The whipping boys of college football are the final team of my series on Big Ten schedules. Yes, Ohio State has come up short in their last few games against top rated opponents. Let's be a little fair here, though folks. How many other teams fared as well as the Buckeyes did against Texas? How many other teams suffered the very same fate against USC? Say what you want about these Buckeyes, but they could've beaten better than 90% of the rest of the nation the last couple of years.
So, if you're Ohio State, what do you do to shut your detractors up? Obviously, the answer is that you've got to beat the big teams. They were very close to winning the Fiesta Bowl, but close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades. This year, they've got to come out and prove that they are the undisputed champion of the Big Ten, not just just a co-Champion that snuck in on a technicality. Technically, they lost to Penn State, but technically they had the same conference record. There can be no question this year.
Ohio State is the kind of team that needs a pretty tough schedule if they're going to salvage any respect around the country. Then, they've got to win.
The Schedule
September 5 - vs Navy - The Midshipmen went 8-5 last year and were tops among the Independents. I like this game. No, it's not a Top 25 opponent, but at least it's not a FCS team, or some 3-win team from the Sunbelt. This is, at least, a respectable team and a better way to start the season than what a lot of their peers are doing.
September 12 - vs USC - This is the game that will decide how the Buckeyes will be perceived all year long. The Trojans are still considered a powerhouse team. Beat them and you've automatically gained a little respect. Lose and it won't be until January that they'll get another chance to really improve on their image.
September 19 - @ Toledo - Here's that 3-9 team I was talking about, only Toledo's from the MAC West, not the Sunbelt. Still, they were only 2-6 in conference play. This won't do anything to help Ohio State's cause. It'll just add a mark in the "win" column.
September 26 - vs Illinois - This could be a really interesting game. Illinois could have an offense that could go punch-for-punch with the Buckeyes. Maybe. Will their defense be able to do the same? Maybe. This isn't a team the Buckeyes will want to take lightly...no maybe about it.
October 3 - @ Indiana - Assuming Illinois really is as good as I think they could be, and that Juice Williams isn't already washed up, this is the second "breather" in five games. It's a good one to have on the road, since they probably should win it at either place.
October 17 - @ Purdue - The Buckeyes are hitting the light stretch of their schedule. This is the time to work on anything they may still be missing before the real conference fight comes up.
October 24 - vs Minnesota - ditto what I said above. Not that I'm trying to be disrespectful to Purdue or Minnesota, but I think both teams have too much rebuilding to do before they'll be ready to compete at OSU's level.
October 31 - vs New Mexico State - Another 3-9 team (1-7 in WAC). I'm really disappointed in this game. A team like OSU knows four to five years in advance what they're team should look like. They should have known they'd be fairly strong. Schedule tougher opponents than this.
November 7 - @ Penn State - I hope the Buckeyes didn't fall asleep during the month of October, because they're going to need to be fully focused for this one. They're on the road against the 2008 Big Ten Champions and they haven't had a lot of stiff competition lately to prepare for it.
November 14 - vs Iowa - If Ohio State beats Penn State, then this is a huge trap game. Iowa won't be bad and the Buckeyes just might have it in their heads that they're cruising towards an undisputed conference championship. On the other hand, if PSU prevails in Happy Valley, then the Buckeyes will be focused and furious when they host the Hawkeyes. One thing I believe completely is that they'd better not take this game too lightly. Iowa will be ready for it.
November 21 - @ Michigan - This has the potential to be like the rivalry of old. I doubt very much that the Wolverines will be in the conference title hunt just yet, but they could be sufficiently improved to give the Buckeyes a run for their money. I would go so far as to say that if Michigan faced ten opponents of OSU's talent, they'd lose to nine of them, but this is the Buckeyes. This is their conference rival, and this could be for a decent bowl berth. It could be real interesting.
Okay...so what
This isn't a terrible schedule by any stretch. Obviously, the Buckeyes can't help what the talent level is within the conference. What they can help, to an extent, is what kinds of teams they play out of conference. I see some good and I see some bad where that's concerned.
I like the game against Navy. The MIdshipmen may not be the same caliber as USC, but at least they're a team with a winning record. I continue to applaud the Buckeyes for their deal with USC. That's the kind of match that adds to your strength of schedule. Of course, it helps if you win it, or at least keep it close.
I don't like Toledo and I hate New Mexico State being on the schedule. These teams aren't going to do anything to help the Buckeyes. The only good thing is that neither of them are FCS teams. That's about all that can be said about them from this standpoint.
I like the Illinois game at home. Illinois could be just dangerous enough to derail the Buckeye season before it even really gets going. I also like Penn State on the road and Iowa at home. The PSU game could easily be for the conference title and Iowa could be a surprise upset if OSU's not careful. Of course the Michigan game at the end of the season is tradition and I wouldn't have it any other way. This year, it could be exciting again.
Besides having Toledo and NMS on the schedule, I don't like the entire month of October. Those are all games the Buckeyes should win. In fairness, there's a chance Wisconsin could step up and be a threat, but I don't see any of the others being in the same league as Ohio State this year. That doesn't do much to prep the Buckeyes for the Penn State match. In fact, it's far too easy to become complacent.
All-in-all, this is the toughest schedule in the Big Ten, thanks almost entirely to the September 12th game against USC. Without that date, this is a pretty mediocre schedule. No, the Buckeyes aren't facing any FCS teams, but Toledo and NMS may as well be for a team like the Buckeyes. They miss MIchigan State and Northwestern - two teams who could at least push them, if not threaten to knock them off. They've got all the toughest conference games at home, except the PSU game.
Way too early prediction
I could sum the whole thing up in two sentences, but what fun is that?
Navy will be an interesting game. They might even be able to keep it close with the Buckeyes for a half. In the end, Ohio State will win it fairly handily. If they don't, you might as well ignore the rest of these predictions.
I'm hoping the game against Southern Cal will be much better than last year. Certainly, this will be a different Buckeye team facing them. Pryor should be turned loose this year to run or pass (more run than pass, most likely). There won't be any Wells this year, but there wasn't for last year's game either. I don't know who will be carrying the rushing load yet, but I think it will be a totally different look and one that's more suited for Trojan football. Still, I think USC will prevail in the end. I'd like to be wrong about that, but I don't think I am.
Toledo should be a walk in the park. So, OSU will be 2-1 when they start conference play, and probably ranked in the Top 25.
Illinois is a tough call. So far, what I'm seeing come out of Champaign, they believe they've got a better system built around Williams with a supporting cast that can help take some pressure off him. They also seem to think that their defense will be much improved. Will it be enough? It might be, but I've already called this one for Ohio State and I'm not inclined to change it.
Indiana shouldn't provide too much challenge for the Buckeyes.
Wisconsin is a wildcard. They could be better this year; maybe even much better. Or they could be worse. It's just hard to guess. I'm betting on the Buckeyes,
Purdue shouldn't be much trouble. Neither should Minnesota, nor Mexico State be. So, the Buckeyes should be 8-1 overall, 5-0 in the Big Ten when they face off with the Nittany Lions of Penn State.
I've already chosen Ohio State to win this one. The thing is, I've gone back and forth with that choice ever since. After giving OSU's schedule a closer look, I've thought many times that they might not be in the right frame of mind for this game, or that they might build up a little "rust" over the month leading up to it. Then again, PSU won last year at the Horseshoe, this could be a perfect time for them to reverse that by winning in Beaver Stadium. Of course, if I were to change my mind and give this to Penn State, I'd have to pick someone else to beat the Lions because I don't see them going undefeated. So, out of sheer laziness I'll leave this pick alone and keep it with the Buckeyes.
Iowa could be an interesting game. The Hawkeyes aren't generally thought of as being as tough as the Buckeyes. Actually, Iowa has only beaten OSU like three times in the last fifty years. That might be a bit of an exageration, I'm not looking at their stats right at the moment, but OSU has definitely had Iowa's number time and again. Still, as I said above, if OSU comes into this one thinking they've already passed their toughest test, they could be shocked. As much as I really want to call this in favor of the Hawkeyes, I can't. Ohio State will win
That leaves Michigan. The pieces are falling into place for Michigan to become the team Rich Rodriguez wanted it to be when he took the job. I'm not sure enough of his players are in place to completely transform the Wolverines, yet, but they're getting there. They should be sufficiently transformed to at least make this an interesting game, but in the end, the Buckeyes will prevail.
Final Talley: The Buckeyes will be 11-1 overall and undefeated in the Big Ten. That's my story, and I'm stickin' to it....until the season starts, anyway. They'll go to the Rose Bowl unless, by some major miracle, they make it to the National Championship. I don't see a one-loss Buckeye team playing for the big title though.
That's it for my look at the Big Ten schedules, and a very early prediction of their records. Thanks to all who have commented on my posts. I'll be back before long with more looks at these teams after the dust has settled on spring games. Until then, here's to a good Big Ten 2009 season.
Wow...what the heck happened to Fox??? I don't know if I like this or not. Everything I did last year has pretty well been wiped out. The stories are there, but all the comments are gone, as are all the tags. Hmmm...hope you know what you've done FoxSports....
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Well at least they finally started posting links to blogs from team sites again.
DezzNutzI lost all my favorites (blogs) as well as comments et al.
06:34 PM EST