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It always hits the fan when I'm away for a football Saturday. After starting 8-2 in Week 1, HPSWBT kissed its sister in Week 2 at 5-5. Using spotty airport Internet service, I will now attempt to make 10 picks before my computer craps out...
TCU @ USAFA (+8) - Hell hath no fury like a Horned Frog scorned.
West Virginia @ Maryland (+16.5) - A bonus IDGOOSBITC pick! Here's hoping Freidgen remembers the pasting WV put on the Terps last year on Thursday.
Arkansas @ Alabama (-3) - Saban's
first big test and I'll give him the benefit of the doubt at home. Be
prepared to hear from a lot of 'Bama fans if they win here.
Boston College @ Georgia Tech (-7)
- It's unfortunate that the two best teams in the ACC have to meet in
Week 3. I like the Jackets quite a bit but something seems to be
brewing with this Eagles team.
Louisville @ Kentucky (+6.5)
- There might not be a more fun game to watch this Saturday. If the
Wildcats are serious about contending this year they need to beat a
Cardinals team that looked more than vulnerable last week.
USM @ ECU (+1) - Pirates come crashing back to earth after their first win over UNC in 30 years.
FSU @ Colorado (+4) - Are these programs headed in different directions? I don't see any reason to take the 'Noles here especially on the road.
Toledo @ Kansas (-21.5) -
The Jayhawk juggernaut keeps on rolling. Toledo gave up 52 points to
Central Michigan last week. The Chippewas gave up 52 points to Kansas
the week before that, therefore KU 104 Toledo 0.
Wyoming @ Boise State (-12.5) - Getting back to the wild blue yonder will mark the beginning of another streak for the Broncos.
USC @ Nebraska (+10) - Biased? Absolutely but I have to believe.
Last week: 5-5
Year to Date: 13-7
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Ahead of the Game - HPSWBT Week 2
Thursday, September 6, 2007, 04:48 AM EST
[General]
The HPSWBT compiled an 8-2 record in Week 1, Nebraska looked dominant in their opener and Michigan is out of the Top 25. All is right with the world.
Due to work conflicts I wasn't able to watch as much football as I would've liked last Saturday, but has that ever stopped me from throwing out a pick or two? Never. The good news is I'm heading for the hills for this weekend's Wake-Nebraska match-up then meandering over the next week to Lincoln for USC-Nebraska. Starting on Friday, it's nothing but college football which, really, is the way it should always be. And, for the record, the goalposts won't come down after Nebraska beats the Trojans. Not on my watch. I can't even believe we're talking about this. Act like you've been there before. (Fair warning, that last link is an audio link so have your volume adjusted accordingly.) ___________________________________________________________ Oregon St. @ Cincinnati (+3.5) The very definition of the IDGOOSBITC pick is to generate a rooting interest for a game in which you have none. Do I really like Oregon State here? Not really, but in a seeming toss-up I'll take a team that can run the ball even on the road. Sure Cincinnati has former Demon Deacon Ben Mauk spreading things out and throwing for 300 yards last week but the Bearcats also gave up 175 yards rushing to FCS SEMO. Should be a tight game, but I think Oregon State can control the ball so that's where I'm going. Look at that, I have a rooting interest come Thursday. Go Beavers! Alabama @ Vanderbilt (+3.5) I could be very wrong but I'm making a Saban play here. I'm not willing to believe in Alabama simply after a 52-6 win over Western Carolina, not yet, but they have a lot less history to overcome than Vanderbilt does. The talent deficit at Alabama will be their ultimate undoing down the road in the SEC this year but this weekend is not that week. Boise State @ Washington (+3) Can we officially invite Boise State to the Pac-10 now? They're favored on the road against U-Dub. Everybody is high on Jake Locker after 265 total yards last week. Of course, that was against Syracuse, perhaps the worst BCS conference team in the country. Still, I'm willing to take Ty Willingham with a promising yet unproven QB and the points at home. Virginia Tech @ LSU (-12.5) This number is going down?! How? Sean Glennon looked awful against ECU last week so how is he going to fare against Bo Pelini's marauders? I'll be everything I have that VT doesn't score an offensive touchdown. Fresno St. @ Texas Ag. & Mech (-17) This isn't the Fresno State of three or four years ago, but they still have Pat Hill and the Aggies were still out gained on offense last week by FCS Montana State (i.e. D1-AA...see, I'm trying to adapt to the times). Dennis Franchione had this to say after the game, "We're not Michigan tonight." Does that inspire confidence in anyone? Me neither. TCU @ Texas (-9) The worst thing to happen to the Frogs last week was Texas looking unimpressive against Arkansas State. Does anyone really think that the Longhorns 21-13 win last week exposed some major deficiencies? Not yet. Not in week two. TCU is a quality squad with a salty defense that should only get stronger with the probable return of Tommy Blake but I can't believe Mack Brown will let the eyes of Texas wander off his Longhorns for long. California @ Colorado State (+14) Forget for a moment the home field advantage. How is Cal, clearly the superior team in the Pac-10, less of a favorite against CSU than Arizona State is over a Colorado team that just beat the Rams? The Golden Bears defense will be good enough again in the foothills. Good enough against USC? That remains to be seen. Missouri @ Ole Miss (+6) For one half Ole Miss looked pretty decent. Defensively, Missouri never looked decent. If not for Pig Brown and some fortuitous turnovers courtesy of the Illini the Tigers would've been looking at a long road and a must-win against Nebraska to crack the Top 25. Now they're supposed to win in the SEC? I don't care if it's the Rebels, I don't see any reason to lay the points on the road. La. Tech @ Hawaii (-28) I normally hate these huge spread games but I don't really see a better one on the board. Hawaii should be up 21 points by the time Louisiana Tech steps off the plane. Colt Brennan and his Hawaii head will take care of the rest. Nebraska @ Wake Forest (+8) This early in the season, my fortunes will ride with my team. Add in the fact that Riley Skinner likely won't be there and Nebraska did nothing to dissuade me with their performance against Nevada and I'll be rooting for more than a win Saturday in Winston-Salem. Last Week: 8-2 Year to Date: 8-2 ___________________________________________________________ Further Reading: There are a number of intriguing lines this week that I can't quite bring myself to take a stand on. I'm still not sure how the Sun Deveils are two touchdown favorites against a Colorado team that everyone says was way better than 2-10 last year...I'm not certain Miami is quite ready to go into Norman and win, but Sam Bradford will find the going considerably tougher against the Hurricanes...Jimmy Clausen may not survive Saturday's game against Penn State, but something is still holding me back from hammering the Nittanies, namely their offense...South Carolina didn't win anyone over with last week's performance against the Ragin' Cajuns, but on the road against Georgia seems like the sort of situation Head Ball Coach lives for...Is South Florida really a touchdown better than K-State right now? According to the wise-guys they are. I'd love to take the Bulls here...we'll find out what Kentucky is made off this week against Kent State; historically aren't Lexington and Ames about equal when it comes to football? Tags:
The Morning After the Morning After - Week 1
Sunday, September 2, 2007, 07:54 PM EST
[General]
It's tough to take much away from week one wins against your traditional menu of cupcakes. Every impressive performance is tempered by "but they played _______". Still, overvaluing a good day against a bad team is better than trying to assess what happened in Ann Arbor. That might take months. Today, we'll just start with the weekend that was...
The block heard 'round the world. How much more is there to say about Appalachian State? The most amazing thing to immediately come out of their win was this little tidbit from Yahoo! Sports: 0 people playing in all of Yahoo's college pick'em games picked the Mountaineers. Zero. There wasn't one ASU alum who wanted to goad a Wolverine in his group? Not a single unabashed homer?
That's I'm confident doing that because when everyone in the country started asking the question Saturday afternoon there wasn't one readily available game to refute the claim. Dan Borst listed the top 10 upsets for FOXSports.com, ranking ASU-UM #3 but, without looking, which two games beat it out? Pete Fiutak claimed that Temple's 1998 win over Virginia Tech was bigger, but how many people remembered that immediately after the sky fell at the Big House? Quite simply, college football didn't have that one David v. Goliath game that everyone could recall. Now they do. Formerly easier to say. From a national perspective the biggest issue to come to light in the Appy State aftermath was not scheduling or Lloyd Carr's future or poll position but rather how ridiculous the whole 1-AA/Football Championship Series naming swap truly is. Every single story on Saturday had to use the phrase "formerly 1-AA" to describe the enormity of the upset because the FCS/FBS distinction wasn't ever an issue prior to this. But now that we all have had the opportunity to read and work with it, we can officially toss the "formerly 1-AA" tag, ignore the unwieldy Subdivision and just go with the abbreviations. Thank you Appalachian State for ending our long national nightmare. Simple. Effective. I don't know why I was watching Idaho-USC late Saturday night given the sure blowout that awaited, but I'm glad I was because I was able to see one of the best tributes to a teammate in recent memory. After scoring their first touchdown of the season the Trojans lined up for the extra point without their kicker in tribute to Mario Danelo. They took the delay of game and displayed as much class in 25-seconds as you're likely to see all season. The Red River Rivals. The Big 12's two heavyweights opened in the opposite fashion of what I would've predicted on Saturday night. Texas, who returns nearly all of their major offensive talent from last year, put up a head scratcher beating Arkansas State 21-13. Meanwhile Oklahoma, who simply had to start a new QB and replace Adrian Peterson, dropped 79 on North Texas. SEC v. Big 12 a judges decision. Georgia looked impressive in shutting down a speedy Oklahoma State squad, limiting the Cowboys to 266 total yards, but Auburn was outplayed for most of four quarters against Kansas State. I felt coming in that both Georgia and Auburn were overvalued a bit but now I only feel that way about one team. Additionally, Ron Prince will get Kansas State turned around. Considering their tumultuous fall camp, having a realistic chance to win at Auburn in the final two minutes was nothing short of masterful. Still no 'D' in Mizzou. Yes, Missouri put up 429 yards of total offense but they had to after allowing 435 to Illinois who was running with their back-up quarterback. If not for five Illini turnovers Missouri loses this Arch Rivalry game and Gary Pinkel is already hearing the boos. The Trajan font shan't be topped. Kansas is going to be a factor in the Big 12 race, believe it. I saw a number of people picking the Jayhawks to lose to Central Michigan and their 14 returning starters. Final score? 52-7 KU. Consider yourself warned.
Glory Days. After one game Hawaii is leading the nation in passing yards. No surprise there, but the number one rushing team in the country is...Nebraska? Is this 1995 again? I was so amused by this that I nabbed the screen shot to your right just to remember what it felt like. We didn't get to see the mythic right arm of Sam Keller, but getting 233 yards on the ground out of the Marlon Lucky (the nation's leading rusher!) and another 70 or so from true freshman Quentin Castille probably answered the more pressing question for Nebraska--can they run the football? The answer is yes...against Nevada. Tags:
Tumbling Dice - HPSWBT Week 1 Picks
Thursday, August 30, 2007, 07:05 AM EST
[General]
 It's the day I've waited for almost all of 2007 for: the reconvening of the Hi-Plains Sports Wagering Brain Trust (HPSWBT). It's a small group of like-minded individuals, visionaries really, who like matching wits with the best college odds makers in the world. Right now it's just me, the ghost of Steve McQueen in character as the Cincinnati Kid, and that Canadian dude that Philip Seymour Hoffman played in that movie. Phil Steele continues to apply and continues to be rejected.
This is the third year of HPSWBT and for those of you unfamiliar with our method you can find a full explanation here or just read the abbreviated version below:
Last year we finished 75-60-4, highlighted by a 7-o start on our special "I Don't Go Out on Saturdays Because It's Too Crowded" picks, abbreviated IDGOOSBITC. We're also fond of acronyms.
Let's get started... LSU @ Miss. St. (+17.5) Why wait to take a Thursday night game you really don't like but want a rooting interest? I really want to take the Bulldogs here with the points at home, but I can't quite make myself do it. Maybe if Croom made the Tigers wear purple (psychological advantage!) I could but, unable to confirm that, I think Mississippi State might actually be this bad. Texas Tech @ SMU (+8) I'm tired of hearing how awful and unevenly split the Big 12 is right now. The conference isn't worse than the Big East (Colin Cowherd). It isn't the 5th or 6th ranked conference in the BCS (Tim Brando). It is, however, the conference with the most intriguing slate of games on opening weekend as you'll soon see. The Red Raiders haven't lost to SMU since Bush Sr. was in office, winning each of the past 11 games by double-digits which, the ghost of Steve McQueen tells me, is more than eight. Baylor @ TCU (-21) The Frogs will win this game just not by that much. You have to figure the Bears can score at least twice which should be enough. CSU v. Colorado (-2.5) The Buffs need this game with a roadie against ASU and Florida State at Folsom in weeks 2 and 3. Colorado State has 18 returning starters but Dan Hawkins has questions of progress and nepotism to answer which, I believe, is called motivation. Mizzou v. Illinois (+4.5) The most shocking line of the week (sorry Hawaii). I know the Illini should be better this year but they're still young and they're still a team that's won eight games in the last four years. Missouri is the fashionable pick for the Big 12 North and, from what I've heard, could average 25 points per game playing only with their tight ends and Chase Daniel on offense. Four and a half points? Kansas State @ Auburn (-13.5) The only thing worse than picking Kansas State is having to root for them but given everyones dim view of the Big 12 I think I have to. Few teams have had a more tumultuous fall camp than KSU but I think Prince can ugly this up enough to keep it close against an Auburn squad that should be less than explosive with the ball. Oklahoma St. @ Georgia (-6) This line keeps going down, down, down and for good reason. Georgia returns a mere four starters on defense and they're facing a potent Okie State offense. This is a big game for both programs, OSU is on the come and could open some eyes here while Georgia is hearing echoes of being overrated early on. Should be a good one and should be an outright win for OSU. Tennessee @ Cal (-6) Erik Ainge's pinky problem only strengthens this play. Asking a team with 11 new starters to go on the road and beat a top 15 foe seems like a bit much. Keeping it close might be a challenge. Kudos to the Vols for scheduling this home and home, however. Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame (-2.5) Let the nightmare begin for Notre Dame! That's more wishful thinking on my part than actual prognosis. Part of me thinks Chuck Weis might pull a win out of his hat here, but the part of me that likes to see ND lose is larger. Nevada @ Nebraska (-21) I thought this number would be a little lower but what can you do? Under Callahan Nebraska has won their season opener by an average of 32 points but Nevada is easily the best team they've played to start a season thus far. The game plan will be vanilla but Nebraska should be physical enough to dictate play on both sides of the ball. Football season is upon us...enjoy! Tags:
America's Team?
Wednesday, August 29, 2007, 05:33 AM EST
[General]
 Only in college can the comedic styling of Will Ferrell and the chronic *cough* chicanery of Snoop Dogg represent the whole of American culture, but that's what makes that period of your life fun: it's wildly irrational and wholly uninformed.So maybe I shouldn't blame U.S.C. linebacker Brian Cushing for his comments to the New York Post a few days ago. They were wildly irrational and wholly uninformed, but I'm here to help him with that. Cushing had this to say in the story: We're America's Team. The best players want to come here. The tradition is amazing. Everyone wants to play us. People love to be around the program. I mean, there are celebrities at every practice. Like, totally. I understand how the sight of Nick Lachey can make you a little starstruck, but America's team? Could the high ratio of celebrities to grad assistants at Trojan practices perhaps be a product of their location? L.A. loves a winner and forgets everyone else. It's a town that runs on yesterday's news, eternally searching for the next big thing. U.S.C. is that thing now--in L.A.--but there are a couple million college football fans everywhere else in the country who absolutely salivate at the thought of seeing U.S.C. lose. College football is the best sport in America because this notion of universal popularity doesn't exist. It's a regional sport played on a national stage. Fans are tied to their schools in a way that can't be achieved with a pro franchise. Every Saturday there's much more at stake than a simple win or loss, the pride of a specific people and place, a local ethos, is on the line. And, I'm sorry, but L.A. will never do that as well as places like Athens and Norman and Morgantown, cities and towns we know because of college football. U.S.C. can claim right now to be the best team in America and get only a small argument. One day away from the first games of the season, that's the consensus. But claiming the mythical title of Amerca's Team? The rest of the country will have something to say about that. Adam Duritz and Larry the Cable Guy are celebrities too. I think. Tags:
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