Thank you for coming to my online Super Bowl party. Here are some initial thoughts on Super Bowl XLI ... 

The big question in Miami is the weather. I just left this morning and at noon it was still raining.

The Colts are favored in the game, but I think that depends on if it is a clean game. Prior to the game that was dependent on turnovers. However, now that the weather may be a factor I think that could favor the Bears.

The field will be in good condition but the rain, if it persists, could effect the Colts passing game. The Bears are a run-first offense and a defense that thrives on taking the ball away. The weather could shift these factors in Chicago's favor.

All things being equal, I think the Colts should win the game but conditions during the game could be the deciding factor.

Let's take a look at some things that could develop during the course of the game. The misconception about the Bears defense is that they play a lot of Cover 2. This is not the case. Ron Rivera has added a good mix of single safety schemes that allow the Bears to pressure the QB. He learned this from Jim Johnson in Philadelphia. The Colts must protect Peyton Manning. Chicago will not sit back in coverage today.

That also will prevent Dallas Clark from running free down the inside seams. The big play against Cover 2 is the inside seam but the Bears do not play this defense as much as people think. The other factor is ball security.

Can the Colts protect the ball? I don't expect Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison to have problems, but can rookie Joseph Addai withstand the pressure the Bears put on the ball? The third factor is the coverage units of the Colts.

Ellis Hobbs had big returns in the AFC Championship Game and the Colts are facing the best return man in the game today.

Devin Hester provides great field position for the Bears offense and that helps Rex Grossman. If the Bears are not backed up all game that plays to the Bears advantage. The wild card in the game is Rex Grossman.

How will he handle the pressure of playing on the NFL's biggest stage? It has been the big question all season. He must lean on the Bears run game and make good decisions when Ron Turner calls for a shot down the field. He has a lot of players that he can lean on to make plays and a defense that can score points.

Do not try to win the game on your own and make the critical mistake.