It's still early in the 2009 season, but it has already become fairly clear who will be the 12 drivers battling for this year's championship come September.

Here's my early prediction based upon what I've seen thus far this year (in no particular order):

Jimmie Johnson     Clint Bowyer      Carl Edwards

Denny Hamlin        Tony Stewart     Matt Kenseth

Kyle Busch               Kurt Busch         Kevin Harvick

Greg Biffle               Jeff Gordon        

Jeff Burton / Kasey Kahne

If you take a good look you will notice that even after only seven races in the books my picks virtually mirror the current top 12 in points. The only substantial changes are that I have Harvick making the top 12 instead of David Reutimann and I am also am on the fence about Kasey Kahne vs. Jeff Burton for the last spot.

How can I be so sure with 19 races left before NASCAR's postseason begins?  Well, a few things come to mind.

Take a look at history - Now that we have a superspeedway race, a couple of short track races and four downforce events all in the books, the teams that are going to excel (especially on the downforce tracks) have already done so. Perhaps a particular team that has gotten off to a rough start can pull up their socks and dig in and make some progress - But I'm here to tell ya, it's not impossible but it's highly unlikely.

Needs a little more seasoning - I don't see David Reutimann making the Chase even after the nice start he's had. Reutimann is a likeable guy and he's developing into a pretty good racer at this level. I think he and his team will need one more year before they become a serious threat for a slot in the chase. Ditto for Brian Vickers, although he has been around a bit longer now than Reutimann and therefore he should be a stronger threat than he is at the moment.

Come next year it will be time for Vickers and his Red Bull team to make some real tangible noise. I look for him to hover right around the cutoff along with Jeff Burton and Kasey Kahne. I'll be disappointed in David Ragan not making it because over the winter I picked him to make the Chase this year and it looks like I am going to be wrong.   

Kasey Kahne is off to a great start and his crew chief Kenny Francis is a good friend of mine, but the thing I don't feel great about when it comes to Kasey is his ability to be lethal at tracks like Lowes Motor Speedway and struggle at others like Phoenix, Talladega, Daytona and the road course events. To me, if you want to make the Chase you have to be "Good to Great" at them all. There may be a few free passes, but with this strong level of competition, there is little breathing room, at best.

Pretty interesting that after just a handful of races you can structure your 12 best that will dance in this year's Chase. Shows you just how important it is to get off to a fast start. Once behind, it's an awfully hard charge to make up lost ground.  

Where is Dale Jr.?

All this non-sense about Dale Jr. and Tony Eury and blah, blah, blah ...

Here's my take: All you Dale Jr. fans need to open your eyes!

First off, Tony Eury Jr. is a well respected, knowledgeable crew chief. He's good at what he does, he calls a good race and he's got a lot of experience. His driver doesn't make his job any easier by yelling at him each week when he can't drive anything but a perfect race car. Yes, Junior Nation, that's what I said. Your guy is having difficulty adapting to the way these COT cars have to be run through the corners and regardless of trying to control his outbreaks on the radio, he continues to negatively blow off on his crew and pit crew and it's on a fairly consistent basis. 

The problem here is fans are all in love with an ICON. Your love for your guy has gotten in the way of the seeing or better yet, coming to grips with the truth.

Truth is, as a driver, at this level of competition, your guy isn't as good as you think he is and in 2009, he's making mental mistakes he shouldn't be if he wants to compete and be seen as an upper echelon driver at this level. Yes, given the right day in the right circumstance, Dale Jr. can have a very good day and he has. At Superspeedways, it's hard to not pick him to have a great day. But overall, his talent level is challenged when looking at the entire schedule. Yes, he sells T-shirts and he's cool - but I don't think he's got the talent you all think he does and I don't think he works as hard as he needs to beat his competition either.

Case in point, there is absolutely no excuse for your guy driving by his pit stall on more than one occasion this year. Truth is, there are at least three safe fails that should prevent this from ever happening:

1.) Get out of your motorhome and pre-walk pit road before the race starts and visualize you're pit stall in and out. If this isn't cool enough, or crowd control is an issue, then here's an alternative; Study the pit road sheet we all have access to before the race.

2.) The spotter and or crew chief further reminds the driver before the race starts and again when every caution comes out of both the team behind him and in front of him on pit road and further tells him exactly where they are on the race track in comparison to his driver under caution before they are all about to hit pit road so the Driver is very well educated, time and time again, to his and others around him whereabouts every pit stop.

3.) The Spotter calls the driver into his stall from a full ten cars away. Ten away, five away, four, three, two and you're there.....  HOW CAN HE MISS ? YOU ALMOST DON'T NEED THE SIGN AT ALL.

Get in the game Dude!

Truth be known, the pit sign is now used more for positioning the car in the pit stall then an exact stopping point, whereas under the direction of the crew chief, the sign man will slide the sign more to the front of the box when the team in the box in front is no longer in the race or multiple laps down. This will allow the car behind to get out with more ease and is a pit road common courtesy. The sign man will slide the sign back in the box to get the driver to stop short when the car in front is making repairs or is arriving afterward in his stall. This will give the team a better chance of not getting pinned in their box and not have to back up before they pull out.

Yes, the sign needs to be seen, but if the driver is on his game there are other verbal and pre-studying measures to be taken by a dude truly wanting to be the best and not caught up in all the "Other Hoopla". Trust me, I am not alone on this observation about you're guy.

End of story!

Kyle Busch and his temper:

Again, more blah, blah, blah ...

Hey, the dude packs his lunch and he plays to win. Second place, is the first loser in his book. With all this in mind, he commands excellence in himself and in order to win and win it all, he commands excellence in his crew, as well.

If you want to work on a team he drives for, you better pack your lunch and come to play the same way.  Mind you, this is the case be it a Camping World Truck race, a Nationwide Series race or a Sprint Cup race. He really does love all his guys, he's just intense and with that intensity comes a demand of excellence. Frustration at not meeting expectations can and will happen. Not such a bad situation to be in when you look at the big picture. 

A few weeks ago, when he wrecked his Nationwide car going for the lead early on in Vegas, he apologized to his crew and came back the next day and won the Sprint Cup.

He's "The Show" - and the show has its good, its great and an occasional outtake, but it's a show I wanna watch all the time.