The Western Conference playoff race has become a battle of epic proportions. 5 games separate the # 1 seeded Los Angeles Lakers and the # 8 seeded Golden State Warriors. In years past, a 50 win season would all but guarantee a playoff birth. The Denver Nuggets (37-26) are on pace for a 48 win season but as of today, they would miss the Western Conference playoffs entirely.

It's unclear where San Antonio, Los Angeles, New Orleans, and Utah will finish in the standings but I'm fairly confident think each will make the playoffs.

I think Houston, Phoenix, Dallas, Golden State, and Denver will battle for the 4 remaining spots.

I'm already on record as predicting the Suns will miss the playoffs. Hopefully this blog will better explain why I believe that to be true.

3rd seeded Houston Rockets 43-20 0.683

The Rockets have won 19 games in a row, the seventh longest winning streak in NBA history, 7 of those wins coming after losing Yao Ming to a season ending injury. If Houston can continue their stellar play on defense, Tracy McGrady is capable of carrying them offensively.

The Rockets are 23-13 in conference play. Houston has 19 games remaining.

Of those 19, there are 8 key conference games, and 1 key non-conference game:

Wed 12 @ Atlanta
Fri 14 vs Charlotte
Sun 16 vs LA Lakers
Tue 18 vs Boston
Wed 19 @ New Orleans
Fri 21 @ Golden State
Sat 22 @ Phoenix
Mon 24 vs Sacramento
Wed 26 vs Minnesota
Sun 30 @ San Antonio
Tue 01 @ Sacramento
Thu 03 @ Portland
Fri 04 @ Seattle
Sun 06 @ LA Clippers
Wed 09 vs Seattle
Fri 11 vs Phoenix
Sun 13 @ Denver
Mon 14 @ Utah
Wed 16 vs LA Clippers

7th seeded Dallas Mavericks 41-23 0.641

The Mavericks have 9 key conference games remaining but they also have the easiest remaining schedule when calculating their opponents winning percentage.

The Mavericks are 26-12 in conference play. Dallas has 18 games remaining.

Of those 18, there are 9 key conference games and 1 key non-conference game:

Wed 12 vs Charlotte
Fri 14 vs Indiana
Sun 16 @ Miami
Tue 18 vs LA Lakers
Thu 20 vs Boston
Sun 23 vs San Antonio
Tue 25 vs LA Clippers
Thu 27 @ Denver
Sun 30 @ Golden State
Mon 31 @ LA Clippers
Wed 02 vs Golden State
Fri 04 @ LA Lakers
Sun 06 @ Phoenix
Tue 08 vs Seattle
Thu 10 vs Utah
Sat 12 @ Portland
Sun 13 @ Seattle
Wed 16 vs New Orleans

8th seeded Golden State Warriors 39-23 0.629

The Warriors are putting up an NBA best 111 points per game. They're also giving up an NBA best 108 points per game.

The Warriors are 20-13 in conference play. Golden State has 20 games remaining.

Of those 20, there are 11 key conference games:

Wed 12 vs Toronto
Thu 13 @ Phoenix
Sat 15 vs Memphis
Tue 18 @ Sacramento
Wed 19 @ LA Clippers
Fri 21 vs Houston
Sun 23 @ LA Lakers
Mon 24 vs LA Lakers
Thu 27 vs Portland
Sat 29 @ Denver
Sun 30 vs Dallas
Tue 01 @ San Antonio
Wed 02 @ Dallas
Fri 04 @ Memphis
Sun 06 @ New Orleans
Tue 08 vs Sacramento
Thu 10 vs Denver
Sat 12 vs LA Clippers
Mon 14 @ Phoenix
Wed 16 vs Seattle

9th placed Denver Nuggets 37-26 0.587

The Nuggets average nearly 108 points per game. They give up nearly 105. It's difficult to take a team seriously when only one of its players attempts to play defense (Marcus Camby). The Nuggets ended San Antonio's 11 game win streak Friday night and lost to the Jazz by 20 + the next night. Such are the Nuggets.

Since George Karl became the coach of the Nuggets they have gone on a late season run in two of the past three seasons. Something tells me history is about to repeat itself.

The Nuggets are 21-17 in conference play. Denver has 19 games remaining

Of those 19, there are 10 key conference games and 1 key non-conference game:

Wed 12 vs Memphis
Fri 14 vs Toronto
Sun 16 vs Seattle
Tue 18 @ Detroit
Wed 19 @ Philadelphia
Fri 21 @ New Jersey
Sun 23 @ Toronto
Mon 24 @ Memphis
Thu 27 vs Dallas
Sat 29 vs Golden State
Mon 31 @ Phoenix
Tue 01 vs Phoenix
Sat 05 vs Sacramento
Sun 06 @ Seattle
Tue 08 @ LA Clippers
Thu 10 @ Golden State
Sat 12 @ Utah
Sun 13 vs Houston
Wed 16 vs Memphis

6th seeded Phoenix Suns 42-22 .656

The Suns were the Western Conference's # 1 seed before they acquired Shaquille O'Neal. They have gone 5-6 since Shaq's arrival.

The Suns are 20-18 in conference play. Phoenix has 18 games remaining.

Of those 18, there are 8 key conference games and 2 key non-conference games:

Thu 13 vs Golden State
Sat 15 vs Sacramento
Tue 18 @ Portland
Wed 19 @ Seattle
Sat 22 vs Houston
Mon 24 @ Detroit
Wed 26 @ Boston
Fri 28 @ Philadelphia
Sat 29 @ New Jersey
Mon 31 vs Denver
Tue 01 @ Denver
Fri 04 vs Minnesota
Sun 06 vs Dallas
Tue 08 @ Memphis
Wed 09 @ San Antonio
Fri 11 @ Houston
Mon 14 vs Golden State
Wed 16 vs Portland

I was ready to count out the Rockets after Yao went down but they're playing so well defensively that T-Mac's top-notch offense gives them a chance to win every night. Jason Kidd is too good on both ends of the floor to allow the Mavericks to slip out of the playoff picture. Golden State has too much heart. I think Denver is about to go on one of their patented end of the season runs.

That leaves -- the Phoenix Suns.

The Suns have won 2 straight since I predicted them to miss the playoffs but of the 5 teams I've listed, Phoenix has the most difficult remaining schedule. The Suns have shown the ability to play physical half-court defense but the subtraction of Marion and addition of O'Neal has made the Suns a terrible defensive team in transition.

I think the bottom two seeds will be determined by Phoenix, Golden State, and Denver. The Suns are two games up on the Warriors and 4.5 games up on Denver. The team that ends up in that 8th spot may do so by virtue of a tiebreaker. Four of Phoenix's eight remaining conference games are against Denver and Golden State. The Suns are down 0-2 in their season series with the Warriors. Phoenix holds a 1-1 tie with the Nuggets and plays them back-to-back at the end of this month.

Those four matchups will be crucial. Due to their poor transition defense and the fact that Denver and Golden State are the two best running teams in the league, I don't think Phoenix is capable of tying their series with Golden State or winning their season series with Denver. In addition, Phoenix has 2 more games against Eastern Conference super-powers Boston and Detroit. Boston will be playing with a chip on their shoulder to avenge a sloppy loss to Phoenix earlier this month. With Chauncey Billups and Rasheed Wallace running the pick-and-roll to perfection, the Pistons are a bad matchup for Shaq and the Suns. Detroit defeated the Suns by 30 points on February 24th. As has been his custom over the past decade, Coach Greg Popovich will have his Spurs rolling on all cylinders when they come to town on April 9th.

Not to mention two more games against the hottest team in the NBA -- the Houston Rockets.

Given Phoenix's season long struggles against the Western Conference, their poor transition defense, and the teams left on their schedule that are capable of exploiting their weaknesses, I don't think the Suns will make the playoffs.