to fill, but I don't think anyone believes that will be a problem for them.  At best, Indiana will be 1-1 in the conference after this game.  Most likely, they'll be 0-2.  This is just a tough way to start the year.

October 10 - @ Virginia - The Cavaliers weren't all that great last year.  They were 3-5 in the ACC, 5-7 overall.  This year, they've overhauled their assistant coaching staff.  New OC Greg Brandon is implementing the Spread-O.  While the Spread-O is still feared and revered, it's not easy to implement without the right players.  They could easily still be disorganized by the time Indiana comes to town.  This could be a good break for a struggling Hoosier team. 

October 17 - Ilinois - Illinois will be better than last year.  I believe that completely.  Still, I don't think they're going to be the Rose Bowl team of two years ago.  That's good for Indiana, but not good enough.  If they come out of Virginia with a win, they'll have a positive overall record, but a weak conference record.  Illinois isn't the team to help them get on the positive side.  Williams will likely work over the Hoosier "D" and Indiana will find themselves with a losing conference record when the final whistle blows on this one. 

October 24 - @ Northwestern - I'm not sure what to make of Northwestern yet.  They were oh-so-close to knocking off Mizzou in the Alamo Bowl.  They were 9-4 overall with a 5-3 conference record last year.  But...will this team be that inspired?  Though Indiana had a much worse season last year, I would consider this a winable game for them...if it were played at home.  It's just bad luck that they get this one on the road.  At home, I might give them a fighting chance.

October 31 - @ Iowa - How fitting to play a Halloween game against a team in black?  This Iowa team isn't the Hawkeye team of two years ago.  It's not the same Hawkeye team as last year.  They lose some big playmakers like Shonn Greene, Mitch King and Matt Kroul.  The bad news for Indiana is that the Hawkeyes still have a very stiff defense and a more balanced offense than last year.  What's worse, Iowa traditionally plays better down the stretch (and no, not all teams do).  It'll be a scary trip to Iowa City for the Hoosiers (I know...poor...really poor).

November 7 - Wisconsin - The Badgers started last year as a Top 10 favorite to challenge for the Big Ten title.  Instead, they collapsed miserably.  Wisconsin has a ton of rebuilding to do this year, and may well be in a free fall when they come to Indiana.  This is a good opportunity for the Hoosiers to get a Big Ten win...it may be their first.  This is (potentially) a good rebound game after a tough trip to Iowa City.

November 14 - @ Penn State - Ouch.  The Nittany Lions are a tough team to beat in any venue.  Having to play at Beaver Stadium is just brutal.  Indiana would need a huge turnaround this season to win this one...or PSU would need a catastrophic collapse.

November 21 - Purdue - The season could end worse.  Purdue was an underperforming team last year, going only 2-6 in the Big Ten and 4-8 overall.  Will they be better this year?  They'd almost have to be.  A better question is: how banged up will Indiana be after playing @ Iowa, vs Wisconsin and @ Penn State?  This is Indiana's last hurrah for a season that will be less than spectacular...much less.  I consider this one a toss-up.  Luckily, the Hoosiers get to end it at home.  Perhaps that will be the difference.

Okay...so what?

Keeping the discussion solely about the schedule, rather than what Indiana has done to improve for the season: this is a so-so schedule.  They haven't loaded up on Top 25 opponents, but a team that's trying to rebound from a losing season doesn't really want a ton of stiff competition.  In that sense, Indiana's schedule is decent.  They'll have opportunity to find things to cheer about.

Those things will come largely in the first three games though.  Eastern Kentucky, Western Michigan and Akron will give the Hoosiers a good opportunity to get some wins and work on some things before getting into the meat of the schedule.  Western Michigan will provide some decent competition without getting overwhelmingly tough. 

Michigan is a good team to open the Big Ten schedule against because I don't think they'll be really rolling yet, if they even get to that point this year.  They'll be better than they were last year, by large strides, but not great.  That will give Indiana the opportunity to face a good team on the road and test their own improvements.  It also will set the stage for their conference season.  If they come out of Ann Arbor with a win, then they'll know they have the tools to beat at least two more teams and become bowl eligible.  If they lose, it'll be another long, hard year for the Hoosiers.

Ohio State, @ Iowa and @ Penn State are the toughest games on their schedule and they'll all be brutal.  OSU is OSU, Iowa is tough in Iowa City and PSU is still PSU. 

That leaves Virginia, Illinois, @ Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Purdue to really make their season.  All are technically winable if Indiana improves very much at all over last season.  All of them are also very losable, especially Illinois and @ Northwestern.  Assuming Indiana can win their first three games (which may be a big assumption), they can win three of these five and become bowl eligible.  Beat four of the five and they'll guarantee a 13th game...or beat three of them and Michigan...or....you get the picture. 

The good news is that Indiana doesn't have Michigan State on the schedule this year.  Failing to get Minnesota is a bit of a downer.  I don't know if they could beat the Gophers or not, but I'm sure they'd gladly trade the Ohio State date for one with Minnesota right about now.

Way too early prediction for Indiana's season:

It's really tough to predict what a team like Indiana will do when we don't even know who all the players will be yet.  There are so many more variables as well.  How good will Michigan be?  Can Wisconsin return to what they were supposed to be last year?  How quickly will Virginia pick up on thier new OC's program?  How much better will Illinois be?  What about Purdue?  Those questions will all play into how well the Hoosiers do in '09, among others. 

Given those variables, I'll likely update my opinions later in the summer to reflect what I see coming out of Bloomington over the spring/summer.  With what I have now, here's what I predict for IU in 2009:

Indiana will start their season 3-0 with a close call against Western Michigan.  They'll lose to an improved Michigan team, though they'll look much better themselves in that loss.  Ohio State is a loss, without question, making them 3-2 (0-2 Big Ten) when they travel to Virginia.  The Cavs might be a win at home, but I don't think it will be on the road.  Illinois, @ Northwester and @ Iowa will all be losses as well, though both the Illinois and NW games could be closer than you think.  That will leave the team at 3-6 overall, 0-5 in the Big Ten, when they host Wisconsin.  I'll throw the Hoosiers a bone and (way early) predict an "upset" over Wisconsin.  The game at Penn State is a loss, but I'll give them a closing win over Purdue to finish the season.  So:

Indiana will be: 5-7 overall, 2-6 in the Big Ten.  They'll be fighting with Purdue to stay out of the conference cellar.  

Still Hoosier fans, don't get too down.  The future does look brighter.  In a couple of years, Indiana could be mid-pack in the conference and playing in a bowl game somewhere.

Next up: a look at Michigan's schedule.

This was good therapy, but the itch still won't go away....