After posting about Javon Walker earlier, I found myself in a debate of sorts concerning his merit. It intrigued me, as I had a completely different view than the other person, so I am here to research and then explain my point a little better. The issue, it seemed, was whether Javon was worthy of a new contract entirely based on his one good year. I would argue yes, and here is why: A lot of wide receivers may have talent, but very few are able to master that talent at the professional level. My argument would go on: The few that are able to do so, to master their talent enough to be placed in the top 5 in the NFL, those few are able to repeat the process repeatedly, with certain constraints. What I am actually arguing is that there is a trend that exists for elite wide receivers. Typically, it takes about two years for a receiver to get up to speed, and the third year is the one that has gaudy numbers. Once a player reaches these gaudy numbers, they are at an "elite" level and continue to play at that level, barring disturbances. Disturbances are the exceptions to the rule, I will get into that later, but for now the point is just that they continue playing at a high level. In looking at the most talented receivers in the NFL, I notice that there is some variation; depending on who you consider elite, some receivers didn't reach their peak until their 5th or 6th year. I will consider them top receivers but not the model for what I am advocating, although they do fit the trend, if you delay it by a few years. Some elite receivers are actually good enough that they can come in as a rookie and skip the learning curve. Randy Moss and Anquan Boldin are examples of receivers that were able to put up ridiculously high numbers in their first year, while Larry Fitzgerald, Jerry Rice, and Chad Johnson are examples of receivers that put up high numbers in their second year. Consider them all as fitting the trend, just skewed to the left. The sticking point, in this, is what qualifies as high numbers, and what qualifies as continuing to put up high numbers. The first qualification, in my eyes, depends on how high their stats are in their breakout year. The higher the stats are, the lower the margin of error is in predicting future success. The mark of a good receiver is to be able to break 1000 yards, but for an elite receiver, I would say the ability to break 1300 yards. Once they have done this the likelihood of them continuing to put up at least good numbers is very high. This leads us to the second qualification, which is also debatable, but what constitutes "good numbers?" I would put it at a minimum of 1000 yards, with a higher average. A receiver that can consistently put up 1000 yards is a good one, but not elite, but elite receivers can almost always be counted on for at least that many. Using examples, I would look at Marvin Harrison, a consistently elite receiver. He didn't break out until his fourth year, but when he did he amassed 1663 yards. While he was benefited by a pass-heavy attack, he continued to put up numbers like 1413, 1524, 1722, 1272, 1113 and finally 1146. He is the prototypical elite receiver. Another prototypical elite receiver is Jerry Rice, who took only two years to break out, putting up 1570, 1078, 1306, 1483, 1502, 1206, 1201, 1503, 1499, 1848, 1254 and I will stop there. The consistency of both of them is amazing, although they also benefited from being in a passing attack that gave them the opportunity to catch 100 passes. Chad Johnson and Terrell Owens are two others that broke out and then continued to produce, although both had relatively lower breakout numbers than they were able to put up later in their career. Owens put up 1097 in his third year, following that with 754, but from that point on he put up monster numbers and is widely regarded as the top wide receiver in the NFL. Johnson put up 1166 in his second year and followed that with 1355, 1274 and 1432 in the years since. They have managed to show their ability, but they came from a lower pool of talent in which not every receiver is considered elite. Randy Moss and Anquan Boldin both skipped the learning curve and broke out in their first season. Boldin put up 1377 his rookie year, then tore his knee, but came back his third year and put up another 1402. Randy Moss was amazing; his rookie year he had 1313 yards for 17 TD's. He followed that with 1413, 1437, 1233, 1347, and 1632 before getting hurt and having his stats drop a bit. Injury is one of the exceptions to the rule, and a very important one. The trend that I have found does not account for injury, so some athletes come back at the top of their game while others don't have nearly the same ability. Injury should be considered the wild card, allowing some to continue but others not to. Another wild card is switching teams; different teams have different personalities, and not everyone fits. This wild card is the reason that Peerless Price is not considered an elite receiver-he may have become one, had he stayed in Buffalo, but switching teams after his one good year threw his projection off. Laveraneus Coles is another; he was putting up good numbers even after switching, but then the offense changed and he hasn't gotten back to that. Joey Galloway was hit by both injury and switching teams; he can still play, as evidenced by last year, so the talent has not left him. Harnessing that talent is tricky, however, and he has managed only one great season since his rookie team. Certain teams also can dampen stats, as we all know, such as the Pittsburgh Steelers on Hines Ward, or the Miami Dolphins (circa Ricky Williams) on Chris Chambers. They are still immensely talented individuals but their stats do not quite pop off the screen like the others. Another player suffering somewhat is Deion Branch, the Super Bowl MVP for the Patriots. Everyone expects him to get a lot of money next year, yet he has not put up amazing stats so far in his career; he is known to be good by watching him thrive within a system, not by comparing his stats to other receivers. This all leads me back to Javon Walker, the subject of this post. He fits the trend; his output was exponentially increasing until 2004 when it peaked at 1382 yards. I use the term peaked because he wasn't able to continue, but I would rather use the term plateaued as I think he will continue to produce. At this point, he too is suffering from the double wild card of injury and a new team, and his stats will be dampened somewhat by the running game found in Denver. I think he will rebound from his injury, however, much like Steve Smith and Anquan Boldin were able to do. The larger number of his breakout year is evidence to me that he deserves to be considered as one of the best as well; high numbers such as his are indicative of ability, and that sort of ability consistently puts up at least 1000 yards. His talent shouldn't even be questioned; being able to land in the top five in your position, in the NFL, instantly gives you the credibility and vaults you into the top tier of receivers. He was asking for a large contract, and that I don't understand, but I will defend him and say that every talented player expects to be paid roughly equal to their performance. His performance was third; his salary was not. As for the argument comparing him to Donald Driver, I will try to fit Driver to the trend that I just explained. Driver had 3 catches for 31 yards his rookie year, then 21 for 322, 13 for 167, 70 for 1064, 52 for 621, 84 for 1208 and finally 86 for 1221 last season. He took an extra year to breakout, but that is reasonable because he wasn't given much of a chance his rookie year. When he broke out, however, he only managed 1064; a relatively low number for a breakout year. This puts him at risk for relapse, which is what happened the following year with only 600 yards. He then followed it up with the two 1200 yard seasons, which are very respectable, but they show a good player, not an elite player. Javon Walker is an elite player, and while Driver might be a better person and a better teammate, I don't think that he has more talent than Walker. He has different strengths, however, and keeping both would have been the soundest strategy for the Packers. Keeping Driver alone makes sense too, if Walker wouldn't accept a reasonable contract offer, but I don't believe that the Packers gave him any offer when he was asking for a renegotiation. I do not mean to diminish Driver's performance in any way, I view him as a sort of Rod Smith-an unheralded player who performs beyond all expectations. The fact that he does perform beyond expectations is what gives management a pause in upping his salary-"Will he continue? I don't know." He very well might, and I predict that he will, but even if he does I do not view him as a top 5 receiver. Javon Walker, on the other hand, shouldn't have given management any pause in questioning his potential and the expectation that he would bring-only his cap number should have given them pause, and it did. Not wanting to pay someone the money they deserve is not the same as not thinking they deserve it-I don't question that he deserves it, and neither should you. Whether he will be able to live up to what Denver gave him, after switching teams and coming off a horrible injury; that I won't pretend to know, but he has the ability.