You think you've got the Big Ten bowl picture all figured out?  Some of it's set in stone, but some of it isn't.  A lot of it is being figure out, as I type.  Even now, Oregon is beating Oregon State by 10 in the 2nd quarter.  That plays huge into the Big Ten bowl schedule.  Here's what I think will pan out and how the bowls will fall for our Big Ten teams. 

From top to bottom, here we go:

Rose Bowl:

The Players:  Penn State (locked), Oregon State, USC

My Gut Feeling:  USC will get the Rose Bowl invite and face Penn State in the Rose Bowl.

Why:  Penn State, though technically titled co-Champions of the Big Ten, beat OSU in the head-to-head game and earned the right to represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl.  Oh yeah, they beat pretty much everyone else on their schedule too.  That helps. 

The Pac-10 is becoming more clear.  Though Oregon State defeated USC in their head-to-head match, by losing to Oregon, they will lose the Pac-10 race.  That'll open the door for USC to take it over and head to Pasadena. 

Why this would be a great match:  I don't care what all the SEC/ACC/Big 12 fans spew on their blogs and whatnot, Penn State is a very good team.  They're well coached, have solid talent, and still have a lot to prove to the nation.  Most certainly, they'll want to prove that they shouldn't have been overlooked so easily for a real shot at the National Championship Game.  Some one-loss team will get into that game and they'll want to show that maybe it should have been them. 

On the other side of the ball, USC is playing as well, if not better, than anyone in the country.  Oregon State was their only slip, back in week 5, and since then they've been taking care of business quite handily.  They'll want to leave no doubt that the OSU game (Oregon State, not Ohio State) was an abberation. 

What Could cause this not to happen:  Two things.  Oregon State could come back and beat Oregon and clinch the Pac-10 title.  This isn't favorable to anyone in the Big Ten, really.  At least not to those whose teams stand to move up a bowl by USC getting the Rose Bowl bid.  The other thing that can ruin it is if USC inexplicably loses to Notre Dame or UCLA.  Notre Dame is terrible again this year and UCLA isn't much better.  USC should do it's part to get to Pasadena, so it's up to Oregon State to decide who'll play against the Nittany Lions.

What will Happen:  I know this is awfully late in the game to decide this, but I don't think OSU will stage their needed comeback. 

Penn State vs USC

Update: Oregon defeated Oregon State 65-38, which means, Ohio State has the inside track to getting the Big Ten a second team in a BCS bowl.

Captial One Bowl

The Players: Ohio State, Michigan State, Georgia

My Gut Feeling:  If the aforementioned Rose Bowl selection pans out, then the Buckeyes will likely get a BCS bowl.  Which one, I don't really know yet.  There are a couple of choices that could fall into place.  Assuming that's the case, I'll temporarily pencil Ohio State for the Sugar Bowl.  That leaves the door open here for Michigan State to swoop in.

Why?  As I'll discuss a little later, the whole thing about bowls taking Big Ten #2, #3, #4, etc, isn't really that they take the Big Ten team that finished in that spot in the conference.  Basically, it means that's who they should take...but the choice isn't definite.  What it literally means is that the Cap One Bowl gets second choice for their Big Ten representative, behind the Rose Bowl.  The Cap One, however, generally sticks to the conference standings when making their pick.  They go for competition over anything else, and assume that a team's record is indicative of their ability.  That's commendable of them.  Particularly when other bowls choose money over competition. 

At any rate, the Spartans earned this spot by virtue of being third in the conference and the top two going to other bowls. 

On the other side, Georgia will finish third in the SEC behind Alabama and Florida, who will both be going to BCS bowls. 

What could make this not happen:  IF Ohio State isn't selected for a BCS bowl, they will be the Big Ten rep for this bowl and not the Spartans.  That's virtually the only thing that will keep this from happening.  It's not at all impossible, given that the Oregon State game isn't over yet and the Big Ten isn't exactly the most loved conference in the country this year.  However...aside from BCS bowls, the other bowls don't have to take who the BCS would like them to.  It's their choice who they pick, as long as they stay with their contractual obligations to the conferences tied to them. 

Why this would be a great match:  It has potential.  Georgia is a very talented team that not long ago was being talked about for a National Championship.  Michigan State is the team that could have won the conference with a little luck.  Neither panned out, and here they are. 

What will Happen:  Ohio State will get their BCS bowl and represent well.  That'll leave...

Michigan State vs Georgia

Outback Bowl:

The Players: Michigan State, Northwestern, Iowa, Mississippi, LSU, South Carolina

My Gut Feeling:  First, I should explain why there are so many players in line for this bowl.  As I mentioned before, some bowls don't necessarily take conference standings as the rule when making their selections.  As an example, I'll use 2005 Iowa and Michigan.  The two teams had identical records and Michigan won the head-to-head.  Still Iowa was chosen for the Outback over Michigan.  Why?  Despite Michigan having a much bigger name nationally, Iowa travels better.  Believe it or not, the Hawkeyes have one of the best records in the country when it comes to bringing fans to bowl games.  The Outback committee takes that into consideration when they make their selections.  The rules governing who you can take and who you can't go something like this:

You can't take a 6-6 team if there are 7-5 teams available.

You can take a 7-5 team over an 8-4 (or 8-4 over 9-3, etc), but cannot have a difference of more than one game.  Therefore, you can't take a 7-5 team over a 9-3 team even if that 7-5 team travels better or is a bigger draw. 

With all of that in mind, my gut says that Iowa will be the Big Ten rep for the Outback if OSU gets a BCS bid.  They have a worse record than Northwestern or MSU and lost to both of them, but Iowa was hotter down the stretch, beat PSU (who beat MSU), and travels as well, if not better than both schools. 

On the other side, I'll take LSU.  Why?  Anyone outside of Iowa remember the last time Iowa and LSU met in a bowl game?  It was a last second touchdown that lifted the Hawkeyes over LSU for the win.  As an Iowa fan, I can think of few finishes better than that one.  Two, actually come to mind, but that's all.  The folks at Outback know that this rematch would be a big draw for fans from both schools.  LSU travels fairly well and they're a nationally recognized name.  Even though Ol' Miss faired better than them in conference standings,  The Outback is kind of the rebel bowl in this sense.  They take who they like and have less regard for conference standings.

South Carolina's name has been tossed around as well, and this really could be a factor for the Outback folks.  It could even knock Iowa out of the running.  Their fans don't have to travel very far to reach Tampa and that means they can bring tons of folks to town.  For that reason, they wouldn't need all the fans Iowa tends to bring and they'll be more apt to bring the higher ranked team in the Big Ten over the one that brings more local revenue.

Why?  This is where the rubber meets the road for bowl games.  Like it or not, bowl games are big business.  Not only do they bring great matchups that people will pay big money to see, but they're huge tourist attractions.  A local economy can be hugely affected by the influx of 50,000 or 60,000 fans (could be a conservative figure) ready to take in the sights, buy a ton of souveniers, eat their food, and stay in their hotels.  There are a lot more people relying on a big turnout than just the ticket sellers.  I'm not trying to call the Outback folks greedy by any means, but these are tough times and money has to figure into things.  No one wants to pay millions to put on a great show, only to have maybe 30,000 people show up to the party. 

What will happen:  This one is a lot tougher than I had hoped.  I'm going against my gut on this one and I'll say they'll take

South Carolina vs Northwestern...banking on the SC fans traveling so close to home.

Alamo Bowl

The Players: Iowa, Northwestern, Missouri, Nebraska

My Gut Feeling: Assuming everything else I've said falls into place, there's no way Iowa doesn't get this bowl.  I'm still very hopeful that Iowa will get selected for the Outback, but if not, they'll get the Alamo.  Yes, both Minnesota and Wisconsin have 7-5 records and could, theorhetically be invited over the Hawkeyes, but I just don't see it happening. 

I think Mizzou gets the call here, though either opponent would be great for the Hawkeyes.  It's a border war either way you look at it.  The only way this doesn't happen is if Iowa goes to the Outback and leaves NW available for this bowl.

Why?  Iowa is (in my humble opinion) the best 8-4 team in the nation.  Down the stretch they played like a team that could/should be in the hunt for a BCS bowl, if not a NCG.  However....they're not undefeated and they're not conference champions...they're 8-4.  Considering the last two years, that's not bad.  They travel well, they have Shonn Greene as a show piece and they upset PSU.  Those are all reasons for Alamo folks to like the Hawks. 

Mizzou has the misfortune of being in the same conference as Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech, meaning they got the 4th spot in the conference.  It just won't pan out any other way. 

Nebraska finished 5th having to follow all the others I already named....

What will happen:  Supposing the Outback doesn't take Iowa over NW, and being that Mizzou will rank higher than Nebraska....

Iowa vs Missouri

*Interesting side note:  Mizzou head coach Gary Pinkel cancelled a four year deal that would have had Iowa playing Missouri in OOC games.  He may yet have to face the Hawkeyes...and this isn't the year he really wants to face them...

Champs Sports Bowl

The Players:  technically....Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, BC, Maryland, Miami, Virginia Tech

I have to admit that I have no clue how in the world these conference things work out in the ACC.  VT is scheduled to play in the conference championship, yet they are tied for the 3rd best record in the conference and 4th record overall.  How does that happen?  Shouldn't it be between the two teams with the best record?  They don't even have the best record in their division.  I don't get it....

My Gut Feeling:  This one is hard for me to figure out because of the whole conference championship thing.  This is the kind of thing that actually makes me glad the Big Ten doesn't have such a screwed up mess.  Anyway, I don't think Iowa will fall this far, but if OSU doesn't get a BCS bid, then they could definitely be here.  That leaves it between Minnesota and Wisconsin.  Minnesota looked much better than Wisconsin in the beginning, but Wiscy ended their season much stronger. My gut feeling is that Wisconsin will get a bid over Minnesota. 

 I don't even know what to think of the ACC, so I'll just throw stones in the dark and let someone out there correct me....

Why?  Oops....I already told you why. 

What will happen:  I'll take VT out of the equation, though I don't think they are.  For the same reason, I'll eliminate BC and that'll likely screw up everything for me.  Oh well....

Wisconsin vs. Miami...with a big "I don't get what's going on here" attached....

Insight

The Players: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas

I'm not really sure what the final standings in the Big 12 will be, but all of these teams have at least some tie to the Insight. 

My Gut Feeling:  is that Missouri won't fall this far in the pecking order.  I'm pretty sure Nebraska will be the one selected to go to Tempe for the B12.  If everything else pans out, that'll leave Minnesota in line for this one.

Why?  Minnesota jumped out to a huge 7-1 record on the year and locked in a bowl.  They dropped their last four, which is why they'll go to tempe instead of Tampa or somewhere like that.  Hawk fans will tell you that Tempe is a pretty nice place, though, and they'll treat you real well down there. 

Nebraska is turning their program around and this is step one.  They'll get the benefit of facing a Gopher team that hasn't looked very healthy at the end of their season.  This year, there were a lot bigger boys than the Huskers in the Big 12.  They're definitely game, though.

What'll Happen:  I'm pretty sure there's little doubt here, unless OSU doesn't get a BCS, then just shuffle Wisconsin down to here and move Minnesota over to the Motor City Bowl.

Minnesota vs Nebraska

 

I really and truly hope that someone can explain to me the conference championship deal and how that all works.  As I see it, I don't get how you can have a true conference championship when you have teams like VT playing teams like BC and neither of them have either of the two best records in their conference, nor the best record in their respective divisions.  Likewise, I keep hearing how Oklahoma could end up playing Missouri in the Big Twelve championship.  How does that happen when Texas has the better record in the South Division?  It makes no sense to me.  Explain it to me Basill....I'm confused.

Anyway, there's a look at who I think will be where when the dust settles.  I'm sure someone will shoot holes in the whole thing and remind me of something that got completely lost while I was busy trying to figure out who was where in their conferences. 

And yes...I'm writing this because I'm antsy.  There's football going on all around and the Big Ten isn't involved.  I'm restless.  I'm having anxiety attacks here....I can't eat, I can't sleep....well...okay....I'm not having any problem with those last two....but I'm having WITHDRAWALS!!!  I can't wait for the bowl picture to finally shape up so I can start researching each of the teams involved. 

That's it from here....until I get antsy again in a day or two and throw something else out there to be picked on...

 

 

This is just a quick rundown of who finished where in the Big Ten and a few thoughts/stats surrounding each team. 

From bottom to top...here they are:

Indiana

overall record: (3-9),  Big Ten record: (1-7)

This was not what the Hoosiers had invisioned as their follow up to the 2007 season that led to a bowl bid.  It was supposed to have been a springboard to bigger things.  Unfortunately, it was a throwback to years they'd hoped had gone by. 

Big Win: Yes, they had one.  Winning 21-19 over Northwestern on October 25th was a pretty big deal.  The Wildcats were a formidable team and this was the Hoosier's Homecoming.  Indiana's defense played the best game of their season and stopped NW late in the fourth quarter to solidy their unlikely victory.  Anytime you're a team struggling like Indiana has, beating a team with a winning record and a locked bowl bid is a big deal.  If nothing else, it showed what the Hoosiers were capable of, if only they played every game that way.

Reason to be optimistic: With all of their players healthy, they should have been a much better team.  They just lacked depth.  Not that they would have contended for a conference championship or anything, but they could have been a competitive team.  More importantly, they have a pretty decent recruiting class that was redshirted, almost across the board.  Once the Hoosiers get those kids in the lineup, they should have a lot more weapons at their disposal for next year.

Ending the season: The Hoosiers had four straight losses to finish the season.  That's not the kind of momentum you want to carry into the off-season.  Still....see above. 

Bowl?  Um...not hardly.  Not this year anyway.  Who knows what next year will look like.

Michigan

overall record: (3-9)  Big Ten record: (2-6)

What a fall from grace!  This was the losingest season in Wolverine history.  There's no reason to believe that Michigan has become the new perennial basement dweller they looked like this year, however.  RichRod is a new coach, with a new scheme, and the Wolverines have simply not adapted the way he'd hoped.  I still think RR is a pretty decent coach and he'll have Michigan back into winning ways in a few years...if the Wolvering alum can hang on that long...and if they can stop the flow of recruits heading to other schools.

Big Win:  29-6 win over Minnesota on November 8th.  Minnesota faded horribly over the stretch of their season, but they'd still been a decent team.  Any team that goes 7-1 to start their season is pretty decent.  With that being said, for Michigan to have such a convincing victory, dominating on both sides of the ball, is a big deal.  For one bright, shining moment, Michigan looked like Michigan again. 

Reason to be optimistic:  As I said before, RR is a new coach who implemented a new scheme.  If he can figure out how to meld his old version of the spread with the personnel Michigan has, they could become a formidable offense.  The defense wasn't as terrible as it sometimes looked and if he can work on the fundamentals in spring ball, Michigan could make a dramatic turnaround in only a year.  They won't be Penn State good in only one year, but they could make big strides.

Ending the Season:  Michigan finished with a two game slide after the Minnesota victory.  Everything that looked good, suddenly looked so bad again.  It still beats losing four in a row....

Bowl?  For the first time in a very long time....no. 

Purdue

overall record: (4-8)  Big Ten record: (2-6)

For the sake of allowing seabass to keep his sanity, I won't mention Tiller's new house!  Unfortunately, that seemed to be the only thing the coach was really focused on all year.  The team that featured a future pro QB in Curtis Painter sure fell flat on their faces.  A last game blowout over Indiana kept the Boilermakers from occupying the unenviable position of last in the Big Ten.  The really unfortunate thing is that there were a few very brief moments where Purdue looked brilliant.  A drive here or a play there made the Boilermakers appear to be on the verge of turning some corner and becoming something better than they were.  It just never panned out that way, though, and they were just plain bad.

Big Win:  62-10 romp over Indiana on November 22nd.  After an excruciating season that had Purdue fighting to dig their way out of the basement, they needed something more than a squeaker.  This was a butt-whooping and can at least give the Boilermakers something positive to reflect on Joe Tiller's final season.

Reason to be optimistic:  Next year the Boilermakers will start from scratch.  They'll have a new coach, new personnel and a new field general to lead them.  With that there are bound to be growing pains, but at the same time, they can hardly get much worse.  They now will have something they can build on and will get a snapshot of what their future may look like.

Ending the season:  Purdue got the huge win over Indiana to send them off into never-never land...as in, never-never play that poorly again. 

Bowl?  No, but they may not have been as far off as it looks.  Had they connected on the hail mary at the end of the Iowa game and had a little more success against a fading Minnesota team, Purdue could have found themselves bowl eligible.  It's probably lucky they didn't....that could have been very embarrasing for them and the rest of the Big Ten.

Illinois

overall record: (5-7)  Big Ten record: (3-5)

There's no real excuse for this team.  They should have been bowl eligible.  They laid down in the game against Northwestern and handed away any chance they had at a post-season appearance.  Ron Zook pinned the entire hopes of the team on one man.  Was that because he knew they didn't have the talent elsewhere to help?  Or did he really think Juice Williams could carry an entire team through a Big Ten schedule all by his lonesome?  I'm guessing the former is probably the truth. 

Big Win:  27-24 win over Iowa November 1st.  Iowa wasn't the Big Ten's most successful team this year, but they were one of the toughest.  Especially once Ricki Stanzi started to find his footing.  To get past one of the nation's best scoring defenses is no small feat, but they pulled it out.  It was a great win in front of an appreciative home crowd.

Reason to be Optimistic:  As good an athlete as Juice Williams is, I think the Illini are better off without him.  They'll be forced to find success elsewhere and that should help them identify new playmakers they may not have even known were on the roster.  Still, Juice will likely return for his senior season and that gives you at least one powerful offensive weapon.  If Zook can strengthen the line a little more and find a good running back to give your attack a little more balance, the offense should be impressive.  A bowl game is definitely not out of the question for next year.

Ending the Season: the Illini lost their last three.  That has to leave a sick feeling in the pit of your stomach; to be one win away from bowl eligibility and not find it in three games... 

Bowl? No bowl for you!!!

Minnesota

overall record: (7-5)  Big Ten record: (3-5)

Minnesota was the Comeback Kid through the first half of the season.  Not so much for what they did during the games, but what they'd done with the season.  This team looked like they could potentially put pressure on the conference front runners.  Then everything fell apart at the seams.  They couldn't beat any of the quality conference teams and started to look more and more like a mediocre team that benefitted from a soft early schedule.  Their huge turnover margin faded down the stretch, and their wins followed suit.

Big Win:  27-20 over Illinois October 11th.  Illinois turned out not to be very good, but at the time they were still looking like a bowl team.  It was a quality win for the Gophers and the last good one they'd get all year.

Reason to be Optimistic:  The foundation has been laid.  The end of the '08 regular season may have been disappointing, but they have a lot of good things they can focus on going forward.  Their defense knows how to hit hard and the line isn't too bad.  They have thier two best offensive weapons in Decker and Weber returning next year.  Solidify the defense, get the turnovers rolling again, and this year could be a spring board into '09. 

Ending the Season:  The Gophers lost their last 4 to end any hope of a New Year's bowl.  The finale, a 55-0 drumming at the hands of the Hawks may have been a good thing.  It may be what they needed to wake them up and realize that they need to get their heads in the game if they want to win their bowl.

Bowl?  Yes!  The question still remains as to which one.  It could be Champs, it could be Inisight or it could be Motor City.  Exactly where will depend on whether or not Ohio State is granted a BCS bowl.  We'll know in a couple of weeks.

Wisconsin

overall record: (7-5)  Big Ten record: (3-5)

The Badgers came into the season thinking conference championship.  That went out the window when they suffered a four game losing streak mid-season.  Normally, one couldn't blame Wisconsin for three of those losses.  They had a brutal schedule, facing Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State in three straight weeks.  As it turned out, Michigan wasn't that good, but the other two were still nothing to sneeze at.  Unfortunately, Wisconsin lost all three, then followed them up with a loss to Iowa.  The Badgers didn't hang their heads, though, and rallied back to win four of their last five and salvage a year that was starting to look very bleak. 

Big Win: 27-17 over Illinois October 25th....or....36-35 over Cal Poly November 22nd.  Take your pick.  The win over Illinois was significant because it breathed new life back into the Badgers and seemed to get them back on the right page.  The Cal Poly win was significant because the Mustangs are much tougher than most people will ever give them credit for, and that was the win that secured the Badgers a bowl game. 

Reason to be Optimistic:  The Badgers have shown resiliance.  They lost to the four best teams in the league (excluding NW, who they didn't play this year), but injuries played a part.  Plus, I got the feeling that the Badgers were blindsided a little.  They weren't overmatched, but they weren't mentally prepared for some of those games either.  The good news is, that's a fairly easy fix for next year.  It starts with Double B, running the show.  He's got to get the players better prepared.  They've got some good talent returning next year and momentum to carry them into bowl season.  If they can win their bowl game, they'll be in good position to make some real noise next year.

Ending the Season:  Wisconsin won four of their last five and ended on a three game win streak.  Many will bash them for an OT win over Div 1AA Cal Poly, but it should be a non-factor.  The notion that Div 1AA or Mid-Major conferences, or less respected conferences are somehow not up to par with the "big six" is idiotic.  Boise State isn't the only "lower conference" team to knock off big boys.  They can play too folks.  In my book, this win is as impressive as any the Badgers have earned this year.  They've got great momentum and confidence heading into their bowl game.

Bowl?  Yes!  As with all but one of the Big Ten teams, the bowl game is still undecided.  What is definite is that Wisconsin will be playing another game sometime in December.

Iowa

overall record: (8-4)  Big Ten record: (5-3)

Iowa hasn't gotten a lot of love from the rest of the nation this year.  I can't say as I completely blame them.  That three game losing streak didn't do them any favors, nor did the loss to Illinois.  Still, for a team that went 6-6 both of their last two seasons, this was a great year.  All of their losses were extremely close, meaning this season could have been even better than it was.  They found a superstar running back and broke in the quarterback of their future.  All in all, things are looking very bright for the boys from Iowa City.

Big Win:  Easily it was the 24-23, last second victory over #3 Penn State on November 8th.  It showed that Iowa could play with the big boys and it was the only opportunity Iowa would have all year to beat a top 25 team as MSU and Northwestern weren't ranked when they played the Hawks and OSU got the lucky break of not having to face Iowa this year. :-)

Reason to be Optimistic:  Let's count the ways.  Many of the key players are, or could be, returning.  Shonn Greene likely won't, as he has a promising NFL career ahead of him, but Jewel Hampton has looked very good with a 5.0 yrd/carry average in his freshman tries.  Ricki Stanzi has grown by leaps and bounds and despite losing Mitch King and Matt Kroul, the defensive line looks solid.  The defensive secondary should be just as good and the O-Line should be even more solid.  All-in-all, if Iowa isn't a threat for the conference title next year, it'll be a disappointment....but no pressure or anything....

Ending the Season:  The Hawks ended their season on a three game win streak, including a 55-0 shutout over Minnesota in their final game in the Metrodome.  The downside is, they should have ended on a six game win streak, but for that nasty little loss at Illinois.  The upside is, they still finished very strong and that impresses bowl people as much as the overall record.

Bowl?  Yes! And unlike the last bowl they attended two years ago, they don't have to squeak their way into one.  There's been a lot of talk that Iowa might even leapfrog Northwestern into a better bowl.  The reps from the Outback have been very interested in Iowa, as have the reps from Capital One, though I seriously doubt they would take Iowa over Michigan State.  That would be wrong on so many levels. 

Northwestern

overall record: (9-3)  Big Ten record: (5-3)

This was a great year for the boys in Purple.  9-3 is pretty good by about anyone's standards, but for a team that has so rarely been near the top of the Big Ten, this is a banner year.  Just like when he was playing for the Wildcats, coach Fitzgerald has brought pride back to the Wildcat team in ways they haven't seen in nearly a decade.  He implemented a new offense (interestingly, one he never played) and his players responded beautifully.  He expected nothing less than their best and they gave it to him.  Injuries likely cost this team an even better season, but it was a huge step in the right direction and the future looks pretty bright.

Big Win:  22-17 over Iowa on September 27th.  Why this game?  A couple of reasons.  First of all, despite falling behind 17-3 late in the second quarter, the Wildcats ripped off 19 unanswered points, holding Iowa scoreless in the second half to secure the win.  Second of all, it was Iowa's homecoming and you always love to beat a tough team on their homecoming.  Oh yeah...maybe most importantly...they were the only team to beat the Hawks in Kinnick Stadium this year....

Reason to be Optimistic:  This should be only the beginning of things to come.  Yes, they're losing some key players and that will hurt, but their replacements have nearly all seen some decent playing time this year.  They won't exactly come into things green around the gills next spring.  Fitzy should have them ready to go by kickoff next fall.  The intensity in this program will translate into wins on the field.  How far they go will depend entirely on how closely the team pays attention to their coaching staff during drills.

Ending the Season:  The Wildcats won their last two after dropping an ugly one to Ohio State.  Two weeks before that, they dropped a curious one to Indiana.  What was going on there?  Still, they ended on a strong note and that 27-10 win over Illinois was sufficiently impressive, even if Illinois isn't all that.

Bowl?  Yes!  The Wildcats could be headed to Tampa, Tempe, or San Antonio.  No matter which they get, it'll be a pretty good bowl. 

Michigan State

overall record: (9-3)  Big Ten record: (6-2)

The Spartans were one win and a little help from a trip to Pasadena.  It's pretty exciting when you can go into the final week of Big Ten play and still be getting talked about in connection with the Rose Bowl.  The Spartans have a Heisman hopeful and a solid all around team.  It might be tempting to think of the coulda-woulda-shoulda's, but that's a waste of time.  Sparty had a pretty darn good year and he should get rewarded as handsomely as can be expected with two teams ahead of him in the conference. 

Big Win:  37-20 over Northwestern on October 11th....or....25-24 over Wisconsin on November 1st...or...16-13 over Iowa on October 4th.  Three big games?  Well, not in a lot of ways, but yes in a lot of ways too.  Beating Northwestern was a big win for the Spartans because Northwestern was the highest rated opponent the Spartans beat in the Big Ten this year.  It solidified their place in the conference and kept them alive for much more.  The Wisconsin game was big because the Badgers were full-fledged into their comeback when MSU knocked them back down.  Wisconsin was playing well again and that was a very tough win.  The Iowa game doesn't really look like much except the fact that they held off a late surge by Iowa to get the win.  Realistically, those two teams were very evenly matched and MSU pulled it out.  They weren't able to knock off either OSU or PSU, so take your pick of these three...

Reason to be Optimistic:  Besides the fact that they could easily be playing in the Capital One Bowl?  Try that they were oh-so-close to playing in the Rose Bowl.  Yeah, I know...they were in the mix, but not really.  They were in the hunt and that's more than 8 other teams in the Big Ten can say.  The big question for next year will be: how will they handle the loss of both Ringer and Hoyer at the end of the season?  I think they'll be just fine.  They still have some talent returning and recruiting (especially in-state) is looking pretty decent.  This team is setting itself up to be very competitive for years to come.

Ending the Season:  The Spartans lost their last game of the season, but it was to conference champion Penn State.  Before that they'd won three in a row, following the OSU loss.  Losing to the two toughest teams in the conference, but beating everyone else, is no slap in the face. 

Bowl? Yes!  Possibly Capital One, if OSU gets into a BCS bowl.  At very least, they're looking at Outback and that's pretty darn good.

Ohio State

overall record: (10-2)  Big Ten record: (7-1)

Well, you can't play for the National championship every year, now can you?  I'm sure Buckeye fans would give a resounding "YES!', but, no, not really.  Ohio State came very near to playing in the Rose Bowl, and had not Penn State slipped to Iowa, it would have been a definite destination.  Their only conference loss came to Penn State in a close, hard fought game.  In fact, the only two losses sustained by the Buckeyes this year were to teams that have been repeatedly mentioned in connection with the NCG.  That's pretty much what you'd expect from a team that's represented the Big Ten in the major bowl not once, but three times in recent years. 

Big Win:  When your only real (perceived) competition is Penn State, and you lose to them, it's hard to come up with a "Big Win".  Especially when you got hammered by USC early in the year.  Still, I would have to say the 45-7 throttling of Michigan State was that win.  The Spartans were soundly in the hunt for the conference title and the Buckeyes left now doubt who the better team was. 

Reason to be Optimistic:  I'm sure for some Buckeye fans, it's a little tough to be.  The NCG slipped away fairly early, then the Rose Bowl slipped away late.  Still, Ohio State had another great year and will represent the Big Ten well in their bowl game.  Pryor and Wells should both be returning again next year to lead the Buckeye attack.  There's no reason to believe that next year the Buckeyes won't be back in the hunt for the conference title and possibly a national title.  As for the remainder of this year, a big bowl win would go a long way towards restoring their tarnished image as well as the Big Ten's. 

Ending the Season:  Ohio State won their last three after the narrow loss to Penn State.  They outscored the last three teams 80-37 as Wells and Pryor looked to be at the peak of their game.  Woe be unto the team that thinks they'll steamroll the Buckeyes in their bowl game....

Bowl? Duh!  There's still a very big question as to which one.  Capital One is the easy answer, but it's not even nearly cut and dry.  First off, there could still be a key loss or four that could theorhetically place PSU in the NCG.  It won't happen, but it could.  That would give OSU the green light for the Rose Bowl.  However, even when that doesn't pan out, there's still no reason PSU couldn't move up into another BCS game.  There are 6 BCS slots "above" the Rose Bowl and despite conference affiliations and such crap, it would only take one loss to a top team to conceivably push PSU up to say....the Orange Bowl.  That too could give OSU the Rose Bowl.  There are other options out there, but I'm too tired to figure them all out.  Suffice to say that OSU's fate is not yet sealed.  Many things could happen, but one thing is for certain: OSU will be playing in the New Year.

As has been correctly pointed out to me: unless there is a meltdown at the top of the rankings and Penn State gets the highly unlikely nod for the NCG, there is no chance of them playing in any other bowl than the Rose Bowl (no knock on the Rose Bowl intended).  Thus...OSU's options are a) a BCS bowl or b) the Capital One Bowl.  There is virtually no chance that they will end up in any "lesser" bowl than the Cap One, and no path that would lead them to the Rose Bowl short of the aforementioned miracle. 

Penn State

overall record: (11-1)  Big Ten record: (7-1)

I don't even want to call them co-Champions of the Big Ten...they are the champions of the Big Ten!  They won the tie breaker and that's all there is to it.  For JoePa, despite whatever disappointment remains in missing the NCG, this was a great year.  He proved he could implement a spread offense (despite his old-dog-old-tricks stereotype) and make it work.  His team ranked near the top of nearly every statistical category.  The Lions were just one missed field goal in a freezing cold stadium from being perfect on the year.  That's a record every team would love to have.

Big Win:  The showdown of the year (in the Big Ten anyway), was the game against Ohio State.  It not only had a huge bearing on the conference championship, but also the national championship.  The Nittany Lions had to go to the dreaded Horse Shoe to face the Buckeyes on their own turf on October 25th, and walked away with a 13-6 victory.  Holding the powerful Buckeyes to only six points was a major defensive achievement.  It was the green light for all of Penn States hopes and dreams for the season.

Reason to be Optimistic:  Again, there are several.  Penn State can be the hero of the Big Ten this year by beating whoever they face in the Rose Bowl.  For the future, there's no reason to believe this was a one-time, last hurrah for JoePa and Company.  Unless the alumni run Joe out of town, he'll be back next year to push for perfection again.  They'd be idiotic to let him go, despite his age.  Clark and Royster should be returning next year and will generate a lot of excitement on campus.  In fact, the Lions will return quite a few players next year, which should mean that we've only begun to see what these guys are capable of.

Ending the Season:  After the heartbreaking loss in Iowa City, Penn State ended the year winning their last two, including a huge win over Michigan State to secure the conference title.  It was a great rebound from a game that could have been a major distraction. 

Bowl? NO....just kidding....DUH!  Everyone, everywhere is saying that Penn State will be representing the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl.  As I said above, it's not quite that cut and dry.  Yes, it's most likely what will happen, but it doesn't have to be.  Not yet.  There are still two weeks worth of games that could change everything.  There are so many scenarios that could play out, it boggles the mind.  I sincerely doubt that PSU would miraculously find their way back into the NCG, but it can't be ruled out until it's officially ruled out.  PSU will be in a January Bowl.  Claiming we know right now which one it will be is premature and unfair to the Lions.

 

That's just a quick rundown of what's going on, where everyone finished and a (very brief) overview of the season.....in a nutshell....minus the salt....

As PSPKNINE so wisely pointed out, now is the time for true Big Ten fans to step up and root for the teams that they'd have rooted against most of the year.  The better the Big Ten looks in their bowl games, the better your team looks when they beat them next year, so put away the home pom-poms (except when your team plays in a bowl) and pull out the Big Ten ones.  GO BIG TEN!  Here's to hoping "our boys" will silence the haters out there by whooping up on bowl opponents!

 

It's hard to believe we're at the final week already.  It seems like only a week or so ago that I was anxiously watching the "preseason" games, waiting for conference play to start.  As soon as it did, it's all over.  That's the way it goes, though.  Bowl season is just around the corner and I'm getting pretty excited about it.  Whatever happens, there will be some monster match ups and some great games.

Before I get to the picks, I would just like to add that this season is yet another example of why the Big Ten should have a conference championship.  We have three teams vieing for the title of Big Ten championship.  If MSU beats PSU, they will have all beaten each other.  Yeah, we'll know who the champion is when it all clears out, but how many times have we seen scenarios much like this, only two of the teams never faced each other.  How many co-champions?  One extra game at the end of the season could put an end to all of that and crown a single, clear, champion. 

Wow, what a week!!  Yeah, there were some absolute blowouts, but this time, it was exciting.  I expected a lot closer scores for most of the games, but that's what makes things so interesitng.  Not a lot of surprises, but a great week and I'm stoked about the Big Ten bowl picture. 

But enough of that....on to the picks!

Illinois @ Northwestern

Illinois needs this win more than Northwestern does.  Can they do it, though?  Illinois really hasn't looked that great this year.  Juice Williams is still the Juice, but he's all they really have.  Defensively, they're not bad, but defense can only carry you so far when your offense falters.  As the season has gone on, more and more teams have found ways to put a cage on Williams (I couldn't use the old, hokey line about bottling up the juice...it's just bad) and slow down the Illini attack. 

Northwestern is suffering from a slew of injuries that will make them far less effective than they could be.  I question just how much their heart will be in this game, even though it's Senior Day in front of the home crowd.  Time will tell.

What I'd do if I was Illinois'...

OC:  Let someone other than Williams run the ball.  I know how good he is when he's moving his feet.  So does everyone else in the country.  Northwestern's pass defense is 75th in the nation versus your 16th rated pass offense.  Use it to your advantage all day long.  The old Big Ten style was to use the run to set up the pass, but for you this week, use the pass to set up the run.  Undoubtedly, the Wildcats will be keying on Williams, but they'll be looking more to contain him from running.  So use him the way his position traditionally dictates and pick apart the Wildcat defense.  They're very beatable right now.

DC:  Northwestern is missing their top two running backs.  Sutton is possible for a bowl game, but Conteh is done.  Simmons will likely start and he's just not ready to haul the entire load for the Wildcats yet.  With that in mind, drive it into your line that they need to pick on Simmons.  He's got to be shut down.  I'm making the assumption that CJ Bacher will be healed enough to play the entire game this week for NW.  He's got a good grasp on the Wildcat offense, so you've got to key on him.  Get some people into the backfield and rattle his cage.  You've got to win the turnover battle.  Williams has shown that he can be prone to turning the ball over when he's frustrated.  He's not yours to worry about.  So, assume he'll cough it up at least once.  Make the Wildcats cough it up more than once.

Zook:  You've got to get your team's heads on straight.  This is for their last shot at a bowl game.  They've got to want this game badly, and you've got to make them want it.  I get the feeling that some of your players have written off this season and are just going through the motions.  You've got to get that back under control and make your players see that they still have one game left, and that one could lead to one more.

What I'd do if I was Northwestern's...

OC:  I said Illinois needed to use the pass to set up the run and the same is true for you.  Obviously, you're suffering from some key injuries that's hampering your offense.  Bacher looked pretty good when he came back into the game against Michigan.  Hopefully he's good enough to play the whole 60 minutes, because you're going to need him.  Illinois' defense isn't exactly crushing, but their line is decent enough and you're a one-sided offense now.  Turn Bacher loose and move the sticks through the air.  Illinois' rushing defense is their weaker point, but your rushing offense is now yours.  Use a mid-range attack to soften the defense a little, then let Simmons get comfortable sprinting through the line.

DC:  I don't know how many times I have had to say this, but this will probably be the last: stop Juice Wiliams.  Box him in, any way you can and force him to be a pocket passer.  At least keep him behind the line of scrimmage.  For a very good passer, he's not real comfortable when he's trapped behind the line.  He makes mistakes.  So keep him there and hope he makes them.  Your secondary is going to have to step it up, though.  Even though Juice likes to run the ball as much as he does pass, he's a very good passer and he'll pick you apart if you're not careful.  Keep your coverage tight and get some pressure at the line so Williams has to either run or pass quickly. 

What will likely happen (maybe)...

When they're healthy, Northwestern is the better team.  They're the more balanced team.  But they're not healthy.  They're a one-sided team, and even that one side is barely healthy.  This game will come down to two things: who wants it more?  And which Illinois team shows up?  The one that lost to Indiana?  Or the one that beat Minnesota?  Illinois has more riding on this game than Northwestern since the Wildcats have already locked in a bowl game.  I think Illinois steps up and takes this one.

Pick: Illinois 26 - Northwestern 24

Actual: Northwestern 27 - Illinois 10

Evidently Illinois didn't really want to go to a bowl game...  I'll gladly take this missed pick.  Northwestern's big win gives me hope that this team can still win whatever bowl game they end up going to.  Considering how Illinois has played this year, it may be a good thing they're not going bowling.  Gear up for next year Illini.  Shake this season off.  It's not like you really have a choice, now, is it? 

Indiana @ Purdue

I have been pretty hard on the Hoosiers this year.  I like to think I'm a fair person and in fairness, Indiana hasn't done much to give me good things to say.  Also in fairness, however, the Hoosiers did hold Penn State to just ten points in the first half of their game last week.  Even though the Nittany Lions came out flat, they're still an excellent team.  Holding them down was no small feat.  However, they didn't do so well in the second half of that game.  They'll need to play the whole game this week to possibly get out of the cellar of the Big Ten.

Purdue isn't quite as bad as they look.  They do put up points.  They have played decent defense.  They just haven't been able to do them both at the same time, nor consistently.  It's to their benefit that they get to face a very weak Indiana team to end their season.  They need something positive to take them into the offseason, and they need a nice win in front of the home crowd. 

What I'd do if I was Indiana's...

OC:  You get one of the weakest defenses in the conference this week.  This is a good opportunity to do the things you weren't able to do all year.  Just be careful.  They kept things a lot closer than expected against OSU and PSU and very nearly beat Iowa last week.  You've got to attack and try to put them down quickly.  Purdue's rush defense is their weakest link, so attack it.  Thigpen is inconsistent, but can be very explosive.  Give him the ball and make him produce.  I would like to see 20+ touches.  Consistency doesn't come in just 8 short bursts.  Let him carry the offense.  Also, forget about Kellen Lewis.  I like the kid, but he's doing nothing this year.  If Thigpen can get something generating on the ground, Purdue will have to bring their defense in tighter to slow him down.  Then Chappell can really go to work.  Once you start rolling over the Purdue defense, don't let up.  Your D will have troubles of their own, so expect a shootout.  Pull out some of those plays that you've saved for special occasions.  This is as special as it'll get for you this year.

DC:  Purdue has a couple of threats they can throw at you.  If Painter is healthy, he'll have plenty of options at his disposal to go at you.  Orton and Tardy are his favorite targets, but Smith isn't far behind.  He's very good at spreading the wealth.  Sheets is also there to burn you on the ground.  What to do, what to do?  You're going to have to go back to the tape and see what you were doing against Penn State last week in the first half.  Mainly, you're going to have to get solid play out of your line.  They've got to stay in their lanes so Sheets doesn't have open range.  You're going to have to send a linebacker or two on blitzes now and again to try and put pressure on Painter.  They're going to put up some points on you unless you can put together a coverage package that'll slow down the pass game.  The Zone will be your best friend, if you play it well.  Keep you people on their assignments and try to eliminate the deep ball.  Force Purdue to get their yards a few at a time. 

What I'd do if I was Purdue's...

OC:  Did you see what Shonn Greene did to you?  Kory Sheets is no Shonn Greene...but he's a pretty darn good RB in his own right.  This is a good week to pad his stats.  Let him start your offense rolling.  Then Painter should have little trouble finding people open to throw to.  Indiana's D is ranked worse than 90th in every facet, so have a ball.  Just be sure to protect it while you're having it.

DC:  Hmmm...where's the threat here?  Thigpen could be a decent back, but his yardage is pretty darn low.  If Lewis is even in the lineup, it won't be at QB, and he's just not effective as a runner.  That leaves Chappell and his minions.  By all means, don't forget about Thigpen.  He can burn you, if you're not careful, but Chappell is the man you're going to have to beat to beat Indiana.  Get in his face.  Make him throw on the run.  You yourself said that Chris Carlino was the best freshman LB in the country right now.  Turn him on and turn him loose.  Let him run amok on Thigpen and Chappell.

What will likely happen...

Purdue's offense has more tools in the drawer than Indiana's and both defenses are bad.  Purdue will crawl out of the cellar and leave Indiana with the honor of being the worst team in the Big Ten this year.

Pick: Purdue 34 - Indiana 20

Actual: Purdue 62 - Indiana 10

WHAT????  Wow!  Well, now.  I guess there was no question there who wanted it more...and who could do something about it!  Indiana is officially the basement dwellers of the Big Ten.  i'm thoroughly impressed that Purdue got such a huge win.  Way to send Tiller out in style.  I never would have imagined this score in a million years.  Too bad there wasn't a bowl game hinging on a blowout like this....

Cal Poly @ Wisconsin

Of all the intrigue this week brings, this game may have the most.  Who is Cal Poly?  How good are they?  Their record is great (8-1).  Their stats are great (see my First Look).  BUT...they play the equivalent of high school teams during the season.  As PSPKNINE so aptly put it, this is a team that has nothing to lose.  Even if they lose the game, they gain exposure and irreplaceable experience.  This should be a rout by Wisconsin, but Cal Poly is a big unknown.  If Wisconsin comes out thinking this is a cake walk, they could be very surprised.  What a statement it would make for the Mustangs to upset the mighty Badgers of the Big Ten!

What I'd do if I was Cal Poly's...

OC:  This is tough to do since I know so little about you, but here's what I think:  you've got to pull out all the stops this week.  This is your one big shot to showcase everything you have in the vault against a big school with lots of people watching.  It works in your favor that your passing game is your strongest suit and Wisconsin's pass defense is their weakest.  Evidently Dally doesn't make many mistakes (20 TD's to 1 INT) and Barden has over 1000 yards receiving with 15 TD's.  No doubt Wisconsin has noticed this.  So...throw to Tolver and Noble.  No kidding.  Spread the ball around.  We here in the Big Ten value using your TE as a receiver, so get him involved often.  TE's are the hardest to cover anyway because they can be so deceptive at the line.  Use the shorter passes (5-10 yards) to keep the chains moving.  You'll have to throw quickly, though.  Wisconsin's D line is pretty big and physical.  They'll be better than anything you've probably seen all year.  Get rid of the ball before the LB's/Safeties have a chance to read the play and make a move.  Use the run game as a secondary means to keep the defense guessing, but not as a primary tool for scoring.  You want the D to think you can run the ball, but you really can't.  Not against this defense.  Pull all of your trick plays out of the bag and put them to use.  Some will backfire, but you've got to do something to get the defense off of you.

DC:  Unfortunately, I know even less about you than I do the offense.  Hill and Clay make a pretty formidable duo for the Badgers.  I don't know who you have in you LB Corps that can stop them, but that's your main focus.  The Badger pass attack is not very consistent.  Sherer has thrown as many INT's as he has TD's, so work on slowing down the rush and forcing Sherer to take this game on his shoulders.  Gilreath may give you troubles.  Put someone on him constantly.  Force Wisconsin into making some mistakes, preferrably of the turnover variety, and you may be able to keep your team in this thing.  Momentum can be a killer, so get it on your side.

Head Coach:  This is a once-in-a-lifetime kind of day.  No matter what your school does in your own division, your players will always remember the day they played the Badgers.  This could be the greatest day of their football lives.  Seize the day.  Get them fired up and make them believe they can win this game.

What I'd do if I was Wisconsin's...

OC:  I hope you have game tape of this team, because I sure as shootin' don't.  The main thing is to keep your players focused.  Don't let them relax just because Cal Poly isn't even in the same division you are.  Don't take them lightly.  Run PJ Hill early and often to pound on their defense.  Wear them out.  Then let Sherer do his thing.  He should, hopefully, have plenty of time to make good decisions and find open targets. 

DC:  Put pressure on Dally.  He's been nearly flawless this year, but he's probably not faced the likes of you.  Get your down linemen fired up to chow on some Mustang meat, but if they can't seem to find their way to the QB, send an extra man or two now and again.  Let's see how effective and efficient Mr. Dally is when he's got some big boys in his face all day long.  Keep a close eye on Barden.  He is, by far, their most prolific weapon.  Keep him under wraps and you'll force the Mustangs to play a much less effective (or comfortable) game.  As I said about the OC...don't take this team lightly and make sure your guys keep their focus.  You've salvaged a disastrous season thus far, don't blow it all now by going down to the Mustangs.

What will likely happen...

I really want to say this will be a mindless blowout, but I'm not so sure.  This is a poor man's trap game.  Common sense dictates that Wisconsin should have a layup on their hands.  There's just that little nagging voice that says to me that Cal Poly is a lot tougher than most would think.  Still, Wisconsin is looking good and they know they need this one to lock in a bowl game.  It could be much closer than expected, but the Badgers have far too many weapons on both sides of the ball to let this one slip away from them.

Pick: Wisconsin 28 - Cal Poly 20

Actual: Wisconsin 36 - Cal Poly 35  OT

Oh my....missed PAT's is the story of this one.  I knew it was going to be a close game....okay, I didn't know it was going to be close...but I suspected it would be.  Cal Poly is a very good team and we often don't give nearly enough credit to lower conferences and definitely not to Div 1AA teams.  Some of them can play with most schools anywhere.  I think this is one of those teams.  Cal Poly missed a PAT in the 2nd Qtr...again in the 4th...and again in OT.  If they'd made either of the first two, it never would have made it to OT  Had they made the last one, it would have gone to double OT.  Basically...they handed the game to Wisconsin.  Still, give props to the Badgers for holding down a very talented QB and playing all the way through.  Great win.  It's just unfortunate that they'll get ripped for not winning this one bigger. 

Michigan @ Ohio State

I don't have to say that this game just isn't what it was supposed to be, so I won't.  Oops, I guess I already did.  Oh well.  It isn't.  Michigan can't seem to put together a really good game for anything and Ohio State needs this to have any shot at the Rose Bowl.

What I'd do if I was Michigan's...

Update: It appears Threet is out and Sheridan is in.  That makes things even tougher for the Wolverines and better for the Buckeyes.  I won't change the score on my pick, but it should make Michigan's score even lower...

OC:  Who's your RB?  Who's your QB?  You need to have that all ironed out.  Ohio State has a crushing defense.  Brown looked pretty good last week.  I would definitely keep him in the lineup.  If there's a weakness to be found on the Buckeye defense (and there really isn't), then it's their ability to stop the run.  You've got three decent RB's at your disposal, rotate them.  It will keep the Buckeyes from getting a good feel for your rush attack.  Threet will need to spread the wealth and keep his passes short.  I honestly don't think your line will be able to keep OSU out for very long, so use short drops and quick passes.  It seems I've said that a lot lately, but it's the best way to attack a defense that's better than your offense.  It doesn't give them time to get their defenders in position to make a play.  At this point in your season, you'll have to use every possible advantage you can get.

DC:  You're going to have to slow down Wells.  He's slippery, sneaky and tough to bring down.  You're going to have to work all week on making solid tackles.  By now you shouldn't have to, but you do.  Pryor is pretty electic and Robiskie is his favorite target when he throws.  Get a scheme together that makes it difficult for Robiskie to get open and force Pryor to pick someone else.  Keep your linemen mobile.  Pryor can run and he'll defnitely do it, so your line will have to get off their blocks and be able to move down the line quickly.  Speed will be your friend, if you don't get buried under a pile of Buckeyes.  Attack from every angle and keep your safeties' heads in the game.  They'll be the difference in the pass defense.

What I'd do if I was Ohio State's...

OC:  It's hard to believe that your pass attack is rated 107th, but according to foxsports, that's the case.  It's all good, though.  Part of the reason that stat is so low is because Pryor runs the ball as much as he throws it.  Michigan's pass defense is weak and you have a very strong run game to fall back on, in case the pass game never unfolds for you.  Wells is just 43 yards shy of the 1000 mark.  He should have that in the first quarter.  Let him carry the offense and the pass game will come around.  Michigan's defense is plain old bad.  You should be able to tee off on them this week.  Expect them to be fired up for this game, though.  Use every weapon in your arsenal this week.  You really want to embarrass the Wolverines.

DC:  Your pass offense is only slightly less existant than Michigan's.  Theirs is rated 106th and its not because their QB rushes all the time.  Go after Threet with everything you have.  He rushes more because he has to rather than by design.  Keep your secondary active.  They need to be aggressive in their coverage.  Don't give Threet a target he can hit with any consistency.  He's got 9 TD's and 7 INT's.  Force him to make snap decisions, then make him pay for it.  Keep him on his back and he'll end up handing the ball over to you.  Attack with extreme prejudice.  You want to make a statement this game.

With Threet out, you're facing a young, inexperienced QB playing in the biggest game of his career.  Ratlle his cage and see how well he handles the pressure.

What will likely happen...

I want so badly to say that Michigan will pull it together this week and make this a great game.  I want to...but I won't.  Michigan isn't good this year and Ohio State is.  Rivalry or not, Michigan just isn't up to making this a contest.  OSU walks away with this one.

Pick: Ohio State 38 - Michigan 16

Actual: Ohio State 42 - Michigan 7

So much for the rivalry, eh?  I'm sure it'll pick back up in a year or three, but just as so many people have said...Michigan just wasn't up to this game.  Ohio State made a big statement and should get a BCS at-large spot with this win. 

Michigan State @ Penn State

In anyone else's book, this would be the game of the week.  This is for all the Big Ten marbles.  Both of these teams are in the hunt for the Rose Bowl and neither of them can afford to worry about what's going on in Columbus.  Both teams have solid defense.  Both teams have an effective offense.  Both teams need this win.  This should be the best game of the week.

What I'd do if I was Michigan State's...

OC:  You have to take a few cues from the one team that managed to defeat Penn State this year.  Shonn Greene put up 117 yards against the Lions and opened up a little bit of a passing game.  I'm not sold that Javon Ringer is as good as Greene...he just gets more carries.  But, if he's not the best running back in the country, then he's the second best and that's good enough for what you need.  Give Ringer his 30+ carries and wear out the Lion defense.  He'll get stopped plenty of times, but eventually he'll start getting the production you need from him.  He's a 4th quarter back anyway.  In the meantime, Hoyer's going to have to be very busy.  The short passes will be key this week again.  Keep working the corners and occasionallly you'll find your TE over the middle.  Don't try to get it all in one shot.  Just move the chains and chew up the clock.  Then let Ringer take you home. 

DC:  Royster has largely been overlooked at RB, but the man has an impressive 6.5 yrd/carry average and 1123 yards.  You're going to have to slow him down.  Don't count on Clark throwing the pick ball, either, because he doesn't do it often.  Slow down the tempo.  PSU likes to move the ball quickly and efficiently, but if you can force them to play your tempo, you will start to see how to get at them.  Whether you focus on Royster or Clark, you have to slow down at least one aspect of the PSU attack and make them one dimensional.  It's your only hope, so pick one and go after them aggressively.  For my money, I'd rather see you shut down the run.  Passing is risky business no matter how good you are. 

What I'd do if I was Penn State's...

OC:  Here's your first play from scrimmage:  play action pass to Butler with Williams as your second read.  Why?  Put MSU on their heals right off the bat.  Then you can come back with Royster and punch them in the teeth.  MSU's pass defense isn't bad, but they'll respect Royster.  Make them second guess themselves early on and Royster will run them over while they're trying to figure things out.  Truthfully, Royster will be your key all day long, but you can't just hand him the ball every down, nor would you want to with Clark in the game.  Use both in tandem, but let Clark start the action with his arm.  A nice mid-range pass can do wonders for putting the defense off on the wrong foot.

DC:  Javon Ringer is the key to the Spartan offense and they'll use him often, so shut him down.  Yes, Hoyer is a talented QB and you can't ignore him, but take away the run game and MSU will find the sledding very difficult.  You've got no problems with your pass defense, so stopping the run is top priority.  Just keep your heads in the game.  This one's for the Roses.  You win and all the other talk is gone. 

What will likely happen:

Both of these teams are talented and down the stretch this could turn into a great game.  In the end, PSU's defense is just too stout.  MSU takes too long to get Ringer rolling in this one.  They'll be fighting from behind and will run out of time on the clock.

Pick: Penn State 24 - Michigan State 17

Actual: Penn State 49 - Michigan State 18

All talk of the Rose Bowl is over...unless, of course, the Nittany Lions get a better bowl.  I don't know that there is such a thing as a "better" bowl, but you know what I mean.  Either way, PSU wanted this win badly and it shows.  It also goes right along with what's happened all year...get a week off...lose.  Ringer was held to under 50 yards rushing.  That makes a huge difference when you can take away a teams primary weapon.  That was a statement game too.  I feel sorry for whoever draws PSU for the Roses.  What a way to end the regular season!

My Game of the Week:

Iowa @ Minnesota

This one could end up a lot better than it should be.  Iowa's locked for a bowl, as is Minnesota, but Iowa's coming off two straight wins, including that big one over Penn State.  They were sloppy against Purdue last week and barely escaped with the win.  The weather was brutal last week, though, and they'll be playing in the dome this week.  However...Iowa's road record is attrocious.

What I'd do if I was Iowa's...

OC:  Shonn Greene had a career day last week.  This week could be just as good.  Minnesota's rush defense isn't great.  Give Greene another 30 carries and see how many yards he can amass.  Ricki Stanzi is green too...green behind the ears.  He's grown up a lot this year, but he's still making stupid mistakes.  He'll learn.  Use Greene (Shonn, that is) to tenderize the Gopher defense, then get Stanzi, DJK, and Brodell rolling downfield.  Myers will be the straw that breaks the camel's back.  Minnesota isn't good enough to keep their eyes on that many people.  Your play at the line will be crucial to all of this, so make sure they're healthy, strong and focused.  Most of all....protect the football!  The Gophers forced Wisconsin into five fumbles.  You're not good at recovering from those kinds of mistakes, so just don't make them.

DC:  Key on Weber.  The Gopher rush attack is mediocre and you should be able to handle it.  Aside from Weber, himself, that is.  You've got to disrupt the passing game, though.  Light a fire under Mitch King.  Get him into the backfield disrupting the rythm.  As always, if/when the Gophers get down near the goal, lock down.  You can't count on Minnesota making the same mistake Purdue did, twice in the same drive.  When they score, it'll stick, so don't let them get that far.  Your secondary has to be on their game.  Decker could give you trouble, so make sure your guys stick to their assignments.  You play zone more often than man, so assignments are key.  Get after Weber!!

What I'd do if I was Minnesota's...

OC:  Once again, take what Iowa gives you.  Weber is a solid QB, so use him to his full potential.  He won't find a lot of yards on the ground as a rushing QB, but he can rack up mad yards in the air throwing the short passes.  Just keep moving the chains a little at a time.  Both Penn State and Purdue were able to put together drives of 15+ plays.  That kind of production will wear any defense down.  Iowa still has the 11th ranked defense in terms of scoring, but they're not impenatrable.  When you get to the short field, pound the ground a couple of times with Eskridge, then drop a quick pass with Weber again.  You can find success, it'll just take a lot of patience.

DC:  Everyone in the Big Ten knows that Shonn Greene = Iowa's offense.  Shut him down and you force Ricki Stanzi to carry the offense.  The problem is...no one has been able to shut Greene down.  Not even Penn State could.  That's okay, you have another option at your disposal: turnovers.  Iowa usually runs Greene about 20-25 times/ game.  Only recently has he seen more carries.  That still leaves plenty of time to get at Stanzi.  He's fumble prone.  Make him give you the ball back, especially on Iowa's side of the field.  Try to beat Iowa at their own game.  Force them to play a short field and don't give them time to set up anything better.  Hit them hard.  Your tackles have to count.  Greene doesn't fumble much, but other people have shown they're not immune. 

What will likely happen...

Iowa is terrible on the road, but Minnesota barely feels like a road trip.  Nearly as many Iowa fans show up as Gopher fans do.  Minnesota won't find much help in the way of home field advantage.  Shonn Greene will finish his season with a perfect sweep of 100+ yard games.  The question will be: can Minnesota force Iowa to turn the ball over enough to keep them in it?  They may, but in the end Iowa will put out a solid drive that will put the Gophers behind with no time left to recover. 

Pick: Iowa 23 - Minnesota 21

Actual: Iowa 55 - Minnesota 0

WOW!  The last half of this game was pretty boring, but holy smokes, what a can that was opened today!  Shonn Greene had his 12th consecutive 100+ yard game and took the honor of being the single season rushing leader at Iowa.  The Hawks looked better than they've looked in any game all year.  Minnesota put up a great fight...for about a quarter.  It was a physical game with a lot of hard hits, but Iowa started walking away early and never looked back.  Even their second string was putting a hurt down.  If that doesn't make the statement that they deserve a good bowl game, nothing will.

I missed one this week, but overall a pretty decent week.  There were a lot of games that weren't even close, but good games played all around.  I can't wait to see how the bowl picture finally plays out.  I'll try to stay on top of it and update as information becomes available. 

Don't go away, I'll keep posting right up through the bowl games.  I'm planning an in-depth look at every team in the Big Ten leading up to and through the bowl season. 

Okay folks...there they are.  It's sad that this is the end of the season, but I'm excited about the games going on this week.  Good luck to all and Happy Bowl Hunting!!!

If you haven't already, be sure to check out the other Big Ten bloggers:

SEABASS

PSPKNINE

These guys are the best!

It's rivalry week across the country.  I never quite understood why this was rivalry week.  Aren't there some other pretty good rivalries that go on throughout the year?  How about Michigan/Michigan State?  Iowa/Iowa State (granted ISU isn't in the Big Ten, but it's still and in-state rivalry)?  Does Wisconsin have no rivalry?  They're not playing anyone in the conference this week, and I dare say that Cal Poly is not a real rival of the Badgers. 

Anyway, you didn't come to First Look to read me question the validity of Rivalry Week.  You came to hear about the games (or I hope you did, anyway)!  Before I get into them, I'll repost the conference standings so you can see what's on the line for the teams in the Big Ten this week.  As it now sits we have 6 teams locked for a bowl game, one that should lock this week and one more that can become eligible.  Here's the layout:

PENN STATE (10-1) overall (6-1) Big Ten:  Fast track to Rose Bowl.  Win and they're in.  Locked for a Bowl.

OHIO STATE (9-2) overall (6-1) Big Ten: in hunt for Rose Bowl if MSU beats PSU next week and OSU beats Michigan.  Locked for a Bowl.

MICHIGAN STATE (9-2) overall (6-1) Big Ten: in hunt for Rose Bowl if Mich beats OSU next week and they beat PSU.  Locked for a Bowl.

NORTHWESTERN (8-3) overall (4-3) Big Ten: Locked for a Bowl.

IOWA (7-4) overall (4-3) Big Ten: Locked for a Bowl.

MINNESOTA (7-4) overal (3-4) Big Ten: Locked for a Bowl.

ILLINOIS (5-6) overall (3-4) Big Ten: Bowl possible, but unlikely.

WISCONSIN (6-5) overall (3-5) Big Ten: Bowl probable.

MICHIGAN (3-8) overall (2-5) Big Ten: As the Soup Nazi would say: No Bowl for You!

PURDUE (3-8) overall (1-6) Big Ten: No Bowl for You!

INDIANA (3-8) overall (1-6) Big Ten: No Bowl for You!

That's where they stand now...so on to this week's games!

Indiana @ Purdue

There's something nearly as important on the line for both of these teams as a bowl: trying to stay off the bottom of the Big Ten ladder.  The winner can claim a minor moral victory, while the loser's only claim to fame will be that no one throws away a season better than they do!

Indiana held close to Penn State for half a game last weekend.  then typical Hoosier football happened and they got smoked.  This week they'll face an offense that can be effective when they're not busy shooting themselves in the foot.  The Hoosiers also get to face a defense that has been walked all over the entire season.  If they can put together some kind of defense this week, Indiana has a chance to tie the Mighty Michigan Wolverines...for second to worst in the conference.

Purdue, meanwhile, played Iowa fairly tough at Kinnick Stadium.  Despite getting completely run over by Shonn Greene (literally a couple of times), the Boilermakers found a way to hang in.  A couple of stupid penatlies negated a TD, not once, but twice in the second quarter.  Had they kept their heads about them, they might have made that game a whole lot tougher for the Hawkeyes.  Even so, they were one play away from victory.  If they can take positives from that close loss, they can easily find a way to knock off a very weak Indiana team.  Just a week ago I read a story, or blog, or something that said that Purdue's defense was solid while their offense has struggled.  I don't know, but when I see a defense that has allowed 281 points to be put up against them, while scoring 234, I'm not seeing a strong defense.  I'm also not seeing a terribly weak offense.  It's an inconsistenr offense, but not a terrible one. 

This game will actually be a defensive battle, but not the kind we're used to seeing.  It'll be a battle to see which defense will be able to make the critical stop when it matters.  It'll look more like an offensive shootout...but defense will be the key.

Illinois @ Northwestern

Illinois is coming off a tough loss at the hands of Ohio State and still find themselves one game shy of being bowl eligible.  I'm sure this isn't how the Zookster foresaw this season panning out.  That's what happens when you put all your eggs in one basket though.  Juice Williams is their first, last, and only real line of attack.  For teams with a solid defense, they've only to stop Williams to stall the Illini offense.  Sometimes that's easier said than done, but it's been done six times this season and if they're not careful, it could be seven.  This is a must-win for the Illini.  The chances of getting a bowl berth even after a win here are slim to none, but the chance of getting one without a win is zero.  Ending their season with a win over a 9 win Wildcat team might be enough to convince a bowl somewhere to invite the Illini to warmer weather.  Most of all, Williams and the Illini clan are fighting for a little pride.  They definitely don't want to go home with a losing record in, what was supposed to be, a big year.

Northwestern is badly injured.  Their rush attack is missing both Sutton and Conteh.  QB Kafka is likely out for the finale, though Bacher is back.  Bacher is the better QB, in my opinion, but Kafka's ability to run the ball helps offset the missing RB's.  NW is likely to be a one-dimensional football team on the offensive side of the board.  That won't be a good thing considering Illinois' pass defense isn't that shabby.  Still, this is a team that has earned 9 wins.  For Northwestern, that alone is a feat few saw coming.  They didn't get to this point by pure, dumb luck.  Their offense may be wounded, but it's not dead.  Their defense isn't exactly spectacular, but it may be sufficient, if it can figure out how to slow down Juice Williams.  Perhaps the biggest hinderence to a Wildcat win is the fact that they're locked for a decent bowl game.  They don't really need this win.  They can't win the conference.  They definitely can't play for the national title.  There's just nothing left to really fight for, except pride.

Wisconsin hosts Cal Poly

I actually like this game.  It's not that it's destined to be a real barn burner.  I just like that Wisconsin has an OoC game to end their season.  Don't ask me why.  Ok...since you already did...I guess it's that Wisconsin has battled through everything under the sun this year to become bowl eligible, and now they get to roll out of town against a Cal Poly team that they should beat.  I know it's not sexy or overly exciting, but I look at this game and feel a welcome sense of relief.  The Big Ten season is over for the Badgers.  They've done all they can do, now they get someone different to concentrate on.  This one should lock them into a bowl and make the seventh Big Ten team seeing action in December or January.  As long as...

Wisconsin can't take Cal Poly too lightly.  Cal Poly is 8-1.  They have a QB (J. Dally) who's thrown 20 TD's to only 1 INT.  They have three ball carriers who have combined for 25 more TD's.  Yes, all of these nice stats (or most, anyway) have come against competition that doesn't even remotely rival Big Ten play, but it does denote an offensive prowess that Wisconsin should take very seriously.  Really??  Yes, really.  Rule #1: Never underestimate your opponent.  If Wisconsin walks into this game thinking it's a slam dunk, they could find themselves in a tight spot.  Without this win, they don't go to a bowl.  Their great win over Minnesota will completely voided if they lose to a school the size of Cal Poly...especially since it's on their own home turf...in weather that should have the Mustangs frozen solid to their bench.

Michigan @ Ohio State

For one brief, shining moment, two weeks ago, Michigan began to look like the Michigan of old.  They mopped up the field with an unsuspecting Minnesota team....in the Metrodome.  Then, everything went south again when they lost to a wounded Wildcat team.  As if to rub salt in an open wound, that loss was the eighth for the Wolverines, the most they've ever had in a single season.  Michigan gets to follow up that stellar performance by visiting the Buckeyes at the Horse Shoe...with a Rose Bowl berth on the line for Ohio State.  Can anyone say "not the right time for this game"?  Normally, this would be a five star, must-see game.  Now it just looks like a chance for the Buckeyes to turn up the heat on Penn State and run up the stats for some of their all-stars.  Michigan has got to have lost all heart.  Can they pull it together for one game?  This is their golden opportunity to play spoiler to the Buckeyes Rose Bowl hopes.  What better way to salvage a disastrous season than by knocking your arch rival out of the only big game they have left?  It's also a chance to put up a fourth win and try to have something positive to carry them into next season.  They have to find some way to stop the bleeding.

For Ohio State, this game has obviously lost all the lustre, but not the importance.  They need Michigan State to knock off Penn State before they can get to Pasadena, but they also have to get past the Wolverines.  Look past this game and you could get burned.  Michigan isn't good this year.  Far from it.  But they did show spunk against the Golden Gophers.  They have the tools hidden somewhere up their sleeves to make this a close game.  The question is: can they find them?  The Buckeyes know exactly where all their tools are located: on the field.  Wells should slice through the Michigan D like a katana through whipped cream, and Pryor should light them up like a Christmas display.  They just need to stay focused for one more game, then wait to see what fate delivers to them.

Michigan State @ Penn State

Michigan State needs this game.  There's no two ways about that.  The Spartans still harbor hopes of seeing the Parade of Roses first hand.  They'll need a little help to get there, but they can't focus on that right now.  Right now they have a very determined Nittany Lion team standing in their way.  Michigan State has had a remarkable season all their own.  After losing a close one to Cal to start the season, the Spartans rolled out six straight wins before getting hammered by Ohio State.  Still, they didn't fall apart, like many teams do, and have ripped off three more wins consecutively.  Javon Ringer has lost the lead in the rushing stats, and that may be reason enough for him to kick it up a notch this week and test Penn State's resolve.  Their defense will have their hands full, but they'll come out fired up and ready to slow down Royster.  Hoyer will have to be on his game, though.  Penn State is killer against the pass.  Michigan is a lock for a great bowl game this year, but that's not enough.  They haven't been this close to a Rose Bowl berth in quite a while.  They're not about to let this opportunity slip by without a fight.

Penn State needs this game just as badly.  If they lose this one, they not only will have lost their spot in the NCG, but will watch the Rose Bowl go to someone else also.  They're the only team of the three competing for a shot at the Roses who has their fate in their own hands.  Win and they're in, it's that simple.  They started a little slow against Indiana last weekend and allowed the Hapless Hoosiers to stay in the game for a full half.  Do that against MSU and they'll find themselves fighting from behind.  They get this one at home, though, and the crowd won't let them lay down on the job.  MSU gives up quite a few yards on the ground and through the air, but they still find ways to win.  Penn State needs to put this one away early, but it won't be easy.  This one's not just for the Roses; it's for a sense of normalcy.  You can write off one game as a fluke or a bad day in the rain.  Two, however, leaves a nagging doubt.  If Clark and Royster are on their games, they can put this one behind them and head to Pasadena to unload their remaining frustrations on the PAC 10.

My Game of the Week

Iowa @ Minnesota

Iowa pulled out an ugly win over a Purdue team they should have slaughtered.  Some say Iowa's not that good.  Others say Purdue's better than their record indicates.  I say Iowa is potentially the best team in the conference, and Purdue is better than their record indicates.  But then again, I'm biased.  Unashamedly so.  Still, that win wasn't exactly the kind of win I wanted to see Iowa get before heading north to face the Golden Gophers.  Minnesota is on a huge slide, but they're still a decent team and Iowa has not been good on the road.  Six of their seven wins have come at home and three of their four losses were on the road.  The Hawkeyes are pretty much locked into a bowl, but which one exactly is up to them...maybe.  Maybe?  Well, according to Hawkeye Nation, Iowa could get a spot in the Outback Bowl whether they win or lose this one, but a win would nearly lock them in.  If not this one, then the Alamo Bowl is their likely destination.  Both are good bowls and considering they were home for Christmas last year, any bowl is better than last year.  The Hawks do have more than just bowl games to fight for, though.  That nasty little three game losing streak in the middle of the season, coupled with that loss at Illinois has kept Iowa off everyone's radar as a truly good team.  It doesn't matter how close they were, or who ended up ranked and who didn't, or any of that other stuff that we Iowa fans toss about to talk up our team.  They lost and that's the bottom line.  Iowa caught everyone's attention with the win over PSU, but another big win over Minnesota would help solidify that Iowa really can beat someone with a pulse.  Also there's the issue of boosting Shonn Greene's cred with the Heisman people.  I'm royally irked that Kirk Ferentz won't do more to promote the best back in the league, but it is what it is.  Shonn's on his own there, so this is his last chance to prove he really needs to be in the discussion.

Minnesota has watched their dream season fall completely apart.  Not so long ago, I was singing their praises, much like everyone else in the country.  That was before their three game losing streak.  Suddenly, a very good looking Gopher team is looking pretty mediocre.  They'll have their hands full slowing down Greene, but if Minnesota can put pressure on Ricki Stanzi, all bets are off regarding the consistency of Iowa's offense.  Minnesota knows this already and likely will be making plans for it.  This is a pretty big game for Minnesota.  Not only is it a rivalry game that's gone back many years, it's their last chance to impress some bowl people and (most importantly) get some positive momentum going before bowl season starts.  Bottom line: Minnesota needs to find something positive before they go to a bowl.  Bad karma follows you.  Maybe karma's the wrong word to use there, but you get my drift.  Minnesota needs to turn things around and getting a win over Iowa would be a huge boost to their confidence, plus it would give them the sendoff they deserve in the Metrodome for the final time.

Okay folks.  That's it for my first look.  I'll be back tomorrow night to put up my picks for the last time this regular season.  Good luck and Happy bowl hunting!!

It's time to get down to business.  I've laid out what the teams in the Big Ten are facing this week, now it's time to get down to brass tacks and lay my picks on the line.  There are some pretty good games on tap and several teams are hoping for bowls.  Without further ado, here are the picks:

Ok, time for the updates.  The bowl picture is beginning to shape up nicely now.  Wisconsin made themselves bowl eligible and next week should secure one for them (knock on wood Badger fans).  There's still a tight race for the conference championship though, and you gotta love when it comes down to the very last week to crown a champion!  Okay, I'll get on to the scores...

One more thing before I do, though.  This week was really a tale of two halves.  For two of the games, the team leading at half wasn't the one on top at the end.  For another, it was a very close game at half and a blowout when all was said and done.  It's not significant other than to confirm that you have to play all 60 minutes and it showed this week. 

Northwestern @ Michigan

This game suddenly became a lot more interesting, thanks to Michigan's manhandling of Minnesota.  A week ago I would have picked Northwestern without a second thought.  I've had to give this one a little more thought.  Northwestern is hurting, literally and figuratively.  Not so long ago they were undefeated and beginning to think about a possible Big Ten title.  Three losses in five games later and Northwestern's starting to wonder what happened. 

Michigan on the other hand, found something they'd been missing all year: dominance.  They were dominant on offense and they were dominant on defense.  If it had been against Purdue, I'd have thought nothing of it, but it was against a Golden Gopher team that hadn't been truly dominated all season long. 

What I'd do if I was Northwestern's...

OC:  You'd better work the offensive line.  Your version of the spread offense is fine, but it won't go anywhere if you can't control the line.  Michigan's secondary is too fast, so your receivers won't get open immediately.  You have to buy time.  You also are going to need more than a little room for Stephen Simmons to get the running game going.  Michigan's defense isn't nearly as good as Ohio State's, but they're quick enough to plug the holes quickly, so they'd better be some mighty big holes.  Simmons isn't good enough to make things happen with little room.  If the O-Line can't give you the room or time you need, then your quarterback needs to work on his timing with the quick pass.  Slants and outs may have to be your best friend, because they may be the only friend you have.  Word of caution: they're fickle friends.

DC:  Michigan's offensive line won't quite compare to Ohio State's either, but they're decent enough.  Quickness is the name of Michigan's game.  You probably won't be much quicker, so you'll have to be tougher.  Dig in the trenches.  Strategically use the blitz.  Use Nate Williams to get pressure on Threet or Sheridan, whichever gets the call to start.  It would be good for you if it's Sheridan.  He had a good week last week, but can he do it twice?  Keep your secondary mobile.  Michigan will test your speed on the corners.  You might want to think seriously about what zone works best for you and make it work for you.

What I'd do if I was Michigan's...

OC:  Northwestern's defense isn't really their problem.  It's not great, but it's also not been great.  Attack with extreme prejudice.  Your WR's are faster than their D-backs, so drop the bomb on them.  Push your runs to the outside and make them give chase.  I think you've got more speed than they do everywhere you look.  Just make sure your line can hold theirs for a couple of seconds to give your plays time to develop.

DC:  You're the key to the whole game.  Your offense should have decent success, so a win will be determined by how well you handle their offense.  If Kafka starts again for NW, he's very mobile.  He's as apt to tuck and run as he is to hand off or drop back to pass.  Keep your guys in their lanes so he has nowhere to go.  Your secondary should handle their receivers fairly well, so don't be afraid to send your linebackers in occasionally to disrupt the tempo.  Dominate at the line like you did last week and you've got this thing in the bag.

What will likely happen:  I'm not sold on the idea that Michigan's back.  I think last week was a sign of what could be, not what is.  Still, Northwestern is suffering from some injuries of their own and is having really inconsistent play right now.  This game will depend entirely on which Michigan team shows up.  I think we already know which NW team will.  Michigan steals this one.

Pick: Michigan 27 - Northwestern 21

Actual: Northwestern 21 - Michigan 14

This is one of those games I was talking about.  Michigan had a 14-7 lead going into the half and handed it away.  Interesting to note that this is the first time in Michigan history that they've lost 8 games in a single season (that's 129 years), or so says their home page.  I had a nice long thought on RR's thinking going into this year and how it might just pan out for him over the next couple of years, but with that handy record, who knows it he'll be back next year??  Anyway, I really thought Michigan could win this game, especially the way they played last week.  I'll repeat what I said above: you have to play all 60 minutes and evidently they didn't quite do that.  Oh well....I guess that makes next weeks pick a little easier now doesn't it?

Minnesota @ Wisconsin

This is another one I'm almost nervous to pick.  For most of the season, Minnesota has looked pretty impressive.  Last week they looked pretty weak.  So, was that because Michigan is turning things around or because Minnesota is experiencing some kind of meltdown?  They need to figure that out and quickly.  Wisconsin is getting back to being Wisconsin and they're going to play tough football.  What's more, Wisconsin needs this win to get a bowl game.  No matter what they do to Cal Poly next week, without this one, there's no 13th game.

What I'd do if I was Minnesota's...

OC:  Wisconsin's going to try to punch you in the mouth.  That's their style.  So don't be there when the punch comes in.  Adam Weber needs to be quick with his release and constantly moving around the pocket.  The line is just flat-out going to have to be tough.  Wisconsin's D-Line is pretty decent, but Eskridge did a pretty decent job last week, so give him another shot.  Don't send him over tackle much though.  Bounce him around a little.  The sweep seems to have gone out of fashion in the Big Ten, but it still has a place.  Use it sparingly, but use it.  Make those big linemen move down the line, not just forward.  You might be able to wear them out enough to start getting good results as the game wears on.  Eskridge is going to have to be more consistent than your running game has been most of the year though. 

DC:  Hill and Clay lit up Indiana last week and are turning out to be a pretty solid tandem.  Gilreath is a monster who has to be contained.  You've got your work cut out for you.  The good news is, they didn't have that kind of productivity against real defenses and yours is real...or it used to be.  So what is it going to be?  Who are you?  That's what you have to ask yourself this week.  Who are you?  Are you the Golden Gophers that went 7-1 leading into November?  Or are you the Golden Gophers that are 0-2 in November?  Take it to Wisconsin and force them to prove they're for real.  Get physical at the line.  Make your tackles count for something.  Make them feel some pain and see if they're ready for a street fight.  They're not a finesse team and you can't make them into one.  You'll have to just slug it out, so get your guys ready for a brawl.

What I'd do if I was Wisconsin's...

OC:  Look, Minnesota has slipped their way to a bowl game on the backs of inferior competition.  No kidding.  For as good as they've looked all year, they really haven't beaten anybody.  So your job is to find out just how good their defense is.  Your line is solid and healthier than they've been for a while.  Make some holes and let Hill/Clay steamroll them.  Then, while they're trying to stack the box to contain your duo, turn Sherer loose with Gilreath as his primary target.  Just keep hitting them with the ol' one-two and wait for them to fold.  Most importantly, and I can't stress this enough, protect the ball!  No matter how much better your offense may be than their defense, turnovers will kill you.

DC:  Are you hungry for some Gopher meat?  Then go get it.  Minnesota's biggest offensive weapon is injured and likely won't be 100% for your game.  Not that you really need to have anything stacked in your favor, but it never hurts.  Get after Adam Weber.  With Eric Decker out, his options are slightly limited.  He'll find a few guys out there, but you can handle them.  Just keep the big play out of the equation and you'll win the war of attrition.  Punch them in the teeth and just keep punching. 

What will likely happen:  As much as I like the Minnesota story, the truth is, their victories have come against questionable to weak opponents.  A few weeks ago, Wisconsin would have fit into that category.  I don't think that's true anymore.  They're legitimately becoming a powerful team.  Both teams will learn a lot about themselves this week. 

Pick: Wisconsin 24 - Minnesota 20

Actual: Wisconsin 35 - Minnesota 32

I thought it would be close and it was.  Minnesota blew a 21-7 halftime lead to a Wisconsin team that's looking better and better.  I'll still give the Gophers props for hanging 32 points on the Badgers, however...

PJ Hill put up 117 yards and you can't let stuff like that happen if you want to win games.  No, 100+ yards rushing yards doesn't guarantee a win, but it sure doesn't help either.  I. Anderson had 6 catches for 114 yards.  That kind of production tells a big tale.  The run game obviously helped open up a pass game and the Badgers found the balance they needed to put 28 points on the board in the second half.  I'm more impressed with Wisconsin now than I have been at any point in the season.  They're still not the best team in the conference, but they're growing by leaps and bounds, and I pity Cal Poly for what they're liable to do to them next week.

Ohio State @ Illinois

I really hate the term "trap game", but sometimes it applies.  Ohio State has to be a little wary of that this week.  Usually it only applies to undefeated teams looking for a shot at the NCG, but I use it a little more liberally for any team that could be unexpectedly upset.  Illinois is no stranger to defeating the Buckeyes.  They've been in that territory before.  The difference this time is that Illinois isn't playing like the same Illinois that knocked off the Buckeyes before.  Far from it.  Juice Williams is making more mistakes and before he had support that he doesn't have now.  Sound like an easy Buckeye win?  Don't get too far ahead of yourself.  Illinois still has the tools to hurt you when you're not looking.

What I'd do if I was Ohio State's...

OC:  I'm not really sure I even need to say anything here, but I will.  Chris Wells is healthy and showing what he can do when he's healthy.  Pryor is setting the world on fire.  Illinois' defense really isn't that fantastic.  Have a good day!  Just be sure to protect the ball.  I hate to sound like a broken record, but my goodness at the number of games that change pace because of stupid turnovers. 

DC:  Contain Williams.  Period.  Last week he showed that he's perfectly capable of turning the ball over to you.  So, ask him to.  Okay, asking may not quite work.  Beat it out of him.  Don't give him anywhere to run and he'll eventually make a bad decision with his passes.  Your secondary is pretty good, so when he tries to force something that he shouldn't, pick six.  Or pick and let the offense get six.  Either way, it's all good.  Just keep pressure on him and you should be good to go.  He has no other options.  There's no one else on the Illini offense that's a real threat. 

What I'd do if I was Illinois'...

OC:  I just gave you a big key.  Find someone other than Juice Williams to help carry the offense.  You have to.  It's really, really important.  Everyone knows that when they face you they have to key on Juice.  He's getting shut down and it's frustrating him.  As long as he's bottled up with no outlet, he's going to continue to get frustrated and make bad decisions or turn the ball over.  You've got to find a combination somewhere.  Quick passes to the corners can loosen up the defense tremendously.  They don't have to be bombs.  Just get the ball moving downfield and the defense will have to back off a little.  That will open things up for Williams considerably.  It won't be easy against this defense, but you've got to find two or three receivers that can get open quickly and make the catch.  They don't have to go far after that.  Just get the ball in their hands and move the chains.

DC:  Wells is obviously a threat you have to contain.  That won't be easy.  He seems hell bent on proving he's back to 100%.  Your line is going to have to stay in their lanes and not get pushed around.  Also, make sure your tackles are textbook perfect.  He's not easy to bring down and arm tackles won't do it.  You're going to have to get nasty and make sure you get pads on people.  After saying all of that, don't forget about Terrell Pryor.  He'll burn you.  Bring some pressure occasionally.  Your defensive line is pretty decent, so keep them getting off their blocks and occasionally bring a blitz in.  Most importantly, when OSU gets to the red zone, lock down.  It's truly a mental thing more than a physical one.  When you're guys feel the endzone nipping at their heels, they have to flip a switch and just keeping thinking "lock down".  If you can hold the Buckeyes to field goals rather than touchdowns, you have a chance to pull off the upset.  Besides, nothing gets the home crowd fired up like a goal line stand.

What will likely happen:  I've worried fingernails off thinking about this game.  Everything within me says OSU should win this in a walkaway.  Everything, that is, except this nagging little voice in my mind that says OSU's ripe for a picking.  They're at a place in their schedule where they could be thinking they'll cruise out of the season and root for MSU to upset PSU so they can go to the Rose Bowl.  Thinking like that can burn you, and I really think Illinois is going to be fired up for this game. 

Pick: Illinois 23 - Ohio State 20 OT

Actual: Ohio State 30 - Illinois 20

Several people (including seabass, who obviously knows his stuff) said that this year's Illinois was not the same as last year's Illinois and it would make all the difference.  Well, they were obviously right and I was obviously wrong.  Juice Williams just seemed to have the formula that befuddled Ohio State in the past and I had a sneaking suspicion it would work again.  Alas, the Buckeyes had other ideas.  And Illinois had turnovers.  Wells did his job and did it well, as did Pryor, and the Illini defense just couldn't hold them in check.  This win puts OSU one step closer to the Rose Bowl, but their ultimate fate still awaits the outcome of the game at Happy Valley next week.

Indiana @ Penn State

I'm reluctant to really even say anything about this game.  This is, by far, the most cut and dry game of the week.  Indiana hasn't been able to beat anyone in the Big Ten except Northwestern and Penn State has beaten everyone in the Big Ten except Iowa.  I just don't see Indiana suddenly becoming good enough to knock off a team as powerful as the Nittany Lions.

What I'd do if I was Indiana's...

OC:  PSU's defense is going to bring a lot of pressure from their down linemen.  They're pretty darn good.  You're going to have to work the spread-O and work it well.  Three step drop, pass.  As quickly as it took for you to read that is how quickly it's going to have to happen.  PSU's defense hasn't allowed too many people to find success running against them, so you're probably going to have to use the pass to set up the run.  Here's a quick formula:  slant right, out left, TE over the middle, slant left, cross right, TE short right, HB screen.  Keep changing directions and receivers frequently so they have no one to key on.  Keep it very quick and relatively short.  If you find success there, their defense will have to keep their LB's back to help with the pass coverage.  That could open up a lane or two for a running game to slowly develop.  Oh yeah, don't forget that handy stop 'n' go pattern.  Everybody gets burned by that from time to time.  Just don't overdo it.

DC:  PSU has a ton of tools they can use and they like to use every one of them.  The list of people who carry the ball for them in any given game is as long as the passenger list on the Titanic.  Obviously they like to mix things up and they seem to like running the end around.  You're probably not going to get a ton of pressure with the down linemen, but they do have to hold their ground.  You can't afford to have your LB's plugging holes that should be plugged by linemen.  They're going to be busy enough chasing down the multitude of potential ball carriers.  Try not to get into a position where your LB's are having to do a lot of pass coverage.  Keep them moving around the line and get into the backfield.  Don't think of it so much as blitzing as sliding down the line, then picking a hole to get through so you can disrupt the play.  Oh...that's a blitz?  Okay....blitz.  Just make sure you've got someone in position who can stop a run before it gets too far away from you.

What I'd do if I was Penn State's...

OC:  Pull out all the stops.  As I've said before, it's not that Indiana's defense is anything that would scare me, but you have two agendas this week.  1) win.  2) win BIG.  It's an unfortunate part of this game, but if you want to crawl a little higher in the ranks, this has to be completely embarrasing for the Hoosiers.  A close win, and you drop in the polls.  Sorry, but it's true.  Besides, a little extra practice doesn't hurt.  You have MSU coming up and you just might need some of those plays.  Open up the playbook now and treat this as a "must win" practice against a tougher practice squad than the one you normally have.  Well...they might be tougher.  Keep working on balance.  Run, pass, pass, run, mix-and-match, trick plays, you name it.  Go crazy.

DC:  Indiana's offense is a spread type offense, but they just don't have a ton of weapons at their disposal this year.  Beat them at the line and you'll have them befuddled all day.  The same truth holds here.  You need this win big.  Go head-hunting.  If you could hold their running game to under 50 yards, that's impressive.  If you can hold them to under 200 yards of total offense, that's impressive.  Stay hungry and be impressive.

What will likely happen:  This would be a turning point victory for Indiana.  The problem is, they're nowhere near being in position to get a turnaround win, especially against this Nittany Lion team.  This one should be on the highlight reels for total destruction.

Pick: Penn State 52 - Indiana 9

Actual: Penn State 34 - Indiana 7

Well, not much to say here, huh?  Actually, to Indiana's credit, they kept it very close in the first half.  PSU came out a little flat and only managed 10 points to the Hoosiers 7.  I'm sure they were thinking of "pulling an Iowa" and sneaking one past a sleeping Lion team.  When you're Indiana, this year, you're not going to sneak one past a team like Penn State.  The Nittany Lions woke up at halftime and finally got things rolling. 

Michigan State - BYE  Enjoy your week off!  Next week you'll likely know your fate.

I'm sure MSU fans weren't too happy about the OSU/ILL outcome.  Sorry folks, I picked in your favor.  I'm not so sure about this coming week...

My Game of the Week

Purdue @ Iowa

Saturday will be Senior Day for the U of I.  It'll be sad to see some great players suiting up for the final time to play at Kinnick Stadium.  Oh yeah, I'm supposed to talk about the game itself.  Okay, this one shouldn't be much better than the PSU/Indiana game.  Purdue's offense is their strong suit, if there is such a thing for Purdue.  That strong suit is facing Iowa's strong suit...their defense.  Iowa just doesn't let people score a lot of points against them.  They take away the big play and force you to play a slow, grinding game.  That's not Purdue's style.  Purdue's defense is just awful 4/5 of the time.  That doesn't bode well when you're facing a Heisman contending running back that just put 117 yards up against Penn State.  On the other hand, if Iowa gets lazy thinking about their finale against Minnesota, they could get shocked.  I doubt it though.

What I'd do if I was Purdue's...

OC:  For weeks I've been telling people to work the short-mid pass.  They've been listening too.  Did you see Penn State work a drive that was, like, 17 plays and took 9 minutes?  Yeah, it was crazy.  The thing I forgot to tell everyone was that once you get down to the Iowa 20...that doesn't work anymore.  They shut the door on you.  So your job is to figure out what no one else has figured out how to do this year.  You have to drop the long ball on them.  Yes, Illinois did it once, but that was a blown coverage play.  That doesn't happen every down, so you have to figure something else out.  Since Iowa is perfectly fine giving you 7 or 8 yards all the way down the field until you run out of room, you've got to coax them in some other way.  If your receivers are uber quick, you might stand a chance.  Throw the quick strike over top of the defense and let speed work in your favor.  I'm not sure they're quick enough, but if it works once or twice, you'll start to see a change in the way they attack you.  It might open up something else.  It probably won't be the run game though.  Kory Sheets can really try, but he just won't put up big numbers.  Ask Javon Ringer.  It's not that easy.  Get those LB's to drop a little deeper, though, and he might find some success.

DC:  The same thing I've said before holds true.  Get at Ricki Stanzi.  Last week he really grew up a lot.  In the second half of that game, he took control of the offense and led them downfield with a fair amount of consistency against a very tough PSU defense.  Your D is usually pretty weak, but it did have a couple of good games this year.  Go back to the tape and find out what you did there.  If you get pressure on Stanzi, you might be able to make him give you the ball.  Getting him to scramble isn't a good thing though.  He's much more accurate on the run than he is in the pocket.  Work on caging him in.  You can try to cage in Shonn Greene too, but here's a hint: your tacklers better be prepared to take a hit rather than give one.  He's a running back that hits back.  Catch him in the backfield though, and you might be able to get to him before he gets a full head of steam.  That's easier said than done, but it's not impossible. 

What I'd do if I was Iowa's...

OC:  Ken, I'm proud of you.  You've been getting the plays in with plenty of time and you've stopped going straight to the play action plays.  Keep it up.  Obviously you have a mega weapon in Shonn Greene, so use him to set up everything else.  Once he's hit them in the mouth a few times, turn Ricki loose.  DJK has come back around in the offense and now gives Stanzi three big targets he can float between.  Work on using all three.  Purdue's defense isn't solid enough to have to worry about DJK, Andy Brodell and Brandon Myers.  That's just too much for them this year.  So throw everything at them but the kitchen sink.  Throw it too, if you think it'll work.  You won't need it though.  Between those three and Greene, you've got more than enough weapons to pick the Boilermakers apart.

DC:  Keep your secondary in check.  Everyone else has figured out that you'll give them the short stuff and no doubt Purdue knows it too.  The thing is, everyone also knows that they'll need some help when they get to the red zone and Purdue doesn't have the talent for that.  Their best bet is to burn you on the edges and take the ball deep.  It could be a career day for you safeties...or it could be a nightmare.  Be prepared to be tested deep.  I'm not sure they'll have time for that though.  Mitch King is stepping up bigger and bigger every single week.  He's even taken Matt Kroul out of a lot of discussion and that's pretty darned impressive.  Keep him hungry this week and shooting for a chance to improve his sack stats.  Kory Sheets will try to put some yards on you, but I think Edds and Angerer can keep him in check.  If he thinks he's going to run over tackle...yeah, that won't be a good route for him.  He just doesn't have the support up front that he needs against your line -  as long as the line continues to do its job.  Don't let anyone fall asleep on the job this week! 

What will likely happen:  I'm almost scared to make this pick.  It's one of those situations where you think you've got it locked down: a no-brainer.  Then someone falls asleep at the wheel and everything goes south quickly.  Still, I think Iowa will be pumped up to finish the season strong, and Kinnick is a tough place for people to come play.

Pick: Iowa 31 - Purdue 17

Actual: Iowa 22 - Purdue 17

You want to talk about frustrating?  I was back in Iowa, taking my son to ChuckE Cheese for his birthday and I was less than a mile from Kinnick Stadium...listening to the Hawkeye game on satellite radio.  I traveled over 900 miles just to get to Iowa, was less than a mile from the game and still had to hear it on the radio...  It's all good though.  Watching my son's face as he raced from game to game at ChuckE Cheese made it all worth it.  There'll be other football games.  There'll never be another moment quite like that one.

Anyway, what the hell is going on with Trent Mossbrucker?  I know, he's only a freshman, so I won't be too hard on him, but missing two PAT's in a row is hard to swallow.  Those two points could have cost Iowa very dearly as Purdue drove down inside the Iowa 30 with just seconds left on the clock. 

In Purdue's defense, they had two TD's called back on penalties in the first half.  Had they played a little cleaner ball, Iowa could have been embarrased just a week after their biggest win.  The game ultimately came down to who succeeded on the ground and that was Iowa's domain.  Shonn Greene made another Heisman statement putting up 211 yards on 30 carries.  Jewell Hampton had 30 yards on just 3 carries as well, and added a TD.  Purdue's defense just couldn't handle Iowa's rush attack.  With stats like those, however, it never should have been this close.  Iowa played sloppy and ugly, but got the win and ultimately, that's all that matters.  At 7-4, they're virtually locked for a bowl game now, regardless of what happens at Minnesota next week. 

I can testify that it was colder than a well digger's behind in Iowa this last weekend.  The wind was brutal.  I was actually kind of glad I couldn't afford tickets to the game.  Chuck E Cheese was a helluva lot warmer than sitting in the stands at Kinnick would have been.

Okay folks.  That's it from here.  Pick them apart and let me know what you think. 

Well, I went 3-2 this week.  I wasn't completely sold on my own pick for the Illinois/OSU game, but felt pretty comfortable with the Michigan pick.  Once again, the Wolverines burnt me.  Such is life, this late in the Big Ten season. 

Here's a quick look at the conference standings and bowl eligibility:

PENN STATE (10-1) overall (6-1) Big Ten:  Fast track to Rose Bowl.  Bowl locked.

OHIO STATE (9-2) overall (6-1) Big Ten: in hunt for Rose Bowl if MSU beats PSU next week.  Bowl locked.

MICHIGAN STATE (9-2) overall (6-1) Big Ten: in hunt for Rose Bowl if Mich beats OSU next week and they beat PSU.  Bowl locked.

NORTHWESTERN (8-3) overall (4-3) Big Ten: Bowl locked.

IOWA (7-4) overall (4-3) Big Ten: Bowl locked.

MINNESOTA (7-4) overal (3-4) Big Ten: Bowl locked.

ILLINOIS (5-6) overall (3-4) Big Ten: Bowl possible, but unlikely.

WISCONSIN (6-5) overall (3-5) Big Ten: Bowl probable.

MICHIGAN (3-8) overall (2-5) Big Ten: No Bowl.

PURDUE (3-8) overall (1-6) Big Ten: No Bowl.

INDIANA (3-8) overall (1-6) Big Ten: No Bowl.

So far the Big Ten has 6 teams that are virtually a lock to get a bowl game, 1 more that is eligible and will likely secure one and 1 more that can become eligible next week for a total of 8 teams that could be in bowl games this December/January.

I'll be back tomorrow night to put up my First Look for the final week of the Big Ten season.  Then I'll return Tuesday to put up my picks.  When the bowl picture is set, I'll lay them all out and we'll see who the Big Ten gets paired up with in the post season.

If you haven't already, be sure to stop by my buddies' blogs and check out their picks:

SEABASS - the original Big Ten Blogger

PSPKNINE - the temporary Hawk

Good luck and Happy Bowl Hunting!