This year has been interesting, to say the least, as several teams that were considered rebuilding have appeared and stolen the lead for a time. Like Baltimore and Washington of last year, those teams might fizzle out eventually, but I am still surprised by the feistiness that they are displaying. Detroit is currently a half game ahead of Chicago, a miracle to some. Cincinnati is close behind St. Louis, but they already had their turn in first. St. Louis stole the lead by benefiting from a 10 game stretch where they went 7-3 while Cincinnati and Houston both won less than half of the games they played.
As much as I enjoy the teams that are surprising, and I will add Toronto, Arizona and Colorado to that list, I fear that there is going to be a typical ending to the season. The Yankees may lose first place to the Red Sox, but other than that, the only shuffling I see happening is Oakland reclaiming the AL West finally. I have been a closet Oakland fan and have wanted them to shine, but ever since being disheartened by Boston in the playoffs a few years back they haven't gotten it done. In the American League, you almost have to win your division to go to the playoffs; Boston and the Yankees have dibs on the Wild Card berth. Because of that, Oakland has put up strings of wins towards the end of the season, but with Anaheim being so strong lately, it wasn't enough. This year I think Oakland can get it done; Anaheim seems to be struggling and I don't think Texas has the pitching depth to continue.
Apart from those two minor changes, and I still think the Yankees will get it together and at least make it close, all of the other division leaders will probably repeat. Chicago should reclaim the AL Central, either the Red Sox or Yankees will take the Wild Card, so the only new playoff team will be Oakland.
For the National League, I do see potential turnover in the East and West. San Diego is in first now, but they might not be able to hold off Arizona or Colorado. Arizona has stocked up on talent lately, and if they continue to play well, they should be strong competition. Even Colorado has improved, somehow finding a way to pitch in the thin air of Coors Field, and they could still put up a fight. Regardless of who wins, however, I don't see them advancing past the first round of the playoffs.
This is due to their opponent in the first round: Most likely, the St. Louis Cardinals. St. Louis might falter later in the season but right now they have assumed the position of authority and I don't see them losing it. They have had the best overall record the past two years and I think that trend will continue. By default, this makes whoever wins the NL West lose in the first series; they just can't outplay the Cardinals with the talent that they have.
The NL East is subject to change, but I still think that the Braves will come back and win it. They have been doing this for too many years to not be able to now; I see them coming back and playing well, capitalizing on the Mets mistakes and winning the Division. This won't guarantee postseason success, however, as they have been unable to do much in the playoffs recently. Maybe losing the division will help them in the long run; missing the playoffs for one year will drive them to win more, revitalizing the team. Or maybe their young talent will finally be up to the challenge and contribute in the postseason; I don't know at this point.
They may not even have a chance; the NL Central has taken the Wild Card the past two seasons, and this year may not be an exception. Houston and Cincinnati (and even Milwaukee!) are all capable of maintaining their early season success and winning the Wild Card. They are only a half game behind Philadelphia, the team leading the Wild Card chase right now.
Philadelphia has a story of its own; the past two years they have slowly closed the gap with Atlanta. They ended the 2004 season 10 games behind Atlanta, then fought their way to finish 2005 only 2 games behind. If Atlanta doesn't play like it is capable of, Philadelphia might finally end up ahead of them. Unfortunately for the Phillies, this may end up a hollow victory, as beating the Braves might not be enough. The Mets currently sit in first place, and they have the talent to keep it.
With all of the plotlines taking place right now, baseball is an exciting sport to watch. The standings that is; I don't normally watch the games. I find the standings the most interesting part; seeing the ebb and flow of the season, the tides pulling the teams away from first or washing them back on top. I can only speculate at this point, but there should be some interesting battles, and even some surprise endings. What if Toronto keeps the Red Sox or Yankees out of the playoffs? What if Detroit ends up beating Chicago? What if Toronto ends up in first and Detroit wins the wild card, resulting in the first season EVER where neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox play in the postseason? Would the entire league die of boredom?
As for the National League, what if the Braves don't repeat? What if they do, and finally manage to win in the postseason? What if Cincinnati manages to come in first in their division, or whichever team wins the West is able to dispatch the mighty Cardinals? The biggest surprise will be the Wild Card: there has been a trend in recent years of the Wild Card coming out of nowhere, playing well towards the end of the season. In that case, we can't predict anything right now. My words here are completely pointless, and so they should stop.
This is crazy. This is unbelievable. This is nuts. Okay, it's not really any of those things, but it is pretty neat. The NL West, the team thought by many to be the worst division in baseball, isn't. Not stopping there, every team in the NL West is above .500. That is crazy, and if you had told anyone this would be the case last year, they would have thought you were nuts. Remember, last year there were talks about a team making the playoffs from the NL West with a losing record. San Diego finished the season 2 games above even, ending that story, but it could have easily happened. Even at 2 games above .500, a mark that 13 other teams managed, San Diego was 5 games ahead of the rest of the division.
I was originally going to talk about how everyone was wrong; not just in considering the NL West to be the weakest, but also in considering the NL East to be the strongest. This is somewhat true, but not as true as I was hoping. The NL East had a big problem until recently; only the Mets were performing. Then the Phillies went on a tear and caught up, before promptly slowing down, and now the Braves are currently the ones trying to catch up to the Mets. All three teams at the top are streaking teams, equally capable of losing or winning several in a row, but I think that they will steady the ship as we progress into the regular season. Consistency is key, and those teams have a better record with consistency.
The NL West, on the other hand, is a division without a leader. San Diego has gone through and won series against the Dodgers and Giants, then lost several games against the Rockies and Diamondbacks. All 5 teams are within 2 games of each other, so whichever team goes on a run and wins several in a row will have a good lead in the division. The depth of the division, however shaky its leader is, does keep it from being considered the worst division in baseball. That distinction goes to the AL West, with two teams tied at 2 above .500 and the other two teams left 4 and 5 games back.
While I meant to include this in the previous post, I decided that it merited its own; just keep in mind that it goes hand in hand with what I said about trading for Javon Walker.
The Patriots made some interesting choices in the draft, but their decision regarding receiving was a smart one and spoke of a good strategy. It might not necessarily lead to a Super Bowl win in 2006, but in the long run it will definitely help them remain competitive and the team to beat. Of all the skill positions, it is their receiving that can either be their biggest strength or biggest weakness. Drafting Chad Jackson was a good move; I fully believe in his ability to adapt to the next level and play better than he was able to play down in Florida. He might not be completely successful this year, but next year he should develop and perform nicely, plus he will be signed cheaply for at least a couple years after that. This year is a concern however, as he there is a gap at the #2 position.
Filling that gap will be the key to the season, and the sooner the Patriots do so the better they will play. Chad Jackson is a viable candidate, and the person I think will fill it in the long run, but a more immediate contribution might come from either Reche Caldwell or Bethel Johnson. Bethel Johnson is the long shot; he has not lived up to expectations and might not be given another chance after this season. I hope he can contribute; I am sure everyone would love to see his speed and explosiveness allow him to become a more consistent threat. Caldwell is the one that I think will do well, believe it or not; I think he had bad luck in San Diego and never really got a chance to showcase his talent. Bill Belichick does a good job of evaluating players so I think Caldwell will be able to perform; the General Manager of the Chargers came out and spoke on behalf of Caldwell, saying he thought going to a team like the Patriots was the best thing that could happen to him.
His performance will let us know whether this is the case; if he is able to stay healthy and gain a rapport with Tom Brady, he should do fine. If not, it was a low risk trade, giving the Patriots another body to throw on the depth chart and spread out the defense with.
If none of the receivers are able to step into the #2 role, New England's offense is not out of options-either a combination of #3 type receivers or their depth at Tight End will fill the gap. Ben Watson is the one I think will break out; how many catches he will get depends on how often he is used, but he can be lined up all over the field and is capable of running through defenders. Daniel Graham is amazing as well; while not as fast as Watson, he more than performs when called upon and I think he will continue to do so. Having both healthy and available will definitely help the offense out, and if the receivers struggle, Watson and Graham will have great stats.
On top of these receiving threats and the two 1st round Tight Ends, another pair of tight ends were drafted in this years draft and could make a difference. David Thomas and Garrett Mills were selected in the 3rd and 4th rounds, filling in the depth chart and allowing Seymour and Vrabel and others to focus on defense instead of being backup TE's, even though I am sure Vrabel likes to catch those touchdown passes. They should do more than keep the defense from playing offense, however; Thomas has exceptional hands, making him an excellent receiver, while Mills is capable of lining up anywhere and helping out with his versatility. Neither are going to be the #1 TE, but both are capable of really stepping it up and challenging defenses to cover the different TE options that the Patriots have.
Taken as a whole, I would not be that worried about their receivers. I think that there is the talent to get it done, only time will tell if they do or not. If they struggle, it might almost be an advantage for the Patriots; they will be forced to use two or three TE sets and leave defenses guessing where the TE's will line up. With the athletes that they have across the skill positions, I think that they will get it done; and if that weren't enough to worry about, they also have Maroney to help spell Dillon in the backfield, maybe even coming out and catching a few passes as well. Who knows what will happen, but I bet Belichick will be scheming a lot this year.
One news story that interested me a while ago, which I promptly forgot, was shedding light on the Javon Walker situation just before he was traded. Before I begin, I should warn you that my opinion on this completely contradicts what you may be led to believe by the other posts in my blog. The story was about how Javon Walker was supposed to visit the Patriots either just before or during the draft, but Mike Shanahan kept him late and he missed his flight. Because of this, the Patriots didn't get a chance to inspect his knee and meet with him, considered a good move by Denver. However, with Chad Jackson falling in the draft, the Patriots moved up one spot ahead of the Broncos and selected him, forcing Denver's hand. Whether they might have picked him I do not know, but immediately following the selection Denver sent their pick, the very next one, to Green Bay to get Javon Walker.
Some point to the fact that Walker never ended up in New England-he was traded while on his way-as a great move by Shanahan and a bad one by New England. I disagree with this assessment, however, as I see the Patriots fleeting interest in Walker more of a showing of interest than any real interest. I think the Patriots wanted to check out their options, which they did, but more importantly they wanted to show their fans they were trying to get something done while also pressuring other teams and lowering other teams leverage by bidding up the price of the talented receiver. If the Patriots had wanted him, their package that landed them the 4th overall pick in the 2nd round should have been enough to land the receiver instead. Denver sent the 5th overall pick for Walker, after the Patriots had selected, so up until their pick the Patriots would have been the winning bidder.
The Patriots didn't do so, and I congratulate them for it. As much talent as Javon has, he also has a bit of an ego; everyone who followed the bitter negotiations with Green Bay knows this and has seen it. His behavior is in keeping with his position, however, and I think that confidence in a receiver is a necessary evil. The problem in this case is how he would fit in with the Patriots; an organization that has proven itself a winner even while throwing the ball to several different outlets, not racking up amazing individual statistics but winning as a team. Maybe he would buy into it, maybe he wouldn't; I would wager that had he played for New England, if Deion Branch consistently got more touches than he did, there would be a problem. This isn't the only problem; with the amount of money Javon wanted, there would be almost no way that the Patriots could resign Deion Branch unless he took a cheaper contract than what he is worth. He has not had an amazing season yet, he hasn't even stayed healthy for an entire year, but he is being mentioned in the same breath as Javon contract-wise, and having two receivers with that type of money would make the Patriots suddenly look like the Colts.
Play-wise, it wouldn't hurt us. Javon would be the #1 receiver, surgically repaired knee and all; able to completely dominate a game just by doing what he does so well. Deion Branch would benefit as well; suddenly being the #2 receiver, not seeing double coverage or defensive shifts, he would be open all the time and put up some pretty big numbers as well. While this arrangement would be great, and I would love to see it, I don't think it would last longer than this year. The balancing of the egos, the balancing of the salary cap; everything would conspire to ruin it. Even if both were kept on the payroll, the defense would suffer. With that much money tied up in the offense, something would have to give.
And that's why I am happy Denver assumed the burden. They now have disgruntled Ashley Lelie, considered a better talent out of college, being replaced with the man drafted immediately after him four years ago. They have a large salary, with large question marks, adding to what they owe to their offense. But at the same time, I know it won't bury them; they don't have the large contracts that the Patriots and Colts and other teams have on their offense. This is due to not having a franchise quarterback-Jake Plummer is good, but his salary is not even close to the salaries of Manning or Brady. Even how good he is can be debated; Denver used a first round pick on his replacement this year. Denver also has little committed financially to their running game due to their ability to develop running backs. They should never again have to pay big money for a back; instead they can just make one.
Both of these reasons are why Denver made a good decision in trading for Javon Walker; they have the financial flexibility to pay top dollar for an elite receiver. They also have a very strong defense, while it is their offense that needs to pick it up a bit. Jake Plummer was efficient last year, but with his track record, you can't always count on that. An efficient offense wins a lot of games, provided your defense keeps you in them, while a high powered offense can win games even when your defense doesn't. Combining the two will give Denver a better chance to repeat as division champions, considered a difficult challenge in the AFC West. They also get to reap the benefits of winning last year, facing the Colts and the Patriots instead of the lesser teams in each division. They should notice results, however, and Javon Walker won't be the reason they lose; he might not always be the reason they win, either.
After posting about Javon Walker earlier, I found myself in a debate of sorts concerning his merit. It intrigued me, as I had a completely different view than the other person, so I am here to research and then explain my point a little better.
The issue, it seemed, was whether Javon was worthy of a new contract entirely based on his one good year. I would argue yes, and here is why: A lot of wide receivers may have talent, but very few are able to master that talent at the professional level. My argument would go on: The few that are able to do so, to master their talent enough to be placed in the top 5 in the NFL, those few are able to repeat the process repeatedly, with certain constraints.
What I am actually arguing is that there is a trend that exists for elite wide receivers. Typically, it takes about two years for a receiver to get up to speed, and the third year is the one that has gaudy numbers. Once a player reaches these gaudy numbers, they are at an "elite" level and continue to play at that level, barring disturbances. Disturbances are the exceptions to the rule, I will get into that later, but for now the point is just that they continue playing at a high level. In looking at the most talented receivers in the NFL, I notice that there is some variation; depending on who you consider elite, some receivers didn't reach their peak until their 5th or 6th year. I will consider them top receivers but not the model for what I am advocating, although they do fit the trend, if you delay it by a few years.
Some elite receivers are actually good enough that they can come in as a rookie and skip the learning curve. Randy Moss and Anquan Boldin are examples of receivers that were able to put up ridiculously high numbers in their first year, while Larry Fitzgerald, Jerry Rice, and Chad Johnson are examples of receivers that put up high numbers in their second year. Consider them all as fitting the trend, just skewed to the left.
The sticking point, in this, is what qualifies as high numbers, and what qualifies as continuing to put up high numbers. The first qualification, in my eyes, depends on how high their stats are in their breakout year. The higher the stats are, the lower the margin of error is in predicting future success. The mark of a good receiver is to be able to break 1000 yards, but for an elite receiver, I would say the ability to break 1300 yards. Once they have done this the likelihood of them continuing to put up at least good numbers is very high. This leads us to the second qualification, which is also debatable, but what constitutes "good numbers?" I would put it at a minimum of 1000 yards, with a higher average. A receiver that can consistently put up 1000 yards is a good one, but not elite, but elite receivers can almost always be counted on for at least that many.
Using examples, I would look at Marvin Harrison, a consistently elite receiver. He didn't break out until his fourth year, but when he did he amassed 1663 yards. While he was benefited by a pass-heavy attack, he continued to put up numbers like 1413, 1524, 1722, 1272, 1113 and finally 1146. He is the prototypical elite receiver. Another prototypical elite receiver is Jerry Rice, who took only two years to break out, putting up 1570, 1078, 1306, 1483, 1502, 1206, 1201, 1503, 1499, 1848, 1254 and I will stop there. The consistency of both of them is amazing, although they also benefited from being in a passing attack that gave them the opportunity to catch 100 passes.
Chad Johnson and Terrell Owens are two others that broke out and then continued to produce, although both had relatively lower breakout numbers than they were able to put up later in their career. Owens put up 1097 in his third year, following that with 754, but from that point on he put up monster numbers and is widely regarded as the top wide receiver in the NFL. Johnson put up 1166 in his second year and followed that with 1355, 1274 and 1432 in the years since. They have managed to show their ability, but they came from a lower pool of talent in which not every receiver is considered elite.
Randy Moss and Anquan Boldin both skipped the learning curve and broke out in their first season. Boldin put up 1377 his rookie year, then tore his knee, but came back his third year and put up another 1402. Randy Moss was amazing; his rookie year he had 1313 yards for 17 TD's. He followed that with 1413, 1437, 1233, 1347, and 1632 before getting hurt and having his stats drop a bit.
Injury is one of the exceptions to the rule, and a very important one. The trend that I have found does not account for injury, so some athletes come back at the top of their game while others don't have nearly the same ability. Injury should be considered the wild card, allowing some to continue but others not to. Another wild card is switching teams; different teams have different personalities, and not everyone fits. This wild card is the reason that Peerless Price is not considered an elite receiver-he may have become one, had he stayed in Buffalo, but switching teams after his one good year threw his projection off. Laveraneus Coles is another; he was putting up good numbers even after switching, but then the offense changed and he hasn't gotten back to that. Joey Galloway was hit by both injury and switching teams; he can still play, as evidenced by last year, so the talent has not left him. Harnessing that talent is tricky, however, and he has managed only one great season since his rookie team.
Certain teams also can dampen stats, as we all know, such as the Pittsburgh Steelers on Hines Ward, or the Miami Dolphins (circa Ricky Williams) on Chris Chambers. They are still immensely talented individuals but their stats do not quite pop off the screen like the others. Another player suffering somewhat is Deion Branch, the Super Bowl MVP for the Patriots. Everyone expects him to get a lot of money next year, yet he has not put up amazing stats so far in his career; he is known to be good by watching him thrive within a system, not by comparing his stats to other receivers.
This all leads me back to Javon Walker, the subject of this post. He fits the trend; his output was exponentially increasing until 2004 when it peaked at 1382 yards. I use the term peaked because he wasn't able to continue, but I would rather use the term plateaued as I think he will continue to produce. At this point, he too is suffering from the double wild card of injury and a new team, and his stats will be dampened somewhat by the running game found in Denver. I think he will rebound from his injury, however, much like Steve Smith and Anquan Boldin were able to do. The larger number of his breakout year is evidence to me that he deserves to be considered as one of the best as well; high numbers such as his are indicative of ability, and that sort of ability consistently puts up at least 1000 yards. His talent shouldn't even be questioned; being able to land in the top five in your position, in the NFL, instantly gives you the credibility and vaults you into the top tier of receivers. He was asking for a large contract, and that I don't understand, but I will defend him and say that every talented player expects to be paid roughly equal to their performance. His performance was third; his salary was not.
As for the argument comparing him to Donald Driver, I will try to fit Driver to the trend that I just explained. Driver had 3 catches for 31 yards his rookie year, then 21 for 322, 13 for 167, 70 for 1064, 52 for 621, 84 for 1208 and finally 86 for 1221 last season. He took an extra year to breakout, but that is reasonable because he wasn't given much of a chance his rookie year. When he broke out, however, he only managed 1064; a relatively low number for a breakout year. This puts him at risk for relapse, which is what happened the following year with only 600 yards. He then followed it up with the two 1200 yard seasons, which are very respectable, but they show a good player, not an elite player. Javon Walker is an elite player, and while Driver might be a better person and a better teammate, I don't think that he has more talent than Walker. He has different strengths, however, and keeping both would have been the soundest strategy for the Packers. Keeping Driver alone makes sense too, if Walker wouldn't accept a reasonable contract offer, but I don't believe that the Packers gave him any offer when he was asking for a renegotiation. I do not mean to diminish Driver's performance in any way, I view him as a sort of Rod Smith-an unheralded player who performs beyond all expectations. The fact that he does perform beyond expectations is what gives management a pause in upping his salary-"Will he continue? I don't know." He very well might, and I predict that he will, but even if he does I do not view him as a top 5 receiver.
Javon Walker, on the other hand, shouldn't have given management any pause in questioning his potential and the expectation that he would bring-only his cap number should have given them pause, and it did. Not wanting to pay someone the money they deserve is not the same as not thinking they deserve it-I don't question that he deserves it, and neither should you. Whether he will be able to live up to what Denver gave him, after switching teams and coming off a horrible injury; that I won't pretend to know, but he has the ability.
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Apart from those two minor changes, and I still think the Yankees will get it together and at least make it close, all of the other division leaders will probably repeat. Chicago should reclaim the AL Central, either the Red Sox or Yankees will take the Wild Card, so the only new playoff team will be Oakland.
For the National League, I do see potential turnover in the East and West. San Diego is in first now, but they might not be able to hold off Arizona or Colorado. Arizona has stocked up on talent lately, and if they continue to play well, they should be strong competition. Even Colorado has improved, somehow finding a way to pitch in the thin air of Coors Field, and they could still put up a fight. Regardless of who wins, however, I don't see them advancing past the first round of the playoffs.
This is due to their opponent in the first round: Most likely, the St. Louis Cardinals. St. Louis might falter later in the season but right now they have assumed the position of authority and I don't see them losing it. They have had the best overall record the past two years and I think that trend will continue. By default, this makes whoever wins the NL West lose in the first series; they just can't outplay the Cardinals with the talent that they have.
The NL East is subject to change, but I still think that the Braves will come back and win it. They have been doing this for too many years to not be able to now; I see them coming back and playing well, capitalizing on the Mets mistakes and winning the Division. This won't guarantee postseason success, however, as they have been unable to do much in the playoffs recently. Maybe losing the division will help them in the long run; missing the playoffs for one year will drive them to win more, revitalizing the team. Or maybe their young talent will finally be up to the challenge and contribute in the postseason; I don't know at this point.
They may not even have a chance; the NL Central has taken the Wild Card the past two seasons, and this year may not be an exception. Houston and Cincinnati (and even Milwaukee!) are all capable of maintaining their early season success and winning the Wild Card. They are only a half game behind Philadelphia, the team leading the Wild Card chase right now.
Philadelphia has a story of its own; the past two years they have slowly closed the gap with Atlanta. They ended the 2004 season 10 games behind Atlanta, then fought their way to finish 2005 only 2 games behind. If Atlanta doesn't play like it is capable of, Philadelphia might finally end up ahead of them. Unfortunately for the Phillies, this may end up a hollow victory, as beating the Braves might not be enough. The Mets currently sit in first place, and they have the talent to keep it.
With all of the plotlines taking place right now, baseball is an exciting sport to watch. The standings that is; I don't normally watch the games. I find the standings the most interesting part; seeing the ebb and flow of the season, the tides pulling the teams away from first or washing them back on top. I can only speculate at this point, but there should be some interesting battles, and even some surprise endings. What if Toronto keeps the Red Sox or Yankees out of the playoffs? What if Detroit ends up beating Chicago? What if Toronto ends up in first and Detroit wins the wild card, resulting in the first season EVER where neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox play in the postseason? Would the entire league die of boredom?
As for the National League, what if the Braves don't repeat? What if they do, and finally manage to win in the postseason? What if Cincinnati manages to come in first in their division, or whichever team wins the West is able to dispatch the mighty Cardinals? The biggest surprise will be the Wild Card: there has been a trend in recent years of the Wild Card coming out of nowhere, playing well towards the end of the season. In that case, we can't predict anything right now. My words here are completely pointless, and so they should stop.
I was originally going to talk about how everyone was wrong; not just in considering the NL West to be the weakest, but also in considering the NL East to be the strongest. This is somewhat true, but not as true as I was hoping. The NL East had a big problem until recently; only the Mets were performing. Then the Phillies went on a tear and caught up, before promptly slowing down, and now the Braves are currently the ones trying to catch up to the Mets. All three teams at the top are streaking teams, equally capable of losing or winning several in a row, but I think that they will steady the ship as we progress into the regular season. Consistency is key, and those teams have a better record with consistency.
The NL West, on the other hand, is a division without a leader. San Diego has gone through and won series against the Dodgers and Giants, then lost several games against the Rockies and Diamondbacks. All 5 teams are within 2 games of each other, so whichever team goes on a run and wins several in a row will have a good lead in the division. The depth of the division, however shaky its leader is, does keep it from being considered the worst division in baseball. That distinction goes to the AL West, with two teams tied at 2 above .500 and the other two teams left 4 and 5 games back.
Filling that gap will be the key to the season, and the sooner the Patriots do so the better they will play. Chad Jackson is a viable candidate, and the person I think will fill it in the long run, but a more immediate contribution might come from either Reche Caldwell or Bethel Johnson. Bethel Johnson is the long shot; he has not lived up to expectations and might not be given another chance after this season. I hope he can contribute; I am sure everyone would love to see his speed and explosiveness allow him to become a more consistent threat. Caldwell is the one that I think will do well, believe it or not; I think he had bad luck in San Diego and never really got a chance to showcase his talent. Bill Belichick does a good job of evaluating players so I think Caldwell will be able to perform; the General Manager of the Chargers came out and spoke on behalf of Caldwell, saying he thought going to a team like the Patriots was the best thing that could happen to him.
His performance will let us know whether this is the case; if he is able to stay healthy and gain a rapport with Tom Brady, he should do fine. If not, it was a low risk trade, giving the Patriots another body to throw on the depth chart and spread out the defense with.
If none of the receivers are able to step into the #2 role, New England's offense is not out of options-either a combination of #3 type receivers or their depth at Tight End will fill the gap. Ben Watson is the one I think will break out; how many catches he will get depends on how often he is used, but he can be lined up all over the field and is capable of running through defenders. Daniel Graham is amazing as well; while not as fast as Watson, he more than performs when called upon and I think he will continue to do so. Having both healthy and available will definitely help the offense out, and if the receivers struggle, Watson and Graham will have great stats.
On top of these receiving threats and the two 1st round Tight Ends, another pair of tight ends were drafted in this years draft and could make a difference. David Thomas and Garrett Mills were selected in the 3rd and 4th rounds, filling in the depth chart and allowing Seymour and Vrabel and others to focus on defense instead of being backup TE's, even though I am sure Vrabel likes to catch those touchdown passes. They should do more than keep the defense from playing offense, however; Thomas has exceptional hands, making him an excellent receiver, while Mills is capable of lining up anywhere and helping out with his versatility. Neither are going to be the #1 TE, but both are capable of really stepping it up and challenging defenses to cover the different TE options that the Patriots have.
Taken as a whole, I would not be that worried about their receivers. I think that there is the talent to get it done, only time will tell if they do or not. If they struggle, it might almost be an advantage for the Patriots; they will be forced to use two or three TE sets and leave defenses guessing where the TE's will line up. With the athletes that they have across the skill positions, I think that they will get it done; and if that weren't enough to worry about, they also have Maroney to help spell Dillon in the backfield, maybe even coming out and catching a few passes as well. Who knows what will happen, but I bet Belichick will be scheming a lot this year.
Some point to the fact that Walker never ended up in New England-he was traded while on his way-as a great move by Shanahan and a bad one by New England. I disagree with this assessment, however, as I see the Patriots fleeting interest in Walker more of a showing of interest than any real interest. I think the Patriots wanted to check out their options, which they did, but more importantly they wanted to show their fans they were trying to get something done while also pressuring other teams and lowering other teams leverage by bidding up the price of the talented receiver. If the Patriots had wanted him, their package that landed them the 4th overall pick in the 2nd round should have been enough to land the receiver instead. Denver sent the 5th overall pick for Walker, after the Patriots had selected, so up until their pick the Patriots would have been the winning bidder.
The Patriots didn't do so, and I congratulate them for it. As much talent as Javon has, he also has a bit of an ego; everyone who followed the bitter negotiations with Green Bay knows this and has seen it. His behavior is in keeping with his position, however, and I think that confidence in a receiver is a necessary evil. The problem in this case is how he would fit in with the Patriots; an organization that has proven itself a winner even while throwing the ball to several different outlets, not racking up amazing individual statistics but winning as a team. Maybe he would buy into it, maybe he wouldn't; I would wager that had he played for New England, if Deion Branch consistently got more touches than he did, there would be a problem. This isn't the only problem; with the amount of money Javon wanted, there would be almost no way that the Patriots could resign Deion Branch unless he took a cheaper contract than what he is worth. He has not had an amazing season yet, he hasn't even stayed healthy for an entire year, but he is being mentioned in the same breath as Javon contract-wise, and having two receivers with that type of money would make the Patriots suddenly look like the Colts.
Play-wise, it wouldn't hurt us. Javon would be the #1 receiver, surgically repaired knee and all; able to completely dominate a game just by doing what he does so well. Deion Branch would benefit as well; suddenly being the #2 receiver, not seeing double coverage or defensive shifts, he would be open all the time and put up some pretty big numbers as well. While this arrangement would be great, and I would love to see it, I don't think it would last longer than this year. The balancing of the egos, the balancing of the salary cap; everything would conspire to ruin it. Even if both were kept on the payroll, the defense would suffer. With that much money tied up in the offense, something would have to give.
And that's why I am happy Denver assumed the burden. They now have disgruntled Ashley Lelie, considered a better talent out of college, being replaced with the man drafted immediately after him four years ago. They have a large salary, with large question marks, adding to what they owe to their offense. But at the same time, I know it won't bury them; they don't have the large contracts that the Patriots and Colts and other teams have on their offense. This is due to not having a franchise quarterback-Jake Plummer is good, but his salary is not even close to the salaries of Manning or Brady. Even how good he is can be debated; Denver used a first round pick on his replacement this year. Denver also has little committed financially to their running game due to their ability to develop running backs. They should never again have to pay big money for a back; instead they can just make one.
Both of these reasons are why Denver made a good decision in trading for Javon Walker; they have the financial flexibility to pay top dollar for an elite receiver. They also have a very strong defense, while it is their offense that needs to pick it up a bit. Jake Plummer was efficient last year, but with his track record, you can't always count on that. An efficient offense wins a lot of games, provided your defense keeps you in them, while a high powered offense can win games even when your defense doesn't. Combining the two will give Denver a better chance to repeat as division champions, considered a difficult challenge in the AFC West. They also get to reap the benefits of winning last year, facing the Colts and the Patriots instead of the lesser teams in each division. They should notice results, however, and Javon Walker won't be the reason they lose; he might not always be the reason they win, either.
Some elite receivers are actually good enough that they can come in as a rookie and skip the learning curve. Randy Moss and Anquan Boldin are examples of receivers that were able to put up ridiculously high numbers in their first year, while Larry Fitzgerald, Jerry Rice, and Chad Johnson are examples of receivers that put up high numbers in their second year. Consider them all as fitting the trend, just skewed to the left.
The sticking point, in this, is what qualifies as high numbers, and what qualifies as continuing to put up high numbers. The first qualification, in my eyes, depends on how high their stats are in their breakout year. The higher the stats are, the lower the margin of error is in predicting future success. The mark of a good receiver is to be able to break 1000 yards, but for an elite receiver, I would say the ability to break 1300 yards. Once they have done this the likelihood of them continuing to put up at least good numbers is very high. This leads us to the second qualification, which is also debatable, but what constitutes "good numbers?" I would put it at a minimum of 1000 yards, with a higher average. A receiver that can consistently put up 1000 yards is a good one, but not elite, but elite receivers can almost always be counted on for at least that many.
Using examples, I would look at Marvin Harrison, a consistently elite receiver. He didn't break out until his fourth year, but when he did he amassed 1663 yards. While he was benefited by a pass-heavy attack, he continued to put up numbers like 1413, 1524, 1722, 1272, 1113 and finally 1146. He is the prototypical elite receiver. Another prototypical elite receiver is Jerry Rice, who took only two years to break out, putting up 1570, 1078, 1306, 1483, 1502, 1206, 1201, 1503, 1499, 1848, 1254 and I will stop there. The consistency of both of them is amazing, although they also benefited from being in a passing attack that gave them the opportunity to catch 100 passes.
Chad Johnson and Terrell Owens are two others that broke out and then continued to produce, although both had relatively lower breakout numbers than they were able to put up later in their career. Owens put up 1097 in his third year, following that with 754, but from that point on he put up monster numbers and is widely regarded as the top wide receiver in the NFL. Johnson put up 1166 in his second year and followed that with 1355, 1274 and 1432 in the years since. They have managed to show their ability, but they came from a lower pool of talent in which not every receiver is considered elite.
Randy Moss and Anquan Boldin both skipped the learning curve and broke out in their first season. Boldin put up 1377 his rookie year, then tore his knee, but came back his third year and put up another 1402. Randy Moss was amazing; his rookie year he had 1313 yards for 17 TD's. He followed that with 1413, 1437, 1233, 1347, and 1632 before getting hurt and having his stats drop a bit.
Injury is one of the exceptions to the rule, and a very important one. The trend that I have found does not account for injury, so some athletes come back at the top of their game while others don't have nearly the same ability. Injury should be considered the wild card, allowing some to continue but others not to. Another wild card is switching teams; different teams have different personalities, and not everyone fits. This wild card is the reason that Peerless Price is not considered an elite receiver-he may have become one, had he stayed in Buffalo, but switching teams after his one good year threw his projection off. Laveraneus Coles is another; he was putting up good numbers even after switching, but then the offense changed and he hasn't gotten back to that. Joey Galloway was hit by both injury and switching teams; he can still play, as evidenced by last year, so the talent has not left him. Harnessing that talent is tricky, however, and he has managed only one great season since his rookie team.
Certain teams also can dampen stats, as we all know, such as the Pittsburgh Steelers on Hines Ward, or the Miami Dolphins (circa Ricky Williams) on Chris Chambers. They are still immensely talented individuals but their stats do not quite pop off the screen like the others. Another player suffering somewhat is Deion Branch, the Super Bowl MVP for the Patriots. Everyone expects him to get a lot of money next year, yet he has not put up amazing stats so far in his career; he is known to be good by watching him thrive within a system, not by comparing his stats to other receivers.
This all leads me back to Javon Walker, the subject of this post. He fits the trend; his output was exponentially increasing until 2004 when it peaked at 1382 yards. I use the term peaked because he wasn't able to continue, but I would rather use the term plateaued as I think he will continue to produce. At this point, he too is suffering from the double wild card of injury and a new team, and his stats will be dampened somewhat by the running game found in Denver. I think he will rebound from his injury, however, much like Steve Smith and Anquan Boldin were able to do. The larger number of his breakout year is evidence to me that he deserves to be considered as one of the best as well; high numbers such as his are indicative of ability, and that sort of ability consistently puts up at least 1000 yards. His talent shouldn't even be questioned; being able to land in the top five in your position, in the NFL, instantly gives you the credibility and vaults you into the top tier of receivers. He was asking for a large contract, and that I don't understand, but I will defend him and say that every talented player expects to be paid roughly equal to their performance. His performance was third; his salary was not.
As for the argument comparing him to Donald Driver, I will try to fit Driver to the trend that I just explained. Driver had 3 catches for 31 yards his rookie year, then 21 for 322, 13 for 167, 70 for 1064, 52 for 621, 84 for 1208 and finally 86 for 1221 last season. He took an extra year to breakout, but that is reasonable because he wasn't given much of a chance his rookie year. When he broke out, however, he only managed 1064; a relatively low number for a breakout year. This puts him at risk for relapse, which is what happened the following year with only 600 yards. He then followed it up with the two 1200 yard seasons, which are very respectable, but they show a good player, not an elite player. Javon Walker is an elite player, and while Driver might be a better person and a better teammate, I don't think that he has more talent than Walker. He has different strengths, however, and keeping both would have been the soundest strategy for the Packers. Keeping Driver alone makes sense too, if Walker wouldn't accept a reasonable contract offer, but I don't believe that the Packers gave him any offer when he was asking for a renegotiation. I do not mean to diminish Driver's performance in any way, I view him as a sort of Rod Smith-an unheralded player who performs beyond all expectations. The fact that he does perform beyond expectations is what gives management a pause in upping his salary-"Will he continue? I don't know." He very well might, and I predict that he will, but even if he does I do not view him as a top 5 receiver.
Javon Walker, on the other hand, shouldn't have given management any pause in questioning his potential and the expectation that he would bring-only his cap number should have given them pause, and it did. Not wanting to pay someone the money they deserve is not the same as not thinking they deserve it-I don't question that he deserves it, and neither should you. Whether he will be able to live up to what Denver gave him, after switching teams and coming off a horrible injury; that I won't pretend to know, but he has the ability.