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Two things guaranteed to start a fight in any college town bar that's worth visiting:
1) Conference strength.
2) Schedule strength.
Most
of the time the two are related but over the next four weeks the
majority of the games we'll watch will be the dreaded and erratic
non-conference games. Some are good match-ups, most are not but they
will be used as argument fodder throughout October and November to
determine everything from national title contenders to a coach's future
to my personal worth (nice work this year, Nebraska).
But if
there's so much riding on these games that really don't determine who
eventually gets to the BCS bowls, shouldn't we look at which teams and
conferences have done the best job scheduling out of conference from a
fan's perspective in 2007? Yes, we should. That's why I created the
Compelling Scheduling Index or CSI (oh, I get it...it's quite clever).
I went through each BCS conference team and scored their schedule using
the following criteria:
5 Pts. - Any Game vs. Top 20 Win% Last 15 Years (BCS only) -
The best games are the big ones between big programs, Cal-Tenn.,
USC-Nebraska, VT-LSU, but games like this are scheduled years in
advance. When USC-Nebraska agreed to a home and home Nebraska was USC
and USC was Nebraska in terms of talent and ranking. Now it's the
inverse. By using win percentage over the past 15 years
I tried to account for that lead time. And sorry Toledo and Boise
State, you qualified in terms of winning percentage but you're just not
as compelling as Wisconsin or Penn State. BCS only.
4 Pts. - Any Game vs. Top 40 Win% Last 15 Years (BCS only) -
The second tier. Keep in mind we're looking at successful programs over
the last 15 years so there are some surprises here. While playing
Alabama or West Virginia will always look impressive, based on their
results over the past 15 years it's traditionally been less difficult
than playing Kansas State or Oregon.
3 Pts. - Any BCS Team -
Even seeing Northwestern play Duke is more intriguing than seeing
Northwestern play Northeastern. At least Northwestern and Duke are
working with similar resources. I do, however, like that symmetry in
the Wildcats home opener.
2 Pts. - Rivalry Games -
If you play a team every year you're not actively going out and
scheduling them but a team should get credit for keeping that tradition
alive. Therefore, Georgia Tech doesn't get a full five points for
playing Georgia but they do get two for not dodging them in favor of a
creampuff.
1 Pts. - Any non-BCS team on the road - If one of the Goliaths is willing to play a David on their home turf I'm interested.
-3 Pts. - Any 1-AA Opponent
- I understand the reasoning behind these games, easy win, easy money
for all involved, but fans hate these games. I can't reward big time
programs for showering sacrificial lambs with money. Simply put, no
making it rain on them foes in the CSI.
The Curious Case of Notre Dame -
The Irish are still an Independent so I'm sure they won't mind being
left out of my survey because their entire schedule is non-conference.
For match-ups against USC, Michigan and Michigan State the game was
scored as a rivalry game for those schools.
After totaling up
each schools non-conference schedule, I divided that number by the
number of non-conference games played to reach a CSI PPG score. This
accounts for the fact that the Pac-10 only plays three such games while
the Big East plays five.
The conference total was determined by
adding the raw scores for each school and simply dividing by the number
of teams in the conference.
With that out of the way, let's get to the results. You can see the entire spreadsheet here.
The Top Teams
0.
Duke - You should know that Duke scored as high as any team in the
country with games against UConn, Northwestern, at Navy and Notre Dame.
However, no game involving Duke is compelling so now that you're aware,
disregard this score. Cheers to the Blue Devils for scheduling up,
however.
1. Washington - A classic case of the ambiguity we're
working with here. Washington receives no points for playing Boise
State, but they get four points for playing Syracuse. Fair? When they
made the schedule it probably was. Throw in Ohio State and factor in
the shortened Pac-10 non-conference schedule and you have your top team.
Tie
2. Miami and Florida State - They may not be what they once were, but
these two will still play anyone anywhere. Between the two they'll play
Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Colorado and Alabama. Congrats, but
tell me again how Florida State is going to be resurgent this year?
4.
Syracuse - Could be another long year for the Orange with games against
Washington, Iowa, and Illinois. Yes, those teams are mostly down right
now but Louisville and West Virginia aren't playing them.
5. USC - Nebraska and Notre Dame, simple as that. Pete Carroll has never dodged anyone.
Tie 6. Colorado & Wake Forest
8. Nebraska
9. Iowa
Of
course the big question here is where's the SEC? LSU scored at the top
of the conference with a CSI PPG of 1.5 based largely on their game
against Virginia Tech. Outside of that, it's pretty slim pickings in
the Southeastern.
The Conference Breakdown
Based
on the top 10 teams above, you could've probably guessed that the ACC
scored the highest of the BCS conferences. The totals are below:
1. ACC - 5.08
2. Pac-10 - 3.58
3. Big 12 - 3.16
4. Big East - 3.08
5. Big 10 - 2.00
6. Southeastern - 1.33
You
might be skeptical of a system that ranks Duke as the team that
scheduled the best this year and the SEC as the conference that did the
worst but keep in mind we're not talking about schedule strength,
rather trying to determine which teams went out and actually scheduled
opponents with a pulse. Every team in the SEC except LSU will play a D-1AA opponent this season.
Are
you interested in watching those games? Me neither. I'm also not that
interested in seeing Duke play anyone but at least they're trying and
that's the case CSI set out to solve.
Case closed?
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Being Overrated is Underrated
Thursday, August 23, 2007, 10:55 PM EST
[General]
 In case you missed it, Nebraska is the 5th most overrated team of the past 10 years. What does that mean? Not a whole hell of a lot but let's talk about it anyway.ESPN went to the trouble of conducting a survey that looked at the last 10 years of preseason poll rankings versus final AP poll rankings when they simply could've gone here and not had to do anything, but that's not really the point. The point is, in the most literal sense, I guess this method can determine whether or not a team was over or underrated. Technically, because Miami started the 2002 season as the AP #1 and finished as the #2 they were overrated. Failures. Or maybe the Hurricanes didn't fail. Just maybe it was the pollsters fault. Is it possible that Miami was, perhaps, incorrectly rated to start? Who knows? This whole process deals in absolutes and if I were more intelligent I would know whether or not the "survey" was wrecked by some sort of logical fallacy or just sheer stupidity. But, bear with me know, that's still not my point. While we're riding the roller coasters and eating corn dogs here in Hypotheticaland, let's take a day and head over to What If World (I think it's like a Disney-Universal package deal sort of thing): Suddenly you're flush with cash and you decide to do something no great men or women do today--found a university. Now if you're like me you would give this school the most selective admissions requirements in the world because it doesn't matter if what you're teaching is any good if people can't get in more people will want to get in. That's step one, but step two would be creating a top notch football program at Your Last Name U. Ten years later, the program is up and running. Would you rather have your program mentioned alongside: Group A: FSU, Tennessee, Washington, Miami (Not OH), Ohio State, Nebraska, Florida Michigan, Texas, Clemson. OR Group B: Washington St, Boise St, Oregon, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Louisville, TCU, Boston College, Iowa, Maryland. If you're on the fence, Group A has eight national titles and Group B has zero and here's where the totally obvious reveal comes in: Group A is comprised of the 10 most overrated teams of the past 10 years!! Can you believe it? When you consistently start the season in the Top 5 there's not a lot of room to move up, but there's a ton of room to move down. Basically what this survey reveals is which programs are respected on a national level and which ones aren't. If you follow college football at all you know that the one thing fans want is RESPECT. They want it from you, they want it from message board trolls and, most of all, they want it from the national media. It's more effective, and possibly more important, than that wacky way we determine the national title. So what we know now is that teams in the underrated group probably have a legitimate gripe, but we also know that teams in the overrated group are right where they want to be. My only hope for the next 10 years is for Nebraska to overtake Florida State as the most overrated team in the country because that will mean Nebraska is back to being just another overvalued team...at the top of the polls. Perception is reality. (Ed. The graphical accompaniment to this post in no way implies that Elvis was overrated. Rather, crappy art is overrated. Also, as this is a blog it is entirely obvious that I am the sole author of this work and operating without editorial assistance but I like parenthetical insertions from editors. This is a decision I will continue to make.) Tags:
Trendkilling - Area Codes
Friday, August 10, 2007, 05:25 AM EST
[General]
I'm not sure if this is a new addition or not. He may not have had it last season but I am sure he'll have it next season...and the season after that...and the season after that, etc. which is too bad because I'm officially declaring this whole area code trend dead. Yes, for 2007 ZIP codes are the new area codes. As best I can tell, nobody is on board with this yet but they'll come. Once we get Darren McFadden on board the rest of college football should follow like Felix Jones on the speed option out of the Wildcat set. Now, one of my ultimate pet peeves is people who are ashamed of where they're from and the Reggie Bush-led trend of using your area code to represent regional pride is basically the antithesis of that. The problem, however, is that when you get right down to it, area codes just aren't that specific. For example, the entire state of Nebraska, all 77,358 square miles of it, has only two area codes. Back when Bush was shredding defenses and shoving quarterbacks over goal lines, I was quite fond of writing 308 in dry erase marker on my glasses each day before work. Problem was that all of my Boston co-workers, most of whom are intimately aware of western Nebraska geography, would frequently ask me if I was from Kearney. I am not. I grew up over 300 miles away from Kearney. All we shared were those three little digits. Since I've adopted the ZIP Method all of those questions have gone away. Five digits, highly specific. Every town with a post office has their own special number and cities are meticulously divided as well. If you're an urban dweller you can't quite get to the exact street you live on but you can get a lot closer than you can with the officially passe area code. And if five-digits aren't specific enough there's still hope. While the NCAA will likely argue over the +1 format for years to come, the USPS has been utilizing the +4 format since 1983 and if the Postal Service can be more more progressive than the sport's governing body, don't you think you can be a bit more visionary than your average blue-chipper? Tags:
5 Things You Should Never Wear to a College Football Game
Tuesday, August 7, 2007, 08:56 PM EST
[General]
No fancy intro here, lists were made to be listed so let's get to it...
5 THINGS YOU SHOULD NEVER WEAR TO A COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME  1. A foam corn head: This category really applies to any foam rubber piece of headgear made using a mold (Wolverines, Hogs
and Gators included), but I'm sad to admit that my own Cornhusker
faithful are by far the most egregious offenders here. Now I love corn
more than a starving pilgrim in the middle of his first New England
winter and I take it in all its forms--on the cob, in the can, with
milk and on the rocks--but I don't ever want it higher than my lips. A
big ear of foam corn makes a piece of cheese look like haute couture.2. Camouflage: I understand the appeal here. When you're out fighting the elements and engaging in the thrill of the hunt you want to let your prey know what hit it. There you are in the blind and a succulent duck, your duck, takes flight. Boom! The hound hauls it back and you and your hat scream "War Eagle baby!" That's great if you're carrying a rifle, but if you're heading to the game the school colors should be fine.  3. Overalls of any color: Clemson
seems to be Public Enemy No. 1 when it comes to Crayola-colored
coveralls. All that rubbing the rock is dirty business. But as garish
as this orange
is it may actually be better than these striped numbers which are
available in just about every color combination you can imagine. But
just because they're in your team's colors doesn't mean you should take
advantage of that option. Some things you can't unsee and some things
you can't unwear. These overalls are both.4. A visor: Are you a Heisman Trophy winning, 5-time SEC Coach of the Year with six conference titles and one Sears Trophy? No? Then get that half-assed hat off your head. It takes a lot of hard work to get to the point where you can simply answer the phone with, "Yeah, this head ball coach." No question of which ball coach, no need to even ask for him by name. There is only one. If you've achieved that level of success in your chosen field, then you can consider the visor part of your wardrobe. If not, well, you're probably better off that way anyway.  5. Stadium Pants: Nothing says I'm an asshole like these pants and you'll only pay $135 to broadcast that very fact to everyone within shouting distance.I suppose this is a natural progression, first you get some pants with lobsters all over them to prove you probably don't ever sail boats, and that's not so bad. Nobody laughs directly in your face. But then you wake up in a bush six hours after a game some Saturday and find Colonel Reb in places you never thought possible. It happens just that quick. I'm not quite sure which would be the more potent combination, stadium pants with a visor or coveralls with the camouflage, but I do know that both of those outfits are worn by thousands every Saturday and that doesn't even include the foam heads. Luckily--well not really luckily more like thanks in large part to me--you won't be one of those people. Gratuities are welcome and appreciated. Tags:
I Wish I Was in Dixie
Thursday, July 26, 2007, 07:49 AM EST
[General]
We're pretty lucky in Big 12 country when it comes to football. The entire experience--quality of play, traditions, fan fervor, tailgating opulence--is pretty high. The SEC, however, is at an entirely different level.
Take for example, their media days. Comparing conference strength is often a useless exercise, and trying to do the same with media days is no better. You'll find the SEC at the top there too. Nobody has the characters, the joie de vivre that they do down in Birmingham right now, and there are still two days left! Check out this quote from Steve Spurrier: "I thought we had done something when we beat Clemson, but then Kentucky beat them in a bowl game." (Hat tip: EDSBS) You see that? You see what he did there? Spurrier not only slammed his natural, blood-feud, non-conference rival he also got a dig in against a fellow conference foe. Brilliant! Not sure why it was Kentucky. Tennessee always used to be the Head Ball Coach's target and they're still pretty appealing in my mind. In contrast, here's what Bill Callahan had to say about being picked behind Missouri: "Personally, no, I don't agree with it. But I love our football team and I think they're capable of doing some great things... ...So I don't want to take anything away from Missouri, and I certainly don't take anything away from any of the competitors in the Big 12 North, as I was telling the writers out there earlier, hope springs eternal for everybody at this time of year. And it's going to be competitive. It's going to be fun and it's going to be interesting to see how it all shakes out." But that's not fun is it? No digs were delivered, no egos bruised in the name of competition and I'm not saying that's wrong, it's just much less interesting. It's the difference between being from the Midwest and being from the South, that's all. I don't write about the SEC in such terms very often, but I'd die to be there for this event. Luckily, AL.com is and if that's not enough coverage, you can also check out the SEC website. And don't think that because Spurrier's already taken the mic that the fun is over. We still have Nick Saban, Les Miles, Phil Fulmer, and, of course, the immortal Ed Orgeron to go. I know the video is old, but I'll take every opportunity I can get to post it again because, well, it's funny. Take it away Coach O... Tags:
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