It's getting down to the wire for bowl games and the Big Ten is fighting for their rightful place. Unfortunately, their rightful place will be denied because of a system that's critically flawed in virtually every aspect. That's a whole other Oprah, though, and I'll address that in due time. Still, there are several Big Ten teams that can still earn a very nice bowl game and help improve the Big Ten image. Without further ado, let's take a quick look at the teams/games happening in week 12.
Northwestern @ Michigan
Northwestern enjoyed a brief BCS ranking, then had to face Ohio State. Bye-bye BCS ranking. This week could have been a great opportunity to re-enter the fray of ranked teams, but all of a sudden Michigan decided to show up to play some football. This is almost a no-win situation for the Wildcats. If they win this game, it gains no real attention from anyone because Michigan is 3-7, out of bowl contention, and off of anyone's radar as a competitive team. If they lose, it's a huge hit to their credibility for the very same reasons. Nevermind that Michigan just clobbered a Minnesota team that has looked very impressive all year long. The Wildcats need to approach this game as though they're playing the Michigan of old, because they may well be. They'll need to have strong play at the lines to afford their offense an opportunity to score some points. Most importantly, they have to be able to provide steady pressure on both sides of the ball until Michigan starts making mistakes. At 7-3, Northwestern is already locked into a bowl game. The only question now is which one? That'll depend on which Wildcat team can show up over the next two weeks: the one that started the season so strongly or the one that's lost 3 of their last 5, including Indiana.
Michigan is just looking for a little r-e-s-p-e-c-t. Their big win over Minnesota turned some heads, at least among members of the Big Ten. They're out of bowl contention completely, so there's nothing left to worry about except building momentum for 2009 and saving RichRod's job. They have the talent to be a real force against any opponent, but they've just shot themselves in the foot over and over. It's taken most of the season and they had to sell off one of the longest continuous bowl streaks in all of college football, but they may just be putting the pieces back together. The game this week is a momentum builder. Northwestern is suffering injuries and struggling to hold together what was a great season. It's a good time for Michigan to meet up with them. A win here can help propel them into their showdown with the Buckeyes next week.
Minnesota @ Wisconsin
Minnesota was duped last weekend. They thought they were getting a Michigan team that was in shambles. Instead they got blindsided by a team that dominated both sides of the ball from beginning to end. The Golden Gophers have already solidified a spot in the post season, but getting to January 1st will be tricky. Up this week is a resurging Wisconsin team that's starting to look more like it did before their five game meltdown, followed by Iowa that has, at times, looked as good as anyone in the Big Ten. They'll need to at least split the games to make a case for a New Year's Day bowl game. For their sake, I hope they learned a little something from last weeks game. They need to watch tape to see where they can improve and for goodness sakes, don't take either of these two teams lightly. Wisconsin has beaten Illinois, fought hard against Michigan State and plastered Indiana. They're dangerous. And Iowa has played everyone tough all year and finally learned how to win the close game last week against top five powerhouse Penn State. If the Gophers get back to basics and play hard football, they can get a win, but they've got to put the gloves on tight, because this will be a prize fight to the finish.
Wisconsin is finding their stride. Losing to MSU hurt a little bit simply because it was so close. I don't care what the coaches or players say, a one point loss sticks in your craw for a while and nags at you. "If only we'd" is a phrase that keeps running through your mind and the possibilities of what that extra win might mean eats at you. They did a great job of rebounding in style against Indiana. Obviously it was a game Wisconsin could win, but they won it convincingly and that indicates that they took the right attitude going into the game. The Badgers are 5-5, which means they're certainly within range of getting a bowl game. Just one win makes them eligible, but they'll need two wins to make it happen. They have to get past Minnesota and they have the tools to get it done. Their lines are strong, they have an effective running game and are looking better and better on defense. If they take it to Minnesota, they can certainly win. That'll make them bowl eligible going into their game against Cal Poly. Basically, this is the last chance for Wisconsin to make a case that they belong in a bowl game. Lose this one and it won't matter how badly they beat up on Cal Poly, it won't get them their 13th game.
This game will come down to who wants it more.
Ohio State @ Illinois
Any chance of the Buckeyes going to the NCG went out the window when they lost a heartbreaker to Penn State. So they thought they were playing for a trip to Pasadena. Then Penn State lost to Iowa. Now, where will the Buckeyes land? Basically, Pasadena is still a possiblity, but they need to be big Spartan fans for that to pan out. If MSU beats PSU, the Buckeyes will be conference champions by virtue of smoking the Spartans a month ago. If not, PSU goes to the Rose Bowl and OSU has to hope for an at-large bid into the BCS. All of that is null and void if OSU can't get past Illinois and records aside, that's not going to be an easy task. Illinois is still a strong team, just one that seems to shoot themselves in the foot. Illinois is particularly tough at home. Buckeye fans have certainly not forgotten that it was Juice Williams and Co. that knocked them off only a season or two ago.
Illinois is in much the same position Iowa was in a week ago. They haven't beaten anyone of note all year, unless you consider Michigan a team of note and they definitely weren't. They've lost to Missouri, Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Western Michigan while beating Eastern Illinois, Louisiana-Lafayette, Michigan, Indiana and snuck past Iowa. They're .500 on the year, but haven't proven that they are deserving of a bowl game. This is their big chance to prove something to their fans, themselves and the rest of college football. OSU may not have the respect they deserve on the national scale, but they're still the same powerful Buckeyes that have terrorized the Big Ten for basically ever. A win against them would make the Illini bowl eligible and make a very strong case that they deserve a post season.
Indiana @ Penn State
Indiana is a big disappointment this year. Last season, an emotional Hoosier team punched, kicked and scratched their way to a bowl game. They had high hopes of building on that this year and maybe throwing their hat into a slightly bigger arena. Unfortunately, they've moved backward instead of forward. They're out of the bowl picture with two games still to go and the only win they have in the Big Ten was a shocker over Northwestern. They were hoping for an 8 or 9 win season, but they've likely won all the games they're going to this year. This week they travel to a Penn State team that will desperately want and need to make a big statement after a heartbreaking loss that knocked them out of the National Title hunt. Indiana is going to have to take the brunt of a very angry Nittany Lion.
Everyone in the nation has heard about Penn State slipping against Iowa. I won't beat that down here. It's only unfortunate that it happened this late in the season and that Iowa doesn't get the credit they deserve which is then passed onto the Lions. This week they need to do what everyone thought they should do last week: win in style. Anything less than an enormously embarrasing, kick-you-while-you're-down victory will only work against PSU. Especially because, standing in the wings is a Spartan team that knows they still have a chance to go to Pasadena in January. They'll be watching very closely to see how PSU handles the emotional letdown this week and trying to pick out any weakness that they might be able to exploit next week. Penn State needs to just put all bowl talk aside for now and concentrate on the task at hand: destroying a very weak Hoosier team in front of their home crowd. In my opinion, they're still one of the best teams in the nation. This week is a good chance to remind themselves that they are and let the rest fall into place.
My Game of the Week
Purdue @ Iowa
Purdue shouldn't be this bad. They have an offense that can put points on the board. But their defense is laughable at best. Actually, Purdue did put up two respectable performances against Ohio State and Penn State, but the rest of the season they just laid down and got steamrolled by lesser teams. If they can find that same defensive spark against Iowa that they had against the Buckeyes and Lions, they could pull of a win this week in Kinnick Stadium and make Iowa re-evaluate their program yet again. They're going to find the going tough, though, as they're facing a defense that rivals anyone in the nation.
Iowa can't get too high on themselves. I'll be the first to say that I think Iowa should be a top 25 team and could give anyone a run for their money. But the Hawkeyes can't forget that they're not a top 25 team, they're 6-4 and they lost to Illinois - a team that probably won't see a bowl game this year. The win last week was a classic and should give this program the credibility they've been desperately seeking all year long. Unfortunately, most of the nation is just looking at it as a slap in PSU's face rather than giving Iowa their due. My advice would be to get angry. Be angry that not enough people recognize your offensive prowess. Get angry that, despite having one of the best defenses in college football, no one thinks you're a team worth getting too worked up about. Get angry that losing three straight games by a total of 9 points to three teams that are, were, and still could be, ranked in the top 25, isn't enough to make that PSU victory look natural. Get angry...then take it out on Purdue. But be careful. This could be a "trap game" of sorts for you too. Purdue may have no defense of note, but they did hold OSU/PSU to respectably low numbers and their offense has lit up quite a few defenses this year. Don't overlook them. Get angry, play the kind of ball you know how to play and show the country that the Iowa Hawkeyes are really a 9-1 team stuck in a 6-4 package.
Also...
Michigan State - BYE
It's the time of year for teams to suddenly become big fans of other teams. Michigan State is in the unenviable position to be one of those teams now. After playing ten straight weeks, the Spartans finally get a chance to catch their breath, evaluate their casualties and watch the bowl picture unfold in front of them. They are only partially in control of their destiny, but their hopes of a trip to the Rose Bowl aren't dashed just yet. If either Illinois or Michigan can score an upset over Ohio State, then the Spartans jump past them in the Big Ten pecking order. It's unlikely that Indiana will take Penn State out of the picture, but the Spartans get the honor of that opportunity themselves in two weeks. So, for this week, the boys in green and white need to donn thier orange and blue. If Ohio State wins out, it doesn't matter what the Spartans do against the Nittany Lions, they won't be going to Pasadena, so the Illini are their only hope. If Illinois can't get it done, then State needs to become new fans of their in-state rivals for the final week of the season. Those are the only two scenarios that will find MSU in California to ring in the New Year.
That shouldn't distract the Spartans from the big issue, however. All the scenario talk in the world will be moot if they can't beat Penn State in Happy Valley next week. They'd better take this week for what it's worth: a chance to rest, put together a killer game plan and psych themselves up for a real fight. It wouldn't hurt to get a set of Illini pom-poms though.
That's my first look at the teams in the Big Ten for this week. I know it was less about the games than about the bowl picture, but at this point, I think everyone knows what the teams are capable of. I'm planning on having my picks up tomorrow, so check back in.
In the meantime I know PSPKNINE has his picks up and I'm sure SEABASS will too shortly.
Good luck and Happy Bowl Hunting!
P.S. As the bowl picture becomes more official, I'll post the matchups and treat those games the same way I do Big Ten games with a First Look and Picks with updates. I'll likely throw in a few non-Big Ten bowls too, just for kicks, so stay tuned!
Veteran