People, I am trying. Really trying hard.

But I'm sorry, the Cleveland Cavailers will not win this series. Cleveland taking this series to six games will be an upset. LeBron stands a better chance of eloping with Eva Longoria. Paris Hilton has a better shot starring in "Penitentiary 3". 

Yes, I said this even before that hideous Game 1 performance "won" by the Spurs 89-71.

There is this part of my brain that wants to make it so. And almost every time I went with that atrophied slice of my head, I lost. Badly.

    

I could give you a deep analysis, such as that famed stat geek John Hollinger, but I have a peeve about belaboring the obvious. Sometimes, Occam's (Ultra Close) Razor is better than any stat. For those of you that missed "Contact", Occam's Razor goes like this:

When in doubt, pick the better team.

 

Fact: Cleveland isn't that good, and the NBA Finals never cut severely flawed teams a break. 

 

Fact: The best team almost always wins. You'd have to go back to 1975 when the Warriors led by Rick Barry swept the heavily favored Washington Bullets with Wes Unseld and Elvin Hayes. And I can make a case that the Warriors were seriously underrated (their roster included Keith (Jamal) Wilkes, Phil Smith, All-Defensive center Clifford Ray (think Ben Wallace with better hair) and Gus Williams), not to mention a weird format that year with a 1-1-1-1 format instead of 2-2-1-1-1 working against the Bullets.

 

What about 2004 you say? Lakers-Pistons? The Lakers may have had more pure talent, but Karl Malone was hurt, and the atmosphere with Shaq and Kobe had reached toxic levels. And the Pistons proved to be a far better team than we knew. Throw an asterisk on that baby.

 

Every other time, the clearly superior team won, and usually easily.

 

Fact: In the history of the NBA Finals, the seven game playoff series goes to the better team - barring major injury or internal strife. Every damn time. 

 

You can claim all you want that LeBron James makes his teammates better than Kobe as the misguided Mark Kriegal did. The truth is, the biggest difference between the two is that LBJ and his teammates play in the pathetic Eastern Conference. Yeah, LeBron loves his teammates. As any single person past 25 will tell you, love ain't enough. In the Western Conference, the Cavs win 45 games - maybe.

 

Yes, Cleveland plays solid defense. Teams that can't score had better. If Charlie Rosen even deigns to read this, he'll hate this, but it has to be said: Some teams try to outscore their opponents to offset any defensive shortcomings, and some teams grind it out because they can't score. Guess which box the Cavs go in?

 

The Onion probably came closer than anyone else to judging the level of the Spurs comp. Let's see:

 

Eric Snow - Can't score 20 in an empty gym. He's a nice defender - he'd better be. He can't shoot.

Larry Hughes - A creative scorer when healthy. Note, I didn't say a good shooter. A scorer. Note, I said "when healthy". He isn't.

Damon Hughes - Looks better in a suit (assuming you are watching him with a welder's mask on) than in an NBA uniform. Lord love him for cashing in on that one big season with Shaq.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas - The slowest big man to make an All-Star team since George Mikan. Nice shot, but did I mention that he is slow?

Drew Gooden - He's big. He scores a bit. Sort of like a poor man's Carlos Boozer. Ouch.

Daniel Gibson - I forgive the fact that he went to Texas, since he's a Houston kid. Then again, he went to Jones High School  - I went to Yates. What a loser. Oh yeah, he's got a streaky shot, and since Game 6, the bar has been raised. To about 6 inches. And he's still small enough to walk under it without ducking.

Andy Varejao - He's taken the flop to new heights - or is that depths? Nice energy guy. Translation: Annoying enough to be effective for short periods. Limited enough that he's one of your seven best players, you aren't winning many titles.

By the way, is it just me, or does Mike Brown looks a LOT like "Smart Brother" from the movie "Undercover Brother"? Or is he Al Roker's taller, younger twin?

 

The Spurs are boring - and look even more unwatchable against a team like the Cavs. They whine far too much. They got a big assist from Golden State (being the worst possible matchup for Dallas), and from David Stu Jackson-Stern in the Phoenix series to get to the finals.

 

They also have Tim Duncan, one of the best 15 centers ever (he's a power forward in name only), and please don't waste my time telling me different). They have Tony Parker torching whomever the Cavs put in front of him. Parker has Eva Longoria. Spurs bring Manu "The Nose that Roared", and Michael Finley.

 Better team? The Spurs.

Hotter team? The Spurs - who finished the regular season 37-7. Both of the Cavs wins came before that run. This series goes five games. My only consolation is David Stern squirming over the lowest TV ratings since the Magic Era began.

I guess I better keep trying...