Thursday, May 18, 2006, 05:20 PM EST
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Baseball]
This year has been interesting, to say the least, as several teams that were considered rebuilding have appeared and stolen the lead for a time. Like Baltimore and Washington of last year, those teams might fizzle out eventually, but I am still surprised by the feistiness that they are displaying. Detroit is currently a half game ahead of Chicago, a miracle to some. Cincinnati is close behind St. Louis, but they already had their turn in first. St. Louis stole the lead by benefiting from a 10 game stretch where they went 7-3 while Cincinnati and Houston both won less than half of the games they played.
As much as I enjoy the teams that are surprising, and I will add Toronto, Arizona and Colorado to that list, I fear that there is going to be a typical ending to the season. The Yankees may lose first place to the Red Sox, but other than that, the only shuffling I see happening is Oakland reclaiming the AL West finally. I have been a closet Oakland fan and have wanted them to shine, but ever since being disheartened by Boston in the playoffs a few years back they haven't gotten it done. In the American League, you almost have to win your division to go to the playoffs; Boston and the Yankees have dibs on the Wild Card berth. Because of that, Oakland has put up strings of wins towards the end of the season, but with Anaheim being so strong lately, it wasn't enough. This year I think Oakland can get it done; Anaheim seems to be struggling and I don't think Texas has the pitching depth to continue.

Apart from those two minor changes, and I still think the Yankees will get it together and at least make it close, all of the other division leaders will probably repeat. Chicago should reclaim the AL Central, either the Red Sox or Yankees will take the Wild Card, so the only new playoff team will be Oakland.
For the National League, I do see potential turnover in the East and West. San Diego is in first now, but they might not be able to hold off Arizona or Colorado. Arizona has stocked up on talent lately, and if they continue to play well, they should be strong competition. Even Colorado has improved, somehow finding a way to pitch in the thin air of Coors Field, and they could still put up a fight. Regardless of who wins, however, I don't see them advancing past the first round of the playoffs.
This is due to their opponent in the first round: Most likely, the St. Louis Cardinals. St. Louis might falter later in the season but right now they have assumed the position of authority and I don't see them losing it. They have had the best overall record the past two years and I think that trend will continue. By default, this makes whoever wins the NL West lose in the first series; they just can't outplay the Cardinals with the talent that they have.
The NL East is subject to change, but I still think that the Braves will come back and win it. They have been doing this for too many years to not be able to now; I see them coming back and playing well, capitalizing on the Mets mistakes and winning the Division. This won't guarantee postseason success, however, as they have been unable to do much in the playoffs recently. Maybe losing the division will help them in the long run; missing the playoffs for one year will drive them to win more, revitalizing the team. Or maybe their young talent will finally be up to the challenge and contribute in the postseason; I don't know at this point.
They may not even have a chance; the NL Central has taken the Wild Card the past two seasons, and this year may not be an exception. Houston and Cincinnati (and even Milwaukee!) are all capable of maintaining their early season success and winning the Wild Card. They are only a half game behind Philadelphia, the team leading the Wild Card chase right now.

Philadelphia has a story of its own; the past two years they have slowly closed the gap with Atlanta. They ended the 2004 season 10 games behind Atlanta, then fought their way to finish 2005 only 2 games behind. If Atlanta doesn't play like it is capable of, Philadelphia might finally end up ahead of them. Unfortunately for the Phillies, this may end up a hollow victory, as beating the Braves might not be enough. The Mets currently sit in first place, and they have the talent to keep it.
With all of the plotlines taking place right now, baseball is an exciting sport to watch. The standings that is; I don't normally watch the games. I find the standings the most interesting part; seeing the ebb and flow of the season, the tides pulling the teams away from first or washing them back on top. I can only speculate at this point, but there should be some interesting battles, and even some surprise endings. What if Toronto keeps the Red Sox or Yankees out of the playoffs? What if Detroit ends up beating Chicago? What if Toronto ends up in first and Detroit wins the wild card, resulting in the first season EVER where neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox play in the postseason? Would the entire league die of boredom?
As for the National League, what if the Braves don't repeat? What if they do, and finally manage to win in the postseason? What if Cincinnati manages to come in first in their division, or whichever team wins the West is able to dispatch the mighty Cardinals? The biggest surprise will be the Wild Card: there has been a trend in recent years of the Wild Card coming out of nowhere, playing well towards the end of the season. In that case, we can't predict anything right now. My words here are completely pointless, and so they should stop.