Iowa

Well, there's no secret that I've been waiting anxiously to write this article.  Hawkeye fans are frothing at the mouth for this season to kick off.  They know how oh-so-close Iowa really was to greatness last season.  The four games they lost were by a total of 12 points....12....points.  In most of those cases, just one or two plays could be pinpointed as the ones that ruined a perfectly good win.  Still, the Hawkeyes went to Florida and destroyed South Carolina in their bowl game and made a few people sit up and take notice along the way.

Coming into this year, I've been reading over and over again about how Iowa will be hurt by the loss of Shonn Greene to the pros.  In my opinion, Shonn Greene was one of the best backs to ever donn the black and gold; possibly the best.  But don't let that make you think Iowa's due for a big slide.  Greene's presence carried an offense that needed to gel and find some consistency.  This year, I believe they'll have that consistency, and just in case they don't, they still have Jewel Hampton, who had an impressive 5.1 yards per carry in substitution for Greene.  And, though the defense is missing a couple of key men up front, they're getting back a ton of talent in the linebacking corps and secondary.  Plus, the D-line is rarely a big issue for Iowa.  When one leaves, another steps in.  That's just the way Norm Parker rolls. 

Iowa needs a schedule that will help reflect their ability.  There won't be nearly the number of turnovers to haunt them this year.  The rookie mistakes should be over with.  Now they need a schedule that will offer enough tough dates to gain them some respect, and enough named opponents to draw some attention around the nation.

The Schedule

September 5 - vs Northern Iowa - Normally, I'd hate the Hawkeyes playing a FCS team at any point in the season.  This one I like.  First, because UNI made the semi-finals in the championship tournament last season, so they're pretty good as far as FCS teams go.  Second, I like the idea of getting a little more money and attention being thrown to UNI.  They're a good program, and they deserve some love. 

September 12 - @ Iowa State - The Cyclones could be much improved this year.  I doubt it, but they could be.  It really doesn't matter if they are or not.  Every time the 'Clones and the Hawks get together, it's a pretty good show.  The home team has been the winner more often of late than not.  I don't like that for the Hawks, but this is definitely going to be a tough opponent for them - as always.

September 19 - vs Arizona - I love this game.  LOVE it.  'Zona went 8-5 last year and Coach Mike Stoops thinks their defense will be better than last year.  They appear to have several choices for their new signal caller, and all are getting good reviews so far.  I don't know that the Wildcats will be a ranked opponent when the Hawkeyes face them, but they should be good enough for people to take notice.  I like this being at Kinnick, though.

September 26 - @ Penn State - Welcome to the start of the Big Ten season!  PSU fans have been looking forward to this date for a while now.  The Hawkeyes single-handedly ruined any hope they had at playing for a National Championship, and they haven't forgotten it.  They may not hold a grudge, but they still want a little payback, and this one's in Happy Valley.  Just remember...Iowa's beaten Penn State 7 of the last 9 years.  Hmmm...

October 3 - vs Arkansas State - The Indians were 6-6 last season, 3-4 in the Sun Belt.  I don't know what they have in the works for this year, but this should be a nice recover weak for the Hawks.  That's assuming they need to recover.  It should be a nice home win...how 'bout that?

October 10 - vs Michigan - Iowa has only managed to beat Michigan three times in the last fifteen times they've faced one another.  Of those wins, only one of them came at home.  However, the Hawkeyes haven't faced the Wolverines since 2006, and this is most definitely not the same Wolverine team.  Will they be better?  I think yes.  Just how much better, is always the question.  I like that this one's at home.  It could be a very exciting game.

October 17 - @ Wisconsin - The Badgers are another of those monsters that could rear their ugly head this season and wreak havoc on the best laid plans.  If Iowa gets past Michigan, this could be a trap game.  I like it.  On the other hand, Wisconsin could just be bad again this year, in which case it really shouldn't matter. 

October 24 - @ Michigan State - Tough road game, but a respectable one.  The Spartans should be having a pretty decent season, and may be ranked.  For a team like Iowa, I like ranked opponents, I don't care whether they're on the road or at home.  If the Hawks want to gain respect around the nation, they've got to beat the tough teams, even on the road.

October 31 - vs Indiana - I've said in practically every article that Indiana will be improved, just not enough.  It's the case again here.  Iowa's going to be pretty decent and it'll be at Kinnick. 

November 7 - vs Northwestern - This one is another great one.  Iowa needs a little revenge for last year.  They should have beaten the 'Cats.  They need to make it clear that they should have beaten them.  This time, its in Iowa's house, and Iowa doesn't let many people beat them in their house (only twice in their last 10 home games and three times since the start of 2007). 

November 14 - @ Ohio State - It kind of stinks that Iowa has to play both Penn State and Ohio State on the road, but it is what it is.  Like I said before, if you want the respect, you've got to win the tough games, even on the road.  This could potentially be for Big Ten supremecy, or it could simply be to decide who goes to what bowl.  It could be an opportunity for the Hawks to knock another Big Ten team out of the National Title hunt. 

November 21 - vs Minnesota - Gopher fans, I'll spare you another reminder of last year's game.  Iowa has had Minnesota's number 7 of the last 8 years by an average score of 39-22.  I'm not sure that Minnesota will be in any position to really challenge that history.  It's a rivalry game, though, and there have been some fantastic games between these two squads. 

Okay...so what?

I like this schedule.  No, I really like this schedule.  It might be a little better if they had a couple more ranked opponents on the docket, but it's not bad.  Northern Iowa is a "weak" opponent, but not as weak as some might think.  They'll be tough enough to give Iowa an honest test, but shouldn't be tough enough to knock the Hawks off.  The Cyclones are nearly always a tough opponent.  Plus, it's tradition, and a tradition you just don't mess with.  There's a long-shot chance that Arizona could be ranked, depending on what they do in the first two weeks and what happens around the nation.  It's highly unlikely, but not impossible.  Either way, that should be a good game against an opponent people know well.  It offers exposure, and that could be a very good thing.

The second quarter is very nice with a road game at Penn State that should be very tough, and home dates against Arkansas State and Michigan.  While ASU may not be too tough, the Michigan date should be tough enough to make Iowa earn it. 

The Hawk's third quarter is very similar.  Wisconsin could be easy, or could be tough.  It's on the road which adds an another element to the game.  Michigan State will certainly be tough and it's also on the road.  Then, the Hawks get to come back home to face an Indiana team they should be able to beat handily. 

The fourth quarter is best, in my book.  Iowa gets a revenge game against Northwestern, at home, then travel to Ohio State to take on the Buckeyes.  No one should consider that to be easy for either team at this point.  Finally, they get their "rivalry" game against Minnesota in front of the home crowd. 

All-in-all, the season offers some new faces that the Hawks haven't seen in a while (Arizona, Arkansas State and Northern Iowa), some really tough opponents, some nasty road dates, and some nice, very winnable games at home.  It'll give Iowa plenty of opportunity to gain some respect and put together a strong season.

Way too early prediction

Would anyone blame me if I made some homer picks?  You would?  Okay, I'll try to be fair.

Northern Iowa shouldn't be too much trouble for Iowa.  I see that game being close for maybe the first half.  I have a lot of respect for the Panthers, but the Hawks should be head-and-shoulders better than them, and will pull away fairly early.  Iowa State might pose some problems.  You never really know what to expect when the Hawks and Cyclones tangle.  Still, even though this one's in Ames, I think the Hawks are just better than the 'Clones this year and will keep the Cy/Hawk Trophy in Iowa City.  Arizona is a wildcard in my opinion.  They run the spread offense, but will still be breaking in some new players; particularly a new quarterback.  Plus, Iowa didn't do too badly against the spread-O's they faced last year.  These Wildcats may give the Hawks quite a test, but I think Iowa brings home another win.  That will make them 3-0 when they travel to Happy Valley.

I mentioned above that Iowa has had pretty good success against JoePa's Lions.  There's just something about the Hawks that thwarts PSU.  I don't know for certain what it is, but I like it.  However, we can't get too comfortable with history.  The Hawks will definitely have to work their tail feathers off to beat Penn State.  As much as I hate to, I'm going to call this one in favor of Penn State....and I really hate to.

Arkansas State should be a win.

Michigan is going to be an intersting opponent.  I already gave this one to the Hawks, and I stand by that.  I do think this will be a pretty exciting game, though.  I don't think Iowa will pull it out until late in the 4th quarter.  That'll make Iowa 5-1 overall, 1-1 in the Big Ten.

Next is Wisconsin.  It's entirely possible that Wisconsin will figure out what caused their inability to tackle and the inconsistency of their offense last year and do something about it.  Being in Madison certainly helps their cause.  Still, I think Iowa gets this one.  Coach Ferentz knows how Bielema thinks, and I think he'll outsmart him on this one.

The showdown at Michigan State could be a really exciting one too.  It should be.  I think Sparty will be pretty tough again this year and will be looking for a Rose Bowl bid.  Iowa will give them all they can handle.  They won't have just one man to key on (Shonn Greene) this year, and they'll be missing their own rushing dynamo (Javon Ringer).  Last year's game was one of those narrow losses for Iowa.  It'll be extremely tough, but I like Iowa's new offense to take this one. 

Indiana just isn't going to be up to par, yet.  I stress yet.  I do think they're going to be tough enought to cause some headaches in just another year or two.  I think, when Iowa takes their pads off after this game they'll be 8-1 overall, 4-1 in the Big Ten.

Northwestern brings a whole new challenge.  They'll be quick and their defense will be improved over last year.  Iowa, on the other hand, will be very confident after knocking off MSU and following that up with a big win over Indiana.  Actually, I think they'll be too confident.  I think the Wildcats of Northwestern will come in and humble Iowa a little in their home stadium.  In my Northwestern piece, I picked Iowa to win.  I'm changing my mind.  This one goes to the Wildcats.

The Ohio State game should be interesting.  Iowa hasn't had a lot of luck where the Buckeyes are concerned.  OSU has had some fantastic recruiting classes and will undoubtedly be very near the team they were a year ago, if not better.  There will be good reason for Iowa to show up with guns blazing for this one though.  IF Ohio State is able to get past Penn State in Happy Valley the week before this game, they'll have, not only the inside track to the Rose Bowl, but potentially could still be in National Title talks.  I'm not certain I'll pick them to get past USC early in the season, but, as last year showed, it may not matter.  That means Iowa can come to town and try to play spoiler.  Unfortunately, I don't think that'll happen.  Iowa will be good, but I don't think they're OSU good yet.  Still, they could make a pretty good showing of it.  It would be better for them if this was at home, but even then, I'm not sure they could get the win.

Last comes the ol' rivalry with Minnesota.  The last few years, Iowa's had the upper hand.  Last year's game was a hard-hitting affair - just what you want in a rivalry game.  Unfortunately for Minnesota, the scores just weren't coming their way.  They've got some rebuilding to do, and I struggle to think they'll be much improved this year.  I think next year is more likely.  Iowa will get this win at home to close out their season. 

Final Tally:  Iowa will go 9-3 overall and 5-3 in the Big Ten.  I'd like to say that Iowa will have a 10 win season, but I can't; at least not in the regular season.  With OSU, PSU and MSU all on the road, it's easy to think they could get two losses right there.  Iowa should've beaten both MSU and Northwestern last year, but didn't.  I can see them getting revenge on one of those teams, but I'm not so convinced that they'll get it on both of them.  Still, with a 9-win season, the Hawks will get another January bowl date.  Maybe this time they'll get an opponent worthy of facing off against them.

Next up....Michigan State

 

By the way, I got my information on Iowa's history from:  http://www.gazetteonline.com/section/iowafootballhistory