You don't need to call the Holiday Inn to find sleepers, look no further than this blog right here. These are the players who make and break your team, which is why you have to not only find the sleepers, but understand what production to expect and what round they are worthy of being picked in.
A player like Anquan Boldin or Chris Cooley were surprises last year (I had both in one league), but they are not worth as much if you bypass other players and take them too early. Just like in real life, no one likes a man who is a quick draw.
Quarterbacks
Snoozers
Jake Delhomme, Car. Bye Week: 9
He is working with the top fantasy receiver from a year ago (Steve Smith) and the acquisition of Keyshawn Johnson can only help. He is tied for the 4th highest TD passes in the last 3 years (Matt Hasselbeck) and only had 2 games without throwing a TD last season. Expect another season of about 25 TD's and 14 INT's with a lot of consistency from week to week. If you want a QB to be your cornerstone, don't draft Jake, but if you want one who won't lose you games, he is just as good in fantasy as he is for Carolina.
Billy Volek, Ten. Bye Week: 7
Volek's chance has arrived and with David Givens joining Drew Bennett, Erron Kinney, and Ben Troupe; the Titans will have more options in the passing game. Expect the Titans to be playing from behind, which always is good for garbage points (think Kurt Warner). Volek owns as many 300 yard games (3) as David Carr and Mark Brunell over the last 3 seasons and he has only started 10 games in that time. He can likely be found late or even on the waiver wire, but his upside as a backup is higher than most. Vince Young will be looking over his shoulder though, from the sidelines! (didn't expect that one, did you?)
Losers
Daunte Culpepper, Mia. Bye Week: 8
Everyone has developed amnesia since Culpepper's trade to Miami, forgetting about his struggles last season. He averaged less than 1 TD a game and threw twice as many INT's (12) as TD's (6). Let's not forget he tore all 3 knee
ligaments, an injury that requires a minimum of 2 years to properly heal, so don't expect much of a running game from an already tentative Culpepper. He has been drafted as early as the 4th round under the belief he will return to his 2003 numbers (3,500 yards, 25 TD's, 11 INT's), which is as likely as Joey Harrington playing the piano at halftime of the Super Bowl featuring the Dolphins and the 49ers.
Donovan McNabb, Phi. Bye Week: 9
Losing T.O. will help McNabb regain his hearing, but those downfield throws that went against the principles of the West Coast offense are a thing of the past. Reggie Brown will continue to progress, but expect numbers more Fred-X than T.O. L.J. Smith and those legendary Rocks of Gibraltar he calls hands are the closest thing Donovan has to a primary option. With no running game, no receivers, and less of an inclination to run; Donovan McNabb will get somewhere in the neighborhood of 22 total TD's and 3200 passing yards, not worthy of the 5 or 6 round pick that it takes to get him. Superman returns, but in a less dazzling fashion than in the movie (which was excellent by the way).
Running Backs
Snoozers
Warrick Dunn, ATL. Bye Week: 5
Small backs are frowned upon, but Tiki Barber showed last year the effectiveness that one can have. Dunn racks yardage like ribs and makes the most of his touches, averaging 5.1 YPC last year. If Duckett is traded at some point or just put in the doghouse next to Snoopy, then Dunn's TD totals would increase, the only thing that is keeping him from elite status. He is capable of big reception numbers, but so might every other Falcons receiver if Vick learns that passing involves completions as well as attempts.
Frank Gore, SF. Bye Week: 7
Putting up 3 times as many TD's as your quarterback is an amazing feat, unless your quarterback only threw 1 TD pass last year. Still, Gore managed to average 4.8 yards a carry even though they ranked dead last in passing yardage. Kevan Barlow seems to have lost the favor of the coaches and Gore is a more aggressive inside runner, thriving on contact. With that offensive line in front of him, he'll receive more contact than a Braille music book on Stevie Wonder's shelf.
Chester Taylor, Min. Bye Week: 6
Unluck Frank Gore, Taylor should be expected to be a fantasy starter and possibly the surprise of the running back
group. Brad Childress' offense features short passes to RB's and Taylor is similar to Brian Westbrook in that he can break a run at any time. Don't be fooled, Mewelde Moore will see less play then Demi Moore and Childress tends to use only one back in his offense. A 1,000 yard season with 7 to 8 TD's are not out of the question and reception-heavy leagues should value him even higher.
Losers
Julius Jones, Dal. Bye Week: 3
Any team that has T.O. on it see less rushing TD's so Owens can get his numbers. Jones though, has to deal with the threat of Marion Barber III, who outperformed Thomas' younger brother. He is being drafted as a #2 back, but he is losing goal-line carries to Barber and Parcells may put a larger emphasis on the passing game with T.O. in town and as we all know, Owens shares his star with no one.
Kevin Jones, Det. Bye Week: 8
Another Jones, another bust. Did anyone ever notice the way rushing yards and TD's went down when Martz took over the offensive duties of the Rams? If you thought Jones had limited TD opportunities now, wait until the Williams brothers are catching 3-yard TD passes. His per carry average dropped over a full yard and Jones is not known as a good receiver. At least now people can blame Martz in addition to Matt Millen when they lose 12 games this year.
Reuban Droughns, Cle. Bye Week: 6
Any feature back at this size should not only manage 2 TD's, regardless of the offense. With Kellen Winslow Jr. returning and Joe Jurevicius joining the team, there will be even fewer opportunities for Droughns to cross the white line. With Droughns, you will see him beating women more than you will an opposing fantasy team, which is becoming all too common these days *cough* Brett Myers *cough*.
Wide Receivers
Snoozers
Reggie Brown, Phi. Bye Week: 9
T.O. is finally gone and McNabb is going to have to throw to someone. Brown showed the most promise, particularly
in the second half of the season after T.O. was suspended. A downside to the offense is the way they spread the ball all around the field, but that may keep the double coverage off of Brown. After the failed Fred-X experiment, the fans will be asking Philly "What can Brown do for you?"
Joe Horn, NO. Bye Week: 7
Another player who is affected by amnesiac fans. Horn is just one season removed from an 11 TD 1400 yard campaign. The emergence of Donte Stallworth will scare some, but Drew Brees isn't known for his vertical passing. Their best possession receiver is Horn and someone has to go over the middle for Brees, as evident by his days in San Diego. Plus, Brees likes his older receivers (McCardell) which is better than having a thing for younger dudes.
Javon Walker, GB. Bye Week: 4
Let's remember that the last elite receiver who had this kind of injury (Anquan Boldin) returned after a full season to post 103 receptions. Now, Walker is not the possession receiver that Boldin is, but Walker is the better red-zone target, which is a necessity since the Broncos lost their only goal-line back in Mike Anderson. Javon has had a full season to recovery, so expect his numbers to rival those of his top 10 peers. The "Flyin Hawaiian" has been grounded and the self-proclaimed "Greatest Receiver on the Planet" will give Shanahan the big target he has missed since Easy Ed's retirement.
Losers
Deion Branch, NE. Bye Week: 6
For a guy who hasn't had a 1,000 yard season in 4 seasons being drafted as a #2 fantasy receiver qualifies as a part of the Tom Brady effect. Anyone who is associated with him goes up in value instantly, making believers out of the uninformed. Fact is that Branch's career high in TD's is 5 and David Givens is no longer there to keep the double teams to a minimum. Branch is also holding out, wanting a new deal, so his status for the start of the season is uncertain. Just do like a tree and branch him alone (wait, that can't be right).
Roy Williams, Det. Bye Week: 8
Seeing him get drafted before the likes of Plaxico Burress, who had nearly twice as many yards, qualifies Williams as over-valued. His physical tools are not in question, but he is as durable as a Pinto in a fender bender. The quarterback situation has improved with the additions of Kitna and McCown, two players with successful starting experience. Mike Martz's arrival can only help also, but I'm guessing he won't be able to help Williams' health issues, I mean, look at him!
Steve Smith, Car. Bye Week: 9
How is Smith rated as the top receiver and Santana Moss is downgraded for the same reasons (size, additions at WR). Smith most likely will have a good season, but will not qualify as the top receiver off the board and a first round pick. Keyshawn will take away from Smith's TD total ultimately. The Seahawks showed teams the way to limit Smith, making him fight off physical play at the line and keeping a safety from letting him go deep. Smith should be drafted as a #1, just not as THE #1.
Tight End
Snoozers
Jerramy Stevens, Sea. Bye Week: 5
The knee injury will scare off some owners, but don't let it scare you. With Jurevicius gone to the Browns, Hasselbeck will need a tall target for those red zone passes he gets when Shaun Alexander needs a coffee break. His yardage will likely stay near last year's total (554), but after scoring 5 TD's during Alexander's record season, an increase to 7 or 8 is likely, vaulting him into a borderline starting status. Finally, someone who sees him as a starter after those 4 drops in the Super Bowl.
Kellen Winslow, Cle. Bye Week: 6
Even though everyone sees him as a potential sleeper, he still goes late,
having gone in the 12th round in a recent draft I participated in as a solid reserve. With Braylon Edwards also returning from injury, anyone can come in as the #1 option as Charlie Frye hasn't developed a rapport with a receiver. He has good hands and even if he lost some speed, will still be able to gain separation with his large frame. That's what soldiers do, they fight back!
Losers
Tony Gonzalez, KC. Bye Week: 3
I've had him on my team in the past, but this year won't be one of them. His value is too high for a player with only 2 TD's last year and the emergence of other TE options. Tony G is still picked within the first 4 rounds as the 2nd TE (Gates) taken overall. Cheaper options are available in Shockey, Cooley, Witten, Crumpler, and Heap; all of whom will have very similar numbers by season's end. The days of Gonzalez dunking on the goal post are becoming fewer and farther between.
Vernon Davis, SF. Bye Week: 7
Alex Smith threw 1 TD last year, enough said. I'll say more though, as Davis is the most athletic TE to come out since Kellen Winslow, but smarter. There is no OL on this team, which may force Davis to do a lot of blocking, severely hurting his value. Look on the bright side, maybe San Fran will do some gadget plays with Gore or Bryant throwing the ball to Davis.
Kickers
They are all the same, just pick one.
Defense
Snoozer
Seattle Seahawks, Bye Week: 5
The team led the league in sacks (50) and added Julian Peterson this offseason to slide in next to Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill. Losing Hamlin and Dyson will hurt, but Michael Boulware and Mike Green will take over the safety spots will limited recourse. If their interception numbers increase, then they will be a top 5 defense.
Loser
Baltimore Ravens
They continue to lose players and their INT went from 21 to 11 behind their makeshift secondary. Samari Rolle was regularly burned and Ed Reed failed to make a difference without a Strong Safety making plays next to him. The addition of Trevor Pryce may help, but Ray Lewis' contract demands might get in the way. He is asking for a $50 million signing bonus, or over $1 million per tackle last year.