It's getting down to the wire for bowl games and the Big Ten is fighting for their rightful place.  Unfortunately, their rightful place will be denied because of a system that's critically flawed in virtually every aspect.  That's a whole other Oprah, though, and I'll address that in due time.  Still, there are several Big Ten teams that can still earn a very nice bowl game and help improve the Big Ten image.  Without further ado, let's take a quick look at the teams/games happening in week 12.

Northwestern @ Michigan

Northwestern enjoyed a brief BCS ranking, then had to face Ohio State.  Bye-bye BCS ranking.  This week could have been a great opportunity to re-enter the fray of ranked teams, but all of a sudden Michigan decided to show up to play some football.  This is almost a no-win situation for the Wildcats.  If they win this game, it gains no real attention from anyone because Michigan is 3-7, out of bowl contention, and off of anyone's radar as a competitive team.  If they lose, it's a huge hit to their credibility for the very same reasons.  Nevermind that Michigan just clobbered a Minnesota team that has looked very impressive all year long.  The Wildcats need to approach this game as though they're playing the Michigan of old, because they may well be.  They'll need to have strong play at the lines to afford their offense an opportunity to score some points.  Most importantly, they have to be able to provide steady pressure on both sides of the ball until Michigan starts making mistakes.  At 7-3, Northwestern is already locked into a bowl game.  The only question now is which one?  That'll depend on which Wildcat team can show up over the next two weeks: the one that started the season so strongly or the one that's lost 3 of their last 5, including Indiana.

Michigan is just looking for a little r-e-s-p-e-c-t.  Their big win over Minnesota turned some heads, at least among members of the Big Ten.  They're out of bowl contention completely, so there's nothing left to worry about except building momentum for 2009 and saving RichRod's job.  They have the talent to be a real force against any opponent, but they've just shot themselves in the foot over and over.  It's taken most of the season and they had to sell off one of the longest continuous bowl streaks in all of college football, but they may just be putting the pieces back together.  The game this week is a momentum builder.  Northwestern is suffering injuries and struggling to hold together what was a great season.  It's a good time for Michigan to meet up with them.  A win here can help propel them into their showdown with the Buckeyes next week.

Minnesota @ Wisconsin

Minnesota was duped last weekend.  They thought they were getting a Michigan team that was in shambles.  Instead they got blindsided by a team that dominated both sides of the ball from beginning to end.   The Golden Gophers have already solidified a spot in the post season, but getting to January 1st will be tricky.  Up this week is a resurging Wisconsin team that's starting to look more like it did before their five game meltdown, followed by Iowa that has, at times, looked as good as anyone in the Big Ten.  They'll need to at least split the games to make a case for a New Year's Day bowl game.  For their sake, I hope they learned a little something from last weeks game.  They need to watch tape to see where they can improve and for goodness sakes, don't take either of these two teams lightly.  Wisconsin has beaten Illinois, fought hard against Michigan State and plastered Indiana.  They're dangerous.  And Iowa has played everyone tough all year and finally learned how to win the close game last week against top five powerhouse Penn State.  If the Gophers get back to basics and play hard football, they can get a win, but they've got to put the gloves on tight, because this will be a prize fight to the finish.

Wisconsin is finding their stride.  Losing to MSU hurt a little bit simply because it was so close.  I don't care what the coaches or players say, a one point loss sticks in your craw for a while and nags at you.  "If only we'd" is a phrase that keeps running through your mind and the possibilities of what that extra win might mean eats at you.  They did a great job of rebounding in style against Indiana.  Obviously it was a game Wisconsin could win, but they won it convincingly and that indicates that they took the right attitude going into the game.  The Badgers are 5-5, which means they're certainly within range of getting a bowl game.  Just one win makes them eligible, but they'll need two wins to make it happen.  They have to get past Minnesota and they have the tools to get it done.  Their lines are strong, they have an effective running game and are looking better and better on defense.  If they take it to Minnesota, they can certainly win.  That'll make them bowl eligible going into their game against Cal Poly.  Basically, this is the last chance for Wisconsin to make a case that they belong in a bowl game.  Lose this one and it won't matter how badly they beat up on Cal Poly, it won't get them their 13th game.

This game will come down to who wants it more.

Ohio State @ Illinois

Any chance of the Buckeyes going to the NCG went out the window when they lost a heartbreaker to Penn State.  So they thought they were playing for a trip to Pasadena.  Then Penn State lost to Iowa.  Now, where will the Buckeyes land?  Basically, Pasadena is still a possiblity, but they need to be big Spartan fans for that to pan out.  If MSU beats PSU, the Buckeyes will be conference champions by virtue of smoking the Spartans a month ago.  If not, PSU goes to the Rose Bowl and OSU has to hope for an at-large bid into the BCS.  All of that is null and void if OSU can't get past Illinois and records aside, that's not going to be an easy task.  Illinois is still a strong team, just one that seems to shoot themselves in the foot.  Illinois is particularly tough at home.  Buckeye fans have certainly not forgotten that it was Juice Williams and Co. that knocked them off only a season or two ago. 

Illinois is in much the same position Iowa was in a week ago.  They haven't beaten anyone of note all year, unless you consider Michigan a team of note and they definitely weren't.  They've lost to Missouri, Penn State, Minnesota,  Wisconsin and Western Michigan while beating Eastern Illinois, Louisiana-Lafayette, Michigan, Indiana and snuck past Iowa.  They're .500 on the year, but haven't proven that they are deserving of a bowl game.  This is their big chance to prove something to their fans, themselves and the rest of college football.  OSU may not have the respect they deserve on the national scale, but they're still the same powerful Buckeyes that have terrorized the Big Ten for basically ever.  A win against them would make the Illini bowl eligible and make a very strong case that they deserve a post season. 

Indiana @ Penn State

Indiana is a big disappointment this year.  Last season, an emotional Hoosier team punched, kicked and scratched their way to a bowl game.  They had high hopes of building on that this year and maybe throwing their hat into a slightly bigger arena.  Unfortunately, they've moved backward instead of forward.  They're out of the bowl picture with two games still to go and the only win they have in the Big Ten was a shocker over Northwestern.  They were hoping for an 8 or 9 win season, but they've likely won all the games they're going to this year.  This week they travel to a Penn State team that will desperately want and need to make a big statement after a heartbreaking loss that knocked them out of the National Title hunt.  Indiana is going to have to take the brunt of a very angry Nittany Lion.

Everyone in the nation has heard about Penn State slipping against Iowa.  I won't beat that down here.  It's only unfortunate that it happened this late in the season and that Iowa doesn't get the credit they deserve which is then passed onto the Lions.  This week they need to do what everyone thought they should do last week: win in style.  Anything less than an enormously embarrasing, kick-you-while-you're-down victory will only work against PSU.  Especially because, standing in the wings is a Spartan team that knows they still have a chance to go to Pasadena in January.  They'll be watching very closely to see how PSU handles the emotional letdown this week and trying to pick out any weakness that they might be able to exploit next week.  Penn State needs to just put all bowl talk aside for now and concentrate on the task at hand: destroying a very weak Hoosier team in front of their home crowd.  In my opinion, they're still one of the best teams in the nation.  This week is a good chance to remind themselves that they are and let the rest fall into place.

My Game of the Week

Purdue @ Iowa

Purdue shouldn't be this bad.  They have an offense that can put points on the board.  But their defense is laughable at best.  Actually, Purdue did put up two respectable performances against Ohio State and Penn State, but the rest of the season they just laid down and got steamrolled by lesser teams.  If they can find that same defensive spark against Iowa that they had against the Buckeyes and Lions, they could pull of a win this week in Kinnick Stadium and make Iowa re-evaluate their program yet again.  They're going to find the going tough, though, as they're facing a defense that rivals anyone in the nation. 

Iowa can't get too high on themselves.  I'll be the first to say that I think Iowa should be a top 25 team and could give anyone a run for their money.  But the Hawkeyes can't forget that they're not a top 25 team, they're 6-4 and they lost to Illinois - a team that probably won't see a bowl game this year.  The win last week was a classic and should give this program the credibility they've been desperately seeking all year long.  Unfortunately, most of the nation is just looking at it as a slap in PSU's face rather than giving Iowa their due.  My advice would be to get angry.  Be angry that not enough people recognize your offensive prowess.  Get angry that, despite having one of the best defenses in college football, no one thinks you're a team worth getting too worked up about.  Get angry that losing three straight games by a total of 9 points to three teams that are, were, and still could be, ranked in the top 25, isn't enough to make that PSU victory look natural.  Get angry...then take it out on Purdue.  But be careful.  This could be a "trap game" of sorts for you too.  Purdue may have no defense of note, but they did hold OSU/PSU to respectably low numbers and their offense has lit up quite a few defenses this year.  Don't overlook them.  Get angry, play the kind of ball you know how to play and show the country that the Iowa Hawkeyes are really a 9-1 team stuck in a 6-4 package.

Also...

Michigan State - BYE

It's the time of year for teams to suddenly become big fans of other teams.  Michigan State is in the unenviable position to be one of those teams now.  After playing ten straight weeks, the Spartans finally get a chance to catch their breath, evaluate their casualties and watch the bowl picture unfold in front of them.  They are only partially in control of their destiny, but their hopes of a trip to the Rose Bowl aren't dashed just yet.  If either Illinois or Michigan can score an upset over Ohio State, then the Spartans jump past them in the Big Ten pecking order.  It's unlikely that Indiana will take Penn State out of the picture, but the Spartans get the honor of that opportunity themselves in two weeks.  So, for this week, the boys in green and white need to donn thier orange and blue.  If Ohio State wins out, it doesn't matter what the Spartans do against the Nittany Lions, they won't be going to Pasadena, so the Illini are their only hope.  If Illinois can't get it done, then State needs to become new fans of their in-state rivals for the final week of the season.  Those are the only two scenarios that will find MSU in California to ring in the New Year. 

That shouldn't distract the Spartans from the big issue, however.  All the scenario talk in the world will be moot if they can't beat Penn State in Happy Valley next week.  They'd better take this week for what it's worth: a chance to rest, put together a killer game plan and psych themselves up for a real fight.  It wouldn't hurt to get a set of Illini pom-poms though. 

 

That's my first look at the teams in the Big Ten for this week.  I know it was less about the games than about the bowl picture, but at this point, I think everyone knows what the teams are capable of.  I'm planning on having my picks up tomorrow, so check back in. 

In the meantime I know PSPKNINE has his picks up and I'm sure SEABASS will too shortly.

Good luck and Happy Bowl Hunting!

P.S.     As the bowl picture becomes more official, I'll post the matchups and treat those games the same way I do Big Ten games with a First Look and Picks with updates.  I'll likely throw in a few non-Big Ten bowls too, just for kicks, so stay tuned!

I'm getting a jump start on my picks this week.  I usually wait until a little later, but it's not getting any better, so I'll go ahead and lay them out. 

Everything points to this week being pretty cut and dry, but it's crunch time for several teams fighting for bowl eligibility.  I see a couple of potential upsets waiting out there...

I had a fairly average week, which beats the bejeezus out of what I did last week.  Looking at PSPKNINE'S and SEABASS' picks, we all were pretty equal this week.  Onto the updates!  By the way....I'm getting into the spirit a little late.  The Iowa fans had a "Greene Out" to show support for Shonn Greene's Heisman chase.  Thought I'd choose green as my update color to join in and show my support as well.  If it's hard to read, I apologize, just let me know and I'll make sure to use a different color next time.

Illinois @ Western Michigan

It's another MAC attack on the Big Ten, but will Illinois break the string of Big Ten failure?  Most likely, yes.  Western Michigan is a solid MAC team, but a solid MAC team should have trouble with a poor Big Ten team, and Illinois isn't poor. 

What I'd do if I was Illinois'...

OC: throw every play in the book at them.  It's not that their defense is anything I'd be particularly afraid of, but when else will you get to pull out that double-reverse-flea-flicker-half-back- pass?  May as well use it now, just for kicks...  Seriously, though, stick with the girl that brung ya.  As Juice goes, so goes the team, right Zook? 

DC:  Give your line a huge pat on the back.  Iowa's O-Line was supposed to be pretty tough and you blew them apart.  Do the same this week and this game is a walk away.

What I'd do if I was Western Michigan's....

OC:  Quick pass.  Don't give the Illini defensive line enough time to get at your QB.  Your running backs probably aren't going to have a ton of success, at least not in big chunks, so use the quick slants and quick outs to pull their linebackers away from the line a little.  Remember...it's all about moving the chains.

DC:  It shouldn't be a big mystery.  Key on Williams.  Blitz if that's what you need to do, but get at him.  For God's sake, though, don't blitz the cornerback from two miles out like Iowa tried to do.  Juice is much too fast.  Bring the LB"s.  Stack the box and get at him.

What will likely happen:  Western Michigan will make a good show of it, at least for the first half.  Then Illinois will dominate on both sides of the ball and walk away with this one.

Illinois 33 - Western Michigan 17

Actual: Western Michigan 23 - Illinois 17

I came very close to picking Western Michigan in this game, but opted for the Big Ten team instead.  Hawk fans well remember that Western Michigan burned them twice at the end of the season.  Last season, they kept Iowa from a 13th game.  Remembering that, I dearly wanted to pick them to win.  But Illinois isn't Iowa and I thought Williams would confuse the Bronco D sufficiently to get the win.  That didn't happen and suddenly things look very bleak for the Fighting Illini.  Coming into the season they were hoping to return to the Rose Bowl and maybe even make a case for something bigger.  Now they're 5-5 (3-3 Big Ten) and will need to win out just to secure a bowl game.  With Ohio State on tap next and a trip to meet Northwestern in their final game, Illinois will be lucky to finish the season with a .500 record. 

Wisconsin @ Indiana

Wisconsin is definitely coming around.  They should have won against MSU, but sometimes it takes baby steps to get where you're going.  Indiana is a great opportunity for Wisconsin to make a statement.  That statement would be "we're baaaaaaaack"

What I would do if I was Wisconsin's...

OC:  Pound the ball down their throat.  You're Wisconsin, for crying out loud, not Northwestern.  You don't need the spread offense, at least not yet.  Play good old fashioned Badger Ball.  Beat them into submission, then do a little passing tap dance on their face.  You know you like that kind of football anyway, so why fight it? 

DC:  Get at the QB, whoever that may end up being this week.  Indiana's O-Line shouldn't provide too much trouble for you, but just in case, have a couple of blitz packages ready.  Just watch your secondary.  Oh yeah...and put some duct tape on Bielema's mouth.  That unsportsmanlike penalty was just stupid.  A good coach knows how far to push the argument and when to walk away, having probably had his argument fall on deaf ears in the first place.

What I'd do if I was Indiana's...

OC:  Your instructions are the same as Western Michigan's.  Work the short pass.  Wisconsin is going to get pressure on your QB, so don't give them time to get too far.  Your RB is going to get a workout, too.  Work the perimeter.  You won't get anywhere up the middle so try the sweep and keep that screen pass open.  If time allows, go for the deep ball.  The Badger secondary got picked apart last week, so give them a try.  Unfortunately, you won't have time.

DC:  Your pass rush was better against CMU, thanks to blitzes.  Keep running on those tracks.  Your D-Line won't be able to get much pressure on Sherer by themselves.  He's proven to be fumble prone if you can get to him, so throw the kitchen sink at him.  It may be your only real hope.

What will happen: Wisconsin's O-Line is healthy and strong.  Their defense is as good as anyone's.  Indiana is in big trouble.

Wisconsin: 31 - Indiana 10

Actual: Wisconsin 55 - Indiana 20

That's a pretty good thumping, but I'm not surprised.  As I said in my pick, Wisconsin appears to be quickly getting back on track.  At 5-5, the Badgers are not where they expected to be at this point in the season, but they have a solid shot at making a bowl game and after 5 straight losses mid-season, that's saying something.  They have to get past Minnesota before they get Cal Poly to end the season, but I wouldn't put it past the Red and White to make that happen.  Indiana is officially out of the bowl hunt altogether.  I want to feel sorry for the team that gutted out a 13th game last year, but someone has to be the whipping post for Big Ten teams needing to get back on track and I'm glad it's not Iowa!

Michigan @ Minnesota

Geez, what a mismatch this game should be.  Michigan stinks.  Minnesota doesn't.  Need I say more?

What I'd do if I was Michigan's...

OC:  forfeit.

DC:  forfeit.

What I'd do if I was Minnesota's...

OC:  Do everything you've done all season, only make it look ten times better.

DC:  ditto...

What will likely happen:  Minnesota had a letdown last week, but they'll be fired up this week.  Michigan can try all they like, but they're no match for Minnesota this year.  It'll be a bloodbath.

Minnesota: 42 - Michigan 20

Actual: Michigan 29 - Minnesota 6

I don't even know what to think about this.  Minnesota: what happened?  I'll tell you what's about to happen if you don't figure it out.  Your Cinderella season will crash and burn.  Given how consistently poor Michigan has played all year and how well Minnesota has played all year, I wouldn't have picked this outcome if a Wolverine fan had paid me to.  But just when you think you're getting a feel for things, Michigan peeks their head in the door and decides to play a game.  Now the question is: can we expect this kind of play out of Michigan from here on out or was this a one-and-done anomoly?  The Wolverines have Northwestern and Ohio State to close out their season, so they'd better hope this game was a sign of things to come.  As for Minnesota, at 7-3, they're pretty well locked into a bowl game.  The question is: what kind of bowl game?  They have two weeks to figure it out, but have to travel to resurgent Wisconsin and then host an Iowa team that will present the toughest defense they'll meet all season.  It won't be easy to get anything better than a mid-to-lower level bowl.

Purdue @ Michigan State

This one could actually be interesting.  It shouldn't be...but it could.  Purdue's offense tends to put up big numbers against everyone but OSU and PSU.  On the other hand, their defense couldn't stop a feather blowing in the wind.  The final score will depend on MSU's ability to slow down the Boilermakers.  Do they let it turn into a shootout or do they turn this into a one-sided smackdown?

What I'd do if I was Purdue's....

OC:  Wisconsin had success running against the Spartans.  Your O-Line doesn't quite stack up to Wisconsin's, but it might be enough, particularly if Siller gets the start.  If he does, you have a whole new set of weapons at your disposal, so use them just as you did against Michigan.  State would much rather clobber a fairly stationary Painter than chase after a mobile Siller.  Whether Painter's healthy or not, I'd let him "rest" another week.

DC:  You've got your work cut out for you.  Key on Ringer and you open the door for Hoyer.  Watch Hoyer too long and Ringer will run right by you.  Hang on tight and do the best you can.  Key on Ringer, slow him down and hope your secondary can do enough to keep you in the game.  Then pray your offense can do the rest.

What I'd do if I was Michigan State's...

OC:  You know what to do.  Purdue's defense is in a constant state of confusion.  Just keep mixing things up between Hoyer and Ringer and you should find your way to the endzone often.

DC:  Your game plan could be altered from what you first expected.  If Siller starts this game, imagine you're playing Illinois.  Stop the QB and you stop the offense.  If Painter starts, you have a less mobile target to go after.  Block him into the pocket and play pinball with his still-attached helmet.

What will likely happen:  Here's the conundrum:  Purdue puts up points.  Michigan State puts up points.  It seems so clear that Michigan State's defense would be more than sufficient to provide the difference.  However, Purdue could turn this into a real shootout and surprise some people in the end.  What's more, MSU could be looking well ahead of this game, thinking it's in the bag.  That could be very, very bad.  I'm going to go waaaaay out on a limb here and pick the upset.

Purdue 33- Michigan State 30

Actual: Michigan State 21 - Purdue 7

I suppose I should apologize to MSU fans for picking against them in this game.  In my defense, I felt an upset somewhere and this looked like the kind of game MSU could blow off.  From what I've read and heard (I didn't get to see this game either), it was a turnover fest.  That's not the kind of thing MSU needs, but turnovers aside, MSU got it done.  Now they have a week off to think about Penn State.  With only 1 loss in the conference, the Spartans are still in the hunt for a share of the conference title.  It's November and anything can happen.

Ohio State @ Northwestern

This should probably be the game of the week, but I'm an Iowa fan, so that's not going to happen.  Northwestern's offense is explosive and their defense is....okay.  However, their defense did come up big against Minnesota in the end.  Still, we're not talking about Minnesota's offense, we're talking about Ohio State's.  They have a different approach and more overall talent.  It wasn't easy against Minnesota, it'll be much tougher against the Buckeyes.

What I'd do if I was Ohio State's....

OC:  Run Wells.  Your defense is capable of slowing down Northwestern's offense, so wear down their defense.  Yeah, you have plenty of other tools at your disposal and you can use them at will, but center your offensive attack around the run early.  You're coming off a bye week, so everyone should be well rested.  Run, run run.  Then, when the Wildcats are gasping for air, pick them apart at will.

DC:  Expect Kafka to start again.  Bacher is mostly healthy, but I can't fathom that NW will start him after the performance Kafka put in last week.  He's very mobile and has a cannon for an arm, so you'll have your work cut out to reel him in.  Turn Little Animal loose on him and keep him in check with blitzes and heavy rush.  The NW ground game isn't really all that, but don't ignore it completely.  It'll all depend on which QB gets the call.  Shut down Kafka and expect Bacher to come back in.  Either way, you have to get someone into the backfield to disrupt things. 

What I'd do if I was Northwestern's....

OC:  Give all due respect to Bacher, but keep him ready on the bench.  Kafka is your new man.  He's more mobile and basically gives you an extra running back who knows how to throw the ball.  You won't be able to get the rushing numbers you got against Minnesota, but you can still move the ball well.  Especially if the Buckeyes don't know who exactly will be carrying the ball.  Work the option.  I hate the option, but work the option.  While you have LB's scrambling after the running QB, he can unload on an unsuspecting secondary.

DC:  The key to this game will be how well you can handle the OSU attack.  Key on the running game and try with all your might to make OSU a one-sided team.  If that fails, blitz for all you're worth.  You have to get results at the line.  Point, blank and period. 

What will likely happen:  Northwestern could make this really exciting.  I'm even a little tempted to pick an upset here, but I just can't.  The Buckeyes are too balanced for NW.  The Wildcats may have found the missing piece to their offensive puzzle, their defense is still lacking too much, while the Buckeye defense is stout.  Balance will overcome explosiveness.

Ohio State 38 - Northwestern 28

Actual: Ohio State 45 - Northwestern 10

Well, I was just a weee bit off picking the score.  It's not really surprising though.  I don't think OSU took that loss to PSU very well.  I also think they're taking the public thrashing a little personally.   NW was outclassed every step of the way. 

My Game of the Week

Penn State @ Iowa

There is a very simple explanation for Iowa's collapse against Illinois: the play of the O-Line.  Anyone who knows line play knows that cohesiveness is absolutely crucial for success.  Iowa was missing a key link in their chain with Seth Olsen out of the lineup.  Olsen is supposedly back this week, which means the O-Line could be back in form.  Not to make excuses, but one man can affect the performance of everyone around them.  With Olsen back, the line should perform better than it's dismal showing against the Illini.  That can change the entire outlook of the game.  With Iowa's defense as stout as it's ever been, PSU will have to work to get into the end zone and Mitch King is seriously ticked off at losing last week.  He's not a man you want ticked off.  Iowa will be playing with a fire in their bellies this week.  But...

Penn State has everything to lose.  They were looked over in favor of Texas Tech in the BCS standings and the only way to ensure that they get a shot at the National Championship is to win out and remain undefeated on the season.  They know that Iowa can be dangerous to them, so they won't be taking this game lightly.  What's more, they're coming off a bye week, so they'll be fully rested, as healed as they're going to be and will have had plenty of time to evaluate every aspect of Iowa's game.  They have the tools and the motivation to mop the field in Black and Gold.

What I'd do if I was Penn State's....

OC:  I said it last week and I'll say it again: take what Iowa gives you.  The mid-range attack is Iowa's Achilles Heel.  How many times last week did we see Illinois connect for a 7 yard pass to either move the sticks or put them into great position to move the sticks?  They gave you the road map, so use it.  Your offensive line will have to be on top of their game, though.  Mitch King and Matt Kroul will push them around and find their way into the backfield.  I don't care who you are, these guys can't be stopped outright.  Quick drops and short passes are the key.  Your running game will find moderate success, but not near the goal line.  Your best bet is to use both the pass and the run in perfect balance.  Keep guys like AJ Edds and Pat Angerer guessing, but be careful...both are pretty good at picking off passes and breaking up plays.

DC:  Illinois also showed you the road map here.  Get at Ricki Stanzi.  He's a very good quarterback...in training.  With plenty of time, he's golden.  On a short run, he's even more golden.  But when he's better served stepping up in the pocket and making the play, he gets frustrated and does something stupid.  What's more, he has a tendency to play only half the field, so just keep an eye on the direction his helmet is facing.  He rarely looks the other way, so you can probably play on just half a field.  Shonn Greene has rushed for 9 straight 100 yard games and may well make it 10 against you, but if you shut down Stanzi, it really won't matter much what Greene does.  Rattle the young man under center and you'll make Iowa a one-dimensional team again. 

What I'd do if I was Iowa's....

OC:  Ken O'Keefe, you've got to get the play calls in to your QB quickly.  That nonsense of waiting until there's 5 seconds on the play clock doesn't work against anyone and you just end up burning important timeouts.  Okay, enough about that.  As for a game plan, run the ball.  You've got a great backup in Jewel Hampton, so (for this game) use both Greene and Hampton.  Use the run early to guage the performance of the O-Line and setup the play action fake.  Don't jump to it immediately.  Of course, part of this will depend on the defense's ability to slow down PSU's attack, but if they're keeping it close, don't panic.  Stick to your game plan.  Think: Greene 200 yards, Hampton 100.  It won't happen, but if you have that as a frame of reference, maybe you'll give the run game a shot.  Then take what you give.  Work the short pass, especially to the TE.  Most of all...protect the ball!!!

DC:  Norm, you know you don't have to worry about your line.  King and Kroul are on a mission and they're ticked off.  Let them do their thing.  Work on the secondary.  Edds and Angerer are going to have to be very mobile this week and keep them moving to the ball.  Your CB's and safeties are going to have know their assignments and keep to them.  That blown coverage TD against Illinois was embarrasing.  Hound your guys all week long to stick to their assignments until they're seeing you in their dreams shouting at them to stick to their assignments!  If King/Kroul and Co. are getting into the backfield and your guys are where they're supposed to be, the long ball will be eliminated and you can play the kind of defense you've played all year.  Most importantly...no one scores in our house.  That's got to be your motto this week.  PSU will more than test your resolve on this issue.  Lastly, bring it to them.  Show them you're not afraid of them and attack like you mean it.

What will likely happen: There are big questions as to the strength of the Iowa O-Line after last week.  The play of that line may make all the difference in this game.  If they're back on, this could be a real thriller.  If they're off, forget about it.  I'm betting they're on.  This will be a defensive throw down, backyard brawl.  Iowa won't be intimidated by the spread offense and PSU won't be afraid of Shonn Greene.  In the end, it'll come down to which offense can make the final strike.  I know everyone will think I'm insane, but I'm going with the upset.

Iowa 23 - Penn State 21

Actual: Iowa 24 - Penn State 23

I have to give Kirk Ferentz a little credit for chosing Daniel Murray to kick the final field goal instead of Mossbrucker.  Murray is the better kicker in my opinion and this was the biggest game of the year for the Hawkeyes.  That aside, this was a GREAT game (and not just because my Hawks won).  Truth be told, the Lions dominated this game in every aspect for three quarters with one very big exception: the score.  PSU held the ball for an astounding 23 minutes (and change) in the first half, leaving Iowa less than 7 to try and do something.  Ricki Stanzi couldn't even get his arms thawed out in that short amount of time.  JoePa's crew methodically moved the ball a few yards at a time, consistently getting 3rd and short situations that they converted easily.  However, Iowa's defense, always of the "bend but don't break" attitude, did just that, forcing the Lions into two field goals and only one touchdown. 

I have to mention this because it's been on my mind since watching the game.  Everyone (including the ESPN announcers) wondered why on earth Iowa allowed so much time to run off the clock at the end of the first half when they had all three timeouts at their disposal.  Did anyone else notice the looks on the players faces as they made two consecutive first downs and moved the ball steadily down the field?  It was an "aha" moment for the Hawkeyes and especially Ricki Stanzi.  For the first time all game, that offense realized that they could move the ball against Penn State through the air with consistency.  Up until then it was a game of inches for the Hawks, and even the inches were scarce.  Suddenly, the O-Line realized they could give Stanzi enough time to throw and the receivers realized they could find places to get open.  Everything changed after that.

The second half was a different ballgame altogether.  Iowa's offense found a leader in young Stanzi and the pass game came into effect.  That opened the door for Shonn Greene to get his tenth straight 100 yard game and kept Iowa in a game that could have gotten ugly quickly.  It also allowed the defense an opportunity to catch their breath and get a second wind.  Most importantly, it got the crowd back in the game, which fired up the whole Iowa team.

For Penn State's part, they played their game and played it well.  Yes, they had a few penalties, but give credit where credit is due.  They had a couple of holding penalties, which you can't blame when Mitch King started blowing past their line and getting into the backfield.  They had to do something and hoped they wouldn't get caught.  Everyone does that.  They did have a very costly pass interference call, but again, the safety was going for the ball and just misjudged his timing.  That could happen to anyone and the game was in the balance.  Better to get the penalty than give up the six points.  They controlled the ball on offense and made Shonn Greene get his yards the hard way: a couple at a time. 

In the end, this game came down to a pass floated in the wind and a team that refused to lose another close game.  This game had stout defenses flexing their muscles, potent offenses pulling out the stops and a ton of heart all laid on the line in a one point thriller.  I'd vote it for an instant classic, but then again, I'm partial.

Alright folks, there they are.  Pick them apart; do your worst.  I'll be around throughout the week to defend myself as best I can. 

Well, I was 3-3 on the week.  That's not great, but considering no one predicted Michigan to beat Minnesota, or Western Michigan to beat Illinois, I don't feel too bad about it.  Thanks to everyone for checking out my picks and leaving some great comments.  I'll be back tomorrow for a first look at week 12 and should have my picks up by Tuesday.  Good luck to all this coming week. 

If you haven't already, be sure to check out these other Big Ten sites.  They've picked a couple different than I have, and they're definitely a good read.

SEABASS2003

PSPKNINE

Happy Bowl Hunting!

Week ten saw a lot of great Big Ten action, a couple of "upsets" and some thrillers that came down to the wire.  It was an interesting week, but it's time to put it past us and move on.  We have some great matchups coming ahead and there are a few teams that still need to lock in a bowl for the season.  Here's a quick look at what's going on around the Big Ten this coming weekend.

Illinois @ Western Michigan

I'm beginning to get really nervous about Big Ten teams vs. MAC teams.  Michigan lost to Toledo, Indiana lost to Central Michigan and last year Iowa lost to Western Michigan. 

Illinois is coming off a nice win against Iowa.  They weren't able to hold Shonn Greene under 100 yards, but it really didn't matter.  Their defense stood up and sacked Ricki Stanzi six times en route to a 27-24 win over the Hawkeyes (the first time in the last 5 outings).  With OSU and NW rounding out the Illini season, they need this win to make themselves bowl eligible.  It's not that they can't beat either of the last two teams, but they won't beat them both, so they need their sixth win now, allowing them to dig for their seventh win (and thus a bowl lock) in their last two.  Illinois' defense came up big against Iowa, recovering a fumble for a TD and holding the Hawkeyes to only field goals through the first half.  This is a good chance to build on that before facing the Buckeyes on the 15th.

Don't take Western Michigan too lightly though.  They have a 7-2 record with their two losses being to Central Michigan and Nebraska.  They're fairly physical on defense and could cause some problems for the Illinois' one-sided offense.  This game will really depend on whether or not Illinois comes out looking ahead to OSU or if they come out focused on the team in front of them.  Either way, it could be a lot closer than Illinois would like.

Wisconsin @ Indiana

Wisconsin is coming off a heartbreaking loss to MSU by just one point.  This Badger team is looking a lot better than the one that got clobbered by Iowa a few weeks back.  They're much more physical on defense and giving their offense better opportunities to move the ball and score points.  This is a great game for them to rebound from that loss and get back into a bowl hunt.  They're 4-5 now, but have Indiana, Minnesota and Cal Poly to finish out the season.  A win here puts them just one win away from bowl eligibility and Cal Poly should provide that win.  Minnesota will be the big question.

Indiana can't  find consistency with a shovel, flashlight and 22 pairs of hands.  They upset Northwestern two weeks ago, but fell to MAC power Central Michigan last week.  In fairness, they didn't look horrible against Central, they just couldn't get it done.  This game won't be easy for the Hoosiers.  If they'd gotten Wisconsin three weeks ago, I might have said they had a shot, but the Badgers are playing a lot better now than they were then.  Indiana's going to have to find a spark they haven't had most of the season.  Who knows?  Maybe they can pull out another upset like they did against the Wildcats.  I doubt it, though.  Wisconsin football is nothing like Wildcat football and the Hoosiers are going to have their hands full.

Michigan @ Minnesota

Michigan has fallen about as far as they can fall this year.  Purdue was just the latest to take the opportunity to kick a Wolverine team that's down.  I really thought Michigan might be able to jump up on the Boilermakers and pin them down, but they weren't able to do that.  Now comes a Minnesota team that has looked good all season.  What's more, they get the Golden Gophers on a week where they're looking for revenge.  I don't see this week going well for Michigan.  I'm guessing the folks in West Virginia are more than a little tickled at what's happened to RR in his first year in Ann Arbor.

Minnesota lost a thriller to a last second pick from NW that was returned for a TD.  No doubt, many of the players and coaches are still in shock, wishing they could rewind the clock and replay that down.  You can bet, though, that as this week winds down and Saturday approaches, the Gophers will have moved on from shock to anger and they'll be looking to prove they're still one of the best in the Big Ten.  To do that, they need to not only beat Michigan, but beat them soundly.  They haven't had a lot of great opportunities to do that over the years, but this isn't one of those years.  Michigan is at the bottom of the barrel this year and Minnesota would love to rub it in.

Purdue @ #18 Michigan State

Ahhh Purdue.  Purdue, Purdue, Purdue.  What will we do with you?  Pick you to lose most likely.  The Boilermakers earned a little (very little mind you) respect by beating Michigan, but they get the Wolverines bigger brother (yeah, I said it) this week.  Purdue put up a lot of points last week, but didn't keep Michigan from putting up some big points either.  The Spartan defense will be tough enough to make the Boilermakers work for it and their offense will just murder the nonexistent Boilermaker D.  I don't see the Boilermakers being able to stop both Ringer and Hoyer. 

Michigan State survived a tough one against Wisconsin.  I'm sure there are several people out there (non Big Ten fans especially) who will say that narrow win just shows that MSU isn't as good as their rank because it was against a team with a losing record.  I'll say the same thing MSU should say....bite me.  Wisconsin is not the pushover they're laid out to be, especially on defense.  Michigan State did what they needed to do to get the win.  Now they get a Purdue team that has no defense.  This will be a great chance for Ringer and Hoyer to both add mad stats to their season. 

#12 Ohio State @ Northwestern

Ohio State is coming off a bye week and that usually spells doom.  Give any team a week to rest and think about things and they can usually put together a pretty good game.  This will be their first game after that narrow loss to the Nittany Lions.  Both of these are bad things for a Northwestern team that has been a little inconsistent lately.  The Buckeyes are still  fighting to keep their chances of a Rose Bowl appearance alive and well.  PSU will likely be playing in a BCS bowl, but behind them, the race is wide open.  Passadena is pretty nice in January...or so I hear.

Northwestern, after beating Iowa, lost to Michigan State, beat Purdue, lost to Indiana (????), then snuck out a last second win over Minnesota.  I can see the loss to MSU, and beating Minnesota is a very nice win, but losing to Indiana?  I hate to jump back two weeks here folks, but that loss still baffles me.  What the hell happened there???  More importantly, what does it really mean for the team?  They got a huge boost with that win over the Gophers, but if I were them, I'd be praying not to have loose screws rolling around, like evidently happened against the Hoosiers.  Still, this is a talented, well coached Wildcat team, and I think they'll put up a good showing against the Buckeyes.  Win or lose, this should be a decent game. 

My Game of the Week

#3 Penn State @ Iowa

The Nittany Lions were watching and rooting for a Texas Tech victory over their neighbors, the Longhorns of Texas.  An upset should have probably landed Penn State in the #2 spot in the BCS rankings and put them in the driver's seat for a National Championship Game.  Texas Tech got the win....then took PSU's #2 ranking away from them.  So....for another week or so, JoePa and Company will have to stay on the outside looking in.  But their future is still in their hands and they travel to Iowa City to face a Hawkeye team that, at times has looked very tough, and at others has looked disoriented.  The Lions know all about Shonn Greene and won't be afraid to take their attack at him.  They too are coming off a bye week and are fully rested to face the Hawkeyes on their home turf.  For PSU, this needs to be a statement game and I'm sure they're  ready for the supposed "trap game" in front of them.

Iowa had a bad stretch in the middle of the season that they had apparently snapped out of.  However, after annihilating Indiana and Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes dropped a narrow one to Illinois at Champaign.  Illinois was able to penetrate the usually stout offensive line and put a lot of pressure on young QB Ricki Stanzi, sacking him six times.  The Lion defense is more potent than the Illini one is, so Iowa is going to have to find some way of strengthening a line that is falling victim to injuries.  Iowa's defense will be pumped up, though, so this could well turn into a defensive battle, old school style.  Iowa's D secondary doesn't get a lot of the credit they deserve and they'll force PSU to take the shorter passes. 

If Iowa's defense can keep them in the game, this could rival the OSU/PSU game in intensity and closeness.  I'm looking forward to some good old smash mouth football.

 

Alright folks, I'll be back in a day or two to put my picks up here.  I've gotten good response to the new format, so I'll try it again this week.  Happy Bowl Hunting!

 

Why the "PLUS", you ask?  I'm trying something new this week.  Instead of giving "two reasons" each team might win, I'm instead going to do a section for each game called "what I'd do if I was...".  I'll let you see for yourself what that's about, but please let me know what you think.  This is just a trial.

On with the picks.

Indiana vs Central Michigan

Indiana's coming off a big win last week over Northwestern and get a seemingly powder-puff MAC team.  Indiana, be careful.  CMU may be a MAC team, but they're the top of the MAC and they had a decent game against Purdue.  Yes, I know....Purdue...but they still did pretty well against a Big Ten team, however weak Purdue may be.  They won't be as afraid of you as you may think.

What I would do if I was Indiana's....

OC:  Pound the ground.  You've got two decent RB's in Marcus Thigpen and Bryan Payton.  Nothing wears down a defense faster than having to stop the run over and over and over.  Payton is beginning to look like a very solid runner.  He would be perfect for picking up three or four yards and keeping you in short distance to the sticks.  That should open up the pass game for Lewis or Chappel, whichever happens to be under center that particular drive.

DC: You know you're defense isn't great, but you did force 13 third-down situations against NW's offense.  CMU has a pretty good QB in Dan LeFevour, who should be healthy.  Concentrate on getting pressure on him.  How healthy is he?  How well does he move?  How well does he throw on the move?  Find those things out early.  Throw in a handful of blitzes, then drop back into zone.  Keep him guessing and keep him moving.  By the end of the first quarter, you should have a pretty good idea what he's capable fo doing.  You can adjust from there.

HC: Keep reminding your team that this is team is no pushover.  You can't afford to get cocky against the Chippewas.  They beat Toledo...who beat Michigan....don't make the Big Ten suffer a second loss to a MAC team.

What I would do if I was Central Michigan's...

DC: Blitz.  Blitz like there is no tomorrow.  Indiana's O-Line is picked apart and put back together with duct tape.  It shouldn't be too hard to confuse them and force them to make some mistakes.  Keep pressure on the QB's and plug up the holes their RB's would like to run through.  It won't take long and they'll begin to look like the Indiana the Big Ten is used to seeing.

OC: Spread the wealth.  Don't give Indiana anything in particular they can key on.  They'll know your QB may be less than healthy and may try to pick on him.  So mix things up.  Make them gun shy to come after your QB too hard for fear they'll be seeing the backside of your RB on his way to the endzone.  Then burn them with the long ball.  Pull out every play in the book and keep them guessing.

What'll likely happen: Central Michigan is going to keep this a lot closer than it should be.  They might even lead for a while...but Indiana's tasted a good victory and they want more. 

Indiana 24 - Central Michigan 20

Actual: Central Michigan 37 - Indiana 34

Well, I knew this would likely be closer than the Hoosiers would like, but I really hoped Indiana could pull out the win.  Brunner just smoked the Hoosier D (34/52, 463 yrds, 4 TD's).  Central Michigan may be a MAC team, but they're no pushover.  I guess Michigan doesn't have to feel alone now.  I can already hear the SEC fans....

Purdue vs Michigan

Both of these teams have been dreadful for most of this year.  Why, oh why, did the Big Ten Network choose to broadcast this game over...oh...say....Iowa @ Illinois??  Anyway, both teams are looking at this game as a good opportunity to boost their Big Ten standings a little.  Only one can come away with the "W", and it better be Michigan if they dont' want to get laughed clear out of the Big Ten.

What I'd do if I was Purdue's....

OC: Run the ball.  Run...the...ball.  Your top two QB's are out with injury and you're using a third stringer who was playing a completely different position just a few days ago.  You can't count a consistent pass attack, so let Sheets carry the ball.  He's been asking for it anyway.  What do you have to lose?  Let him prove he can do something with it.

DC: Turnovers are going to be the name of the game.  Both teams are at the bottom of the Big Ten in turnovers, so if you can force a few more from Michigan than your guys give back to them....you may have a chance.  More importantly, have your players go back and watch your games against Penn State and Ohio State.  Yes, you got beat, but your defense was better against those teams than anyone else you've played all year.  I'm sure there was some pity play thrown your way, but your players don't need to think that way.  Look at everything you did right in those two games and work on emulating it this week.  Michigan isn't up to playing against a stout defense, so try to be one....if only for one week.

What I'd do if I was Michigan's...

OC:  Two-a-days.  What???  Okay, maybe not go that far.  But do work on playing for four quarters.  Your team put 17 points on PSU in the first half.  OSU couldn't even do that.  You've got some talent somewhere there.  Purdue's defense has been miserable all year, and now their offense is hampered more than usual, so pull out all the stops in the first half and bury them early.  Then work on sustaining through four quarters.  Don't take Purdue's situation too lightly...the new QB could turn out to be a passing stud, so you'd better be prepared to play the full 60 minutes.

DC: Your key is pressure.  The Boilermaker QB is inexperienced and ill prepared to face a strong rush, so blitz the bejeezus out of him.  Make him throw on the run.  Make him make snap decisions.  Better yet, show him a ton of different looks and see how he reacts.  He may just hand you the ball and walk away in tears.  That would be good....for you....

What will (un) likely happen: Purdue's just in a mess.  However, their savior may just be the last person they ever expected.  Somehow I doubt it, but I just can't help myself here.  I think the new guy adds the spark Purdue's offense needed.

Pick: Purdue 31 - Michigan 24

Actual: Purdue 48 - Michigan 42

Who called this?  ha-ha.  J. Siller 21/34 with 2 TD's.  Could there be a new starter in West LaFayette?  Probably not.  Michigan's nightmare continues.  Meanwhile, for Purdue, this is an important win.  It may not open the door for a bowl game, but it's a pride thing.  Beating a down Michigan is still better than losing to one. 

I watched this game mostly on gametrax, so I couldn't say how either team actually looked.

Michigan State vs Wisconsin

Michigan State is one of the better teams in the Big Ten and Wisconsin isn't.  However, Wisconsin did remember how to play decent defense last week.  If they can keep that up again this week, Wisconsin could make this a very good game.  If not....it's lights out early.

What I would do if I was Michigan State's....

OC: Stay very, very fluid.  By that I mean, change things up a LOT.  We all know Javon Ringer is superman at MSU, and he'll have plenty of opportunities to prove it again, but let Hoyer do his thing too.  Get your TE's involved early and often with the pass game.  Throw on first, run on third, do crazy, silly stuff like that.  Wisconsin's had a lot to overcome lately, they don't need an IQ test just when things look like they could be good again.  You've got the tools on offense to really booger with their minds, so do it. 

DC: Don't let your defense sit down on the job.  PJ Hill may or may not a factor in the game and Sherer is erratic at QB, but he's found some confidence.  Keep the pressure on Sherer and make sure your safeties are helping keep an eye on David Gilreath.  He was the difference maker in Wisconsin's win over Illinois.  Do what you've done all year and you should keep Wisconsin working hard for any score they get.

What I would do if I was Wisconsin's...

OC: Pray....a lot.  Dustin Sherer is growing into the QB position, but Travis Beckum is gone for the year.  David Gilreath came up huge for you last week, but you can guarantee MSU noticed.  PJ Hill is back in action this week, so use him.  Give your short range hand-offs to Clay, though, and let him move the pile.  Work on sustaining drives.  Don't worry about being fancy, just move the ball to the sticks and do it again until you run out of room.  Keep pounding the ball until it looks like Sherer might have a chance to throw the ball, then keep it short.  You just don't have the speed to burn MSU.  Clock management will be key.

DC: Don't get caught up in the "stop Ringer" campaign.  Yes, I know how good he is, but don't forget about Hoyer back there.  Just play straight-up defense and for goodness sakes, make your tackles count.  Ringer is far too good to arm tackle, so make sure your guys work really hard on wrapping up and bringing people to the ground.  Put pressure on Hoyer if you can, but don't make it the top priority.  Instead, work on decent coverage and keeping the play in front of you.  If your offense can control the clock a little, you might be able to keep your team in the game.  This is no Illinois, so you'd better come out fired up and ready to play every down to your best.

What will likely happen:  I soooo want to say that Wisconsin will get an upset here, but can they really do that against a more balanced team than Illinois was?  Maybe....

Pick: Wisconsin 24 - Michigan State 21

Actual: MSU 25 - Wisconsin 24

Well, I had Wisconsin's score right, but missed MSU.  This will have to be one of those infamous "moral victories" for the Badgers.  They had a 17-13 lead going into the 4th and let it slip away.  Staying with a strong MSU team is still a positive after the four game stretch they had through most of October. 

 

Minnesota vs Northwestern

Minnisota's playing well on both sides of the ball.  Northwestern has a pretty good offense and questionable defense.  The only question for me is....is Minnesota's defense good enough to keep Northwestern's offense under wraps?

What I'd do if I was Minnesota's...

OC: Do what you've done all year.  It's worked for you so far, don't mess with it.  Northwestern's defense isn't their strong point.  They may stop you a time or three, but they won't stop you all day and you should find yourself in scoring range frequently enough to get the win.  Especially if...

DC: ...the defense can keep backup QB Mike Kafka under wraps.  The Wildcats are suffering from bad injuries.  Bacher is out for the week.  Sutton is likely out for the year.  Take advantage of that.  Kafka is good enough to have competed for the starting spot at the beginning of the year, but he's been out of the picture for weeks.  Put pressure on him early and see how he reacts. 

What I'd do if I was Northwestern's...

OC: The same ol' , same ol'.  Pretend like nothing's really changed.  I understand that Kifka isn't Bacher and Conteh isn't Sutton, but that doesn't mean they're not capable of running the offense.  Show them you have just as much faith in them as you did the regular starters and keep calling the plays.  Let them step up and be the big play guys.  Most importantly, don't allow the rest of the offense to feel like they're somehow hampered by the absences.  Make it feel like just another day at the office in the Big Ten. 

DC:  You're going to have to get better play out of your secondary.  Northwestern has been giving up bigger plays of late, so work on keeping the plays in front of your players.  Make it well known that you won't stand for letting the big plays get by you.  Force Minnesota into playing the short game and keep the tempo at your pace, not theirs.

What will likely happen: Northwestern's offense is good, but injured.  Minnesota has the more balanced team.

Pick: Minnesota 31 - Northwestern 17

Actual: Northwestern 24 - Minnesota 17

This was a great game.  Tied, with little time left on the clock.  Game could go either way.  Good stuff....just not for Minny, in the end.  An INT returned for the touchdown made the difference.  Kudos to the Wildcats who aren't really known for their defense.  It came up big today when it needed to.  I felt better about this pick than I did most of the others, but that's Big Ten football for you...

Ohio State - BYE

Penn State - BYE

After nine long weeks, the Buckeyes and Lions both get a much needed break.  This is the perfect time to rest a little and focus on whatever weak points are perceived on your squads.  Also, it's a pretty decent time to get some recruiting wrapped up before you get back into heavy practice early next week.

Lastly

Illinois vs Iowa

Illinois dropped a shocker to Wisconsin.  Well, I shouldn't say "shocker".  Wisconsin can play physical football when they want to and Illinois is more of a finesse team.  Unfortunately for Illinois, Iowa is even more physical than Wisconsin, and better balanced.

What I would do if I was Illinois'...

DC: Blitz early and often.  Yes, you heard me....blitz.  More specifically, I would blitz one man and keep two back to watch a run in the other direction and/or the short pass.  Ricki Stanzi is growing into a good QB, but he's still young and he hasn't been seriously challenged the last couple of weeks.  In fact, the last time he was really challenged, he made bad decisions and coughed the ball up.  Get to him.  Your down linemen won't do it against Iowa's line, so use a blitz package to get to him.  Yes, he throws better on the run, but he also makes some mistakes when he's scrambling.  Also, Shonn Greene runs best (as do most RB's) when he gets a full head of steam heading to the line.  Get someone back there early to disrupt him and you have a better chance of slowing him down.

OC: Work the middle range.  Iowa is killer against the run, so they're likely to bottle up Juice Williams, at least a little.  They don't allow a lot of big plays.  Check that....they allow very few big plays.  So take the one thing they'll give you readily:  the 7-12 yrd range.  Roll Juice around in the backfield and make the LB's take chase, then dump it mid-range and move the chains.  Work on your red zone attack.  Iowa gives up big yards, so take them big, but they clamp down when their backs are against the wall.  You're going to need a little something extra when you get down to the scoring zone.  Pull out the stops and show them something they haven't seen.  Maybe a trick play or two, then come back at them the next time with something deep in the endzone.  Make their corners go up after the ball.  You're bound to beat them now and again.

What I would do if I was Iowa's....

OC: You'd like me to say, run Shonn Greene....but that's not what I'm going to say.  Illinois has heard over and over how they need to stop Shonn Greene.  So, let Ricki show what he can really do.  Yes, by all means, give Shonn the opportunity to get his 9th straight 100 yard game, but this time you don't have to rely solely on him.  Ricki needs to learn to step up and take complete control of the offense and this is the best week to do it.  Work on his patience and keep him looking at all of his receivers.  I don't think Illinois will put enough pressure on him to really rattle him, so turn him loose.  When Illinois starts to get frustrated, punch 'em in the teeth with Shonn...he's pretty good at that.  Literally....

DC: Light a fire under Matt Kroul and Mitch King.  Go after Juice Williams like he's a bag of gold and your mama's in the poor house.  Hit him, hit him again, then hit him one more time for good measure.  As you've done all year, allow your front four to be the biggest part of your rush.  Let AJ Edds and Pat Angerer roam freely in the secondary and they'll pick Williams' pass attack apart.  Iowa's defense is very good at swarming to the ball, so keep as many people as possible in position to do just that.  Most importantly, make every tackle personal.  Hit Illinois like they just stole your Halloween candy and wait for them to fold.  They will....they usually do.

What will likely happen: Illinois likes to open their offense up and spread things around the field.  The problem is, Iowa's defense is the type that will slow down the tempo and make you play patiently.  That doesn't suit Illinois very well.  Most importantly (again), Iowa plays very physical football.  They're great at the open field tackle and will hit as hard as anyone.

Pick: Iowa 24 - Illinois 21

Actual: Illinois 27 - Iowa 24

Crap!  Well, Shonn got his 9th 100yd game, but it was in a losing effort.  I have to give credit to the Illini defense.  I didn't think they would do that good against the Iowa O-Line, but they were and that hurt.  Greene had a very slow start to the game, gviing way to Jewel Hampton for roughly half the carries.  For his part, Hampton did pretty well.  The Hawks just didn't execute well enough offensively, held to only field goals in the first half.

Juice Williams was largely held in check running the ball, but he was plenty effective at the shorter passes that kept the chain moving.  Iowa's defense was kept on the field a little too much.  It's poetic that the difference in the game was a fumble returned for a TD.  I'd hoped the Iowa D could hold the Illini on their final drive, but the boys in Orange were able to move the ball into field goal range and end Iowa's hopes of a come-from-behind win. 

Well folks, that's it from here.  This should be a good week of football.  Bowl games are on the line, as they are every week, but we're getting down to crunch time.  Good luck to your teams this week.

Well, I was definitely not on the game this week.  Only 1 and 4.  Maybe I can get a coaching job with Indiana??  Sorry, Hoosier fans, I couldn't help myself.  There were some barn burners this week, and some close games.  Several people have said most of these games could go either way, so I'll just go with that excuse!  Truthfully, this is the time of year when strange things happen, but I can't say many of these were that strange. 

For more Big Ten picks and posts, check these two blogs. 

pspknine's blog (especially geared toward Penn State fans, but covering all Big Ten games).

seabass2003's blog (An OSU fan who got me started in this whole blog thing)

It just hit me how close we are to the end of the season.  Of course, I knew how close we are, but it really just hit me that in a few short weeks we'll start the long wait until our teams play in thier bowls.  I love bowl season as much as the next guy, but it's still not the same as waking up every Saturday, excited to catch the Big Ten in action against each other. 

Putting that thought behind....it's getting down to crunch time.  Several teams in the conference have a chance at some pretty good bowl games, but it all depends on what happens over the next four weeks. 

Here's a quick look at the games coming up this weekend.

Indiana vs Central Michigan

Indiana got a HUGE win over Northwestern last weekend.  I think it's safe to say, this was the biggest upset in the Big Ten.  Where was this Indiana team all season long?  Northwestern may not be Penn State, but they're a good team and Indiana hasn't beaten a good team until now.  At 3-5 it's a long shot at best for Indiana to make a bowl game, but not impossible.  They need three more to become bowl eligible and two of the last four are definitely winnable.  Central Michigan provides an excellent opportunity for Indiana to build on thier upset over Northwestern and get a little momentum before they host the Badgers.  They need to take this game for what it's worth; a chance to improve and gain a little more confidence.

The Chippewas are a MAC power.  The key to that sentence is...MAC.  They've beaten the likes of Temple, Ohio and Western Michigan, but lost to Purdue.  Indiana can't take them too lightly, however.  They've got the tools in QB Dan LeFevour and WR Antonio Brown to control the clock and put some points on the board.  On the other hand, they struggled to beat Toledo...

Michigan @ Purdue

After four straight losses, Michigan needs a win badly.  With Minnesota, Northwestern and Ohio State still on the schedule, this is their best chance to get one.  Michigan looked good in the first half of their loss to Penn State and again in the opening of their loss to Michigan State.  Purdue's weak defense will give them the chance to jump up on the Boilermakers and work on sustaining through four quarters.  Things are looking pretty bleak in Ann Arbor, but a win here will allow them to save a little face and maybe give the Wolverines a little confidence before they travel to Minnesota.

Purdue's offensive line is a mess and it's weighing pretty heavily on thier quarterbacks.  Michigan won't give them any breaks there.  Purdue's woes won't ease up much this week.  While Michigan may not be Michigan, they're still Michigan.  Make sense??  I didn't think so...  The Wolverines are slowly getting better, while Purdue just seems to be getting worse.  It doesn't look good for the Boilermakers, as they have MSU, and Iowa before hosting the Hoosiers.

Michigan State vs Wisconsin

MSU had a great victory over Michigan after getting blown apart by OSU.  This could be one of those infamous "trap games" if the Spartans aren't careful.  Wisconsin put it together last week to beat Illinois, snapping a five game losing streak.  For the Spartans, this should be a good victory, though.  Javon Ringer is still getting a million carries, running through an O-Line that's giving him enough room to make moves and is physical enough to keep Wisconsin's front seven busy.  Brian Hoyer is a solid quarterback who will find a way to pick apart Wisconsin's D...if he has time.

Wisconsin learned a valuable lesson on defense: less is more.  Bielema's staff threw the fancy stuff out the window and went back to straight-up defense, the way Wisconsin used to play.  The change translated into a victory over an Illinois team that has put up the most yards per game of any team in the conference.  They contained Juice Williams and forced the Illini into a shorter game than they're used to.  If they keep the same in mind this week, they may be able to bottle up Ringer and Hoyer and turn this game into a turf war, old school style.  This would be a huge win for a Badger team looking for some sign that they're on thier way back up.  With Indiana and Cal Poly in two of thier last three games, a win here could pave the way to a definite bowl game; something that looked nearly impossible just a week ago.

Minnesota vs Northwestern

Minnesota is the talk of the Big Ten this year with their enormous turnaround.  Their only loss thus far this season was a 13 point heartbreaker to Ohio State: nothing to be ashamed of.  They're on a three game win streak and get the benefit of hosting the Wildcats.  Minnesota's defense is solid and can certainly slow down Northwestern's attack, especially since it appears the wildcats will be missing both Tyrell Sutton and CJ Bacher for this contest.

Northwestern is in trouble.  Say what you want, but this team was exposed last week.  Sutton and Bacher were injured and the team suffered from the turnover bug.  All of a sudden, the Wildcats don't look so ferocious.  That prompted me to take a closer look at their season.  Wins over Syracuse, Duke and Ohio really weren't that impressive.  In fact, their most impressive victory came over an Iowa team that was struggling with issues of their own that week.  With a loss to Indiana, they've taken a step back, no longer beating the teams they're supposed to beat.  Was it a fluke?  Or was it a sign that this Northwestern team may have been overrated in the first place? 

Ohio State - BYE   (next 11/8/08 @ Northwestern)

OSU dropped a close, physical game against #3 Penn State in a classic last weekend.  There's nothing to be ashamed of in that game, but any hope of a return to the NCG is gone as may be a Big Ten title.  They can still play a major bowl game, though, and now they can just focus on playing without any outside interruptions.

Penn State - BYE    (next 11/8/08 @ Iowa)

Penn State remained #3 in the BCS, even after beating the Buckeyes.  It's really not that big a deal.  The chances of Texas going undefeated are a bit long, which would give PSU the inside track to the NCG... IF they can go undefeated themselves.

My Game of the Week

Iowa @ Illinois

Iowa has looked exceptionally good since breaking thier three game losing streak against Indiana in week 7.  Shonn Greene is finally getting a taste of the recognition he deserves as one of the (if not the) best RB's in the country.  The Hawkeye defense allows the fifth fewest points per game in the nation and sophomore QB Ricki Stanzi is really starting to grow up under center.  The Hawks play straight forward, physical football on both sides of the equation and want very much to show that they are a much better team than their record would indicate.  Illinois presents a good opportunity to get a three game win streak going before they get to host the Nittany Lions in Iowa City on Nov. 8.

Illinois isn't what they were supposed to be....not by a long shot.  Much like last year, the Illini have the tools to put together an explosive game, but they lack the toughness to handle the trench battles they're facing in the Big Ten.  When confronted by a team whose defense can bottle up Williams and force Illinois to slow down and play physical football, they find themselves on the short end of the stick.  If the Illini thought Minnesota and Wisconsin were tough, they haven't faced the likes of Matt Kroul, Mitch King and Company.  The Hawkeyes don't allow many people to find the endzone, nor often.  If that wasn't bad enough, the Illini have to figure out a way to slow down Heisman hopeful Shonn Greene, who plays the most physical game I've had the priviledge to see in quite some time.  They're going to have to play good, old fashioned, grunge football if they want to beat Iowa, and they'll have to play it well.

Both Iowa and Illinois are capable of reaching a bowl game, but both need a couple more wins to make it happen.  As with much of the rest of the conference, every week from here on out will be a big week.  This should be a great game with some explosiveness and hard hits.

 

Well folks, we're into the final four weeks of the season.  This is the home stretch and there's a lot on the line every game.  Hope it's a good week for everyone, I know Saturday will be a great day regardless!  Happy bowl hunting!