Frost and football analysts are appearing in equal measure this time of year. It's the midway point of the NFL season and grimly serious, determined looking men sit before cameras and look earnestly into the unblinking eye to give us the news. "I'm sorry, sir, I'm just back from the operating room and I'm afraid the Cowboys aren't going to make it." You cry a little inside, hope for a miracle, and go back to three hour pacing sessions in front of your TV.

There is, hope, and there isn't. First, remember who experts are. Experts are people who don't coach in the NFL. Some played the game, but long enough ago that 75% of what they know is probably 50% wrong. We're listening to Michael Irvin, a man who might could find us a good time on Saturday night in the greater Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area, but probably isn't the best source for insight into the NFL. Jimmy Johnson? Is there any area of human endeavour you would ask a man with that hairdo for advice? Terry Bradshaw? The cousin the Duke boys never talk about. Chris Collingsworth? The man looks more and more like Reverend Lovejoy from "The Simpsons".

Why, you might as well listen to a blogger......eh, wait, let me rephrase that. In the interest of science, the advancement of mankind, and for a good laugh when it turns out later on that I was wronger than a Republican pollster on Wednesday, here is my sure fire method of ranking the contenders at mid-season.

First, we eliminate any team not at .500. The last time a team under .500 at the halfway mark made the Super Bowl was (I think) never. Then we turn our attention to what the playoffs are. They are games between teams with winning records. So we toss out from consideration any game not involving two teams at .500 or better. Since the playoffs are about home field advantage, we also are going to look hard at who wins on the road and (more importantly) loses at home. Which leaves us with (ranked in order):

New England 3-1 vs .500+ teams 93 pts for (O) 54 pts against (D) +39 3 road wins 1 home L

Kick out the Denver loss at home at it gets even more impressive.

Indianapolis 4-0 112 pts (O) 94 pts (D) +18 3 road wins

We just assume they will fail because they have failed. Maybe not this year.

NY Giants 3-2 145 pts (O) 128 pts (D) +17 2 road wins 1 home loss

Played both Indianapolis and Seattle tough, barring injury may take the NFC.

Jacksonville 3-0 78 pts (O) 23 pts (D) +55 1 road win

Not enough evidence yet, 3 wins were Dallas, Philadelphia, and Jets on the road.

Chicago 2-0 56 pts (O) 22 pts (D) +37 1 road win

Over hyped. Destroyed injury plagued Seahawks, but pressed hard by Vikings.

Denver 3-2 80 pts (O) 68 pts (D) +12 1 road win, 1 home loss.

68 points against 5 winning teams. Defense wins championships. But to lose to St. Louis?

Baltimore 2-2 75 pts (O) 71 pts (D) +4 1 road win, 1 home loss.

Been in all 4 games. The ability to stay close counts in the playoffs.

Atlanta 2-2 66 pts (o) 83 pts (D) -17 2 road wins, 1 home loss

The Giants loss at home concerns me, but beat good Bengals and Panthers teams on road.

New Orleans 2-2 90 pts (O) 83 pts (D) +7 1 home loss.

Will feel better about the Saints when, and if, they win a big game on the road.

Dallas 1-3 105 pts (O) 105 pts (D) +-0 1 road win.

Got to 17 or better in each game, including 35 at Carolina. Maybe 2 or 3 places higher?

San Diego 1-2 78 pts (O) 70 pts (D) +8

In two of the three games, put up 27 or more. Hung tough against the Ravens.

Seahawks 2-3 119 pts (O) 161 pts (D) -42 1 road win, 1 road loss.

You can't live off last year, but you also can't write off last year.

Carolina 2-3 78 pts (O) 111 pts (D) -43 2 road wins, 2 road losses.

Cowboy and Falcon losses at home count for more than Raven and Saint wins on road.

Cincinnati 2-2 80 pts (O) 84 pots (D) -4 1 road win, 2 road losses

Blowout loss (13-31) to New England at home makes me write Bengals off.

Philadelphia 1-3 92 pts (O) 94 pts (D) -2 2 home losses.

Lost to Giants, Jaguars, and Saints. Hasn't shown they can win big games.

Kansas City 2-2 81 pts (O) 87 pts (D) -6 1 home loss.

May actually be better than I give them credit for.

Minnesota 1-2 54 pts (O) 63 pts (D) -9 1 road win, 2 home losses.

Not enough offense to seal the deal in tight games.

Rams 1-2 70 pts (O) 78 pts (D) -8 1 home loss.

Lost to both Chiefs and Seahawks, somehow managed to beat Denver.

Jets 0-3 45 pts (O) 96 pts (D) -51 2 home losses.

Not a chance.

If I had to break this into groups I'd say:

Strong contender: Patriots, Colts, Giants, Jaguars, Bears (?), Broncos.

Might surprise: Cowboys, Falcons, Ravens, Saints, Chargers.

Need to find a direction: Eagles, Bengals, Panthers, Seahawks

Born to be bland: Vikings, Chiefs, Rams

Thanks for coming in, we'll call you if something comes up: Jets.

It's not the greatest NFL season of all-time already and it may get worse. The up side is that some underperformers may get their acts together and challenge. It's that kind of season.