At this point of the NFL season most people are already making their final decisions on who they believe to be the league's MVP, if they haven't already done so at this point.  There are several factors that go into deciding who should receive this honor, but normally what ultimately seperates one player from another is if the player was the best at his position, had big numbers, and helped his team win more than any other player.  The latter of these three should be the most influential factor in determining the league's MVP.  Sure numbers are nice, and saying you led the league in rushing or receiving yards at the end of the season are great accomplishments.  However, in the end it doesn't add up to being the MVP unless your presence or absence dramatically changes the position your football team would be in and its likelihood of success.

This year, most have focused on the great years being enjoyed by Carson Palmer, Shaun Alexander, LaDanian Tomlinson, Steve Smith (Though he has cooled down a bit as of late), and the seemingly perennial MVP candidate, Peyton Manning.  All of these guys have had great years to say the least.  Palmer has completely turned around the Bengals franchise, already leading them to their best record since Boomer Esiason was at the helm in his prime.  Shaun Alexander can still possibly break Priest Holme's single season TD record and his Seahawks appear to be the class of the NFC.  LaDanian Tomlinson can do it all, and has thrown more TD passes this year than some QB's currently starting for NFL teams.  Steve Smith is having a great year accounting for a great deal of Carolina's offense, and Peyton Manning is well, to put it as John Madden might say, "Doing the things that Peyton Manning does."

Peyton Manning, and some of the other guys mentioned above who have had great years in the past as well, may be the favorites for the title of MVP for this season.  But one player who isn't mentioned above, and who rarely is mentioned as a MVP type player, may just be the MVP of the NFL over the last three year period.  A player that is more vital to his team's fortune or misfortune than any other player.  That player is Atlanta Falcons quarterback, Michael Vick.

Before you start calling me a homer, or about how over-rated Michael Vick is as a quarterback, just look at the most important stat in existence to a sports team, win-loss record.  Since the start of the 2003 season, the year that Vick had a bad run-in with a Baltimore Raven in the pre-season and missed almost the whole year, the Atlanta Falcons have gone 22-8 when Vick is their starting QB, and 2-13 when he is not in the lineup.  During that 2003 season in particular the Falcons went 2-10 to open the season without Vick, but won three out of their last four when he returned. 

Now sure he has room to improve to say the least.  His completion percentage isn't where you would like for a starting NFL QB's to be.  He has been an injury risk due to his exciting style of play, and can be turnover prone at times.  However, most defensive coordinators name Vick as the player that causes them the greatest worry because of his big play ability, as well as the being the hardest player in the NFL to prepare for because of his blazing speed.  When he does hit his passes they are normally for big gains because everyone has to cheat up and prepare for him to take off and run one to the house at any time, which is why he leads the NFL in yards per completion this year. 

But as mentioned before, his team's win-loss record differential is the telling factor here.  Take away Peyton Manning and the Colts would not have home field advantage, but with Edgerrin James, those talented wide-receivers, and a defense very talented at generating pressure and creating turnovers, they would most likely be in the playoff hunt.  C.Palmer has been greatly helped by Rudi Johnson and Chad Johnson, and the Bengals were at least a .500 football team without Palmer.  Both are recognized as being far better quarterbacks than Vick.  But Vick is the more valuable football player to his team.  He makes everyone around him much better than they could be without him.  With no Vick, the Falcons would be completely out of it, and maybe even in the cellar of their division.  Hopefully for the Falcons sake, and the hopes of their fans who want to see them make the playoffs, tonight's blatant and illegal hit on Vick that took him out of the game will not linger into next week and cause him to miss any time.  If you want wins, then you need Vick.

Here we are, poised to watch week 14 action get under way in the NFL, and though there is the usual chatter involving who will and will not make the playoffs, there are two topics that seemingly dominate the waves of sports talk radio and the internet at this point in regards to the NFL.  The first of course is whether the Colts can remain undefeated and complete the perfect season, becoming only the second team in the history of the NFL to do so, and more importantly, getting those old Dolphins vets to stop ridiculously popping the champagne bottles every year when a 7-0 or 8-0 team loses.  Far too often this discussion is started prematurely whenever we have a team win their first five or six games, but at 12-0, the Colts have definitely put themselves in a position to be recogonized as serious contenders to accomplish the feat.  Its a great story, and its understandle why so many are paying so much attention to it.  However, the other news story dominating the air waves, one that I feel has gotten under way a little prematurely, is none other than who is going to finish last and get the opportunity to land Reggie Bush with the first overall pick in next April's draft?

Now don't get me wrong.  I am a very big fan of the odds-on-favorite to win this year's Heisman Trophy.  Bush is a very exciting college football player capable of excelling at so many different positions in an uncanny manner.  He is undoubtedly the best running back to come out of USC since Marcus Allen, maybe even since the Juice. Once he enters the realm of the NFL he is sure to immediately join Michael Vick, LaDanian Tomilinson, and Peyton Manning as one of the most exciting players in the league to watch, or at the very least, have that expectation of excitement to start with unless he follows in the misfortunate footsteps of some of the great college football players who were unable to produce the same results at the pro level and then fall into obscurity.  I do not see the later of those two scenarios happening and assuming USC's star running back declares himself eligible for the 2006 NFL Draft after USC plays in the Rose Bowl next month, he will most definitely be the odds-on-favorite once again, except this time it will be as the number one pick overall. 

Exciting and as talented as Bush is however, it would be a mistake for whichever team ends up finishing with the worst record in football to take him first overall simply because he is such a gifted and highley coveted player and they happened to end up with the first overall pick.  It would be down right foolish for one of the several likely candidates in particular that could end up with the first pick to select him, and that team is the Houston Texans.  There are still four games for each team to play in the 2005 regular season and there is no real way of telling who exactly will end up with the first pick for certain at this point, just one of the reasons why I feel the topic of discussion to be a bit premature, but since the Texans would get the first pick if the season ended today, and they are indeed one of the main teams being discussed along with the New York Jets, the San Francisco 49ers, and the Green Bay Packers as teams likely to get the top pick, you have to consider the possibility.  In fact, you would be hard pressed to hear any of those teams mentioned at this point in the season unless it was about their possibility of winning the Bush Sweepstakes. I will elaborate on why the Texans should withdraw themselves from the race now and concentrate on trading down and not on spending a high pick on Bush, or his teammate Leinart either for that matter.

The problem with the Houston Texans is not at running back, nor at quarterback.  Entering the season the Texans could look back and see improvement in their win-loss record every year since coming into the league.  Dominick Davis, David Carr, and Andre Johnson made great strides last year, and the Texans were believed to be on the verge of possibly becoming a playoff caliber team.  Unfortunately for the franchise it was a very poor offseason.  The Texans failed to do anything to improve the team's most glaring weakness, its offensive line.   

Running back is definitely not the problem area on this football team.  Dominick Davis has rushed for over 1,000 yds in each of his two previous seasons with the Texans even with all the offensive line problems, not to mention the Texans signed him to a big contract just this year.  He is a dual threat back with some of the best hands at his position in the entire league.  Given the opportunity to play in a balanced offense and not having to deal with a stacked box against him on almost every down due to the Texans passing woes, he can be a very successful runningback.  Some may point to the injuries that caused him to miss a couple of games both this year and last and criticize him for a lack of durability, but that is one of the same concerns some have about Bush himself, and Davis has always bounced right back.  Bush may be a bigger talent than Davis, but Davis is more than capable of being a star running back himself, and in some circles (Fantasy Football Leagues that award pts. for receptions), he already is.  Putting Bush in the backfield will not turn this team around.

So what do the Texans need to do and who should draft Bush among those other teams if they end up with the first pick?  The most obvious choice for the Texans would be to trade down and select Virginia OT D'Brickashaw Ferguson, a tackle that some have put in the same class as an Orlando Pace or a Johnathan Ogden.  Auburn's Marcus McNeil and Cal's Ryan O'Callaghan are other possibilities available even a little farther down in the draft if the Texans want to address the need for a quality TE like Marcedes Lewis or Vernon Davis.  The Texans also need a quality number two WR to compliment A.Johnson.  Santonio Holmes is the best one available in this draft, but he may have to be taken too high for the Texans to get him and still address their offensive line needs.  Whatever the case, the Texans will doom themselves to bad year after bad year if they don't take one of the top offensive linemen available in this year's draft, and begin to repair that pathetic excuse for an offensive line.

As for the other teams.  Bush himself said on Dan Patrick's ESPN radio show this past Friday he could see himself in Jets green.  His old highschool colors were styled after the Jets and Bush said he loves New York so he would feel right at home.  He also said he wouldn't mind staying in California, which means the Niners.  Unfortunately its not up to Bush, and neither of those teams may finish with the worst record, though my money is on the Jets at  this point.  It wouldn't be dumb for the Jets to select him given the fact that C.Martin isn't getting any younger, and has already passed the age at which most NFL running back's abilities have already begun to decline.  The Jets also have issues at quarterback with the injury history and concerns of Chad Pennington, making Leinart a distinct possibilty as well.  However, like the Texans, the Jets have mutiple areas that need to be addressed and with other quality backs availabe a little farther down in the draft, the Jets just may need to trade down.

That leaves the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers.  Both of whom supposedly selected their QBs of the future last year.  Both teams have issues at RB.  The Kevin Barlow experiment has proven itself to be a failure, and Gore and Hicks have not been the answer either.  In Green Bay, Ahman Green has proven himself to be a big injury risk, and has not been the same back he was in 2003 either last year or at the beginning of this one.  Samkon Gado has been a pleasant surprise, but is not the long term solution.  Not that the Packers and the 49ers don't have other areas that they need to work on too, what bottom four team doesn't?  However, it is important to note that they each signed their QBs of the future last year, and should be looking to secure the next most important position after that at RB this year.  Bush should get his chance to stay in California, or to wear green, just not the team uniform he was hoping to wear.   Of course, he could really end up anywhere if either the Texans or Jets end up with the first pick and do the right thing and trade down.  Can you imagine the offensive capability of the Arizona Cardinals with that tremendous passing attack already in their favor if they added Bush to their backfield? Or the Jets and Texans may elect to go the route of the San Diego Chargers in 2004 and select him first overall and then trade him.  That move worked pretty well for San Diego.  The Jets and the Texans both need to take a long look at that, and then their choice should be easy.