Spring scrimmages are over and it's time to update what we know about these teams as we prep for the 2009 season.  Much of the information I'm going off of comes from scout.com as I wasn't able to watch the spring games in person.  I won't make any major adjustments to my previous posts, but will use this information as an "addition" to what I've already written.  Without further ado:

Indiana Hoosiers

Moving Kellen Lewis to receiver from QB looks like it was a good move.  I didn't doubt that it would be.  Lewis has good speed, makes good moves in the open field and has decent hands.  The question with the move was how he would gel with Ben Chappel.  Apparently, pretty well, and that will give Indiana a new threat on the corners, as long as the Offensive Line will give Chappel the time to set up and get rid of the ball.  I don't think Ben is mobile enough to be a great thower on the run.
Edit:  Kellen Lewis is no longer a member of the Indiana University Football program.  Indiana's new offense took a big hit with this development.

Chappel completed 14 of 22 passes for 205 yards and two touchdowns.  Damario Belcher looked like a pretty good target, hauling in 6 passes for 82 yards and a TD.  If Lewis is as good against real opponents as he was against his fellow Hoosiers, this could be a receiving duo that will ignite the Hoosier offense.

They're going to need to.  Darius Willis carried the ball 13 times for 80 yards (6.15 ypc), but I'm not sure he's a solid enough back to carry the offense if the passing game sputters.  Again, the O-Line will be the key to his success, as is often the case with running backs.

I may have to update my predictions for Indiana.  While their defense is still questionable, the addition of Lewis on the receiving corps could add an element to the offense that might just make all the difference between a 5-7 team and a 7-5 one. 

Michigan Wolverines

The question I've been asking over and over is: how far will Michigan rebound this season? 

The word is, QB Tate Forcier looks pretty good under center up in Ann Arbor.  He's quick and comfortable in the role he's going to be fighting for.  RB Carlos Brown also looked pretty decent in ripping off a huge TD run. 

Here's the thing: that's all I'm really hearing.  I've not heard yet that the defense is showing signs of stepping up, nor do I have any intel saying how strong the O-Line is.  Those are two pretty big questions when you have a decent, but young QB and a running back that shows promise.  You need receivers.  You need an offensives line.  You need a defense.  What do those look like? 

I'd love to say that I had all this information that clears up the muddy picture of Michigan's future, but I don't.  Because of that, I don't see any reason to change my earlier predictions.  Michigan will struggle to get all the pieces into place.  They'll be better than last year, but I don't think they'll be that much better.  I may actually knock them down to 5-7 from 6-6.

Purdue Boilermakers

When I wrote my piece about the Purdue schedule, I wasn't very flattering to the Boilermakers.  I didn't think they'd have much of a turnaround this year.

OB Joey Elliott looked very good, completing 20 of 33 passes with a TD and an INT.  Coach Danny Hope is very happy with Elliott's progress. 

Along with Elliott, RB Ralph Bolden carried the ball 26 times for 153 yards, averaging 5.8 yards per carry.  What impresses on me the most is that he showed he can carry a big work load.  Twenty six carries in a game is no small order and he handled that well. 

So, here's the question: what about the defense?  Last year I kept saying that their defense was their weak point.  Some people didn't agree with me and pointed to their performance against Ohio State that their D was perfectly fine.  The problem is, there were just one or two games that they were able to hold their opponents under 21 points.  That's not indicative of a strong defense in my book, especially considering other teams in the conference were able to keep a lower point-per-game average against virtually the same opponents.  So, how much have they improved, or have they?

That's pretty important to know.  Elliotts numbers could be horribly skewed if the pass defense is weak as could Bolden's if the run defense is weak.  They may not look nearly that good against real Big Ten defenses.  Actually, I'm betting that they won't. 

I'm not inclined to change my mind about Purdue right now.  Until they show me that their defense is strong enough to keep their opponents off the board with more consistency, I'm not overly impressed with what their offense is showing.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Before the spring scrimmages, Illinois was excited about the improvements on both sides of the ball.

Juice Williams went 13 of 26 for 150 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.  Those numbers aren't really bad, but they're also not at all what I expected.  Actually, that's not true.  This is almost exactly what I expected.  Something seemed to disappear from Williams last year.  He just wasn't the same guy.  Maybe he didn't have the support from the line that he had before.  Maybe it was a loss of a friendly target that he never overcame.  I don't know exactly what it was, but he lost something.  It doesn't look to me like he's gotten it back.  A QB of his perceived caliber should have better numbers than that, especially against his own defense.  He should know them and know what they're capable of.  I don't think he's going to be the Juice everyone's expecting. 

Defensively, Jerry Brown picked up seven tackles, six of them for losses and had two sacks.  That sounds pretty good for the Illini, so long as it's not more indicative of a weak O-Line than of a strong Jerry Brown.  I'm not sure who picked off Williams, but maybe their secondary is going to be tough this year.

From this limited look, I'm almost inclined to rethink the idea that they're going to be any better than they were last year.  They might even be a touch worse.  However, there is spark in their defense and if it's strong this year, that alone can make an enormous difference.  I'll leave my predictions alone for now.

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Last year the Gophers collapsed after a fantastic start.  Their first order of business is to repeat that start.  The next one is to find the spark that will carry them just a little farther. 

QB Adam Weber completed 9 of 12 passes for 77 yards.  That's not bad, but newcomer MarQueis "OJ" Gray was 8 of 10 for 141 yards and 2 TDs.  I don't see Weber losing the starting job, but at least we know that they've got a fiery young man waiting in the wings who may be just as good if not better.  Weber might be secure in his starting position, but he'd better watch his back all the same.

RB Troy Stoudemire had only 2 carries, but they were for 63 yards and a touchdown (54 of those on one carry).  Along with that, he had 3 catches for 31 yards and 3 kick returns for 143 yards.  I really like that this guy appears to be the total package.  He's got spark as a ball carrier, hands as a receiving back and could be a huge asset on special teams.  He may be the big star for Minnesota this year.

Over the course of last season, it appeared that Minnesota's defense hit a brick wall and collapsed.  How good are they?  Can they hold it together when they start getting into stiff competition?  They really need to because it looks like they might have an offense worth winning some games.

I'm not going to change my predictions for Minnesota yet.  They have the potential to be better, but their defense has to step up and stay up.

Wisconsin Badgers

The Badgers were another team that fell far short of everyone's expectations.  Early in the 2008 season they were rated as high as #3 by the Associated Press.  Then everything fell apart.  They need something to show that they've picked the pieces back up and are ready to take hold of their destiny. 

QB Dustin Sherer went 6 of 9 for 101 yards and an INT (pick six).  He did add a rushing TD.  The yardage isn't at all bad, nor is his completion percentage, but that's over only 9 passes.  That Pick-6 concerns me a little. 

Especially because redshirt freshman QB Curt Phillips went 10 of 16 for 122 yards and 2 TDs with a rushing TD thrown into the mix as well.  This kid had a great day.  As a redshirt freshman, he may not see any action this year, but with performances like that, he could make Brett Bielema change his mind.  Sherer needs to realize that he's not so safe.  Correction, he needs to be not so safe. 

RB John Clay rushed 12 times for 62 yards.  That's a respectable 5.2 yards per carry.  However, Zach Brown carried the ball just two more times and picked up 48 more yards (14 and 110 respectively) for an average of 7.8 ypc.  The younger guys are pushing the older guys and the veterans had better take notice and start doing something about it. 

The biggest problem with the Badger "D" last year was a lack of tackling.  Yes, they made many other mistakes in technique and coverage, but it was exacerbated by their lack of ability to bring opposing players to the ground.  Has that improved?  I don't know.  As with the earlier teams, if the defense hasn't picked up its play, then these stats mean nothing. 

I like that the new guys are getting the same, or better production as the older players.  Now, if the older players work hard to regain their status as the best in their positions, Wisconsin might get something rolling this year.  If not, things could get very ugly.  I'm not changing my picks for them.  I'm not convinced that the projected starters are worried enough about their positions, nor that the coaches are willing to shake things up. 

Northwestern Wildcats

The Wildcats had a great season in 2008.  True, they missed their goal of winning their bowl game, but getting there the way they did was impressive enough.  That they took Missouri down to the wire only confirmed in my mind that this team is turning things around. 

QB Mike Kafka went 12 of 21 for 134 yards and a TD.  I'm not very happy with that completion percentage, but in fairness, their defense was pretty good against the pass last year, and he's more of a running QB. 

They rotated three RB's getting 207 yards out of Stephen Simmons, Jeravin Matthews, and Alex Daniel.  I wasn't impressed with Simmons last year.  Their best bet might be to keep a running back rotation ongoing through the season.  Not a position battle, mind you, but a real rotation. 

I think Kafka needs to step up his passing game a bit, but I think the Wildcats will be fine.  I'm sticking with my earlier predictions.  They'll be good.  Not conference champion good, but good enough to give quite a few people trouble. 

Iowa Hawkeyes

I all predicted the Hawkeyes would go 9-3, but not-so-secretly felt they could possibly bump that up to 10-2.  I'm not so sure now.

Moving Marvin McNutt from 2nd string QB to receiver seems to be a good move, in the mold of Kellen Lewis.  He's shown good hands and lots of speed.  With the loss of Andy Brodell, this helps secure a solid receiving corps for a matured Ricky Stanzi to throw to. 

We didn't get to see a very clear look at Iowa as they're battling injuries.  LB A.J. Edds sat out with a shoulder injury, RB Jewel Hampton's battling a hamstring issue and safety Brett Greenwood was out as well.  Not seeing Edds or Greenway leaves our look at the defense a bit skewed.  Edds was a star and Greenway was just really starting to shine.  Missing Hampton is absolutely huge on offense as he is the one slated to replace Shonn Greene.  We saw very nice things out of him last year, but that was in limited relief of Greene. 

The reports I'm hearing are that the O-Line had some issues in the spring game.  My question is, was that because they were missing Olsen and Bruggeman that badly or is it that the D-Line is that good, even without King and Kroul?  I'm hoping it's the latter, but I'm not really convinced.  We saw the O-Line struggle without Olsen during that nasty losing streak in the middle of last season.  If it's a problem with the offense rather than an improvement in an already stiff defense, then Hampton and Stanzi are going to have a very tough season. 

I'm very tempted to hand the Hawkeyes a couple more losses, but I'll keep my prediction the same for now.  Getting back those injured players could make a big difference in the look of this team. 

Michigan State Spartans

The Spartans were within sniffing distance of the conference championship last season.  Now they're missing a couple of key people.  How will they handle the changes?

QB Keith Nichol went 20 of 28 for 357 yards and 4 TDs.  That's a monsterous performance, even if it is against your own defense.  The MSU defense was fairly decent last year, so that actually helps those numbers, as long as their D is still that good.

QB Kirk Cousins went 29 for 43, also for 357 yards and 4 TDs.  The QB's had a pretty great day.  The reason for that may be that...

No running backs stepped up to replace Javon Ringer.  I realize that replacing J.R. is a pretty tall order for any running back.  However, the rushing game was pretty well held in check and that's not a good sign for the Spartans.  Is the defense really that good?  I think they're pretty stout, but I'm not sure they're really that good.  I think MSU will be playing largely one-sided offense this year. 

That's not necessarily a terrible thing.  If their defense is good and their passing game is that productive, it'll open up a rushing game and they'll be just fine.  I'm counting on that happening, actually and I'm not changing my prediction for them.

Penn State Nittany Lions

What can be said of Penn State?  They're Penn State.  They've had good recruiting classes and it showed last season.  They were one win away from the National Championship game.  Then again, they were one win away from being Rose Bowl Champions, and that didn't work out either.  They just need a little oomph to get over the hump.

QB Daryll Clark went 10 of 13 for 123 yards.  I really love that percentage and 12.3 yards per completion isn't real shabby either.  You can nickle and dime yourself right into the end zone and if that's how Clark has to do it, it'll work. 

I didn't hear much about their running game.  That could be a problem.  PSU's "Spread HD" was effective, but not particularly spectacular.  The name gave it more power than it had on its own, I think.  Still, you can't argue with success.  Part of that success depends on having a run game that can compliment the QB, even in the spread.  I didn't see anything that stuck out to me in that department.

One other thing of note: LB Sean Lee was out with a knee injury.  I'm anxious to see how healthy he is come September and how ready to play he is.  The Nittany Lion defense was pretty solid last year and they've got enough issues with new faces on defense; they don't need him to be nursing along an injury.

I'm almost tempted to reduce Penn State's win total from my prediction.  How many, though?  Another thing that strikes me is that I'm not hearing a lot of excitement about this squad.  Why is that?  I'm almost tempted to predict them to lose two more this upcoming season and go 9-3, but I won't go that far.  I'll change it to 10-2, though.

Ohio State Buckeyes

The co-Champions of the Big Ten (only technically so as Penn State beat them in the head-to-head), were oh so close to getting the big game monkey off their back last year.  They've lost some huge players this year with Wells and Laurinaitis heading off to the NFL, among others.

QB Terrelle Pryor completed 13 of 18 passes for 191 yards and 2 TDs.  That's not bad considering even the Buckeye third string defense is better than many of the defenses he'll face in the Big Ten.  It's not the kind of production that I'd like to see from him in a spring scrimmage, but it's not bad, by any stretch.

RB Marcus Williams carried the ball 6 times for 94 yards (15.7 ypc).  Along with that, Brandon Saine carried 6 times for 55 yards (9.2 ypc).  That's pretty solid production from their running backs.  Neither of them may have the flair that Wells had, but then again, either of them could be bigger.  I don't think the rushing game is going to be a problem for the Buckeyes.

Defensively, LB Brian Rolle racked up 11 tackles and a sack.  That's pretty good single game production.

Just as I thought, it looks like Ohio State isn't having too many troubles retooling from their losses.  I think they'll be just as strong this year as they were last.  I'm not inclined to change my predictions on the Buckeyes.  I think they're the class of the Big Ten again this year. 

As I said at the beginning, I didn't get to watch any of the games, but had to search around the net to find reviews, opinions, etc.  There may be more when more info comes out of the games.  I invite anyone to add comments to give their opinions of what they saw in the games. 

Until next time, Happy Bowl Hunting!

Ohio State

The whipping boys of college football are the final team of my series on Big Ten schedules.  Yes, Ohio State has come up short in their last few games against top rated opponents.  Let's be a little fair here, though folks.  How many other teams fared as well as the Buckeyes did against Texas?  How many other teams suffered the very same fate against USC?  Say what you want about these Buckeyes, but they could've beaten better than 90% of the rest of the nation the last couple of years.

So, if you're Ohio State, what do you do to shut your detractors up?  Obviously, the answer is that you've got to beat the big teams.  They were very close to winning the Fiesta Bowl, but close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades.  This year, they've got to come out and prove that they are the undisputed champion of the Big Ten, not just just a co-Champion that snuck in on a technicality.  Technically, they lost to Penn State, but technically they had the same conference record.  There can be no question this year.

Ohio State is the kind of team that needs a pretty tough schedule if they're going to salvage any respect around the country.  Then, they've got to win.

The Schedule

September 5 - vs Navy - The Midshipmen went 8-5 last year and were tops among the Independents.  I like this game.  No, it's not a Top 25 opponent, but at least it's not a FCS team, or some 3-win team from the Sunbelt.  This is, at least, a respectable team and a better way to start the season than what a lot of their peers are doing.

September 12 - vs USC - This is the game that will decide how the Buckeyes will be perceived all year long.  The Trojans are still considered a powerhouse team.  Beat them and you've automatically gained a little respect.  Lose and it won't be until January that they'll get another chance to really improve on their image.

September 19 - @ Toledo - Here's that 3-9 team I was talking about, only Toledo's from the MAC West, not the Sunbelt.  Still, they were only 2-6 in conference play.  This won't do anything to help Ohio State's cause.  It'll just add a mark in the "win" column.

September 26 - vs Illinois - This could be a really interesting game.  Illinois could have an offense that could go punch-for-punch with the Buckeyes.  Maybe.  Will their defense be able to do the same?  Maybe.  This isn't a team the Buckeyes will want to take lightly...no maybe about it.

October 3 - @ Indiana - Assuming Illinois really is as good as I think they could be, and that Juice Williams isn't already washed up, this is the second "breather" in five games.  It's a good one to have on the road, since they probably should win it at either place.

October 17 - @ Purdue - The Buckeyes are hitting the light stretch of their schedule.  This is the time to work on anything they may still be missing before the real conference fight comes up.

October 24 - vs Minnesota - ditto what I said above.  Not that I'm trying to be disrespectful to Purdue or Minnesota, but I think both teams have too much rebuilding to do before they'll be ready to compete at OSU's level.

October 31 - vs New Mexico State - Another 3-9 team (1-7 in WAC).  I'm really disappointed in this game.  A team like OSU knows four to five years in advance what they're team should look like.  They should have known they'd be fairly strong.  Schedule tougher opponents than this.

November 7 - @ Penn State - I hope the Buckeyes didn't fall asleep during the month of October, because they're going to need to be fully focused for this one.  They're on the road against the 2008 Big Ten Champions and they haven't had a lot of stiff competition lately to prepare for it. 

November 14 - vs Iowa - If Ohio State beats Penn State, then this is a huge trap game.  Iowa won't be bad and the Buckeyes just might have it in their heads that they're cruising towards an undisputed conference championship.  On the other hand, if PSU prevails in Happy Valley, then the Buckeyes will be focused and furious when they host the Hawkeyes.  One thing I believe completely is that they'd better not take this game too lightly.  Iowa will be ready for it.

November 21 - @ Michigan - This has the potential to be like the rivalry of old.  I doubt very much that the Wolverines will be in the conference title hunt just yet, but they could be sufficiently improved to give the Buckeyes a run for their money.  I would go so far as to say that if Michigan faced ten opponents of OSU's talent, they'd lose to nine of them, but this is the Buckeyes.  This is their conference rival, and this could be for a decent bowl berth.  It could be real interesting.

Okay...so what

This isn't a terrible schedule by any stretch.  Obviously, the Buckeyes can't help what the talent level is within the conference.  What they can help, to an extent, is what kinds of teams they play out of conference.  I see some good and I see some bad where that's concerned.

I like the game against Navy.  The MIdshipmen may not be the same caliber as USC, but at least they're a team with a winning record.  I continue to applaud the Buckeyes for their deal with USC.  That's the kind of match that adds to your strength of schedule.  Of course, it helps if you win it, or at least keep it close. 

I don't like Toledo and I hate New Mexico State being on the schedule.  These teams aren't going to do anything to help the Buckeyes.  The only good thing is that neither of them are FCS teams.  That's about all that can be said about them from this standpoint.

I like the Illinois game at home.  Illinois could be just dangerous enough to derail the Buckeye season before it even really gets going.  I also like Penn State on the road and Iowa at home.  The PSU game could easily be for the conference title and Iowa could be a surprise upset if OSU's not careful.  Of course the Michigan game at the end of the season is tradition and I wouldn't have it any other way.  This year, it could be exciting again. 

Besides having Toledo and NMS on the schedule, I don't like the entire month of October.  Those are all games the Buckeyes should win.  In fairness, there's a chance Wisconsin could step up and be a threat, but I don't see any of the others being in the same league as Ohio State this year.  That doesn't do much to prep the Buckeyes for the Penn State match.  In fact, it's far too easy to become complacent. 

All-in-all, this is the toughest schedule in the Big Ten, thanks almost entirely to the September 12th game against USC.  Without that date, this is a pretty mediocre schedule.  No, the Buckeyes aren't facing any FCS teams, but Toledo and NMS may as well be for a team like the Buckeyes.  They miss MIchigan State and Northwestern - two teams who could at least push them, if not threaten to knock them off.  They've got all the toughest conference games at home, except the PSU game. 

Way too early prediction

I could sum the whole thing up in two sentences, but what fun is that?

Navy will be an interesting game.  They might even be able to keep it close with the Buckeyes for a half.  In the end, Ohio State will win it fairly handily.  If they don't, you might as well ignore the rest of these predictions.

I'm hoping the game against Southern Cal will be much better than last year.  Certainly, this will be a different Buckeye team facing them.  Pryor should be turned loose this year to run or pass (more run than pass, most likely).  There won't be any Wells this year, but there wasn't for last year's game either.  I don't know who will be carrying the rushing load yet, but I think it will be a totally different look and one that's more suited for Trojan football.  Still, I think USC will prevail in the end.  I'd like to be wrong about that, but I don't think I am.

Toledo should be a walk in the park.  So, OSU will be 2-1 when they start conference play, and probably ranked in the Top 25. 

Illinois is a tough call.  So far, what I'm seeing come out of Champaign, they believe they've got a better system built around Williams with a supporting cast that can help take some pressure off him.  They also seem to think that their defense will be much improved.  Will it be enough?  It might be, but I've already called this one for Ohio State and I'm not inclined to change it.

Indiana shouldn't provide too much challenge for the Buckeyes.

Wisconsin is a wildcard.  They could be better this year; maybe even much better.  Or they could be worse.  It's just hard to guess.  I'm betting on the Buckeyes,

Purdue shouldn't be much trouble.  Neither should Minnesota, nor Mexico State be.  So, the Buckeyes should be 8-1 overall, 5-0 in the Big Ten when they face off with the Nittany Lions of Penn State.

I've already chosen Ohio State to win this one.  The thing is, I've gone back and forth with that choice ever since.  After giving OSU's schedule a closer look, I've thought many times that they might not be in the right frame of mind for this game, or that they might build up a little "rust" over the month leading up to it.  Then again, PSU won last year at the Horseshoe, this could be a perfect time for them to reverse that by winning in Beaver Stadium.  Of course, if I were to change my mind and give this to Penn State, I'd have to pick someone else to beat the Lions because I don't see them going undefeated.  So, out of sheer laziness I'll leave this pick alone and keep it with the Buckeyes. 

Iowa could be an interesting game.  The Hawkeyes aren't generally thought of as being as tough as the Buckeyes.  Actually, Iowa has only beaten OSU like three times in the last fifty years.  That might be a bit of an exageration, I'm not looking at their stats right at the moment, but OSU has definitely had Iowa's number time and again.  Still, as I said above, if OSU comes into this one thinking they've already passed their toughest test, they could be shocked.  As much as I really want to call this in favor of the Hawkeyes, I can't.  Ohio State will win

That leaves Michigan.  The pieces are falling into place for Michigan to become the team Rich Rodriguez wanted it to be when he took the job.  I'm not sure enough of his players are in place to completely transform the Wolverines, yet, but they're getting there.  They should be sufficiently transformed to at least make this an interesting game, but in the end, the Buckeyes will prevail.

Final Talley:  The Buckeyes will be 11-1 overall and undefeated in the Big Ten.  That's my story, and I'm stickin' to it....until the season starts, anyway.  They'll go to the Rose Bowl unless, by some major miracle, they make it to the National Championship.  I don't see a one-loss Buckeye team playing for the big title though.

That's it for my look at the Big Ten schedules, and a very early prediction of their records.  Thanks to all who have commented on my posts.  I'll be back before long with more looks at these teams after the dust has settled on spring games.  Until then, here's to a good Big Ten 2009 season.

Penn State

Penn State had a "nearly" perfect season in 2008.  They were a field goal away from going to the National Championship game.  Well, at least they'd have been a very likely candidate.  Joe Paterno proved that he still has what it takes to coach in the FBS at the highest level. 

This year, the Lions will be replacing a few big names, but I'm not very worried about that.  They've still got a ton of talent and should be extremely motivated to build on "what almost was".  They could get a little help from their schedule, though.  A team like this should have enough stiff competition to prove themselves.  The conference will provide plenty of "winnable" games.  They don't need a lot of those out of conference.

The Schedule

September 5 - vs Akron - right away,  I don't like this.  Yes, a team wants someone they can beat up front so they can shake off the rust and get a feel for what they need to work on.  Still, this is beneath a team like Penn State. 

September 12 - vs Syracuse - This team has the potential to push the Nittany Lions a little, if they can get their act together a little.  I'd rather see this game happen right away on week 1, then move into much tougher competition.

September 19 - vs Temple - The Owls went 5-7 last year (4-4 in the MAC-East).  By now, PSU should be taking on ranked opponents.  I understand that you have to take what's available, but I hate this trend of "padding" the top of the schedule to get some wins, rather than facing tougher teams that might ruin a National Championship run right away.

September 26 - vs Iowa - Does Penn State feel like they've got a monkey on their backs where Iowa's concerned?  Not only did the Hawkeyes ruin their perfect season last year, but they've beaten Penn State 7 of the last 9 years.  This is one they've got to win; not just because a loss takes them out of the National Title hunt, but because they need to get past this whole Hawkeye curse.  Helluva way to open the Big Ten season.

October 3 - @ Illinois - It's hard to believe this is the first time the Lions will be venturing out of Happy Valley.  Illinois could be a very difficult test.  Penn State willneed to be fired up and ready to go for this.

October 10 - vs Eastern Illinois - What??  You're facing a FCS team now??  This is poor scheduling.  Penn State doesn't need this; not when you've got a team like they have.

October 17 - vs Minnesota - This should be a breeze.  If it's not, I'll be very surprised.

October 24 - @ Michigan - This is a trap game.  Penn State will be largely focused on three games: Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State.  If they don't pay attention to this one, a much improved Wolverine team could sneak up and bite them.

October 31 - @ Northwestern - Okay...this could be a trap game too, though I doubt Penn State will be as likely to overlook the Wildcats as they might be to overlook the Wolverines.  Northwestern will be improved over last year as well, and this is going to be a pretty exciting game.

November 7 - vs Ohio State - Sure, the Wolverine/Buckeye match has history.  It's a rivalry.  However, until Michigan truly gets everything in order and starts challenging for the Big Ten title, this is the game to watch.  Both of these teams should be the front runners for the Big Ten title, and this one could settle it all.

November 14 - vs Indiana - This should be a huge breather after the last three games.

November 21 - @ Michigan State - This game could look an aweful lot lack last year's match.  Who will trip up Ohio State?  Anyone?  If so, and especially if it wasn't Penn State, then this could be a match of two teams with one conference loss fighting for a bid to the Rose Bowl.  Or, it could be an undefeated Penn State squad trying to keep that streak alive for just one more game.

Okay...so what?


I don't think this schedule does Penn State justice.  The first three games are just weak, if you ask me, and that October date against Eastern Illinois is just horrendous. When you're sitting in Penn State's place, you've got to think about the strength of your schedule.  Teams like these don't help your cause.  Yes, you've got as many as four teams that could be ranked, but if you want to impress upon people that you're not just at the top of a weak conference, you've got to schedule some tougher competition outside of the conference. 

The Iowa game will be huge for both programs.  Iowa needs to show they're turning a corner, while Penn State needs to get a little revenge.  I like the Michigan game being on the road and I definitely like the Buckeye game being at home. 

The one thing that sticks out at me is that Penn State only plays four road dates and doesn't get the first one until week 5.  I guess that's a good thing for Lions fans.  They've got a very good chance of being nearly perfect at home this year. 

All-in-all, I think the schedule's a little weak.  Just one loss will be enough to knock Penn State down quite a ways in the rankings.  I'd like to see something a bit tougher.

Way too early prediction

The first three are gimme's.  Syracuse could maybe keep it close for a little while, but ultimately, I think all three will be walk-away wins.  Then comes Iowa.

Yes, Iowa has the advantage in recent history, and that program will be pretty tough again this year.  However, this one's in Happy Valley, and Penn State has all the reason in the world to take this game very seriously.  Penn State takes this one, but it'll be another nail-biter.

Illinois is a wildcard.  They could have a very explosive offense and a much improved defense.  That this is one of the road dates (the first, at that) is tough, but I think PSU will pull it out in the end.  Eastern Illinois coming to Beaver Stadium is just another gimme.  So, the Nittany Lions should be 6-0 to start their season, 2-0 in the conference. 

Minnesota will have some good moments.  They might even keep it close through the first half.  Penn State will pull that one out by at least 14, though. 

Michigan could be considerably more difficult.  It's a road game, and the team should be much more exciting than last year.  If Penn State's not careful, the Wolverines could ruin their perfect streak.  I don't think that'll happen, though.  I pick the Lions in a fairly close one.

I've got the same feeling about Northwestern.  It's on the road and they'll be pretty tough.  Actually, I think they might even lead Penn State going into the half.  It's the second half where the Lions will pick it up and set the Wildcats down.  That'll make Penn State 9-0, 5-0 in the conference, when they host the Buckeyes from Ohio State.

This is a tough one for me to call.  As far as overall talent goes, I think the Buckeyes have the edge.  However, this one is in Happy Valley, and the Lions want this pretty badly.  I think this one will be a back-and-forth battle right to the end.  Penn State fans aren't going to like this too much, but this is where I draw their perfect season to an end.  Ohio State will take the lead late in the 4th and hold on to win.

Indiana should be an easy win if the Nittany Lions aren't too let down from the Ohio State game.  I don't know that they can be let down enough to lose to the Hoosiers. 

Michigan State will be another wildcard game.  The Spartans are missing Ringer and Hoyer this year, so they'll have an all-new look and feel.  I still think they've got all the pieces in place to be a very tough team this year.  There could be a lot on the line for both teams when this one rolls around.  It's a "rivalry" game, and this time, it really could have the feel of a real rivalry.  I think the outcome will be pretty much the same as last year, though.  Penn State wins.

Final Tally:  This will look much like a repeat of last year.  Penn State will go 11-1 through the regular season, 7-1 in the Big Ten.  Whether or not they go to Pasadena is a question that can't be answered until the time comes.  If Ohio State has a better record, they'll go to another BCS bowl while the Lions try to avenge their loss last season to USC.  If not, then it could be the Buckeyes going to the Rose Bowl while Penn State gets a BCS bowl.  Or, one of them could go to the Rose Bowl while the other plays a non-BCS bowl.  That can't be predicted until we see what the rest of the country does.  Whatever the bowl picture looks like, Penn State will get a January bowl game. 

For that reason, I really wish Penn State was following the lead of some of their conference peers and scheduling games into December.  If the conference doesn't want to institute a championship, then the traditional bowl teams, at least, need to take it upon themselves to play a little later into the season.  I'm sure Penn State will represent the Big Ten well, whenever and whoever they play, but it sure would be nice to see them taking the field on December 5th.

Next up...and finally....Ohio State

Michigan State

Last year, the Spartans were playing for a spot in the Rose Bowl when they suffered a tough loss to Penn State in the season finale.  This year, they're looking to take that next step and get the bid.  Mark Dantonio thinks he's got the pieces in place to continue the Spartans' climb through the Big Ten.  He's going to have a little work in front of him, though.  Both Ringer and Hoyer are gone this year, so Sparty's going to have to come up with a new QB and a new RB in the same year. 

Michigan State still deserves a schedule that will showcase their talent and help propel them up the national ranks.

The Schedule

September 5 - vs Montana State - typical FCS opponent to open the season.  It annoys the crap out of me, but what do ya do?  Actually, this is a pretty good chance to work in the new offense before real competition starts.

September 12 - vs Central Michigan - I'd rather see someone a little more powerful here, but okay...still working out the kinks.

September 19 - @ Notre Dame - I like this one.  There's the potential for the Irish to be a decent team this year.  They also have the potential to stink.  I'm hoping for the former.  That would make this an interesting game and provide the Spartans with someone they can test their abilities against.

September 26 - @ Wisconsin - This could be a pretty good game.  Wisconsin thinks they can return to what they were supposed to be last year.  If so, this will be a very good game. 

October 3 - vs Michigan - This should be exciting.  This has always been a tough in-state rivalry, but since Michigan took such a horrible slide last year, it's taken on a new feel.  Sparty definitely wants to prove they're still the best team in the state.  Michigan needs to regain a little of their old swagger.  Should be a pretty good match.

October 10 - @ Illinois - The Illini will have an offense that will test the Spartan "D".  Michigan State will have to work to get past the Illini.

October 17 - vs Northwestern - Will look a lot like the week before.  The Wilcats will stretch the Spartans.

October 24 - vs Iowa - Hopefully, Iowa will be ranked by this time of the season.  Actually, there's a chance Northwestern will be too.  These two dates are where Michigan State can earn a little extra credibility; or as much as can be gained in the Big Ten right now.

October 31 - @ Minnesota - This could potentially be a pretty decent game.  I kind of doubt it, though.  I don't think Minnesota will quite be up to MSU standards yet.  It should be a good road win for Sparty.

November 7 - vs Western Michigan - I hate this.  I absolutely, positively hate it.  What's the point in this game?  This date is surrounded by two very winnable games (actually several winnable games), so it's not like they need a down week to recover.  They could do so much better than this at this point of the season.

November 14 - @ Purdue - This is another easy road win for the Spartans.  I don't see Purdue being ready for this game.

November 21 - vs Penn State - This is one of the toughest games for MSU of the season.  There's a decent chance Michigan State could be right back where they were last year: playing the Nittany Lions with a shot at the Rose Bowl on the line. 

Okay....so what?

Well, if the Spartans don't have a good year with this schedule, then Dantonio didn't put the right pieces to the puzzle together.  The Spartans don't have to face the Buckeyes and they get Penn State, Iowa and Northwestern all at home.  Illinois is probably the toughest road date they'll have all year long. 

Most of the schedule is very winnable.  Michigan could give them some problems if RichRod gets that program running closer to the way he wants.  The Illinois date should be pretty tough as will the Northwestern date right after.  Iowa should also be pretty tough.  Still, any of those are potential wins.  Then they'll get a nice three game stretch with Minnesota, Western Michigan and Purdue.  That shoudl be a pretty good stretch for them, before they have to face Penn State.

All-in-all, I'd like to see some tougher opponents up front; particularly, I'd like to see some ranked teams on the schedule.  There's a chance that Illinois, NW, and/or Iowa could be ranked, maybe even all three, though I doubt it.  They'll just need to do the best they can with what the've got, and go for big wins.  I hate running the score up, but that's the only way to get noticed these days, so run it up boys.

Way too early prediction

Montana State and Central Michigan should be fairly easy wins for the Spartans.  Notre Dame has the potential to be a solid opponent, but I'll still give this one to MSU, so they should be 3-0 when they start conference play.

Wisconsin could be pretty tough too, and that one's on the road, but I've already given this one to the Spartans and I see no real reason to reverse that.  Michigan is the big question mark in my book.  It's as much a mental issue as anything.  It's a rivalry game, and I think Michigan will be good enough to make a solid game of it.  I've already called this one for the Spartans too, and will stick to it.  Going to Champaign will be a tough test.  Illinois will definitely stretch out the Spartan "D".  I'm just not confident that they can stretch it enough to score consistently.  I'll stay with the Spartans on this one as well, though I'll admit I'm not over confident in it.  That makes the Spartans 6-0 overall, bowl eligible and 3-0 in the Big Ten.

Then comes Northwestern.  The Wildcats should give the Spartans all they can handle.  Still, I like Sparty to knock off NW to go 7-0 (4-0).  Then comes Iowa.  Honestly folks, this isn't just a homer pick.  I like Iowa in this one.  I think MSU comes in a little too confident, and Iowa will have already suffered a lost by this point, just adding to that confidence.  I think this is Iowa's big "upset" win of the season.  MSU will bounce back nicely against Minnesota, though to 8-1, 5-1 in the conference. 

Western Michigan may be a pretty decent team, but they're not that decent.  The Spartans will plenty focused for that game, as well as their trip to Purdue the following week.  Then comes the season finale against Penn State.  Once again, it could be entirely possible that a Rose Bowl berth may be on the line.  That, of course, is assuming Illinois, Penn State or Iowa can upset Ohio State somewhere along the line.  I think those are the only teams that can.  I still don't think Michigan State will get past the Nittany Lions, even if it is at home. 

Final Tally:  Michigan State will go 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the Big Ten and get a great bowl game.  Hopefully, this time they'll pull off a bowl win and help bring a little respect back to the Big Ten Conference.  There are plenty of games here that could go either way, but I think a 10-win season is within reach of these Spartans.

Next up....Penn State

Iowa

Well, there's no secret that I've been waiting anxiously to write this article.  Hawkeye fans are frothing at the mouth for this season to kick off.  They know how oh-so-close Iowa really was to greatness last season.  The four games they lost were by a total of 12 points....12....points.  In most of those cases, just one or two plays could be pinpointed as the ones that ruined a perfectly good win.  Still, the Hawkeyes went to Florida and destroyed South Carolina in their bowl game and made a few people sit up and take notice along the way.

Coming into this year, I've been reading over and over again about how Iowa will be hurt by the loss of Shonn Greene to the pros.  In my opinion, Shonn Greene was one of the best backs to ever donn the black and gold; possibly the best.  But don't let that make you think Iowa's due for a big slide.  Greene's presence carried an offense that needed to gel and find some consistency.  This year, I believe they'll have that consistency, and just in case they don't, they still have Jewel Hampton, who had an impressive 5.1 yards per carry in substitution for Greene.  And, though the defense is missing a couple of key men up front, they're getting back a ton of talent in the linebacking corps and secondary.  Plus, the D-line is rarely a big issue for Iowa.  When one leaves, another steps in.  That's just the way Norm Parker rolls. 

Iowa needs a schedule that will help reflect their ability.  There won't be nearly the number of turnovers to haunt them this year.  The rookie mistakes should be over with.  Now they need a schedule that will offer enough tough dates to gain them some respect, and enough named opponents to draw some attention around the nation.

The Schedule

September 5 - vs Northern Iowa - Normally, I'd hate the Hawkeyes playing a FCS team at any point in the season.  This one I like.  First, because UNI made the semi-finals in the championship tournament last season, so they're pretty good as far as FCS teams go.  Second, I like the idea of getting a little more money and attention being thrown to UNI.  They're a good program, and they deserve some love. 

September 12 - @ Iowa State - The Cyclones could be much improved this year.  I doubt it, but they could be.  It really doesn't matter if they are or not.  Every time the 'Clones and the Hawks get together, it's a pretty good show.  The home team has been the winner more often of late than not.  I don't like that for the Hawks, but this is definitely going to be a tough opponent for them - as always.

September 19 - vs Arizona - I love this game.  LOVE it.  'Zona went 8-5 last year and Coach Mike Stoops thinks their defense will be better than last year.  They appear to have several choices for their new signal caller, and all are getting good reviews so far.  I don't know that the Wildcats will be a ranked opponent when the Hawkeyes face them, but they should be good enough for people to take notice.  I like this being at Kinnick, though.

September 26 - @ Penn State - Welcome to the start of the Big Ten season!  PSU fans have been looking forward to this date for a while now.  The Hawkeyes single-handedly ruined any hope they had at playing for a National Championship, and they haven't forgotten it.  They may not hold a grudge, but they still want a little payback, and this one's in Happy Valley.  Just remember...Iowa's beaten Penn State 7 of the last 9 years.  Hmmm...

October 3 - vs Arkansas State - The Indians were 6-6 last season, 3-4 in the Sun Belt.  I don't know what they have in the works for this year, but this should be a nice recover weak for the Hawks.  That's assuming they need to recover.  It should be a nice home win...how 'bout that?

October 10 - vs Michigan - Iowa has only managed to beat Michigan three times in the last fifteen times they've faced one another.  Of those wins, only one of them came at home.  However, the Hawkeyes haven't faced the Wolverines since 2006, and this is most definitely not the same Wolverine team.  Will they be better?  I think yes.  Just how much better, is always the question.  I like that this one's at home.  It could be a very exciting game.

October 17 - @ Wisconsin - The Badgers are another of those monsters that could rear their ugly head this season and wreak havoc on the best laid plans.  If Iowa gets past Michigan, this could be a trap game.  I like it.  On the other hand, Wisconsin could just be bad again this year, in which case it really shouldn't matter. 

October 24 - @ Michigan State - Tough road game, but a respectable one.  The Spartans should be having a pretty decent season, and may be ranked.  For a team like Iowa, I like ranked opponents, I don't care whether they're on the road or at home.  If the Hawks want to gain respect around the nation, they've got to beat the tough teams, even on the road.

October 31 - vs Indiana - I've said in practically every article that Indiana will be improved, just not enough.  It's the case again here.  Iowa's going to be pretty decent and it'll be at Kinnick. 

November 7 - vs Northwestern - This one is another great one.  Iowa needs a little revenge for last year.  They should have beaten the 'Cats.  They need to make it clear that they should have beaten them.  This time, its in Iowa's house, and Iowa doesn't let many people beat them in their house (only twice in their last 10 home games and three times since the start of 2007). 

November 14 - @ Ohio State - It kind of stinks that Iowa has to play both Penn State and Ohio State on the road, but it is what it is.  Like I said before, if you want the respect, you've got to win the tough games, even on the road.  This could potentially be for Big Ten supremecy, or it could simply be to decide who goes to what bowl.  It could be an opportunity for the Hawks to knock another Big Ten team out of the National Title hunt. 

November 21 - vs Minnesota - Gopher fans, I'll spare you another reminder of last year's game.  Iowa has had Minnesota's number 7 of the last 8 years by an average score of 39-22.  I'm not sure that Minnesota will be in any position to really challenge that history.  It's a rivalry game, though, and there have been some fantastic games between these two squads. 

Okay...so what?

I like this schedule.  No, I really like this schedule.  It might be a little better if they had a couple more ranked opponents on the docket, but it's not bad.  Northern Iowa is a "weak" opponent, but not as weak as some might think.  They'll be tough enough to give Iowa an honest test, but shouldn't be tough enough to knock the Hawks off.  The Cyclones are nearly always a tough opponent.  Plus, it's tradition, and a tradition you just don't mess with.  There's a long-shot chance that Arizona could be ranked, depending on what they do in the first two weeks and what happens around the nation.  It's highly unlikely, but not impossible.  Either way, that should be a good game against an opponent people know well.  It offers exposure, and that could be a very good thing.

The second quarter is very nice with a road game at Penn State that should be very tough, and home dates against Arkansas State and Michigan.  While ASU may not be too tough, the Michigan date should be tough enough to make Iowa earn it. 

The Hawk's third quarter is very similar.  Wisconsin could be easy, or could be tough.  It's on the road which adds an another element to the game.  Michigan State will certainly be tough and it's also on the road.  Then, the Hawks get to come back home to face an Indiana team they should be able to beat handily. 

The fourth quarter is best, in my book.  Iowa gets a revenge game against Northwestern, at home, then travel to Ohio State to take on the Buckeyes.  No one should consider that to be easy for either team at this point.  Finally, they get their "rivalry" game against Minnesota in front of the home crowd. 

All-in-all, the season offers some new faces that the Hawks haven't seen in a while (Arizona, Arkansas State and Northern Iowa), some really tough opponents, some nasty road dates, and some nice, very winnable games at home.  It'll give Iowa plenty of opportunity to gain some respect and put together a strong season.

Way too early prediction

Would anyone blame me if I made some homer picks?  You would?  Okay, I'll try to be fair.

Northern Iowa shouldn't be too much trouble for Iowa.  I see that game being close for maybe the first half.  I have a lot of respect for the Panthers, but the Hawks should be head-and-shoulders better than them, and will pull away fairly early.  Iowa State might pose some problems.  You never really know what to expect when the Hawks and Cyclones tangle.  Still, even though this one's in Ames, I think the Hawks are just better than the 'Clones this year and will keep the Cy/Hawk Trophy in Iowa City.  Arizona is a wildcard in my opinion.  They run the spread offense, but will still be breaking in some new players; particularly a new quarterback.  Plus, Iowa didn't do too badly against the spread-O's they faced last year.  These Wildcats may give the Hawks quite a test, but I think Iowa brings home another win.  That will make them 3-0 when they travel to Happy Valley.

I mentioned above that Iowa has had pretty good success against JoePa's Lions.  There's just something about the Hawks that thwarts PSU.  I don't know for certain what it is, but I like it.  However, we can't get too comfortable with history.  The Hawks will definitely have to work their tail feathers off to beat Penn State.  As much as I hate to, I'm going to call this one in favor of Penn State....and I really hate to.

Arkansas State should be a win.

Michigan is going to be an intersting opponent.  I already gave this one to the Hawks, and I stand by that.  I do think this will be a pretty exciting game, though.  I don't think Iowa will pull it out until late in the 4th quarter.  That'll make Iowa 5-1 overall, 1-1 in the Big Ten.

Next is Wisconsin.  It's entirely possible that Wisconsin will figure out what caused their inability to tackle and the inconsistency of their offense last year and do something about it.  Being in Madison certainly helps their cause.  Still, I think Iowa gets this one.  Coach Ferentz knows how Bielema thinks, and I think he'll outsmart him on this one.

The showdown at Michigan State could be a really exciting one too.  It should be.  I think Sparty will be pretty tough again this year and will be looking for a Rose Bowl bid.  Iowa will give them all they can handle.  They won't have just one man to key on (Shonn Greene) this year, and they'll be missing their own rushing dynamo (Javon Ringer).  Last year's game was one of those narrow losses for Iowa.  It'll be extremely tough, but I like Iowa's new offense to take this one. 

Indiana just isn't going to be up to par, yet.  I stress yet.  I do think they're going to be tough enought to cause some headaches in just another year or two.  I think, when Iowa takes their pads off after this game they'll be 8-1 overall, 4-1 in the Big Ten.

Northwestern brings a whole new challenge.  They'll be quick and their defense will be improved over last year.  Iowa, on the other hand, will be very confident after knocking off MSU and following that up with a big win over Indiana.  Actually, I think they'll be too confident.  I think the Wildcats of Northwestern will come in and humble Iowa a little in their home stadium.  In my Northwestern piece, I picked Iowa to win.  I'm changing my mind.  This one goes to the Wildcats.

The Ohio State game should be interesting.  Iowa hasn't had a lot of luck where the Buckeyes are concerned.  OSU has had some fantastic recruiting classes and will undoubtedly be very near the team they were a year ago, if not better.  There will be good reason for Iowa to show up with guns blazing for this one though.  IF Ohio State is able to get past Penn State in Happy Valley the week before this game, they'll have, not only the inside track to the Rose Bowl, but potentially could still be in National Title talks.  I'm not certain I'll pick them to get past USC early in the season, but, as last year showed, it may not matter.  That means Iowa can come to town and try to play spoiler.  Unfortunately, I don't think that'll happen.  Iowa will be good, but I don't think they're OSU good yet.  Still, they could make a pretty good showing of it.  It would be better for them if this was at home, but even then, I'm not sure they could get the win.

Last comes the ol' rivalry with Minnesota.  The last few years, Iowa's had the upper hand.  Last year's game was a hard-hitting affair - just what you want in a rivalry game.  Unfortunately for Minnesota, the scores just weren't coming their way.  They've got some rebuilding to do, and I struggle to think they'll be much improved this year.  I think next year is more likely.  Iowa will get this win at home to close out their season. 

Final Tally:  Iowa will go 9-3 overall and 5-3 in the Big Ten.  I'd like to say that Iowa will have a 10 win season, but I can't; at least not in the regular season.  With OSU, PSU and MSU all on the road, it's easy to think they could get two losses right there.  Iowa should've beaten both MSU and Northwestern last year, but didn't.  I can see them getting revenge on one of those teams, but I'm not so convinced that they'll get it on both of them.  Still, with a 9-win season, the Hawks will get another January bowl date.  Maybe this time they'll get an opponent worthy of facing off against them.

Next up....Michigan State

 

By the way, I got my information on Iowa's history from:  http://www.gazetteonline.com/section/iowafootballhistory