How scared is the NBA over allegations that a NBA ref bet on games he officiated?  So scared there were occasional moments during David Stern's press conference when he appeared to exhibit humility.  It's was like seeing Darth Vader in a Depends Undergarments commercial.

Stern is the fellow who has fought and won against some of the biggest enemies of society.  He fought bravely in the Battle of the Bling.  Stood resolute in defending the NBA and college basketball against 18 year old millionaires.  Shook down politicians for new arenas across the country despite holding a hand full of sixes and sevens and nines.  Faced down the Cuban menace.  (Mark Cuban that is).

Now serious people with grave looks solemnly tell us Stern and the league are fearful and trembling. All because one referee appears to have wandered away from the herd and placed bets on games he officiated.  Reports of an FBI investigation contain dark hints of wider involvement by other referees and even some players.  Civilization as we know it, and the dark lords of Nike portray it for mass consumption, is under seige.

Or maybe not.

As Will Rodgers once said, all I know about organized crime I learned watching the Sopranos.  Maybe it wasn't Will Rodgers, it might have been the Attorney General.  He's had a bad year.  But one thing I have learned from TV shows, movies, and occasionally reading the outward facing side of the fish wrap is that professional criminals are practical people.

Most of the money bet on the NBA, and estimates run as high as $100 billion annually, is bet on the playoffs.  Donaghy only called five playoff games, none in the finals.  In those five games, the spread was covered in two.  But one of the games it  wasn't was an 18 point win by Golden State over Dallas that no amount of referee misconduct can explain.  So if we're looking at a fixer, we're not looking at a reliable one.

Nobody seems to be coming forward with stories of 1919 Chicago White Sox like shifts in betting odds.  Although it's early, there are no accounts of windfalls made on games he officiated.   No specific crime organizations have been implicated.  Just rumors of some low level mob involvement.  Which is likely all we have here.

Why would the highest levels of organized crime even want to fix games?  There are amazing profits to be made off illegal gambling.  If the spreads are set properly, there is little danger that a profit won't be made.  On the other hand, point shaving brings the risk of investigations by the government and disruptions in the enterprise.  Not to mention the discouraging effect on the gambling public if they lose confidence in a fair outcome.

The NBA does one smart thing in the playoffs that works against getting to officials.  They use different crews within a series.  Look at the box scores of the Spurs-Cavaliers final.  Four games, four sets of officials.  Those aren't good odds for a fixer.  Better to spend your money on a point guard or other key player who can turn the ball over at the right time, or miss a shot late in the game that might be the difference in making the spread or not.

It is a terrible thing Tim Donaghy did, if reports are true.  He abused a position of trust.  Took away fan confidence in a game millions of Americans love.  Cast a shadow that will stick with every referee in the league for years to come.  Betrayed his family.  But bring down the NBA?  Not very likely.

The wheels of justice grind slow, but they do grind.  The truth will out in the end.  I expect the seemingly enormous cloud over the NBA will fade away before the next season starts and the scandal will start and end with Tim Donaghy.   It seems, at least for now, a safe bet.