It's rivalry week across the country.  I never quite understood why this was rivalry week.  Aren't there some other pretty good rivalries that go on throughout the year?  How about Michigan/Michigan State?  Iowa/Iowa State (granted ISU isn't in the Big Ten, but it's still and in-state rivalry)?  Does Wisconsin have no rivalry?  They're not playing anyone in the conference this week, and I dare say that Cal Poly is not a real rival of the Badgers. 

Anyway, you didn't come to First Look to read me question the validity of Rivalry Week.  You came to hear about the games (or I hope you did, anyway)!  Before I get into them, I'll repost the conference standings so you can see what's on the line for the teams in the Big Ten this week.  As it now sits we have 6 teams locked for a bowl game, one that should lock this week and one more that can become eligible.  Here's the layout:

PENN STATE (10-1) overall (6-1) Big Ten:  Fast track to Rose Bowl.  Win and they're in.  Locked for a Bowl.

OHIO STATE (9-2) overall (6-1) Big Ten: in hunt for Rose Bowl if MSU beats PSU next week and OSU beats Michigan.  Locked for a Bowl.

MICHIGAN STATE (9-2) overall (6-1) Big Ten: in hunt for Rose Bowl if Mich beats OSU next week and they beat PSU.  Locked for a Bowl.

NORTHWESTERN (8-3) overall (4-3) Big Ten: Locked for a Bowl.

IOWA (7-4) overall (4-3) Big Ten: Locked for a Bowl.

MINNESOTA (7-4) overal (3-4) Big Ten: Locked for a Bowl.

ILLINOIS (5-6) overall (3-4) Big Ten: Bowl possible, but unlikely.

WISCONSIN (6-5) overall (3-5) Big Ten: Bowl probable.

MICHIGAN (3-8) overall (2-5) Big Ten: As the Soup Nazi would say: No Bowl for You!

PURDUE (3-8) overall (1-6) Big Ten: No Bowl for You!

INDIANA (3-8) overall (1-6) Big Ten: No Bowl for You!

That's where they stand now...so on to this week's games!

Indiana @ Purdue

There's something nearly as important on the line for both of these teams as a bowl: trying to stay off the bottom of the Big Ten ladder.  The winner can claim a minor moral victory, while the loser's only claim to fame will be that no one throws away a season better than they do!

Indiana held close to Penn State for half a game last weekend.  then typical Hoosier football happened and they got smoked.  This week they'll face an offense that can be effective when they're not busy shooting themselves in the foot.  The Hoosiers also get to face a defense that has been walked all over the entire season.  If they can put together some kind of defense this week, Indiana has a chance to tie the Mighty Michigan Wolverines...for second to worst in the conference.

Purdue, meanwhile, played Iowa fairly tough at Kinnick Stadium.  Despite getting completely run over by Shonn Greene (literally a couple of times), the Boilermakers found a way to hang in.  A couple of stupid penatlies negated a TD, not once, but twice in the second quarter.  Had they kept their heads about them, they might have made that game a whole lot tougher for the Hawkeyes.  Even so, they were one play away from victory.  If they can take positives from that close loss, they can easily find a way to knock off a very weak Indiana team.  Just a week ago I read a story, or blog, or something that said that Purdue's defense was solid while their offense has struggled.  I don't know, but when I see a defense that has allowed 281 points to be put up against them, while scoring 234, I'm not seeing a strong defense.  I'm also not seeing a terribly weak offense.  It's an inconsistenr offense, but not a terrible one. 

This game will actually be a defensive battle, but not the kind we're used to seeing.  It'll be a battle to see which defense will be able to make the critical stop when it matters.  It'll look more like an offensive shootout...but defense will be the key.

Illinois @ Northwestern

Illinois is coming off a tough loss at the hands of Ohio State and still find themselves one game shy of being bowl eligible.  I'm sure this isn't how the Zookster foresaw this season panning out.  That's what happens when you put all your eggs in one basket though.  Juice Williams is their first, last, and only real line of attack.  For teams with a solid defense, they've only to stop Williams to stall the Illini offense.  Sometimes that's easier said than done, but it's been done six times this season and if they're not careful, it could be seven.  This is a must-win for the Illini.  The chances of getting a bowl berth even after a win here are slim to none, but the chance of getting one without a win is zero.  Ending their season with a win over a 9 win Wildcat team might be enough to convince a bowl somewhere to invite the Illini to warmer weather.  Most of all, Williams and the Illini clan are fighting for a little pride.  They definitely don't want to go home with a losing record in, what was supposed to be, a big year.

Northwestern is badly injured.  Their rush attack is missing both Sutton and Conteh.  QB Kafka is likely out for the finale, though Bacher is back.  Bacher is the better QB, in my opinion, but Kafka's ability to run the ball helps offset the missing RB's.  NW is likely to be a one-dimensional football team on the offensive side of the board.  That won't be a good thing considering Illinois' pass defense isn't that shabby.  Still, this is a team that has earned 9 wins.  For Northwestern, that alone is a feat few saw coming.  They didn't get to this point by pure, dumb luck.  Their offense may be wounded, but it's not dead.  Their defense isn't exactly spectacular, but it may be sufficient, if it can figure out how to slow down Juice Williams.  Perhaps the biggest hinderence to a Wildcat win is the fact that they're locked for a decent bowl game.  They don't really need this win.  They can't win the conference.  They definitely can't play for the national title.  There's just nothing left to really fight for, except pride.

Wisconsin hosts Cal Poly

I actually like this game.  It's not that it's destined to be a real barn burner.  I just like that Wisconsin has an OoC game to end their season.  Don't ask me why.  Ok...since you already did...I guess it's that Wisconsin has battled through everything under the sun this year to become bowl eligible, and now they get to roll out of town against a Cal Poly team that they should beat.  I know it's not sexy or overly exciting, but I look at this game and feel a welcome sense of relief.  The Big Ten season is over for the Badgers.  They've done all they can do, now they get someone different to concentrate on.  This one should lock them into a bowl and make the seventh Big Ten team seeing action in December or January.  As long as...

Wisconsin can't take Cal Poly too lightly.  Cal Poly is 8-1.  They have a QB (J. Dally) who's thrown 20 TD's to only 1 INT.  They have three ball carriers who have combined for 25 more TD's.  Yes, all of these nice stats (or most, anyway) have come against competition that doesn't even remotely rival Big Ten play, but it does denote an offensive prowess that Wisconsin should take very seriously.  Really??  Yes, really.  Rule #1: Never underestimate your opponent.  If Wisconsin walks into this game thinking it's a slam dunk, they could find themselves in a tight spot.  Without this win, they don't go to a bowl.  Their great win over Minnesota will completely voided if they lose to a school the size of Cal Poly...especially since it's on their own home turf...in weather that should have the Mustangs frozen solid to their bench.

Michigan @ Ohio State

For one brief, shining moment, two weeks ago, Michigan began to look like the Michigan of old.  They mopped up the field with an unsuspecting Minnesota team....in the Metrodome.  Then, everything went south again when they lost to a wounded Wildcat team.  As if to rub salt in an open wound, that loss was the eighth for the Wolverines, the most they've ever had in a single season.  Michigan gets to follow up that stellar performance by visiting the Buckeyes at the Horse Shoe...with a Rose Bowl berth on the line for Ohio State.  Can anyone say "not the right time for this game"?  Normally, this would be a five star, must-see game.  Now it just looks like a chance for the Buckeyes to turn up the heat on Penn State and run up the stats for some of their all-stars.  Michigan has got to have lost all heart.  Can they pull it together for one game?  This is their golden opportunity to play spoiler to the Buckeyes Rose Bowl hopes.  What better way to salvage a disastrous season than by knocking your arch rival out of the only big game they have left?  It's also a chance to put up a fourth win and try to have something positive to carry them into next season.  They have to find some way to stop the bleeding.

For Ohio State, this game has obviously lost all the lustre, but not the importance.  They need Michigan State to knock off Penn State before they can get to Pasadena, but they also have to get past the Wolverines.  Look past this game and you could get burned.  Michigan isn't good this year.  Far from it.  But they did show spunk against the Golden Gophers.  They have the tools hidden somewhere up their sleeves to make this a close game.  The question is: can they find them?  The Buckeyes know exactly where all their tools are located: on the field.  Wells should slice through the Michigan D like a katana through whipped cream, and Pryor should light them up like a Christmas display.  They just need to stay focused for one more game, then wait to see what fate delivers to them.

Michigan State @ Penn State

Michigan State needs this game.  There's no two ways about that.  The Spartans still harbor hopes of seeing the Parade of Roses first hand.  They'll need a little help to get there, but they can't focus on that right now.  Right now they have a very determined Nittany Lion team standing in their way.  Michigan State has had a remarkable season all their own.  After losing a close one to Cal to start the season, the Spartans rolled out six straight wins before getting hammered by Ohio State.  Still, they didn't fall apart, like many teams do, and have ripped off three more wins consecutively.  Javon Ringer has lost the lead in the rushing stats, and that may be reason enough for him to kick it up a notch this week and test Penn State's resolve.  Their defense will have their hands full, but they'll come out fired up and ready to slow down Royster.  Hoyer will have to be on his game, though.  Penn State is killer against the pass.  Michigan is a lock for a great bowl game this year, but that's not enough.  They haven't been this close to a Rose Bowl berth in quite a while.  They're not about to let this opportunity slip by without a fight.

Penn State needs this game just as badly.  If they lose this one, they not only will have lost their spot in the NCG, but will watch the Rose Bowl go to someone else also.  They're the only team of the three competing for a shot at the Roses who has their fate in their own hands.  Win and they're in, it's that simple.  They started a little slow against Indiana last weekend and allowed the Hapless Hoosiers to stay in the game for a full half.  Do that against MSU and they'll find themselves fighting from behind.  They get this one at home, though, and the crowd won't let them lay down on the job.  MSU gives up quite a few yards on the ground and through the air, but they still find ways to win.  Penn State needs to put this one away early, but it won't be easy.  This one's not just for the Roses; it's for a sense of normalcy.  You can write off one game as a fluke or a bad day in the rain.  Two, however, leaves a nagging doubt.  If Clark and Royster are on their games, they can put this one behind them and head to Pasadena to unload their remaining frustrations on the PAC 10.

My Game of the Week

Iowa @ Minnesota

Iowa pulled out an ugly win over a Purdue team they should have slaughtered.  Some say Iowa's not that good.  Others say Purdue's better than their record indicates.  I say Iowa is potentially the best team in the conference, and Purdue is better than their record indicates.  But then again, I'm biased.  Unashamedly so.  Still, that win wasn't exactly the kind of win I wanted to see Iowa get before heading north to face the Golden Gophers.  Minnesota is on a huge slide, but they're still a decent team and Iowa has not been good on the road.  Six of their seven wins have come at home and three of their four losses were on the road.  The Hawkeyes are pretty much locked into a bowl, but which one exactly is up to them...maybe.  Maybe?  Well, according to Hawkeye Nation, Iowa could get a spot in the Outback Bowl whether they win or lose this one, but a win would nearly lock them in.  If not this one, then the Alamo Bowl is their likely destination.  Both are good bowls and considering they were home for Christmas last year, any bowl is better than last year.  The Hawks do have more than just bowl games to fight for, though.  That nasty little three game losing streak in the middle of the season, coupled with that loss at Illinois has kept Iowa off everyone's radar as a truly good team.  It doesn't matter how close they were, or who ended up ranked and who didn't, or any of that other stuff that we Iowa fans toss about to talk up our team.  They lost and that's the bottom line.  Iowa caught everyone's attention with the win over PSU, but another big win over Minnesota would help solidify that Iowa really can beat someone with a pulse.  Also there's the issue of boosting Shonn Greene's cred with the Heisman people.  I'm royally irked that Kirk Ferentz won't do more to promote the best back in the league, but it is what it is.  Shonn's on his own there, so this is his last chance to prove he really needs to be in the discussion.

Minnesota has watched their dream season fall completely apart.  Not so long ago, I was singing their praises, much like everyone else in the country.  That was before their three game losing streak.  Suddenly, a very good looking Gopher team is looking pretty mediocre.  They'll have their hands full slowing down Greene, but if Minnesota can put pressure on Ricki Stanzi, all bets are off regarding the consistency of Iowa's offense.  Minnesota knows this already and likely will be making plans for it.  This is a pretty big game for Minnesota.  Not only is it a rivalry game that's gone back many years, it's their last chance to impress some bowl people and (most importantly) get some positive momentum going before bowl season starts.  Bottom line: Minnesota needs to find something positive before they go to a bowl.  Bad karma follows you.  Maybe karma's the wrong word to use there, but you get my drift.  Minnesota needs to turn things around and getting a win over Iowa would be a huge boost to their confidence, plus it would give them the sendoff they deserve in the Metrodome for the final time.

Okay folks.  That's it for my first look.  I'll be back tomorrow night to put up my picks for the last time this regular season.  Good luck and Happy bowl hunting!!