I'm getting a jump start on my picks this week.  I usually wait until a little later, but it's not getting any better, so I'll go ahead and lay them out. 

Everything points to this week being pretty cut and dry, but it's crunch time for several teams fighting for bowl eligibility.  I see a couple of potential upsets waiting out there...

I had a fairly average week, which beats the bejeezus out of what I did last week.  Looking at PSPKNINE'S and SEABASS' picks, we all were pretty equal this week.  Onto the updates!  By the way....I'm getting into the spirit a little late.  The Iowa fans had a "Greene Out" to show support for Shonn Greene's Heisman chase.  Thought I'd choose green as my update color to join in and show my support as well.  If it's hard to read, I apologize, just let me know and I'll make sure to use a different color next time.

Illinois @ Western Michigan

It's another MAC attack on the Big Ten, but will Illinois break the string of Big Ten failure?  Most likely, yes.  Western Michigan is a solid MAC team, but a solid MAC team should have trouble with a poor Big Ten team, and Illinois isn't poor. 

What I'd do if I was Illinois'...

OC: throw every play in the book at them.  It's not that their defense is anything I'd be particularly afraid of, but when else will you get to pull out that double-reverse-flea-flicker-half-back- pass?  May as well use it now, just for kicks...  Seriously, though, stick with the girl that brung ya.  As Juice goes, so goes the team, right Zook? 

DC:  Give your line a huge pat on the back.  Iowa's O-Line was supposed to be pretty tough and you blew them apart.  Do the same this week and this game is a walk away.

What I'd do if I was Western Michigan's....

OC:  Quick pass.  Don't give the Illini defensive line enough time to get at your QB.  Your running backs probably aren't going to have a ton of success, at least not in big chunks, so use the quick slants and quick outs to pull their linebackers away from the line a little.  Remember...it's all about moving the chains.

DC:  It shouldn't be a big mystery.  Key on Williams.  Blitz if that's what you need to do, but get at him.  For God's sake, though, don't blitz the cornerback from two miles out like Iowa tried to do.  Juice is much too fast.  Bring the LB"s.  Stack the box and get at him.

What will likely happen:  Western Michigan will make a good show of it, at least for the first half.  Then Illinois will dominate on both sides of the ball and walk away with this one.

Illinois 33 - Western Michigan 17

Actual: Western Michigan 23 - Illinois 17

I came very close to picking Western Michigan in this game, but opted for the Big Ten team instead.  Hawk fans well remember that Western Michigan burned them twice at the end of the season.  Last season, they kept Iowa from a 13th game.  Remembering that, I dearly wanted to pick them to win.  But Illinois isn't Iowa and I thought Williams would confuse the Bronco D sufficiently to get the win.  That didn't happen and suddenly things look very bleak for the Fighting Illini.  Coming into the season they were hoping to return to the Rose Bowl and maybe even make a case for something bigger.  Now they're 5-5 (3-3 Big Ten) and will need to win out just to secure a bowl game.  With Ohio State on tap next and a trip to meet Northwestern in their final game, Illinois will be lucky to finish the season with a .500 record. 

Wisconsin @ Indiana

Wisconsin is definitely coming around.  They should have won against MSU, but sometimes it takes baby steps to get where you're going.  Indiana is a great opportunity for Wisconsin to make a statement.  That statement would be "we're baaaaaaaack"

What I would do if I was Wisconsin's...

OC:  Pound the ball down their throat.  You're Wisconsin, for crying out loud, not Northwestern.  You don't need the spread offense, at least not yet.  Play good old fashioned Badger Ball.  Beat them into submission, then do a little passing tap dance on their face.  You know you like that kind of football anyway, so why fight it? 

DC:  Get at the QB, whoever that may end up being this week.  Indiana's O-Line shouldn't provide too much trouble for you, but just in case, have a couple of blitz packages ready.  Just watch your secondary.  Oh yeah...and put some duct tape on Bielema's mouth.  That unsportsmanlike penalty was just stupid.  A good coach knows how far to push the argument and when to walk away, having probably had his argument fall on deaf ears in the first place.

What I'd do if I was Indiana's...

OC:  Your instructions are the same as Western Michigan's.  Work the short pass.  Wisconsin is going to get pressure on your QB, so don't give them time to get too far.  Your RB is going to get a workout, too.  Work the perimeter.  You won't get anywhere up the middle so try the sweep and keep that screen pass open.  If time allows, go for the deep ball.  The Badger secondary got picked apart last week, so give them a try.  Unfortunately, you won't have time.

DC:  Your pass rush was better against CMU, thanks to blitzes.  Keep running on those tracks.  Your D-Line won't be able to get much pressure on Sherer by themselves.  He's proven to be fumble prone if you can get to him, so throw the kitchen sink at him.  It may be your only real hope.

What will happen: Wisconsin's O-Line is healthy and strong.  Their defense is as good as anyone's.  Indiana is in big trouble.

Wisconsin: 31 - Indiana 10

Actual: Wisconsin 55 - Indiana 20

That's a pretty good thumping, but I'm not surprised.  As I said in my pick, Wisconsin appears to be quickly getting back on track.  At 5-5, the Badgers are not where they expected to be at this point in the season, but they have a solid shot at making a bowl game and after 5 straight losses mid-season, that's saying something.  They have to get past Minnesota before they get Cal Poly to end the season, but I wouldn't put it past the Red and White to make that happen.  Indiana is officially out of the bowl hunt altogether.  I want to feel sorry for the team that gutted out a 13th game last year, but someone has to be the whipping post for Big Ten teams needing to get back on track and I'm glad it's not Iowa!

Michigan @ Minnesota

Geez, what a mismatch this game should be.  Michigan stinks.  Minnesota doesn't.  Need I say more?

What I'd do if I was Michigan's...

OC:  forfeit.

DC:  forfeit.

What I'd do if I was Minnesota's...

OC:  Do everything you've done all season, only make it look ten times better.

DC:  ditto...

What will likely happen:  Minnesota had a letdown last week, but they'll be fired up this week.  Michigan can try all they like, but they're no match for Minnesota this year.  It'll be a bloodbath.

Minnesota: 42 - Michigan 20

Actual: Michigan 29 - Minnesota 6

I don't even know what to think about this.  Minnesota: what happened?  I'll tell you what's about to happen if you don't figure it out.  Your Cinderella season will crash and burn.  Given how consistently poor Michigan has played all year and how well Minnesota has played all year, I wouldn't have picked this outcome if a Wolverine fan had paid me to.  But just when you think you're getting a feel for things, Michigan peeks their head in the door and decides to play a game.  Now the question is: can we expect this kind of play out of Michigan from here on out or was this a one-and-done anomoly?  The Wolverines have Northwestern and Ohio State to close out their season, so they'd better hope this game was a sign of things to come.  As for Minnesota, at 7-3, they're pretty well locked into a bowl game.  The question is: what kind of bowl game?  They have two weeks to figure it out, but have to travel to resurgent Wisconsin and then host an Iowa team that will present the toughest defense they'll meet all season.  It won't be easy to get anything better than a mid-to-lower level bowl.

Purdue @ Michigan State

This one could actually be interesting.  It shouldn't be...but it could.  Purdue's offense tends to put up big numbers against everyone but OSU and PSU.  On the other hand, their defense couldn't stop a feather blowing in the wind.  The final score will depend on MSU's ability to slow down the Boilermakers.  Do they let it turn into a shootout or do they turn this into a one-sided smackdown?

What I'd do if I was Purdue's....

OC:  Wisconsin had success running against the Spartans.  Your O-Line doesn't quite stack up to Wisconsin's, but it might be enough, particularly if Siller gets the start.  If he does, you have a whole new set of weapons at your disposal, so use them just as you did against Michigan.  State would much rather clobber a fairly stationary Painter than chase after a mobile Siller.  Whether Painter's healthy or not, I'd let him "rest" another week.

DC:  You've got your work cut out for you.  Key on Ringer and you open the door for Hoyer.  Watch Hoyer too long and Ringer will run right by you.  Hang on tight and do the best you can.  Key on Ringer, slow him down and hope your secondary can do enough to keep you in the game.  Then pray your offense can do the rest.

What I'd do if I was Michigan State's...

OC:  You know what to do.  Purdue's defense is in a constant state of confusion.  Just keep mixing things up between Hoyer and Ringer and you should find your way to the endzone often.

DC:  Your game plan could be altered from what you first expected.  If Siller starts this game, imagine you're playing Illinois.  Stop the QB and you stop the offense.  If Painter starts, you have a less mobile target to go after.  Block him into the pocket and play pinball with his still-attached helmet.

What will likely happen:  Here's the conundrum:  Purdue puts up points.  Michigan State puts up points.  It seems so clear that Michigan State's defense would be more than sufficient to provide the difference.  However, Purdue could turn this into a real shootout and surprise some people in the end.  What's more, MSU could be looking well ahead of this game, thinking it's in the bag.  That could be very, very bad.  I'm going to go waaaaay out on a limb here and pick the upset.

Purdue 33- Michigan State 30

Actual: Michigan State 21 - Purdue 7

I suppose I should apologize to MSU fans for picking against them in this game.  In my defense, I felt an upset somewhere and this looked like the kind of game MSU could blow off.  From what I've read and heard (I didn't get to see this game either), it was a turnover fest.  That's not the kind of thing MSU needs, but turnovers aside, MSU got it done.  Now they have a week off to think about Penn State.  With only 1 loss in the conference, the Spartans are still in the hunt for a share of the conference title.  It's November and anything can happen.

Ohio State @ Northwestern

This should probably be the game of the week, but I'm an Iowa fan, so that's not going to happen.  Northwestern's offense is explosive and their defense is....okay.  However, their defense did come up big against Minnesota in the end.  Still, we're not talking about Minnesota's offense, we're talking about Ohio State's.  They have a different approach and more overall talent.  It wasn't easy against Minnesota, it'll be much tougher against the Buckeyes.

What I'd do if I was Ohio State's....

OC:  Run Wells.  Your defense is capable of slowing down Northwestern's offense, so wear down their defense.  Yeah, you have plenty of other tools at your disposal and you can use them at will, but center your offensive attack around the run early.  You're coming off a bye week, so everyone should be well rested.  Run, run run.  Then, when the Wildcats are gasping for air, pick them apart at will.

DC:  Expect Kafka to start again.  Bacher is mostly healthy, but I can't fathom that NW will start him after the performance Kafka put in last week.  He's very mobile and has a cannon for an arm, so you'll have your work cut out to reel him in.  Turn Little Animal loose on him and keep him in check with blitzes and heavy rush.  The NW ground game isn't really all that, but don't ignore it completely.  It'll all depend on which QB gets the call.  Shut down Kafka and expect Bacher to come back in.  Either way, you have to get someone into the backfield to disrupt things. 

What I'd do if I was Northwestern's....

OC:  Give all due respect to Bacher, but keep him ready on the bench.  Kafka is your new man.  He's more mobile and basically gives you an extra running back who knows how to throw the ball.  You won't be able to get the rushing numbers you got against Minnesota, but you can still move the ball well.  Especially if the Buckeyes don't know who exactly will be carrying the ball.  Work the option.  I hate the option, but work the option.  While you have LB's scrambling after the running QB, he can unload on an unsuspecting secondary.

DC:  The key to this game will be how well you can handle the OSU attack.  Key on the running game and try with all your might to make OSU a one-sided team.  If that fails, blitz for all you're worth.  You have to get results at the line.  Point, blank and period. 

What will likely happen:  Northwestern could make this really exciting.  I'm even a little tempted to pick an upset here, but I just can't.  The Buckeyes are too balanced for NW.  The Wildcats may have found the missing piece to their offensive puzzle, their defense is still lacking too much, while the Buckeye defense is stout.  Balance will overcome explosiveness.

Ohio State 38 - Northwestern 28

Actual: Ohio State 45 - Northwestern 10

Well, I was just a weee bit off picking the score.  It's not really surprising though.  I don't think OSU took that loss to PSU very well.  I also think they're taking the public thrashing a little personally.   NW was outclassed every step of the way. 

My Game of the Week

Penn State @ Iowa

There is a very simple explanation for Iowa's collapse against Illinois: the play of the O-Line.  Anyone who knows line play knows that cohesiveness is absolutely crucial for success.  Iowa was missing a key link in their chain with Seth Olsen out of the lineup.  Olsen is supposedly back this week, which means the O-Line could be back in form.  Not to make excuses, but one man can affect the performance of everyone around them.  With Olsen back, the line should perform better than it's dismal showing against the Illini.  That can change the entire outlook of the game.  With Iowa's defense as stout as it's ever been, PSU will have to work to get into the end zone and Mitch King is seriously ticked off at losing last week.  He's not a man you want ticked off.  Iowa will be playing with a fire in their bellies this week.  But...

Penn State has everything to lose.  They were looked over in favor of Texas Tech in the BCS standings and the only way to ensure that they get a shot at the National Championship is to win out and remain undefeated on the season.  They know that Iowa can be dangerous to them, so they won't be taking this game lightly.  What's more, they're coming off a bye week, so they'll be fully rested, as healed as they're going to be and will have had plenty of time to evaluate every aspect of Iowa's game.  They have the tools and the motivation to mop the field in Black and Gold.

What I'd do if I was Penn State's....

OC:  I said it last week and I'll say it again: take what Iowa gives you.  The mid-range attack is Iowa's Achilles Heel.  How many times last week did we see Illinois connect for a 7 yard pass to either move the sticks or put them into great position to move the sticks?  They gave you the road map, so use it.  Your offensive line will have to be on top of their game, though.  Mitch King and Matt Kroul will push them around and find their way into the backfield.  I don't care who you are, these guys can't be stopped outright.  Quick drops and short passes are the key.  Your running game will find moderate success, but not near the goal line.  Your best bet is to use both the pass and the run in perfect balance.  Keep guys like AJ Edds and Pat Angerer guessing, but be careful...both are pretty good at picking off passes and breaking up plays.

DC:  Illinois also showed you the road map here.  Get at Ricki Stanzi.  He's a very good quarterback...in training.  With plenty of time, he's golden.  On a short run, he's even more golden.  But when he's better served stepping up in the pocket and making the play, he gets frustrated and does something stupid.  What's more, he has a tendency to play only half the field, so just keep an eye on the direction his helmet is facing.  He rarely looks the other way, so you can probably play on just half a field.  Shonn Greene has rushed for 9 straight 100 yard games and may well make it 10 against you, but if you shut down Stanzi, it really won't matter much what Greene does.  Rattle the young man under center and you'll make Iowa a one-dimensional team again. 

What I'd do if I was Iowa's....

OC:  Ken O'Keefe, you've got to get the play calls in to your QB quickly.  That nonsense of waiting until there's 5 seconds on the play clock doesn't work against anyone and you just end up burning important timeouts.  Okay, enough about that.  As for a game plan, run the ball.  You've got a great backup in Jewel Hampton, so (for this game) use both Greene and Hampton.  Use the run early to guage the performance of the O-Line and setup the play action fake.  Don't jump to it immediately.  Of course, part of this will depend on the defense's ability to slow down PSU's attack, but if they're keeping it close, don't panic.  Stick to your game plan.  Think: Greene 200 yards, Hampton 100.  It won't happen, but if you have that as a frame of reference, maybe you'll give the run game a shot.  Then take what you give.  Work the short pass, especially to the TE.  Most of all...protect the ball!!!

DC:  Norm, you know you don't have to worry about your line.  King and Kroul are on a mission and they're ticked off.  Let them do their thing.  Work on the secondary.  Edds and Angerer are going to have to be very mobile this week and keep them moving to the ball.  Your CB's and safeties are going to have know their assignments and keep to them.  That blown coverage TD against Illinois was embarrasing.  Hound your guys all week long to stick to their assignments until they're seeing you in their dreams shouting at them to stick to their assignments!  If King/Kroul and Co. are getting into the backfield and your guys are where they're supposed to be, the long ball will be eliminated and you can play the kind of defense you've played all year.  Most importantly...no one scores in our house.  That's got to be your motto this week.  PSU will more than test your resolve on this issue.  Lastly, bring it to them.  Show them you're not afraid of them and attack like you mean it.

What will likely happen: There are big questions as to the strength of the Iowa O-Line after last week.  The play of that line may make all the difference in this game.  If they're back on, this could be a real thriller.  If they're off, forget about it.  I'm betting they're on.  This will be a defensive throw down, backyard brawl.  Iowa won't be intimidated by the spread offense and PSU won't be afraid of Shonn Greene.  In the end, it'll come down to which offense can make the final strike.  I know everyone will think I'm insane, but I'm going with the upset.

Iowa 23 - Penn State 21

Actual: Iowa 24 - Penn State 23

I have to give Kirk Ferentz a little credit for chosing Daniel Murray to kick the final field goal instead of Mossbrucker.  Murray is the better kicker in my opinion and this was the biggest game of the year for the Hawkeyes.  That aside, this was a GREAT game (and not just because my Hawks won).  Truth be told, the Lions dominated this game in every aspect for three quarters with one very big exception: the score.  PSU held the ball for an astounding 23 minutes (and change) in the first half, leaving Iowa less than 7 to try and do something.  Ricki Stanzi couldn't even get his arms thawed out in that short amount of time.  JoePa's crew methodically moved the ball a few yards at a time, consistently getting 3rd and short situations that they converted easily.  However, Iowa's defense, always of the "bend but don't break" attitude, did just that, forcing the Lions into two field goals and only one touchdown. 

I have to mention this because it's been on my mind since watching the game.  Everyone (including the ESPN announcers) wondered why on earth Iowa allowed so much time to run off the clock at the end of the first half when they had all three timeouts at their disposal.  Did anyone else notice the looks on the players faces as they made two consecutive first downs and moved the ball steadily down the field?  It was an "aha" moment for the Hawkeyes and especially Ricki Stanzi.  For the first time all game, that offense realized that they could move the ball against Penn State through the air with consistency.  Up until then it was a game of inches for the Hawks, and even the inches were scarce.  Suddenly, the O-Line realized they could give Stanzi enough time to throw and the receivers realized they could find places to get open.  Everything changed after that.

The second half was a different ballgame altogether.  Iowa's offense found a leader in young Stanzi and the pass game came into effect.  That opened the door for Shonn Greene to get his tenth straight 100 yard game and kept Iowa in a game that could have gotten ugly quickly.  It also allowed the defense an opportunity to catch their breath and get a second wind.  Most importantly, it got the crowd back in the game, which fired up the whole Iowa team.

For Penn State's part, they played their game and played it well.  Yes, they had a few penalties, but give credit where credit is due.  They had a couple of holding penalties, which you can't blame when Mitch King started blowing past their line and getting into the backfield.  They had to do something and hoped they wouldn't get caught.  Everyone does that.  They did have a very costly pass interference call, but again, the safety was going for the ball and just misjudged his timing.  That could happen to anyone and the game was in the balance.  Better to get the penalty than give up the six points.  They controlled the ball on offense and made Shonn Greene get his yards the hard way: a couple at a time. 

In the end, this game came down to a pass floated in the wind and a team that refused to lose another close game.  This game had stout defenses flexing their muscles, potent offenses pulling out the stops and a ton of heart all laid on the line in a one point thriller.  I'd vote it for an instant classic, but then again, I'm partial.

Alright folks, there they are.  Pick them apart; do your worst.  I'll be around throughout the week to defend myself as best I can. 

Well, I was 3-3 on the week.  That's not great, but considering no one predicted Michigan to beat Minnesota, or Western Michigan to beat Illinois, I don't feel too bad about it.  Thanks to everyone for checking out my picks and leaving some great comments.  I'll be back tomorrow for a first look at week 12 and should have my picks up by Tuesday.  Good luck to all this coming week. 

If you haven't already, be sure to check out these other Big Ten sites.  They've picked a couple different than I have, and they're definitely a good read.

SEABASS2003

PSPKNINE

Happy Bowl Hunting!