Congrats to the Texas Tech Red Raiders and their fans.  They played a great game with a great ending. 

Though I think Tech is far from being the best team in the land, they played the perfect gameplan at the right time, and the right place against Texas, needing a last second play for the ages to eek it out and a couple of dropped interceptions late.

I won't be a Mike Leach and brutally criticize the refs as an excuse for my team losing.  On the whole, the refs did a pretty good job tonight in letting both teams play.  My only complaint would be the incessant holding that the Tech o-line does.  I can't tell you how many take down tackles I saw them perform on the aggressive Texas d-line tonight.  I suppose any QB could sit back all night and throw with that kind of protection.  But I suppose those were equalled out by a couple of questionable interference calls that UT got.

Though Graham Harrell put up gawdy numbers again tonight, I think it was Colt McCoy who showed more muster by bringing his team back from 0-19 hole to take the lead later with an 91 yard TD strike and 80-yard TD drive late in the game.  Though McCoy's numbers were slightly off from their usually ridiculousness, I think losing was the only thing to hurt his Heisman chances.  The pick-6 hurt a lot, but he rebounded from it.  Right now Harrell has to be the front-runner with his team still sitting undefeated.  He now how to run the gauntlet of OSU and OU.  Good luck there.

Michael Crabtree is a stud on the caliber of Andre Johnson.  Big, strong, tough, great routes, and great hands.  NFL is drooling. 

Tech's early o-line and d-line play clearly outplayed a tired and injured looking Texas line.  Though Texas caught their energy in the second half on their lines, it wasn't enough to offset the many young mistakes their secondary made.  I suppose most secondaries would have trouble against Tech's passing attack, but Texas made some brutal mistakes throughout the game that finally broke their back in the end.

Good luck Tech with the rest of the schedule.  If you play the rest of it like you did tonight, you'll lose.  Develop a killer instinct.  A more rested team playing on their home field like OU won't be as giving.

This past week Texas Longhorn junior QB Colt McCoy announced that he intends to return to UT for his senior year in 2009.  This brought back memories of Colt's legendary predecesor, former all-everything Texas QB Vince Young saying the same thing following his 2005 national championship victory over USC in the Rose Bowl.  We know what ended up happening with Vince.  A few weeks after his historically, harrowing feats in the Rose Bowl, he reneged on his commitment, and bolted for the millions of dollars in the NFL.  Was it a smart move?  I think the jury is still out for at least another season or two.  Vince's move was greatly unexpected, as Texas head coach Mack Brown has a nack for making his boys stay in school and enjoy the 40 acres in Austin for another football season.  Even former Texas RB Ricky Williams, arguably the greatest college running back EVER!, was persuaded to hang around an extra year in Mack Brown's inaugural season at UT, following years of UT ineptitude under the likes of coaches David McWilliams and John Mackovic.

This all makes me wonder if we might not see the same thing occur with Colt McCoy after this season should the Longhorns go on to win the national championship again and McCoy wins the Heisman Trophy.  Though VY and Colt's skill sets and circumstances are significantly different, I think it bares some examining of exactly what they two of have done through the same respective points in their careers, and where this might lead McCoy at the end of the season.

Tale of the Tape:

Vince Young - 6ft 5in, 220lbs, hometown Houston, TX, Madison High School (Class 5A)
Colt McCoy - 6ft 3in, 210lbs, hometown Tuscola, TX,  Jim Ned High School (Class 2A)

Freshman Season:

VY - 2003 - 84 completions on 143 passing attempts, .587, 1155yds, 6TDs, 7INTs, 135 rushing attempts, 998 rushing yards, 11TDs.

Note:  Young was a red-shirt freshman who didn't start half of the season, and alternated playing time with starting QB Chance Mock.  Young's main roll was to provide a running presence to counter Mock's drop-back passing style.  Young showed many early flashes of brilliant athleticism as he helped Texas earn a 10-3 record.

Colt - 2006 - 217 completions on 318 passing attempts, .682, 2570yds, 29TDs, 7INTs, 68 rushing attempts, 170 rushing yards, 2TDs.

Note:  Redshirt Freshman McCoy started every game for the defending national championship Longhorns in 2006, trying to fill the giant shoes of VY.  He was the first UT freshman QB since Bobby Layne in 1944 to win the UT season opener.  Colt would go on to break many UT and NCAA freshman passing records, while leading the Longhorns to a 10-3 record, including a Alamo Bowl win over Iowa.

Sophomore Season:

VY - 2004 - 148 completions on 250 attempts, .592, 1849yds, 12TDs, 11INTs, 167 rushing attempts, 1079 rushing yards, 14TDs

Note:  VY would lead the Longhorns to a 12-1 record and a Rose Bowl win over Michigan, that featured one of the freakiest performances in college football history, with Vince running and passing for almost 400yds total, and accounting for 5 TDs; only to be surpassed by his Rose Bowl performance against USC in 2005.

Colt - 2007 - 276 completions on 424 passing attempts, .651, 3303yds, 22TDs, 18INTs, 114 rushing attempts, 492 rushing yards, 4 TDs.

Note:  Though McCoy led the Longhorns to another 10-3 campaign with a crushing Holiday Bowl win over #12 Arizona St., the 2007 season has been seen as a sophomore slump for Colt.  It's obvious that his stats were slightly off from his historic freshman season, and that his INTs were a Big 12 worst.  However, it should be noted that McCoy was now playing behind a new, young offensive line, and that he played most of the season without star WR Limas Sweed on the field due to injury.  What looked to be a disappointing season for both McCoy and the Longhorns was turned on its head with their solid Holiday Bowl win, setting themselves up for an optimistic 2008 campaign.

Junior Season:

VY - 2005 - 212 completions on 325 passing attempts, .652, 3036yds, 26TDs, 10INTs, 155 rushing attempts, 1050 rushing yards, 12TDs.

Note:  VY led the Longhorns to a perfect 13-0 mark and the 2005 national championship.  He pulled off not only the greatest performance in a Rose Bowl, championship game, or bowl game ever, but perhaps the greatest single game performance ever in major college football.  Vince passed for 267 yards, rushed for 200 yards, and had 3 TD rushes, including a 4th-and-5, 8yd, game-winning dash with only 19 seconds left in the game.  Many thought Vince deserved the Heisman Trophy that year instead of USC RB Reggie Bush.  Vince had the last laugh with his heroics on the big stage of a national championship.

Colt - 2008 through 8 games - 198 completions on 242 passing attempts, .818, 2285yds, 21TDs, 4INTs, 80 rushing attempts, 412 rushing yards, 7TDs.

Note:  More than halfway through his junior season, McCoy is already close to surpassing his eye-popping freshman numbers, along with leading UT to a perfect 8-0 record and #1 national ranking.  At the time of the writing, McCoy is arguably the #1 contender for the Heisman trophy, and has led the Longhorns to three straight victories over top 11 teams, including rival Oklahoma.  McCoy's ludicrous .818 passing percentage is on pace to surpass the NCAA record for a season.

CAREER TOTALS:

Vince Young - 39 games - 444/718 .618, 6040yds, 44TDs, 28INTs, 457 rushing attempts, 3127yds, 37TDs.  Team Record when Vince starts: 30-2, 2 Rose Bowl wins, 1 National Championship.

Colt McCoy - 34 games - 691/984 .702, 8158yds, 72TDs, 29INTs, 262 rushing attempts, 1074yds, 13TDs.  Team Record when Colt starts:  28-6, 2-0 bowl games

FINAL ANALYSIS:

Vince was a special kind of player that could explode for a big play any time during a game, and typically performed like Superman on the biggest stages.  His size and speed are intimidating, even for an NFLer now.  Though he was not statistically outstanding over his career, his balance of passing and rushing, made him a highly sought after draftee.  Vince likely should have used his senior year in college to hone his QB IQ and decision-making skills.  His career in the NFL has been unremarkable thus far, and he has often looked confused and intimidated at the higher level.  However, considering Vince college accomplishments aside from not winning the Heisman, he had nothing left to prove at the college level.  He had the promise of being a high draft choice and making millions of dollars immediately.  This was a very enticing proposition for a boy from a lower socio-economic background whose father is in prison.  Personally it was the right decision for Vince, but professionally as a ball-player he needed more college honing.

Colt on the other hand may be a better NFL prospect if it were not for his relative short stature for an NFL QB.  However, there have been more than a fair-share of successful under-sized QBs in the NFL before.  It might even be suggested that Colt's lower center of gravity would suit his pass and run game better at the NFL level.  He has good enough speed to make the "1st down" gains needed for a rushing QB in the NFL.  Colt's highest asset would be his QB IQ and toughness.  After a late-season stinger injury in his freshman year and being hobbled with a slightly gimply knee his sophomore year, Colt has learned to deal with adversity, both in his physical condition and in his poor decisions in the past.  Half-way through his junior year, he has one of the highest passer ratings in college football, the highest pass completion percentage, and has only tossed 4 INTs on the year.  His grit at overcoming deficits and putting his team back into games shows his "never say die" attitude that is needed for the next level.  McCoy will not likely ever be a Top 10 or even 20 draft choice, but he just might be the type of NFL QB that hangs around for years being an efficient tool and keeping mistakes to a minimum.    Colt could finish off his junior year with a national championship and Heisman trophy, and not have anything left to prove.  His stock would be high like Vince's at the end of his championship season, and likely there would be no better time to test the draft waters.

Despite all signs pointing to the NFL for Colt, I think he genuinely appreciates his academics, college experience, coach, and team comraderie at UT.  He is not wanting for money.  He comes from a modest, middle-class family who could likely live another season without the millions of dollars in their lives.  Where Vince could have solidified himself as potentially the greatest college player ever by coming back for a senior season and try defending the national championship, he chose to move on to potentially greater acclaim and money in the NFL.  Assuming Colt wins the national championship and wins a Heisman, look at what he potentially could come back to next season... a shot at a second Heisman, a shot at defending the title, a shot at continuing the team's winning streak through his senior year, breaking all of the UT passing records, and becoming a Texas legend bigger than Bobby Layne, Earl Campbell, Ricky Williams, or Vince Young.  What kid growing up in Smalltown, TX doesn't hear and adore those names in Texas football lore?  This is why kids come to Texas, to be on that list that's larger than life.

So, in conclusion, I think Colt is the better all-around QB than Vince was.  Though Vince had the greatest athleticism and intangibles that have never been seen in a QB like that.  Though Colt is starting to show the instincts to gut out the big games that Vince had, Colt is not nearly the big play individual that Vince was.  It can be argued about the talent levels of the teams surrounding both players, but I think it's close to a wash.  Both have great offensive lines and adequate skill position players around them.  Colt likely makes better decisions and spreads the ball around more with a deeper playbook than Vince had.  So, who wins the head-to-head?  I think Colt's efficiency and ball control keeps Vince off the field where Vince's big play opportunities are kept to a minimum.  Colt wins by a nose.

It was another relatively quiet week in college football with no top 10 upsets.  The big games of the week were Oklahoma St at Texas and Penn St. at Ohio St.  Both were nailbiters and great games, and managed to knock another undefeated from the ranks of my list.  This next week looks to be a lot of the same with Texas visiting Texas Tech and Alabama going to LSU.  Who can survive the gauntlet, and come out undefeated in the end?

1. Texas (8-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  50%
Key Wins: Oklahoma St, Missouri, Oklahoma, @Colorado  Near Misses: Oklahoma St. 
Remaining Toughies:  @Texas Tech, @Kansas, Big 12 CC. 
Potential Trap Game:  Texas A&M. 
Comments:  The Longhorns continued their historic run through a gauntlet of ranked opponents, gutting out a hard fought victory over Oklahoma St. in Austin this weekend.  It's still up in the air on whether UT started showing chinks in their armor, or whether Oklahoma St. is really as good as advertised.  I like to think that UT simply ran up against another great opponent, and that they were equally skilled teams where the outcome could've swung either way.  The Longhorns will try to complete the superfecta of Big 12 bombers this weekend at Texas Tech.  A win in Lubbock could almost solidify the Longhorn's claim to a slot in the national title game, and a Heisman for Colt McCoy.  See Texas Tech below.

2. Alabama (8-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  50%
Key Wins: @Georgia.  Near Misses: Kentucky.
Remaining Toughies:  @LSU, Auburn, SEC CC.
Potential Trap Games:  none 
Comments:  The Crimson Tide kept rolling this week, visiting Tennessee, and taking care of business fairly easily.  Normally one would consider a visit to Knoxville to be a key date and challenge on the schedule.  However, this year's futile Vol squad is hardly putting up a fight against anyone.  This is definitely a relatively down year for the SEC, but Bama keeps winning and paving their path to the national championship game.  The battle in two weeks at LSU should give a good indication if Alabama is performing heads and tails above the rest.  Florida and Georgia have seemingly raised the national stock lately with smack-downs of LSU.  Can Alabama do the same?

3. Penn State (9-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  75%
Key Wins: @Ohio St.   Near Misses: Ohio St. 
Remaining Toughies:  Michigan St.
Potential Trap Game:  @Iowa
Comments:  The Lions completed the toughest portion of their schedule unscathed, with a nail-biter at the Horseshoe of Ohio St.  This game could have swung either way, but the PSU defense prevailed.  Ohio St. may not be the toughest offense around, but they still had playmakers QB Pryor and RB Wells to throw out a challenge.  Both defenses performed top-notch, but you have to wonder if PSU's offense was a tad overrated compared to their blowouts earlier this season.  PSU may not have to worry much the rest of the way.  Alabama and Texas still have some toughies to contend with that could be potential losses, and any slip up should pave the way to Penn St. ascending into the the top 2 BCS slots.  Other than a decent challenge from Michigan St. the last week of the season, PSU has some time to heal up and get prepared for post-season play.  However, watch out for a potential trap game in 2 weeks at Iowa.

4. Texas Tech (8-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  Very Tough. 25%
Key Wins: @Kansas, @Kansas St.  Near Misses: Nebraska.
Remaining Toughies:  Texas, Ok.St., @Oklahoma, Big 12 CC. 
Potential Trap Game:  None.
Comments: Texas Tech's time is finally here.  They spent this past weekend putting a hurt on Kansas in Lawrence, and building their confidence that they belong in the top tier of national championship contenders.  This week is where the Red Raiders can try to prove it.  Playing at home before a national tv audience against the #1 Texas Longhorns, there is no time like the present for Mike Leach and his system to prove its worth in college football.  Will this be another barnburner, full of offense, or will the 2 defenses show some greater fight that was brought out this past weekend?  This game against Texas begins Tech's gauntlet of Big 12 South brutes.  Tech may be able to prove they can play with the big boys with a victory over Texas, but they still have to get past Oklahoma St, Oklahoma, and probably Missouri in the Big 12 CC.  Still plenty of football to be played.  Don't start cranking up your national championship machine yet.


5. Utah (8-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  25%
Key Wins: @Michigan, Oregon St.  Near Misses: Plenty. 
Remaining Toughies:  TCU, BYU. 
Potential Trap Games:  @San Diego St. 
Comments:  The Utes had a quiet bye week to prepare for a road game to New Mexico this week.  The Utes will want to cinch up their offense in preparation for the mighty D of TCU, coming in 2 weeks.  Utah has been flying by the skin of their teeth a few times this season, and they can't afford to come out with a flat, looking-ahead performance against New Mexico this week.  With potential victories over TCU and BYU, the Utes are in position to leap-frog Boise St. in the BCS rankings, and making themselves eligible for the Holy Grail non-BCS birth into the big show.

6. Boise State (7-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  99% certainty
Key Wins:  @Oregon.  Near Misses:  @Oregon. 
Remaining Toughies:  Fresno St. 
Potential Trap Games:   Any of 3 road games remaining. 
Comments:  The Broncos keep rolling their opponents, and yet you still get the impression that this Bose St. team isn't as good as past teams.  This team seems to be receiving the benefit of the doubt from pollsters who remember their Fiesta Bowl upset of Oklahoma two years ago.  BSU has probably the easiest path to remaining undefeated, but will it ultimately be enough to prevent them from being leap-frogged by an undefeated Utah squad in the BCS rankings.  They may even be bested by TCU should the Hornfrogs defeat Utah. A 1-loss non-BCS squad making the big show would be a first, and would show the level of respect some of the programs and conferences are starting to receive as a whole.

7. Tulsa (8-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  Good. 33%
Key Wins:  Rice.  Near Misses: None. 
Remaining Toughies:  @Arkansas, @Houston, CUSA CC. 
Potential Trap Games:  @Marshall.  
Comments:  For 2 quarters on Sunday night, Tulsa looked vulnerable against a game Central Florida squad.  However, the second 2 quarters turned into another rout for the Golden Hurricanes and QB David Johnson.  This was the first Tulsa game I was able to watch this season, and I was impressed not just by Johnson's passing, but the rest of the game was balanced out with some rushing and defense to boot.  This may be a more complete team than most would think about them, considering their offensive numbers.  Upcoming challenges at Arkansas and at Houston should add some weight to their strength of schedule, and give us a good indication of just how good of a squad the Golden Hurricanes have.
 
8. Ball State (8-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  Very good. 66%
Key Wins:  @Indiana (relatively speaking).  Near Misses:  None. 
Remaining Toughies:  LOL, they play a bunch of directional teams from here out. 
Potential Traps:  The info on the teams on their schedule is so thin, that I can't even analyze them. 
Comments:  The Cardinals of Ball St. continued their run through the multiple directions of the compass this week, taking out Eastern Michigan.  Next up is North Illinois.  I honestly can say that I don't know much about either of these teams, and it's just neat to see Ball St. continue to remain undefeated and ranked.  Can this be a Top 10 school should they win out and win their bowl game?  We'll have to wait and see.

In Memorium:

Oklahoma St. - In one of the better national games this season, the better OSU was nipped by the Texas Longhorns in Austin.  The Cowboys proved that they are a top 10 squad, and have justly been kept their by the polling voters.  It's too bad there isn't a playoff system that could see if this 1-loss team could take out an undefeated Alabama or Penn St. squad, because they are definitely good enough to do it.  The same could be said of another Texas victim, Oklahoma.  Too bad we'll never get to see it.  Keep winning, Cowboys!

Who Loses This Week?

Texas Tech

I enjoy pouring through stats, and with this week's first showing of the BCS polls, I got curious about BCS oddities.  I came to realize that since it's gone to the #1 vs #2 format in 1999,  BCS national champions have had a relative hard time following their championships with continued relative success. A few seasons removed from championships, the BCS seems to be a program killer.  Now there are exceptions to the rule, but most of the early BCS programs with success, are now going through tough times.  Is it just a cycle?  Will these once prominent programs regain their splendor?  Is there really a curse to winning?  Let's take a look at the breakdown:

The breakdown of stats goes from the first year in the new format of 1999 up to 2005 (2006 and 2007 are too soon to guage any declines):

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Jan. 1999 - Tennessee  defeats Florida St. -  23-16 in the Fiesta Bowl and first BCS National Championship in its current format.

Seasonal results since, and bowl comments:
1999  9 wins - 3 losses   Lost Fiesta Bowl
2000  8-4    Lost Cotton Bowl
2001  11-2  Won Citrus Bowl,  Lost SEC Championship Game
2002  8-5    Lost Peach Bowl
2003  10-3  Lost Peach Bowl
2004  10-3  Won Cotton Bowl, Lost SEC Championship Game
2005  5-6    No Bowl Game
2006  9-4    Lost Outback Bowl, Lost SEC Championship Game
2007  10-4  Won Outback Bowl
2008   3-4

TOTAL:  9.5 seasons,   83W-38L,  .686,  3W-5L bowls,  0W-3L SEC CC

Comment:  Though the Vols have had decent seasons, the continued trend of losing the SEC Conference Championship games, playing in 2nd tier bowl games, and playing 4th-5th fiddle in the SEC is a drastic step backwards from the glory days of Tee Martin and Peerless Price.  Longtime coach Phil Fulmer is feeling the hotseat, and it may be time for him to make a graceful retirement before he's unceremoniously canned.

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Jan. 2000 - Florida St. defeats Virgina Tech - 46-29 in the Sugar Bowl

2000  11-2   Lost Orange Bowl National Championship Game to Oklahoma 2-13
2001  8-4     Won Gator Bowl
2002  9-5     Lost Sugar Bowl
2003  10-3   Lost Orange Bowl
2004  9-3     Won Gator Bowl
2005  8-5     Lost Orange Bowl, Won ACC Conference Championship Game
2006  7-6     Won Emerald Bowl
2007  7-6     Lost Music City Bowl
2008  5-1    

TOTAL:  8.5 seasons,   74-35 , .679,  3-5 bowls, 1-0 ACC CC

Comment:  The 'Noles have only won 10 games twice since their 2000 NC, and seem to have lost their swagger since they were waylaid by Oklahoma in the 2001 NC game.  Many have called for the retirement of longtime head coach Bobby Bowden in recent years, especially after back-to-back 7-6 seasons.  FSU continues to bring in blue chip talent, but they no longer strike fear in their own state, much less the whole college football world.  When Miami and FSU were finally joined in the ACC in 2005, it was thought that they'd be the class of the conference.  Thus far, they've both failed to dominate like they did in the 80s and 90s.  See Miami below...

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Jan. 2001 - Oklahoma defeats Florida St. - 13-2 in Orange Bowl

2001  11-2   Won Cotton Bowl
2002  12-2   Won Rose Bowl,  Won Big 12 Conference Championship Game
2003  12-2   Lost Sugar Bowl National Championship Game to LSU 14-21,  Lost Big 12 CC
2004  12-1   Lost Orange Bowl National Championship Game to USC 19-55, Won Big 12 CC
2005  8-4     Won Holiday Bowl
2006  11-3   Lost Fiesta Bowl, Won Big 12 CC
2007  11-3   Lost Fiesta Bowl, Won Big 12 CC
2008  6-1

TOTAL:  7.5 seasons,   83-18,   .822,   3-4 bowls,  4-1 Big 12 CC

Comment:  Oklahoma by far has had the most success during the 2000s and following their NC, having won a NC and played in 2 others, while wracking up 4 Big 12 conference championships and a ridiculous .822 winning percentage.  Despite this success, you still get a sense that Bob "Big Game" Stoops has been anything but big in the last 6 seasons.  Granted that all schools should wish to have the success that Oklahoma has had, Oklahoma and the college football world hold them to a higher standard, and that standard is winning championships and big games.  If you exclude beating Texas, the only other notable wins the Sooners have had in the past 6 seasons were their conference championship games against weak and outclassed Big 12 North opponents.  OU continued the slip-up in big games again this season with a loss to Texas, possibly derailing another shot at the NC game and conference title.

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Jan. 2002 - Miami defeats Nebraska - 37-14 in Rose Bowl

2002  12-1   Lost Fiesta Bowl National Championship to Ohio St. 24-31 in overtime
2003  11-2   Won Orange Bowl
2004  9-3     Won Peach Bowl
2005  9-3     Lost Peach Bowl
2006  7-6     Won Humanitarian Bowl
2007  5-7     No Bowl Game
2008  3-3

TOTAL:  6.5 seasons,   56-25,   .691,   3-2 bowl games,  No ACC CC titles

Comment:  Though the Hurricanes are a recent addition to the ACC, they haven't made much of a splash since joining.  It was hoped that they along with Florida St. and Virginia Tech would become a power conference like the SEC or Big 12.  Alas, the whole conference has sunk into mediocrity the past few years.  Miami's slide is very apparent, starting with a startling and controversial overtime loss in the national championship game to Ohio St in 2003.  Since then it's been a steady decline from BCS bowls, lower bowls, no bowls, and a losing season.  Miami has started a carousel of head coaches, and the off the field problems that they are notorious for are no longer tolerated with the losing.  Before such things were laughed at and swept under the rug as long as Miami was winning.  Now it's a sure formula for a head coach losing his job.  Oh for the magical days of Vinny, Gino, Edge, Irving, Kelly, Sapp, etc.  Also of note, Miami's opponent in the 2002 NC, Nebraska, is a whole volume unto themselves of a grand program that's lost it's NC luster.

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Jan. 2003 - Ohio St. defeats Miami - 31-24 in the Fiesta Bowl in overtime

2003  11-2   Won Fiesta Bowl
2004  9-4     Won Alamo Bowl
2005  11-2   Won Fiesta Bowl
2006  12-1   Lost BCS National Championship Game at the Fiesta Bowl to Florida 14-41
2007  11-2   Lost BCS National Championship Game at the Sugar Bowl to LSU 24-38
2008  7-1

TOTAL:   5.5 seasons,   61-12,   .836,   3-2 bowls

Comment:  Like Oklahoma, every program should wish to have the kind of success Ohio St. has had during the 2000s, and considering that Ohio St. has played in the last two NC games, you might ask how they could be considered to be suffering downage.  I think Ohio St. is down because their conference is down.  No longer is there a better team in the Big 10 above them.  No longer are they fighting for recruits between Penn St, Michigan, Purdue, Ill., etc like they use to.  Now the top recruits automatically want OSU.  I think Ohio St has gotten to the NC game 2 years in a row because of their softer conference schedule.  When they played, they were grossly overmatched both years.  The wins and recruits might be piling up, but I think they may be a softer team than the gritty one that won the NC in 2003 over one of the toughest teams ever in Miami.  The next few seasons may show if this is a continued perennial power or not.  Will the Michigans and Wisconsins step their programs back up again, and create a honing challenge for the Buckeyes, that makes them NC caliber again?  Will Penn St be able to sustain their found-again power, to be a yearly challenge for the Buckeyes?  Only time will tell.  Perhaps a couple of more teams for the Big 10 and a championship game would give them a warm-up "big game" to prep for a NC game.  I guess we thought that "big game" was suppose to be Michigan.  For now, I feel like OSU is less than they were, but that may be because they aren't in the BCS driver's seat right now.  This one is definitely debatable. 

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Jan. 2004 - LSU defeats Oklahoma - 21-14 in the Sugar Bowl

2004  9-3     Lost Capital One Bowl
2005  11-2   Won Peach Bowl,  Lost SEC Championship Game
2006  11-2   Won Sugar Bowl
2007  11-2   Won Sugar Bowl National Championship 38-24 against Ohio St.,  Won SEC CC
2008  5-1

TOTAL:  4.5 seasons,   47-10,   .825,   3-1 bowls,  1-1 SEC CC

Comment:  LSU certainly hasn't suffered any drop-off the past few years.  They even added another NC to their resume, and could possibly be lined up for another this season despite a loss.  This is a program that has found its prime, and is parlaying it with continued success.  The Tigers continue to be tested in one of the toughest conferences year after year, they keep getting loads of blue chip talent despite their regional competition, and they keep on winning even when they're "rebuilding".

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Jan. 2005 - USC defeats Oklahoma - 55-19 in the Orange Bowl

2005  12-1   Lost Rose Bowl National Championship Game 38-41 to Texas
2006  11-2   Won Rose Bowl
2007  11-2   Won Rose Bowl
2008  5-1

TOTAL:   3.5 seasons,   39-6,   .867,   2-1 bowls

Comment:  The Trojans have a ridiculous winning percentage the last few years, and keep piling up BCS bowls year after year.  However, I sense a window of opportunity closed with the 2005 Bush-Leinart team that lost to Texas.  Since then we haven't seen quite the maelstrom of talent and dominance coming from Southern Cal.  Each year they manage to lose a game they shouldn't, and it's not even a big time game.  It's to Oregon St or Stanford.  Maybe this is a king that's grown fat and lazy on it's success, and start to take for granted that everyone will roll over for them.  This team doesn't bring intensity every game for 60 minutes.  They try to let talent and coaching win games for them without the effort.  Before their national championship, you got a sense that this program was feeling insecure and wanting to reattain its glory from the 50s, 60s, and 70s.  It had a fight in it.  Now every effort seems phoned in, and when they wake up at the end of the season in the Rose Bowl again, they see they lost to a little guy along the way.  This team isn't getting much of a fight from it's schedules either.  Like Ohio St. perhaps they need a conference championship game too as a warm up to a NC game.  Too bad there are few challengers west of Texas.  Like LSU and Ohio St., recent success is relative to winning the NC.  If you're playing for less, then your program is slipping some.  This year's roster of Trojans may have a lot of talent, but no one strikes fear into opponents like the Palmer, Leinart, Bush years.

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Jan. 2006 - Texas defeats USC - 41-38 in the Rose Bowl

2006  10-3  Won Alamo Bowl
2007  10-3  Won Holiday Bowl
2008  7-0

TOTAL:   2.5 seasons,   27-6,   .818,   2-0 bowls,  No Big 12 championships

Comment:  The Alamo and Holiday Bowls are far cries from the big BCS NC stage, and 3 losses each of the past 2 years is not exactly what the Longhorns hoped for at the beginning of the seasons.  Still, a streak of 7, going on 8, consecutive years of 10 wins is enviable by any program.  However, 10-11 wins without a championship can grow tiresome pretty quickly.  Can Mack Brown lead his 'horns back to the promised land after getting off to a great start?

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FINAL THOUGHTS:

The 5 most recent national champions (LSU, Florida, Texas, USC, and Ohio St) are still too relatively close to their championship years to have too much of a dramatic fall off.  A few more years will have to come before seeing if the BCS Fall-off Curse hits them.  Florida St, Miami, Tennessee, and Oklahoma seem a step or worse from their former forms.  Is it all just cyclical?  Does Tenn., Florida St., Miami, and Oklahoma bounce back in the next 5 years to become the next USC, Ohio St, LSU, Florida, or Texas?  And vice versa?  Which currently studly program looks to have a drop-off in its future?  Is it just coincidental that those early 2000s programs all starting souring at the same?  Is it that the current slate of champions saw what's needed to be a championship program earlier in the 2000s, and have now groomed their programs to compete and excel in the brave new world of hyper college recruiting, gameplans, polling, publicity, and athleticism, while the old guard grew fat and complacent to basque in their championship glory?  Also, as noted before, where are  Alabama, Nebraska, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, UCLA, Texas A&M, Colorado, and others that were once perennial (conference) champions playing in the top bowls?  Has the BCS system pushed them back, giving advantages to the current champions?  Why are those programs unable to recruit and bring in quality coaches?  Are they stuck in old school regimes, hampering them from growing into the new era of college football, both on and off the field?  I think the program most likely to fall on hard times will be Oklahoma.  However, that's with a big IF/WHEN... if/when Bob Stoops ever leaves.  This was a program in the doldrums before he came along, and he's ignited a fire in a generation of Sooner kids to want to come there again and play big time ball.  I think Florida, USC, LSU, Texas, and Ohio St had their swoons in the 80-90s, but their recruiting bases and alumni systems are too big and rich to allow their programs to tank again.

I swear I didn't think all of that up in a few minutes of scanning BCS results and stats :-)

It's mid-October, which means we're halfway through the college football season.  What a wild first half this year has been with big upsets for USC and Florida, smackdowns for LSU and Ohio St, and heartbreaks for Oklahoma.  Not to mention a slew of still undefeated non-BCS schools, and a little under-the-radar powerhouse in Texas, rising to the top.  This past week brought us relatively little surprises, and only one undefeated went down.  So, for mid-October this was a nice rest and ease into what's likely to be a barn-burner ending of a season.

I've adjusted some key-wins and trap games, as some key wins aren't as key as they once were, and new teams have arisen to create potential havoc issues with any undefeated's chances of staying there.

So, as we commence into the wonderfully burnt orange fall colors of mid-October, let's start with the best team with burnt orange on its uniform:

1. Texas (7-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  Big boost this week!  33%
Key Wins: Missouri, Oklahoma, @Colorado  Near Misses: None. 
Remaining Toughies:  Ok.St., @Texas Tech, @Kansas, Big 12 CC. 
Potential Trap Game:  Texas A&M. 
Comments:  For anyone who thought Texas' win over OU was a fluke, or there were bad calls, or that Texas wasn't the better team, guess again.  Texas backed up that OU win with an even more impressive walloping of ranked Missouri this week.  Jumping out to a dominating 35-0 first half lead, then cruising the rest of the game with backups to victory.  Even the most extreme of homers for other teams can't ignore the dominance of this Longhorn team thus far this season.  One has to start worrying when UT is now ESPN's flavor of the week.  That's almost a kiss of death.  Texas still has big battles on its schedule with Okie St. coming to Austin this weekend, and the 'horns traveling to Lubbock for Texas Tech the following weekend.  This might not be the most talented team to ever grace the college grid-iron a la 2004-5 USC, but like their 2005 UT counterparts, they might have the biggest hearts, most momentum, and the greatest confidence in themselves to go all the way.   Oh they also have a pretty good QB too ;-)

2. Alabama (7-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  Very Possible. 50%
Key Wins: @Georgia.  Near Misses: Kentucky.
Remaining Toughies:  @LSU, Auburn, SEC CC.
Potential Trap Games:  @Tennessee. 
Comments:  Alabama firmed up its #2 status this weekend against a game Ole Miss squad.  Not to be taken lightly, the Ole Miss squad came into Tuscaloosa having beat Florida in the Swamp earlier this season.  So, Bama was not able to sleep on this one.  The Tide still got all it could handle, and may be starting to show signs of vulnerability.  More than ever, coach Nick Saban needs to tighten up this team and get their offense rolling.  With visits to LSU coming along with the Iron Bowl and SEC CC game, Bama needs to start bringing its A-game.

3. Penn State (8-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  Much better than last week's chances.  50%
Key Wins: Michigan St., @Wisconsin.   Near Misses: None. 
Remaining Toughies:  @Ohio St. 
Potential Trap Game:  Michigan
Comments:  Of the undefeated BCS schools, PSU has the best path to remaining undefeated with only Ohio St left on their schedule, to give them trouble.  Though that's a whole lotta trouble.  OSU is playing better and better ball each week, as freshman Terrel Pryor continues to grow and gain confidence, and RB Beanie Wells gets healthy.  JoPa has done an award worthy job of managing this under-the-rader team to excellence, in what may be his goodbye season.  The Lions looks dominant against what was suppose to be a challenging Michigan St. squad led by Heisman candidate RB Javon Ringer.  So long challenge, so long former Heisman candidate.  Been there done that.  Besides Ohio St., Penn St's biggest problem may be being the #3 undefeated team at the end of the season, and on the outside looking in.  The Big 12 and SEC schedules are just too monstrous to keep an undefeated out of the NC from those conferences.

4. Oklahoma State (7-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  Outside shot.  10%
Key Wins:  @Missouri.  Near Misses:  @Missouri. 
Remaining Toughies:  @Texas, @Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Big 12 CC
Potential Trap Game:  @Colorado
Comments:  OSU cruised to another easy victory this week against Baylor.  This team is still a big unknown.  Last week it was assumed that this must be a pretty good team to have taken out Missouri on the road like they did.  However, after Texas easily disassembled Mizzou this weekend, you have to wonder if Mizzou was grossly overrated, and possibly this OSU squad may be too.  The Cowboys just haven't had a quality opponent yet outside of Mizzou to be graded upon.  All of that comes to an end this week, as OSU visits Texas.  Not only would a win in Austin legitimize this Cowboys squad as the cream of the crop in the Big 12, but it might be enough to vault them up into the NC picture ahead of prominent 1-loss teams.  Is it gonna happen?  Not likely.  Texas looked unbeatable at home against Mizzou, and the same home-field advantage plus confidence will be way too much to overcome for the Cowboys.  Also, lets not forget how UT has their number, having coming from behind and dessimated huge OSU leads the past few years.  Texas doesn't know how to lose to OSU.

5. Texas Tech (7-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  Very Tough. 25%
Key Wins: @Kansas St.  Near Misses: Nebraska.
Remaining Toughies:  @Kansas, Texas, Ok.St., @Oklahoma, Big 12 CC. 
Potential Trap Game:  None.
Comments: The Red Raiders put up another near-miss effort for 3 quarters against Texas A&M this weekend.  Yes, that same A&M squad that lost at home to Arkansas St. earlier this season.  Mike Leach's squad had better pull their game together on both sides of the ball with the toughest stretch of their schedule staring them in the face.  Starting this week at Kansas will be far from a cake walk, and Mangino's Kansas D might break their backs.  If KU doesn't do it, and Tech has another near-miss effort, look for UT to break their backs in Lubbock.  Particularly if Tech loses this week, then Texas is primed to put them out of their misery like they did Missouri this week.


6. Utah (8-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  Good. 33%
Key Wins: @Michigan, Oregon St.  Near Misses: Plenty. 
Remaining Toughies:  TCU, BYU. 
Potential Trap Games:  @San Diego St. 
Comments:  ALERT! ALERT! WARNING! WARNING!  The best Mountain West team was not BYU, nor is it Utah.  It's the 1-loss TCU Horned Frogs, who dismantled BYU this past week, to dash their undefeated hopes.  Though the Utah Utes have been taking care of business, they have to be wary of their Nov. 6 battle against TCU when they come to the Holy Land.  Oh yeah, they still have to play BYU too.  With a bye week following a dismantling of Colorado St. this weekend, the Utes can start planning and scheming for the big ones to finish out their schedule.

7. Boise State (6-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  99% certainty
Key Wins:  @Oregon.  Near Misses:  @Oregon. 
Remaining Toughies:  Fresno St. 
Potential Trap Games:   Any of 4 road games remaining. 
Comments:  The Broncos have only given up more than 7pts in a game once this season, and that was against a tough PAC 10 opponent at Oregon.  Though the competition level and schedule may be less than your average SEC, Big 12, or even MAC schedule, the Broncos are silently taking care of business, and may find themselves in yet another BCS bowl at the end of the season.  Quietly, this has become the most consistent non-BCS school to grace the top 25 over the past decade, and it's too bad that the rest of their conference doesn't put up enough product to become a BCS conference themselves.  BSU should continue to skate easily through most of their schedule with likely only a home game against Fresno St giving them any trouble on the blue carpet.  I predict with all of the late season upsets and slip-ups, that this team will sneak up into BCS bowl contention again this year.

8. Tulsa (7-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  Good. 33%
Key Wins:  Rice.  Near Misses: None. 
Remaining Toughies:  @Arkansas, @Houston, CUSA CC. 
Potential Trap Games:  UCF, @Marshall.  
Comments:  The Golden Hurricanes of Tulsa kept their storm blowing hard through UTEP this weekend.  Dropping a massive 77pts on the Miners, and upping their undefeated record to 7-0.  QB David Johnson continues his Heisman caliber season with 21/27 passing, 434 yards, 5 TDs, and 1 INT.  Tulsa doesn't have a realistic chance at a NC, being from a non-BCS conference.  However, they cracked the Top 25 this week, and with a little help from Boist St. and Utah losing, might creep their way into a BCS game.
 
9. Ball State (7-0)
Chance of staying undefeated through the season:  Very good. 66%
Key Wins:  @Indiana (relatively speaking).  Near Misses:  None. 
Remaining Toughies:  LOL, they play a bunch of directional teams from here out. 
Potential Traps:  The info on the teams on their schedule is so thin, that I can't even analyze them. 
Comments:  After a comfortable bye-week to basque in their first Top 25 ranking, the Cardinals get back to work this week against Eastern Michigan.  Yes, let the parade of directional teams commence.  There's no reason to think Ball St. couldn't go undefeated, but rather think, "Who cares?"  You have to wonder why the MAC and other non-BCS conferences are even playing in the same bowl division with the BCS conferences, when no amount of undefeated seasons will ever be good enough to earn a shot at the NC.  Ball St sould win 50 straight games over 3-4 seasons, and still be beat out each year in the BCS rankings by  1 or 2 loss schools from the SEC or Big 12.  There either needs to be a playoff, or put the non-BCS schools in their own NC format.

In Memorium:

BYU - The Cougars fell, not expectantly, to TCU this week.  The Horned Frogs proved that they may be one of the most underrated schools in the nation, having only lost at Oklahoma this season, and they have one of the highest ranked defenses.  There is no shame to losing to TCU, and BYU may still have a chance to reclaim their season by beating Utah to end the season with 1-loss.  Still, for a school that thinks like its BCS material, 1-loss just doesn't cut it, and certainly doesn't get noticed.

UPSET SPECIALS OF THE WEEK 

Missouri @ Texas ( This isn't necessarily an upset in that Texas is so much better than Missouri, but any time you can take out #1 on their home turf, it rates as an upset. I still like Texas to win though)  (CUT Missouri and replace with OSU)

Penn St @ Ohio St

Texas Tech @ Kansas

WHO WILL STAY UNDEFEATED THIS WEEK

Texas, Alabama, Utah, Boise St., Tulsa, Ball St.

WHO GOES DOWN THIS WEEK

Oklahoma St, Penn St, Texas Tech

FINAL COMMENT:

I'm an admitted UT homer, but I'm also the first to criticize and dog them when they deserve it.  This year's team feels more special already than the 2005 squad with Vince Young.  Why?  Maybe because this team was so undervalued from the beginning, myself included, where I thought they'd take 3-4 losses.  Maybe because Colt McCoy has come out of nowhere to be the Heisman front-runner.  Maybe it's because this is the first time in a long time that we've seen UT dismantle quality teams like we haven't seen before.  The season is still long, and the tough opponents are many.  However, this ride is fun, and even if they lose a game or two and don't make the NC game, we can still hang our hat on beating OU, which is all that matters ;-)  Hook'em!